Author Topic: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.  (Read 31418 times)

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Offline tautech

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #225 on: August 07, 2023, 08:51:17 am »
If the scientists on the AGW sceptical side of the argument believe that to be the case, ..........
These were real events not some modelled BS but with a measurable impact on the atmosphere and the worlds weather/temperatures.
What's not to believe ?  :-//
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Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #226 on: August 07, 2023, 09:10:48 am »
If the scientists on the AGW sceptical side of the argument believe that to be the case, ..........
These were real events not some modelled BS but with a measurable impact on the atmosphere and the worlds weather/temperatures.
What's not to believe ?  :-//

That these type of effects are significant and have not been included in the GCMs.  I don't know if they have been included or not, but if the scientists on the AGW sceptical side think they are significant and have been ignored, then they should produce their own GCMs.  Even if they think that GCMs are complete BS, a scientifically plausible GCM that fits the climate records sufficiently well and doesn't require a rising level of CO2 to do so would still be a very effective counterargument.  Why don’t they create one?  Even if only to demonstrate that "you can prove anything you want with a model".  The counter to that statement is "well do it then".
 
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #227 on: August 07, 2023, 11:27:15 am »
Quote from: EEVblog on Yesterday at 02:06:02 am>Quote from: coppice on August 05, 2023, 06:44:01 pm>Quote from: PlainName on August 05, 2023, 06:03:17 pm
Quote
As a kid of the 80's I grew up with the fear of the Ozone layer being destroyed and we even had a TV show called Captain Planet and the Planeteers and that made a big thing about cleaning up the world. Yet it didn't do a thing to change stuff if the current press is to be believed.




Didn't the ban on CFCs fix that up? Can't recall any recent press stuff about this either way, so if you have a relevant link I'd be interested to see it.
It would appear that changes to CFC usage have reversed the problem, and the ozone holes have been closing up.

Last I heard, yes, it was healing, but it's taken 40 years or something.
The difference with CFC usage was that eliminating it didn't change, interrupt, or destroy anyone's life. It was an easy and obvious change which we just did pretty much overnight with almost no consequence.


But they replaced a lot of these "Ozone Depleters" with  mixtures of volatile hydrocarbons, typically propane, n-butane and isobutane.[1 

Isn't  hydrocarbon gas supposed to be really bad for global warming? 

The propellants do work fine in potato guns though.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #228 on: August 07, 2023, 12:06:27 pm »
But they replaced a lot of these "Ozone Depleters" with  mixtures of volatile hydrocarbons, typically propane, n-butane and isobutane.[1 

Isn't  hydrocarbon gas supposed to be really bad for global warming? 

The propellants do work fine in potato guns though.

The harm of a given gas per kg is measured as global warming potential, where 1.0 is equivalent to 1kg of CO2.

Propane GWP = ~0.072
Butane GWP = ~0.022

(both figures 20 year assessments)

So, no, essentially.

In fact, propane has been proposed as a refrigerant for small air conditioning systems given it causes so little harm if accidentally released - though its flammability is obviously of concern.
 
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #229 on: August 07, 2023, 02:50:45 pm »
So what is methane rating?
 

Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #230 on: August 07, 2023, 03:20:30 pm »
So what is methane rating?

You can Google these they're not secret.   It is around 85x at a 20 year timescale and about 25 over 100 year timescale.  Most climatologists seem to prefer the 20 year figure as it's more important to consider short term feedback loops, but either way methane emissions are bad news.

The GWP drops because methane decomposes to CO2 and H2O slowly due to UV in the upper atmosphere, which both have lower GWPs.
 
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Offline JustMeHere

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #231 on: August 07, 2023, 03:27:49 pm »
When plants die, they rot and release greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.  The grass will eventually become methane if the cow eats it or not.  Leaves from trees die and rot into greenhouse gasses too.  Limbs fall off and rot.  The tree itself will eventually die and rot away too.
 

Offline tautech

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #232 on: August 07, 2023, 09:11:56 pm »
When plants die, they rot and release greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.  The grass will eventually become methane if the cow eats it or not.  Leaves from trees die and rot into greenhouse gasses too.  Limbs fall off and rot.  The tree itself will eventually die and rot away too.
Yep.

At ground level more happens than most are aware.
The latest fad today is protection of biodiversity by way of waterway enhancements, fencing streams and adding plantings which exclude livestock where for millennia they have accessed their water requirements.

While a worthy cause it has never been properly thought through as it also excludes waterway maintenance and in time will create flooding problems as the waterways clog and become overgrown.

Slowly the watercourses will revert to an earlier natural swamp state full of rotting materials all exuding.....you guessed it, Methane !   |O

Further this worthy cause of planting and fencing waterways provides a wonderful superhighway for vermin to more easily spread far and wide to compromise the very thing Gubbermints are trying to enhance, biodiversity !  |O

It seems even the highly educated have little idea of what actually happens at ground level when blinded by apparent worthy projects.  ::)
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Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #233 on: August 07, 2023, 09:33:09 pm »
When plants die, they rot and release greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.  The grass will eventually become methane if the cow eats it or not.  Leaves from trees die and rot into greenhouse gasses too.  Limbs fall off and rot.  The tree itself will eventually die and rot away too.

Believe it or not this has been considered, methane eventually decomposes into CO2 in the atmosphere, and CO2 is converted into O2 via photosynthesis and stored via ocean processes.

Pre-industrialised society the rate that methane was created was not hazardous, because it decomposed quickly enough that feedback loops were not formed.

The fear is now as the climate warms we could see permafrost (such as the large plains in Siberia) start to melt which often releases trapped methane gas.  This could cause further warming and further releases and it doesn't matter how much in CO2 emissions we abate, the methane has a far more significant impact.

Current levels of methane are equivalent to roughly 50ppm additional CO2 (~15-20 years future CO2 emissions).

Tipping points like these are exceedingly difficult to assess, with huge error bars.   The risk is we unintentionally stray into one.
 

Offline tszaboo

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #234 on: August 08, 2023, 12:37:31 pm »
I don't think it is necessarily about "enslavement" or any other "big reset" conspiracy theories.
It's not a conspiracy theory. It's straight from their website:
https://www.weforum.org/focus/the-great-reset
Oh, and this is from yesterday:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/08/apprenticeships-could-change-the-way-americans-work-and-learn/

Can't afford a college degree? Work for free at this large company and receive their accolades that are useless everywhere else.
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #235 on: August 08, 2023, 01:27:36 pm »
Quote
Work for free at this large company

Where does it say you have to work for free? Apprenticeships are paid, internships are unpaid.
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #236 on: August 08, 2023, 02:55:34 pm »
Quote
Work for free at this large company

Where does it say you have to work for free? Apprenticeships are paid, internships are unpaid.

We need more apprenticeships, too many people getting degrees at university in subjects with little relevance to their interested subject area at huge expense.
 
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Offline Sal Ammoniac

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #237 on: August 08, 2023, 04:24:32 pm »
The fear is now as the climate warms we could see permafrost (such as the large plains in Siberia) start to melt which often releases trapped methane gas.  This could cause further warming and further releases and it doesn't matter how much in CO2 emissions we abate, the methane has a far more significant impact.

To put this into electrical engineering terms, this is a type of positive feedback. There are probably plenty of similar mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause even more warming and more detrimental change.
"That's not even wrong" -- Wolfgang Pauli
 
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Offline MarginallyStable

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #238 on: August 08, 2023, 04:53:44 pm »
Quote
There are probably plenty of similar mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause even more warming and more detrimental change.

Fear mongering about "mechanisms that we don't know". Let me rephrase this in another way

There are probably plenty of opposite mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause less warming/possible cooling and slow down/reverse change.

We then would fear the demise of the human race via cooling instead of warming.


 

Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #239 on: August 08, 2023, 05:58:55 pm »
Quote
There are probably plenty of similar mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause even more warming and more detrimental change.

Fear mongering about "mechanisms that we don't know". Let me rephrase this in another way

There are probably plenty of opposite mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause less warming/possible cooling and slow down/reverse change.

We then would fear the demise of the human race via cooling instead of warming.

Could you indicate what those opposite mechanisms are?  We know of human aerosol emissions slightly cooling the climate, but what else is there?

Methane permafrost is understood, the problem is, we have no way to accurately measure how much methane the permafrost contains.  It varies in concentration depending on the age of the marsh and the type of plant matter that is built up there.  Estimates range from equivalent 15% of human CO2 emissions to up to 50%, and the rate at which such gas could be released also varies, from most released by 2050 to most released by 2100.

 

Offline snarkysparkyTopic starter

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #240 on: August 08, 2023, 06:40:16 pm »
Quote
There are probably plenty of similar mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause even more warming and more detrimental change.

Fear mongering about "mechanisms that we don't know". Let me rephrase this in another way

There are probably plenty of opposite mechanisms that we don't know about yet that could cause less warming/possible cooling and slow down/reverse change.

We then would fear the demise of the human race via cooling instead of warming.

What does this mean ?

What is the relevance ?

It's like saying that if my house is on fire i might as well just stand by cause some unknown effect could put out the fire.
 

Offline vad

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #241 on: August 08, 2023, 06:49:17 pm »
Could you indicate what those opposite mechanisms are?
1) Photosynthesis
2) Reflection
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #242 on: August 08, 2023, 06:59:29 pm »
Quote
We then would fear the demise of the human race via cooling instead of warming.

To change the subject slightly, which would be, ah, least worst? I think we could keep warm in the cold, but it would be more difficult to get cool if it got hot. Though personally I prefer a nice summers day to winter...
 

Online Bud

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #243 on: August 08, 2023, 07:45:46 pm »
Depending on definition of 'cold' - vehicles would have difficulties to start, or not start at all, batteries would underperform and we will need to spend more energy, to keep them warm. And we'd need to go back to using animal fur for top clothing.
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Offline vad

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #244 on: August 08, 2023, 09:23:01 pm »
I was always wondering why there is the consensus in climate science, especially when other scientific fields often leave ample room for debate.

In physics, for example, there is no consensus on topics such as dark matter. The Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) theory, which is one of the alternatives to the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (LCDM) model, is still very much alive. Popular theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder is one of the vocal proponents of MOND. If you read scientific journals, you will find that in modern cosmology there is no consensus on topics such as the age of the Universe (some recent paper claims the age is twice as long), and that in physics of condensed matter there is no consensus on whether LK99 is really a superconductor.

However, in climate science, somehow there is consensus. I wonder why?

This short video explains how the consensus is manufactured:

 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #245 on: August 08, 2023, 09:58:51 pm »
Every time there is a claimed scientific consensus relayed by media on some topic with deep political implications, you know it smells funny.
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #246 on: August 08, 2023, 10:14:54 pm »
Quote
We then would fear the demise of the human race via cooling instead of warming.

To change the subject slightly, which would be, ah, least worst? I think we could keep warm in the cold, but it would be more difficult to get cool if it got hot. Though personally I prefer a nice summers day to winter...

If we were somehow emitting something that cooled the climate by too much, presumably it would be possible (with a few consequences) to just burn more fossil fuels to warm the climate by some equivalent amount.

The opposite idea is where things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection come into play, the idea that we can inject cooling, reflective aerosols into the atmosphere, like sulfur dioxide.   The risk is that we really don't understand what such huge quantities of SO2 would do to everything else.  It also offers no solution for the acidification of oceans by CO2 absorption.

Another interesting alternative I've heard proposed is a "solar sunshade" positioned roughly around L1, attenuating solar radiation by around 1%, though the cost and time required to launch it make climate abatement seem cheap.  Such methods bring short term fixes, but as CO2 levels rise, they eventually need to upgraded, and if a 1% shade is expected to require some 300 launches of a Starship class launcher to reach orbit, it doesn't really seem like a sustainable or economic solution.
 

Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #247 on: August 08, 2023, 10:43:11 pm »
...
In physics, for example, there is no consensus on topics such as dark matter.
...
However, in climate science, somehow there is consensus. I wonder why?


Because climate science does not lie at the outer boundaries of theoretical physics.
When there is only one credible theory it can hardly be surprising that there is a consensus.

There has long been consensus on all of the relevant thermodynamic and other physical laws on which climate science is built.  The basic theory of anthropogenic global warming is more than 100 years old.  Using modern GCMs (general circulation models) this theory has been thoroughly tested against the last 50 years or so of climate records.  Where are the alternative competing theories that can, when tested with GCMs, get even remotely as close to the same level of agreement with those records?
 

Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #248 on: August 08, 2023, 10:56:10 pm »
I was always wondering why there is the consensus in climate science, especially when other scientific fields often leave ample room for debate.

In physics, for example, there is no consensus on topics such as dark matter. The Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) theory, which is one of the alternatives to the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (LCDM) model, is still very much alive. Popular theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder is one of the vocal proponents of MOND. If you read scientific journals, you will find that in modern cosmology there is no consensus on topics such as the age of the Universe (some recent paper claims the age is twice as long), and that in physics of condensed matter there is no consensus on whether LK99 is really a superconductor.

A lack of consensus in the area of dark matter is hardly surprising given no one has actually been able to observe anything other than its proposed impacts on large galaxies and their neighbours. We don't even know if it actually exists or not, it's just that there doesn't seem to be a better explanation for their rotational characteristics, for instance.

There is reasonably strong consensus in other non-climate science fields.  For instance, quantum mechanics is more or less universally accepted as the explanation for the very small behaviors at the subatomic level.  There may be the odd disagreement here or there as to the theoretical level with things like string theory.   The same applies in climate science, but everyone agrees with the observed results even if they don't fully accept how things got there.

I don't know why you think the edge of theoretical physics is a good retort to some physical system that we can observe and model well with mostly well understood physical principles.   For instance, you can measure a good part of the LWIR absorption of CO2 very accurately using a $200 thermal camera and a blackbody. The emission profile of the sun is well understood.  Plug the two together and you have a first-order estimate for CO2 forcing in watts per m^2 per part million, then input the amount of CO2 that we've pushed into the atmosphere and you have a good estimate for warming.  There are lots of factors to correct, like the percentage of CO2 which ends up in oceans, but it'll show the effect closely enough if you struggle to believe that it exists at all.

No one serious in climate science disagrees that the planet is warming and that humans are causing it.  There's debate as to the exact extent of the anthropogenic component, and how harmful that is, but the consensus is pretty solid on the outcomes being overall bad.
 

Online vk6zgo

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #249 on: August 08, 2023, 11:19:00 pm »
I don't think it is necessarily about "enslavement" or any other "big reset" conspiracy theories.
It's not a conspiracy theory. It's straight from their website:
https://www.weforum.org/focus/the-great-reset
Oh, and this is from yesterday:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/08/apprenticeships-could-change-the-way-americans-work-and-learn/

Can't afford a college degree? Work for free at this large company and receive their accolades that are useless everywhere else.
Apprentices aren't like Interns---they get paid while they learn, which is fair, as they are a productive part of the workforce.
That was the standard way for most tradespeople to learn their trade for many years.
Anywhere that has a proper Apprenticeship system officially recognises Trade qualifications.
 


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