Author Topic: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.  (Read 31426 times)

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Offline AndyBeez

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #200 on: August 05, 2023, 09:11:24 pm »
In the UK and with Covid, the political class expended a lot of energy convincing the population they were following scientific guidance. And with Climate change, the same mantra of appearing to rely on solid facts applies. Sadly, scientists whose funding often depends on political favour, are obligated to provide the political class with the 'evidence' they need to make them look good, commanding and/or decisive. Even if they know the real truth, no scientist wants to be branded as a whistle blower, not when their institution's budget is subject to review by a politically biased oversight committee. When things go wrong, politicians brief the media against their own scientific advisors, claiming they were misled by flawed science :-//
 
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Offline coppice

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #201 on: August 05, 2023, 09:30:41 pm »
Yes yes, Ebola. Paid kids falling into mud and rolling in the mud in imaginary pain while their mothers watched a few meters away. Who leaked that, someone from Reuters i believe?
Perverse financial incentives mean we have very poor records about a lot of health issues. A number of African doctors have said that huge numbers of deaths used to be reported as AIDS in their countries, because that brought lots of international funding they didn't get for the real causes of those deaths. You can't blame them. You can blame funding agencies that hand out funds depending on which form of human suffering is fashionable at the moment.
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #202 on: August 05, 2023, 09:40:50 pm »
When things go wrong, politicians brief the media against their own scientific advisors, claiming they were misled by flawed science :-//

Being over on Christmas Island you no doubt missed this kind of thing:

Two groups of prominent scientists write open letters with conflicting advice on how to tackle virus

Coronavirus: why experts disagree so strongly over how to tackle the disease

Plenty more. Politicians could ignore their advisors advice (if given), but when the advisors can't even agree on the facts it's no surprise that everyone is seen as clueless, a shill, whatever insult is currently du jour. Oh, throw in two spoons of hindsight and it's a mix made for conspiracy theorists.
 

Offline Dr. Frank

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #203 on: August 05, 2023, 10:30:36 pm »


Being over on Christmas Island you no doubt missed this kind of thing:

Two groups of prominent scientists write open letters with conflicting advice on how to tackle virus

Coronavirus: why experts disagree so strongly over how to tackle the disease

Plenty more. Politicians could ignore their advisors advice (if given), but when the advisors can't even agree on the facts it's no surprise that everyone is seen as clueless, a shill, whatever insult is currently du jour. Oh, throw in two spoons of hindsight and it's a mix made for conspiracy theorists.
Thanks, very interesting.
I'm writing too much, I fear.
Anyhow, here are my last thoughts about the subject, but it's again about Engineering, i.e. optimized decision making in a commercial company.

Well, for both problems you can observe, that the decision makers/experts are fully focused on their problems, tried to solve them, get rid of them.
Those people were announced because they work solely on these domains.
These cognitive limits led to the big social and economic damages, as latter aspects were not addressed at all.

An optimized method is to bring experts from many different fields of knowledge to illuminate all possible root causes and especially all consequences of the different solutions. They also bring a lot of ideas with them.

In our company, we regularly solve the problem of terminated components, which is as well a real threat to our business, by calling in purchasing, logistics, quality, engineering, sales, process technology, manufacturing, layout, component technologists, as required.

The problem itself could be solved by purchasing only, to convince the supplier to withdraw his PTN. This only happens in 1..2% of the 300 PTNs each year, of course coming with a certain price tag. So the other colleagues all come up with their ideas, how to make a work-around, i.e. not solving the problem itself, but eliminating the threat, instead.
Logistics can organize an All Time Buy, Quality might look for alternative suppliers, Engineering could use 2nd source parts, make a re-engineering, Sales could offer the customer an upgraded instrument which would not use the component, and so forth. From all these solutions, you'd chose the optimal configuration, i.e. lowest price tag, shortest response time, smallest effort.

In case of COVID, it's of course very delicate to weigh up threat of human life vs. social and economic aspects, but latter as well are important for the well-being of people, in case of wrong decisions even more. But politicians only task is, to take care for the well-being of the people, in all aspects. Here they swear an oath on the Holy Bible to do so, but usually they forget and only do their own thing.

I always wondered, why here in GER no engineers or companies joint to the energy business were involved in all the discussions and decisions. Economy experts also were not consulted, as well not the population.
These Climate experts and activists just see the White Elephant in the room, i.e. a possible danger from Climate Change, create a lot of anxiety and brutally push through their 1 dimensional decisions, w/o any regards to huge losses or complete failure of our country.

My company would have long been bankrupt, if we would solve the issues that way.
Frank 
« Last Edit: August 05, 2023, 10:45:31 pm by Dr. Frank »
 

Offline Veteran68

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #204 on: August 05, 2023, 11:55:59 pm »
RAPo:
PLEASE QUOTE CORRECTLY
That was not me saying   this particular quote

It was me Quoting tom66

Not to sidetrack but pointing out that your method of quoting others is extremely frustrating to make sense of. Please quote using the forum Quote feature, like I'm doing in this post and like everyone else is doing. It takes care of formatting it so you can clearly see who said what when you're 4 or 5 quotes deep. :)

Now back to the debate...
 
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Offline coppice

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #205 on: August 06, 2023, 12:18:25 am »
When things go wrong, politicians brief the media against their own scientific advisors, claiming they were misled by flawed science :-//
They have no need to go against their own scientific advisors. They have lots of advisors, and there will always be some of them with a point of view the politicians like. :)
 

Online EEVblog

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #206 on: August 06, 2023, 02:02:52 am »
Plenty more. Politicians could ignore their advisors advice (if given), but when the advisors can't even agree on the facts it's no surprise that everyone is seen as clueless, a shill, whatever insult is currently du jour. Oh, throw in two spoons of hindsight and it's a mix made for conspiracy theorists.

Except that politicans implemented lockdowns and mandates, and destroyed civil liberties. And they kept them up and double and tripled down, for in some cases, years, for obvious fear of having been called wrong. They are absolutely to blame and deserve everything they get.
 
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Online EEVblog

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #207 on: August 06, 2023, 02:06:02 am »
Quote
As a kid of the 80's I grew up with the fear of the Ozone layer being destroyed and we even had a TV show called Captain Planet and the Planeteers and that made a big thing about cleaning up the world. Yet it didn't do a thing to change stuff if the current press is to be believed.
Didn't the ban on CFCs fix that up? Can't recall any recent press stuff about this either way, so if you have a relevant link I'd be interested to see it.
It would appear that changes to CFC usage have reversed the problem, and the ozone holes have been closing up.

Last I heard, yes, it was healing, but it's taken 40 years or something.
The difference with CFC usage was that eliminating it didn't change, interrupt, or destroy anyone's life. It was an easy and obvious change which we just did pretty much overnight with almost no consequence.
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #208 on: August 06, 2023, 03:08:48 am »
Last I heard, yes, it was healing, but it's taken 40 years or something.
The difference with CFC usage was that eliminating it didn't change, interrupt, or destroy anyone's life. It was an easy and obvious change which we just did pretty much overnight with almost no consequence.
Similarly, they should have phased out a whole lot of food additives, such as artificial colors and high fructose corn syrup. It would help improve health in general, which helps reduce severe Covid cases.

Or they could phase out factory farming to replace it with sustainable farming, which would both improve health and reduce the environmental impact of farming. It would also eliminate the risk of factory farming starting another pandemic. (Which has happened before in 2009, luckily a very light one.)
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline BrianHG

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #209 on: August 06, 2023, 03:17:22 am »
Last I heard, yes, it was healing, but it's taken 40 years or something.
The difference with CFC usage was that eliminating it didn't change, interrupt, or destroy anyone's life. It was an easy and obvious change which we just did pretty much overnight with almost no consequence.
I have skin acutely sensitive to UV exposure.  And since I have decided to go bald for the last few decades, I have to be careful, using sun-screen on my head if the local UV index is high and I know I will be outside for more than an hour, usually in the summer.  However, I cannot say how much of this extended effect is due to Ozone depletion of if this is just natural for me.  This was less of a problem in the 1970s, though I still had to be extra careful of sunburn on my skin.
 

Online EEVblog

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #210 on: August 06, 2023, 09:10:49 am »
Similarly, they should have phased out a whole lot of food additives, such as artificial colors and high fructose corn syrup. It would help improve health in general, which helps reduce severe Covid cases.

The lack of promotion, indeed downright deliberate active discouragement (to the point of people being banned for daring to mention it etc) of good health practices during covid was one of the big crimes of the whole pandemic.
No promotion of vitamin D, locking people inside without exercise or outdoor exposure etc. Disgusting.
 
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Offline beanflying

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #211 on: August 06, 2023, 09:32:26 am »
Coffee, Food, R/C and electronics nerd in no particular order. Also CNC wannabe, 3D printer and Laser Cutter Junkie and just don't mention my TEA addiction....
 

Offline snarkysparkyTopic starter

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #212 on: August 06, 2023, 11:45:21 am »

So if the handlers of the people have decided to "push"  a global warming alarmist theme on us what is the benefit to them.

They want to limit fossil fuel use.  And this is to "control"  the people?    What do they get from causing us to freeze to death in the winter?

If ya think about the global elite make out the very best when society is functioning and everyone is working and paying their taxes.

Please elaborate on the supposed motives to enslave us by taking our fossil fuels.
 

Offline Microdoser

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #213 on: August 06, 2023, 12:07:16 pm »
Happy, healthy, people, who are not concerned about something terrible happening in the near future, are bad for profit.
 
It has always been thus, and it will remain so.
 
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Offline vad

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #214 on: August 06, 2023, 12:55:48 pm »
So if the handlers of the people have decided to "push"  a global warming alarmist theme on us what is the benefit to them.

If you can answer the question of why people choose to become politicians, you will have the answer to your question.
 

Offline AndyBeez

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #215 on: August 06, 2023, 02:37:07 pm »
No promotion of vitamin D, locking people inside without exercise or outdoor exposure etc. Disgusting.
Agreed, the fuse of a future health emergency is slowly burning away.

Here in the UK, working from home became known as drinking from home. Many a Zoom or Teams call was made under the influence of a gin with no tonic. And why not? There was no one from Human Resources to check the specific gravity of an employee's coffee mug. At the height of lockdown number one, I was shopping in my local mini mart and noted I was the only one not buying hard spirits. Or liquor as you yanks call it. The pandemic was a disaster for the hospitality industry but a bonanza for the drinks industry. Fuelled by the income effect of furlough payments and not having to pay over half of ones disposable income on extortionate train fares, the online delivery industry expanded. Drivers delivering booze became key workers, just like nurses. Britain might be thought of a nation of middle class alcoholics, but it's all done behind closed doors and as such, is a very respectable form of substance abuse. Anyway, middle class people always place their emptied prosceco bottles in the correct coloured recycling bin. Then came the order to sober up and return to the office. Many have remained working from home.



On a Climate change note, Greta Thunberg has cancelled a special VIP guest appearance at the Edinburgh International Book Festival in 'protest' at one of the sponsors having a link to fossilised fuels. Cancel culture or she just doesn't fancy rowing across the North Sea to Scotland from her homeland in Westeros? Waste a few milliamps if you wish by clicking this > https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23701413.greta-thunberg-quits-edinburgh-festival-row-baillie-gifford/

« Last Edit: August 06, 2023, 02:50:03 pm by AndyBeez »
 

Offline vad

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #216 on: August 06, 2023, 03:11:31 pm »
Cancel culture or she just doesn't fancy rowing across the North Sea to Scotland from her homeland in Westeros?

Maybe she finally decided to finish high school and needs to sit in class?
 

Offline coppice

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #217 on: August 06, 2023, 04:50:51 pm »
Similarly, they should have phased out a whole lot of food additives, such as artificial colors and high fructose corn syrup. It would help improve health in general, which helps reduce severe Covid cases.
No promotion of vitamin D, locking people inside without exercise or outdoor exposure etc. Disgusting.
That's the same in the UK, and seems to be tied to the "everything's racist" industry. Until the late 1960s almost everyone in the UK was white. Some Caribbean people came to the UK in the 1950s, but that's about all. In the late 60s an influx of Indian and Pakistani people occurred. A few years later those people had small children. The muslim ones started turning up at doctors and hospitals with rickets, a disease that had pretty much disappeared from the UK. As more cases turned up, specialist clinics reopened. A public awareness campaign about vitamin D deficiency for brown skinned people in northern climates, especially those with a culture of completely covering their children, began. The problem subsided. Now its being realised that all brown skinned people in northern climates are somewhat low on vitamin D, especially through the winter, unless they supplement natural vitamin D. Even many white people are having problems because they spend so much time inside. Do we see a public health campaign about this? Nope. People are so afraid to point out that people have differences they try to ignore the problem.
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #218 on: August 06, 2023, 05:09:33 pm »
Perhaps we need a govmint decree for Vit D enriched booze?
I am working on another idea for the non drinking Moslems.
 

Offline bezzada

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #219 on: August 06, 2023, 05:42:48 pm »

So if the handlers of the people have decided to "push"  a global warming alarmist theme on us what is the benefit to them.

They want to limit fossil fuel use.  And this is to "control"  the people?    What do they get from causing us to freeze to death in the winter?

If ya think about the global elite make out the very best when society is functioning and everyone is working and paying their taxes.

Please elaborate on the supposed motives to enslave us by taking our fossil fuels.

I don't think it is necessarily about "enslavement" or any other "big reset" conspiracy theories. I think it is more like "fear driven marketing".   What would you do if you invested billions of dollars in the green energy technologies?  Wouldn't fear mongering be beneficial to promote your products?  Sounds like a very practical approach.  And it is very easy to back up one's doomsday agenda by all kinds of "scientific reports".   Then there are also climate change grifters like Al Gore who made millions on fear mongering and doomsday predictions that never came true. 

Here is a "confession of a climate scientist" by Mototaka Nakamura.
https://c-c-netzwerk.ch/images/ccn-blog_articles/717/Confessions-Nakamura.pdf

tl;dr:
He doesn't question the "global warming" hypothesis but only the "catastrophic" part of it. 
There are serious flaws in climate "forecasting" models that makes it possible to get any desired results based on arbitrary input parameters.
None of the climate simulation models used for predictions can reproduce the current climate accurately despite the heavy tuning efforts by climate researchers.   
It has not been proven that the warming effect actually results in a rise in the global mean surface temperature, because of the extremely complex processes operating in the real climate system that cannot be accurately predicted due the flaws in the grossly oversimplified models and lack of computational power required for better accuracy. For example the solar energy output is modeled as a constant(!).   A quasi-global observation system has been operating only for 50 years or so. Temperature data before then were collected over extremely small areas and, thus, have severe spatial bias. So we basically cannot rely on the pre-1980's data on the temperature trend. 

And most importantly, a lot of the research is privately funded including by the "green energy" corporations with a clear conflict of interest. Considering the uncertainty of the models based on the arbitrary tuning parameters, it is very easy to produce the desired results based on the sponsor's agenda.

And finally, even if you didn't know or understand any of these claims,  this is all you need to know about these climate activists:

 

Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #220 on: August 06, 2023, 09:34:51 pm »
I don't understand.  This man is an intellectual giant in the science community. He has aligned himself with the very unscientific group "co2coalition"

Co2 coalition has no credible challenge to anthropomorphic global warming.

why would a man with that history of achievement take such a position unless he really believed it to be the truth.

I realize this could be a very short thread before it is locked.   I ask every participant to just review the facts which are accepted in the scientific community and not go to conspiracy sources.

On the contrary I think that sceptical sources, relative to your own views, are exactly where you should be going, at least sometimes.  What better way to test and hone your own understanding?  Far better than relying on the judgement of others, even if they are Nobel laureates.

For example, if you know some maths and physics, then this page on the co2coalition website is quite enlightening.  It summarises a paper by Van Wijngaarden and Happer and includes the comment “Doubling the CO2 concentration increases the infrared absorption by only a few percent. The reason is that extensive saturation takes place”.

This isn’t saturation, it’s a logarithmic response, those few percent make all the difference.

On page 26 of the full paper linked to on the above page it states that “Doubling the standard concentration of CO2 (from 400 to 800 ppm) would only cause a forcing increase of ∆F {i} = 3.0 W/m2”.

Only? … Compare that figure with the figure of 2.16 (1.9 to 2.41) W/m2 for the approximately 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration between 1750 and 2019 that is given on this IPCC page.  2.16 W/m2 for a 50% increase is equivalent to 2.16 * log(2) / log(1.5) = 3.69 W/m2 for a doubling, so there is no substantial disagreement with the IPCC on the level of forcing.

In section 6 starting on page 43 of the W & H paper there is a short, mostly hand-waving type estimate of the climate sensitivity, which comes up with a figure of 1.3K for a doubling of the CO2 concentration. This is significantly lower than the IPCC estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3C (likely 2.5C to 4C, very likely 2C to 5C).  However, there are obvious weaknesses in their argument in this section.  They are explicitly doubling the concentration of CO2, but with no change in other greenhouse gas concentrations, which includes water vapour, a very significant amplifier for the sensitivity.  There is also no indication that they accounted for the rise in the relevant emission heights that this doubling will cause.  (They do briefly mention emission heights in the section of the paper where they calculate the forcing.)

On the other hand, in this later and similar paper by the same authors, in section 7 starting on page 21, they make a more detailed estimate of the sensitivity that does include changes in absolute humidity and emission heights.  Here they calculate a sensitivity of 2.3K as shown in the table on page 32, which also mentions a 1.4K figure for the unrealistic case of fixed absolute humidity.  This value of 2.3K is reasonably consistent with the IPCC value.

So does this paper demonstrate the claimed extensive saturation?  It doesn't look like it to me, but don't take my word for it, I'm just a nobody on the web with a rusty 40+ year old physics degree and too much spare time on his hands.  Read the papers and judge for yourself.

Co2 coalition just looks like an advocacy group to me.  What they say seems to be technically true, but heavily spun in a way to suit their own agenda, as is typical for such groups.  It may catch out the unwary, but life is like that, we live in an ocean of propaganda.  I guess that your intellectual giant isn't above bending the truth a little when it suits him, just like the rest of us.

Apologies to all for replying to a message so far back in this discussion, but I’m a slow thinker, and it took me a while to digest the papers.

Fixed W m2 to W/m2.  Ooops.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2023, 12:10:11 am by cbutlera »
 

Offline khs

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #221 on: August 06, 2023, 10:24:31 pm »
A simple VERY rough estimation:

Doubling CO2 increases effective power to 3 W/m²
Solar constant is about 1000 W/m²

So we get (1000 W/m² + 3 W/m²) / 1000 W / m²=1.003
We have about 273K+20K = 293K
So with 1.003 we get about 294K
So the temperature increases about 1K - if I'm not wrong.
 

Online tautech

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #222 on: August 06, 2023, 10:38:14 pm »
And then we have natural events that each impacted on the earths climate by way of ash and/or water ejection into the stratosphere.....are these included in climatic modeling ?
If not, why not ?

https://www.aeronomie.be/en/news/2021/30-years-after-mt-pinatubo-eruption-illustration-relationship-between-volcanoes-and
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
Avid Rabid Hobbyist.
Some stuff seen @ Siglent HQ cannot be shared.
 

Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #223 on: August 07, 2023, 12:02:14 am »
A simple VERY rough estimation:

Doubling CO2 increases effective power to 3 W/m²
Solar constant is about 1000 W/m²

So we get (1000 W/m² + 3 W/m²) / 1000 W / m²=1.003
We have about 273K+20K = 293K
So with 1.003 we get about 294K
So the temperature increases about 1K - if I'm not wrong.

An equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.3K isn’t my estimate, it’s from page 32 of Dependence of Earth's Thermal Radiation on Five Most
Abundant Greenhouse Gases
by Van Wijngaarden and Happer, two scientists whose papers are frequently cited on AGW sceptical websites.  They could be wrong.

1000 W/m2 is more like the peak solar power when the sun is directly overhead.  The earth intercepts a disc of solar radiation of area pi * R2, where R is the radius of the earth.  The surface area of the earth is 4 * pi * R2, so the average solar power is more like 1/4 of the peak power.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2023, 12:18:55 am by cbutlera »
 

Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #224 on: August 07, 2023, 08:03:09 am »
And then we have natural events that each impacted on the earths climate by way of ash and/or water ejection into the stratosphere.....are these included in climatic modeling ?
If not, why not ?

https://www.aeronomie.be/en/news/2021/30-years-after-mt-pinatubo-eruption-illustration-relationship-between-volcanoes-and
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

If the scientists on the AGW sceptical side of the argument believe that to be the case, then they should create and publish their own models that do include such effects, or adapt an existing published model.  What could be a more powerful counterargument to say the NASA GISS general circulation models than an alternative, scientifically plausible GCM, that fits the last few decades climate records just as accurately but does not require an increasing level of CO2 to do so?  As far as I am aware no such alternative GCMs exist and one has to ask why?
 


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