Author Topic: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th  (Read 24126 times)

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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #225 on: April 18, 2023, 09:31:06 pm »
But that still makes Germany reliant on importing energy. There is a large geopolitical aspect to having your own energy supply.

Of course. Precisely.
What makes you think that Germany, or any EU country for that matter, actually wants to be self-reliant?
 

Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #226 on: April 19, 2023, 02:17:55 pm »
That doesn't mean thermal storage isn't on the radar but only for hot water / heating purposes.
There is a concept out there that could do this in theory: https://helioscsp.com/mit-proposes-pv-to-discharge-energy-from-2400c-silicon-thermal-storage/
I'm guessing pretty bad total efficiency, though the output might be utility heat + electricity?

In other news, seems not all German politicians had their brains scooped out when it comes to energy:
https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-energy-nuclear-bavaria-idUKL1N36I0J7
In theory thermal storage at very high temperature could work, but it would be low effiviency when converting back to electricty. At the very high temperatures the stress to the matrials can also be quite substantial. It would also only work on a relatively large scale to keep the heat loss reasonable.

For the idea to restart the residual German NPPs: this makes relatively little sense and also the power companies don't think it is practical, as a restart would take 1-2 years at least.
The plants would need a major revision and there are not even regulations and thus no plans or preparations for that.
The idea of a restart is more like a pre-election idea of someone who is not in charge nor running for the relevant position.  So this is just for publicity.

Well, if Söder would be smart, and the studies from last summer are conclusive regarding the costs, and other issues, than he could initiate a local referendum. Because it would still have more democratic mandate than the Governments Atom-exit. Other states could follow where the last and newest NPPs are. (And just turned off.)
Because the only "argument" that speaks for the current shut down is :" because the government decided to do so".
So if its cheaper to run them for an extra 5-10 years, than renewables on the similar scale than neihter democratic or  cost argument are present for an early shutdown.

But that still makes Germany reliant on importing energy. There is a large geopolitical aspect to having your own energy supply.
Fun fact is that Germany is on average energy (electricity) exporter. So the minimum policy in this situation would be to at least, to agree to not alow energy exports from coal. So to really have that capacity as a backup for emergency. And until the 2030 coal-exit, there is still many years left where it would make sense to import at least nuclear electricity from France (or renewables from other sources), instead of burning coal, if France manages to repair their NPP soon.  But I don't know about any such agreement.
 

Offline psychoacoustic

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #227 on: April 19, 2023, 02:30:45 pm »
At least according to https://www.smard.de/page/home/topic-article/209944/210326, in Q1 2023, Germany had a net export of 8785 GWh. AFAICT, daily production from the 3 remaining Nuclear power plants was roughly 70 GWh/day, so even without those the overall flow should still be outwards.

I also found the projections on renewables interesting: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/ErneuerbareEnergien/ZahlenDatenInformationen/EEStatistikMaStRBNetzA.pdf
 

Offline BravoV

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #228 on: April 19, 2023, 03:17:39 pm »
The Green party is destroying the host ... and also will be dragging France and Hungary too. >:D

« Last Edit: April 19, 2023, 03:23:26 pm by BravoV »
 

Offline psychoacoustic

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #229 on: April 19, 2023, 05:11:22 pm »
Ah yes, those evil Greens...

...that weren't in power when the deadline for turning off the AKWs was decided. It was a Government of CDU/CSU and FDP. It was also their work (with generous help of the SPD) to get Germany addicted to cheap russian gas. Thanks Gerhardt!

Look. Turning off the the Nuclear Powerplants was a _political_ decision. Right or wrong, it's what the majority of people _at the time_ wanted. As others have pointed out already, the parties in power probably _didn't_ think this is a good idea, but they also wanted to get votes from that segment of the population.

I'm quite disappointed(?) by the absolutism in this discussion.  There are good arguments for turning the power plants off (long-term storage, cost, safety...), good arguments for keeping them running (reduction of CO2 emissions, base load stabilization, ...) good arguments for (and against) building new ones.

While scientists and engineers can work out these arguments, it's the job of the media to keep the discussion factual, and thus let "the public" make up their minds. This should incentivize the politicians chasing votes to do what at least a significant portion of the people actually want. I'm dreaming, I know.

But if we as engineers (which I would hope on this forum would be the most vocal) dismiss every argument as either "links-grün versiffter Quatsch" or "paid shill for the nuclear lobby", well, then the base for any discussion is lost.
 
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Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #230 on: April 19, 2023, 08:06:01 pm »
FWIW I think it is a very good decision to get rid of all NPPs. Gas should be substituted by hydrogen and the coal plants should be shut down ASAP as well of course and only serve as backups.

And unicorns are real. where will you get the hydrogen? oh yea, you can get it from fossil fuels or..... electricity
 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #231 on: April 19, 2023, 08:16:04 pm »
@psychoacoustic: I do not disagree with most of your points, but the problem with this energy question is precisely that, as you pointed out, there are good, rational arguments for both approaches. So if you actually stick to a purely scientific/engineering approach, you'll be stuck with no decision. That's where politics comes into play. You gotta make decisions.

But then, once politics is involved, it's a whole other mess. Then political short-term goals come into play, along with heavy lobbying and all kinds of shit.

Long story short, you need politics to make the decisions and enforce them, but politics comes with nasty baggage, including having to plan things on a short term, because that's how our modern democracies are tailored. They have to promise stuff within a few years, while some decisions - like this one - should IMO turn into at least a 20- to maybe even 50-year plan, with a reasonable transition instead of brutal, unreasonable and even wasteful actions.
 
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Offline Nikola Tesla Junior IV

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #232 on: April 19, 2023, 09:46:59 pm »
Incredible amount of information and mis-information on this post.

There is an increased concern in VOLATILE weather.  There has been a decision (non-disclosure) to shut-down many "Volatile Location Facilities".

Cesium 137 has a half-life of ~30-33 years.  By the time it is "Inert" it will have caused more devastation on this planet, then it has seen FROM ANYTHING in thousands of years. There has been an unidentified amount released.  They disabled many of the radiation monitoring stations across the pacific ocean, and "updated them". 

There is much to consider, at the top of the list lies destructive potential. Some of these reactors have been classified to possess ELE (extinction level event) capability. Some believe "The bullet has already left the barrel".  A Process in which can not be halted after a trigger event.  The Pacific Ocean is the largest ECO system on the planet. To sum it up shortly, it is bigger then all the land mass on earth combined, it ultimately controls worldwide currents and interconnects throughout the entire world through them. It contributes monumentally to Global weather, Food chains, ETC.

Of all the things discussed in this thread, they pale in comparison to the destructive potential contained within nuclear reactors,  which absolutely must be considered. 




 

Online coppercone2

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #233 on: April 19, 2023, 10:09:59 pm »
well hopefully they will get rid of those ceasium gauges and implement more ultrasonic sensors. Developments in ultrasonic can maybe get rid of some radioactive measurement equipment that always seems to have its physics package go missing. The poster above is referencing to the ceasium canister that was apparently smelted by accident in thailand and sent dust to god knows where

for flow measurement it seems like a brute force caveman solution TBH
« Last Edit: April 19, 2023, 10:11:51 pm by coppercone2 »
 

Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #234 on: April 20, 2023, 03:09:35 pm »
Ah yes, those evil Greens...

...that weren't in power when the deadline for turning off the AKWs was decided. It was a Government of CDU/CSU and FDP. It was also their work (with generous help of the SPD) to get Germany addicted to cheap russian gas. Thanks Gerhardt!

Look. Turning off the the Nuclear Powerplants was a _political_ decision. Right or wrong, it's what the majority of people _at the time_ wanted. As others have pointed out already, the parties in power probably _didn't_ think this is a good idea, but they also wanted to get votes from that segment of the population.

I'm quite disappointed(?) by the absolutism in this discussion.  There are good arguments for turning the power plants off (long-term storage, cost, safety...), good arguments for keeping them running (reduction of CO2 emissions, base load stabilization, ...) good arguments for (and against) building new ones.

While scientists and engineers can work out these arguments, it's the job of the media to keep the discussion factual, and thus let "the public" make up their minds. This should incentivize the politicians chasing votes to do what at least a significant portion of the people actually want. I'm dreaming, I know.

But if we as engineers (which I would hope on this forum would be the most vocal) dismiss every argument as either "links-grün versiffter Quatsch" or "paid shill for the nuclear lobby", well, then the base for any discussion is lost.
I agreed in 2011 with the atom-exit. But during the years we have seen failures which were not corrected to the proper extent. (Coal staying in the system.) And the storage solution for the renewables not in planning.

We most of the time here discussed quiet factually the CURRENT situation not whether it was a good decision more than ten years ago. Every government can correct course in emergency cases as the german government also did that with the military but not with the nuclear energy.

There were two arguments for keeping the course:
1. It might be not possible to run the plants longer, or not "economical".
2. The majority does not want to run them longer doesn't matter the circumstances.

BUT: 1.It seems that it is possible to run them longer, even if not for just 1-2 years, and it seems to economical as well, at least no one could show here the docs from last year how much that would cost to prove the contrary.
2.The german government did not ask the people officially what they think.
(Sorry but asking 1000 peoples oppinion is not the way to do it, otherwise no one would run complicated elections.)
But if someone wants Facebook , Twitter and the rest to run a country, this is the way to do it.
I am only waiting for the day when some other ridiculous group will come up with the idea that every people should have three arms, and than governments will jump on it because the "majority" likes the idea.

"The public making up their mind":
Well, that is the case in Switzerland, where the population is being asked about the main  issues. In Germany the population is never asked about any actual major decision, only about the the few faces to rule.
In some other countries at least there are a few referendums some times, like in Sweden the people were asked in a referendum about the nuclear exit. Or in Holland there was a referendum about the Ukraine to bacame some associated EU member.

So the problem is not how democracy works, but how most of the democratic countries are actually pseudo democratic, where no one actually knows which decisions are supported by the majority.

 
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Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #235 on: April 20, 2023, 05:58:20 pm »
The problem is that the general population are not qualified or competent to take technical decisions. So if you want to hold a referendum on how energy is produced there should have been some caveats. So apparently nuclear is not nice, did they also agree that coal is not nice?. So lets say people who have no business in the energy industry get to decide how it should operate. Should these people not be made responsible for those decisions?

I would assume that the logic is:

1) nuclear bad
2) coal bad
3) gas not good
4) buying gas from a war mongering nation - unacceptable.

Given those assumed circumstances to be reasonable and what people voted on do those that want nuclear shut down now accept to live without the electricity they did not want generated.

It's all well and good people getting to make a decision, but they should also be responsible in the face of the consequences.

It's a bit like our MD, we tell him that engineering need 4 weeks to develop the project, he comes back from the customer and tells us they want it in 2, why are we supposed to try the impossible?

Now that the energy system has just been rendered even more polluting than it was do those people who voted for this care? or do they live in a bubble unburst by the fact that the problems they created are now someone elses?
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #236 on: April 20, 2023, 09:19:03 pm »
The best approach is the one I use for customers as well: Don't build what they want, but build what they need. In the end politics works the same if you look closely.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #237 on: April 21, 2023, 11:51:12 am »
The problem is that the general population are not qualified or competent to take technical decisions. So if you want to hold a referendum on how energy is produced there should have been some caveats. So apparently nuclear is not nice, did they also agree that coal is not nice?. So lets say people who have no business in the energy industry get to decide how it should operate. Should these people not be made responsible for those decisions?

I would assume that the logic is:

1) nuclear bad
2) coal bad
3) gas not good
4) buying gas from a war mongering nation - unacceptable.

Given those assumed circumstances to be reasonable and what people voted on do those that want nuclear shut down now accept to live without the electricity they did not want generated.

It's all well and good people getting to make a decision, but they should also be responsible in the face of the consequences.

It's a bit like our MD, we tell him that engineering need 4 weeks to develop the project, he comes back from the customer and tells us they want it in 2, why are we supposed to try the impossible?

Now that the energy system has just been rendered even more polluting than it was do those people who voted for this care? or do they live in a bubble unburst by the fact that the problems they created are now someone elses?
And are the general politicians competent enough to make such decision? Usually a buch of lawyers, sometimes not even that.
What happens is, that a small number of "experts" (unaccountable) sits down with the politician
and tell them what they think.
Now if we accept that, than acually we could give up the whole concept of democracy because also
in dictatorships things work quiet similarly. Don't think that the dictators never ask anyone!
The dictator always knows best what is good for the public, and is working towards that goal,
and the dumb population of course don't know shit but the great leaders.


And of course you can wote down the politician, but does anybody ever know what the actual reason among
dozens of decisions was, which caused a party to loose an election?

And there IS an example of democracy, and it is working quiet well, much better than most of the pseudo
democracies in every aspect. I don't see there nonsense decisions.
Edit: How does it work? The same experts and many more tell the public their oppinion, and just like the politicians the people are making up their mind.
And I bet if people would have a say about big issues in Europe in the last 10 years we would be much better off.

"4) buying gas from a war mongering nation - unacceptable."
I have to add here that the Iraq war was causing more death than the Ukrainian so far, but it is OK to buy from the US now or energy (oil) from Britain. So in a few years this is not going be an issue I suppose. There wasn't even a sigle sanction back than. And this why now some people wonder sometimes about the high moral ground of some countries.
But to be on a bit: Blowing up the gas pipes was not  a german decision, the gas from there would have been enough to substitute the nuclear plants. Only the stop of the NS2 usage was a political decision, and stopping the oil import but that is not used to generate electricity.



"It's all well and good people getting to make a decision, but they should also be responsible in the face of the consequences."

And does now anybody faces the consequences in the current systems? Any politician ever had to pay back billions when he made a wrong decision? No. Maybe loosing job, and having an extreme high income level after it. Basically no consequences.
Look at the case with Dizzy Lizzy! How much is she paying back or having any consequences of her decision? Nothing.

"Given those assumed circumstances to be reasonable and what people voted on do those that want nuclear shut down now accept to live without the electricity they did not want generated."
They didn't even vote 12 years ago, but now there is an emergency situation. And we don't know what the public wants, but the stupid decision was made by the expert politicians. NOT by the people.
(As far as I know even the oppinion polls are telling that the population would liked to keep the remaining NPP for a while, but they werr not asked.)


But democracy is not about making the best decision(what is the best decision, how do you measure it?), but to decide to do what the public wants. It has its faults, but it still works better than anything else.  And the consequences is always beared by the common people collectively called society both in democracies, and in dictatorships as well.

The best approach is the one I use for customers as well: Don't build what they want, but build what they need. In the end politics works the same if you look closely.
I am quiet sure that most dictators are thinking doing the same. Not sure if the dumb uninformed non-expert russians would be asked, the war would still going on.

« Last Edit: April 21, 2023, 11:55:08 am by Neutrion »
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #238 on: April 21, 2023, 03:41:17 pm »
my point is that Joe Bloggs does not have a clue what he is actually making a decision on, to the point that he thinks the decision is helping him when it could be harming him and his fellow countrymen. My point is that there is one result of this, the energy system will produce more greenhouse gas emissions, this hurts everyone and is not necessarily cheaper so it is a loose loose choice. Now there is a way to redress this. If less power is required then there is less need for carbon emitting generators to be used and the price also drops due to lower demand. So those who voted to turn off the power should go without power! Then they might take a serious interest in how this woks and start to understand the realities.
 

Offline switchabl

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #239 on: April 21, 2023, 04:57:18 pm »
My point is that there is one result of this, the energy system will produce more greenhouse gas emissions, this hurts everyone and is not necessarily cheaper so it is a loose loose choice.

Call me a cynic but I strongly suspect that politically the one result of keeping nuclear power would have been less PV and wind, not less coal and an energy system with broadly the same CO2 emissions (potentially at somewhat lower prices). In Germany, coal is not just about energy, it is about mining jobs (and voters).

(And to be fair the energy sector is actually on track to meet reduction goals, at least for now.)
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #240 on: April 21, 2023, 05:08:36 pm »
Well what is the nuclear to be replaced with?
 

Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #241 on: April 21, 2023, 05:19:28 pm »
my point is that Joe Bloggs does not have a clue what he is actually making a decision on, to the point that he thinks the decision is helping him when it could be harming him and his fellow countrymen. My point is that there is one result of this, the energy system will produce more greenhouse gas emissions, this hurts everyone and is not necessarily cheaper so it is a loose loose choice. Now there is a way to redress this. If less power is required then there is less need for carbon emitting generators to be used and the price also drops due to lower demand. So those who voted to turn off the power should go without power! Then they might take a serious interest in how this woks and start to understand the realities.

But the same applies for the politician. When Ms Baerbock doesn't even get the gimnasium level math,
what kind of more expert tech oppinion can she have than Joe Bloggs?
So everything you mentioned also applies for the politician.
And again the german population is not allowed to vote on any issue,(I would really like to hear the reasoning when some expert explains why the germans are collectively more stupid than any other European nation. :)  )  so they did not vote on anything,
expert politicians voted for them in this case obviously against the peoples will it seems.
(Only local referendums are allowed in Germany.)

So I agree with you that those POLITICIANS who woted for this, should bear the consequences(and that of all the other issues by moving to certain part of Berlin), and use no electricity anymore, but it won't solve the actual situation.


If you read the swiss press, you will see that until a referendum comes, most people probably read more
articles and studies, debates than the "consulted with experts" politicians in other countries.

My point is that there is one result of this, the energy system will produce more greenhouse gas emissions, this hurts everyone and is not necessarily cheaper so it is a loose loose choice.

Call me a cynic but I strongly suspect that politically the one result of keeping nuclear power would have been less PV and wind, not less coal and an energy system with broadly the same CO2 emissions (potentially at somewhat lower prices). In Germany, coal is not just about energy, it is about mining jobs (and voters).

(And to be fair the energy sector is actually on track to meet reduction goals, at least for now.)
Why should it be like that? It can be done better. And the coal -exit is already decided.
There are many more voters who don't want coal. There is money for hundredthousands of uneducated from Africa fleeing into the country who don't even speak the language, so I bet  there must be some money left for the few thousand german coal workers as well.
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #242 on: April 21, 2023, 05:30:52 pm »
I am confused. I was led to beleive that the people voted for this. There is a difference theoretically between the people and the politicians. Politicians are supposed to follow a due process and listen to the expects. Theoretically we know that they at least did this before deciding. When it comes to the people we all know what doing their own research means for many.... people won't be obliged to listen to proper experts so I am still very wary of letting "people" decide. Sadly the average person is not that clever.
 

Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #243 on: April 21, 2023, 05:48:00 pm »
I am confused. I was led to beleive that the people voted for this. There is a difference theoretically between the people and the politicians. Politicians are supposed to follow a due process and listen to the expects. Theoretically we know that they at least did this before deciding. When it comes to the people we all know what doing their own research means for many.... people won't be obliged to listen to proper experts so I am still very wary of letting "people" decide. Sadly the average person is not that clever.
And what is the guarantee that a politician understands anythig the expert says? What is the guarantee, that a very broad spectrum of experts are consulted, instead of a lobby group? That there is a debate?

Dictatorships are basically based on your argumentation. No joke.

And the only example wehere this (let the people decide) system is working is Switzerland. I don't see them as hopeless. Rather the pseudo democracies. I see big changes in Europe which are qiet possibly against the will of the population.

And if you would mention the big democratic trauma, the  BRRRR...  you know what :) . The problem there was rather not having to have a second voting, when the circumstances were clear. If people still would wanted to have it, they could have voted accordingly.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2023, 05:50:48 pm by Neutrion »
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #244 on: April 21, 2023, 06:01:21 pm »

And what is the guarantee that a politician understands anythig the expert says? What is the guarantee, that a very broad spectrum of experts are consulted, instead of a lobby group? That there is a debate?

Dictatorships are basically based on your argumentation. No joke.

And the only example wehere this (let the people decide) system is working is Switzerland. I don't see them as hopeless. Rather the pseudo democracies. I see big changes in Europe which are qiet possibly against the will of the population.

And if you would mention the big democratic trauma, the  BRRRR...  you know what :) . The problem there was rather not having to have a second voting, when the circumstances were clear. If people still would wanted to have it, they could have voted accordingly.


I am not saying that the politicians would get it right, but at least there would be some semblance of trying and this would be publicly scrutinized even if through later leaks. But I have no confidence at all in a democratic vote.

People seem to confuse democracy with what is right. Just because it is what the majority wanted does not make it right. the majority are never going to be knowledgeable on the issue so the result will be just pop luck, no better than the politicians.

Yes I am scared by a recent vote where even I voted the wrong way. I am not angry with those that told lies and I did not vote on those anyway. I am angry with those that just said: "this is a really bad idea - trust us". The result was I did not. I did try to seek out information but as a simple citizen with limited time and not knowing where to start it was impossible. Did any news channels bother to make programs that just explained the facts? NO! did anyone make say a YouTube series that gave information? NO! All we got was debates between people with opinions praying on peoples fears, at no point did someone say: "look guys it works like this, now make up your own mind if you think this is worth while. Now if we change you get this, now make up your minds if that is what you want". No the public discourse was reduced to political silos having a mud slinging match in an attempt to scare people to vote one way or the other.

I doubt very much that any issue or debate would be held properly, it's just .... people..... 90% are too stupid to know what is good for them. That is after all the reason why we have a political system, someone has to make the decision. OK you don't like those politicians, but, the majority voted for them so basically truth and reasonableness are fucked either way.
 

Offline switchabl

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #245 on: April 21, 2023, 06:08:34 pm »
Well what is the nuclear to be replaced with?

Between 2010 and 2020 nuclear energy production has gone down from 141 TWh to 64 TWh (and will presumably drop to 0 in 2024), at the same time renewable energies have increased from 106 TWh to 250 TWh. So I guess in a way it has been replaced already? I would personally have preferred to phase out coal first, I'm just not sure that was ever on the table.

I am confused. I was led to beleive that the people voted for this.

There was never a referendum if that is what you mean. In 2000, a social democrat/green coalition goverment first decided to phase out nuclear energy by around 2020 and change to PV and wind. A conservative government reversed that plan in 2010, then more or less reinstated it in 2011... Last year, the last 3 remaining plants were due to be decomissioned but after much debate it was decided to move the deadline by a few months because of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the fear that there might be energy shortages during the winter.
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #246 on: April 21, 2023, 06:16:19 pm »
Last year, the last 3 remaining plants were due to be decomissioned but after much debate it was decided to move the deadline by a few months because of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the fear that there might be energy shortages during the winter.

because in a few months they will be able to make up the difference? Well like I said, politicians - no better than the average person.

So Germany now has lots of storage then? or is there enough gas to act as the fast acting compensator in the system? Or are they going to over install so much wind and solar that they can never not have enough but most of the time have much more than needed.

Let me guess, the shortfall will come from french nuclear :)
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #247 on: April 21, 2023, 06:40:55 pm »
Well what is the nuclear to be replaced with?

You fail to find a sensible answer, because the question itself is a loaded question ("have you stopped beating your wife" question), and loaded with wrong information.

The correct question is, "what was the nuclear replaced with", and the answer is trivial to see from this graph alone (you need to extrapolate mentally a bit because the data does not show nuclear going to all zero, but it should not be hard to see since what replaced nuclear went up way before): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:Germany_electricity_production.svg
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #248 on: April 21, 2023, 06:58:08 pm »
I do not say "was" as in the energy system what matters is now, in this half of the 50Hz cycle where is the power coming from. You either have it all or you have non of it.

Nuclear is a certain source. If you remembered to turn it on, it will be making power. You can't entirely guarantee renewables. So as I said earlier if renewables are taking the place of nuclear then you need to have built much more capacity. So you are reliant on coal and for fast response gas, if pyou can get it. Shutting down nuclear is a really bad idea, you can't just flick it back on if it's starting to look  bit sticky.
 
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Offline Kleinstein

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #249 on: April 21, 2023, 07:58:46 pm »
The extension for a few months was as this was winter and thus the highest demand over the year.  From the start is was a stupid idea to set the deadline to the end of the year, when the demand is near (or just before) its peak. An end date in march or april is the natural choice. By april the demand is down and the PV production is quite a bit higher.

The old fuel still in the plants could still deliver some power for the extension, though already not full power in some of the plants and reducing the power power already in october. The extension was more about adding capacity in the critical part of the year, not so much to produce much extra energy. A longer extension would definitely need new fuel rods. The other point is that the regulations (German and EU wide) require a rather high level revision / inspection. Already the 3 extra months were a somewhat dubious extension of the extension of the dead line.  With new fuel and the overdue major revisions and upgrades other extension of the plant life does not come as cheap. To be somewhat economical this would need to be for quite some time, like 10 years. Already the fuel rods usually last some 4 years or so ideally mixing different ages.
In my opinion it is just too late to change the mind on this. Personal for maintainace likely has new jobs or is retired with no new generation trained. Only 3 reactors is also not very much to sustain the extra infrastructure (certified experts to do repairs and inspections, spare part production,...) that comes with this type of reactor. The time to revise the decision was some 5 years ago.

Between 2010 and 2020 nuclear energy production has gone down from 141 TWh to 64 TWh (and will presumably drop to 0 in 2024), at the same time renewable energies have increased from 106 TWh to 250 TWh. So I guess in a way it has been replaced already? I would personally have preferred to phase out coal first, I'm just not sure that was ever on the table.
There was the discussion wether to first phase out coal or first nuclear. There was kind of the hope to get both and to a certain degree it worked that way with a slight increased use of natural gas. The use of coal is down from the 2010 or 2015 level quite a bit, even though the build up of wind and PV slowed down a bit by about 2017.  Phasing out coal, especially the dirty German brown coal was not that popular because it is linked to local jobs.

Nuclear is a certain source. If you remembered to turn it on, it will be making power. You can't entirely guarantee renewables.
Nuclear power is not that certain, especially not if from a few reactors of the same type.  There have been cases of a common design flaw that would require a shutdown of all reactors of the same type.
AFAIR Japan did the full shutdown in 2011, while the US failed and took the risk and keept quite some NPPs with known design flaws running.

The other problem in the combination of nuclear with renewables is that nuclear is made to run nearly 24/7 while the current level of renewable is capable to supply 100% at times. The capacity is also relatively limited.  To compensate for short time demand there where a few gas powerd power stations added. Another point are interchange connections to Norway and Austria, that allow for extra peak power from hydro. They also finally started to no longer run the bio-methane plants 24/7 but with some control - though still too little. So far Germany can still provide reseve power to France, though at the costs of more coal used.
 


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