EEVblog Electronics Community Forum
General => General Technical Chat => Topic started by: Beamin on May 10, 2018, 03:37:10 pm
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I was thinking of how the US is on par for hyper inflation 6% this year 5% last year and has been doing this since bush in 2001. I realized this when:
Eggs at supermarket normally 0.79 (at some shops or all shops last years) with in last three months they are 2.79-3.00
allergy pills normally 3.99 now 8.99-10.99 over two years
I used to be able to forecast grocery store prices by looking at the cost of diesel fuel and seeing the price go up and a month later food goes up. then diesel goes down and price drops. Now diesel goes up stores go up then diesel goes down and price stays high at stores. (perishable items have the most price flux)
Im 2000 we build an entire 3 bed room 2 floor with basement house from home depot: Not some shanty but a proper 2000sqft 3 bed 2.5 bath carpet granite counter tops the whole nine years hard wood floor down stairs. ALL from nails to sheet roch to 2x4's to plumbing to wiring to fixtures to appliances cabinets paint siding shingles drive way and grass and bushes ll from depot. Only thing we did buy else where was the carpet because depot didn't carry high enough end Capet. store didnt sell the higher quality we needed. That was sold for 60% profit built in 9 months from a plot of forest with a two car garage basement in rocky soil. By a bunch of (8) high school kids board over one summer. We did manage to borrow a back hoe to dig it out from a friends dad and took a tech school classed on wiring to get it up to code and had a friends dad certify it. We sold for like 300K!
Today at depot yeah right! they sale 0.75 fasteners for 5.00 and the whole store is like that. You could do an edition on you house and do all the labor yourself and make off but not doing that from profit anymore.
Eectronic stores selling 5$ hdmi cables for 50 bucks. Target sell form injected plast cubes for 5$ that cost less then 0.1$ to make.
Hyper inflation sort of but different in that it caused by wall street instead of the fed.
EVERY store here in the US is like this. Are all the other countries following suit?
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All inflation is caused by the Fed, and the insanity started much earlier than 2001. 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window was the probably the beginning of the end. The official CPI algorithms have been put under more torture than Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, to the point where they make no sense whatsoever.
Now with effectively Bretton Woods II, and since the crash in 2008, we aren't even trying anymore. "Free" money at artificially low rates for over a decade have blown massive debt-fueled bubbles in equities markets, higher education, and healthcare that reverberate across every sector.
But heck, you can't build a 21.1 trillion dollar mountain of debt without repercussions, right?
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Riksbanken, the central bank of Sweden, writes thus:
The foremost reason that the Riksbank, like many other central banks around the world, has an inflation target is that it contributes to price stability, which creates the conditions for good and long-term sustainable growth. A credible inflation target serves as a benchmark for inflation expectations in the economy. The Riksbank's inflation target is to keep inflation measured by CPIF around 2 per cent per year.
https://www.riksbank.se/sv/penningpolitik/inflationsmalet/ (https://www.riksbank.se/sv/penningpolitik/inflationsmalet/)
And the inflation here is at the moment indeed usually around 2% (+/- 2):
(http://www.scb.se/contentassets/2c6de261f74c4bd3bb237f63c3031df1/pr0101_2017a01_di_06_sv.gif)
Compare with the US: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm)
The real question one should ask is whether it makes sense to have salaries follow CPI though.
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Bah, CPI is all BS anymore. Consider the hedonic regression model example of a TV, whereas a $500 46" 4K LCD TV is more valuable at a $1000 25" Sony Trinitron CRT because it can surf the internet and show Netflix. (Ignore the fact that cheap electrolytic caps will ensure it finds its way to the landfill in a few years)
An Economist, a Biologist and an Engineer are sitting in a street cafe watching people going in and coming out of the house on the other side of the street. First, they see two people going into the house. Time passes. After a while they notice three people coming out of the house and offer explanations:
The Engineer: "The measurement wasn't accurate."
The Biologists conclusion: "They have reproduced".
The Economist: "If one person enters the house then it will be empty again."
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Here, in Germany, it just kind of doubled everything from since the introduction of the Euro. Shouldn't this huge price change mean that the trading rate changes as well? I always saw the dollar steadily following the euro 50 to 20 cents behind. How can you see a ten times increase in prize?
Are you sure you're not just seeing the stores change from Chinese goods to American-made, because Trump wanted to increase jobs so much?
BTW, our whole country thinks your president is a joke.
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Today at depot yeah right! they sale 0.75 fasteners for 5.00 and the whole store is like that. You could do an edition on you house and do all the labor yourself and make off but not doing that from profit anymore.
Eectronic stores selling 5$ hdmi cables for 50 bucks. Target sell form injected plast cubes for 5$ that cost less then 0.1$ to make.
EVERY store here in the US is like this. Are all the other countries following suit?
Which sane person buys from stores anymore? I buy everything online (*) . Way cheaper, better quality and more choice. 9 out of 10 times a shop doesn't even have what I need.
* With a few exceptions for example a shop where you can buy professional grade building materials for reasonable prices).
Over here the 'home depot' like stores sell crap for over inflated prices. The same goes for many stores. The cullprit is increased rent prices for buildings and lower turnover due to people ordering stuff online so they have to increase margins on the products they do sell.
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Which sane person buys from stores anymore? I buy everything online (*) . Way cheaper, better quality and more choice. 9 out of 10 times a shop doesn't even have what I need.
A picture is enough to explain it to you that you live in a cramped, packed area compared to US, as not everything can be shipped cheaply, its still expensive even the courier doesn't make any profit when your area is as big as say Texas state, and this is only one state.
(http://i.imgur.com/ETv01YQ.jpg)
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There are lies, bigger lies and then statistics....
Governments have manipulated inflation data for years - in the US you can follow Shadow stats for a different opinion
The real inflation values are probably somewhere in between shadow stats data and the real data.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)
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Here, in Germany, it just kind of doubled everything from since the introduction of the Euro. Shouldn't this huge price change mean that the trading rate changes as well? I always saw the dollar steadily following the euro 50 to 20 cents behind. How can you see a ten times increase in prize?
Are you sure you're not just seeing the stores change from Chinese goods to American-made, because Trump wanted to increase jobs so much?
BTW, our whole country thinks your president is a joke.
Well, Trump has done more with North Korea than any President in the last 65 years. It may all come crashing down but, even then, it would be more than anybody else has done.
Our unemployment rate is near historic lows and the money we do borrow, we borrow at historic low rates. Of course you borrow when rates are down.
Germany's debt vs GDP is a lot better than ours. OTOH, Germany doesn't pay for their own defense and we're not going to keep funding NATO forever. Euro's don't seriously think that the EU Army is going to be a salvation, do they? At most, it is an attempt to have a multinational force to suppress divergent behavior among the members. You don't think they're really going to hold up against Russia, do you? Good luck with that!
I would think Germany would be keeping a low profile given that they are likely to have to provide additional funding to the southern countries. How's that EU thing working out for you?
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There are lies, bigger lies and then statistics....
Governments have manipulated inflation data for years - in the US you can follow Shadow stats for a different opinion
The real inflation values are probably somewhere in between shadow stats data and the real data.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)
CPI isn't lies or manipulated statistic, it's just subjective in nature. The problem is how you use it and what you try to justify with it (e.g. adjusting salaries/wages).
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There are lies, bigger lies and then statistics....
Governments have manipulated inflation data for years - in the US you can follow Shadow stats for a different opinion
The real inflation values are probably somewhere in between shadow stats data and the real data.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)
CPI isn't lies or manipulated statistic, it's just subjective in nature. The problem is how you use it and what you try to justify with it (e.g. adjusting salaries/wages).
Subjective statistics are not really statistics. :) Modifying what you measure to fit numbers to what you want - is not straight. But it happens all the time in all walks of life.
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OTOH, Germany doesn't pay for their own defense and we're not going to keep funding NATO forever. Euro's don't seriously think that the EU Army is going to be a salvation, do they? At most, it is an attempt to have a multinational force to suppress divergent behavior among the members. You don't think they're really going to hold up against Russia, do you? Good luck with that!
Yeah, thanks a lot for waging war in the middle east and africa so that there now are millions of terrorised homeless people without education seeking refuge in europe. The US doesn't even have the decency to take in any refugees themselves. Bloody mess you have created, literally, and that you then let your "allies" try and clean up for you. Trump haven't started any wars in our neighbourhood yet at least, he deserve credit for that.
If NATO wasn't building bases on Russia's border Putin wouldn't have an domestic excuse to increase the military budget as much either. But the EU's cumulative defence budget over the last couple of decennia is still much larger than that of Russia. Putin is not a direct threat if the EU countries can cooperate and just keep calm, anyone who says anything else is just spreading propaganda BS. I would worry more about having a president who wins election with the help of his friend Putin if I were you.
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Germany's debt vs GDP is a lot better than ours. OTOH, Germany doesn't pay for their own defense and we're not going to keep funding NATO forever. Euro's don't seriously think that the EU Army is going to be a salvation, do they? At most, it is an attempt to have a multinational force to suppress divergent behavior among the members. You don't think they're really going to hold up against Russia, do you? Good luck with that!
I see you buy the scaremongering your government (lead by Putin's sock puppet!) is spoon feeding you. It is the oldest trick in the book to keep people away from seeing the mess a government makes: create an enemy and focus the attention on that enemy. Doesn't it strike you as odd that the US has been having one enemy after the other since WW2? Something doesn't add up and at some point someone is going to have to pay the bill.
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There are lies, bigger lies and then statistics....
Governments have manipulated inflation data for years - in the US you can follow Shadow stats for a different opinion
The real inflation values are probably somewhere in between shadow stats data and the real data.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)
CPI isn't lies or manipulated statistic, it's just subjective in nature. The problem is how you use it and what you try to justify with it (e.g. adjusting salaries/wages).
Subjective statistics are not really statistics. :) Modifying what you measure to fit numbers to what you want - is not straight. But it happens all the time in all walks of life.
The problem isn't CPI itself though, that's just data. I agree it's not straight the way it is used always.
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I certainly dont agree with the idea that prices have spiralled out of control , diesel is as cheap as ever here , food is good value and eating out , if you are careful can be good and reasonable. I live in Ireland , so lets leave out house prices !!!! ( well I do live in one of the most expensive countries in the EU , so maybe Im just inured to it |O)
I have found however both the UK and the USA seems to have got very expensive
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Inflation numbers always depend on what good you look at. Some goods get cheaper, while others get way more expensive. So it really depends who you ask. if the selection of goods is not update fast enough, it can cause the numbers to go crazy.
Those items like perishable food are always fluctuating quite a bit in both directions. So general inflation is only a small part on there price. So better ignore those unless you have a statistics with lots of items and only look at the long scale (like decades).
The current problem is more like official inflation numbers are still too low, so that the FED etc. are not raising rates fast enough. Not sure if they really manipulate the numbers. At least in Europe/Germany inflation is not yet that high and the official number don't look that far off. It's mainly the interest rates that are off. :-DD
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I was thinking of how the US is on par for hyper inflation 6% this year 5% last year and has been doing this since bush in 2001. I realized this when:
EVERY store here in the US is like this. Are all the other countries following suit?
Hyper inflation is generally considered to be >50% per month an in pre-WWII Germany. You'd leave home in the morning with a wheelbarrow of 1 million Reichmarks to buy a loaf of bread only to discover it had go up to 3 million.
There's nothing unusual with inflation rates since 2001. In the '80s in the UK, inflation ran far higher than yet.
Yes, somethings are more expensive. Likewise, income is, too.
But somethings are so, so much cheaper, notably electronics. What you can buy today for $99 off eBay would have cost you $1000s in 2001 assuming they even existed.
Regard eggs, I'd never buy them at $0.79 because you can be damned sure the hens were bred in the most disgusting manner that most countries have outlawed. $3 seems fair.
https://www.radioiowa.com/2017/12/29/egg-prices-predicted-to-go-up-in-2018/ (https://www.radioiowa.com/2017/12/29/egg-prices-predicted-to-go-up-in-2018/)
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OTOH, Germany doesn't pay for their own defense and we're not going to keep funding NATO forever. Euro's don't seriously think that the EU Army is going to be a salvation, do they? At most, it is an attempt to have a multinational force to suppress divergent behavior among the members. You don't think they're really going to hold up against Russia, do you? Good luck with that!
Yeah, thanks a lot for waging war in the middle east and africa so that there now are millions of terrorised homeless people without education seeking refuge in europe. The US doesn't even have the decency to take in any refugees themselves. Bloody mess you have created, literally, and that you then let your "allies" try and clean up for you. Trump haven't started any wars in our neighbourhood yet at least, he deserve credit for that.
If NATO wasn't building bases on Russia's border Putin wouldn't have an domestic excuse to increase the military budget as much either. But the EU's cumulative defence budget over the last couple of decennia is still much larger than that of Russia. Putin is not a direct threat if the EU countries can cooperate and just keep calm, anyone who says anything else is just spreading propaganda BS. I would worry more about having a president who wins election with the help of his friend Putin if I were you.
Hoping this thread gets locked soon. :horse:
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Here, in Germany, it just kind of doubled everything from since the introduction of the Euro. Shouldn't this huge price change mean that the trading rate changes as well? I always saw the dollar steadily following the euro 50 to 20 cents behind. How can you see a ten times increase in prize?
Are you sure you're not just seeing the stores change from Chinese goods to American-made, because Trump wanted to increase jobs so much?
BTW, our whole country thinks your president is a joke.
Well, Trump has done more with North Korea than any President in the last 65 years. It may all come crashing down but, even then, it would be more than anybody else has done.
Our unemployment rate is near historic lows and the money we do borrow, we borrow at historic low rates. Of course you borrow when rates are down.
Germany's debt vs GDP is a lot better than ours. OTOH, Germany doesn't pay for their own defense and we're not going to keep funding NATO forever. Euro's don't seriously think that the EU Army is going to be a salvation, do they? At most, it is an attempt to have a multinational force to suppress divergent behavior among the members. You don't think they're really going to hold up against Russia, do you? Good luck with that!
I would think Germany would be keeping a low profile given that they are likely to have to provide additional funding to the southern countries. How's that EU thing working out for you?
Why did it have to end in dick measuring again?
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Here, in Germany, it just kind of doubled everything from since the introduction of the Euro. Shouldn't this huge price change mean that the trading rate changes as well? I always saw the dollar steadily following the euro 50 to 20 cents behind. How can you see a ten times increase in prize?
Are you sure you're not just seeing the stores change from Chinese goods to American-made, because Trump wanted to increase jobs so much?
BTW, our whole country thinks your president is a joke.
People also tend to ignore how inflation compounds. A yearly inflation of 3% over two decades means almost doubling what things cost. 1.8 times, to be more precise.
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I think the only prices that have increased way beyond what they should have are houses and energy.
Today, fuel costs at my local service station:
10% Ethanol Blend - 143.9 cents / Litre
Unleaded 95 RON - 157.9 cents / Litre
Unleaded 98 RON - 164.9 cents / Litre
Diesel - 156.4 cents / Litre
I pay 21.18 cents per kWh for electricity.
Sydney's average house price is about $1 million.
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I think the only prices that have increased way beyond what they should have are houses and energy.
Today, fuel costs at my local service station:
10% Ethanol Blend - 143.9 cents / Litre
Unleaded 95 RON - 157.9 cents / Litre
Unleaded 98 RON - 164.9 cents / Litre
Diesel - 156.4 cents / Litre
I pay 21.18 cents per kWh for electricity.
Sydney's average house price is about $1 million.
except for the house prices, these basically identical to our prices, even still a little cheaper. I pay 24 euro cents for a kWh, and that's the cheapest.
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I think the only prices that have increased way beyond what they should have are houses and energy.
Sydney's average house price is about $1 million.
Somebody in Sydney is making some good money! Hobart had some impressive gains and, of the large cities, has the lowest median price. Good investment opportunities.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-01/sydney-housing-market-trumped-canberra-hobart/9214830 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-01/sydney-housing-market-trumped-canberra-hobart/9214830)
I sure didn't make 17% in the stock market.
The thing about houses is that there's just so much dirt and they aren't making any more. If you want dirt that is close to jobs, it costs more. Around here, municipalities have been sued to prevent expansion beyond current limits. Only 'infill' projects are allowed and since these are generally for affordable housing, nothing much gets built. More demand, static supply -> increasing prices. Works for me!
I'm not sure which dollar was used in the housing survey. If it was Australian dollars then the houses are a little more reasonable. Probably the way to compare house prices is to divide cost by salary.
Sunnyvale is pretty much in the center of Silicon Valley. Here is a POS house that sold for $2 million:
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/sunnyvale-bay-area-housing-crisis-overbid-record-12724159.php (https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/sunnyvale-bay-area-housing-crisis-overbid-record-12724159.php)
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Thank you for the best read I've had in the past week.
Steve
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Things haven't been great in Zimbabwe in recent years. This is/was worth 1 USD.
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Well, Trump has done more with North Korea than any President in the last 65 years. It may all come crashing down but, even then, it would be more than anybody else has done.
Which, sadly, shows ignorance of history. Let's start with the presidents:
Truman and the Korean "Police action" War should be an obvious big deal, since there were over 100K US troops killed or injured. The invasions failed, in both directions. Both Koreas weren't really independent again until the assisting forces withdrew. In the case of NK, the Chinese withdrew their troops in 1958.
Bill Clinton actually had an agreement with NK to freeze nuclear development in 1994, quite early in his presidency.
That held until George W Bush effectively trashed the agreement as part of his reaction to 9/11/2001 by including NK in his "axis of evil" list followed by invading one of those countries (Iraq). That resulted in a non-nuclear NK not only restarting development, but actually having and tested a nuke prior to Bush leaving office.
(I see a pattern here. Obama had a nuke free agreement with Iran, and now Trump is breaking that agreement without sufficient cause. Any idiot can see that the most likely results are a) Iran restarts development like NK did or b) The other signatories keep the agreement without Trump, causing all sorts of political damage to the US and economic damage to US business interests without hurting Iran.)
All Donald has actually done so far with North Korea is talk and bluster.
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All Donald has actually done so far with North Korea is talk and bluster.
.. and claims he deserved a Noble prize for that .....
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Sorry, we all know this won't end well.
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Beamin, can you please stop starting these off-topic threads, this is not the place for general political discussions like this. You seem to have been guilty of this on several occasions now.
Thanks.