Author Topic: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th  (Read 24120 times)

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Offline switchabl

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #250 on: April 21, 2023, 08:29:29 pm »
Last year, the last 3 remaining plants were due to be decomissioned but after much debate it was decided to move the deadline by a few months because of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the fear that there might be energy shortages during the winter.

because in a few months they will be able to make up the difference? Well like I said, politicians - no better than the average person.

Yes, I think it was mostly political theatre. Modelling apparently showed that impact of those three plants (with mostly spent fuel rods) on grid stability would likely be marginal. I guess it was done to appease critics and to tick that box just in case, so if shit had really hit the fan (it didn't) they could have said "well, we did everything". Indeed, (average person) would probably have done the same.

But looking at the bigger picture, a lot has actually changed in a few months. I mean, the worry was mainly about running out of fuel (not just for electricity but also for heating). And that is mostly solved. Russian natural gas has been replaced with increased supply from Norway and increased LNG capacity. Winter is over, storage levels are still reasonably high. Prices are still higher than before the war (but a long way from their peak), climate impact is worse than before. But availability is no longer an immediate concern.

So Germany now has lots of storage then? or is there enough gas to act as the fast acting compensator in the system? Or are they going to over install so much wind and solar that they can never not have enough but most of the time have much more than needed.

Let me guess, the shortfall will come from french nuclear :)

Germany has been a net exporter for a long time (France is actually the biggest buyer), even after turning off most nuclear plants, and that is unlikely to change this year. And for now (with renewables averaging just ~50%) there is enough fast acting gas (and slower acting coal  >:( ).

What's done is done. The debate is years late.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2023, 09:14:04 pm by switchabl »
 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #251 on: April 22, 2023, 05:17:05 am »
So as I said earlier if renewables are taking the place of nuclear then you need to have built much more capacity.

Yes, or you just need much higher prices - which naturally come with the lowered capacity (basic stuff, less energy available =  energy is more expensive, who would have thought!) - so more people can't afford it and thus consume a lot less (whether this will impact their life negatively, who cares, right!). Then you don't need more capacity. :popcorn:

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Online Ed.Kloonk

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #252 on: April 22, 2023, 05:29:07 am »
I am confused. I was led to believe that the people voted for this. There is a difference theoretically between the people and the politicians. Politicians are supposed to follow a due process and listen to the expects. Theoretically we know that they at least did this before deciding. When it comes to the people we all know what doing their own research means for many.... people won't be obliged to listen to proper experts so I am still very wary of letting "people" decide. Sadly the average person is not that clever.

Well, the mob that got voted in had this type of energy policy going in. It was no secret. For a voter to say that they didn't know that is bullshit. They wanted and voted for the one that promised more free stuff, and that comes at the cost of infrastructure.
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #253 on: April 22, 2023, 05:45:13 am »
I do not say "was" as in the energy system what matters is now, in this half of the 50Hz cycle where is the power coming from. You either have it all or you have non of it.

Nuclear is a certain source. If you remembered to turn it on, it will be making power. You can't entirely guarantee renewables. So as I said earlier if renewables are taking the place of nuclear then you need to have built much more capacity. So you are reliant on coal and for fast response gas, if pyou can get it. Shutting down nuclear is a really bad idea, you can't just flick it back on if it's starting to look  bit sticky.

Oh, here is where your mistake happens. You are just wrong. Nuclear needs fossil backup (nearly) as much as renewables do. Always been this way.

Really, the main metric to look at is the average use of fossil fuels. If you want to think in more complex patterns, then you really need to know what you are talking about.
 

Online Ed.Kloonk

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #254 on: April 22, 2023, 05:53:36 am »
Nuclear needs fossil backup (nearly) as much as renewables do. Always been this way.

Why? What do you mean? Do they not provide continuous output?
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Offline Kleinstein

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #255 on: April 22, 2023, 06:34:44 am »
Nuclear needs fossil backup (nearly) as much as renewables do. Always been this way.

Why? What do you mean? Do they not provide continuous output?

They normally provide continuous output, but that is exactly part of the problem: they don't provide reseves for peak power and possibly too much at night.

The other point is that there is a chance that they have to shut down for safety reasons - not very likely, but it can happen, especially with many reactors of the same type and thus a possibly common weak point in the design. There have been times when multiple reactors had to shut down for urgent unplaned safty checks. A fault in one plant can thus trigger the shut down for a whole series of reactors of the same type.
Not having that option to shut down if a flaw is found is a very bad idea and would compomise safety.
With nuclear the backup is normally not needed that regular, but one still needs a plan B.
 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #256 on: April 22, 2023, 07:14:05 am »
Nuclear needs fossil backup (nearly) as much as renewables do. Always been this way.

Why? What do you mean? Do they not provide continuous output?

No, they don't. Sudden unplanned SCRAM events have to be accounted for (not a massive problem in a county with dozens of reactors and good grid, though), but even more importantly, nuclear is almost always dimensioned to run at 100% power continuously while load variations are large. This is the reason why we never saw >50% nuclear in any country, but always as a mix with fossil fuels; the synergy with fossils is good as their production can be ramped up or down quickly.

Solar and wind production is similar "special snowflake", which just replaced nuclear production in Germany, and still needs supporting fossil fuels.

The big difference is, solar and wind production is so much cheaper per produced kWh to build and maintain (total cost of ownership with all true expenses) that overdimensioning them does not become such a problem overdimensioning nuclear production would have been (no one tried).
« Last Edit: April 22, 2023, 07:17:20 am by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #257 on: April 22, 2023, 08:25:08 am »
Nuclear needs fossil backup (nearly) as much as renewables do. Always been this way.

Why? What do you mean? Do they not provide continuous output?

No, they don't. Sudden unplanned SCRAM events have to be accounted for (not a massive problem in a county with dozens of reactors and good grid, though), but even more importantly, nuclear is almost always dimensioned to run at 100% power continuously while load variations are large.
That depends entirely on the type of reactors. The ones that are planned in the NL are types that can be regulated quickly. But even without that, you can convert the excess electricity into hydrogen. Keep in mind new nuclear power plants aren't build in a few years so by the time these new plants are finished, the hydrogen infrastructure and demand will be scaled up much further.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline iMo

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #258 on: April 22, 2023, 08:32:43 am »
What about those Small Modular Reactors?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor
Readers discretion is advised..
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #259 on: April 22, 2023, 09:12:44 am »
The ones that are planned in the NL are types that can be regulated quickly

It's not about being technically able to do it, just about cost. If you build too much and throttle them to significantly <100% average power, TCO will be even higher than it already is. Given the always-existing fluctuations in load demand, and increased fluctuations in renewable production, the maximum cost-effective share of nuclear will only get lower and lower.

What about those Small Modular Reactors?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor

Was following with interest a decade ago. Except total 2 demonstration units (in China and Russia), it did not happen, no signs of happening in any meaningful scale. Like Solar Roadways, one needs to understand the difference between ideas/marketing and practical solutions. In the end, the market makes the choice. This is one of those "by all means prove me wrong" cases.

The whole idea is based on mass manufacturing bringing costs down: classically, smaller units are higher cost per energy produced, so you need to compensate somehow, and that "somehow" is supposed to be making thousands. But it's a chicken-egg problem, as the market won't buy the expensive reactors, mass manufacturing and getting the costs down will never happen.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2023, 09:33:02 am by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline .RC.

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #260 on: April 22, 2023, 10:26:12 am »


The big difference is, solar and wind production is so much cheaper per produced kWh to build and maintain (total cost of ownership with all true expenses) that overdimensioning them does not become such a problem overdimensioning nuclear production would have been (no one tried).

Depends on what price you put on reliability.  You must have storage and yet one struggles to find information on storage costs for grid sized networks for 100% reliability.  How many hours or days storage you need.

At the end of the day, storage is very expensive.   

But all this emissions stuff.   No need to worry.   There are enough billions of people in third world countries, that will burn every last bit of coal, gas and oil.  Because it is cheap to utilise as it is such low technology. You do not need a single piece of silicon semiconductor material to turn fossil fuels into electricity.

It might be expensive in western countries, but that is only because of regulation.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #261 on: April 22, 2023, 10:45:00 am »
Depends on what price you put on reliability.  You must have storage

This is going in circles. Again: you don't need storage, and it has nothing to do with reliability. Fossil fuels can be used to supplement renewables just like they were and are used to supplement nuclear. This is how it works now and it works well.
 

Offline mendip_discovery

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #262 on: April 22, 2023, 12:06:43 pm »
Not sure if anyone else has posted this link.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Its UK only but an interesting site to look at it shows the usage.

Is there pages similar this for other countries?
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Offline .RC.

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #263 on: April 22, 2023, 12:13:50 pm »
Fossil fuels are being phased out though.

There is not going to be this fossil fuel backup in the future.
 

Offline switchabl

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #264 on: April 22, 2023, 12:16:41 pm »
Not sure if anyone else has posted this link.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Its UK only but an interesting site to look at it shows the usage.

Is there pages similar this for other countries?

Fraunhofer ISE has a very comprehensive website for Germany (also covers other European countries but the level of detail and the quality of the data varies):
https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE
 

Offline m k

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #265 on: April 22, 2023, 12:55:00 pm »
Base must be backed up with something, always.
Coverage of peak demand must also be available, always.

Plants are down, cables are cut and so on.
Sure there is a limit but all down because of one is not very good practice.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #266 on: April 22, 2023, 03:24:45 pm »


The big difference is, solar and wind production is so much cheaper per produced kWh to build and maintain (total cost of ownership with all true expenses) that overdimensioning them does not become such a problem overdimensioning nuclear production would have been (no one tried).

Depends on what price you put on reliability.  You must have storage and yet one struggles to find information on storage costs for grid sized networks for 100% reliability.  How many hours or days storage you need.

At the end of the day, storage is very expensive.   
Indeed. As I outlined before: generation costs are like 20% of the end consumer price of the electricity. Margin, transport and taxes make up for the other 80%.

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But all this emissions stuff.   No need to worry.   There are enough billions of people in third world countries, that will burn every last bit of coal, gas and oil.  Because it is cheap to utilise as it is such low technology. You do not need a single piece of silicon semiconductor material to turn fossil fuels into electricity.
I tend to disagree here. A lot of the third world countries have excellent opportunities to generate hydrogen. Hydrogen is the new oil and unlike oil, you only need land area and solar panels to start harvesting energy & making money. This in turn leads to more money spend in the economies of those countries. And this hasn't gone unnoticed by the governments as well. All the countries in North Africa are trying to get a piece of the hydrogen production cake.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2023, 03:33:54 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #267 on: April 22, 2023, 04:09:17 pm »
Fossil fuels are being phased out though.

There is not going to be this fossil fuel backup in the future.

You can keep hoping that, and there might be political reasons to say things like that, but it's not really going to happen any time soon, and it doesn't need to happen. Just getting the volumes used significantly lower is good.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #268 on: April 22, 2023, 04:12:52 pm »
A lot of the third world countries have excellent opportunities to generate hydrogen. Hydrogen is the new oil

Or, using hydrogen as an intermediate product, synthetic fuels which can be transported using existing oil transport infrastructure.

Anywhere with excess solar and wind production and good enough grid, this can be done. Efficiency will colossally suck, but it doesn't matter if the power would be wasted otherwise.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #269 on: April 22, 2023, 05:01:32 pm »
A lot of the third world countries have excellent opportunities to generate hydrogen. Hydrogen is the new oil

Or, using hydrogen as an intermediate product, synthetic fuels which can be transported using existing oil transport infrastructure.

Anywhere with excess solar and wind production and good enough grid, this can be done. Efficiency will colossally suck, but it doesn't matter if the power would be wasted otherwise.
Also keep in mind that solar panels that are installed near the equator in desert areas receive twice as much radiation from the sun compared to those installed in central Europe. So even when losing half the energy due to conversion losses, you still end up with the same cost per kWh because the generating side is twice as productive for the same investment.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #270 on: April 22, 2023, 05:10:16 pm »
A lot of the third world countries have excellent opportunities to generate hydrogen. Hydrogen is the new oil

Or, using hydrogen as an intermediate product, synthetic fuels which can be transported using existing oil transport infrastructure.

Anywhere with excess solar and wind production and good enough grid, this can be done. Efficiency will colossally suck, but it doesn't matter if the power would be wasted otherwise.
Also keep in mind that solar panels that are installed near the equator in desert areas receive twice as much radiation from the sun compared to those installed in central Europe. So even when losing half the energy due to conversion losses, you still end up with the same cost per kWh because the generating side is twice as productive for the same investment.

... only if the conversion to fuel is with zero investment. The key is to make this cheap as well. PV panels are quite affordable already.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #271 on: April 22, 2023, 08:10:05 pm »
A lot of the third world countries have excellent opportunities to generate hydrogen. Hydrogen is the new oil

Or, using hydrogen as an intermediate product, synthetic fuels which can be transported using existing oil transport infrastructure.

Anywhere with excess solar and wind production and good enough grid, this can be done. Efficiency will colossally suck, but it doesn't matter if the power would be wasted otherwise.
Also keep in mind that solar panels that are installed near the equator in desert areas receive twice as much radiation from the sun compared to those installed in central Europe. So even when losing half the energy due to conversion losses, you still end up with the same cost per kWh because the generating side is twice as productive for the same investment.

... only if the conversion to fuel is with zero investment. The key is to make this cheap as well. PV panels are quite affordable already.
I agree PV panels are very affordable already (both due to lowering prices and increasing efficiency -which is great-) but adding storage is still costly. Currently most consumer PV owners use the grid as a 'battery' but at some point that will stop and you'll be forced to pay for storage in order to maximise the ROI of your solar panels. You can't just look at generation costs alone. You need to take into account storage and distribution costs and that will paint an entirely different picture.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Kleinstein

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #272 on: April 22, 2023, 08:39:28 pm »
The conversion of electricty to hydrogen is relatively simple and should not be a big cost factor.
The cost for storage is still not that well known - so far more like an upper limit for batteries and the hydrogen path. How much storage is needed depends on a lot of factors, like the local demand, production mix and the grid capacity. Especially the pumped hydro part is very position dependent. So it is not an universal price.
Nuclear power would also need some storage / backups, if used for more than a small fraction (like 20 %).

Hydrogen is still not that easy to transport. So ideally some of the more energy intensive productions (aluminum, some chemistry, glass) would move. The aluminum production moves to were electricity is cheap - that is nothing new.  It is way easier to transport than hydrogen.
Especially at the favorable locations the renewables could get away with less storrage as they are more preductable there. So it is not just more energy from the same PV panels, but also a more regular supply.

I am afraid some energy intensive  industries will no longer be competative in central Europe.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #273 on: April 22, 2023, 08:44:34 pm »
In the NL the debate is to put the new nuclear power plants near energy intensive industries or not. One of the problems is that creating high quality products is not something you can move to low cost countries very easely. For example.: Tata steel in the NL produces some very high quality steel products that can't be sourced from China. Additionally there is also more focus on sourcing products with a low CO2 footprint. IIRC I have read some news articles saying that there might be CO2 footprint dependant import taxes for products made abroad to level the playing field.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2023, 08:56:00 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #274 on: April 23, 2023, 01:55:42 pm »

And what is the guarantee that a politician understands anythig the expert says? What is the guarantee, that a very broad spectrum of experts are consulted, instead of a lobby group? That there is a debate?

Dictatorships are basically based on your argumentation. No joke.

And the only example wehere this (let the people decide) system is working is Switzerland. I don't see them as hopeless. Rather the pseudo democracies. I see big changes in Europe which are qiet possibly against the will of the population.

And if you would mention the big democratic trauma, the  BRRRR...  you know what :) . The problem there was rather not having to have a second voting, when the circumstances were clear. If people still would wanted to have it, they could have voted accordingly.


I am not saying that the politicians would get it right, but at least there would be some semblance of trying and this would be publicly scrutinized even if through later leaks. But I have no confidence at all in a democratic vote.

People seem to confuse democracy with what is right. Just because it is what the majority wanted does not make it right. the majority are never going to be knowledgeable on the issue so the result will be just pop luck, no better than the politicians.

Yes I am scared by a recent vote where even I voted the wrong way. I am not angry with those that told lies and I did not vote on those anyway. I am angry with those that just said: "this is a really bad idea - trust us". The result was I did not. I did try to seek out information but as a simple citizen with limited time and not knowing where to start it was impossible. Did any news channels bother to make programs that just explained the facts? NO! did anyone make say a YouTube series that gave information? NO! All we got was debates between people with opinions praying on peoples fears, at no point did someone say: "look guys it works like this, now make up your own mind if you think this is worth while. Now if we change you get this, now make up your minds if that is what you want". No the public discourse was reduced to political silos having a mud slinging match in an attempt to scare people to vote one way or the other.

I doubt very much that any issue or debate would be held properly, it's just .... people..... 90% are too stupid to know what is good for them. That is after all the reason why we have a political system, someone has to make the decision. OK you don't like those politicians, but, the majority voted for them so basically truth and reasonableness are fucked either way.


Quote
I am not saying that the politicians would get it right, but at least there would be some semblance of trying and this would be publicly scrutinized even if through later leaks.

And what that scuritnizing means at the end? Basically nothing else as if a bad vote had to be scrutinized, with the difference, that in the last case the decision would had come from a democratic decision, and there would be much more public scrutiny BEFORE the decision.

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But I have no confidence at all in a democratic vote.
So you don't belive in democracy? Or why do you have confidence of people voting on dozens of complex issues in 4 years intervalls and making it right, while not trusting the same people on deciding  one single issue?

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Did any news channels bother to make programs that just explained the facts? NO! did anyone make say a YouTube series that gave information? NO! All we got was debates between people with opinions praying on peoples fears, at no point did someone say: "look guys it works like this, now make up your own mind if you think this is worth while. Now if we change you get this, now make up your minds if that is what you want". No the public discourse was reduced to political silos having a mud slinging match in an attempt to scare people to vote one way or the other.
What you describe here are rather symptomps of a country where the culture is giving up more and more the concept of democracy, because the population is getting used to the fact that they don't have a possiblity of voting on anything meaningful, so they don't have to follow whats happening. (The proposed internet reforms and the silence around them showing also in that direction.)
Many people in Britain did not have the slightest clue what the EU is. I have talked to many britons who belived that health care is only free in Britain within the EU. (And these were not the most uneducated people, I have to add.) And similar nonsense.
When peolple are getting used to the fact that they don't have a say, they will stop reading some news, because why the hack should they? They can't have a say on any policy, that is the job of the politicians.

In Switzerland they vote 4-5 times a year, and I don't remember any of this wrecking the country. Even we in Hungary did have a few referendums, and none of those were disastrous.


Quote
I doubt very much that any issue or debate would be held properly, it's just .... people..... 90% are too stupid to know what is good for them. That is after all the reason why we have a political system, someone has to make the decision. OK you don't like those politicians, but, the majority voted for them so basically truth and reasonableness are fucked either way.

Well OK, but why waist so much money on different political partys, and voting? The same people surely can't decide what the total complexity of politcs was during many years, so let just be one group of expert to decide, and than they could also have longer planning times. Like 5, and 20 years :)

When you vote for persons, but don't have a say on anything, than you basically trust those up there to be smarter than you. In Russia and China for example I thik they are following and always followed the very same logic. They also have oppinion polls. But than people also can have the bad oppinion, just because they are uninformed, it is not that important anyway, but if it was getting important, than you can "educate" them.

I don't hate politicians, but there is a difference when the politicians are not allowing the public to decide on anything, and when they are.
Someone said this in the old days:"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others."

I only know the B... referendum where a nation comletely screwed itself, but it as I said it was rather the missing of a second referendum the main issue, and by not letting the people vote would only lead to UKIP running the nation now, until they are having a majority to alow a vote.
Again politicians followed a decision which in its true form was not supported by the majority.(probably)


I am confused. I was led to beleive that the people voted for this.

There was never a referendum if that is what you mean. In 2000, a social democrat/green coalition goverment first decided to phase out nuclear energy by around 2020 and change to PV and wind. A conservative government reversed that plan in 2010, then more or less reinstated it in 2011... Last year, the last 3 remaining plants were due to be decomissioned but after much debate it was decided to move the deadline by a few months because of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the fear that there might be energy shortages during the winter.

And here we go again. A coalition(not even a party with a majority) spd/green wants to do something. No chance for a referendum on it, but they loose an election. So you ask why did they loose it, but of course no one has a clue. Maybe because of this. So an other party gets into power which didn't want to do it, but then suddenly they change their mind and do it. Can we call this as a representation of the will of the people?
And than the 2015 issue and now the drogliberalization as well, which will create even more tension not just in Germany but in the whole EU....




« Last Edit: April 23, 2023, 02:08:24 pm by Neutrion »
 


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