Author Topic: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.  (Read 31408 times)

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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #250 on: August 08, 2023, 11:30:33 pm »
Quote from: tom66 on Today at 10:56:10 pm>Quote from: vad on Today at 09:23:01 pm
I was always wondering why there is the consensus in climate science, especially when other scientific fields often leave ample room for debate.

In physics, for example, there is no consensus on topics such as dark matter. The Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) theory, which is one of the alternatives to the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (LCDM) model, is still very much alive. Popular theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder is one of the vocal proponents of MOND. If you read scientific journals, you will find that in modern cosmology there is no consensus on topics such as the age of the Universe (some recent paper claims the age is twice as long), and that in physics of condensed matter there is no consensus on whether LK99 is really a superconductor.

A lack of consensus in the area of dark matter is hardly surprising given no one has actually been able to observe anything other than its proposed impacts on large galaxies and their neighbours. We don't even know if it actually exists or not, it's just that there doesn't seem to be a better explanation for their rotational characteristics, for instance.

There is reasonably strong consensus in other non-climate science fields.  For instance, quantum mechanics is more or less universally accepted as the explanation for the very small behaviors at the subatomic level.  There may be the odd disagreement here or there as to the theoretical level with things like string theory.   The same applies in climate science, but everyone agrees with the observed results even if they don't fully accept how things got there.

I don't know why you think the edge of theoretical physics is a good retort to some physical system that we can observe and model well with mostly well understood physical principles.   For instance, you can measure a good part of the LWIR absorption of CO2 very accurately using a $200 thermal camera and a blackbody. The emission profile of the sun is well understood.  Plug the two together and you have a first-order estimate for CO2 forcing in watts per m^2 per part million, then input the amount of CO2 that we've pushed into the atmosphere and you have a good estimate for warming.  There are lots of factors to correct, like the percentage of CO2 which ends up in oceans, but it'll show the effect closely enough if you struggle to believe that it exists at all.

No one serious in climate science disagrees that the planet is warming and that humans are causing it.  There's debate as to the exact extent of the anthropogenic component, and how harmful that is, but the consensus is pretty solid on the outcomes being overall bad.


Anytime someone says something like "No one serious in climate science disagrees".  I get a bit dubious as to the actual facts.
This is the kind of statement that leads to ignoring or "cancelling" opposing views. This is exactly the type of speech used when the Governments imposed the COVID policies, which were not "scientific" or even logical.

 
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Offline vad

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #251 on: August 08, 2023, 11:33:50 pm »
...
In physics, for example, there is no consensus on topics such as dark matter.
...
However, in climate science, somehow there is consensus. I wonder why?


Because climate science does not lie at the outer boundaries of theoretical physics.
When there is only one credible theory it can hardly be surprising that there is a consensus.

There has long been consensus on all of the relevant thermodynamic and other physical laws on which climate science is built.  The basic theory of anthropogenic global warming is more than 100 years old.  Using modern GCMs (general circulation models) this theory has been thoroughly tested against the last 50 years or so of climate records.  Where are the alternative competing theories that can, when tested with GCMs, get even remotely as close to the same level of agreement with those records?

You didn't watch the video, did you? It's 7.5 minutes long. There couldn't be any alternative theory. Judith Curry clearly explains why.
 

Offline vad

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #252 on: August 08, 2023, 11:52:16 pm »
I don't know why you think the edge of theoretical physics is a good retort to some physical system that we can observe and model well with mostly well understood physical principles.
In fact, there are many similarities between cutting-edge physics theories and climate models. Neither can be validated through direct experiments. Validating string theory requires particle accelerators beyond our current technological capabilities, while validating climate models demands a planet similar to Earth and waiting time of hundreds of years.

You can find numerous scientific articles critical of string theory. How many climate models that contradict the Green’s agenda are you familiar with?
 
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Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #253 on: August 09, 2023, 09:08:01 am »
...
There has long been consensus on all of the relevant thermodynamic and other physical laws on which climate science is built.  The basic theory of anthropogenic global warming is more than 100 years old.  Using modern GCMs (general circulation models) this theory has been thoroughly tested against the last 50 years or so of climate records.  Where are the alternative competing theories that can, when tested with GCMs, get even remotely as close to the same level of agreement with those records?

You didn't watch the video, did you? It's 7.5 minutes long. There couldn't be any alternative theory. Judith Curry clearly explains why.

Did you watch it?  Where is this testable alternative theory described?  The video is almost entirely propaganda, built around a claim that 2006 was an unusually quiet year for hurricanes and storms.  Cherry picked newspaper headlines and video clips of talking heads prove nothing.

The current scientific consensus means the consensus as expressed by the IPCC in the full AR6 report.  Where in this report does it predict that hurricane and storm frequency will increase monotonically year on year?  Where in this report is there any claim that is not well supported by scientific research?
 

Offline coppice

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #254 on: August 09, 2023, 12:01:20 pm »
...
There has long been consensus on all of the relevant thermodynamic and other physical laws on which climate science is built.  The basic theory of anthropogenic global warming is more than 100 years old.  Using modern GCMs (general circulation models) this theory has been thoroughly tested against the last 50 years or so of climate records.  Where are the alternative competing theories that can, when tested with GCMs, get even remotely as close to the same level of agreement with those records?

You didn't watch the video, did you? It's 7.5 minutes long. There couldn't be any alternative theory. Judith Curry clearly explains why.

Did you watch it?  Where is this testable alternative theory described?  The video is almost entirely propaganda, built around a claim that 2006 was an unusually quiet year for hurricanes and storms.  Cherry picked newspaper headlines and video clips of talking heads prove nothing.

The current scientific consensus means the consensus as expressed by the IPCC in the full AR6 report.  Where in this report does it predict that hurricane and storm frequency will increase monotonically year on year?  Where in this report is there any claim that is not well supported by scientific research?
The video is about a woman who published a climate study that followed the general consus and was idolised. Then people pointed out flaws. She looked at them, realised some of what she had written was incorrect, and published the adjustments needed. For this she was vilified. The video is certainly mostly about propaganda, but is not propaganda.

Have you ever looked at any of the IPCC reports? Not the media's write ups about them, but the actual reports? When I have looked at exerts they sound much less scary than the media reports, but the activists don't like anything but the most extreme arguments.
 

Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #255 on: August 09, 2023, 01:03:59 pm »
...
The video is about a woman who published a climate study that followed the general consus and was idolised. Then people pointed out flaws. She looked at them, realised some of what she had written was incorrect, and published the adjustments needed. For this she was vilified. The video is certainly mostly about propaganda, but is not propaganda.

Have you ever looked at any of the IPCC reports? Not the media's write ups about them, but the actual reports? When I have looked at exerts they sound much less scary than the media reports, but the activists don't like anything but the most extreme arguments.

Yes I have looked at it many times, I have a copy of the full report open right now.  Before posting my earlier reply I searched through all 3056 pages of it for any evidence of a prediction that hurricane and storm frequency would increase monotonically year on year.  I found none.

I agree entirely that we should be discussing the contents of that IPCC report as representative of the scientific consensus rather than media reports.  So with that in mind I ask again, where in that IPCC report is there any claim that is not supported by scientific research?

I looked at the video carefully. Starting 2:00 minutes into the video the commentary says "But then some researchers pointed out gaps in her research. Years with low level of hurricanes... She realised her critics were right." The only evidence given to support this was a briefly shown document from Stephen McIntyre pointing out that hurricane and storm frequency was exceptionally low in 2006.  Let's assume that McIntyre's research is correct.  If Curry had previously claimed that hurricane and storm frequency would increase monotonically year on year, then she was right to reevaluate her own research.  Are you suggesting that she was vilified for changing her mind on a specific claim that was never a part of the consensus in the first place?

What was it that motivated her to abandon that consensus?  At what time mark in the video does she cite any credible scientific evidence to justify her dramatic change of position?
 

Offline Sredni

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #256 on: August 09, 2023, 04:06:18 pm »
Climate Research is therefore not yet a "complete" science, as the final experimental proof will be available in 30, 50, 100 years from now.
I suspect it will never be a complete science. It's just such a complex dynamic system, and our ability to accurately measure stuff on a global scale is limited.
Even in the 30, 50, 100 years time, the "proof" may not be available. The result might match a prediction, but having absolute proof your model was right will still be elusive.
They already have not had the best track record in this regard.
Can you name ONE complete science,  according to your definition?
If incomplete then there is no point ?

The ones that turn into practical engineering, you know, like electronics. Stuff that we've used and reproduce every day for centuries.

You have probably never read a solid state physics book.
Half the pages of every solid state book serve the sole purpose of telling you that what is written in the other half is an outright lie.  ;D

All instruments lie. Usually on the bench.
 

Offline cbutlera

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #257 on: August 09, 2023, 09:09:21 pm »
...
This short video explains how the consensus is manufactured:



As a counterexample to the Judith Curry video above referenced by vad, I thought that the video below looked interesting.  It's about libertarian conservative and former Cato institute energy analyst Jerry Taylor and coincidentally also features John Stossel, albeit briefly.  I'm not suggesting that the video carries any great significance, other than as an example that demonstrates that public figures can change their position on AGW in the other direction too.  I think that it is worth watching though, even if you don't agree with it, as was the Judith Curry video.  How can anyone know that they are on the right side of the argument, if they don't listen to what the other side has to say?


 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #258 on: August 09, 2023, 10:15:52 pm »
Who has actually read the IPCC reports in full?
 

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #259 on: August 09, 2023, 11:26:09 pm »
Who has actually read the IPCC reports in full?

The most interesting thing about the IPCC reports is the terminology they use, like "Likely", "Very Likely" etc, and they actually give a table for a % confidence level for what those terms actually mean. Once you understand what they mean, it opens your eyes bit.
 
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Offline beanflying

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #260 on: August 10, 2023, 12:19:12 am »
...
In physics, for example, there is no consensus on topics such as dark matter.
...
However, in climate science, somehow there is consensus. I wonder why?


Because climate science does not lie at the outer boundaries of theoretical physics.
When there is only one credible theory it can hardly be surprising that there is a consensus.

There has long been consensus on all of the relevant thermodynamic and other physical laws on which climate science is built.  The basic theory of anthropogenic global warming is more than 100 years old.  Using modern GCMs (general circulation models) this theory has been thoroughly tested against the last 50 years or so of climate records.  Where are the alternative competing theories that can, when tested with GCMs, get even remotely as close to the same level of agreement with those records?

You didn't watch the video, did you? It's 7.5 minutes long. There couldn't be any alternative theory. Judith Curry clearly explains why.

Follow the money! Her company gets and undisclosed percentage of income from the fossil fuel industry. Another chunk of her income comes from speaking to an Audience looking for her changed position to justify their behaviour.

We had to endure this same  :bullshit: play from the Tobacco industry 'scientists' for decades.
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Offline tautech

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Offline snarkysparkyTopic starter

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #263 on: August 10, 2023, 03:08:04 am »
just exactly how smart do ya have to be to be a climate science skeptic.

Like in IQ terms.

Lots of em here.  How smart are you genuises ?

 

Online EEVblog

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #264 on: August 10, 2023, 04:31:14 am »
just exactly how smart do ya have to be to be a climate science skeptic.

Smarter than those who can't comprehend that skepticism is inherently part of the scientific process itself, and there may be legitimate reasons to question some things.
 

Offline beanflying

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #265 on: August 10, 2023, 05:25:20 am »
Being Skeptical of ALL of one point of view has NOTHING to do with scientific anything, this is where the denial or die camp sits.

Questioning sure/absolutely but until you have a rational reasoned response that will hold up to peer review it is Skepticism not Science.
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Online RAPo

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #266 on: August 10, 2023, 06:33:26 am »
This is very unscientific reasoning.

Group think, afraid of losing a job, or just other financial interests can make people do strange things.

You have one report with multiple claims it could be that people agree on the individual claims and not on the end conclusion.

Right now 1500 scholars from all over the world signed a petition that there is no emergency situation regarding climate and strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050.

And exactly what kind of consensus we are talking about? Did you read "The scientific consensus of climate change revisited" from Dennis Bray on an earlier version of the IPCC report? Science does not have sweeping statements, but carefully worded exact statements.

I agree entirely that we should be discussing the contents of that IPCC report as representative of the scientific consensus rather than media reports.  So with that in mind I ask again, where in that IPCC report is there any claim that is not supported by scientific research?
« Last Edit: August 10, 2023, 06:35:51 am by RAPo »
 

Offline Sredni

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #267 on: August 10, 2023, 07:13:39 am »
About the 1500 scientists from around the world...

From https://www.desmog.com/climate-intelligence-foundation-clintel/

Quote
The Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) is a Netherlands-based1 climate science denial group founded in 2019 by retired professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and journalist Marcel Crok.2 Its principal view is that “there is no climate emergency.”3

According to Dutch broadcaster KRO-NCRV Pointer, the 800 “scientists, scholars, and professionals” that support CLINTEL have “conducted little to no climate research.”4 DeSmog analysis has found that the list of signatories includes a commercial fisherman, a retired chemist, a cardiologist, and an air-conditioning engineer, alongside a number of retired geologists.5

The organisation has close ties to Forum voor Democratie, the main Dutch nationalist party, and its leader Thierry Baudet, who has quoted statements by CLINTEL in the country’s House of Representatives.6

Various members of CLINTEL’s list of ambassadors, and its extended list of signatories, have connections to libertarian free-market groups with a history of climate science denial, including the Heartland Institute, the Cato Institute, and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.7 All three organisations are members of the Koch-funded Atlas Network.8 9

...


-----
Also, on a more general note, this yt video explains what these sort of think tanks are and why they exist.

https://youtu.be/3n3Hq7XSBjA
« Last Edit: August 10, 2023, 04:12:26 pm by Sredni »
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Offline PlainName

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #268 on: August 10, 2023, 07:41:55 am »
Hot off the press:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html

That's the DailyWail. Although they do break news and more regular sources catch up, I wouldn't take anything they post as pukka without it being confirmed elsewhere. In this case they quote Associated News, but on the AP website there is nothing.
 
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Online RAPo

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #269 on: August 10, 2023, 08:13:05 am »
What are you trying to say?
Are only the lefty parties in the Netherlands right about what is happening with the climate?
Is the statement about scepticism about how we are tackling the climate situation bad because it is from a right-wing party?
Is the statement the worldwide ambassadors are making, less true because of the situation in the Netherlands?
Are you saying only climate scientists may have a say? Is expertise from other sciences not allowed?
What exactly is wrong with "have connections to libertarian free-market groups"?
Can you imagine that free-market groups can develop better ideas for climate adaptation (if needed) than the government?
In order to pay for the climate plans, you need money, and money comes from economic growth, or are you propagating more and more state debts?

About the 1500 scientists from around the world...

From https://www.desmog.com/climate-intelligence-foundation-clintel/


The Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) is a Netherlands-based1 climate science denial group founded in 2019 by retired professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and journalist Marcel Crok.2 Its principal view is that “there is no climate emergency.”3

According to Dutch broadcaster KRO-NCRV Pointer, the 800 “scientists, scholars, and professionals” that support CLINTEL have “conducted little to no climate research.”4 DeSmog analysis has found that the list of signatories includes a commercial fisherman, a retired chemist, a cardiologist, and an air-conditioning engineer, alongside a number of retired geologists.5

The organisation has close ties to Forum voor Democratie, the main Dutch nationalist party, and its leader Thierry Baudet, who has quoted statements by CLINTEL in the country’s House of Representatives.6

Various members of CLINTEL’s list of ambassadors, and its extended list of signatories, have connections to libertarian free-market groups with a history of climate science denial, including the Heartland Institute, the Cato Institute, and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.7 All three organisations are members of the Koch-funded Atlas Network.8 9

-----
Also, on a more general note, this yt video explains what these sort of think tanks are and why they exist.

https://youtu.be/3n3Hq7XSBjA
« Last Edit: August 10, 2023, 08:15:19 am by RAPo »
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #270 on: August 10, 2023, 08:49:14 am »
Quote
Are you saying only climate scientists may have a say? Is expertise from other sciences not allowed?

Not specifically about climate but as a comment in general, shouldn't those versed in the arts be given a bit more credibility that those that think they have an opinion? In other words, are we happy that, say, a geologist might come on here and tell us where we're going wrong with PCB layout as an equal to those laying out PCBs as a job?
 

Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #271 on: August 10, 2023, 09:07:09 am »
Hot off the press:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html

That's the DailyWail. Although they do break news and more regular sources catch up, I wouldn't take anything they post as pukka without it being confirmed elsewhere. In this case they quote Associated News, but on the AP website there is nothing.

Even so, if you actually read it, it's basically "this last decade warmed a little slower than anticipated according to X model, we shouldn't highlight this because it's does not appear representative of the overall trend and there's no reason to believe it means that climate change isn't happening".

Which is a totally reasonable point of view.  Nothing is being hidden.
 

Offline bookaboo

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #272 on: August 10, 2023, 10:04:12 am »
About the 1500 scientists from around the world...

From https://www.desmog.com/climate-intelligence-foundation-clintel/


The Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) is a Netherlands-based1 climate science denial group founded in 2019 by retired professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and journalist Marcel Crok.2 Its principal view is that “there is no climate emergency.”3

According to Dutch broadcaster KRO-NCRV Pointer, the 800 “scientists, scholars, and professionals” that support CLINTEL have “conducted little to no climate research.”4 DeSmog analysis has found that the list of signatories includes a commercial fisherman, a retired chemist, a cardiologist, and an air-conditioning engineer, alongside a number of retired geologists.5

The organisation has close ties to Forum voor Democratie, the main Dutch nationalist party, and its leader Thierry Baudet, who has quoted statements by CLINTEL in the country’s House of Representatives.6

Various members of CLINTEL’s list of ambassadors, and its extended list of signatories, have connections to libertarian free-market groups with a history of climate science denial, including the Heartland Institute, the Cato Institute, and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.7 All three organisations are members of the Koch-funded Atlas Network.8 9

-----
Also, on a more general note, this yt video explains what these sort of think tanks are and why they exist.

https://youtu.be/3n3Hq7XSBjA

So their professional opinion is invalid because they previously expressed the same opinion?

 

Online RAPo

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #273 on: August 10, 2023, 10:10:14 am »
If she or he has a good idea that works, why not.

Not specifically about climate but as a comment in general, shouldn't those versed in the arts be given a bit more credibility that those that think they have an opinion? In other words, are we happy that, say, a geologist might come on here and tell us where we're going wrong with PCB layout as an equal to those laying out PCBs as a job?
 

Offline tom66

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Re: heartbroken that John Clauser seems to have joined climate change denial.
« Reply #274 on: August 10, 2023, 10:21:38 am »
So their professional opinion is invalid because they previously expressed the same opinion?

Why would their professional opinion matter when they are not professionals in the field of climate science?

They are entitled to an opinion, but being a cardiologist doesn't mean you have the chops to opine accurately on climate science, and your opinion is not more relevant than any other educated person that can understand basic scientific principles.

These types of think tanks push these surveys and studies all of the time because they sound authoritative, but they're really not.
 


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