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How is Chipageddon affecting you?

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peter-h:
I think moving some business out of China will reduce their arrogance a bit, which is a good thing. And right now there is an undeniable political risk. It's totally crazy to be trading with a country which wants to invade the place where most of the more complex chips we use are made. This "trade will ensure stability" didn't work with Russia but Germany (and others) completely disregarded the fact that Russia keeps war and trade totally separate. China is a bit smarter about this stuff but they are still apparently hoping to have a go.

tom66:
Russia's economy is much less developed than China's though, and it's highly dependent upon oil and gas revenues.  The cost to Russia of the invasion is to lose the ability to sell most natural gas to Europe, but Putin's gamble was apparent to all.  Capture Kyiv quickly (that's why VDV - Russian airborne forces - was at Hostomel day 1 of the invasion), install a puppet government, and hope Europe is so desperate for gas during a time of already heightened gas prices and low storage levels that they are too afraid to do anything.  This appeared to work for some member states,  Germany was very reluctant to intervene, holding back on all sorts of sanctions, and effectively had to be bullied into them.  But, ultimately the gamble failed, because Europe supported Ukraine, and thanks to Russian incompetence, the military failed to capture the capital.   Putin's objectives, once the puppet state was installed, would be to export the large amount of gas in Donbas to the mainland to sell on to Europe (the existing Siberian fields are running dry) and to retain a secondary buffer state against NATO, which he sees as a threat.  Russia had already invaded Ukraine, in 2014, with limited response from the EU, so what was another invasion anyway?

It's not impossible that China would turn against the West for Taiwan, but if their aim is to recapture Taiwan for technology, what is the point in doing so if so much of that technology is dependent upon the West?  I think China knows this all too well.  Not to mention, Taiwan has limited wealth outside of technology, no major natural resources, and Taiwan is a small island.  55% of their exports are technology related.  The economy of Taiwan is relatively small (~5% of China's).  The GDP of Taiwan is comparable to around 1-2 years worth of Chinese exports.  The population of Taiwan would not integrate well with the mainland, there would be too much political opposition, protests, riots, sabotage etc.  So the only reason for China to invade would be for political aims, to fulfill the objective of returning Taiwan to China, based on a corrupted ideology.  It is not impossible to believe that could happen, of course, but it does seem unlikely. 

I do think it is essential that semiconductor manufacturing not be concentrated in a few countries though, if only for long term economic stability.

VK3DRB:

--- Quote from: tom66 on December 27, 2022, 10:39:11 pm ---...I do think it is essential that semiconductor manufacturing not be concentrated in a few countries though, if only for long term economic stability.

--- End quote ---

I have been saying that for the since the Sumitomo semiconductor plastics fire in the 90's. All eggs in one basket is risky, especially in dodgy countries run by communist dictators. In the electronics industry, JIT was never a great idea because it relies on everything in the supply chain working like clockwork at all times. At the moment, a hybrid approach seems a lot safer - stockpile those critical single-source chips that are at risk, buy do JIT on the jelly bean parts.

Microchip and Texas Instruments have some chips starting to appear on the market again and some lead times are reducing a little. The big question is can we ever trust these companies again? Maybe after their CEOs resign and they get new blood in who are competent and customer focused. I did a hardware design and embedded coding for a client using a TI MSP430 variant. These chips became unobtainable for SME's like pretty much everything from TI, but when 2000 appeared at TI Direct, I strongly urged my client to buy 1000 chips immediately for his first small production run in a few months because there is no guarantee those chips will be available again in the medium term when he needs them. He bought them plus some 1000 battery charger chips, and he can now sleep at night.

peter-h:

--- Quote --- In the electronics industry, JIT was never a great idea because it relies on everything in the supply chain working like clockwork at all times.
--- End quote ---

JIT never really existed. It is a euphemism for a big company (customer) shafting a small company (supplier) into keeping stock free of charge. In electronics especially, it can't work.

Karel:

--- Quote from: VK3DRB on December 28, 2022, 04:27:36 am ---Maybe after their CEOs resign and they get new blood in who are competent and customer focused.
--- End quote ---

With a few exceptions, CEO's now are all shareholder focused. I don't see that changing soon.

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