TPS61178. Today is actually earmarked for designing a PCB with an alternative…
o_OTPS61178. Today is actually earmarked for designing a PCB with an alternative…
OH DAMN! Your line about the TPS chip reminded me to check out the TPS22918 which I used in a design recently. There were many thousands around around a couple of months ago. Now... nil stock everywhere |O. I had done all the regulation testing, transient testing etc. I feel like we are wasting our time and we should send Texas Instruments a bill.
I have a friend in compliance testing in the USA. He said things are so bad, companies are not sending product for testing because they cannot even make engineering test samples of their product.
How the fuck are we supposed to design anything when parts simply vanish overnight without warning?!Wishful thinking? Thoughts and prayers? :p
How the fuck are we supposed to design anything when parts simply vanish overnight without warning?!
...
One thing's for sure though, as another poster mentioned, just-in-time manufacturing is history for now.
The 4kV isolated switching transformer from Wurth 750315240 I used on one product. Nil stock world wide. No lead time. No alternatives.
Have I just been unlucky here or are other engineers in the electronics industry also feeling the pinch? If so, what parts/manufacturers should be avoided?Probably you are best off to stay away from any part... Although I must say all parts for a design I'm currently working on are still available. It is not all bad. OTOH I have some boards in production and no confirmed lead times yet and for several of these I have started ordering parts early this year which didn't prevent needing to re-design some boards to use a different package. Fortunately these boards needed a respin anyway otherwise it would have added more costs. Like all part shortages: it will go away at some point.
This is bound to cause huge price inflation, eventually...Inflation was already baked in due to the huge deficit effects of printing money for the "COVID Bailout" programs in countries across the globe. It's a fundamental rule of Economics: When there are more units of currency in circulation, each one has less purchasing power and prices rise accordingly.
This is bound to cause huge price inflation, eventually...Inflation was already baked in due to the huge deficit effects of printing money for the "COVID Bailout" programs in countries across the globe. It's a fundamental rule of Economics: When there are more units of currency in circulation, each one has less purchasing power and prices rise accordingly.
It used to be that the political parties out of power at the moment decried deficit spending for political advantage. Now it appears everyone is jumping on the short-term gravy train. "Spend Money" is the mode o' the day. In the very short term a cash infusion may make you feel "flush" but prices catch up eventually, and it's a one-way ratchet.
Inflation is coming. Plan your personal financial life with it in mind.
Not sure what you can do to help your personal financial life... when prices go up, your standard of living will drop until your own company can "claw back the loss" and increase wages again, it is what it is.The historical reaction to inflation is to get out of cash and into hard assets. Ultimately, currency is simply a conveyor of wealth. If the perceived value of one item is the same as one piece of another item, absent artificial manipulation their "price" (in the terms of whatever currency is in vogue at the time) will equalize.
Usually inflation is considered a "bad" thing... what seems to have happened is that the last generation to experience real inflation must have retired or even died...Inflation favors borrowers by allowing them to pay back their debts with less value. A dollar borrowed today is worth a more than a dollar paid back 20 years from now, due to inflation. If you're comfortable with debt, now is a great time to borrow money because interest rates haven't yet internalized the actual inflation rate. Disclaimer: I am not comfortable with debt and do not encourage others to take on debt. I've seen what happens to indebted people when the economy gets into even mild trouble, and my parents grew up during the Depression which left a scar on them that transferred to me. YMMV, make your own choices, etc. This is just a fun conversation about armchair economics and not financial advice.
It used to be that the political parties out of power at the moment decried deficit spending for political advantage.
Now it appears everyone is jumping on the short-term gravy train. "Spend Money" is the mode o' the day. In the very short term a cash infusion may make you feel "flush" but prices catch up eventually, and it's a one-way ratchet.
Inflation is coming. Plan your personal financial life with it in mind.
A currency has value only because 1) society agrees it conveys wealth, and 2) there's a restricted supply of it. If you suddenly flood the economy with 100X as much currency, the perceived value of those two pieces won't change but their price - expressed in that currency - will increase by 100X because it takes 100X as much of that currency to transfer the same amount of wealth between buyer and seller.
This is why hard assets are popular in times of rampant inflation. There's an old story about the currency in some country being so worthless that a guy used a wheelbarrow to carry enough of it to the store to buy a loaf of bread. It wouldn't fit through the door so the guy left it outside, confident it was so worthless that no one would bother stealing the money. When he came back out, his money was in a huge pile on the ground - and someone had stolen the wheelbarrow!
Note that rampant inflation is only possible with fiat money - money backed by nothing inherently valuable. If your coins are made from precious metals their value can never drop below the value of the metal each coin contains. If your paper/cloth scrip is freely exchangable for gold or silver (think: gold and silver certificates) its value can never drop below the equivalent amount of that precious metal. But when coins are made from zinc, aluminum, etc. and your scrip is not redeemable for precious metals, its "value" can be freely manipulated by (at least) the issuer.
As a seller of Arduino stuff... Pro Micros from China (ATMega32U4) have basically doubled in price, that's if the vendor actually has them rather than just saying they have them.That's crazy
How the fuck are we supposed to design anything when parts simply vanish overnight without warning?!Repeat after me:
I didn't say they were fiscally conservative. I said they picked on deficit spending when it furthered their political interests. Trust me, I have no illusions about politicians actually having core values - regardless of their supposed political affiliations, which also are based on political calculations.It used to be that the political parties out of power at the moment decried deficit spending for political advantage.They haven't been "fiscally conservative" for at least a generation. I'm not sure that they ever were, as such... but I'm not a big scholar on last-century policy.
Spending, is something the government has almost unlimited capability for; as long as the economy continues to grow, revenues can always be made back. It might take an extraordinary time to do so -- some war debts have taken over a century to settle -- but that's something only an entire country can do, for us.There doesn't seem to be any plan for "settling" the USA's national debt. It would be entertaining to see a "balanced" budget that actually had zero debt projections, regardless of time scale. Political suicide for whomever proposed it.
Is someone printing that much money? They probably shouldn't, though they may have a reason (likely a bad reason) for doing so.Not to my knowledge in the first world. Maybe Venezuela? I used a big ratio to help illustrate the relationship over a brief time period. The same rules apply over longer periods, but with small enough ratios that the frog doesn't realize it's being cooked.
Well, no. Metal is useful to a point, but the value of gold is greatly overstated compared to its value."Value" is the price a willing seller accepts from willing buyer. Things like price controls may seek to artificially manipulate prices but that doesn't change the rule, it just temporarily distorts the market. And generally the market finds a way around the corruption. Think BGP for economics! It routes around the damage.
Historical examples abound; value is simply what everyone thinks it is, regardless of material.Agreed, which is what I said above. But dump a bunch of that material into the market and its value per unit will drop because of its lack of scarcity. Your hope for economical iridium is a perfect example. Nobody values that which is abundantly available because everyone else can get it just as easily. By the way, this is the main reason the US Gov't polices counterfeiting... if scarcity of currency didn't matter they wouldn't care. But it does, so they do.
The 4kV isolated switching transformer from Wurth 750315240 I used on one product. Nil stock world wide. No lead time. No alternatives.
Have seen similar parts like this,
https://productfinder.pulseelectronics.com/api/open/product-attachments/datasheet/ph9185.034nl
though not the low inductance. If you're desperate, maybe slap an inductor in parallel with one winding? ::)
At least for transformers, there's nothing stopping you quoting a custom run from someone else in just a few weeks. Oh, or hmm, Coilcraft might have an equivalent, no idea.
Tim
A shortage, you say; a SHORTAGE? I’d better buy EVERYTHING in case the sky falls in. What’s that you say - my buying EVERYTHING will ironically cause MORE shortages? Oh well.
Human logic = ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I place alternative part footprints, and compatible parts on the PCB. And look for an alternative which is in stock, when they ask me to do so. Otherwise this is what you say to managers:
"What do you want me to do? Give birth to a reel of ICs?"
Cypress PSoC 5 is now unobtainium, lead time from Digi-key is 28 weeks. FML.
Ironically once a few things get in short supply, people stocking up in response makes loads of other parts dry up overnight that would have otherwise been plenty of stock, and pretty soon we have the toilet paper fiasco all over again. It doesn't even have to be anyone buying obscene quantities of stuff, all it takes is a whole bunch of people buying a few extra at the same time and suddenly everyone is sold out.
Other brokers (eg Win-Source) are just taking the piss with bait-and-switch, they advertise at one price, take your money, then tell you "the engineer found problems with that batch, but we still have stock at 2x/3x the price, please send more money" and if you accept, they take your money but won't send you an updated invoice. What's more they take a week to tell you, so holding you up even further. Avoid Win-Source unless you're absolutely desperate: when they finally deliver, the parts are kosher IME.
The only non disruptive way to move an entire industry from JIT to 6 month stock would be rationing.
This is going to take a long time to settle down with a ton of casualties along the way.
Thank God I'm retired and sniff glue all day. (Not the cheap stuff either)
Bexigeddon+chipageddon >notageddon!
IT WILL ALL BE OK.
Hipsters with queer coffees in jam jars are ready to create the new ecconomy. Probably from the back of a scooter.
JIT is gambling, it's like removing the safety features from a car to make it go faster. It will make the car lighter and faster, but if/when there is an accident you'll probably wish you hadn't done that.That is an excellent analogy, which I'm going to shamelessly steal and use myself! ;D
Right now it's not affecting me personally but it does worry me about the future. Right now everything I have/need works, but if something breaks or I need a replacement then I'm kind of out of luck. This chip shortage has painted a grim picture of how fragile the entire factory to home ecosystem is though. It's crazy how there is basically zero contingency at all. Same deal with that ship that was stuck in the canal, it's insane to think that just a few days can really disrupt everything so badly.OTOH: where are you going to store a week's worth of goods being shipped in?
And I do agree JIT is such a bad way of doing things... but it's probably the cheapest and that's what all the big head honchos at the top care about unfortunately.
OTOH: where are you going to store a week's worth of goods being shipped in?
Remember this?Other brokers (eg Win-Source) are just taking the piss with bait-and-switch, they advertise at one price, take your money, then tell you "the engineer found problems with that batch, but we still have stock at 2x/3x the price, please send more money" and if you accept, they take your money but won't send you an updated invoice. What's more they take a week to tell you, so holding you up even further. Avoid Win-Source unless you're absolutely desperate: when they finally deliver, the parts are kosher IME.
F***ers.
This time I told them to either ship at the advertised price (that they're still advertising by the way), or immediately refund.
Remember this?Other brokers (eg Win-Source) are just taking the piss with bait-and-switch, they advertise at one price, take your money, then tell you "the engineer found problems with that batch, but we still have stock at 2x/3x the price, please send more money" and if you accept, they take your money but won't send you an updated invoice. What's more they take a week to tell you, so holding you up even further. Avoid Win-Source unless you're absolutely desperate: when they finally deliver, the parts are kosher IME.
F***ers.
This time I told them to either ship at the advertised price (that they're still advertising by the way), or immediately refund.
Win-source is seemingly less honourable than most brokers. Brokers know what parts are nil stock world wide. If they know you need them desperately, the dodgy ones will gouge you. By the way, "Allison" is an alias.
A reputable broker in the USA is Commodity Components International in Peabody, MA. I visited them when I was in the US and found them to be very professional. IBM used them as a trusted source so they don't sell dodgy components. The fact that CCI's CEO gave me tickets to a Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees game with one of their managers did not influence my opinion of them :-+ . I suggest you contact them for your RF amp chip.
Hint: Do not contact more than a few brokers for high volume parts, because that can create an artificial high demand for scarce parts and the price skyrockets.
By the way, we have a PC parts store near me called Computer and Parts Land, which makes the worst brokers look good. From first hand experience, they have charged more than the advertised price if the part is in high demand (illegal). They also charge a 15% restocking fee if something does not work as advertised (illegal), don't honour warranty (illegal), and do a lot of other dodgy stuff. Entertaining reading from disgruntled former customers...https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/computer-parts-land (https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/computer-parts-land)
Maybe there should be a special review site for component vendors (TI Direct, Microchip Direct, Digikey, Arrow, LCSC, brokers etc). Maybe even EEVBLOG could host this. Just an idea.
There is this: https://www.supplierblacklist.com/blacklisted-suppliers/ (https://www.supplierblacklist.com/blacklisted-suppliers/).
D you have a 4 hour approval process? Good for you. For me its once a week normally. I told them its not going to work, but I'm supposed to "predict the need of parts ahead of time, once a week is perfectly normal". And that's just the approval, then supply chain looks at it whenever they feel like, and order it. I've been waiting for an enclosure for 3 weeks now.I place alternative part footprints, and compatible parts on the PCB. And look for an alternative which is in stock, when they ask me to do so. Otherwise this is what you say to managers:
"What do you want me to do? Give birth to a reel of ICs?"
you can also say buy the god damn part when i tell you to
we are stocking components on our own also because the contractor has to go through a lenghty process. Not good when the part available at a moment is vanished 4 hours later when the approval process has ended
And how big is that going to be? Look at the volume that enters a big harbour on a daily basis. Or the sheer volume of materials that a car manufacturing plant needs. Probably these kind of operations need 2 or 3 times the amount of land surface compared to the current situation. The companies I worked for that did some kind of production work had about 2/3th of the floor space dedicated to materials storage already.OTOH: where are you going to store a week's worth of goods being shipped in?
In a warehouse, storage room, or other appropriate facility.
D you have a 4 hour approval process? Good for you. For me its once a week normally. I told them its not going to work, but I'm supposed to "predict the need of parts ahead of time, once a week is perfectly normal". And that's just the approval, then supply chain looks at it whenever they feel like, and order it. I've been waiting for an enclosure for 3 weeks now.I place alternative part footprints, and compatible parts on the PCB. And look for an alternative which is in stock, when they ask me to do so. Otherwise this is what you say to managers:
"What do you want me to do? Give birth to a reel of ICs?"
you can also say buy the god damn part when i tell you to
we are stocking components on our own also because the contractor has to go through a lenghty process. Not good when the part available at a moment is vanished 4 hours later when the approval process has ended
And how big is that going to be? Look at the volume that enters a big harbour on a daily basis. Or the sheer volume of materials that a car manufacturing plant needs. Probably these kind of operations need 2 or 3 times the amount of land surface compared to the current situation. The companies I worked for that did some kind of production work had about 2/3th of the floor space dedicated to materials storage already.
Here is something I wonder about. Does the procurement strategy of electronic components depend on the background of engineering management? Specifically, if there is there a difference if engineering management comes from an Electrical Engineering background compared to Mechanical Engineering.
How the fuck are we supposed to design anything when parts simply vanish overnight without warning?!Repeat after me:
"This is some else's problem."
Say it every day 3x while looking into the mirror in the morning.
I place alternative part footprints, and compatible parts on the PCB. And look for an alternative which is in stock, when they ask me to do so. Otherwise this is what you say to managers:
"What do you want me to do? Give birth to a reel of ICs?"
Talking to my half-brother today and he was buying up as many hard drives as he could get his hands on as Chia mining is something he's doing, he has over 500TB and counting - apparently you can't buy any 8TB or 14TB drives any more and it's getting progressively harder to buy 4TB disks. So if you were enjoying cheap hard disks then that's coming to an end now, just like other crypto made GPU prices insane.Is there no end to this cryptocurrency stupidity? :palm: Cryptocurrency should be banned for environmental reasons.
Is there no end to this cryptocurrency stupidity? :palm: Cryptocurrency should be banned for environmental reasons.No reason to ban it in general, maybe just the inefficient ones. Perhaps someone will eventually come up with a cryptocurrency that's efficient and stays that way. So far, I have been mining Swagbucks for 5 years and it's still profitable, but it has so many other problems that I would say the energy efficient mining is the only thing good about it.
Is there no end to this cryptocurrency stupidity? :palm: Cryptocurrency should be banned for environmental reasons.No reason to ban it in general, maybe just the inefficient ones. Perhaps someone will eventually come up with a cryptocurrency that's efficient and stays that way. ..
Already is. Its called Chia coin, which uses much less energy. It uses a lot of hard disk space rather than CPU crunching power. If this gets big, SSD's will be in short supply. Some SSD manufacturers are voiding warranty if SSD's are used to mine coins.It's a bit early to say if it will remain efficient or even profitable for long. Besides, if it's anything like Burstcoin (which I mined back in the day), it ends up getting similar energy efficiency to mining (other) altcoins with cheap smartphones but the initial hardware cost is much higher. For reference, my Swagbucks miner is currently making about $10/month while using about 3W. Swagbucks mining is limited by IP addresses (specifically residential IPs in the US and a few other countries) although how they enforce that brings a lot of drawbacks.
There is every reason to ban it. Whether it is hard drives or electricity, good resources go to waste (in a time where we should be moving to sustainable ways of life anyway and even worse in times of component shortages) on 'currency' which is fundamentally flawed because it is based on something which is rare. Please study the reasons behind the regular currencies no longer being backed by gold or other precious metals. The very short explaination is: because it is not workable for today's economy. Which in turn means cryptocurrencies that need to be mined are a dead end; they will never replace regular currencies.Is there no end to this cryptocurrency stupidity? :palm: Cryptocurrency should be banned for environmental reasons.No reason to ban it in general, maybe just the inefficient ones. Perhaps someone will eventually come up with a cryptocurrency that's efficient and stays that way.
Cryptocurrency is just idiotic any way you slice it. The only reason it's "worth" anything is because it is in limited supply and relies on some finite resource to mine it, whether that be electricity or GPUs or hard drives. It has become a massive environmental problem, consuming enormous amounts of energy and creating many tons of waste from all the hardware that is used just doing useless busy work, and it drives up prices on commodities that people could do something useful with.IPv4 addresses are finite, but using one for Swagbucks mining does not interfere with other uses for that address. Likewise, although bandwidth (for a given link) is finite, it's not really something that can be conserved or stored for use at a later time. Helium is an altcoin mined by hosting LoRa hotspots, which is great as a concept but the greedy creators ruined the implementation. (Time for some not so greedy creator to make an alternative based on hosting Wifi hotspots that are backed by something like Tor, I2P, or VPN services?)
Cryptocurrency is just idiotic any way you slice it. The only reason it's "worth" anything is because it is in limited supply and relies on some finite resource to mine it, whether that be electricity or GPUs or hard drives. It has become a massive environmental problem, consuming enormous amounts of energy and creating many tons of waste from all the hardware that is used just doing useless busy work, and it drives up prices on commodities that people could do something useful with.You are talking about "proof of work" cryptos, that are 1 and 2nd generation.
It would really make my day if somebody found a way to crack it or some other event occurred that made the entire cryptocurrency economy collapse and implode and all of it become worthless. Making it a crime to mine it would be difficult to enforce but I would support that 100%. Some day people are going to look back on that fad and shake their head and the enormous amount of resources that went into producing worthless sequences of numbers.
You are talking about "proof of work" cryptos, that are 1 and 2nd generation.
There are "proof of stake" cryptos, that work entirely differently. Impossible to mine, and the energy usage is orders of mangitudes less. I mean a million times less. There are coins that are run by a dozen or so servers, without extreme hashing, just a CPU working for less than 2 seconds, when there is a transaction. Its more efficient, faster and cheaper than Visa.
There are POS networks, where the nodes are run by community elected validators.You are talking about "proof of work" cryptos, that are 1 and 2nd generation.
There are "proof of stake" cryptos, that work entirely differently. Impossible to mine, and the energy usage is orders of mangitudes less. I mean a million times less. There are coins that are run by a dozen or so servers, without extreme hashing, just a CPU working for less than 2 seconds, when there is a transaction. Its more efficient, faster and cheaper than Visa.
A proof of stake crypto is, by definition, not decentralised though. The 'whole idea' behind cryptocurrency was that no government could ever shut it down or stop the flow of crypto. That is what makes it appealing, the problem is solving the mining issue without requiring ludicruous resources.
Proof of stake is no better than just using, say, 'Visa' because it is the same as Visa, but run by a different company. PayPal was a startup once, now it is evil and not a startup. The same will happen to a proof of stake crypto.
Cheaper SSDs can be killed within a month as the plot files are large for Chia. In the end, you are looking at many SSDs and even though generally power draw is "less", you're burning through SSDs at a high rate. There'll be an increased demand of SSDs due to burning through them quickly; not entirely sure this is going to be very ecofriendly long term.If my understanding of how it works is correct, perhaps a solution to that would be to use RAM to generate the plot files? Probably best done in the cloud since I read that it's on the order of a TB.
Repeat after me:This is good advice. Do your best. Communicate clearly about the situation. There's nothing else you can do and if someone can't deal with that, you deserve something better.
"This is some else's problem."(..)
"What do you want me to do? Give birth to a reel of ICs?"
The only reason it's "worth" anything is because it is in limited supply and relies on some finite resource to mine itThat's the definition of value. Taken to the bottom, value is driven by (demand / prevalence). Low demand and/or high prevalence lowers value. High demand and/or low prevalence raises value. Examples include air... nobody even thinks about "paying" for air on the surface of the earth yet it's literally the most valuable substance within a spacecraft or submarine. Another would be water, which has a ridiculously low cost per bulk gallon in most developed cities yet is priceless to someone stranded in a desert. Meanwhile the value of sand in that desert is virtually zero because it's readily available and there are few immediate uses for it.
Prevalence has a locality aspect to it. I often explain to children that much of historical commerce was based on two main characteristics: Scarcity and location.Scarcity should not apply to currency! That is the error in your thinking. Currency which is scarce is useless and hence the gold standards where let go allowing governments to print as much money as the economy needs (=keep inflation rates at around 2%).
Scarcity should not apply to currency! That is the error in your thinking.If you believe that, go flood the economy with counterfeit currency and see if the government cares. After all, you're just making the currency "less scarce", right?
That remark makes no sense. You snipped the most relevant part: keeping the inflation at the 2% mark. Please educate yourself on how governments, central banks, IMF, etc are carefully regulating the amount of available currency. Then you'll also understand that crypto currencies which need to be mined (IOW: are scarce by design) have no future. It is like trying to get people to use a horse & carriage again.Scarcity should not apply to currency! That is the error in your thinking.If you believe that, go flood the economy with counterfeit currency and see if the government cares. After all, you're just making the currency "less scarce", right?
He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.
That remark makes no sense. You snipped the most relevant part: keeping the inflation at the 2% mark.The central banks accomplish that by manipulating the money (currency) supply. Which is to say, regulating its scarcity. My remark is perfectly on point.
Please educate yourself on how governments, central banks, IMF, etc are carefully regulating the amount of available currency. Then you'll also understand that crypto currencies which need to be mined have no future.Let's keep this discussion civil, shall we?
lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictionsI would expect semiconductor manufacturing to be affected little by that because the cleanroom suits are specifically designed to prevent contamination of the room by even the smallest particles and the fab building has sophisticated air filtering to quickly remove particles that somehow make their way into the room.
Well, people still need to share a dressing room, toilets, lunch room, etc. Depending on how the fab is layed out, it might not be possible to have all the staff in at the same time. But this information is likely hard to find.lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictionsI would expect semiconductor manufacturing to be affected little by that because the cleanroom suits are specifically designed to prevent contamination of the room by even the smallest particles and the fab building has sophisticated air filtering to quickly remove particles that somehow make their way into the room.
I would expect semiconductor manufacturing to be affected little by that because the cleanroom suits are specifically designed to prevent contamination of the room by even the smallest particles and the fab building has sophisticated air filtering to quickly remove particles that somehow make their way into the room.
https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc. (https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc.)Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.
The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.
Thanks! Makes perfect sense now. I already forgot how hard it was to buy a 'cheap' webcam when the lockdowns & working from home started. It is odd though that the buying frenzy continues; all people should have a computer by now OR companies are still moving towards more permanent home-offices and keep buying equipment to outfit their employees.https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc. (https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc.)Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.
The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.
Thats one ugly URL. PC sales up 32% in 2021, other 20% or so in 2020. This is just one market, but you se the same thing happening wiht more markets
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721 (https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721)
New consoles came out in 2020.
https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc. (https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc.)Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.
The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.
Thats one ugly URL. PC sales up 32% in 2021, other 20% or so in 2020. This is just one market, but you se the same thing happening wiht more markets
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721 (https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721)
New consoles came out in 2020.
Seems to me it would be pretty easy for governments to ban cryptocurrency.Bans can't work in free societies. Review the 18th Amendment in the USA for a perfect example. Prohibition (the ban of liquor) was backed by a Constitutional Amendment, the strongest expression of law in the United States system of government. Yet all it did was drive the liquor industry underground, create a huge black market, empower and enlarge criminal enterprise, and drive up street violence. It got so bad that another Constitutional Amendment, the 21st, was required to undo the damage.
Yep, before COVID-19 PC sales dropped steadily from year to year. With the virus there was a sudden demand for PCs plus peripherals to get home offices up and running. Add the crypto frenzy (gfx cards and now HDDs) and the stockpiling of components caused by sanctions against some Chinese companies, and we have a scarcity of components. It's only logical. ;)There's another aspect which was at least as large. I'm living this right now so I speak from personal experience (which I've mentioned elsewhere on this site).
Bans can't work in free societies. Review the 18th Amendment in the USA for a perfect example. Prohibition (the ban of liquor) was backed by a Constitutional Amendment, the strongest expression of law in the United States system of government. Yet all it did was drive the liquor industry underground, create a huge black market, empower and enlarge criminal enterprise, and drive up street violence. It got so bad that another Constitutional Amendment, the 21st, was required to undo the damage.
Similarly, the USA has had an outright ban on most recreational drugs for decades. How's that working out? Drugs seem readily available to those who seek them, and just like Prohibition this "ban" has created a huge international black market and empowered drug cartels and gangs resulting in endless violence and innocent casualities. I note that recently there's been some movement to acknowledge this and ease up on "lightweight" drugs such as marijuana. It's the 18th vs. 21st Amendment all over again.
I'm reminded of this cycle every single time someone wants to "ban" guns in the USA. Abortions bans are another one. Such people are utterly ignorant of history.
When considering the passage of a law, it's important to consider what enforcement would be required to make it work. Bans require enforcement that is not compatible with a free society. This is how otherwise fundamental liberties are swept away under the guise of "security" and "safety". There are a lot of people in USA prisons this very minute due to convenient interpretations of things like anti-drug laws (bans). Is that something people want to perpetuate, and indeed expand, with more "ban in name only" efforts against the boogieman d'jour?
Are periodic government inspections of your computing devices in the name of crypto enforcement really worth it? What sort of enforcement would be required for a gun ban? Or how about - wait for it - an abortion ban?
Freedom or bans: Choose one. But be darned careful of the secondary effects of your choice.
Criminal activities include but aren't limited to ordering leaded solder and basic organic reagents or mineral acids, working below whatever the government considers minimum wage this day, bypassing over 100% taxation on vodka and so on. An American might be surprised how widespread criminal activity is in "big government" states ;)
I see absolutely no value to cryptocurrency though and cannot think of anything legal that an individual can do with it that they couldn't do with existing currency. People are wasting vast resources on this stupid fad and it needs to stop.Great! Can I pick a loser that gets outlawed too?
I see absolutely no value to cryptocurrency though and cannot think of anything legal that an individual can do with it that they couldn't do with existing currency.What about make a profit operating equipment at home with minimal manual intervention? Ideally, it would incur either minimal operating costs or it would do something useful to justify it. Swagbucks is an example of the former, Curecoin/Foldingcoin is an example of the latter.
There is no need to ban crypto-curencies. One should however stop producing new bit coins or similar at high energy consumption - just stop the rewards or make sure a large part (e.g. 70% range) of the money paid for mined new bitcoins will be taxes. I see no real need for getting more bitcoins - there are plenty already and it seems to work to use small fractions.Or make energy costs progressive, in that for a given area, those who use a lot more energy than average get to pay a lot more for their usage. To be more fair, we could apply that only to peak times in order to encourage more use when there would be a surplus. The intended effect is that it will encourage improvements in energy efficiency in general, not just cryptocurrency.
You keep bringing up this shitcoin that you mine with your phone.I see absolutely no value to cryptocurrency though and cannot think of anything legal that an individual can do with it that they couldn't do with existing currency.What about make a profit operating equipment at home with minimal manual intervention? Ideally, it would incur either minimal operating costs or it would do something useful to justify it. Swagbucks is an example of the former, Curecoin/Foldingcoin is an example of the latter.There is no need to ban crypto-curencies. One should however stop producing new bit coins or similar at high energy consumption - just stop the rewards or make sure a large part (e.g. 70% range) of the money paid for mined new bitcoins will be taxes. I see no real need for getting more bitcoins - there are plenty already and it seems to work to use small fractions.Or make energy costs progressive, in that for a given area, those who use a lot more energy than average get to pay a lot more for their usage. To be more fair, we could apply that only to peak times in order to encourage more use when there would be a surplus. The intended effect is that it will encourage improvements in energy efficiency in general, not just cryptocurrency.
You keep bringing up this shitcoin that you mine with your phone.It might not be a very good cryptocurrency, but it makes a lot of profit for the energy used even though the difficulty is pretty high at this point. It uses about 22c of electricity per month to make about $10 per month, or about 45 times. That means it's over 6 times as efficient as mining Bitcoin and doesn't need hardware specifically designed for mining. And that it's profitable at a small scale means it's very easy to power from solar.
The entire concept is bad, and I really dont know why you keep pushing this.
I see absolutely no value to cryptocurrency though and cannot think of anything legal that an individual can do with it that they couldn't do with existing currency.Ordering a bag of 2N3904 online without a dozen companies which are not parties to the trade needing to know about it.
What secondary effects are you worried about if it was banned? The ability for people to make money gambling on the volatile values? The ability to buy illegal weapons and drugs? The ability to pay ransoms? People are wasting vast resources on this stupid fad and it needs to stop.The whack-a-mole war against something that will continue existing because it serves a useful purpose, including but not limited to trade of undocumented firearms or simply paying for undocumented labor if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. I would like to remind you that you are writing this post from a country which would collapse economically if the undocumented labor of the estimated 3% of its undocumented population disappeared overnight ;)
[...] if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. [...]
Vouchers? In which cave do you live? Never heard of a bank account and NFC payments? I rarely use cash. Not even to pay to use the toilet at a gas station.[...] if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. [...]
They can't/won't do that, because "cash substitutes" will pop up in their place... anything from vouchers to goods/services being bartered... governments would have even less control than they do with cash!
Nah, cripto hasn't been about illegal activities for a long time. I mean sure, in 2015 one of the main application was buying weed (which they sell two corners away in the shops here, legally, if anyone wants it), black market and that sort of things. 2017-2018 was about financial manipulations already, capital gains and a big bubble with not much behind it. 2021 is different, there are finiancial products behind it, lending, trading, digital arts, digital trustless notaries, and payment systems. I can order a Visa card that pays from a crypto wallet, and I can pay taxes after all this. Banks will soon look like the post offices today, after the email was invented.I see absolutely no value to cryptocurrency though and cannot think of anything legal that an individual can do with it that they couldn't do with existing currency.Ordering a bag of 2N3904 online without a dozen companies which are not parties to the trade needing to know about it.What secondary effects are you worried about if it was banned? The ability for people to make money gambling on the volatile values? The ability to buy illegal weapons and drugs? The ability to pay ransoms? People are wasting vast resources on this stupid fad and it needs to stop.The whack-a-mole war against something that will continue existing because it serves a useful purpose, including but not limited to trade of undocumented firearms or simply paying for undocumented labor if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. I would like to remind you that you are writing this post from a country which would collapse economically if the undocumented labor of the estimated 3% of its undocumented population disappeared overnight ;)
In Poland, between 10% and 20% of the GDP is estimated to be produced by undocumented economy. Those things are huge :scared:
Crypto is no different. It's a new thing, in many ways it hasn't found its niche and become integrated into daily life, but I see more evidence of that every day.
Already the IRS requires you to report your cryptocurrency holdings just like they do a foreign bank account.Tax authorities recognizing and trying to tax a thing is one indication (admission?) that they expect that thing is here to stay.
No. Just collecting taxes on valuable assets like shares. Which can also drop to a value of zero but that isn't the tax collector's concern.Already the IRS requires you to report your cryptocurrency holdings just like they do a foreign bank account.Tax authorities recognizing and trying to tax a thing is one indication (admission?) that they expect that thing is here to stay.
Tax authorities recognizing and trying to tax a thing is one indication (admission?) that they expect that thing is here to stay.
I personally think golf courses are "wasting vast resources on this stupid fad and it needs to stop". Acres of prime real estate, literal tons of artificial fertilizer, absolutely enormous amounts of fresh water, etc. "Absolutely no value", people can go for walks in forests or public sidewalks. Utterly unnecessary and we should stop the vast waste of all those resources.
I personally think golf courses are "wasting vast resources on this stupid fad and it needs to stop". Acres of prime real estate, literal tons of artificial fertilizer, absolutely enormous amounts of fresh water, etc. "Absolutely no value", people can go for walks in forests or public sidewalks. Utterly unnecessary and we should stop the vast waste of all those resources.
I strongly agree. Like I always say, "a golf course is a waste of a perfectly good motocross track." >:D
Vouchers? In which cave do you live? Never heard of a bank account and NFC payments? I rarely use cash. Not even to pay to use the toilet at a gas station.[...] if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. [...]
They can't/won't do that, because "cash substitutes" will pop up in their place... anything from vouchers to goods/services being bartered... governments would have even less control than they do with cash!
What do you use to pay a prostitute or a drug dealer?Vouchers? In which cave do you live? Never heard of a bank account and NFC payments? I rarely use cash. Not even to pay to use the toilet at a gas station.[...] if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. [...]
They can't/won't do that, because "cash substitutes" will pop up in their place... anything from vouchers to goods/services being bartered... governments would have even less control than they do with cash!
What do you use to pay a prostitute or a drug dealer?I'm so good, they pay me. :-+
What do you use to pay a prostitute or a drug dealer?Vouchers? In which cave do you live? Never heard of a bank account and NFC payments? I rarely use cash. Not even to pay to use the toilet at a gas station.[...] if governments continue their push to eliminate cash. [...]
They can't/won't do that, because "cash substitutes" will pop up in their place... anything from vouchers to goods/services being bartered... governments would have even less control than they do with cash!
They both likely have a NFC payment device because most people don't carry cash around here but I'm not going to check for you. Feel free to visit Amsterdam and try it yourself.
You can't say that about fossil fuels that are burned up to doing useless busy work. Those are gone, that resource that took millions of years to create is literally up in smoke, 100 or 1,000 years in the future it will still be gone, and people will look back and wonder what the hell anyone was thinking.In other words, stuff like auto racing is just a waste of energy if the rules only allow the use of outdated technology or otherwise prevents innovation. But if the rules instead encourage innovation, it wouldn't be as much of a waste anymore. Hence why I push for useful work altcoins like Curecoin and Foldingcoin - they use energy just like Bitcoin does, but the primary purpose of that energy use is solving real problems like cancer and even COVID-19.
What do you use to pay a prostitute or a drug dealer?EUR, I would imagine. They would give you a invoice (if you ask for it) and pay taxes.
What do you use to pay a prostitute or a drug dealer?EUR, I would imagine. They would give you a invoice (if you ask for it) and pay taxes.
In other words, stuff like auto racing is just a waste of energy if the rules only allow the use of outdated technology or otherwise prevents innovation. But if the rules instead encourage innovation, it wouldn't be as much of a waste anymore. Hence why I push for useful work altcoins like Curecoin and Foldingcoin - they use energy just like Bitcoin does, but the primary purpose of that energy use is solving real problems like cancer and even COVID-19.
today reels of many parts popped up at various distributors. maybe (maybe) we are starting to see some canceled orders?
I suspect though that any that don't require vast amounts of energy will never be worth anything because they will be easy to mine. If there is one that I can mine effectively on a Raspberry Pi then surely I can mine a lot more of it a lot faster on a quad processor Xeon. If I can mine one that solves real world problems, then maybe I can hack out the real world problem solving portion and just mine the currency even faster, that's the problem I see.Except that Xeon would use a lot more power and cost a lot more than a few super cheap smartphones. And it wouldn't perform particularly well on that kind of coin because the mining software is ARM native and emulation would incur a huge performance penalty. (Back when Perk was worth something, quite a few tried mining it in x86 VMs only to find out it would run very poorly if it worked at all.) The most recent smartphone mined coins are IP limited anyways, so having a really fast ARM CPU wouldn't help much. (Although I'm not sure if Apple M1 would be a good choice for mining even if coins like Perk were still profitable and were not limited by IP, simply because for the cost of a single Mac Mini, you could buy 70 really cheap smartphones instead.)
TI says their 35 weeks lead time on BQ chips is not a blanket statement, but is the expected time as per an email I received from Texas Instruments. To say TI is a disappointment is an understatement.
Ah, i'm talking about parts that were not "on order" or had delivery dates months from nowtoday reels of many parts popped up at various distributors. maybe (maybe) we are starting to see some canceled orders?
More likely they are just starting to catch up and get shipments in. Everybody already stocked up on the stuff they needed, parts are still being produced and inventory is coming in. All it takes is a lapse in demand and stock will start to accumulate again.
Except that Xeon would use a lot more power and cost a lot more than a few super cheap smartphones. And it wouldn't perform particularly well on that kind of coin because the mining software is ARM native and emulation would incur a huge performance penalty. (Back when Perk was worth something, quite a few tried mining it in x86 VMs only to find out it would run very poorly if it worked at all.) The most recent smartphone mined coins are IP limited anyways, so having a really fast ARM CPU wouldn't help much. (Although I'm not sure if Apple M1 would be a good choice for mining even if coins like Perk were still profitable and were not limited by IP, simply because for the cost of a single Mac Mini, you could buy 70 really cheap smartphones instead.)
I suspect though that any that don't require vast amounts of energy will never be worth anything because they will be easy to mine. If there is one that I can mine effectively on a Raspberry Pi then surely I can mine a lot more of it a lot faster on a quad processor Xeon. If I can mine one that solves real world problems, then maybe I can hack out the real world problem solving portion and just mine the currency even faster, that's the problem I see.There are currencies that are not mined. You have to lock it down, "stake" it then your receive a small amount every block, about 5-10% a year, depending on the currency. Energy usage is almost zero.
And still the fundamental problem with all of these remains, they are extremely volatile, making them useless as currency, people are making all the money in the speculative investment of the currency itself. A good currency has a value that is as stable as possible, because the whole point of a currency is to carry value to facilitate transactions. I can sell something for $10 today and buy something roughly similar for that same $10 next month. If the value of that currency was fluctuating wildly it would just be gambling, if I wanted to gamble I'd go to the casino.
So why limit it to a few cheap smart phones? Why not use hundreds of them, or thousands of them, or tens of thousands of them?In the early days of Perk mining, quite a few did indeed build some big clusters to mine with. Then the IP limits came and a few of them ended up signing up for second or even third ISP accounts, but most of them just sold the ones they couldn't use. And before you suggest using VPNs or VPS services to get more IPs, those are blacklisted.
I keep hearing about these "IP limits". Surely the majority of the "work" is hardware processing, not bandwidth? In other words, why can't racks and racks of mining machines live behind NAT and a very small number of fixed IP's? How can IP's be a limiting factor? (showing my ignorance here)Those coins limit how many mining instances are allowed on a single public IP. How that's enforced is one of the biggest disadvantages of such altcoins, thus far nobody has figured out how to do it in a truly decentralized manner.
Wanting to read about IC shortage anecdotes, not 3 full pages of cryptocurrency-discussion.I guess you are new to internet >:D
Might as well just start a discussion about cake recipes here, since my mixer might contain a BQ Li-Ion-chip and therefore its related to chip shortage.
Wanting to read about IC shortage anecdotes, not 3 full pages of cryptocurrency-discussion.
Might as well just start a discussion about cake recipes here, since my mixer might contain a BQ Li-Ion-chip and therefore its related to chip shortage.
Wanting to read about IC shortage anecdotes, not 3 full pages of cryptocurrency-discussion.
Might as well just start a discussion about cake recipes here, since my mixer might contain a BQ Li-Ion-chip and therefore its related to chip shortage.
... low-carb black forest cake, but all the stores were out of cherries. She couldn't think of any substitutes.
We needed a new handheld mixer for the kitchen ...
I bet we'll see a lot of parts get abandoned as part of this. They'll want to focus on more profitable parts and this gives them an excuse to orphan parts that might otherwise have been sustained as "support" for a few more years. Not being cynical, they just have limited fab resources and need to allocate fab time where it's most profitable.
The key is not just drop the cherries but getting something else to replace them and sell this as an improvement. I'd prefer raspberries or blackberries over cherries any day.
Does the use of Agile methods in hardware design with its two-week "Sprint" schedule hide long-term issues?Hardware is not software and using "agile methods" or other software engineering strategies on hardware is for complete morons.
Part A cannot be found, so the engineer does a lot of work to come up with a new discrete circuit to have the same functionality as Part A. Firmware is kept compatible, cost is not much higher. Redo PCB layout, BOM etc.Nowadays I make sure the parts get reserved / bought before finalising the PCB design.
Manager and Supply Chain come into office, "um uh we can't get Part B. Can you workaround that?"
"You told me you could get all necessary parts except A". "Um yes but not now".
I think hobbyists and very small startups aside, no one use "agile" or quick hardware design cycles. Now would be the time to do that despite all naysaying, especially from those making the argument about regulations. Do quick cycles using what is available, or die.You know it damn well that not everyone can. I have 2-4 months of certification for a product before I can legally place something on the market. And only that much because we target the European market with the product, I hear otherwise its a 12-18 months.
changing the BOM requires qualification steps that are a PITA.
I think hobbyists and very small startups aside, no one use "agile" or quick hardware design cycles. Now would be the time to do that despite all naysaying, especially from those making the argument about regulations. Do quick cycles using what is available, or die.You know it damn well that not everyone can. I have 2-4 months of certification for a product before I can legally place something on the market.
In exceptional circumstances, exceptional measures are sometimes needed, you can't stick to the old and safe habits. If you are starving to death, you will just kill an animal to feed yourself and your family even if that legally required a permission process to do so.
It takes a long time to get a Purchase Order issued, even $5,000-$10,000 worth of IC's that will get used, a no-brainer - it has to go through approvals and get signed off by the executive at head office. He must consult his astrologer or something. In the many days lost, the parts get scooped up by time the P.O. is good to go :palm:
I'm not going by people's word: "we're ordering those parts" translation: "we have yet to order them but probably think we should, it will take a week or so".
Mouser had parts i.e. ferrite chip beads, then no stock and 23 week lead-time, and I checked and magically they appeared in stock after 1 week. I can't even keep up with what parts are available.
But that doesn't have to stop you from stockpiling / ordering parts for a production run after the qualification process. Sure the qualification process can halt the production for a while but a 1-2 month delay is better than having nothing to sell for the next 12 months. You can start buying parts as soon as the level of certainty versus monetary risk is positive for a part. There is no need to wait for the entire qualification process to end.I think hobbyists and very small startups aside, no one use "agile" or quick hardware design cycles. Now would be the time to do that despite all naysaying, especially from those making the argument about regulations. Do quick cycles using what is available, or die.You know it damn well that not everyone can. I have 2-4 months of certification for a product before I can legally place something on the market. And only that much because we target the European market with the product, I hear otherwise its a 12-18 months.
Does the use of Agile methods in hardware design with its two-week "Sprint" schedule hide long-term issues?Hardware is not software and using "agile methods" or other software engineering strategies on hardware is for complete morons.
Software can be changed in seconds. As I've said, hardware is literally pouring the cement and changing it requires getting out the jackhammer.
Does the use of Agile methods in hardware design with its two-week "Sprint" schedule hide long-term issues?Hardware is not software and using "agile methods" or other software engineering strategies on hardware is for complete morons.
Software can be changed in seconds. As I've said, hardware is literally pouring the cement and changing it requires getting out the jackhammer.
The key points here are risk, mitigation, cost and scalability.
Certain facets of agile can be used, but the fundamental strategy of agile (and devops, CICD etc) is that in exchange for frequent small incremental changes there will be added risk as full regression testing is too expensive and takes too long. Risk is mitigated by also being able to reverse out changes quickly, although often the damage has already been done.
The problem of small incremental changes on hardware is that the cost of spinning a new board every week or two at production levels is hugely expensive, not just in setup costs, but also for when your production run fails, especially once shipped. Rework is hugely expensive as unlike software, it just doesn’t scale well.
Secondly, large players especially have absolutely no need nor desire to follow any regulations or laws if they so wish, the VW (and others!) emissions scandal being a typical and recent example. Companies routinely break the law, often severely, often causing actual damage to the others just for the sake of a tiny bit of competitive edge, some money saved, or a slightly better product. Now we are in an exceptional situation and it's actually about the survival of the companies and you can't even take a risk of interpreting the law with a risk of accidentally breaking it, give me a break.Yes, I have actually read the law, not just the standard. Its quite strict.
Does the use of Agile methods in hardware design with its two-week "Sprint" schedule hide long-term issues?Hardware is not software and using "agile methods" or other software engineering strategies on hardware is for complete morons.
Software can be changed in seconds. As I've said, hardware is literally pouring the cement and changing it requires getting out the jackhammer.
The key points here are risk, mitigation, cost and scalability.
Certain facets of agile can be used, but the fundamental strategy of agile (and devops, CICD etc) is that in exchange for frequent small incremental changes there will be added risk as full regression testing is too expensive and takes too long. Risk is mitigated by also being able to reverse out changes quickly, although often the damage has already been done.
The problem of small incremental changes on hardware is that the cost of spinning a new board every week or two at production levels is hugely expensive, not just in setup costs, but also for when your production run fails, especially once shipped. Rework is hugely expensive as unlike software, it just doesn’t scale well.
You're talking as if hardware can take "frequent, small incremental changes"- which I am saying is a myth.
Hardware has little agility, you're dealing with physical items, not software.
Risk is not mitigated by going in reverse, let's ask Boeing about that approach, the concrete has hardened and reverse is not a option. Hardware is not malleable and this is why I'm saying agile methods are of no use, particularly with chip shortages.
The cost of doing a board spin is low, it's the regulatory approvals that require months and $$$$$. Does not fit into "agile" at all.
Products with functional safety, it would be great if they had priority but the fabs went where the money is. Automotive semi's are low margin, high volume and the automakers thought they are King of the Hill and could throttle back orders without consequence, and that the fab industry's excess capacity would just sit their idling.
So I hear from our purchaser, that the missing parts are available. Someone in China bought them, entire reels, and they are selling it for 20 USD each, instead of the usual 0.6 USD price. We see similar issues on 4-5 parts. They of course cannot give invoice, no info on storage conditions, or anything else.If everybody could stick by the rules regarding sensitive equipment, all those components must be considered worthless for anything requiring controlled sourcing.
--snip--
One guitar pedal is short a half dozen 2N5457 JFETs, which everyone is out of, showing obsolete in many places now.
Wonder if Remington Rand will make a come back with all this. Pretty soon we'll have to go back to vacuum tube computers. :-DD
Robert Botch has a 38 week lead time on the BNO055.
Guess that's where tubes would come in. Wonder how small those can be made or if size matters a lot as to how they operate.Roughly during the Vietnam war era, there were CK57xx tubes used in some gear. They were roughly the diameter of a pencil and about an inch long. Search for "CK57 vacuum tube" and you will find some pics online.
Robert Botch has a 38 week lead time on the BNO055.
Not really, it's the "normal" lead time still quoted, but they can't deliver. If you order now, you won't likely get the parts in 38 weeks. Bosch Sensortec was in the situation of completely ignoring distributors and not answering questions for some 4 months, which resulted in Mouser to put a notification ALL IN CAPS that the factory is unresponsive, warning everybody about this dodgy company which shuts down communication completely in a crisis.
But finally a few weeks ago, BOSCH finally opened their mouth and came up with an estimate when they can satisfy orders in queue since January 2021 - and that will be in June 2022. So while possible, I seriously doubt their ability to provide 38 week lead time for new orders, because their current estimate of the actual lead time is 1.5 years.
As someone looking at it from the outside, the issue at Bosch surprises me.
Just two weeks ago there was big news that they opened a new Fab in Dresden. Specifically producing chips for automotive applications. :-//
So apparently, contrary to the news reports, the Fab is not running yet, or can they really have that big of a backlog?
Production in Dresden will start as early as July – six months earlier than planned. From that time on, semiconductors made in the new plant will be installed in Bosch power tools. For automotive customers, chip production will start in September, and thus three months earlier than planned.
As someone looking at it from the outside, the issue at Bosch surprises me.It takes like 10-14 weeks to send a wafer though all the production steps on a 14nm production line. IDK how that compares to MEMS because that might be more complicated in some ways, easier in others.
Just two weeks ago there was big news that they opened a new Fab in Dresden. Specifically producing chips for automotive applications. :-//
So apparently, contrary to the news reports, the Fab is not running yet, or can they really have that big of a backlog?
Other than that: We notice severe delivery time increases for virtually everything: PCs, Laptops, screens, network infrastructure, printers, you name it. Along with sometimes massive price updates.
June 2022... what gets me about these dummköpfes is they still advertise their Sensortec brand, fully knowing they cannot supply parts. They should have had reserve stock for the engineering community to continue the R & D design cycle, else when these chips finally become available, engineers will have abandoned them for alternatives. My guess is few companies will want to use Sensortec devices in mid 2022 and Bosch will have a difficult time trying to regain any trust and confidence in them.The Bosch Sensortech, the power tool company, the automotive company, the appliance company shares very little. They have different management, locations, goals. The only common denominator is the Bosch conglomerate.
I will investigate alternatives of the BNO055 from another vendor, even if it takes more than one chip. Unfortunately it means a heap of research and coding to do; as well as a PCB respin.
Incidentally, in 2019, Bosch was fined 90 million euros for their part in the VW diesel emissions fraud. Dodgy company.
Good customer-focused companies will be honest and keep stakeholders informed. Bad companies like Bosch leave customers not knowing what to do. Silence can be a form of dishonesty. I feel for great companies like Digikey and Mouser who are caught up with the likes of Bosch.
There should be an online rating system specifically for electronic components vendors, so that engineers can make an informed decision about whether to use a company based on vendor reputation. There are review sites around, but it is all fragmented and sparse. Such a website would sort out the wheat from the chaff.
Many MEMs chips are not available. And all IMU sensors. Robert Botch has a 38 week lead time on the BNO055.
Perhaps the final US production of small vacuum tubes were the “Nuvistors”, originated by RCA. I believe the final runs were done at Phillips ECG (originally Sylvania) since they were common in military gear. A 7586 triode, rated at 1 W plate dissipation and 110 V plate voltage, has an overall length of 0.80 in and a maximum diameter of 0.44 in. It requires roughly 900 mW to heat the cathode.Guess that's where tubes would come in. Wonder how small those can be made or if size matters a lot as to how they operate.Roughly during the Vietnam war era, there were CK57xx tubes used in some gear. They were roughly the diameter of a pencil and about an inch long. Search for "CK57 vacuum tube" and you will find some pics online.
The US NSA made some crypto gear that used many dozens of them. Check out the KWR-37 at :
http://www.jproc.ca/crypto/kwr37.html (http://www.jproc.ca/crypto/kwr37.html)
M
Jon
Many MEMs chips are not available. And all IMU sensors. Robert Botch has a 38 week lead time on the BNO055.Now there's an ironic typo....
Perhaps the final US production of small vacuum tubes were the “Nuvistors”, originated by RCA. I believe the final runs were done at Phillips ECG (originally Sylvania) since they were common in military gear. A 7586 triode, rated at 1 W plate dissipation and 110 V plate voltage, has an overall length of 0.80 in and a maximum diameter of 0.44 in. It requires roughly 900 mW to heat the cathode.Guess that's where tubes would come in. Wonder how small those can be made or if size matters a lot as to how they operate.Roughly during the Vietnam war era, there were CK57xx tubes used in some gear. They were roughly the diameter of a pencil and about an inch long. Search for "CK57 vacuum tube" and you will find some pics online.
The US NSA made some crypto gear that used many dozens of them. Check out the KWR-37 at :
http://www.jproc.ca/crypto/kwr37.html (http://www.jproc.ca/crypto/kwr37.html)
M
Jon
My response was "well, I can still buy 6L6s" (which RCA introduced before 1940).
I recall there were a handful of [production] TV sets still using tubes [other than the CRT] til the... late 70s at least, not sure if early 80s.CRT based computer monitors were being newly manufactured at least as late as 1996-1997. I remember getting my first "big screen" monitor back then, it was a CRT that consumed half of my workbench. The computer monitor market was always minute compared to retail TV's so I presume they weren't keeping the CRT factories running solely for monitors.
CRT based computer monitors were being newly manufactured at least as late as 1996-1997.
LCD monitors were around a bit earlier than that but they were pretty crappy, <double-expletive> expensive and really only popular for niche applications where the bulk of a CRT was difficult to accommodate.CRT based computer monitors were being newly manufactured at least as late as 1996-1997.
You have that timeline off by a decade. In late 1990's, no replacement was even near.
LCD displays started replacing CRTs in non-critical consumer market somewhere around 2003 while being expensive and quite crappy image quality wise, .....
LCD monitors were around a bit earlier than that but they were pretty crappy, <double-expletive> expensive and really only popular for niche applications where the bulk of a CRT was difficult to accommodate.CRT based computer monitors were being newly manufactured at least as late as 1996-1997.
You have that timeline off by a decade. In late 1990's, no replacement was even near.
LCD displays started replacing CRTs in non-critical consumer market somewhere around 2003 while being expensive and quite crappy image quality wise, .....
e.g. my oldest LCD is a Sceptre LC12W SVGA (800x600) monitor, which was manufactured circa 1997-1998 (to a 1996 design). It uses an IBM ITSV50D 6 bit/color RGB TFT LCD panel, 4:3 aspect ratio, 12" (visible) diagonal. Apart from the lowish color depth, it also doesn't do scaling, so all lower resolution video modes that it actually supports are letterboxed. Its good enough for noodling around CMOS setup screens and the like but you certainly wouldn't want to use it for CAD! It still gets dragged out and used occasionally if I've FUBARed remote access to a usually headless box.
It's been affecting me considerably. In my EE work (I actually have 2 jobs!), I design STM32-based hardware mostly. We are currently discussing availability with ST and for instance, one of our main designs uses the STM32F429. Can't get them ANYWHERE. ...
We have discussed switching to someone else, but I'm not sure anyone else is much better, and it would take considerable redesign (both hardware and firmware, as we are a bare metal design) so that realistically, by the time we are ready to ship redesigned products, things may have stabilized....
Interestingly, another part that we've had a LOT of trouble with is crystals.
If you buy no-name chinese xtals you can buy thousands for very little money. Qualify the part in the lab over temperature and just keep using it.
The alternative is AVX or Kyocera at 10x the cost, and the supply dries up because all the big users have it in their parts list and just keep buying it (and get amazing prices which you will never see).
Once a design is locked down, engineers won't be changing back in a hurry, if at all. Furthermore, there will be a "once bitten, twice shy" approach by engineers in choosing vendors for new designs.
"Make sure you buy 10x the volume you actually need, just in case, because it's likely you won't get the same part again."Or how about this one: a casing manufacturer stopped because the Chinese government confiscated the land the factory is on. They where not going to re-open business in a different location. :wtf:
Yes indeed, but often this doesn't matter. I still buy cables from China (custom parts) but I buy enough for ~ 2 years, so given that the vendor will be gone within that time frame, it doesn't matter much. That is the only way to deal with China - the place is like a scene from Mad Max these days, and everybody with >2 braincells is trying to make a fast $ and most don't care about long-term. I pulled out all product assembly from there ~ 2 years ago (lost stock and test gear too many times, and narrowly avoided a disaster when one assembly house went bust right as the batch was loaded onto the ship!).
Once a design is locked down, engineers won't be changing back in a hurry, if at all. Furthermore, there will be a "once bitten, twice shy" approach by engineers in choosing vendors for new designs.
Maxim leanred this the hard way. Best sample service, databooks, and parts in the business, but volume? That'll be 40 weeks lead time Sir.
Everyone knew to avoid Maxim parts because they were unobtainium in volume.
The lack of demand for passives confirms there is no underlying demand in terms of a greater end product volume. This is purely a purchasing bubble which will explode.
The lack of demand for passives confirms there is no underlying demand in terms of a greater end product volume. This is purely a purchasing bubble which will explode.
This is rational self-interest which leads to an irrational outcome. Classic game theory!
We have pre-purchased 500 pcs of FPGAs (spot value £50 ea.) Holding £25k of stock on site makes the boss nervous. Not to mention it's expensive to do so. But if we didn't buy up these parts then we wouldn't be able to get them when we need them - and a check of Octopart confirms my fear here, nobody has stock of this part and lead times are 50+ weeks. So if we didn't do this, then come later this year when we want to manufacture this device, there would be no parts.
The problem really is, the market has got itself into a panic, and just like toilet roll ran out at the first wave of the Covid pandemic, chips are running out because everyone is buying parts to cover themselves against a shortage that they are creating.
But as long as other people do this the most rational thing for an individual actor to do is to do the same thing -- the overall behaviour becoming irrational, of course. Chip makers are wary to add too much capacity, because they need to be careful not to over-supply the market. This will cost them more in inventory costs, and will inflate their assets which will concern shareholders.
The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 :palm:. I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.
Microchip has suggested alternative parts which are as useless as tits on a bull. Microchip used to pride itself on parts supply. No longer. Hello McFly.
The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 :palm:. I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.
The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 :palm:. I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.
1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.
Another option might be to build the processor onto a daughter board and ship the lower memory version now and then send free upgrades to the larger ones when available. If that's psosible software-wise of course.
The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 :palm:. I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.
1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.
The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 :palm:. I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.
1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.
Another option might be to build the processor onto a daughter board and ship the lower memory version now and then send free upgrades to the larger ones when available. If that's possible software-wise of course.
I think we either contact trusted brokers for the 350 or delay the project. Brokers might change an extra $10 per chip. That will be much, MUCH cheaper than putting on a daughter board. And I keep whatever sanity I have left intact.
I just got a quote on connectors which usually cost $2-3.Yep, even stuff like bog-standard JST PH connectors, fortunately there are knockoffs available.
100 pieces were quoted at $14 each.
That is not a typo.
It's not just semiconductors....
Yep, even stuff like bog-standard JST PH connectors, fortunately there are knockoffs available.
Hard to understand as the production pipeline can't be anywhere near as long a semiconductors.
Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source.We often do this for smaller parts, and we're doing a couple of board respins right now to generate "alternative" PCB's that are functionally identical but use different MCU's. The QFN's we typically use are running low, but (in one case) there are huge stocks of the TQFP packages. So we'll have multiple boards per product. We have the board shops make the PCB's fresh for each production run, so Purchasing will first secure whichever parts they can find and THEN place the order for the PCB that accommodates those packages.
There is something I find mystifying about the current shortage compared to any that I have previously lived through. In the past there was some sense as to why and what parts were affected. Particularly the periodic DRAM events that would happen. Now it is such a broad spectrum of parts across a vast span of geometry nodes I can not see the reason. Even with greater competition amongst fabless outfits for the most popular FAB nodes how do you explain low integration analog parts also going out of stock.The difference this time is, it's not just limited to the electronics industry. It's across all industries, from raw materials to the delivery of finished products.
Another example: The dramatic reduction in commercial airline travel in 2020. Most of the "big shippers" buy spare capacity on commercial airlines. This includes UPS, FedEx, and the postal services of most countries. When those flight schedules got pared way back, so did their shipping bandwidth. That ripple effect is still being cleaned out, and it explains why "2 day shipping" became much longer in many cases.
Then there's printing all that cash for "economic recovery" by multiple governments worldwide. That has to lead to inflation, by definition, and inflation has been artificially suppressed since the late 2000's. The pressure's been building for a decade, and now we top it off with a flood of new cash in the name of "stimulus". All the news reports about inflation are very real, and come on top of the price increases caused by the shortages mentioned earlier. Not sure how this is all going to resolve out but it's a toxic mix for sure.
If inflation is a non-issue, why do they prosecute counterfeiters?
Earnestly, or is that a standard quip, or leading into a bad faith argument..?It's a serious point.
[...] dramatic increases in the money supply are basically impossible to unwind so those effects will likely be very long lasting.
The real issue is that governments everywhere depend on inflation to pay their long term debts, so inflation is probably best viewed as a kind of hidden tax...Indeed. And when was the last time you saw a sovereign nation intentionally deflate their currency? Yeah, me neither.
The difference this time is, it's not just limited to the electronics industry. It's across all industries, from raw materials to the delivery of finished products.Yes. Other parts are becoming problematic. For example we have trouble buying the usual glass filled nylon.
I've seen reports that some semi manufacturing equipment companies are having issues
Shorter cycle: Imagine ASML not getting ICs to build the factories to build more ICs.
Totally impractical - legislating out of a problem never ends well. And the supply chain is worldwide.
So solution: Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law.
Top down economic planning doesn't have a great track record.Yeah, well, if this issue was in a 4X strategy game, even a 12 year old would be able to solve the problem.
A couple of weeks ago on this thread, someone said there was no shortage of passive components. I disagree.
I took a look at one of my designs that my purchasing guy is having trouble with, and ran it through a BOM tool at one of the major US based distributors. It's a large design with a lot of line items.
Integrated Circuits: 30% in stock
Resistors: 42% in stock
Capacitors and Magnetics: 44% in stock
Discrete Semiconductors: 60% in stock
In normal times, I'd expect at least 95% of these parts in each category to be in stock.
Top down economic planning doesn't have a great track record.
In reality, most Western economies are probably a form of mixed economy...That's definitely true. What I meant by my comment was having the government pick the winners and losers hasn't proven to be a successful strategy. "Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law." Who gets to define "industrial"? What about that startup that, if successful, would revolutionize chip fabbing and solve the problem... are they "industrial" enough? If you know the right people, can you get classified as "industrial" today?
It's not like this needs a new definition. When you register a company, you need to define what that company does, for a variety of legal reasons.In reality, most Western economies are probably a form of mixed economy...That's definitely true. What I meant by my comment was having the government pick the winners and losers hasn't proven to be a successful strategy. "Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law." Who gets to define "industrial"? What about that startup that, if successful, would revolutionize chip fabbing and solve the problem... are they "industrial" enough? If you know the right people, can you get classified as "industrial" today?
Top-down planning gives you a raging black market, the crime that always follows black markets, price controls, corruption, favoritism, etc. It's a terrible slippery slope. And it's extremely difficult to eliminate once established because Priority #1 for every bureaucracy is self-preservation and self-perpetuation.
Today's situation will pass.
It's a terrible slippery slope.No, your argument is terrible logical fallacy, please stop using it.
That varies a lot by country. In the UK for example it is entirely possible to be a small "industrial company" without registering anything at all.
It's not like this needs a new definition. When you register a company, you need to define what that company does, for a variety of legal reasons.
Ease up a bit.Yes. And tea is communist, and should be avoided at any cost. Freedom!
My slippery slope was in the context of trying to manage a national economy from the top. Once they meddle with one aspect and it doesn't "work", they argue that they have to meddle with another part, and another, and another. This is where things like rent control, wage control, and rationing originate; they're never proposed at first but they're the natural end result of such "good intentions". This is history, not theory.
Not trying to argue, just reviewing history so we hopefully don't repeat the bad aspects of it.
It's a terrible slippery slope.No, your argument is terrible logical fallacy, please stop using it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope)
Ease up a bit.Yes. And tea is communist, and should be avoided at any cost. Freedom!
My slippery slope was in the context of trying to manage a national economy from the top. Once they meddle with one aspect and it doesn't "work", they argue that they have to meddle with another part, and another, and another. This is where things like rent control, wage control, and rationing originate; they're never proposed at first but they're the natural end result of such "good intentions". This is history, not theory.
Not trying to argue, just reviewing history so we hopefully don't repeat the bad aspects of it.
Quite intentionally so. Talking with an ultraliberal is basically impossible, so using basic reasoning is pointless.Ease up a bit.Yes. And tea is communist, and should be avoided at any cost. Freedom!
My slippery slope was in the context of trying to manage a national economy from the top. Once they meddle with one aspect and it doesn't "work", they argue that they have to meddle with another part, and another, and another. This is where things like rent control, wage control, and rationing originate; they're never proposed at first but they're the natural end result of such "good intentions". This is history, not theory.
Not trying to argue, just reviewing history so we hopefully don't repeat the bad aspects of it.
I think you'll find that is a red herring ;-)
Quite intentionally so. Talking with an ultraliberal is basically impossible, so using basic reasoning is pointless.Ease up a bit.Yes. And tea is communist, and should be avoided at any cost. Freedom!
My slippery slope was in the context of trying to manage a national economy from the top. Once they meddle with one aspect and it doesn't "work", they argue that they have to meddle with another part, and another, and another. This is where things like rent control, wage control, and rationing originate; they're never proposed at first but they're the natural end result of such "good intentions". This is history, not theory.
Not trying to argue, just reviewing history so we hopefully don't repeat the bad aspects of it.
I think you'll find that is a red herring ;-)
I could argue, that there should be a law for something here in Europe, and he would say that it is "Not possible because that would melt the stars and stripes and second amendment". I had enough from these sort of discussions.
A couple of weeks ago on this thread, someone said there was no shortage of passive components. I disagree.Yup, I think the big distributors are trying to reduce inventory costs. Lots of items I used to buy from Digi-Key, they no longer seem to even TRY to keep in stock! I used to buy some Assmann IEEE-1284 cables as accessories for my products, and just buy a couple at a time. Now, they want me to buy 2000 minimum! That's a $30,000 order! They said that was the manufacturer' minimum. Well isn't that the JOB of a distributor? Buy a bunch and then sell them in smaller quantity? Well, sorry, Digi-Key, I found another vendor for the same item at half the price.
I took a look at one of my designs that my purchasing guy is having trouble with, and ran it through a BOM tool at one of the major US based distributors. It's a large design with a lot of line items.
Integrated Circuits: 30% in stock
Resistors: 42% in stock
Capacitors and Magnetics: 44% in stock
Discrete Semiconductors: 60% in stock
In normal times, I'd expect at least 95% of these parts in each category to be in stock.
Shorter cycle: Imagine ASML not getting ICs to build the factories to build more ICs.Very funny. It was a joke, wasn't it?
So solution: Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law.
Yup, I think the big distributors are trying to reduce inventory costs. Lots of items I used to buy from Digi-Key, they no longer seem to even TRY to keep in stock! I used to buy some Assmann IEEE-1284 cables as accessories for my products, and just buy a couple at a time. Now, they want me to buy 2000 minimum! That's a $30,000 order! They said that was the manufacturer' minimum. Well isn't that the JOB of a distributor? Buy a bunch and then sell them in smaller quantity? Well, sorry, Digi-Key, I found another vendor for the same item at half the price.Well, until recently distributors were the only way to purchase parts from a given manufacturer - nothing is written in stone regarding MOQs (minumum order quantities) and always depends on their willingness to break apart a reel. Most corporate disties won't even pick up the phone if you are not part of their customer list and these middle tier guys have to balance between a one-shot or staggered sale of parts.
I used to buy some Assmann IEEE-1284 cables as accessories for my products, and just buy a couple at a time. Now, they want me to buy 2000 minimum! That's a $30,000 order! They said that was the manufacturer' minimum. Well isn't that the JOB of a distributor? Buy a bunch and then sell them in smaller quantity?
Ease up a bit. My slippery slope was in the context of trying to manage a national economy from the top.
I just realized the part is an IEEE1284 - a printer parallel cable. Given this is past its prime time, that gives more weight to the distributor's position on this.I used to buy some Assmann IEEE-1284 cables as accessories for my products, and just buy a couple at a time. Now, they want me to buy 2000 minimum! That's a $30,000 order! They said that was the manufacturer' minimum. Well isn't that the JOB of a distributor? Buy a bunch and then sell them in smaller quantity?
Yes, that's the business model, but that doesn't obligate them to buy the MOQ and keep stock for a dwindling set of customers in perpetuity. If the business in that SKU was going well, they wouldn't discontinue it.
If it's true that they were being undercut significantly by a different vendor, that could play into their decision to stop stocking that Assmann part as well.
The difference this time is, it's not just limited to the electronics industry. It's across all industries, from raw materials to the delivery of finished products.Yes. Other parts are becoming problematic. For example we have trouble buying the usual glass filled nylon.
It could be that they have an issue buying one of the additive, or the colorant, and the company who makes those have trouble buying the vat for it.
Because the controller board for the vat has trouble getting the ICs to make it work. And we come full circle.
The only way out of it would be preferential allocation for industrial clients. Apple has no supply issue, because they have more layers than engineers. In the meantime, small, niche manufacturers (like where I work) has trouble getting parts, because we don't sue if they are not delivered. So it is cheaper to not deliver to us. The issue is, at the end of the day, we make the infrastructure for the companies to be able to extend their manufacturing or transportation needs.
So if you ship to machine builders, they build machines, and you slowly build up larger capacity to cover the need. If you dont, instead you use the capacity to build gadgets, then people thow out the old gadgets, and meanwhiel the manufacturing capacity slowly decreases.
Shorter cycle: Imagine ASML not getting ICs to build the factories to build more ICs.
So solution: Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law.
Most products that we are selling are made for order. Meaning that sometimes there is no orders for months, sometimes the entire production will do those assemblies. That's how it is in a B2B environment, and that's impossible to plan. Especially, how would you plan ahead for a year of production, because lead times are that long now.The difference this time is, it's not just limited to the electronics industry. It's across all industries, from raw materials to the delivery of finished products.Yes. Other parts are becoming problematic. For example we have trouble buying the usual glass filled nylon.
It could be that they have an issue buying one of the additive, or the colorant, and the company who makes those have trouble buying the vat for it.
Because the controller board for the vat has trouble getting the ICs to make it work. And we come full circle.
The only way out of it would be preferential allocation for industrial clients. Apple has no supply issue, because they have more layers than engineers. In the meantime, small, niche manufacturers (like where I work) has trouble getting parts, because we don't sue if they are not delivered. So it is cheaper to not deliver to us. The issue is, at the end of the day, we make the infrastructure for the companies to be able to extend their manufacturing or transportation needs.
So if you ship to machine builders, they build machines, and you slowly build up larger capacity to cover the need. If you dont, instead you use the capacity to build gadgets, then people thow out the old gadgets, and meanwhiel the manufacturing capacity slowly decreases.
Shorter cycle: Imagine ASML not getting ICs to build the factories to build more ICs.
So solution: Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law.
We're dealing with a supply chain issue. A big problem is the JIT inventory approach. If your inventory water marks are too low then when there's shortages of raw materials (chips, plastics, etc) you're likely going to be line-down when there's a global shortage due to something like a pandemic. The best solution would simply to be cognizant of issues like this and to increase inventory watermarks/safety stocks in the future.
I always had that battle when working at a startup. Yes, those Spartan6s aren't cheap, but if the specific package we use goes out of stock on DigiKey we can't make the product for a couple months. Just always have six months of material on-hand in the pipeline in whatever mix of final assemblies, sub-assemblies, and raw materials that make sense. If you're an industrial or medical company you really need to be sure to have the proper safety stock protocols in place with your CMs and suppliers to always have sufficient stock of materials in place.
Since this is a global issue and not a national one, the only thing you could likely legislate is that for national security critical applications (military, medical, infrastructure, etc) that they have to maintain a sufficient pipleline of safety stock.
[...] Now, they want me to buy 2000 minimum! That's a $30,000 order! They said that was the manufacturer' minimum. Well isn't that the JOB of a distributor? Buy a bunch and then sell them in smaller quantity? [...]
Imagine a distributor that got ahead of the curve, bought up a lot of supplies, and were able to supply parts now (even at a higher price... we would all be grateful just to be able to get them)...You have just perfectly described a "broker". They're making a killing right now. But it's a higher-than-normal-risk business model because if they guess WRONG they can easily get stuck with a lot of parts for which they overpaid once supplies become more readily available again.
You have just perfectly described a "broker". They're making a killing right now. But it's a higher-than-normal-risk business model because if they guess WRONG they can easily get stuck with a lot of parts for which they overpaid once supplies become more readily available again.Yeah, the brokers must be so busy right now, they will barely have time to look at luxury cars and houses. They are like bankruptcy lawyers in a bad economy - when most people are having a bad time, they are having the time of their lives.
Even power cords are hard to come by.
Regarding managing expectations, and a warning...
alegend - I had a very similar issue with Microchip Direct.
Placed an order for parts which were in stock. Delivery expected within 7 days.
A few days later I received an email notification which indicated a change in my order...the expected delivery date moved to October 2022!
I contacted MCHP, the person was surprised by this and had my order escalated to their planning/scheduling department.
Following this, I received several more updates, one indicated there was a 'glitch' in their system, another indicated my expected ship date has changed to February 2022.
Several more days passed...and then suddenly I received notification that my order had shipped.
Parts are now in hand...but the journey was stressful...
My current situation is that I have cancelled my commercial electronics projects for now and focusing on mechanical systems only. I have been designing and manufacturing mechanical only products for a long time.....now it is the majority.
As additional income - repairing commercial equipment that cannot be replaced because new units are not available. The gear that was not economical to repair is suddenly worth repairing regardless of what it costs. I really don't want to be a repair house, but it helps at the moment since I cannot build new products.
My current situation is that I have cancelled my commercial electronics projects for now and focusing on mechanical systems only. I have been designing and manufacturing mechanical only products for a long time.....now it is the majority.
My current situation is that I have cancelled my commercial electronics projects for now and focusing on mechanical systems only. I have been designing and manufacturing mechanical only products for a long time.....now it is the majority.At least you have that luxury... I'm jumping through hoops to get projects going using alternative solutions. Board deliveries delayed by 6+ months even though I ordered parts in advance once the news of potential shortages stared to emerge. I also found out that you can get legit parts and desoldered parts from Ebay :scared:
What's the point in building these penny parts, onsemi doesn't seem to have it together.
Dude, that sucks, really sorry to hear it. Can I have your scope? :P
At least you have that luxury... I'm jumping through hoops to get projects going using alternative solutions. Board deliveries delayed by 6+ months even though I ordered parts in advance once the news of potential shortages stared to emerge. I also found out that you can get legit parts and desoldered parts from Ebay :scared:
What's the point in building these penny parts, onsemi doesn't seem to have it together.Surely that's the point of using a part like the 2N7002 which has second sources? If OnSemi can't deliver, you have Nexperia, Diodes Inc, MCC, and others waiting in line to take your money.
They clearly allocated fab space for parts with more profit. In fact, because it is a jelly bean part, it is probably better if they produce more custom parts on their fab instead of this. For example those digital transistors, with the built in resistor, that one is probably made on the same fab, same package, and doesn't have a second source, and requires redesign. They should make those.What's the point in building these penny parts, onsemi doesn't seem to have it together.Surely that's the point of using a part like the 2N7002 which has second sources? If OnSemi can't deliver, you have Nexperia, Diodes Inc, MCC, and others waiting in line to take your money.
It's not really about finding the part. This is a 40 year old jellybean mosfet made by many companies.
It's the absurd lead-times, 2 years :o I wouldn't think OnSemi/Fairchild would be that long out, why even bother with the precious silicon/fab you have, to make small fish?
It's the absurd lead-times, 2 years :o I wouldn't think OnSemi/Fairchild would be that long out, why even bother with the precious silicon/fab you have, to make small fish?
It's the absurd lead-times, 2 years :o I wouldn't think OnSemi/Fairchild would be that long out, why even bother with the precious silicon/fab you have, to make small fish?
Isn't 2 years just a numerical way of expressing "we're not really even bothering with this right now"? I don't quite know what number you're expecting to see there if they "don't even bother" as you expect them to. Seems like they can either use a huge lead time, or declare the part permanently obsolete, which I imagine would be a shortsighted thing to do?
It's not really about finding the part. This is a 40 year old jellybean mosfet made by many companies. It's the absurd lead-times, 2 years :o I wouldn't think OnSemi/Fairchild would be that long out, why even bother with the precious silicon/fab you have, to make small fish?Not all fab lines are interchangable. The feature sizes can be wildly different, for example. I'm not sure Intel could make discrete FET's on their CPU lines even if they wanted to.
In Australia, I recently sent a small package to two suburbs away (about 10 km). It took Australia Post EIGHT days to deliver it, at a ripoff cost of $9.30 for shipping. I would have driven it there, but the state government could fine me $5K for violating our strict lockdown if I was caught. (Melbourne broke the world record for lock down.. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/melbourne-longest-lockdown/100510710 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/melbourne-longest-lockdown/100510710))Meanwhile I ordered toothpaste from a familiar online shop, because they didn't have my trusted one on the shelves in the local supermarket. And I got it next day express delivery from Germany, with only this in the package.
On Friday night, I order parts from Digikey in some village in Minnesota in the USA called Thief River Falls. The parts arrived this morning (Tuesday)... 3.5 days to go from other side of the planet to my workplace here in the suburbs of Melbourne. Shipping was free. For all their woes, Digikey and UPS provide an excellent shipping service. I have never been let down by them. But to Australia Post: "Hello, McFly..."
Even so, I am finding data on Digikey's website to be getting more and more inaccurate. Links to datasheets are missing or broken and sometimes parts are incorrectly labelled obsolete or no longer manufactured when they are not. It's not just Digikey. Manufacturers' websites with data are getting less trusted too with incorrect or out-of-date information. I don't know why this is happening other than the industry is a lot more damaged than what we might think. But for delivery speed and value, Digikey gets 10/10. Australia Post gets 1/10... one point because they didn't lose it.
In Australia, I recently sent a small package to two suburbs away (about 10 km). It took Australia Post EIGHT days to deliver it, at a ripoff cost of $9.30 for shipping. I would have driven it there, but the state government could fine me $5K for violating our strict lockdown if I was caught. (Melbourne broke the world record for lock down.. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/melbourne-longest-lockdown/100510710 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/melbourne-longest-lockdown/100510710))
On Friday night, I order parts from Digikey in some village in Minnesota in the USA called Thief River Falls. The parts arrived this morning (Tuesday)... 3.5 days to go from other side of the planet to my workplace here in the suburbs of Melbourne. Shipping was free. For all their woes, Digikey and UPS provide an excellent shipping service. I have never been let down by them. But to Australia Post: "Hello, McFly..."
Even so, I am finding data on Digikey's website to be getting more and more inaccurate. Links to datasheets are missing or broken and sometimes parts are incorrectly labelled obsolete or no longer manufactured when they are not. It's not just Digikey. Manufacturers' websites with data are getting less trusted too with incorrect or out-of-date information. I don't know why this is happening other than the industry is a lot more damaged than what we might think. But for delivery speed and value, Digikey gets 10/10. Australia Post gets 1/10... one point because they didn't lose it.
But problem is the scalpers (brokers) will scoop up those parts and resell for profit.
Finding substitutes, can you get your schedules pushed back? Engineering takes a 30% productivity hit sourcing alternate parts and yet that Gantt chart remains unchanged
What that says to me is, Melbourne is the place that ignored lockdown the most.
I think "obsolete or no longer manufactured" means _DIGI-KEY_ has chosen to no longer stock that part. I have been ordering an Assmann computer cable to go as an accessory with my boards for years. Digi-Key suddenly comes up with 2000 piece minimum order quantity! That's a $30,000 order! They say this is the manufacturer's MOQ. Well, Digi-Key is a "distributor", that't their JOB, order in large quantity and sell in smaller quantity. Well, I found a computer stuff dealer on line that had an acceptable cable for half the price, NO MOQ!
Even so, I am finding data on Digikey's website to be getting more and more inaccurate. Links to datasheets are missing or broken and sometimes parts are incorrectly labelled obsolete or no longer manufactured when they are not.
WRT finding things like 2N7002's... we're having to do a lot of spot-substitutions these days....
I'm pulling my hairs out... earlier this week I worked my ass off to get a board re-designed with components that are available
Yeah. I'll probably design the Gowin FPGA out again as well if this product takes off in quantities and use a more capable microcontroller when available. Turns out Gowin hands out licenses which expire after one year so getting a quick fix done a few years down the road can open a whole can of worms regarding dealing with licenses and (maybe) forced software updates. Pity because the Gowin software is nice to work with and the documentation is very good.I'm pulling my hairs out... earlier this week I worked my ass off to get a board re-designed with components that are available
That rats nest looks nasty. I have had to do that sort of work on the odd occasion. I would rather be in jail. The worst thing is you finally qualify the alternative, and then supply of the original part immediately resumes. Texas Instruments can't be relied on because there is no certainty as to when parts will be available.
I was speaking to someone from the IT department regarding an issue I was having with my laptop and I asked if he knew when we were going to get upgraded phones and laptops. He said he wasn't sure as there was an issue in getting laptops in the quantity necessary. I am guessing that they don't want them dribbling in and piecemeal configure and ship.OMG, this looks like whole new can of worms. Who decides who gets a new machine? I remember starting a new job and IT built a new machine for me. So now I had a device faster than what the old hands had. Bad start into a company fraught with politics. I didn't stay too long.
We just ordered some TI parts that were 15 USD instead of the normal 0.5. Also contacting TI to get the parts next time they make it: It will be in our webshop, buy it there.Interesting statement, which could help with future design decisions.
So they just sell it to those scalpels in china, and refuse to give us first time buy opportunity. Not just to us, but also to our distributors, like Avnet or Arrow. Basically they are complete dicks about it, because they know whatever they make the market will buy it.
No need to become paranoid. The order is simple: big clients first, first come first served and then the smaller clients. TI is mostly a miss at this moment but not all parts are gone. Nevertheless I have designed out several TI parts and I'm afraid they won't be returning in the product so in the end TI is going to take a hit from not being able to deliver parts -again-. When the credit crunch hit in 2009, TI was also the manufacturer that had the biggest problem getting parts produced after halting in anticipation of a post apocalyptic world without technology. You'd expect they know better by now and NOT halt production when some kind of crisis comes along. But no :palm:We just ordered some TI parts that were 15 USD instead of the normal 0.5. Also contacting TI to get the parts next time they make it: It will be in our webshop, buy it there.Interesting statement, which could help with future design decisions.
So they just sell it to those scalpels in china, and refuse to give us first time buy opportunity. Not just to us, but also to our distributors, like Avnet or Arrow. Basically they are complete dicks about it, because they know whatever they make the market will buy it.
Do you have proof that TI prefers to sells to Chinese scalpers, instead to western distributors? Why would that be so? What would be their advantage?
Add to Cart, go to checkout hours later or the next day and the parts are all scooped up. This has happened a few too many times to be coincidence.Same here. Just happened yesterday. It is everywhere, quite frankly.
I would say that big customers (most probably auto) are able to allocate parts well ahead in advance - that or prior commitments throughout 2020/2021 are still being fulfilled, leaving very little for Digikey/Mouser/Arrow (their remaining official distributors in the west) - or their own store, for that matter.No need to become paranoid. The order is simple: big clients first, first come first served and then the smaller clients.We just ordered some TI parts that were 15 USD instead of the normal 0.5. Also contacting TI to get the parts next time they make it: It will be in our webshop, buy it there.Interesting statement, which could help with future design decisions.
So they just sell it to those scalpels in china, and refuse to give us first time buy opportunity. Not just to us, but also to our distributors, like Avnet or Arrow. Basically they are complete dicks about it, because they know whatever they make the market will buy it.
Do you have proof that TI prefers to sells to Chinese scalpers, instead to western distributors? Why would that be so? What would be their advantage?
Add to Cart, go to checkout hours later or the next day and the parts are all scooped up. This has happened a few too many times to be coincidence.Same thing with domain names, been true for years. If you find a name you like, better buy it right then... because no matter how obscure it is, if you search for its availability even a day later it's remarkable how often it's "owned but available for bidding" at some jacked up price. FAR too often to be coincidence!
Maybe because there is 0 in stock anywhere, except from noname sources from China, that have reels of the stuff?We just ordered some TI parts that were 15 USD instead of the normal 0.5. Also contacting TI to get the parts next time they make it: It will be in our webshop, buy it there.Interesting statement, which could help with future design decisions.
So they just sell it to those scalpels in china, and refuse to give us first time buy opportunity. Not just to us, but also to our distributors, like Avnet or Arrow. Basically they are complete dicks about it, because they know whatever they make the market will buy it.
Do you have proof that TI prefers to sells to Chinese scalpers, instead to western distributors? Why would that be so? What would be their advantage?
Are you sure those unauthorized sources are legit? I would be highly surprised if you manage to buy new/original parts from those sources. IF (big if) the parts are legit, it is more likely to be old stock which is now sold for insane prices.Maybe because there is 0 in stock anywhere, except from noname sources from China, that have reels of the stuff?We just ordered some TI parts that were 15 USD instead of the normal 0.5. Also contacting TI to get the parts next time they make it: It will be in our webshop, buy it there.Interesting statement, which could help with future design decisions.
So they just sell it to those scalpels in china, and refuse to give us first time buy opportunity. Not just to us, but also to our distributors, like Avnet or Arrow. Basically they are complete dicks about it, because they know whatever they make the market will buy it.
Do you have proof that TI prefers to sells to Chinese scalpers, instead to western distributors? Why would that be so? What would be their advantage?
Also when we asked for it repeatedly, they just told us to "order online when it is in stock". They know exactly, when the manufacturing happens, it is scheduled and they even told us when and how many will go to the webshop.
Just search for DC-DC converters on TI.com, which they have a stock of at least 1000 pieces. 2/3 of the parts, they have 0 stock, and when you search for it on octopart, thousands of them are available from unauthorized sources.
Are you sure those unauthorized sources are legit? I would be highly surprised if you manage to buy new/original parts from those sources. IF (big if) the parts are legit, it is more likely to be old stock which is now sold for insane prices.
You'd expect they know better by now and NOT halt production when some kind of crisis comes along. But no :palm:
As George Burns to wisely said "Too bad that all the people who know how to run the country are busy driving taxicabs and cutting hair.".You'd expect they know better by now and NOT halt production when some kind of crisis comes along. But no :palm:
Texas Instruments did no such thing, except as and when required by local regulations.
This thread has developed into quite the conspiracy hivemind. :popcorn:
To confirm my suspicion the disti's analytics are screwing us over, try load up your cart with semi's and see what happens to those items. Just as an experiment :popcorn:
Maybe, maybe not but from my point of view TI seems to be hit the worst compared to other semiconductor manufacturers -again-. Or put differently; I had the biggest challenge getting TI parts or designing them out in the designs I'm trying to get produced. This goes from simple MOSFETs to more specialist parts. And it didn't got gradually worse over time but right from the start. For one particular project I have started to order chips very early this year (somewhere in January) and by then the parts I wanted where already gone so I had to use an alternative package.You'd expect they know better by now and NOT halt production when some kind of crisis comes along. But no :palm:Texas Instruments did no such thing, except as and when required by local regulations.
I'm not sure what the expectation is here. For a distributor, the only thing worse than front-running customer orders would be giving customers the ability to influence the market simply by putting 10,000 parts in their "shopping cart." ::)I don't know either what is the expected outcome. I think this was discussed somewhere around EEV as well - the cart is not a purchasing committment unless money is exchanged. Even still, it is not uncommon that line items are not fulfilled (or partially fulfilled) after the P.O. is placed - it just happened to me last Wednesday and it has happened to me in the past (pre-Covid). It simply means someone purchased the lot before me - broker or legit customer.
The parts don't get taken off the shelf until someone pays money for them. Only then are they removed from inventory. That's the only way it can possibly work.
Are you sure those unauthorized sources are legit? I would be highly surprised if you manage to buy new/original parts from those sources. IF (big if) the parts are legit, it is more likely to be old stock which is now sold for insane prices.The supply chain manager usually asks for pictures of the reels before ordering them from over there. Including the labels, they check out. The parts are fairly new, only in the market for few years anyway, after baking these parts should be OK.
[...]
TI is losing engineering customers, and it appears they could not care less as is evident by the spin and lack of transparency on their website. I wonder if TI's shareholders know about how they are treating engineers who are a source for future business.
To confirm my suspicion the disti's analytics are screwing us over, try load up your cart with semi's and see what happens to those items. Just as an experiment :popcorn:
All right, done. I've taken a screen shot of my current DigiKey cart, which consists of five ICs: two microcontrollers, a quad op-amp, a switching regulator, and a battery charger. I'll check back Monday after work, just in case these bots only work Monday to Friday.
[...]
TI is losing engineering customers, and it appears they could not care less as is evident by the spin and lack of transparency on their website. I wonder if TI's shareholders know about how they are treating engineers who are a source for future business.
As long as TI keeps the big customers happy, there has to be at least SOME engineers that still like them? :)
[...]
TI is losing engineering customers, and it appears they could not care less as is evident by the spin and lack of transparency on their website. I wonder if TI's shareholders know about how they are treating engineers who are a source for future business.
As long as TI keeps the big customers happy, there has to be at least SOME engineers that still like them? :)
Or Low Iq DC-DC converters that are impossible to replace, temperature measurement parts that nobody has equivalent, battery protection circuits, that are 30 cents from TI when available, or you can search for some randomly performing parts from China, Instrumentation amplifiers, that nobody else makes, and even when they do (AD) the part performance is worse, or comes in a stupid package, ADCs and DACs that are 1/3 the price of the equivalent Linear Technology part.[...]
TI is losing engineering customers, and it appears they could not care less as is evident by the spin and lack of transparency on their website. I wonder if TI's shareholders know about how they are treating engineers who are a source for future business.
As long as TI keeps the big customers happy, there has to be at least SOME engineers that still like them? :)
It's not that i want to use TI parts, it's just that TI has (some) LDOs that are difficult to replace, load switches that are very difficult to replace, opamps that are performing better than their equivalent from other manufacturers
Hey, be glad it isn't "gate array-gate" or some stupid scandal like that.Haven't you seen today's exclusive or-gate coverage? New claims are being added as I speak.
Tim
Very wild claims, one must admit... 8)Hey, be glad it isn't "gate array-gate" or some stupid scandal like that.Haven't you seen today's exclusive or-gate coverage? New claims are being added as I speak.
Tim
Very wild claims, one must admit... 8)Hey, be glad it isn't "gate array-gate" or some stupid scandal like that.Haven't you seen today's exclusive or-gate coverage? New claims are being added as I speak.
Tim
"Chip-a" what? Who makes up these daft names?What would you suggest?
"Chip-a" what? Who makes up these daft names?What would you suggest?
Because that's how language works... something-geddons, something-gates -- memes, all of it. You don't have to like it, and I'm not being apologetic here, just explaining, it happens. Sometimes language changes, sometimes it doesn't; but it's inevitable sooner or later.
Tim
To provide some balance to this subtopic: This is one of the things I've always appreciated about Microchip. They give great support even to small customers. One of their inside sales folks once told me (paraphrased) "We understand that today's small customers are tomorrow's large customers, and we want you to still like us then."
If there was only a shortage of ARM Cortex processors, it would without doubt be called Armageddon :-DDAwesome! Voted best pun of the week!
Because that's how language works... something-geddons, something-gates -- memes, all of it. You don't have to like it, and I'm not being apologetic here, just explaining, it happens. Sometimes language changes, sometimes it doesn't; but it's inevitable sooner or later.
Tim
Now you have done it!"Chip-a" what? Who makes up these daft names?What would you suggest?
How about “the chip shortage”. - Why does everything have to be “branded” with some melodramatic title?
Update: None of the parts sold out from under me.To confirm my suspicion the disti's analytics are screwing us over, try load up your cart with semi's and see what happens to those items. Just as an experiment :popcorn:All right, done. I've taken a screen shot of my current DigiKey cart, which consists of five ICs: two microcontrollers, a quad op-amp, a switching regulator, and a battery charger. I'll check back Monday after work, just in case these bots only work Monday to Friday.
5 IC's is not going to trigger anything. That's a flea fart. Lastest time, I had qty. 20 (all they had in stock) DSP about $1,000 in the cart, and gone in the hour.
Some people believe the same thing happens when they shop for airline tickets, i.e. the prices go up when "they" know you are searching for that particular journey... Could do with some scientific testing/debunking too!
Some people believe the same thing happens when they shop for airline tickets, i.e. the prices go up when "they" know you are searching for that particular journey... Could do with some scientific testing/debunking too!
But there IS dynamic pricing in air fares ! Maybe not in the simplistic way the conspiracy prone think. Airlines try to maximize load factor times ticket price right up to departure. A consumer visible method is with stand-by tickets but it goes way beyond that. In Canada there are 2 majors serving domestic travel; Air Canada and West Jet with West Jet being the Southwest Airlines model type of operation. Some years back there was a court case against a West Jet Manager who had obtained login credentials for the Air Canada reservations system and was skimming their system to optimize West Jet per ticket pricing dynamically on various competing routes.
Some people believe the same thing happens when they shop for airline tickets, i.e. the prices go up when "they" know you are searching for that particular journey... Could do with some scientific testing/debunking too!
But there IS dynamic pricing in air fares ! Maybe not in the simplistic way the conspiracy prone think. Airlines try to maximize load factor times ticket price right up to departure. A consumer visible method is with stand-by tickets but it goes way beyond that. In Canada there are 2 majors serving domestic travel; Air Canada and West Jet with West Jet being the Southwest Airlines model type of operation. Some years back there was a court case against a West Jet Manager who had obtained login credentials for the Air Canada reservations system and was skimming their system to optimize West Jet per ticket pricing dynamically on various competing routes.
Hey, be glad it isn't "gate array-gate" or some stupid scandal like that.
Tim
Hey, be glad it isn't "gate array-gate" or some stupid scandal like that.
Tim
To be fair, I don't think our non-US friends here would understand what is meant by the "-gate" suffix. Nor do I think any Americans under, oh, age 40 would, either.
"I'm gonna set it straight, this Watergate ..."
Hey, be glad it isn't "gate array-gate" or some stupid scandal like that.
Tim
To be fair, I don't think our non-US friends here would understand what is meant by the "-gate" suffix. Nor do I think any Americans under, oh, age 40 would, either.
"I'm gonna set it straight, this Watergate ..."
First I spent an evening improving the FW then I decided to check the stock of the MCU, ATMEGA328P. Ugh, I should have been a carpenter.Just shrink your code down a bit - plenty of ATMega168's out there!
First I spent an evening improving the FW then I decided to check the stock of the MCU, ATMEGA328P. Ugh, I should have been a carpenter.Just shrink your code down a bit - plenty of ATMega168's out there!
I really should have been a carpenter.
To be fair, I don't think our non-US friends here would understand what is meant by the "-gate" suffix. Nor do I think any Americans under, oh, age 40 would, either.
"I'm gonna set it straight, this Watergate ..."
I really should have been a carpenter.
Wouldn't help much. Construction wood became rather expensive over here, sometimes hard to get, because a lot is exported for a higher profit. The same for other construction material. In need of a new central heating system? No chips, no control unit, no furnace. People living the region which was flooded this year have huge problems getting a new central heating, despite being the top priority on manufacturer's delivery lists.
[...]
As long as house prices keep inflating more than construction costs, it'll be fine.
[...]
As long as house prices keep inflating more than construction costs, it'll be fine.
Except that if wages don't keep up, there will be a squeeze on !housing products...
[...]
As long as house prices keep inflating more than construction costs, it'll be fine.
Except that if wages don't keep up, there will be a squeeze on !housing products...
Do wages ever keep up with inflation?
It's not since the dawn of time, just the 60s. Wages and purchasing power has been in a decline since then. At least in the USA, I don't know how EU28 would compare to that. Probably still huge differences between countries.[...]
As long as house prices keep inflating more than construction costs, it'll be fine.
Except that if wages don't keep up, there will be a squeeze on !housing products...
Do wages ever keep up with inflation?
They must beat inflation in the long run, or our standard of living would be going backwards since the dawn of time...
It's not since the dawn of time, just the 60s. Wages and purchasing power has been in a decline since then. At least in the USA, I don't know how EU28 would compare to that. Probably still huge differences between countries.[...]
As long as house prices keep inflating more than construction costs, it'll be fine.
Except that if wages don't keep up, there will be a squeeze on !housing products...
Do wages ever keep up with inflation?
They must beat inflation in the long run, or our standard of living would be going backwards since the dawn of time...
[...]
3D printing of homes could cause some deflation. I don't think the space race will.
[...]
3D printing of homes could cause some deflation. I don't think the space race will.
A lot of a home's price is the price of the land it sits on... 3D print that! :D
Mark Twain famously said "Buy land. They're not making it any more.". I assume he never visited Hong Kong, or The Netherlands, or East Anglia in the UK.[...]
3D printing of homes could cause some deflation. I don't think the space race will.
A lot of a home's price is the price of the land it sits on... 3D print that! :D
[...]
3D printing of homes could cause some deflation. I don't think the space race will.
A lot of a home's price is the price of the land it sits on... 3D print that! :D
And that price is based on where that piece of land is located!
(Also we can "3D print" the walls, but the rest of the details that make a house cannot be manufactured like that. You know: plumbing, cabinets, doors, wiring, flooring, windows, all the little things.)
Windows? First off, good luck finding some in stock. Second off, they'll probably be banned soon because they aren't great insulators, they increase HVAC/energy use. [/sarcasm]Whilst banning windows is unlikely, many places have had window taxes in the past, limiting people's enthusiasm for them. Maybe they'll make a come back. Even without specific window taxes, it costs more to install a window than to build a similar area of wall. In the UK a huge number of newly built houses have far less window area than most people would like.
By the way, the infamous Window Tax was back in 1696, during the reign of William III, as an indirect tax on wealthy subjects who lived in big houses.Although that tax went away a long time ago, its effects are still felt. This village has a very large modern house, built in the style of a 19th century house. It was built with what look like bricked up windows, I assume for a period effect.
Of course, it led to unhealthy living conditions as the taxpayers took to bricking up their windows.
Worse, since it was levied on landlords, they proceeded to brick up windows on tenements of unwealthy renters in urban areas.
Cooler heads eventually prevailed, and the tax was repealed--in 1851.
see https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/towncountry/towns/tyne-and-wear-case-study/about-the-group/housing/window-tax/ (https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/towncountry/towns/tyne-and-wear-case-study/about-the-group/housing/window-tax/)
Yet another example of government intrusiveness having negative consequences. In today's environment of ever-increasing nationalized health care, the health effects caused by insufficient fresh air and sunlight (mentioned multiple times in that earlier link) would impose even more burden upon taxpayers. Such legislative nonsense would be laughable if it didn't have such negative impacts on actual people. And politicians haven't stopped, despite countless documented examples going back centuries.
It could be argued that the ultimate blame falls on we, the voters, who unfathomably continue to (re)elect such politicians. Voters truly do get the government - and the consequences - they deserve. {/rant}
It's a common argument in democracies. But reality makes it fall apart. People vote for being represented, and then new laws are voted without the people's consent. If that makes them angry enough, they'll vote for the opposite camp next time. And the same will happen.The problem is recidivism (politely rephrased as "reelection" in politics).
I think there's a stronger point you missed: if "the other side" gets voted in, they just do the same damn thing.100% agree. The political parties are far more alike than different. They don't market themselves that way, but from the 10K foot view it's true. They want to control your choices and your money.
Note that term limits set an arbitrary ceiling without justification; it's just some random number. The most likely effect is that, those that can do good, won't be around long enough to accomplish much, while making everyone as a whole that much more susceptible to lobbying -- a constant stream of newbies, diluting cultural knowledge.There's truth in what you say, but I see term limits slightly differently. A term-limited elected official would know he/she would end up back home, living with their families and neighbors under the laws they helped pass or retain. There would of course be a semi-permanent unelected layer of circulating staff members and lobbyists in DC, and they could try to influence the short-term politicians, but ultimately those politicians are the ones casting the votes. And they act as an output filter... they take input from their staff and lobbyists and constituents, but the final vote is theirs. And while the staff and lobbyists will dump and forget a term-limited-out elected official, their own families and neighbors won't. And they know it. THOSE are ultimately the people to whom they will answer.
It could be argued that the ultimate blame falls on we, the voters, who unfathomably continue to (re)elect such politicians. Voters truly do get the government - and the consequences - they deserve. {/rant}In most elections its the least despised candidate who wins. You are only offered the choice of self serving scumbag 1 or self serving scumbag 2. This is why I like electoral systems with a "None of the above" box. Its a weak form of expressing your feelings, but its way ahead of voting for scumbag A because scumbag B seems even worse.
Why is the thread descending into politics, we can't do anything to get democracy to evolve or improve. There is no corrective feedback loop, aside from complaint and that doesn't change much.
And it's (democracy) is under attack, possibly what's really driving these semi shortages.
Anyone notice 555 supply is running low, Mega328's out of stock 500,000 on order and 69 weeks for 2023 forecast. These are jellybeans...
This is why I like electoral systems with a "None of the above" box. Its a weak form of expressing your feelings, but its way ahead of voting for scumbag A because scumbag B seems even worse.NOTA is a great system if it includes the feature that if NOTA "wins" an election, the offered candidates are prohibited from appearing on the subsequent ballot. That forces fresh choices, and political parties would stop backing NOTA-losing candidates as a complete waste of money which might(?) lead to more voter-appealing candidates from the major parties.
Anyone notice 555 supply is running low, Mega328's out of stock 500,000 on order and 69 weeks for 2023 forecast. These are jellybeans...We're all frustrated about the shortages.
TI has zero trust and confidence as a supplier. They are a company full of promises and hot air, but deliver nothing.Just to relate something positive: I've ordered a couple of reels of IC's direct from TI's website in the last few months and they've delivered accurately and swiftly. Granted, they don't have a lot of the parts we need, but when they say they have them in stock they appear to be truthful and the reels show up fast.
TI has zero trust and confidence as a supplier. They are a company full of promises and hot air, but deliver nothing.Just to relate something positive: I've ordered a couple of reels of IC's direct from TI's website in the last few months and they've delivered accurately and swiftly. Granted, they don't have a lot of the parts we need, but when they say they have them in stock they appear to be truthful and the reels show up fast.
Yes, in the USA. And it was in the 18:00 hour (6pm) when I sent that. Not sure what the site's clock is set to but it's not my local time!
It's been a real pain finding IMUs over the last year. For my latest build they are specially hard to find. None of the distributors I'm familiar with have any of the 3 models I want or even post lead times. Meanwhile, win source electronics says they have over 700,000 of them!
Why does no one have IMUs but win source is holding ~$3M worth of them? Almost 10x more stock than all the other stock listed on octopart combined.
Not familiar with win source but found some interesting info in the product page:
"fake threat in the open market: 88 pct."
"supply and demand status: balance"
... Rochester Electronics seems to be prominent... any good?For delivery to Germany, free shipping doesn't apply to Rochester Electronics. In addition to another ~US$40 for shipment expect "handling fees" from the carrier plus duty. I can't tell you more at this point, since I am still waiting for the additional charges. (in short - different INCOTERMS)
... Rochester Electronics seems to be prominent... any good?For delivery to Germany, free shipping doesn't apply to Rochester Electronics. In addition to another ~US$40 for shipment expect "handling fees" from the carrier plus duty. I can't tell you more at this point, since I am still waiting for the additional charges. (in short - different INCOTERMS)
Since Digikey was playing their (German?) customers last week, by adjusting the quoted price about 10% upwards upon placing the goods into the shopping cart, plus stocks being of a general volatile nature, I got cautious myself. Whenever my cart exceeded minimum free shipping, which was no problem, because I shopped for several kiloDollars, I hit "checkout". So we got more than half a dozen parcels from Digikey over the course of three days. One was the Rochester parcel, which has an additional duty sticker attached.
The "flexible pricing" lasted for about a day. I could flog myself because I haven't done a screenshot. However - I had advertised price still on screen and higher price in the shopping cart. This behabvior was shown for several ST and TI parts. My colleague in procurement told me that the situation had been cleared the next day. Prices were constant, albeit even higher than the 10% surcharge that I had seen the day before.
This is what's known as "Transitory Inflation"... and if you believe that, the Brooklyn Bridge is only a click away from your cart! :DAnother awesome quote from an EEVblog member. Seriously, the humor content here is as good as the technical content! :-DD
Another shipping fiasco. I made an order from mcmaster-carr the other day. They emailed me to say:
Due to the cost and complexity of shipping our products to Canada, we are only able to accept orders from businesses and schools. We’ve canceled your order. If this material is not for personal use, please resubmit your order online using the business or school name.
This order was for business |O I've made at least 10 orders from them on the same account for the same business.
3DHubs went this direction a while ago too. Used to be able to make low cost orders, now any order less than $100 gets rounded up to $100.
I suspect the likes of WinSource will end up being bag holders sooner or later - you can't buy millions of $ of stock and sit on it forever. When inventories at companies fill up, Digi-Key and the likes will start bringing parts back into stock and at market prices, not 10x. No one will want to buy from WS, etc., at 10x the price and they'll lose money even selling at cost because storage ain't free.
Has anyone ordered parts from Digikey's Marketplace vendors? I haven't, but there seems to be many of them and the prices are generally low. However I suspect the delivery might be slower than normal and the buyer incurs extra shipping costs because they are shipped from the vendor, not Digikey. Rochester Electronics seems to be prominent... any good?I just ordered some switches from one of their third party vendors. That box arrived on the same day as DigiKey's own, two days later. No issues.
I think they are state funded, and they don't care if it is a loss for them, as long as it is a bigger loss for us.I suspect the likes of WinSource will end up being bag holders sooner or later - you can't buy millions of $ of stock and sit on it forever. When inventories at companies fill up, Digi-Key and the likes will start bringing parts back into stock and at market prices, not 10x. No one will want to buy from WS, etc., at 10x the price and they'll lose money even selling at cost because storage ain't free.
Here's to hoping all the hoarders get burned bad enough to deter hoarding next time.
I suspect the likes of WinSource will end up being bag holders sooner or later - you can't buy millions of $ of stock and sit on it forever. When inventories at companies fill up, Digi-Key and the likes will start bringing parts back into stock and at market prices, not 10x. No one will want to buy from WS, etc., at 10x the price and they'll lose money even selling at cost because storage ain't free.
...I keep reading "transistory inflation". L2 problem, I guess.
This is what's known as "Transitory Inflation"... and if you believe that, the Brooklyn Bridge is only a click away from your cart! :D
Chipageddon's been brutal to us.
Learned a new term; "Decomitted".
As in we have decomitted your order for 60k motor controllers
that was supposed to be delivered next month.
Has anyone ordered parts from Digikey's Marketplace vendors? I haven't, but there seems to be many of them and the prices are generally low. However I suspect the delivery might be slower than normal and the buyer incurs extra shipping costs because they are shipped from the vendor, not Digikey. Rochester Electronics seems to be prominent... any good?
I noticed Digikey has increased their prices of pretty much everything. The humble 0402 garden variety resistor that was 10 cents for one is now 15 cents, and volume prices have increased a lot. That has to be price gouging.It might be. But I will say that even we have had to adjust our prices recently, increased by as much as 20%. What's happened is that our internal costs have been steadily increasing over the past several years and we just kept "absorbing" them to avoid complaints from our customers. This supply chain nonsense, and the increased prices that came with it, finally forced a full internal cost review which frankly shocked everyone. Nobody really understood just how bad the "boiling frog" problem had gotten. In some cases our prices weren't even covering our costs, which meant we were losing money on each item shipped.
Same here, looking at imposing a 20% price increase myself: it's no longer possible to shoulder the costs without becoming unviable as a business.Not to mention the extra time spent hunting around for parts, and redesigning around what's available
This is not only the increased parts costs, but also the effects on cash flow, as I have to stock up on parts ahead of time and factor in loss of income due to unplanned delays beyond my control.
Not to mention the extra time spent hunting around for parts, and redesigning around what's availableYep, I'm estimating our Engineering staff is losing ~30% of their working hours to helping Production identify and qualify potential substitutes for out of stock components. That's time we AREN'T spending on R&D. But it has to be done because Purchasing and Production don't have the technical background to qualify if "this" SOT-23-3 PFET can be substituted for "that" SOT-23-3 PFET on the product in "next week's" production run.
Same here, looking at imposing a 20% price increase myself: it's no longer possible to shoulder the costs without becoming unviable as a business.Not to mention the extra time spent hunting around for parts, and redesigning around what's available
This is not only the increased parts costs, but also the effects on cash flow, as I have to stock up on parts ahead of time and factor in loss of income due to unplanned delays beyond my control.
I started playing around with the idea of nesting a QFN28 footprint inside of the same part's QFN44 footprint. It actually works - the result is sort of like a starburst pattern - and the result would be the ability to use either package depending upon what was available. It just required the creation of a custom footprint which was not difficult. That particular board is on hold at the moment but the concept is still valid and I'm hoping to finish it soon.
Same here, looking at imposing a 20% price increase myself: it's no longer possible to shoulder the costs without becoming unviable as a business.This is what I hear from upper management. It's not enough that these vendors have ripoff pricing, they also don't have company credit. So they want upfront payment for the parts, instead of paying later. So then we have trouble paying our regular suppliers, and incurr late payments for them.
This is not only the increased parts costs, but also the effects on cash flow, as I have to stock up on parts ahead of time and factor in loss of income due to unplanned delays beyond my control.
Western govs are dragging their heals on this situation: there is no light at the end of the tunnel in the short, medium or long terms. IMHO we need incentives for corps to make substantial long term local investment on plant now that China has unilaterally taken control of the global supply chain.
Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source.
I've been thinking about moving some parts onto breakout boards.
Same here, looking at imposing a 20% price increase myself: it's no longer possible to shoulder the costs without becoming unviable as a business.Nobody is expecting you to keep the prices constant. The only goal of your company is to keep up with companies you compete against. Had they been dealing with chipageddon in a better way, increasing their prices only 10%, you would be out of business in a matter of several months. But maybe your competitors are like unaware carmakers - use the chipageddon to your advantage: decimate requirements, simplify design, use three Padauks or two 8051 instead of unobtanium32.
Inflation is real...
Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source.I've been thinking about moving some parts onto breakout boards.
Looks like the most expensive path: a third way, an afterthought. First you design a product in chipageddon unawareness, hitting 52 weeks lead time, and then with pants down you start dealing with the new situation.
The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.
The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.
I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:
* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia
However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.
The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.
I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:
* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia
However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.
They should have information on their websites about when specific existing parts are expected to be in plentiful supply for the little guy at reasonable prices, rather than just leaving us all guessing.
However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.
However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.
Sounds a perfect opportunity to go back to the roots and make designs using glue logic :box:
This kind of environment may offer opportunities to engineers / companies that can make things work with what's available?See "Apollo 13".
Bigger problem is, it takes 2-3 years at least to get these operational. Then they start qualification of existing products, which is more time wasted.The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.
I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:
* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia
However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.
They are not getting this message: Their senior management have failed to communicate to their customers :wtf: is going on.
They should have information on their websites about when specific existing parts are expected to be in plentiful supply for the little guy at reasonable prices, rather than just leaving us all guessing.
I work at a startup and warn the bosses constantly about chipageddon. (..)That reminds me the discussion we had here about doing not your job (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/projects/exploding-ic-in-buck-converter/msg2996114/#msg2996114).
I work at a startup and warn the bosses constantly about chipageddon. (..)That reminds me the discussion we had here about doing not your job (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/projects/exploding-ic-in-buck-converter/msg2996114/#msg2996114).
Warning your boss is a job of a CEO and not your job.
Focus on electronics, burn the energy gaining skills and experience in your field instead.
However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.
Sounds a perfect opportunity to go back to the roots and make designs using glue logic :box:
I was just going to say... it's as if civilization has taken a step backwards, and we have to drop back to lower tech!
This kind of environment may offer opportunities to engineers / companies that can make things work with what's available?
4000 Bosch IMUs appeared on Digi-Key today, but they disappeared about 5 minutes later. Crazy.
Which model of Bosch IMU's?
I think one of the reasons it's so hard for manufacturers and distributors to give estimates is they have no idea how much hoarding and over bidding is going to happen.I'll give the distributors a pass for that reason, but not manufacturers. They 100% control what they manufacture. If you check their websites they often reveal some of their manufacturing schedules. When they say something isn't going to be available for 52 weeks, unless they can't get leadframes or something, that's entirely their decision about how to allocate time on their fab lines. I don't begrudge them the ability to make those decisions - it's their investment in equipment - but they are also responsible for the shortages those decisions create.
You have to realise a lot of the shortages there are down to manufacturers supplying their preferred customers: big auto, big computer manufacturers, and so on, first, because they have huge contracts with them.
The likes of Digi-Key sell mostly to the small fry, so we are on the lower end of priorities unfortunately.
You can see there is not really that much of a shortage when e.g. GM can still make millions of cars. They make less than they want to, but still millions of cars, so they can get chips just fine now.
Which model of Bosch IMU's?
BNO055.
We caught it with 182 left, but couldn't buy in time.
They're $4 parts normally, but WinSource etc. have them at $60 each...
You have to realise a lot of the shortages there are down to manufacturers supplying their preferred customers: big auto, big computer manufacturers, and so on, first, because they have huge contracts with them.
The likes of Digi-Key sell mostly to the small fry, so we are on the lower end of priorities unfortunately.
You can see there is not really that much of a shortage when e.g. GM can still make millions of cars. They make less than they want to, but still millions of cars, so they can get chips just fine now.
But, e.g. GM is selling LESS cars than before... new car production in North America is down about 3.4 million vehicles in the first three months of this year, and the car makers blame chip shortages... seen in that light, does it really make sense for the chip manufacturers to blame the car makers? They can't both be right! :D
According to Rev 1.2 datasheet, pin 10 has to be grounded, but in more recent datasheets, it is a Do Not Connect for something called a boot load indicator output. So what happens if an earlier design has this grounded as instructed, but Botch now says Do Not Connect? So you buy in new chips for an old PCB revision. What do you do? How do you know if you have the latest chips or not? Was pin 10 grounded because it was an input to the onboard MCU, but it is now an output changed in firmware? Is a re-spin of the board required to remove the ground? That's for Botch to know and you to find out! There are a few other pin-out changes too. The functions column in the pin-out table looks like a high school kid created it. In fact the entire datasheet is arse-about. TI, AD and LT's datasheets are far superior. Obviously SensorTec has serious internal problems with component supply, it's management and it's technical writers.
Botch changed the hardware functionality of the BNO055 (a pinout change) without changing the part number of the chip! Hello, McFly.Not sure if "Botch" was an intentional misspelling, but it sure fits.
Botch changed the hardware functionality of the BNO055 (a pinout change) without changing the part number of the chip! Hello, McFly.Not sure if "Botch" was an intentional misspelling, but it sure fits.
I've written here before about how they completely screwed up another IMU chip of theirs....
...Yeah, I'm still angry about it. Can you tell? >:(
I’m adding LCSC to my growing list of specualtive scalping outfits to avoid.
Botch changed the hardware functionality of the BNO055 (a pinout change) without changing the part number of the chip! Hello, McFly.Not sure if "Botch" was an intentional misspelling, but it sure fits.
I've written here before about how they completely screwed up another IMU chip of theirs....
...Yeah, I'm still angry about it. Can you tell? >:(
Yes it was intentional. It appears Colonel Klink is running Botch Sensortec and Sergeant Schultz is their technical writer.
Oddly enough Bosch do make relatively good quality dishwashers and clothes washing machines. Would I buy their white goods in future? Maybe. Would I buy their Sensortec chips again? Nope.
I’m adding LCSC to my growing list of specualtive scalping outfits to avoid.
Mouser, at least put an upper limit on some of their lines, in order to stop one PO buying up all of the stock.
Analog Devices is specifying 2-year leadtimes on new orders. And orders that were made 6 months ago, and promised delivery around now, were also pushed out, probably because they're selling them to their large customers instead. Insanity. We're strongly considering abandoning them for this nonsense.
Magically there always seems to be tens of thousands of stock on Winsource and similar sites though. Provided of course, you are able to budget for six times the normal price!.
Is Winsource reliable? We have a few parts where we kill to pay scalper's rates.
I'd like to listen to those who benefit from whole shortage situation.
The traders, scammers, whatever you people call them?
The speculators of silicon, where are you?
How is Chipageddon affecting you, I ask?
I attached the progress to this post. Note the change in tone from "Lieber Kunde" in German to an impersonal cancellation in American.
I've heard similar stories about another distributor that puts smaller lots on their website. But they appearantly cancel repeat orders that go to the same shipping address. It may hint towards some distributors wanting to spread parts amongst their customers and not sell everything in 1 big lot.I attached the progress to this post. Note the change in tone from "Lieber Kunde" in German to an impersonal cancellation in American.
Mouser has been acting oddly with regard to domestic orders as well, implementing 'soft' allocation policies that they aren't disclosing. I needed 400 of a particular part for a production run recently. Mouser had more in stock than any other domestic distributor, but only 110 pieces. So it looked like I'd need to order 110 from them and get the rest from brokers. Strangely, however, they still showed 110 after I ordered. I waited 24 hours and ordered 110 more, then did the same thing two more times over the next couple of days. All four packages arrived as ordered... but at this point they really do seem to be out of stock.
Is Winsource reliable? We have a few parts where we kill to pay scalper's rates.
I've had good success with Winsource, and from what I've been able to find out, they are legit overall.
... No shortages of Espressif....
Chipageddon continues to worsen but there's no industry insiders saying a peep, so who knows the real situation?
As for Analog Devices, I was on an AD webinar and the host said they will support design engineers with small quantities even though the lead time might be a year - but you need to contact them directly. If they do this, that is terrific.That might work for new designs that are 12+ months away from production. For those who are scrambling to redesign something to replace impossible-to-find parts, that is no solution. I'm not throwing rocks at AD - I love them - but their solution doesn't work for everyone.
Not only that, but how many design-ins did TI lose because of the shortage? I have removed quite a few TI chips from my designs in order to have the designs produced in a reasonable time frame. I'm not going to design the TI chips back in at any point if the product works.... No shortages of Espressif....I suspect the reason companies are quiet is they want to protect their share price. I have read TI's stock exchange announcements and annual reports. Nowhere do they say "In the medium to long term, sales may be impacted because engineers are designing using alternative parts because we don't bother supporting the small guy with parts in the early design phase." It is also somewhat frustrating when companies advertise their new and wonderful parts with emails and yet they are clearly NIL STOCK everywhere.
Chipageddon continues to worsen but there's no industry insiders saying a peep, so who knows the real situation?
"they didn't test well
if someone would telling me 2 years ago that in near future the only way how to get some atmega32u4 micros in small quantities would be to salvage them from Lilypad clone boards... i would not believe him :-DD
if someone would telling me 2 years ago that in near future the only way how to get some atmega32u4 micros in small quantities would be to salvage them from Lilypad clone boards... i would not believe him :-DD
What is wrong with Digikey, too expensive :-// ?
https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow (https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow)
No worries... as soon as "they" have created the inflation they feel they need, Chipageddon will magically disappear and everything will be available again... at a new, improved, higher price level, blamed on the shortages! >:D
They've been "quantatively easing" since 2008, injecting huge amounts of new dollars into the economy without apparent inflation. That's because until COVID it mostly went into inflating asset prices. What changed in the COVID era is they injected some of the new dollars into the average person's bank account, at a time when saving was not the average person's highest priority, and the production of goods and services was weak.No worries... as soon as "they" have created the inflation they feel they need, Chipageddon will magically disappear and everything will be available again... at a new, improved, higher price level, blamed on the shortages! >:D
Well... I'm not sure who the "they" refers to... =)
(Not saying you're wrong, just that I'm not sure who that all is.)
One thing though - with the gigantic amounts of "created" cash that has been injected into the economy during the Covid-19 crisis (and it's probably not over), basic maths and economy would tell us that significant inflation is inevitable - and indeed, it's already there, and far from just with semiconductors.
if someone would telling me 2 years ago that in near future the only way how to get some atmega32u4 micros in small quantities would be to salvage them from Lilypad clone boards... i would not believe him :-DD
What is wrong with Digikey, too expensive :-// ?
https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow (https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow)
most probably the fact that they have only the RC version ? ... RC has a internal calibrated RC oscillator, no option for external XTAL.
It's only possible to artificially suppress natural forces for so long. We have a LOT of pent-up inflation due to all the fiat money that's been dumped into the world economy since ~2008 and we're starting to see the first signs of natural forces reasserting themselves. Central banks have few arrows left in their quivers to do anything about it since they've been holding interest rates near zero for years to keep the cork in the bottle. But now, COVID-19's supply chain problems have absolutely ripped the cork out of the bottle. Not sure there are any options left except to ride it out.They've been "quantatively easing" since 2008, injecting huge amounts of new dollars into the economy without apparent inflation. That's because until COVID it mostly went into inflating asset prices. What changed in the COVID era is they injected some of the new dollars into the average person's bank account, at a time when saving was not the average person's highest priority, and the production of goods and services was weak.No worries... as soon as "they" have created the inflation they feel they need, Chipageddon will magically disappear and everything will be available again... at a new, improved, higher price level, blamed on the shortages! >:D
Well... I'm not sure who the "they" refers to... =)
(Not saying you're wrong, just that I'm not sure who that all is.)
One thing though - with the gigantic amounts of "created" cash that has been injected into the economy during the Covid-19 crisis (and it's probably not over), basic maths and economy would tell us that significant inflation is inevitable - and indeed, it's already there, and far from just with semiconductors.
That is not how I read the datasheet; it looks like you can set the oscillator through software and thus switch from internal RC to external crystal and the Xtal version has a USB bootloader. All in all not a big problem compared to getting no chips at all.if someone would telling me 2 years ago that in near future the only way how to get some atmega32u4 micros in small quantities would be to salvage them from Lilypad clone boards... i would not believe him :-DD
What is wrong with Digikey, too expensive :-// ?
https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow (https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow)
most probably the fact that they have only the RC version ? ... RC has a internal calibrated RC oscillator, no option for external XTAL.
That is not how I read the datasheet; it looks like you can set the oscillator through software and thus switch from internal RC to external crystal and the Xtal version has a USB bootloader. All in all not a big problem compared to getting no chips at all.if someone would telling me 2 years ago that in near future the only way how to get some atmega32u4 micros in small quantities would be to salvage them from Lilypad clone boards... i would not believe him :-DD
What is wrong with Digikey, too expensive :-// ?
https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow (https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow)
Yeah, some misconception and a bit of an increased price saved these "elite" parts to be gobbles, but they will found soon enough when the supply of boards to desolder from will dry :-\, it may be too late tough.
most probably the fact that they have only the RC version ? ... RC has a internal calibrated RC oscillator, no option for external XTAL.
That is not how I read the datasheet; it looks like you can set the oscillator through software and thus switch from internal RC to external crystal and the Xtal version has a USB bootloader. All in all not a big problem compared to getting no chips at all.if someone would telling me 2 years ago that in near future the only way how to get some atmega32u4 micros in small quantities would be to salvage them from Lilypad clone boards... i would not believe him :-DD
What is wrong with Digikey, too expensive :-// ?
https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow (https://www.digikey.de/de/products/detail/microchip-technology/ATMEGA32U4RC-MUR/2774249?utm_campaign=buynow)
most probably the fact that they have only the RC version ? ... RC has a internal calibrated RC oscillator, no option for external XTAL.
... No shortages of Espressif....I suspect the reason companies are quiet is they want to protect their share price. I have read TI's stock exchange announcements and annual reports. Nowhere do they say "In the medium to long term, sales may be impacted because engineers are designing using alternative parts because we don't bother supporting the small guy with parts in the early design phase." It is also somewhat frustrating when companies advertise their new and wonderful parts with emails and yet they are clearly NIL STOCK everywhere.
Chipageddon continues to worsen but there's no industry insiders saying a peep, so who knows the real situation?
Not only that, but how many design-ins did TI lose because of the shortage? I have removed quite a few TI chips from my designs in order to have the designs produced in a reasonable time frame. I'm not going to design the TI chips back in at any point if the product works.
...
I have a major client where TI DC-DC switching converter chips have been replaced with an alternative design from another manufacturer. I was a big fan of the TI bq battery charger chips, but now have used alternative brands for those and the fuel gauge chips.
...
when i need 5 of themyou don't have a chip shortage issue.. you have a distributer problem.
TI can come grovelling all they want but no-one is going to revert back to TI chip once a change is made.the beancounters may have something to say about that.
Not only that, but how many design-ins did TI lose because of the shortage? I have removed quite a few TI chips from my designs in order to have the designs produced in a reasonable time frame. I'm not going to design the TI chips back in at any point if the product works.
It's only possible to artificially suppress natural forces for so long. We have a LOT of pent-up inflation due to all the fiat money that's been dumped into the world economy since ~2008 and we're starting to see the first signs of natural forces reasserting themselves. Central banks have few arrows left in their quivers to do anything about it since they've been holding interest rates near zero for years to keep the cork in the bottle. But now, COVID-19's supply chain problems have absolutely ripped the cork out of the bottle. Not sure there are any options left except to ride it out.They've been "quantatively easing" since 2008, injecting huge amounts of new dollars into the economy without apparent inflation. That's because until COVID it mostly went into inflating asset prices. What changed in the COVID era is they injected some of the new dollars into the average person's bank account, at a time when saving was not the average person's highest priority, and the production of goods and services was weak.No worries... as soon as "they" have created the inflation they feel they need, Chipageddon will magically disappear and everything will be available again... at a new, improved, higher price level, blamed on the shortages! >:D
Well... I'm not sure who the "they" refers to... =)
(Not saying you're wrong, just that I'm not sure who that all is.)
One thing though - with the gigantic amounts of "created" cash that has been injected into the economy during the Covid-19 crisis (and it's probably not over), basic maths and economy would tell us that significant inflation is inevitable - and indeed, it's already there, and far from just with semiconductors.
...
I have a major client where TI DC-DC switching converter chips have been replaced with an alternative design from another manufacturer. I was a big fan of the TI bq battery charger chips, but now have used alternative brands for those and the fuel gauge chips.
...
Are you allowed to share those brand names? We're looking into replace BQ40Z50. This is due to a huge increase of price (400% and then unoptanium), as well as TI's crappy attitude towards medium scale production support (firmware update algorithm is proprietary, which means you either have to use EV2400 with cumbersome and slow TI Battery Studio or have them pre-programmed by TI. Great show, especially if the only source for those chips is some Asian scalper).
In the above mentioned design, the one that suffered from the betrayal by Mouser, we also had to replace several TI components by other brands. Among them the buck-converter, a component most interesting when it comes to EMC.
I also had to downgrade the MCU to something smaller, but available. As a result I will quickly rewrite the RTOS-based firmware to something less resource hungry. Boy, am I looking forward to applying all that 1990's firmware know-how again.
At this time I fully expect schematic/layout changes for every single production run.
As a end user of eg. Siemens and Rockwell industrial electronics the supply is dry from certain products, no promises or dates, fortunately I do not work in logistics department trying to source parts.
I do wonder when the factories start to fall, because lack of spare parts.
JOT always works and stock is a waste! After reading the JIT- and then JOT-chapters someone forgot to turn the page to see a new following chapter: 'Redundancy of systems - ROS' :-DD
It's only possible to artificially suppress natural forces for so long. We have a LOT of pent-up inflation due to all the fiat money that's been dumped into the world economy since ~2008 and we're starting to see the first signs of natural forces reasserting themselves. Central banks have few arrows left in their quivers to do anything about it since they've been holding interest rates near zero for years to keep the cork in the bottle. But now, COVID-19's supply chain problems have absolutely ripped the cork out of the bottle. Not sure there are any options left except to ride it out.They've been "quantatively easing" since 2008, injecting huge amounts of new dollars into the economy without apparent inflation. That's because until COVID it mostly went into inflating asset prices. What changed in the COVID era is they injected some of the new dollars into the average person's bank account, at a time when saving was not the average person's highest priority, and the production of goods and services was weak.No worries... as soon as "they" have created the inflation they feel they need, Chipageddon will magically disappear and everything will be available again... at a new, improved, higher price level, blamed on the shortages! >:D
Well... I'm not sure who the "they" refers to... =)
(Not saying you're wrong, just that I'm not sure who that all is.)
One thing though - with the gigantic amounts of "created" cash that has been injected into the economy during the Covid-19 crisis (and it's probably not over), basic maths and economy would tell us that significant inflation is inevitable - and indeed, it's already there, and far from just with semiconductors.
Yup. Thinking we can avoid inflation doing that is just stupid. It's magical thinking. Just as we can artificially inject money, we can artificially make it look like it doesn't create inflation using even more artificial means. But that can only postpone it for a few years.
The upcoming issues were already known *before* the Covid-19 crisis, so I don't even think this is the cause. It just has precipitated the process while making it look like it's all due to an external event, and of course, not to anything we could have possibly done. It was already inevitable before that. IMHO.
If you are angry with TI, try Bosch Sensortec. Parts discontinued without prior notice, history of active parts ever existing wiped off from the website overnight. Recommended replacements being again discontinued within months. Whole active product lines being wiped out without notice. "Replacements" are not compatible at all, not even perform the same function (no, you can't replace magnetometer with an accelerometer). And, no communication - total silence - even to distributors, driving distributors into special "they don't talk to us at all" blacklisting practices never seen before.100% agree on Bosch Sensortec, as I've mentioned before. Literally the worst semi manufacturer behavior I've ever seen in 40+ years of this industry.
If you are angry with TI, try Bosch Sensortec.
Parts discontinued without prior notice, history of active parts ever existing wiped off from the website overnight. Recommended replacements being again discontinued within months. Whole active product lines being wiped out without notice. "Replacements" are not compatible at all, not even perform the same function (no, you can't replace magnetometer with an accelerometer).
And, no communication - total silence - even to distributors, driving distributors into special "they don't talk to us at all" blacklisting practices never seen before.
Analog Devices is specifying 2-year leadtimes on new orders. And orders that were made 6 months ago, and promised delivery around now, were also pushed out, probably because they're selling them to their large customers instead. Insanity. We're strongly considering abandoning them for this nonsense.
If manufacturers are being overly optimistic with their lead times maybe we should be overly optimistic with our EAU (estimated annual use).
Normally manufacturers back off after I answer their question about EAU. One time, my boss wanted prices for extra large quantities for projections. The manufacturer was very friendly, offering FAEs to help with design and test dev kits for us. That lasted until they had a conversation with my boss and now I think we're back on their DNA (do not answer) list or worse.
At the same time, as things are falling apart in developed countries, in developing countries, things may be becoming more reliable, pay may be rising towards Western standards, workers finally being appreciated more by long resistant employers. They may even be developing a middle class?Have you ever been to a country which does not have a comfortable middle class?
Does anybody have any thoughts on that?
Looks like we need to go back to vacuum tubes - stuff that can be manufactured by less sophisticated cultures that are suffering from regression from their peak! :DSounds about right. Another plus - vacuum tubes are at least as "eco friendly" as nuclear power. And we could save even more energy by heating them with natural gas. >:D
There's always hydraulic logic. You can make most of your own components in a modestly equipped garage.
Shocked myself today when several jellybean parts were also hard to source:Cause they gave up their relationships with their suppliers. You practically cannot get any TI part from Avnet/Arrow/Future/others.
LM339 - Digi-Key nearly sold out (showed 921,000 in stock which disappeared 48hrs later) - managed to grab some STMicro equivalents (they only had 300 off)
LM358 - A few lines still in stock but many short
LM2594M-ADJ - Couldn't get it anywhere, had to change for 3.3V variant with change to feedback circuit (And I thought I was being smart choosing a generic part made by many vendors, nope!)
xx1117-33 - All the Texas parts were sold out on Digi-Key when I checked
It seems TI is having the worst time here of all the vendors. I don't know why they'd be so affected.
Remember when "fluidics" was the promising new technology?
Remember when "fluidics" was the promising new technology?
Remember when "fluidics" was the promising new technology?That's why I mentioned hydraulic logic! It was actually a "real thing" before this newfangled electronics stuff stole its thunder....
Vacuum-tube cathodes run at temperatures between 1000 K and 2500 K, depending on cathode material. Methane in air or oxygen burns at a temperature of 2230 K or 3080 K, respectively.
With appropriate (yet expensive) construction techniques, a gas-heated cathode could work. However, with the industry having shifted to silicon, I don't think that electrical heater materials are in short supply.
Hi all, trying to weather the chipageddon by getting to know the non-digikey, non-mouser distributors.
Is there some kind of list of known non-authorized distributors and resellers.
I was recently quoted £12 each for AT90CAN128-16AU which is about three times what we paid from the same source about 12 months ago. However, it could be worse - Winsource has them listed for over $100
I suspect a lot of the quanties on Octopart for the grey market distributors are fictitious.I've also noticed that the available quantities are often an identical, oddball value across multiple sources. That can't be an accident. I wonder if they are quoting each other's stock and if they get an order they do some behind-the-scenes horse trading.
Yes they do, this was confirmed by our supply chain manager.I suspect a lot of the quanties on Octopart for the grey market distributors are fictitious.I've also noticed that the available quantities are often an identical, oddball value across multiple sources. That can't be an accident. I wonder if they are quoting each other's stock and if they get an order they do some behind-the-scenes horse trading.
This is similar to an old Yellow Pages trick. A single vendor (say, a plumbing company) would take out multiple ads under different names and phone numbers. All the numbers went to the same place, but they answered with a company name based on which incoming number rang. This way, when someone called to get competing quotes, they could coordinate the quotes to keep them higher and also increase their chances of landing the sale. Legal, clever, but a bit dodgy.
... blame Chiapageddon on the Canadian truckers
This kind of treatment makes me wonder if TPTB want to blame Chiapageddon on the Canadian truckers, Does it make sense to blame it on them, as supply chain problems had already existed for two years now?
I suspect a lot of the quanties on Octopart for the grey market distributors are fictitious.
They put a large number there to get an enquiry and make a sale a little bit more likely, or do a bait-and-switch ("we don't have part <X> in qty required but we have <Clone_Part>")
I suspect a lot of the quanties on Octopart for the grey market distributors are fictitious.
They put a large number there to get an enquiry and make a sale a little bit more likely, or do a bait-and-switch ("we don't have part <X> in qty required but we have <Clone_Part>")
They are totally fake, and exist only to bring people to their website to request a quote.
Not all listings on Octopart are fake. It is just the non-official distributors that smell fishy.I suspect a lot of the quanties on Octopart for the grey market distributors are fictitious.
They put a large number there to get an enquiry and make a sale a little bit more likely, or do a bait-and-switch ("we don't have part <X> in qty required but we have <Clone_Part>")
They are totally fake, and exist only to bring people to their website to request a quote.
They haven't always been fake... before the current times of crisis, it was a pretty good site.
Canadian Truckers to blame for Chip problems to automakers?
I just saw this article in Washington Post (owned by Amazon's jeff Bezos) This kind of treatment makes me wonder if TPTB want to blame Chiapageddon on the Canadian truckers, Does it make sense to blame it on them, as supply chain problems had already existed for two years now?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/08/truck-trade-vaccine-canada/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/08/truck-trade-vaccine-canada/)
I think that (if indeed traffic is blocked) blocking traffic is not a positive activity for protesters, and given the economic situation for many, worsens it..
Is this the product you are looking for?
The product is out of stock.
"Russia could hit U.S. chip industry, White House warns" (https://www.reuters.com/technology/white-house-tells-chip-industry-brace-russian-supply-disruptions-2022-02-11)
"... regarding Russian/Ukrainian production of a number of semiconductor materials... referencing a summary by Techcet on C4F6 {Hexafluorobutadiene} Palladium, Helium, Neon and Scandium...
"According to Techcet estimates, over 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon supplies come from Ukraine, while 35% of U.S. palladium is sourced from Russia."
It's amazing how complex the semiconductor supply chain is. I hope this doesn't get ugly but with the White House issuing fresh warnings, they're assuming it is.
Nothing to do with shortages, fake chips have been a thing for many years.
All those opamps, DS18B20, FT232 and other popular "hobbyist" chips you get from auction sites are fake. What cannot be faked is recycled.
I wonder what those odd reasons could be :D
And Roger Waters's answer on the "The Wall" tour:"Russia could hit U.S. chip industry, White House warns" (https://www.reuters.com/technology/white-house-tells-chip-industry-brace-russian-supply-disruptions-2022-02-11)
"... regarding Russian/Ukrainian production of a number of semiconductor materials... referencing a summary by Techcet on C4F6 {Hexafluorobutadiene} Palladium, Helium, Neon and Scandium...
"According to Techcet estimates, over 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon supplies come from Ukraine, while 35% of U.S. palladium is sourced from Russia."
It's amazing how complex the semiconductor supply chain is. I hope this doesn't get ugly but with the White House issuing fresh warnings, they're assuming it is.
" Mother, should I trust the government ? "
Pink Floyd, The Wall, 1979
" Mother, should I trust the government ? "You should trust them as much as you trust big pharma. Last year that was apparently not at all, but this year they are our friends.
Pink Floyd, The Wall, 1979
The weird market is not only exploding, it's doing better than the authorized distributors, since the bastards bought all of the supplies for various chips and are now selling them at insane prices. A chip that normally costs ~5 USD is now being offered for ~120 USD by certain vendors, who seem to have incredible amounts of it and it was certainly not bought out by them in order to screw everyone over, further amplifying the ongoing shitstorm. I do hope that they get eaten by rabid gerbils or some such.Nothing to do with shortages, fake chips have been a thing for many years.
All those opamps, DS18B20, FT232 and other popular "hobbyist" chips you get from auction sites are fake. What cannot be faked is recycled.
I wonder what those odd reasons could be :D
Well yeah, but with the shortages, people are much more willing to take a chance on a nonauthorized distributor, so the market for fake parts is exploding. A real shame.
And Roger Waters's answer on the "The Wall" tour:"Russia could hit U.S. chip industry, White House warns" (https://www.reuters.com/technology/white-house-tells-chip-industry-brace-russian-supply-disruptions-2022-02-11)
"... regarding Russian/Ukrainian production of a number of semiconductor materials... referencing a summary by Techcet on C4F6 {Hexafluorobutadiene} Palladium, Helium, Neon and Scandium...
"According to Techcet estimates, over 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon supplies come from Ukraine, while 35% of U.S. palladium is sourced from Russia."
It's amazing how complex the semiconductor supply chain is. I hope this doesn't get ugly but with the White House issuing fresh warnings, they're assuming it is.
" Mother, should I trust the government ? "
Pink Floyd, The Wall, 1979
"No fu(king way"
The weird market is not only exploding, it's doing better than the authorized distributors, since the bastards bought all of the supplies for various chips and are now selling them at insane prices. A chip that normally costs ~5 USD is now being offered for ~120 USD by certain vendors, who seem to have incredible amounts of it and it was certainly not bought out by them in order to screw everyone over, further amplifying the ongoing shitstorm. I do hope that they get eaten by rabid gerbils or some such.
It's a shame anti-hoarding laws were only used for toilet paper and masks. In a supply crisis the efficient market hypothesis is bull. Rationing is the economically optimal way to assign supply, not driving everyone without the size to deal directly with manufacturers (who are rationing among their customers) or very deep pockets out of business.Because centrally planned economies have historically done so well?
Because centrally planned economies have historically done so well?It's how every winning side has won a major war.
Because centrally planned economies have historically done so well?It's how every winning side has won a major war.
Anti-hoarding measures usually just limit the amount of margin suppliers can charge and stocking. Since the prices hoarders charge have no impact on the prices the manufacturers can charge it will not distort market mechanisms.
The situation with non-official sellers is also out of hand. For some odd reason, they grind off the markings and re-laser them. On some chips, the grinding is not deep enough and the old markings shine through. Just the date code is different.
The weird market is not only exploding, it's doing better than the authorized distributors, since the bastards bought all of the supplies for various chips and are now selling them at insane prices. A chip that normally costs ~5 USD is now being offered for ~120 USD by certain vendors, who seem to have incredible amounts of it and it was certainly not bought out by them in order to screw everyone over, further amplifying the ongoing shitstorm. I do hope that they get eaten by rabid gerbils or some such.
It's a shame anti-hoarding laws were only used for toilet paper and masks.
In a supply crisis the efficient market hypothesis is bull. Rationing is the economically optimal way to assign supply, not driving everyone without the size to deal directly with manufacturers (who are rationing among their customers) or very deep pockets out of business.
Octopart now has an inventory history preview, showing the last year of inventory data for many parts. Quite nice!
Fortunately there is a bit of standardization in pinouts and packages for those, which helps a bit.
Octopart now has an inventory history preview, showing the last year of inventory data for many parts. Quite nice!
Octopart now has an inventory history preview, showing the last year of inventory data for many parts. Quite nice!
Octopart used to have that years ago (up until 2018 IIRC), along with the PRICE HISTORY of the part.
If you think things are bad now, just wait until China invades Taiwan. It's not a matter of "if" but of "when".
I'm predicting a fail at on-shoring semiconductor fab because it's extremely rooted in Asia and advanced technology takes a long time, years, to establish.Just as no one individual has the knowledge and skills to build anything more than a very simple thing, countries are now in the same position. If you capture Taiwan, but not the Netherlands, how long will it take for local suppliers in your new empire to master deep EUV machines, so TSMC's plants can move forwards. In my youth we lived in a time of mutually assured destruction. Now we live in a time of mutually assured stagnation. A war might end when you run out of spare parts, because you've severely screwed up the supply chain.
china doing the same as putin right now "reclaiming their rightful clay" yup it's going to happen and nothing can stop it.
What a fiasco.
russian surveillance drones in Ukraine, full of Western electronics parts (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/11/russian-military-drones-ukraine/) , Maxim, Digi, Xilinx Spartan FPGA etc. illegal exporting (https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/russian-agent-sentenced-10-years-acting-unregistered-agent-russian-government-and) interesting that russian semiconductor production is tiny since the '90's and over 10 years $50 million semi's procured from one path alone.You can build a pretty sophisticated drone entirely from EAR99 parts.
[...] mutually assured stagnation [...]
Recently somebody told me: things have to get worst first before things get better.[...] mutually assured stagnation [...]
LOL :D
Yes, that's pretty much exactly what we have. After the freezing of international relations, we are seeing inflation and shortages everywhere, outbreak of open hostilities, etc. We are moving backwards.
The only sensible company is IBM who just started building their own fab at a cost of billions.
I think EU and US should get together.
For designated components buying/preordering more than X$ or 2 months projected supply, whichever is larger, of a component should be forbidden. All distributors should be licensed to not sell for more than X% over manufacturer quoted prices for given order size, buying from an unlicensed distributor forbidden.
...If you have a source for $25 STM32F407VG, please drop me a PN. Asking for a
If this means $25 STM32's then that's the price ... but this will also mean you have a legitimate, traceable way to get parts. It will also shift demand to parts that are in good supply or made with fabs that have plenty of capacity.
...
I would rather over pay for genuine parts.
I would rather over pay for genuine parts.
Well that's an option too, force manufacturers to sell by auction ... give the little people some access to the source.
What's happening now is that large customers (which didn't have long running contracts) get rationed supplies at low prices directly from the manufacturers, the small customers get screwed by the hoarders/scalpers. It's not a transparent free market.
What's happening now is that large customers (which didn't have long running contracts) get rationed supplies at low prices directly from the manufacturers, the small customers get screwed by the hoarders/scalpers. It's not a transparent free market.
What's happening now is that large customers (which didn't have long running contracts) get rationed supplies at low prices directly from the manufacturers, the small customers get screwed by the hoarders/scalpers. It's not a transparent free market.
Do you know how much the big OEMs are paying for their parts?
I suspect the reason they have jumped the queue is because they are willing to pay more.
Back in October 2020 Xilinx offered us a $5000 "order expedition" fee which, if paid, would guarantee us parts by March 2021. If we didn't pay it, there was no guarantee whatsoever. We were only ordering ~300 FPGAs so per chip it was a significant extra cost. In the end we got lucky with distributor supply, and were able to source the parts we needed that way... But I am sure the OEMs are paying top dollar for the chips they can't get - and this is one reason that products are increasing in price.
I'm predicting a fail at on-shoring semiconductor fab because it's extremely rooted in Asia and advanced technology takes a long time, years, to establish.Just as no one individual has the knowledge and skills to build anything more than a very simple thing, countries are now in the same position. If you capture Taiwan, but not the Netherlands, how long will it take for local suppliers in your new empire to master deep EUV machines, so TSMC's plants can move forwards. In my youth we lived in a time of mutually assured destruction. Now we live in a time of mutually assured stagnation. A war might end when you run out of spare parts, because you've severely screwed up the supply chain.
china doing the same as putin right now "reclaiming their rightful clay" yup it's going to happen and nothing can stop it.
You missed the point entirely. When you move simple low skilled labour, its easy to move it back again. It just costs money. When you've allowed large amounts of high skills, and advanced technologies, to develop somewhere else over decades its a slow and difficult process to replicate those things in your own territory. Also, public money had a terrible track record of getting these things to work.I'm predicting a fail at on-shoring semiconductor fab because it's extremely rooted in Asia and advanced technology takes a long time, years, to establish.Just as no one individual has the knowledge and skills to build anything more than a very simple thing, countries are now in the same position. If you capture Taiwan, but not the Netherlands, how long will it take for local suppliers in your new empire to master deep EUV machines, so TSMC's plants can move forwards. In my youth we lived in a time of mutually assured destruction. Now we live in a time of mutually assured stagnation. A war might end when you run out of spare parts, because you've severely screwed up the supply chain.
china doing the same as putin right now "reclaiming their rightful clay" yup it's going to happen and nothing can stop it.
I think I need to remind that root cause of the off-shoring in the first place was cost but more importantly, local tedious labor. ;)
With that said, what I'm expecting to see is a renaissance (re-birth) of local manufacturing in spots simply because of the changed attitude towards critical manufacturing.
And trying not to double down on controversy, I think the only way this will get a leg up is from public money, not private.
The problem with public money is who gets to pick the winners (those who get the public funds) and the losers (those who are deemed unsuitable)?
There don't need to be losers, the world isn't a zero-sum game.... Not trying to cast aspersions, by the way. Whether or not this was what you're angling at, just to say that these are common beliefs among conservatives generally, not you in particular. (Or maybe I am; I don't know. One sentence is not usually much of a gauge of ones' beliefs. I'll certainly extend that benefit of a doubt!)No offense taken, and I share your observations. I definitely don't subscribe to the zero sum theory, in fact I think history proves that economic leverage can yield a multiplicative effect. It's not guaranteed, of course.
As I referenced earlier in this thread, the (US) government has tried before to weigh in... specifically in the area of semiconductors! - with SEMATECH in the 80's. That's just one easy example, and the only significant difference then to now is that back then it was the growing Japanese dominance of IC fabrication that was used to rationalize the tax dollars. I'll leave it to the reader to see how much real effect it had, and how the "mission" has changed in the meantime. But one could argue that if SEMATECH had been successful we wouldn't be asking the same questions (and proposing the same "solutions") today.
Government has a role to play in large collective efforts. Examples might include the Louisiana Purchase and the Space Program, where the "project" could not jump-start itself and required a huge bolus of investment to get things rolling before the private sector could ramp up. But IC fabrication, while constantly advancing, is pretty much an established industry at this point. It's quite possible to budget and schedule a new fab with reasonable accuracy. It's no longer in the realm of "pushing the science" but simply on-shoring known technology.
The same could be done for metal foundries, many of which closed here in response to increased overseas capacity during the last several decades. I'm sure there are plenty more industries in similar situations, since offshoring isn't unique to semiconductors nor metal fabrication. Should we be on-shoring all those industries too? If there's not enough tax dollars to do all of them, which (entire!) industries does "the public" decide are worthy and which not? Isn't that picking winners and losers? It eventually gets called subsidizing, a dirty word used by those whose pet project/industry/cause isn't similarly funded.
EDIT: Lest I be branded as only complaining without offering suggestions, how about this. It's a generally accepted economic premise that you get less of those things which are taxed. The corollary is that you get more of those things which are taxed less. If we want more domestic IC fabrication because we deem it in the public interest, how about we specifically exempt it from taxation? If necessary, THAT could be a zero-sum (aka "paygo") tax relationship ("investment" dollars which would have been spent could be made roughly equal to "tax revenue" dollars which instead go uncollected). This removes the politicians from making winner/loser decisions, and instead incentivizes existing entities to favor investing in domestic facilities. Just an idea, one that is much easier and less contentious to implement.
Do you know how much the big OEMs are paying for their parts?
I suspect the reason they have jumped the queue is because they are willing to pay more.
Exactly. They have a contract, if the ICs are not delivered, lawyers are getting involved.Do you know how much the big OEMs are paying for their parts?
I suspect the reason they have jumped the queue is because they are willing to pay more.
Not every consumer electronics manufacturer is running losses, so they aren't paying scalper prices.
Not every consumer electronics manufacturer is running losses, so they aren't paying scalper prices.
Exactly. They have a contract, if the ICs are not delivered, lawyers are getting involved.
I told management, that the best way they can help the situations is with better contracts. And stopping with this JIT mentality.
I expect things to become even more challenging with the current conflict in Ukraine. For example, Ukraine is the leading producer of neon.
But only the really big boys can contract directly with manufacturers, distributors and the people dependent on them get the dregs.That's generally true, but recently we established direct purchasing from Amphenol (connectors) when we learned their minimum order volume was just 500 pieces. Slashed our per-piece cost by ~40% too compared to DigiKey, Mouser, etc. at the same quantities. Granted manufacturers are often 20+ weeks out in scheduling but if you can plan your production (or just stock ahead of time for the $avings) it's well worth investigating a direct relationship. You never know.
That's generally true, but recently we established direct purchasing from Amphenol (connectors) when we learned their minimum order volume was just 500 pieces. Slashed our per-piece cost by ~40% too compared to DigiKey, Mouser, etc. at the same quantities.
Volkswagen, Continental, Bosch etc. were fully ready to sue NXP for their failure to manage their supply chain and fulfill existing contracts. Not sure if it will still happen or not.Probably because they're single source parts. Do they really want to sue the only guy that can make the parts they need? Never forget the Number One Rule:
NXP did not honour existing (pre-pandemic) supply contracts, then forced customers to take a new contract, upped prices and still won't commit to anything other than "niceness" to supplying automotive MCUs.
According to free market hypotheses, it should pay someone to step up to the plate and supply the demand... Why isn't that happening?
According to free market hypotheses, it should pay someone to step up to the plate and supply the demand... Why isn't that happening?
engineers are redesigning products to accommodate more alternatives
Quoteengineers are redesigning products to accommodate more alternatives
Designing-out anything from Maxim is a good start ;)
It's ugly with chipmakers playing favorites.
Thousands Of ‘Unfinished’ Ford Bronco Pile Up, Can’t Be Delivered Due To Chip Shortage (https://autojosh.com/thousands-of-unfinished-ford-bronco-pile-up-cant-be-delivered-due-to-chip-shortage)
Ford's approach is to keep building and advise customers "just 3 more months"... which is nothing in semiconductor fab times.
Quoteengineers are redesigning products to accommodate more alternatives
Designing-out anything from Maxim is a good start ;)
We can, uh, learn to fabricate ?
It's ugly with chipmakers playing favorites.You don't really know who's playing favourites here.
Thousands Of ‘Unfinished’ Ford Bronco Pile Up, Can’t Be Delivered Due To Chip Shortage (https://autojosh.com/thousands-of-unfinished-ford-bronco-pile-up-cant-be-delivered-due-to-chip-shortage)
Ford's approach is to keep building and advise customers "just 3 more months"... which is nothing in semiconductor fab times.
I tried to find out what exactly is causing the new Bronco's to sit parked, automotive ECU MCU's are highly specialized and Ford did appear to drive them to the parking lot. So it's not the ECU, but some more generic module such as Body Control or Infotainment.They don't have to be parked up with all essential electronics modules. The 'ferry' drivers could simply be unplugging critical modules in short supply and bringing them back to the plant to ferry the next car. Its trivial for Ford to patch the firmware to bypass any checks that would disable the vehicle if serial numbers didn't match, and ignore all missing modules not directly involved with the drivetrain, brakes and steering + enough lights to be street legal, as long as they clearly mark such patched ECUs and keep tight control of them so they don't escape into the wild!
Base price USD $38K, Raptor starts at $70K and tops out at $80K. You'd think it's a cash cow?
We can, uh, learn to fabricate ?
I've asked this question around here numerous times in various parlances, in search of the right answer. Bottom line, the consensus is a sound No.
My attitude is that even if we attempt to recommence anything in either of our countries, the real problem is labor laws that can jeopardize anything slightly prosperous.
I'd like to contribute financially to something, but the historic behaviour of regulation and restriction cause me to fear that it's a waste of effort.
More time needs to pass.
Arrgh! I ordered some parts from Digi-Key. One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th! Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated? Seems deceptive!
Jon
Online ordering at Digi-Key was fine until they started this marketplace thing. Yes, I see the attraction for D-K, they don't have to stock anything anymore!
We really are starting to expose the breakdown of automated online ordering.
Online ordering at Digi-Key was fine until they started this marketplace thing. Yes, I see the attraction for D-K, they don't have to stock anything anymore!
We really are starting to expose the breakdown of automated online ordering.
Great plan, except for the customer who expects when he orders something that shows "in stock" then he expects he will get it shortly.
Jon
Russia-Ukraine crisis puts pressure on microchip supply chain
6 Mar, 2022
Global chip makers rely heavily on materials sourced in the two countries like neon and palladium
The already-stretched semiconductor industry is expected to suffer more interruptions from the current conflict in Eastern Europe, as Ukraine and Russia provide the bulk of the world’s supplies of neon and palladium, vital for the production of microchips.
Neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, is a by-product of Russian steel manufacturing. It is then purified in Ukraine. Palladium is used in sensors and memory, among other applications.
The current global chip shortage will worsen if the standoff persists as more than 40% of the world’s supply of palladium comes from Russia, while Ukraine produces 70% of the global supply of neon, according to Moody’s Analytics.
“During the 2014-2015 war in Ukraine, neon prices went up by several times over, indicating how serious this can be for the semiconductor industry: semiconductor-exposure companies make up 70% of total neon demand, as it is an integral part of the lithographic process for making chips,” Tim Uy of Moody’s Analytics wrote in a recent report, seen by the Business Standard.
The ongoing chip shortage severely hit global producers during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21 after remote work and mobility restrictions triggered an acceleration of digitization across the world.
Moody’s expects the chip crunch to deepen if a deal is not brokered in the coming months, with industries highly dependent on semiconductors to be impacted accordingly.
“This means significant risks are ahead for many automakers, electronic device manufacturers, phone makers, and many other sectors that are increasingly reliant on chips for their products to work,” the experts warn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#ProductionThe whole neon thing seems to be a red herring. They only produce 20% of the world's supply, and any plant making liquid oxygen, nitrogen and argon from the atmosphere should be able to separate out the rarer components of air if required to. I assume right now most of the numerous separation plants just don't have a big enough market for the rarer noble gases to bother with them.
"Neon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants"
Far from a novel process that can't be setup elsewhere. It will take time, but there are other production plants that will happily sell more at a higher price to make up the difference.
I think the biggest worry (for Europe) is Russian gas - though Russia would be wise to be cautious over turning the taps off to Europe. Doing so is likely to create deep distrust of Russian gas in the future, removing one lever of influence that the Russians have. Gazprom contributes some $60 billion a year to the Russian economy - for a country with 'strategic reserves' of $600 bn that's huge.That entire situation is screwed up now, because it was screwed up before. Look at that pipeline... it's a terrible risk for both sides of the transaction. It's a single point to single point investment. If anything "happens" at either end, Russia loses a single-source revenue stream and Germany loses a single-source energy stream. I'm sure it felt "green" to the Germans but they're going to feel blue when they can't heat their houses and generate electricity.
It seems assemblers also have a hard time making quotations these days. I'm waiting for weeks already to get quotes to have some boards produced. I already procured the hard-to-get parts... :-// I just ordered a solder paste dispenser as I'm contemplating on assembling the boards myself. :scared: I don't want to wait much longer.
Pre-chip shortage finding precision negative LDOs was a bit like hen's teeth. You could find them, but far less selection than you would have liked.
For a few designs I just rolled my own using a spare op-amp on the board.
Pre-chip shortage finding precision negative LDOs was a bit like hen's teeth. You could find them, but far less selection than you would have liked.
For a few designs I just rolled my own using a spare op-amp on the board.
This is where blokes like you and TszaNand will separate the sheep from the goats.
When the rubber hits the road, a lot of spoilt kids are going to left wanting.
On the topic, I am sure a lot of lead times quoted are pure BS.Lead times are always BS. Like a salesman telling you the thing they are pushing is "off the shelf", you order and you get 10 weeks delivery. I guess the salesman just forgot to specify which planet that shelf was on.
The problem with "renewables" is that they are not 24/7, so you need gas power stations to make up the fluctuating generation.Not if you adapt demand to supply. Then the 24/7 generation only needs to cover the loads that cannot be rescheduled.
If there's demand, supply will eventually rise to satisfy it. Even if people simply run private generators on gasoline. This is the same basic argument as "We must lower our standard of living" but consumers will not put up with it, and business people will not leave such an opportunity unharvested.You forgot the magic ingredient - oppression.
No need to go to Hawaii. Same thing was promoted here in Ontario some time back, they were giving you a free thermostat in exchange of you allowing the mother ship to control the air conditioner in your house
...they were giving you a free thermostat in exchange of you allowing the mother ship to control the air conditioner in your house... A free thermostat, that doesn't work sometimesI would think the crowd here would be uniquely empowered to, ahem, "fix" that problem. In a manner not visible upstream. For research purposes only, of course.
Quote...they were giving you a free thermostat in exchange of you allowing the mother ship to control the air conditioner in your house... A free thermostat, that doesn't work sometimesI would think the crowd here would be uniquely empowered to, ahem, "fix" that problem. In a manner not visible upstream. For research purposes only, of course.
I thought of that. Remember, they don't know what loads are active. Only that the HVAC isn't active because they remotely turned it off, right? >:D Could be anything... water heater, pool pump....There are load disambiguation systems that try to figure out which loads are turning on and off, and how much they consume. They don't work nearly as well as the developers would like to claim, but you might be surprised how well they do work. For many of the things they are being developed for they need to be almost 100% reliable, which they aren't. However, to look for usage patterns, rather than fine details, they can do a pretty good job.
I thought of that. Remember, they don't know what loads are active. Only that the HVAC isn't active because they remotely turned it off, right? >:D Could be anything... water heater, pool pump....There are load disambiguation systems that try to figure out which loads are turning on and off, and how much they consume. They don't work nearly as well as the developers would like to claim, but you might be surprised how well they do work. For many of the things they are being developed for they need to be almost 100% reliable, which they aren't. However, to look for usage patterns, rather than fine details, they can do a pretty good job.
You should be able to game that. Turn off the load when commanded, but turn it back on some random time later. Never turn it on immediately, when commanded to. It should be possible to fuzz things up enough to confuse something following the timing.I thought of that. Remember, they don't know what loads are active. Only that the HVAC isn't active because they remotely turned it off, right? >:D Could be anything... water heater, pool pump....There are load disambiguation systems that try to figure out which loads are turning on and off, and how much they consume. They don't work nearly as well as the developers would like to claim, but you might be surprised how well they do work. For many of the things they are being developed for they need to be almost 100% reliable, which they aren't. However, to look for usage patterns, rather than fine details, they can do a pretty good job.
Since they know when the a/c should be turning on or off, I think it'd make this easier than the usual load disambiguation systems. They might already include this as error checking for their system: look for incr load when they try to turn a/c on and a decr when they try to turn it off.
You should be able to game that. Turn off the load when commanded, but turn it back on some random time later. Never turn it on immediately, when commanded to. It should be possible to fuzz things up enough to confuse something following the timing.I thought of that. Remember, they don't know what loads are active. Only that the HVAC isn't active because they remotely turned it off, right? >:D Could be anything... water heater, pool pump....There are load disambiguation systems that try to figure out which loads are turning on and off, and how much they consume. They don't work nearly as well as the developers would like to claim, but you might be surprised how well they do work. For many of the things they are being developed for they need to be almost 100% reliable, which they aren't. However, to look for usage patterns, rather than fine details, they can do a pretty good job.
Since they know when the a/c should be turning on or off, I think it'd make this easier than the usual load disambiguation systems. They might already include this as error checking for their system: look for incr load when they try to turn a/c on and a decr when they try to turn it off.
The problem with "renewables" is that they are not 24/7, so you need gas power stations to make up the fluctuating generation. The more wind you install, the more gas you need to install. Nuclear is a good solution - the very best we have - but not if you also have a lot of wind generation. And nuclear is not (yet) politically achievable in Germany... well, give it a few more weeks, the landscape on the mainland is changing fast ;)
However now we can build models on a certain number of wind turbines, combined with a certain amount of storage, and in the southern parts of the country combining this with solar PV, and test such a system in various scenarios that shows that we will never have a power outage in 300 years based on known and changing weather patterns. No (natural) gas required, no nuclear required.Back in the university our classes about power distribution always focused on the peak energy and redundancies to the system. Known and changing weather patterns is the norm for 99.9999% of the time, but the accommodation was always targeting how to solve the remaining 0.0001% where availability can be impacted.
There are island nations using purely renewable energy alreadyThe ideal is that every home generates its own power. Right now that could be done with natural gas (albeit more per KWH than most people pay from "the grid") with a NatGas genset at every house. Well under $10K particularly if done during construction. But regardless of the fuel source, we should "go local" (not just down to the island/continent, but to the property/structure) to eliminate dependency upon all the interconnects. Every time there's severe weather it downs power lines and takes out power supply to huge swaths of homes and businesses. We (re)spend gobs of money (re)constructing all this aboveground infrastructure with the full knowledge it will come down again, yet there's never enough money to bury it out of harm's way in the first place. If each property generated its own power, all of that hassle and agony and risk and danger and waste would simply disappear.
There are island nations using purely renewable energy already;Name one, and let's see if we can pick that apart.
Is there really a significant increase in demand for end user products? [...]
I need like 10 in total, so you can fuck right off with your attitude, I'm not going to spend time playing around with zeners or opamps just to get a stable voltage. :rant:Pre-chip shortage finding precision negative LDOs was a bit like hen's teeth. You could find them, but far less selection than you would have liked.
For a few designs I just rolled my own using a spare op-amp on the board.
This is where blokes like you and TszaNand will separate the sheep from the goats.
When the rubber hits the road, a lot of spoilt kids are going to left wanting.
Moving on from the alt energy diversion.
I think I might have found the most overpriced scalped part yet; a normally $10-12 USD PIC24 is $1,115 USD on Win-Source.
https://www.win-source.net/microchip-technology-pic24ep512gu810-ipt.html (https://www.win-source.net/microchip-technology-pic24ep512gu810-ipt.html)
Anyone beat me?
Arrgh! I ordered some parts from Digi-Key. One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th! Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated? Seems deceptive!I spent all WEEK trying to call Rochester, they never return calls, never answer. Groan. Analog Devices has the part, but minimum order is 100 pieces. They do give a volume discount, but still $17 each. That is a fairly big order for me.
Jon
Arrgh! I ordered some parts from Digi-Key. One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th! Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated? Seems deceptive!I spent all WEEK trying to call Rochester, they never return calls, never answer. Groan. Analog Devices has the part, but minimum order is 100 pieces. They do give a volume discount, but still $17 each. That is a fairly big order for me.
Jon
Jon
Any guesses yet as to when the chip crisis might ease?The issue is not fab capacity. The issue is China buying all the components to sell it back for 20x the price.
I thought that fab capacity was now back to what it should be, but it seems demand is still well above pre-shortage, and prices and lead times remain colossal. And it seems the chip crisis has now shifted down-market to the older less fancy chip types, certainly when it began you coud get AVRs and standard logic gates on the likes of RS, it was the cutting edge stuff that was hard to source, now you can't get any of those older chips (at least in SMD formats).
Is the end of the chip crisis going to start with the fancy stuff bought at industrially high volume, then move down to old chips and small scale supply, just as the start of it seems to have done?
Rochester have been weird throughout the past eighteen months or so. Early on, they would only let you buy complete or remnant reels: no reel splitting because "too busy". The last time I used them about four months ago it took two weeks for them to dispatch from their warehouse.Well, I really just want to buy what are SUPPOSED to be current AD parts. AD shows the 2S1200 as a "current" part, and in stock at the factory.
They do deliver, but it is reminiscent of walking into the only poker game in town.
The issue is not fab capacity. The issue is China buying all the components to sell it back for 20x the price. It is solved when politics gets involved.If you think today's situation is bad, wait until China decides to attack Taiwan. Ukraine will be lost in the noise compared to the global impacts of TSMC and other electronics manufacturers going behind either a war or the Bamboo Curtain.
Any guesses yet as to when the chip crisis might ease?The issue is not fab capacity. The issue is China buying all the components to sell it back for 20x the price.
I thought that fab capacity was now back to what it should be, but it seems demand is still well above pre-shortage, and prices and lead times remain colossal. And it seems the chip crisis has now shifted down-market to the older less fancy chip types, certainly when it began you coud get AVRs and standard logic gates on the likes of RS, it was the cutting edge stuff that was hard to source, now you can't get any of those older chips (at least in SMD formats).
Is the end of the chip crisis going to start with the fancy stuff bought at industrially high volume, then move down to old chips and small scale supply, just as the start of it seems to have done?
It is solved when politics gets involved.
China has been melting down for years;That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
China has been melting down for years;That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
China has been melting down for years;That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
It is curious.
That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
Digi-Key sent an email updating their expected delivery to DECEMBER 2022! I placed an order with Rochester Electronics, and they show expected ship on Mar 22, AND $4 cheaper per part! Well, I won't declare victory until the parts show up, but this is good news. I don't understand the crazy business going on between Digi-Key and Rochester. Why can I order directly from Rochester, but Digi-Key can't deliver parts from them for 9 months?Arrgh! I ordered some parts from Digi-Key. One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th! Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated? Seems deceptive!I spent all WEEK trying to call Rochester, they never return calls, never answer. Groan. Analog Devices has the part, but minimum order is 100 pieces. They do give a volume discount, but still $17 each. That is a fairly big order for me.
Jon
Jon
So, your saying that have rapidly learned from western countries? They seem to be doing so in most areas.QuoteThat's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
A steep decline in business ethics.
A steep shortening in how long a person stays in a job, so "relationship continuity" is hard.
A steep increase in company failures. Most of these are due to fraud, which has led the govt there to adopt aggressive measures on failing companies; basically everything which has not been stolen by the employees (it is normal for employees to steal what they can, if a business goes bust, and it happens in the West too) gets locked up in a warehouse, basically for ever, or until somebody else steals it :) In some cases the original management steals it and offers to sell it back to the original customers; I've had that a few times :)
A steep rise in blatent opportunism.
All the above especially in the last 5-10 years.
So, your saying that have rapidly learned from western countries? They seem to be doing so in most areas.
That is why Apple etc have their own people at Foxconn, watching, and kicking ass as needed.Well, that's the thing with any form of outsourcing. You have to do it in a way that requires the minimum of trust from both sides if you want it to go well. This isn't good for people doing it on a small scale. As usual, things favour large corporate entities. Walmart has 5000 staff in Shenzhen just controlling their contracts with suppliers. Being inside China they can frequently meet suppliers, inspect factories, check approvals and other monitoring are legit, etc. Small players can't do that. If you try to recruit your own team on the far side they will generally treat you with great suspicion, assuming your goals are short term, while they need a way to sustain a 40 year career. You need to take very positive steps to ensure they understand you are genuinely there for the long haul, if they can succeed in making you succeed.
just to have The effeminate West blink, shed tears then yield and so avoid doomsday.It's feeling more and more like the West's peak of achievement was the Apollo moon landings. Today the West is more concerned about everyone's "feelings" instead of achieving new accomplishments and moving the marker forward. I don't mean to throw anyone under the bus, but you need a balance and right now the West is extremely unbalanced toward "feelings" and away from achievements.
I get your drift, of course (amazing about Wallmart) but I doubt anybody is after a 40 year old career in today's China. More like 40 months, max. Usual job span for the English speaking sales person is about 6 months...Don't judge the entire job market by one rare skill in high demand. Most engineers in Chinese want to settle into a place that's successful, and do OK there for years. Chinese people have a much greater urge to start their own business than people in the UK, but they only job hope because its the only way to move forwards.
There was a magnitude 7.3 earthquake this morning off the coast of Japan that has the potential of impacting chip production in Japanese fabs. If that turns out to be the case, expect further chip shortages.
(https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=KtI0fXD1syGQE30FMkoGXBg-x3cHjPSpMP-i3pI7fUHwL5GtxnuWKAT3ps-37RiLq48k5muED5OKPJqafi4hvmN4DX3_3EPVgRi8IECppAwvKRZVebYRhTvP8SwEHP2VqaHV7eobExRST6yE1p6uIFb5Y3Ep0uslGS4s_cAhEvyCbySeO0LpfGmBCMFm3jEChbUTdp_9IBYj4aSjWudo-PqmLac0HbDTeVpasM43iQ?scale=1&h=192&w=598)
just to have The effeminate West blink, shed tears then yield and so avoid doomsday.It's feeling more and more like the West's peak of achievement was the Apollo moon landings. Today the West is more concerned about everyone's "feelings" instead of achieving new accomplishments and moving the marker forward. I don't mean to throw anyone under the bus, but you need a balance and right now the West is extremely unbalanced toward "feelings" and away from achievements.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-parts-makers-halt-output-after-quake-another-blow-supply-chain-2022-03-17/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-parts-makers-halt-output-after-quake-another-blow-supply-chain-2022-03-17/)There was a quake on the south coast of China last week. It wasn't strong enough to cause damage in Taiwan, but I expect that messed up any work in progress at TSMC that day.
That is true; things are not getting better over here, in some areas. But the key difference is that you can't just drop in on somebody in China, and they know it.Indeed. The system is designed like that. Ultra-large corporations bring palpable benefits to the manufacturing/exporter country, so mechanisms were put in place to minimize the risk of losing this business. The success stories of these ventures brought a slew of smaller and smaller companies that needed the cost reductions to be able to compete, but the enforcement was never intended to cover everyone - only the powerful can benefit. This is an even greater risk for technology-based companies, which rely on intellectual property protection to stay ahead.
They know they have you by the balls. And the old saying "possession is nine tenths of the law" is 100% true when the "injured party" cannot just visit.
The old business trick in the West has been: set up a business in the middle of nowhere (say Scotland) and a long way from your suppliers (say south of England). Run it overtly for a year. Then when you have credit accounts with a load of suppliers, do a runner. After 60 days they will start chasing their money, but as you stopped paying your phone bills a few months earlier, the phone will be cut off. As you made sure you owe nobody more than say 2k, who will drive hundreds of miles to give you trouble, for < 2k? Of course you pay off all taxes, and then you will never be disqualified as a Director (in practice that's how it works).That is true unless you "know people" - it was like that in Brasil, and it is being much more evident and blatantly obvious here in the US, as recent local events here show (release of a convict "pseudo-actor" just because of his victimization cards, sudden realization of a revealing laptop that belonged to the son of the current zombie-in-chief and so on).
The above is not easy, because if you p1ss off somebody badly, they can give you a lot of trouble here. They could even visit you with a baseball bat, if you are in the building trade ;)
Intel is spending big money $19B (https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/15/intel_germany_europe_investment/) on a fab in Magdeburg, Germany as well other places in Europe. It won't be running until 2027 at the earliest.
We're in for at least 5 more years of shortages, unless a recession hits.
About 3000 CP rail workers just went on strike / lockout. CP rail is not the biggest railway in Canada but owns about 20Mm of track. Not sure if this strike will impact chipageddon but it's an example of more possible decreases in productivity. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more strikes as workers are essentially getting pay cuts while inflation outpaces wages.
This is not a shortage of fabs.Really?
This is simply due to everybody with more than 2 cents to rub together spending it on loads and loads of stock. No different to people going crazy on stocking up with toilet rolls during coronavirus lockdowns.Shortages are mostly triggered by real problems. People pilling on, and grabbing stock is a consequence of a real problem, which makes things worse. Initially factories being shut down by COVID reduced the demand for semiconductors. Then, the surge in demand for anything related to people's new activities, like working from home, created real surges in demand. Then the pile on made it worse. As a vendor you need to look really carefully at these orders flooding in, because in most of these panic buying periods many of these orders will be cancelled before they are fulfilled. You can end up with massive stockpiles you will never shift if you are not careful.
It was all triggered by the virus, same as the Russian invasion of Ukraine (via Putin's self imposed isolation and going mad as a result), same as so much else.
Eventually it will come to an end, loads of stock will end up with surplus dealers, Ebay, etc, and a few designers will have learnt a few hard lessons.Surprise, surprise. Surges in demand don't persist, and are followed by slumps. Whoda thought? This is why many semiconductor vendors are not that enthusiastic about making massive new investments during demand surges. Its more reliable to put efforts into squeezing out a little extra production from existing capacity during the duration of the boom. Interestingly the general global economic cycle is about 11-12 years, but cycles in the semiconductor industry run at twice that rate.
Hopefully JIT will be treated with the contempt it deserves, although I doubt it because the practice of f******g the smaller companies in the supply pipeline is an essential part of business, along with an MBA in "supply chain management" from the Univ of Upper Chippingham.JIT has HUGE upside. Over the long term bit players are not going to care about the short term problems it may be causing right now.
Shortages are mostly triggered by real problems. People pilling on, and grabbing stock is a consequence of a real problem
You said there is no shortage of fabs. There is a shortage, but panic buying as soon as the shortage becomes obvious makes the problem appear a lot worse than it really is.QuoteShortages are mostly triggered by real problems. People pilling on, and grabbing stock is a consequence of a real problem
That's what I said, so why disagree?
JIT has HUGE upside.Yes, on paper, JIT is very efficient. But in the real world it only "works" if everything goes according to plan. "Properly" implemented, JIT leaves you vulnerable to a single glitch from a single vendor. I've been in this industry long enough to admit that I cannot predict the unpredictable.
seen a "JIT" shop
JIT sounds great,
but Job Number One must always be "keep production online". If JIT risks that, it must be backed off until it doesn't.
Just more examples of fundamentally misunderstanding the concept of JIT. As managers are wont to do. To reiterate: it's the process of applying statistical methods to control inventory levels. You keep just enough inventory on hand to cover expected surges in production use, or droughts in supply. Tie in supplier deliveries / contract timing too, why not. Anything that correlates, bring it in.
Put another way: there'sseen a "JIT" shop
and there'sQuoteJIT sounds great,
. Real JIT includes:Quotebut Job Number One must always be "keep production online". If JIT risks that, it must be backed off until it doesn't.
so it's not that it's "backed off", it's that -- as is usually the case -- the greedy C-levels see shiny buzzwords and reduction of inventory and dollarsigns in their eyes, and punch the button before they see there's actually work involved in doing the thing. And then they blame underlings, investors, regulators, whoever when it all falls apart, also as is usually the case. ::)
Tim
Well, of course. Because JIT is one of those terms that can mean anything depending on some underlying property that is hidden if you don't mention it.
The "in time" must be defined: in time for what? For keeping a safe stock level, as you just explained, or for getting the closest to catastrophe as possible? The latter is unfortunately not uncommon. I don't know if it comes from a misunderstanding, or from a deliberate choice of playing with fire while mnimizing actual stock, which is often considered "dead money" by those accountants. :popcorn:
So you are saying JIT means 'just in time when everything goes wrong'?
A good system makes it hard for users to screw up. As you say JIT invites the C-levels to make mistakes and blame their underlings.
It is the process they developed, to minimize inventory given expected fluctuations in supply and demand. You don't eliminate inventory. You size it based on the variance.So you are saying JIT means 'just in time when everything goes wrong'?
If you set out to intentionally misunderstand it. Sure.
Is this better? JIT: Just in time when a reasonable amount of things go wrong?Strictly speaking, yes. Think of it as fault tolerant design.
So you are saying JIT means 'just in time when everything goes wrong'?Who but an idiot would say that? You can't allow for every eventuality. When Asahi-Kasei's factory burned, the only thing people could do was reengineer their audio products around different ADCs and DACs, most of which make performance suffer compared to the excellent AKM products. There have been a number of disasters taking key suppliers out of a business for years like that. Some people have multiple very similar product designs ready to roll when they launch a product, so if one design hits a production roadblock they can keep shipping the others. That takes a lot of extra up front investment, though. In many cases a single supplier's offering is so compelling nothing else will really do.
In many cases a single supplier's offering is so compelling nothing else will really do.As a side note, this is one of my primary complaints about connectors. Other than a very few exceptions like D-Subs (which almost no one uses in new designs anymore), I swear it seems every connector is proprietary. There's almost no second sourcing. It's not that "nothing else will really do", it's that "nothing else is physically compatible". If you're designing wire harnesses, I guess you can substitute some other free-hanging connector. But when you're designing PCB-level products a connector change requires an artwork redesign. And likely an enclosure redesign. And that gives you incompatible stock in the field, where version B cannot act as a replacement part for version A.
Is this better? JIT: Just in time when a reasonable amount of things go wrong?
So you are saying JIT means 'just in time when everything goes wrong'?Who but an idiot would say that?
Is this better? JIT: Just in time when a reasonable amount of things go wrong?
Well, pessimistic is better than misrepresentational.
[...]
Is this what you are proposing as the alternative? Surely not!
Maybe it should be called JABE
Maybe it should be called JABE
HEY. That's NOT a TLA >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(
HEY. That's NOT a TLA >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(Neither are PROM, EPROM, EEPROM, CAFE, BATF....
If a large company mandates "JIT" from smaller companies supplying components, then the smaller companies need to maintain an inventory to ensure they can meet the contractual requirement with the larger company. You often see this with a cluster of small parts companies clustered around a large company's automotive assembly plant, where the parts plants are essentially captive to the larger company.And thus we see that JIT really means "outsource the problem to the supplier". If the inventory isn't cached in YOUR stockroom, but you still demand low latency, then it's cached in a nearby stockroom. You have outsourced the overhead to your vendor.
There's another parallel with electric vehicles. You may not be emitting byproducts in your neighborhood, but unless 100% of the electricity is coming from nonconsumable sources like solar and wind those byproducts are being emitted somewhere. EV's outsource the overhead (pollution, power plant eyesores, etc.) to someone else's neighborhood.
One slight disagreement with your point about EVs:Offtopic: Unfortunately it doesn't work that way because filtering and emission controls on a power plant are hugely expensive and older power plants are difficult to retrofit. With the Dutch energy mix (about 10% coal), BEVs emit 5 times more SO2 compared to a Toyota Prius (or similar efficient hybrid). NOx emissions for a BEV are just on the euro6 norm's edge. The SO2 emissions are largely due to the use of coal. You'll need to reduce the amount of coal-based electricity to low single digit percentages to get a BEV on par with Toyota Prius where it comes to SO2. Fuels for cars may contain up to 10ppm of Sulphur in most countries in the world (even in China) so the SO2 emissions from cars are relatively low already (less is always better ofcourse). NOx emissions are the result from both coal and natural gas burning so switching to natural gas doesn't help there.
If the power to charge EVs comes from centralized power plants, it may be more practicable to control the emissions at large plants (subject to regulatory verification) than to control exhaust emissions from smaller vehicles.
Recent data trends in US: https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/power-plant-emission-trends (https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/power-plant-emission-trends)That doesn't say anything. You'll need to calculate the emissions per kWh and convert those to the weight emitted per distance travelled. Same for emissions from an efficient hybrid. Again: this needs math. Sulphur contents of fuel has been reduced as well during the same time period that the graphs span. For example: between 1995 and now the sulphur content of diesel fuel for cars is 0.5% of what it was (reduction factor: 200) while -according to the graphs you linked to- emissions from power plants are 8% of what it was in 1995 (reduction factor: 12.5).
Not quite. The real problem is that companies have a tendency to implement JIT the wrong way by having no stock at all and order when it is too late. Half JIT is no JIT. JIT is also about supply chain management and making sure suppliers get orders far enough in advance so they can secure (raw) materials.If a large company mandates "JIT" from smaller companies supplying components, then the smaller companies need to maintain an inventory to ensure they can meet the contractual requirement with the larger company. You often see this with a cluster of small parts companies clustered around a large company's automotive assembly plant, where the parts plants are essentially captive to the larger company.And thus we see that JIT really means "outsource the problem to the supplier". If the inventory isn't cached in YOUR stockroom, but you still demand low latency, then it's cached in a nearby stockroom. You have outsourced the overhead to your vendor.
And thus we see that JIT really means "outsource the problem to the supplier". If the inventory isn't cached in YOUR stockroom, but you still demand low latency, then it's cached in a nearby stockroom. You have outsourced the overhead to your vendor.
Not in my case. My EV is charged 100% with solar. The buck stops here.Congrats. Your example is why I said "unless 100% of the electricity is coming from nonconsumable sources like solar and wind". Unfortunately, yours is the extreme exception. In the vast majority of cases across the globe, the overhead of battery charging is being outsourced (read: relocated) to someone else's neighborhood. Whether that is a good thing probably depends on which neighborhood you live in. That neatly correlates two subthreads via another non-three-letter acronym: NIMBY. 8)
Offtopic: Unfortunately it doesn't work that way because filtering and emission controls on a power plant are hugely expensive and older power plants are difficult to retrofit. With the Dutch energy mix (about 10% coal), BEVs emit 5 times more SO2 compared to a Toyota Prius (or similar efficient hybrid). NOx emissions for a BEV are just on the euro6 norm's edge. The SO2 emissions are largely due to the use of coal. You'll need to reduce the amount of coal-based electricity to low single digit percentages to get a BEV on par with Toyota Prius where it comes to SO2. Fuels for cars may contain up to 10ppm of Sulphur in most countries in the world (even in China) so the SO2 emissions from cars are relatively low already (less is always better ofcourse). NOx emissions are the result from both coal and natural gas burning so switching to natural gas doesn't help there.
This is one of the cases where you really need to do the math and use the underbelly only for the one thing it can really indicate: when it is dinner time.
Surely tube distortion is understood well enough that someone could implement it in a DSP block. I get the 'cool factor' of having real tubes but that only goes so far.A lot of guitar amp simulation in DSP is going exactly that.
Surely tube distortion is understood well enough that someone could implement it in a DSP block. I get the 'cool factor' of having real tubes but that only goes so far.
Surely tube distortion is understood well enough that someone could implement it in a DSP block. I get the 'cool factor' of having real tubes but that only goes so far.A lot of guitar amp simulation in DSP is going exactly that.
My useful reply was "But, I can still buy 6L6s!"In keeping with the title of this thread, updated for the Russia situation and that comment about the guy in France:
41.494 Expected 5/12/2023
No more distorted Putin rock and roll!
Putin was one of the guys that made the blue jeans illegal, raising their prices through the roof..
He stayed in the KGB building to protect the files when the STASI guys were all deserting their posts, and "changing into civilian clothes" whatever that meant. Or so I heard. (He was in the former DDR) He was mad that the former USSR was imploding under its own weight.
Maxim has been the odd one out in this whole situation, almost no issues with their parts
That's ironic, as Maxim parts' availability in general was recurently problematic before the shortage.
It's gonna be a lot of fun if there are sanctions against China - all those who designed in the ESP32, which gives you loads of bang for the buck compared to ST :)If there are sanctions against China ESP32 availability will be the least of the issues - whether we like it or not almost the entire electronics supply chain is built around China. If everybody suddenly tried to get non-semiconductor parts from the few manufacturers outside of China it would make current 60 week lead times seem like a walk in the park!
If there are sanctions against China ESP32 availability will be the least of the issues - whether we like it or not almost the entire electronics supply chain is built around China. If everybody suddenly tried to get non-semiconductor parts from the few manufacturers outside of China it would make current 60 week lead times seem like a walk in the park!
Europe and the USA would still be wise to build up strong semiconductor production and supply chain outside of China and Taiwan though, if only for economic reasons.They'd be well advised to build a defense around ASML's corporate headquarters too. That is the very definition of "single sourced", literally for the entire planet.
There is. There are nukes stationed just 20km away from ASML's HQ.Europe and the USA would still be wise to build up strong semiconductor production and supply chain outside of China and Taiwan though, if only for economic reasons.They'd be well advised to build a defense around ASML's corporate headquarters too. That is the very definition of "single sourced", literally for the entire planet.
Even SN74LS04N in DIP is unavailable from distributors.Well there are some if you're really desperate :
Even SN74LS04N in DIP is unavailable from distributors.Well there are some if you're really desperate :
https://www.rocelec.com/part/NSC74LS04PC?utm_source=findChips&utm_medium=buyNow (https://www.rocelec.com/part/NSC74LS04PC?utm_source=findChips&utm_medium=buyNow)
Also, who still uses DIL 74LS04's?
I think this is a good reason that short of Xi Jinping going mad like Putin (and there's so far no evidence that he will), sanctions against China are unlikely.Yes, I agree completely with all of your comments. I still however believe that it is wise to gradually diversify the supply chain so that it's never reliant on a single country to the degree it currently is on China.
China, unlike Russia, is highly integrated with the West with its technology sectors and booming middle class. While the war in Ukraine is senseless, Putin may have been able to justify his expansionist aims. There is oil and gas in both Donbas and Crimea. But China would be decimated by Western sanctions, with very little to gain. They can shout about Taiwan all day, but it doesn't bring any benefit to them to take it.
Europe and the USA would still be wise to build up strong semiconductor production and supply chain outside of China and Taiwan though, if only for economic reasons.
Would it be possible to use SN74F04 instead?Even SN74LS04N in DIP is unavailable from distributors.Well there are some if you're really desperate :
https://www.rocelec.com/part/NSC74LS04PC?utm_source=findChips&utm_medium=buyNow (https://www.rocelec.com/part/NSC74LS04PC?utm_source=findChips&utm_medium=buyNow)
Also, who still uses DIL 74LS04's?
LOL!
Well, it’s not for new stuff, it’s for repairing old stuff.
[...] it is wise to gradually diversify the supply chain so that it's never reliant on a single country to the degree it currently is on China.
Newest lead time for some Xilinx FPGAs is April 2024... two years!Does that mean you need to place orders now for the chips that are just entering the design pipeline? :)
I'm starting to be fed up with the whole situation. Every time I hear there is a part missing from our supply chain, I do a search on Octopart, just to find that there are thousands of it in stock in Win source or SHENGYU or some other noname hoarder, who will give you a quote 20 times the nominal price. And if you agree to it, they just turn around, and ask for more.
And if we buy these parts, the money is used to buy up the stock of other parts. I just checked, 85% of buck converters are out of stock at digikey, and I would argue that most of the remaining stock cannot be used for any meaningful production. And if we would want to order from the factory, the lead time is end of 2023. And they don't even have samples of the parts, to even be able to build a prototype.
I cannot do my job properly anymore.
Would it be possible to use SN74F04 instead?Even SN74LS04N in DIP is unavailable from distributors.Well there are some if you're really desperate :
https://www.rocelec.com/part/NSC74LS04PC?utm_source=findChips&utm_medium=buyNow (https://www.rocelec.com/part/NSC74LS04PC?utm_source=findChips&utm_medium=buyNow)
Also, who still uses DIL 74LS04's?
LOL!
Well, it’s not for new stuff, it’s for repairing old stuff.
https://www.mouser.com/c/?q=sn74f04 (https://www.mouser.com/c/?q=sn74f04)
Or, if Jameco delivers to you:
https://www.jameco.com/z/74LS04-Major-Brands-IC-74LS04-Hex-Inverter_46316.html (https://www.jameco.com/z/74LS04-Major-Brands-IC-74LS04-Hex-Inverter_46316.html)
I'm starting to be fed up with the whole situation. Every time I hear there is a part missing from our supply chain, I do a search on Octopart, just to find that there are thousands of it in stock in Win source or SHENGYU or some other noname hoarder, who will give you a quote 20 times the nominal price.
Newest lead time for some Xilinx FPGAs is April 2024... two years!
Newest lead time for some Xilinx FPGAs is April 2024... two years!Does that mean you need to place orders now for the chips that are just entering the design pipeline? :)
It means that whoever you're asking has absolutely *no clue* when, or if, they might actually get parts.
As a general rule, lead times up to 52 weeks mean "you'll get your parts eventually". They'll be fabricated the next time the fab makes a batch of this particular design, and that'll be some time this year - probably. You'll find out exactly when after you've placed the order, more than likely by a courier turning up unexpectedly.
53+ weeks means "even if we make the parts, you're not on the recipient list". They can't make enough to meet demand, and your order is too small to care about. You might possibly get parts eventually, but don't count on it. You're much better off redesigning.
I've heard much the same about Altera - parts are allocated to Intel internal use, preferred tier 1 customers and the US DoD only.
In other words: forget it, go buy a dev kit for Efinix or Gowin.
Possibly. But, certainly our experience so far has been that Digi-Key has kept up with the queue of orders. For instance, we got Zynq parts in June 2021, about 9 months after we ordered them, on the date promised.
Sure, no problem. Please send me the schematic for a stepdown converterer which fits into 10x10mm and can run from 1uA.
When we are finished with this useless pandering that everyone exercises here:
1. Not every circuit can be built from discretes that fulfills your requirements.
2. Sometimes you just want the exact part number, because that's the one which is certified and proven to be safe. Safe, as in "It is not going to set an oil refinery on fire, and burn people alive". Not something like it, the exact same part from the exact same factory.
My little business was affected by this apparently a lot less than many others, because I order a lot and rarely. Eventually I did run out of stuff but keeping a couple of years' stock has paid off; also in having bought chips for £0.80 which are now £2.50 (anything from Maxim really ;) ).
And I suspect a lot of other people have come to the same conclusion - stock hoarding pays off - which is why shortages remain.
There is no basic increase in demand for electronics. It is hoarding and hoarding.
Seeed is now offering to store your extra parts.Isn't that an Inverse Bernie Madoff scheme? Using your stock to cover other customers. Works great until they can't find replacements for your stock that they "loaned" to other people....
Seeed is now offering to store your extra parts.Isn't that an Inverse Bernie Madoff scheme? Using your stock to cover other customers. Works great until they can't find replacements for your stock that they "loaned" to other people....
Seeed is now offering to store your extra parts.Isn't that an Inverse Bernie Madoff scheme? Using your stock to cover other customers. Works great until they can't find replacements for your stock that they "loaned" to other people....
The Australian banking system says hi.
There is no basic increase in demand for electronics. It is hoarding and hoarding.
I don't buy that.
And, whilst people have been stuck at home, they've been spending more time in front of their TV (so they want a bigger one), want to play video games (so they bought a games console/graphics card/VR headset), and are using more of the service economy (which requires technology to enable) or buying gadgets/toys instead of going on holiday or eating out.Work from home may or may not be a large factor (I know plenty of people who have purchased electronics to work from home), but even ignoring this the other reasons tom66 listed are enough to throw the supply chain into disarray. Sure, stock hoarding doesn't help but I'd bet that it's a contributing factor rather than the primary issue.
Then there's the added cash from all of this: people buying more luxurious vehicles, for example, as other costs have been offset.
I think it's the reason why the situation will persist, having already taken hold for other reasons.I don't see it that way. The components will need to be bought at some point so it is not like more components are taken off the market.
My workflow right now has become:
- identify suitable component for a new / revised design based on in-stock availability (from a reputable supplier) that will cover the next 'N' months' worth of production, for some value of N.
- send supplier's link to customer with recommendation to purchase said component
- *then* design component into new schematic
- do not commit to new PCB until customer has confirmed that all components are already physically in their possession
Yes, that means my customers are hoarding stock,
Work from home may or may not be a large factor (I know plenty of people who have purchased electronics to work from home), but even ignoring this the other reasons tom66 listed are enough to throw the supply chain into disarray. Sure, stock hoarding doesn't help but I'd bet that it's a contributing factor rather than the primary issue.
I don't buy that.
People who are actually able to work from home (most aren't; they just muck about) are upper/middle class employees who already have all that gear.
The biggest problem has been hoarding, by mid size and above (whatever that means) companies. Plus a lot of opportunistic cowboy activity.
It's the lack of transparent communication that's so disheartening.
Do I buy parts that are in stock today, then spend the next 6 months redesigning something to substitute an unobtainable microcontroller?
Or place an order, expecting that the one that's already tried and tested will, in fact, be delivered in 6 months' time?
Either way, I don't have a product until 6 months from now - but I could have spent that time doing something worthwhile instead of just treading water.
I think it's the reason why the situation will persist, having already taken hold for other reasons.I don't see it that way. The components will need to be bought at some point so it is not like more components are taken off the market.
My workflow right now has become:
- identify suitable component for a new / revised design based on in-stock availability (from a reputable supplier) that will cover the next 'N' months' worth of production, for some value of N.
- send supplier's link to customer with recommendation to purchase said component
- *then* design component into new schematic
- do not commit to new PCB until customer has confirmed that all components are already physically in their possession
Yes, that means my customers are hoarding stock,
BTW: my way of working is the same as your describe.
I think it's the reason why the situation will persist, having already taken hold for other reasons.I don't see it that way. The components will need to be bought at some point so it is not like more components are taken off the market.
My workflow right now has become:
- identify suitable component for a new / revised design based on in-stock availability (from a reputable supplier) that will cover the next 'N' months' worth of production, for some value of N.
- send supplier's link to customer with recommendation to purchase said component
- *then* design component into new schematic
- do not commit to new PCB until customer has confirmed that all components are already physically in their possession
Yes, that means my customers are hoarding stock,
BTW: my way of working is the same as your describe.
It's interesting I guess, that such behavior can be described both as parasitic, and as a beneficial service.
The other takeaway is that: presumably, the secondary parts market is also booming, so, if you end up buying well over stock -- there's likely some money to recoup by selling it off there.
Can't be that work from home is the major factor. Too many parts without use in communications devices are out of stock.
Motor drivers
optocouplers
to name a few
I'm not sure that is the whole picture (partial yes), but the same lines that are running the cutting edge processors are not running power IGBT's or MOSFET's or motor drivers. I have heard (can't remember the source) that the raw wafers are in shortage as well, this would affect everything across the board. This would only impact silicon, not passives as well.Can't be that work from home is the major factor. Too many parts without use in communications devices are out of stock.
Motor drivers
optocouplers
to name a few
You realize that the delays are for a large part due to production in foundries being focused on chips for the communication market, thus they just don't have the capability of producing enough chips for other markets? It's not just the already fabricated parts that are being hoarded. It's production itself.
I'm not sure that is the whole picture (partial yes), but the same lines that are running the cutting edge processors are not running power IGBT's or MOSFET's or motor drivers. I have heard (can't remember the source) that the raw wafers are in shortage as well, this would affect everything across the board. This would only impact silicon, not passives as well.Can't be that work from home is the major factor. Too many parts without use in communications devices are out of stock.
Motor drivers
optocouplers
to name a few
You realize that the delays are for a large part due to production in foundries being focused on chips for the communication market, thus they just don't have the capability of producing enough chips for other markets? It's not just the already fabricated parts that are being hoarded. It's production itself.
I don't buy that.
People who are actually able to work from home (most aren't; they just muck about) are upper/middle class employees who already have all that gear.
The biggest problem has been hoarding, by mid size and above (whatever that means) companies. Plus a lot of opportunistic cowboy activity.
Because nothing encourages productivity like commuting, bag lunches, delayed dinner, noisy bright environments which are full of distractions and encourage headaches and water cooler babbling. [/sarcasm]
I am significantly more productive at home, more likely to work after dinner and before breakfast much more likely to stick around.
I'm a night owl, and I was more productive in the evening after the kid went to sleep. The only disadvantage of evening work is I can't play jazz records, as the kid's room is right next to the home office.
I'm a night owl, and I was more productive in the evening after the kid went to sleep. The only disadvantage of evening work is I can't play jazz records, as the kid's room is right next to the home office.
Headphones can help with that.
I'm a night owl, and I was more productive in the evening after the kid went to sleep. The only disadvantage of evening work is I can't play jazz records, as the kid's room is right next to the home office.
Headphones can help with that.
These are good:
https://www.walmart.ca/en/ip/Kids-Ear-Protection-Safety-Ear-Muffs-NRR-25dB-Noise-Reduction-Hearing-Protection-Kids-Toddler-Ear-Protection-Shooting-Range-Hunting-Season-Kids-Toddl/PRD2F80BINDM79J (https://www.walmart.ca/en/ip/Kids-Ear-Protection-Safety-Ear-Muffs-NRR-25dB-Noise-Reduction-Hearing-Protection-Kids-Toddler-Ear-Protection-Shooting-Range-Hunting-Season-Kids-Toddl/PRD2F80BINDM79J)
You need to use gaffa tape/duct tape to secure it to the kids head. But yeah. Enjoy your Jazz.
There's nothing beneficial about a 3rd party buying up large quantities of parts which are in short supply, only to sell them on to companies who need them at a significant mark-up. Nobody is better off than they would have been otherwise, apart from the scalper.
I'm guessing you've not spent the last month or so trawling every corner of the market trying to put together the kit for a product on which your livelihood depends.
The supply situation is "irritating" just like losing a hand in a table saw is "itchy".
I disagree with this; this actually helps prevent shortages by throttling the price to match demand. Those who really need them, can get them. Otherwise no one can get them. However irritating, it does serve a purpose.
Nice theory, but I don't buy it. The reason I disagree is, I believe this increases loss. The gray market vendors buy more parts than they can sell. They need to guess which parts to stockpile, and when. Then, when the actual crisis hits, some desperate companies may buy from them, but most will just do whatever they can to avoid that - i.e., redesign.
A usual assumption in this discussion is that the fabrication capacity is down from pre-plague years, some of which is due to fire or other damage to existing fabs.Capacity should be significantly up on its pre-COVID level. AKM had a fire, depriving the industry of some of the best audio converters, but the shortages mostly relate to demand.
Does anyone have quantitative figures for the capacity reduction?
This is what I do every single day, sadly.
The speculators can't be blamed for the shortage. They are a minor factor, if that. If they didn't buy them up, someone would have been hoarding them anyway, and they wouldn't be available at any price.
:palm: I'd rather take delivery times of important
components like 0.1 uF Cs, for example, as the indicator.
GPU prices as a leading indicator for semiconductors?
I am not a gamer and I update my PC very rarely so I don't follow any of those PC enthusiast channels on youtube but they occasionally show up as recommended in my feed. I noticed a few have started mentioning GPU prices and availability are improving. Search youtube "gpu prices falling" on JayZ and similar. Is this a side effect of something happening in the crypto world or can it be used as a leading indicator for the chip-a-geddon shortage? In the commodity markets I pay attention to the trendline of "Dr. copper" to anticipate the market.
GPUs come off of the high end TSMC fabs and graphics cards also have memory and power bus components.
What sayeth the EEVBLOG forum braintrust?
GPUs come off of the high end TSMC fabs and graphics cards also have memory and power bus components.
What sayeth the EEVBLOG forum braintrust?
A point to note is even if you have two parts produced at different fabs, designed at the same geometry, for the same wafer size, they will still rarely be portable between those fabs, for a variety of reasons. If you develop a part that turns out to be a huge success, arranging that you can run it at additional fabs to scale your output is usually a substantial amount of work.GPUs come off of the high end TSMC fabs and graphics cards also have memory and power bus components.
What sayeth the EEVBLOG forum braintrust?
The thing to keep in mind is that semiconductors are, to a significant extent, non-fungible. There are probably only one or two fab lines in the world that ONSemi has qualified to produce your particular MOSFET, and none of them are in common with anything nVidia or AMD sells. All that means is the odds a relaxation in demand for one part used on a graphics card will bring forward the production schedule the specific parts you need are low.
:palm: I'd rather take delivery times of important
components like 0.1 uF Cs, for example, as the indicator.
A usual assumption in this discussion is that the fabrication capacity is down from pre-plague years, some of which is due to fire or other damage to existing fabs.
Does anyone have quantitative figures for the capacity reduction?
Likely these are available in large numbers because there are no chips available to use them with :box::palm: I'd rather take delivery times of important
components like 0.1 uF Cs, for example, as the indicator.
You have found an indicator that there are no shortages. :-+
Just looking at DigiKey, they have over 800 million stock of 0.1 uF ceramic chip capacitors in 0201, 0402 or 0603 case, with nearly all of their normal SKUs in stock (~90%).
Likely these are available in large numbers because there are no chips available to use them with :box::palm: I'd rather take delivery times of important
components like 0.1 uF Cs, for example, as the indicator.
You have found an indicator that there are no shortages. :-+
Just looking at DigiKey, they have over 800 million stock of 0.1 uF ceramic chip capacitors in 0201, 0402 or 0603 case, with nearly all of their normal SKUs in stock (~90%).
Likely these are available in large numbers because there are no chips available to use them with :box::palm: I'd rather take delivery times of important
components like 0.1 uF Cs, for example, as the indicator.
You have found an indicator that there are no shortages. :-+
Just looking at DigiKey, they have over 800 million stock of 0.1 uF ceramic chip capacitors in 0201, 0402 or 0603 case, with nearly all of their normal SKUs in stock (~90%).
Seems, I've suffered a bit of a brain fart. :palm: Sorry.
GPUs come off of the high end TSMC fabs and graphics cards also have memory and power bus components.
What sayeth the EEVBLOG forum braintrust?
The thing to keep in mind is that semiconductors are, to a significant extent, non-fungible. There are probably only one or two fab lines in the world that ONSemi has qualified to produce your particular MOSFET, and none of them are in common with anything nVidia or AMD sells. All that means is the odds a relaxation in demand for one part used on a graphics card will bring forward the production schedule the specific parts you need are low.
There are plenty of components for which the relentless drive to newer, finer geometry parts really doesn't exist, though.As you say, a large amount of analogue stuff just doesn't scale, but the issue it broader than that. You have an ultra low power digital device you want to shrink? How are you going to do that when the ultra fine processes leak like a sieve? Most really ultra low power applications spend a lot of their time idling, waiting for the next burst of activity to be triggered. The run current is less significant than the leakage during the idle periods. You have a relatively simple digital device with a lot of I/O pins it controls? How are you going to shrink that when the I/O pad ring limits the die area? People are using multiple rows of pads in the I/O ring now, but pad limiting is a major issue for many things as they shrink.
For example, a linear voltage regulator is what it is; chances are that the device in your existing design gets warm at a rate determined entirely by the voltage drop and current, and dissipates that heat through a package that's governed by geometry and the thermal conductivity of copper. It's essentially 'problem solved', there's no benefit to be had by redesigning a product to use a newer one, and a smaller die certainly isn't inherently 'better'.
The same might be said of many other components; once a design is proven, swapping to, say, a newer op-amp doesn't represent an opportunity to improve the product, it represents the need to re-test and qualify something already known to work. A change (even to a 'better' part) is almost entirely a burden for the manufacturer, not a benefit.
These parts might not be exciting or high value, but almost every design needs them. And so what if your CPU has been replaced by a new one that's half the die area, and as a result, fractionally cheaper? You've still got to redesign the board to use it, and fingers crossed you can get the other parts that it needs in order to be useful.
Who wants to be an EE right now?
Who wants to be an EE right now?Well it does force you to open up the book of tricks and creativity, as well as dusting off those old 70s,80s and 90s books about discrete circuits.
Who wants to be an EE right now?
You have a relatively simple digital device with a lot of I/O pins it controls? How are you going to shrink that when the I/O pad ring limits the die area? People are using multiple rows of pads in the I/O ring now, but pad limiting is a major issue for many things as they shrink.We went 3D to shrink transistors... maybe we need to think outside the box for high pin count devices too. I wonder if we could put pads on both sides of the die, and build a "via" on each layer on the way up. Yeah, call me crazy, but fab technology has successfully done some crazy sounding stuff in the past.
[...] Simple transistors are still available.I'm not talking about hobby projects, and actually looking at discretes you can see no stock from many usual manufacturers. They are disrupted as well but not to the point of unobtainium.
I wasn't either.[...] Simple transistors are still available.I'm not talking about hobby projects,
Actually I have a lot of work on right now, business is booming. The ability to redesign products to use parts that do happen to be available is a skill that's in high demand, so it's really not a bad time to be an EE at all.
That's true in the near to medium term. Long term, of course, if parts continue to be unavailable, my customers will inevitably suffer.
It's ugly with chipmakers playing favorites.
Thousands Of ‘Unfinished’ Ford Bronco Pile Up, Can’t Be Delivered Due To Chip Shortage (https://autojosh.com/thousands-of-unfinished-ford-bronco-pile-up-cant-be-delivered-due-to-chip-shortage)
Ford's approach is to keep building and advise customers "just 3 more months"... which is nothing in semiconductor fab times.
God forbid they could not get those Broncos.. ha ha.. Pickup trucks tend to be a very fuel inefficient kind of vehicle..It's ugly with chipmakers playing favorites.
Thousands Of ‘Unfinished’ Ford Bronco Pile Up, Can’t Be Delivered Due To Chip Shortage (https://autojosh.com/thousands-of-unfinished-ford-bronco-pile-up-cant-be-delivered-due-to-chip-shortage)
Ford's approach is to keep building and advise customers "just 3 more months"... which is nothing in semiconductor fab times.
Automotive electronics manufacturers I know are dealing direct with NXP, Infineon etc. and not through any distributors, parts have been ordered 2 years in advance. They can remain operational albeit at reduced volumes.
In that case, who is using up all the chips? [...]
But why would a car manufacturer let cars pile up with pieces missing? Knowing Ford, they would sell cars without doors if they had to. [...]If a module is "coming in soon", it makes sense to keep production rolling and fill up the parking lot... but after you fill up Dirt Mountain with a 3 month queue, that looks like a scary strategy. Other cars lost Park Assist, heated seat climate controls etc. It seems like (BCM) modules are being built minus some IC's.
But why would a car manufacturer let cars pile up with pieces missing? Knowing Ford, they would sell cars without doors if they had to. There must be a regulatory reason they can't let these cars onto the road.I've seen video of Fords being made, driven into the storage area, and the engine control unit then being removed to put in the next vehicle, so it can get off the line. So, engine control is one area them seem to lack parts, and that's pretty fundamental. Many car makers are not offering certain bells and whistles on their cars right now, but if they can't get core things like the engine control module they clearly can't ship any cars.
For how long can an essentially finished car that is standing around somewhere without an ECU, be actually considered, and more importantly sold, as "new"?
I'm guessing you've not spent the last month or so trawling every corner of the market trying to put together the kit for a product on which your livelihood depends.
This is what I do every single day, sadly.QuoteThe supply situation is "irritating" just like losing a hand in a table saw is "itchy".
The irritation I was referring to isn't the "supply situation", that's incredibly frustrating and a huge time and money sink. The "irritation" is at the speculators. The speculators can't be blamed for the shortage. They are a minor factor, if that. If they didn't buy them up, someone would have been hoarding them anyway, and they wouldn't be available at any price.
But why would a car manufacturer let cars pile up with pieces missing? Knowing Ford, they would sell cars without doors if they had to. There must be a regulatory reason they can't let these cars onto the road.
It has to be simple hoarding by somebody. But who? I reckon the phone makers and medium size industrials are hoarding it. The car makers are powerful but got caught out because they ran a too-tight supply pipeline and always working on the principle that f*****g their suppliers will always be possible.
For how long can an essentially finished car that is standing around somewhere without an ECU, be actually considered, and more importantly sold, as "new"?
Is there any precedence for something like this?
For how long can an essentially finished car that is standing around somewhere without an ECU, be actually considered, and more importantly sold, as "new"?
The Bronco problems - hardtop roof delaminating, leaks, rattles, Ford replacing all of the moulded ones, then the Ver 2.0 replacement also leaking... body gaps causing A-pillar and windshield leaking... It might be good to have them lemonizing in the parking lot I guess.
Ford appears to be back to their old ways of making not so great vehicles. Their stock is getting punished with billions in warranty claims, recalls, and the plummeting sales figures.
I guess it's worse now that Tesla introduced this "pre-ordering" norm and the pressure to slap a car together and ship it out, is so high. Everyone is scrambling and when rushed it does for more make mistakes.
i was looking this afternoon for an Atmega. ANY popular atmega .. Digikey : NONE ! ZERO. Apart from some crufty dil packages from some dubious supplier.... and that too at 11$ a pop ... holy smokes. for something with 16k of flash. 11$ !A customer of ours has an ATMEGA based design and it just took them two months to find a suitable alternative part because everything is out of stock. The replacement still requires a package change and a bit of firmware tweaking. I had suggested they switch to one of the PIC parts that we keep in stock (and have forward orders for over the next 18 months) but because they are writing code in Arduino this wasn't an option.
i was looking this afternoon for an Atmega. ANY popular atmega .. Digikey : NONE ! ZERO. Apart from some crufty dil packages from some dubious supplier.... and that too at 11$ a pop ... holy smokes. for something with 16k of flash. 11$ !
Delivery date for Husq Automower 405 changed from mid May to unknown, because of component availability probs.
Luckily it is a non-essential item. Things could be worse.
How could they be worse? Inflation is out of control, we've got a war going on trashing commodities/energy supplies and covid shutdowns in Shanghai at week 7. Next winter you will be quite cold.
The supply chain really is upside down and under more stress, those effects I don't think have caught up to us yet.
That $1,800 lawnmower it could be anything from lithium batteries, power mosfets, MCU etc it takes only one part outage to stop production. Semi lead-times are over a year.
A long term shortage would wipe out smaller businesses.
It's amazing that with >100 years of experience building cars, Ford can still make n00b mistakes. (I own 2 Fords, I like them! - but I wouldn't buy a Bronco for a while...)
I remember arguments like that in the 70s in the UK. Then suddenly inflation was 30%, and people were still trying to claim it wasn't out of control. Now we look back to a 1000 pound salary from 1970, and wonder how anyone could live on that. They could. It was a liveable wage at that time. By the end of the 70s you needed 5000 to live as well.How could they be worse? Inflation is out of control, we've got a war going on trashing commodities/energy supplies and covid shutdowns in Shanghai at week 7. Next winter you will be quite cold.
The supply chain really is upside down and under more stress, those effects I don't think have caught up to us yet.
That $1,800 lawnmower it could be anything from lithium batteries, power mosfets, MCU etc it takes only one part outage to stop production. Semi lead-times are over a year.
A long term shortage would wipe out smaller businesses.
Inflation is hardly out of control. It's 8% over the year, which is about 2.5x what it should be. To quote Chernobyl, not great, not terrible.
Out of control would be 8% in any given month. Also while shortage of Russian gas may affect parts of Europe it will not affect the US, Canada, the UK or many European countries in fact.
i was looking this afternoon for an Atmega. ANY popular atmega .. Digikey : NONE ! ZERO. Apart from some crufty dil packages from some dubious supplier.... and that too at 11$ a pop ... holy smokes. for something with 16k of flash. 11$ !
Bizarrely at the moment STmicros evaluation boards for high side switches are cheaper ( by 30% ) then the part itself. I see some desoldering in my future
I remember arguments like that in the 70s in the UK. Then suddenly inflation was 30%, and people were still trying to claim it wasn't out of control. Now we look back to a 1000 pound salary from 1970, and wonder how anyone could live on that. They could. It was a liveable wage at that time. By the end of the 70s you needed 5000 to live as well.How could they be worse? Inflation is out of control, we've got a war going on trashing commodities/energy supplies and covid shutdowns in Shanghai at week 7. Next winter you will be quite cold.
The supply chain really is upside down and under more stress, those effects I don't think have caught up to us yet.
That $1,800 lawnmower it could be anything from lithium batteries, power mosfets, MCU etc it takes only one part outage to stop production. Semi lead-times are over a year.
A long term shortage would wipe out smaller businesses.
Inflation is hardly out of control. It's 8% over the year, which is about 2.5x what it should be. To quote Chernobyl, not great, not terrible.
Out of control would be 8% in any given month. Also while shortage of Russian gas may affect parts of Europe it will not affect the US, Canada, the UK or many European countries in fact.
read this : https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/21/asm_ceo_industrial_conglomerate_buying/ (https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/21/asm_ceo_industrial_conglomerate_buying/)
now they are buying washing machines to strip them for parts ...
Official inflation numbers (https://tradingeconomics.com/countries) are always a joke. My household expenses for groceries, gasoline, natural gas, electricity - just the basics y-o-y are up 30%, some have doubled. How about wages, are they up?
Real-life inflation (so daily expenses) in at least a large part of the western world is now around 20% to 30% indeed. I second floobydust for my case, it's jumped between +20% to +30%.
And apparently, it's just the beginning?
Real-life inflation (so daily expenses) in at least a large part of the western world is now around 20% to 30% indeed. I second floobydust for my case, it's jumped between +20% to +30%.As I've said before...
I remember arguments like that in the 70s in the UK. Then suddenly inflation was 30%, and people were still trying to claim it wasn't out of control. Now we look back to a 1000 pound salary from 1970, and wonder how anyone could live on that. They could. It was a liveable wage at that time. By the end of the 70s you needed 5000 to live as well.
I have no strong reason to doubt that for the particular set of figures they measure inflation with the rate may well be 7% or so. What made you thing I doubted them? The thing is when inflation jumps it has a habit of not stopping at 8%. That blip in 1991 on the ONS graph was a government induced surge, resulting from utter government stupidity, that was a one off event. It crashed the economy so badly it rapidly drove all the inflation out of the system. I, and a lot of other engineers, left the UK at that point.I remember arguments like that in the 70s in the UK. Then suddenly inflation was 30%, and people were still trying to claim it wasn't out of control. Now we look back to a 1000 pound salary from 1970, and wonder how anyone could live on that. They could. It was a liveable wage at that time. By the end of the 70s you needed 5000 to live as well.
So, what's the real rate of inflation? Where do you get this data from?
According to the ONS, who are arms-length independent from the UK government, it's around 6%.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23)
But pray tell me the actual inflation rate, with sources, please...
I remember arguments like that in the 70s in the UK. Then suddenly inflation was 30%, and people were still trying to claim it wasn't out of control. Now we look back to a 1000 pound salary from 1970, and wonder how anyone could live on that. They could. It was a liveable wage at that time. By the end of the 70s you needed 5000 to live as well.
So, what's the real rate of inflation? Where do you get this data from?
According to the ONS, who are arms-length independent from the UK government, it's around 6%.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23)
But pray tell me the actual inflation rate, with sources, please...
I have no strong reason to doubt that for the particular set of figures they measure inflation with the rate may well be 7% or so. What made you thing I doubted them? The thing is when inflation jumps it has a habit of not stopping at 8%. That blip in 1991 on the ONS graph was a government induced surge, resulting from utter government stupidity, that was a one off event. It crashed the economy so badly it rapidly drove all the inflation out of the system. I, and a lot of other engineers, left the UK at that point.
[...]
What I don't know is the proper response for "the little people" like me and (I presume) most of the participants here. If you know inflation is getting worse, holding currency is obviously the wrong way to protect your wealth. But what hard assets are a good alternative? Real estate is obviously in a huge bubble so "buying at the peak" is an awful way to preserve your asset base. Just play the stock and bond market? Buy up canned goods and ammunition? I really don't know. But what I do suspect is that what we're seeing here is a long overdue reaction/correction to an economically unwarranted flood of fresh dollars into the economy. Unless they pull those dollars back out of the economy, the market will revalue each individual dollar to compensate.
I remember arguments like that in the 70s in the UK. Then suddenly inflation was 30%, and people were still trying to claim it wasn't out of control. Now we look back to a 1000 pound salary from 1970, and wonder how anyone could live on that. They could. It was a liveable wage at that time. By the end of the 70s you needed 5000 to live as well.
So, what's the real rate of inflation? Where do you get this data from?
According to the ONS, who are arms-length independent from the UK government, it's around 6%.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23)
But pray tell me the actual inflation rate, with sources, please...
There is no actual inflation rate. It is different for every person. People who drink apple juice will experience different inflation than people who drink orange juice. CP-lie expects people to choose which-ever juice is cheapest.
Inflation benefits people who's income comes from assets and hurts people who's income comes from employment.
Economists who create the mechanisms to control and measure inflation are often in the prior category and voters are often in the latter category. This creates an incentive for inflation to be under-reported.
Regarding my post #980 on the TI part, I’ve seen their inventory go up and down and then up again dramatically today.We used to buy reels straight from TI.com. But last time they sent us a notification that "your part is back in stock!", we tried to buy a reel and they were limiting quantities to 50 pieces.
Britons are vastly underestimating the cost of healthcare in the futrure.. And since they sell health insurance, there wont be any way to go on having a NHS alongside it.It's fascinating to watch the disconnect of the people in the USA who point at the UK system as the "ideal end goal". They must not read the British press nor speak to anyone living there.
Might be a good time to start selling sweaters and tea. I think those could become popular as heating costs increase.If all the gloom and doom comes to pass, I suspect lower latitudes will become even more popular. Beyond about 45 degrees north or south latitude artificial heating is not a luxury, it's a requirement for several months of each year. Air conditioning is a relatively recent invention, humans survived for a very long time without the ability to artificially chill their living spaces. Avoiding extreme cold is much more important than avoiding extreme heat.
We used to buy reels straight from TI.com. But last time they sent us a notification that "your part is back in stock!", we tried to buy a reel and they were limiting quantities to 50 pieces.
FIFTY PIECES?!? C'mon, if you usually buy reels 50 pieces ain't gonna cut it. They had plenty of stock, but they wouldn't sell you any sort of reasonable quantity.
It's fascinating to watch the disconnect of the people in the USA who point at the UK system as the "ideal end goal". They must not read the British press nor speak to anyone living there.
Health care is an oddity. For most things in life competition is the key thing that effectively drives the quality and value of products and services. However, most people don't want health care. They want to be well. Only people with serious mental issues want more health care than is necessary. There isn't even strong evidence that smoking, obesity, lack of exercise and other self abuse is significantly affected by their expected health outcomes. Much of the most costly and complex health care we need is stuff we need suddenly - accidents, heart attacked, pandemics, etc. - when we aren't in a position to shop around for a good deal. Its a terrible fit for any competition based model. The NHS isn't perfect, but no system where competition is not driving excellence will ever be. Is it better than most of the alternatives? International comparisons seem to indicate it does pretty well. Do people complain? Always and forever, about everything.It's fascinating to watch the disconnect of the people in the USA who point at the UK system as the "ideal end goal". They must not read the British press nor speak to anyone living there.
The NHS is not perfect, but your opinion of the British people's opinion is, unfortunately, wrong:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/public-satisfaction-nhs-social-care-2019 (https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/public-satisfaction-nhs-social-care-2019)
It enjoys broad support, the problem as ever with any government organisation is that it is a beast that requires constant investment, beyond that of normal inflationary growth, and constant investment makes chancellors nervous.
I have noticed over a period of time that Microchip on some of their parts are only stocking the extended temperature range versions.I've noticed that, and also they often have the automotive-qualified parts but nothing "lesser". They're undoubtedly the exact same dies, just with better inspection. Wider temperature ranges and/or industry qualifications are a superset of standard parts so if they have limited die quantities it seems smart of them to qualify them as high as possible. That way the limited supply can serve in any capacity, with the impact that those only needing "lesser" grades can pay a premium and at least have parts. We have done that several times already - purchased a higher graded part than we actually require because it was the only thing available.
Two words - Priority customers.
[...]
Adafruit grumbling about trying to get some Bosch sensor+MCU and I wasn't sure how to take it, because Bosch is all about their automotive customers and no one else, they've always been snobs. The new Dresden "fab" (https://www.bosch-presse.de/pressportal/de/en/bosch-opens-chip-factory-of-the-future-in-dresden-228800.html) is apparently up 7/2021 and running for a while now.
We should do a video of trying to phone Mr. Big there and beg for parts, that would be funny. "Who are you again?" "How many parts you want?" CLICK.
This is a bit cringe worthy IMHO but I thought selecting allocation and priority customers, big corps need to stop using greed as their criteria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGjQcPUfBdM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGjQcPUfBdM)
I've had a hell of a time getting IMUs. The latest one popped up on LCSC after I spent months looking. Decent price and shipped quickly. Havent tested them yet. It was labelled as altitude sensor. Gives me a feeling drones are causing an increase in demand for them. And phones and lots of other stuff of course.That's been our most difficult part as well. Not sure it's drones, though. The drone flight controllers that I've worked on haven't used the IMU's that we can't find. Something else is consuming them too. Phones and tablets are part of it, I'm sure. Another HUGE part of it is that IMU's have some of the shortest lifespans in the industry. While most chips remain in production for years, even decades, I've seen multiple IMU's go from first samples to EOL in 24 months. No idea why. But doing that plays havoc with the supply chain because there's never enough parts in the pipeline and then it only gets worse when the latest part is declared NFFD. I'd really like to know why they cycle IMU's so frequently.
Raytheon is working with the US Department of Defense, which has not purchased a Stinger for 18 years, on resourcing materials.
I've had a hell of a time getting IMUs. The latest one popped up on LCSC after I spent months looking. Decent price and shipped quickly. Havent tested them yet. It was labelled as altitude sensor. Gives me a feeling drones are causing an increase in demand for them. And phones and lots of other stuff of course.That's been our most difficult part as well. Not sure it's drones, though. The drone flight controllers that I've worked on haven't used the IMU's that we can't find. Something else is consuming them too. Phones and tablets are part of it, I'm sure. Another HUGE part of it is that IMU's have some of the shortest lifespans in the industry. While most chips remain in production for years, even decades, I've seen multiple IMU's go from first samples to EOL in 24 months. No idea why. But doing that plays havoc with the supply chain because there's never enough parts in the pipeline and then it only gets worse when the latest part is declared NFFD. I'd really like to know why they cycle IMU's so frequently.
Coming up next on The Onion: "Raytheon products found non-RoHS compliant, banned from European battlefields." :)OMG that's the best comment on here in a long time!
Coming up next on The Onion: "Raytheon products found non-RoHS compliant, banned from European battlefields." :)
I may live to regret saying this, but for the first time in a couple of years I haven't had to go out to brokers to fulfil a BOM.
Yesterday I gritted my teeth with one remaining part which wasn't available from usual distributers, and reluctantly placed an order with serial bait & switch rip off merchants Win-Source.
Then today that part's suddenly appeared on TI inventory. So, when Win-source finally deign to respond to me in a week's time with their usual bullsh!t that the part advertised at $2.50 is now $8, I'll be more than delighted to tell them to go **** themselves.
Dear Howard,
Sincerely thanks for your order online.
We are sorry to inform you that the price of the parts you ordered has to be adjusted due to market fluctuations.
To avoid your supply chain disruptions, the refund request of payment has been submitted. It might take 3-5 business days for the payment to refund but I will get back to you ASAP.
Please also kindly confirm the following updated details for your reference if you are interested.
Part Number Order Pirce Updated Price Quantity Total difference of the Amount
TLV320AIC3204IRHBR $2.509 $3.28 400pcs $308.4
As the risk warning displayed on the order page, under the special circumstances of recent electronic components, we are also troubled by the shortage of components and the chaos of the market.
We are very unwilling to increase the price if there is no threat on the markets. Regarding to the price changes, we always try our best to negotiate with our supplier, strive for the lowest price to minimize the procurement costs and ensure the safety and stability of customer supply chains.
We would always suggest our customers hold the order first and pay close attention to price changes in the near future, if the components are not urgent for production or circulation.
Please allow us to send you an order invoice of the difference amount if you could accept the updates.
Or
Please be patient for the full refund if the price exceeds your purchase budget.
Further discussion please feel free to contact me. Thank you.
Best Regards,
I may live to regret saying this, but for the first time in a couple of years I haven't had to go out to brokers to fulfil a BOM.
Yesterday I gritted my teeth with one remaining part which wasn't available from usual distributers, and reluctantly placed an order with serial bait & switch rip off merchants Win-Source.
Then today that part's suddenly appeared on TI inventory. So, when Win-source finally deign to respond to me in a week's time with their usual bullsh!t that the part advertised at $2.50 is now $8, I'll be more than delighted to tell them to go **** themselves.
And, as if by magic:QuoteDear Howard,
Sincerely thanks for your order online.
We are sorry to inform you that the price of the parts you ordered has to be adjusted due to market fluctuations.
To avoid your supply chain disruptions, the refund request of payment has been submitted. It might take 3-5 business days for the payment to refund but I will get back to you ASAP.
Please also kindly confirm the following updated details for your reference if you are interested.
Part Number Order Pirce Updated Price Quantity Total difference of the Amount
TLV320AIC3204IRHBR $2.509 $3.28 400pcs $308.4
As the risk warning displayed on the order page, under the special circumstances of recent electronic components, we are also troubled by the shortage of components and the chaos of the market.
We are very unwilling to increase the price if there is no threat on the markets. Regarding to the price changes, we always try our best to negotiate with our supplier, strive for the lowest price to minimize the procurement costs and ensure the safety and stability of customer supply chains.
We would always suggest our customers hold the order first and pay close attention to price changes in the near future, if the components are not urgent for production or circulation.
Please allow us to send you an order invoice of the difference amount if you could accept the updates.
Or
Please be patient for the full refund if the price exceeds your purchase budget.
Further discussion please feel free to contact me. Thank you.
Best Regards,
Hello xxxxxxxx.
No, I don’t appreciate this nonsense. Every single time Win-source increase the advertised price. I think this must be the sixth time you’ve done this to me.
Cancel the order and immediately refund.
You’re not a trustworthy company to deal with.
Be aware that I document your unethical and fraudulent business practices on eevblog for other engineers to be aware as a result.
Thank you, Howard
She came up with some bizarre excuses and nonsense, including that she didn't realise I'd dealt with them before, although I couldn't work out what difference that made.Well, we know what difference it makes :-DD
Is it ethical to responsibly employ gaslighting etc. to those who would otherwise gaslight you?One way to view it: This vendor was seeking to commit an unethical act. The buyer's actions restored things to neutral. No one was physically harmed and an existing contract (defined as "offer and acceptance") was completed under the original terms agreed to by both parties.
Recently we ordered some edge SMA female connectors for PCB use, the seller shipped male SMA connectors instead. Admit we didn't take a lot of time placing the order (my bad) but did purchase a Female SMA per the description in the listing, however the image shows a male pin SMA not a female.
What's really frustrating:
- Ordering PICs from Microchip Direct for $2.50 each (300 qty)
- Deciding that our current stocks weren't going to make it to Microchip's indicated ship date of August so ordering a quantity from Aliexpress at $10 each.
- A few days later we receive a notification from Microchip that the parts have shipped
>:(
I loathe having to deal with brokers (and simply refuse to deal with the scum at Win-source) but sometimes we just have no alternative.
Email spam from today: "Purchasing on TI.com has never been more convenient"...where "purchasing" is defined as "giving us your money" but no mention is made about delivering physical products in the other direction.
Email spam from today: "Purchasing on TI.com has never been more convenient"In general TI's way of doing has pissed me off the last couple of years, it's going down hill VERY rapidly.
Boy does this piss me off.
Guess what, TI:
I don't care how convenient you consider your online store to be, not having parts OR LEADTIMES automatically makes it infinitely inconvenient.
Well it seems to go that way?
They know they are unpopular for not being able to deliver the goods.
No worries, as soon as a 2n3904 reaches $50 each, supplies will come back on stream... and the marketing departments are doing their job keeping us all hanging on until that happens!
Email spam from today: "Purchasing on TI.com has never been more convenient"Yeah, I mean whats more convenient than having to write bots to purchase your parts, because they are gone in one day?
Boy does this piss me off.
Guess what, TI:
I don't care how convenient you consider your online store to be, not having parts OR LEADTIMES automatically makes it infinitely inconvenient.
Literally told them we moved on to their competitor (Analog in this case)
For the first time in my life, I'm looking into AC power control via the classic diac/triac combination, and I had been assuming that these devices are simple enough and sufficiently jelly-bean that there'd be no problem getting hold of them. However, in the UK, the diacs, at least, seem to be pretty thin on the ground at both Farnell and RS, AFAICS.
Am I a victim of Chipageddon, or are these in short supply for some other reason?
For the first time in my life, I'm looking into AC power control via the classic diac/triac combination, and I had been assuming that these devices are simple enough and sufficiently jelly-bean that there'd be no problem getting hold of them. However, in the UK, the diacs, at least, seem to be pretty thin on the ground at both Farnell and RS, AFAICS.
Am I a victim of Chipageddon, or are these in short supply for some other reason?
Spent a bit too much time looking for a specific part, finally scratching up a paltry handful from Hong Kong off ebay.. only to find a healthy supply an industrial variant a few days later, listed under a completely different part number scheme, hinted at by some obscure marketing document.
Anyone know of a site that may offer related parts lookup? Digikey has basic functions but missed reccomending this fully pin-compatible variant. Datasheets often don't list current replacements or variants for an obsoleted part.
Email spam from today: "Purchasing on TI.com has never been more convenient"
Boy does this piss me off.
Guess what, TI:
I don't care how convenient you consider your online store to be, not having parts OR LEADTIMES automatically makes it infinitely inconvenient.
i would say it's just the fact that diacs are slowly going into oblivion...Are they? I had no idea. Why is that?
My son is presently pursuing his EE degree at CalPoly, and they're only accepting 5% of freshmen applicants, so I take that as an indication of young people entering the field.Most people apply to multiple schools. Some apply to many. A good school gets way more applicants than a weak one. So, accepting only 5% at a decent college might say very little about a subject's popularity. It probably says the college is well regarded, though.
There are plenty of young engineers. I wonder if they will catch up with the greybeards retiring, but salaries are high so I guess we'll see.That might be a parochial view. In the UK there is a very low demand for engineers these days, so the available engineers look like "plenty". However, statistics for the UK say the average age of most types of engineers is climbing steadily. So, there might be sufficient engineers joining industry, but its not that many. If you look at other countries with strong engineering industries the picture looks different. In China they graduate huge numbers of engineers each year, and you still struggle to find a good one.
DIACs used to be commonly used in Royer oscillators as featured in compact fluro lamps. Those are almost entirely a dead technology now (I believe some are still produced as photography lights but even that may be changing) and so there will be much less demand for them.The other common use, in leading-edge triac dimmers is also dying out, as LEDs prefer trailing-edge dimming.
All these people complaining about TI are acting like there are other better options. It's not like other manufacturers are any easier to source/deal with at the moment and as pointed out by one poster, at least they're not giving fictitious lead times.
Right now the class-leading components in several areas come from TI. It's a real problem for high-performance designs.That's what I mean - either there are no alternatives OR compatible parts from other manufacturers are in just as short supply.
There are plenty of young engineers. I wonder if they will catch up with the greybeards retiring, but salaries are high so I guess we'll see.
A 30-ish MSEE friend just accepted an offer for a 100% work from home FPGA design position. $200K annually, $170K signing bonus, plus stock options. This is with a decent sized tech company we've all heard of. The signing bonus will pay off his house. I consider that a very nice package for a guy at that point in his career.
A 30-ish MSEE friend just accepted an offer for a 100% work from home FPGA design position. $200K annually, $170K signing bonus, plus stock options. This is with a decent sized tech company we've all heard of. The signing bonus will pay off his house. I consider that a very nice package for a guy at that point in his career.Jeez, for most engineers here in Europe that's something that only exists in dreams.
There is an old time saying, that you do engineering because you love it, not because it pays well. :(Its that kind of mentality that keeps your salary down. How about an attitude like you can be so cost effective that it isn't worth your time considering low paid work?
Good luck with that against employersThere is an old time saying, that you do engineering because you love it, not because it pays well. :(Its that kind of mentality that keeps your salary down. How about an attitude like you can be so cost effective that it isn't worth your time considering low paid work?
I should add that he had multiple offers from several large firms, including one from Microsoft for using FPGA's to hardware accelerate their backend searches. He chose the one that best suited his lifestyle, but it wasn't a one-off nor unique. He left several other positions unfilled when he picked this one.
The positions are out there. You just have to start looking for those that match your skill set.
There are employers who want blood from a stone, and employers who pay according to what they can get from you. If you can drive cost out of a product better than the next engineer, or hit a sweet spot where your work gets a really good chunk of the market, only deadbeat companies won't pay for those results. Many of the companies who pay too much die quickly. Equally those who don't pay enough don't do well. The successful are usually paying pretty well for the right people, and not paying that great for the rest. The question is are you the right person, and can they be convinced you are. Note that its pretty hard to find high pay in most small niches. If you want a high income it needs to be spreadable across a large number of sales, or those sales need to be super high value.Good luck with that against employersThere is an old time saying, that you do engineering because you love it, not because it pays well. :(Its that kind of mentality that keeps your salary down. How about an attitude like you can be so cost effective that it isn't worth your time considering low paid work?
Doesn't have anything to do with mentality.
Most just use a set salary bracket, with a max of around 4500-5000 euro per month before tax
As for 30 years olds, count on around 2800-3500 euro a month full time.
The exceptions are indeed FPGA designers and obviously ICT
Where are salaries high? What is a high salary? High compared to other industries or high for the cost of living and schooling?
If I were to start over now, I'd go for a trade, probably carpentry. The shortage of homes in Canada seems to be a bigger problem than chipageddon.
[...]
Western companies and consumers are like lemmings falling over the cliff. Lessons learnt? I doubt it.
[...]
Western companies and consumers are like lemmings falling over the cliff. Lessons learnt? I doubt it.
Maybe we just don't like working hard for low wages? - but I guess given the current climate, we may end up doing that anyway...
https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/ (https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/)Good luck with that against employersThere is an old time saying, that you do engineering because you love it, not because it pays well. :(Its that kind of mentality that keeps your salary down. How about an attitude like you can be so cost effective that it isn't worth your time considering low paid work?
Doesn't have anything to do with mentality.
Most just use a set salary bracket, with a max of around 4500-5000 euro per month before tax
As for 30 years olds, count on around 2800-3500 euro a month full time.
The exceptions are indeed FPGA designers and obviously ICT
As for 30 years olds, count on around 2800-3500 euro a month full time.
Listing salaries before tax is a common practice. You can't know any individual's personal tax situation. For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year.
Complex tax payment arrangements are a feature, not a bug. They serve to obscure the real picture, at the minor cost of a massive useless bureaucracy to administer the whole mess.Listing salaries before tax is a common practice. You can't know any individual's personal tax situation. For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year.
then the papers here should quote 1600 not 3500 as the average montly salary, instead they prefer to be misleading by quoting also the part of salary you will never ever see as an employee
Listing salaries before tax is a common practice. You can't know any individual's personal tax situation. For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year.
then the papers here should quote 1600 not 3500 as the average montly salary, instead they prefer to be misleading by quoting also the part of salary you will never ever see as an employee
[...]
I don't know about the rest of the world, but in the USA I would expect to see gross salary listed, which of course is the number that doesn't include taxes and employee benefits like health insurance premiums.
Property taxes are a pretty fair way of doing taxation.Not sure I'd agree with that for a number of reasons, but that's a different discussion.
Also, if you don't pay your income taxes, or pretty much any other tax, the IRS can seize your home too. So I'm not sure your argument is really that special.That's federal vs. state/local government. If the state/local government explicitly excludes home seizure as an option (which is the point I was making about the proposal in Idaho), that's a separate decision from what your elected officials at the federal level choose to impose upon you. We tend to get the government we deserve/allow, so if we find fault with that we should be electing different people. I note with alarm that the recidivism (um, "reelection") rate for federal politicians exceeds 90%, so we may be in the minority who actually care.
.. but in this case I got a mail from MOUSER telling that the chip production is completed, and expected delivery time will be 9 June.
Still the MOUSER website says 63 weeks... but I have confirmation that they know for weeks that the actual lead time is about 6 weeks!
.. but in this case I got a mail from MOUSER telling that the chip production is completed, and expected delivery time will be 9 June.
Still the MOUSER website says 63 weeks... but I have confirmation that they know for weeks that the actual lead time is about 6 weeks!
They're not delivered until you're holding them. The parts might well have been manufactured and a delivery date worked out, but you still might not get them within 63 weeks :)
A national sales tax - essentially a 'VAT' like we have in the UK is not a terrible idea, but I think you would need a lot more than 17%. The UK's rate of VAT is 20% and it accounts for about 15-20% of our overall budgetary takings.You've been desensitised. UK VAT on most things was 8% for many years, and we used to bitch about that. :)
@IDEngineer
A national sales tax - essentially a 'VAT' like we have in the UK is not a terrible idea, but I think you would need a lot more than 17%. The UK's rate of VAT is 20% and it accounts for about 15-20% of our overall budgetary takings. [...]
That seems to imply just on the numbers alone that the tax would need to be close to 100%That obviously cannot be true. Taxation cannot be 100% of anyone's economy. So there's something wrong with the numbers. If you simply replace the existing system with an NST that is revenue-neutral (collects the same number of dollars) then we know for certain it cannot be 100% because it's not 100% today.
Increasing it much beyond 20% would punish poorer people who disproportionally spend money on goods compared to their incomeNo, the basics of life (food, shelter, medical) are exempt. The poor pay zero for the basics of life. As they, or anyone else, start climbing the economic ladder and have discretionary dollars to spend, only those discretionary dollars are taxed. In this way the truly poor bear no burden at all, and as you gain ground you participate commensurate with your proportion *above* poverty. Very fair, and automatically scales to remain fair.
you can eliminate the 200 million tax returns by having the taxation service work it out automatically from payrollYou're presuming everyone is an employee, and further presuming that all employees are "above the table" with proper reporting to the government. Neither of those things is true. On the wealthy end, lots of people have income that isn't payroll. On the poorer end lots of laborers, illegal immigrants, etc. are paid off-the-books with no paper trail at all. The NST completely eliminates dependency upon paperwork and reporting, and treats every single individual the same no matter rich or poor, legal or not, employee or self-employed, under or over the table - because everyone spends money. Tax at the point of retail sale and you get maximum efficiency and maximum fairness with zero individual paperwork, and you still have progressive taxation where the poor pay less/zero and the rich pay more. No other revenue system delivers all of those benefits.
That seems to imply just on the numbers alone that the tax would need to be close to 100%That obviously cannot be true. Taxation cannot be 100% of anyone's economy. So there's something wrong with the numbers.
My 17% figure comes from a detailed analysis a while back. I wish I still had the paperwork but have looked several times and cannot find it. But it was well detailed and I came way convinced that it was within range. Let's say 20% for some margin. That's the federal sales tax rate, to which state and local sales taxes would be added. Here that would total 26%. ALL other taxes are eliminated.
As to the "rich": Yes, investment dollars aren't taxed. But investment dollars, by definition, are poured back into the economy which generates economic activity that "lifts all boats". When rich people indulge themselves and buy something that is for their personal use, those dollars are taxed just like everyone else's. Fancy car = more tax. Private plane = more tax. Et cetera.
You're presuming everyone is an employee, and further presuming that all employees are "above the table" with proper reporting to the government. Neither of those things is true.
No, the much-maligned trickle-down theory is that if you make the rich richer, they will generously spread largess to the unwashed masses. This is different. Here, we're simply talking about normal life. Dollars can be coarsely divided into two categories: Those you spend to live another day, and those which are discretionary. By definition the poor have zero discretionary dollars because they are just surviving. The rich, on the other hand, presumably have lots of discretionary dollars. The question then becomes what the rich do with those discretionary dollars. If they spend them, in general it benefits only themselves so it's consumption and the NST should tax them. If they invest them, though, that's stimulating the broader economy (money for companies to make capital investments, hire more employees, expand factories, etc.). The NST presumes the latter benefits the "general welfare" and so should not be taxed since they are not for solely personal benefit.As to the "rich": Yes, investment dollars aren't taxed. But investment dollars, by definition, are poured back into the economy which generates economic activity that "lifts all boats". When rich people indulge themselves and buy something that is for their personal use, those dollars are taxed just like everyone else's. Fancy car = more tax. Private plane = more tax. Et cetera.Trickle down economics, you should know better.
That's true up to a point, though 'what the market will bear' depends on the price of competing products as much as any other factor.
If you're making a thing that people deem necessary (ie. there's relatively little elasticity in the price-demand relationship), then if your competitors all put up their prices 20%, so can you.
It's why price fixing cartels are illegal, of course, but if its not you that's increasing the price but instead it's a tax being applied, the end customer is still worse off.
Manipulating the market is of course a "Bad Thing" (TM) under our system. Nevertheless, the world is shades of grey and we know it goes on, to a greater or lesser extent.Manipulating the market is only "illegal" unless government is the one doing the manipulating. Governments manipulate markets all the time. Think tax breaks, subsidies (electric cars), bans of some products in favor of others (lightbulbs, limited flow showerheads). The list is endless and every single one "manipulates" the market in some way. We can argue about whether each one is good or bad, but they're all artificial influences on markets. Government doesn't like competitors, though, so it forbids such manipulation unless it's the one doing it. Please note that "special interests" can still get their desired market manipulation by
We don't have a choice about paying tax, the only influence we have is an election every few years - if all the parties are in favour of raising taxes, we have zero influence in reality.History shows this is not true. We have little choice about paying taxes when they are not extreme. However, if a government makes them too high it becomes beneficial for the rich to use some of their money to lobby the tax regulation documents up to several times their normal size to suit their needs. If you look at periods when the top rates of tax were very high. especially in the US, the tax regulations expanded into massive documents. Any smart super rich people had bought an exclusion in there to ensure what they actually paid was reasonably low.
If you look at periods when the top rates of tax were very high. especially in the US, the tax regulations expanded into massive documents. Any smart super rich people had bought an exclusion in there to ensure what they actually paid was reasonably low.Another advantage of the NST. When sales taxes are collected at the retail level, opportunities for "special tax breaks" are minimized. The cash register doesn't care if you're rich or poor, young or old, citizen or not, employer or employee or retired. There's no one to lobby to give you an unfair advantage. Any "breaks" (such as those on life's fundamentals to insure the poor pay nothing) are totally transparent and equally available to everyone without having to hire staffs of tax attorneys and estate planners. Just live your life.
As to the "rich": Yes, investment dollars aren't taxed. But investment dollars, by definition, are poured back into the economy which generates economic activity that "lifts all boats". When rich people indulge themselves and buy something that is for their personal use, those dollars are taxed just like everyone else's. Fancy car = more tax. Private plane = more tax. Et cetera.
Trickle down economics, you should know better.
Canadian miners say Ottawa’s plan to spend $3.8 billion to boost domestic production of lithium, copper and other strategic minerals should help propel the country’s efforts to become a key part of the global electric vehicle supply chain
That is very good news indeed. Wish the USA would take the opportunity to benefit from more of its own domestic resources instead of hoping the far east will continue their exports.
As to the "rich": Yes, investment dollars aren't taxed. But investment dollars, by definition, are poured back into the economy which generates economic activity that "lifts all boats". When rich people indulge themselves and buy something that is for their personal use, those dollars are taxed just like everyone else's. Fancy car = more tax. Private plane = more tax. Et cetera.I am sure rich people see that "fancy" car as necessary in their business.
Trickle down economics, you should know better. Trickle down economics has been debunked but some people keep acting as if it never was. They think that if they do that, (pretend nothing has changed) many people will never realize that it has been. Maybe they are right, but I doubt it.
That's rubbish. Trickle down economics is pretty much :bullshit:. A rich man in the US said that having obscenely rich people not paying their taxes is counterproductive. His argument was a very wealthy person might only buy two pairs of jeans a year... not many more. Total sales of jeans = 2 per year. But if some of his wealth was shared between 2,000 poor people by redistributing wealth using taxation, to the point the poor people have some level of disposable income, they might each buy two pairs a jeans per year. Total sales per jeans per year = 4,000. You can see how the economy overall is benefiting from sharing wealth more. It is simplistic, but in essence it is true.
In any case, Chipageddon is a different argument. It is effecting everyone, but much more so the poorer people than the filthy rich and ultra-greedy.
Some good news on the mining front, I think.QuoteCanadian miners say Ottawa’s plan to spend $3.8 billion to boost domestic production of lithium, copper and other strategic minerals should help propel the country’s efforts to become a key part of the global electric vehicle supply chainhttps://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/canadian-miners-cheer-ottawas-critical-minerals-budget-plan
Mining appears the same as semiconductors - nothing is expanding until the government grants, tax credits appear and only then do corporations take interest. Without incentives, these MBA's are content to sit on their laurels.The semi industry invests a huge amount most years, without being cajolled. I find it rather worrying that investment is going crazy right now, as that signals a catastrophic bust is in the pipeline. You might question where the industry invests, seeking out the best tax breaks, rather than long term stability, but the fact that supply and demand are in balance for a good percentage of the time clearly means long term investment levels have been about right.
Rare-earth mining is extremely toxic, you need a leaching pond with chemicals to seperate the metals. china's domination is due to lax environmental regs.The US built a huge pile of thorium from its rare earth mining, which was a key reason they left it to the Chinese. If they'd developed and deployed reactors which make use of that thorium, there might have been only a modest amount of nasty waste to deal with.
And we still use large amounts of cobalt for those batteries until something better comes up.
Take a look at how and where cobalt is currently mined. ::)
"What the market will bear" is the appropriate phrase for a monopolistic market. [...]
[...]
Am I correct in thinking that some players in the electronics industry are using it [Chipageddon] as a PRETEXT to extract extortionate prices and waits out of people that have no basis in fact as the rationale?
For example, when there is a gasoline shortage - in a free market, the price would shoot up and the volume of fuel sold would go down to cope with the new reality of a shortage. In the real world, the fuel companies get accused of price gouging and politicians threaten them with consequences for their greed....
I am finding myself PIC hopping at the moment.Digikey are showing about 10% of PIC32 parts in stock, which is pretty good as MCUs go these days...
I used PIC16f753 as that was cheapest for a while.
Then out of stock.
So moved to PIC16f1823 for a while.
Then out of stock
So moved onto PIC16F1623.
But bought a few of those to keep me going for a while.
The SMD PIC32's are a no go as all out of stock.
I believe India is actively pursuring thorium fueled reactors. If they get there first, they're going to have a serious advantage over the rest of the world with a power source that is plentiful, has minimal waste handling issues, zero carbon footprint, etc. Isn't that what everyone says they want these days?
So to answer your question: No. TI has no credibility left. At all. They intentionally turned away the VP of Engineering of a huge multinational corporation who wants to design their chips into his company's products. I'm no longer sure what business TI thinks they're in, but it's definitely not the semiconductor business.
I get the impression that we small guys have been living off of a mountain of excess stock that has piled up over the years. Now that mountain has been consumed, the big birds have pecked it all up.
The production of chips is in huge batches, naturally, because once you have the process parameters aligned for maximum yield, you just want to produce the same silicon as much as is reasonable. So, the production is not very flexible, the excess stock is gone, pipeline is dry, it will take a long time and maybe a recession to get the stock levels back up to what we're used to.
I get the impression that we small guys have been living off of a mountain of excess stock that has piled up over the years. Now that mountain has been consumed, the big birds have pecked it all up.
The production of chips is in huge batches, naturally, because once you have the process parameters aligned for maximum yield, you just want to produce the same silicon as much as is reasonable. So, the production is not very flexible, the excess stock is gone, pipeline is dry, it will take a long time and maybe a recession to get the stock levels back up to what we're used to.
I always thought that this is where distributors like Farnell, Digikey, Mouser, etc. come in. They order big quantities from the manufacturers and store them
in their warehouses and sell them in low quantities to small and medium companies.
I just tried to help a VP of Engineering friend at his generally non-electronics company (a big enough name that it's 100% certain everyone here has heard of it) find some specific TI chips for R&D. Low quantity, basically just needs a handful so they can proceed with development. Since none are to be found in the usual channels, I suggested he contact TI's closest Applications Engineer to see if they'd sample them some. Big company, potentially long product life with good volumes, etc. I figured this was in the bag.
In his words: "Texas Instruments told me to pound sand."
So to answer your question: No. TI has no credibility left. At all. They intentionally turned away the VP of Engineering of a huge multinational corporation who wants to design their chips into his company's products. I'm no longer sure what business TI thinks they're in, but it's definitely not the semiconductor business.
So to answer your question: No. TI has no credibility left. At all. They intentionally turned away the VP of Engineering of a huge multinational corporation who wants to design their chips into his company's products. I'm no longer sure what business TI thinks they're in, but it's definitely not the semiconductor business.
It was this strategy that killed Maxim off in the eyes of many engineers - TI had better be very careful here.
Microchip, comparably, does seem to be managing the shortage/overdemand better. They seem to have reasonable enough lead times and keep small quantities available for sampling and prototypes.
We have made the decision at the place I work to avoid designing in any TI part for the foreseeable future, unless it is totally unavoidable. There are very few TI parts that don't have an alternative from another manufacturer.
I think this was before 2020, a local distributor / FAE (field app engineer) manager told me he was unhappy with TI and stopped dealing with them when they canned their FAE's in the hopes their forum would be a sufficient replacement.
...
Do you think Analog's acquisition of Maxim will help Maxim recover?
The same thought has crossed my mind (still wouldn't consider parts from Microchip though). A big driving factor for me is that TI has failed to keep their production going again. During the credit-crunch (2008 / 2009) they also scaled down massively leading to a huge shortage of TI devices.So to answer your question: No. TI has no credibility left. At all. They intentionally turned away the VP of Engineering of a huge multinational corporation who wants to design their chips into his company's products. I'm no longer sure what business TI thinks they're in, but it's definitely not the semiconductor business.
It was this strategy that killed Maxim off in the eyes of many engineers - TI had better be very careful here.
Microchip, comparably, does seem to be managing the shortage/overdemand better. They seem to have reasonable enough lead times and keep small quantities available for sampling and prototypes.
We have made the decision at the place I work to avoid designing in any TI part for the foreseeable future, unless it is totally unavoidable. There are very few TI parts that don't have an alternative from another manufacturer.
I might need to stick to the AD chip. At least AD is a trusted company and I know you can get engineering samples from them, where TI could not care less.
TI chips are now seen by purchasing specialists as the absolute Kryptonite that is forbidden to have in the BOM of new designs.
That sounds like a sweeping generalisation. Could you supply reliable, concrete evidence that this is true please?
TI chips are now seen by purchasing specialists as the absolute Kryptonite that is forbidden to have in the BOM of new designs.
That sounds like a sweeping generalisation. Could you supply reliable, concrete evidence that this is true please?
Get a load of this, a TI sales droid just emailed that i should register to this financing company so they can get the money faster and i won't lose inventory that could otherwise be "sweeped away"I wonder if this is an initiative from an individual or group of individuals acting on their own interests using the name of their larger employer. I have heard stories like these on other well established companies that ended with summary employment termination, but I obviously can't tell for sure.
I have no words
Buongiorno,
consiglio di registrarsi ad Apruve per acquistare su ti.com con bonifico bancario a 30 giorni. Per attivare l’account ci vogliono circa 1-2 giorni, per quello suggerisco di farlo preventivamente per non trovarsi scoperti nel momento del bisogno e avere altri clienti che “soffiano via” il materiale. Qui il link per applicare:
https://apruve.com/apply-for-credit/
Stiamo investendo molto sul sito, essere abilitati nel migliore dei modi dará un vantaggio competitivo su altri clienti.
Grazie,
F******
F****** ******
Technical Sales Representative
Texas Instruments
Via Torri Bianche 6 – Palazzo Tiglio
20871 Vimercate (MB), Italy
Texas Instruments Italia S.r.l. con unico socio, P. IVA. e C.F. 01924560152. Sede legale: Quartiere Torri Bianche - Via Torri Bianche, 6 Pal. Tiglio, 20871 Vimercate (MB). Iscrizione al Registro delle imprese di Monza e Brianza n. 01924560152. Capitale Sociale i.v. Euro 100.000. La società è soggetta all’attività di direzione e coordinamento della Texas Instruments Incorporated
Many are favouring buyers who act more like partners, by signing long-term purchase commitments or investing to help chip makers raise production. Above all, the chip makers are asking clients to share more information earlier about which chips they will need, which helps guide decisions about how to lift manufacturing.
"That visibility is what we need," said Mr Hassane El-Khoury, CEO of chip maker Onsemi, previously known as ON Semiconductor.
Many of the chip makers said they are using their new power with restraint, helping customers avoid problems like factory shutdowns, and raising their prices modestly. That is because gouging customers, they said, could cause bad blood that would hurt sales when shortages end. Even so, the power shift has been unmistakable. "Today there is no leverage" for buyers, said Mr Mark Adams, chief executive of Smart Global Holdings, a major user of memory chips.
Marvell Technology, a Silicon Valley company that designs chips and outsources the manufacturing, has experienced the change in power. While it used to give foundries estimates of its chip production needs for 12 months, it began providing them with five-year forecasts starting in April. "You need a really good story," said Mr Matt Murphy, Marvell's CEO. "Ultimately the supply chain is going to allocate to who they think are going to be the winners."
It is a substantial change in psychology for a mature industry where growth has generally been slow. Many chip makers had, for years, sold largely interchangeable products and often struggled to keep their factories running profitably, particularly if sales slumped for items like personal computers and smartphones that drove most chip demand. But the components are essential for more products now, one of many signs that rapid growth may linger. In the third quarter, total chip sales surged nearly 28 per cent to US$144.8 billion, said the Semiconductor Industry Association.
Years of industry consolidation have also wrung out excess manufacturing capacity and left fewer suppliers selling exclusive kinds of chips. So buyers that could once place and cancel orders with little notice - and play one chip maker off another to get lower prices - have less muscle. One effect of these changes was to make chip factories more valuable, including some older ones owned by foundries. That is because new manufacturing processes have become so costly that some chip designers are not shifting to the most advanced factories to make their products. The result has been a demand crunch for less expensive production lines that are five to 10 years old.
So some foundries, in a major strategy shift, are beginning to put more money into older production technology. TSMC recently said it would build such a plant in Japan. South Korea's Samsung Electronics, a key foundry rival, has also said it was considering a new "legacy" factory.
Apruve *seems* legit at first search:There are two industries I can think of that are into financing their customers. First is the auto industry, for obvious reasons, are heavily into getting people past the sticker shock and overspending. I think there were times when profits from the finance/lending arms of Gm and Ford carried those companies. The other company was the telco provider Nortel. Before Nortel went bust they were lending at insane levels. Something like 80% plus of the order book was self-leveraged to boost the stock price to record levels.
https://apruve.com/
...so this is indeed a concerning message. There doesn't appear to be any "affiliate" link so I can't see how the rep is benefiting from this, it's just how TI are managing credit now. But they're essentially saying that to avoid the stock being bought up by others with more capital, borrow money so you can buy these parts instead. Way to go on actually solving the problem (sarcasm). And this will just lead to further inflation... just like extending mortgage affordability doesn't really allow more people to buy homes, as the prices go up in line with affordability...
Apple is also jumping into the “buy now pay later” market. With Apple Pay Later, iPhone and Mac users in the US can pay for purchases in four instalments over six weeks. The system will work at any location that supports Apple Pay, online and in physical retail stores.
Basically, providing finance to your customers is a profitable side arm, and it increases sales in general so is a "Good Thing for the Economy" (TM)!
a 2 euro part now is being quoted at 57$(this morning)
Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.
Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.
I'm not completely sure I'd agree with that. The retailer makes less on the pay-later sales, but that's only relevant if a significant number of people choose that option who would otherwise have made the same purchase all in one lump. Otherwise any reduced per-item margins are more than made up for by increased sales volume overall, which is why retailers choose to participate in these schemes in the first place.
What scares me about these schemes is that they market themselves as "budgeting tools" - as distinct, somehow, from "credit". There has been quite a lot in the news recently about this; seems the idea that "pay later == effectively free" is actually a thing that the Instagram generation genuinely believes to be true.
It's likely there are tons of fake orders for semiconductors. Why not order all over the place and just cancel the order if you find some better priced parts or you end up not needing them. You don't have to pay until product is actually received. This would drive the 'pay in advance' policy.
TI broke ground (https://news.ti.com/texas-instruments-breaks-ground-on-new-300-mm-semiconductor-wafer-fabrication-plants-in-sherman-texas) on their 300nm Sherman, Texas fab, expected production in 2025.It is EXTREMELY hard to make new fab investment decisions. They can exceed a year's total revenue for even a fairly large semiconductor maker, and they have a very limited life as a high revenue operation. The time it takes to build and ramp a fab can easily take you from a boom to the next bust, and the semiconductor industry has frequent deep destructive busts. Everyone committing to a new fab lives in fear of it coming on line in the next slump.
What excellent foresight and planning, literally 2 years to make that decision, it was so hard :-DD
It's likely there are tons of fake orders for semiconductors. Why not order all over the place and just cancel the order if you find some better priced parts or you end up not needing them. You don't have to pay until product is actually received. This would drive the 'pay in advance' policy.
The backorders we have made have all been NCNR - non cancellable, non returnable.
You'd go to your local department store like Sears and buy a couch and take it home and you'd pay Sears directly some amount of money each month until the couch was paid off. It was a way for Sears to sell couches to people who didn't have the full purchase price in cash at the time of the sale. Remember that 30 years or so ago, most people didn't have and couldn't get credit cards.
Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.
I'm not completely sure I'd agree with that. The retailer makes less on the pay-later sales, but that's only relevant if a significant number of people choose that option who would otherwise have made the same purchase all in one lump. Otherwise any reduced per-item margins are more than made up for by increased sales volume overall, which is why retailers choose to participate in these schemes in the first place.
What scares me about these schemes is that they market themselves as "budgeting tools" - as distinct, somehow, from "credit". There has been quite a lot in the news recently about this; seems the idea that "pay later == effectively free" is actually a thing that the Instagram generation genuinely believes to be true.
Exactly. Saying that a manufacturer sits on their hands waiting for the market to collapse and burn only reveals a complete ignorance of the extreme investment that is fully chained by the whims of such environment. Depletion happened and panic buy took place; did the market actually increase to make such new fabs operate at 100% capacity or there'll be simply an excess stock that will deflate demand?TI broke ground (https://news.ti.com/texas-instruments-breaks-ground-on-new-300-mm-semiconductor-wafer-fabrication-plants-in-sherman-texas) on their 300nm Sherman, Texas fab, expected production in 2025.It is EXTREMELY hard to make new fab investment decisions. They can exceed a year's total revenue for even a fairly large semiconductor maker, and they have a very limited life as a high revenue operation. The time it takes to build and ramp a fab can easily take you from a boom to the next bust, and the semiconductor industry has frequent deep destructive busts. Everyone committing to a new fab lives in fear of it coming on line in the next slump.
What excellent foresight and planning, literally 2 years to make that decision, it was so hard :-DD
I might need to stick to the AD chip. At least AD is a trusted company and I know you can get engineering samples from them, where TI could not care less.
I've found ADI to be just as bad, if not worse. They completely screwed us by cancelling several production orders we made for a new design, all of which had verified leadtimes. To make matters worse, we got stuck with the inventory we already purchased, which we can't use, because the later orders were canceled and we changed the design of the product.
Screw ADI.
Maybe I can sell them on the secondary market. Anyone need ADAU1451/2?
[...] Saying that a manufacturer sits on their hands waiting for the market to collapse and burn only reveals a complete ignorance of the extreme investment that is fully chained by the whims of such environment. Depletion happened and panic buy took place; did the market actually increase to make such new fabs operate at 100% capacity or there'll be simply an excess stock that will deflate demand?
There are many examples of industries and companies that collapsed (or almost) due to investments when markets clamored for demand/help only to be left for dead when supplies resumed or a shift took place and the demand was emptied - masks anyone?
Two, what happens if the customer misses payments?
It's nothing to do with the "extreme investment". TI has $156B market cap, ADI (https://investor.analog.com/) $88B, Intel $178B, NXP $48B - these companies have the money, it's one reason they are on the stock exchange in the first place, for investor's money.
It's nothing to do with the "extreme investment". TI has $156B market cap, ADI (https://investor.analog.com/) $88B, Intel $178B, NXP $48B - these companies have the money, it's one reason they are on the stock exchange in the first place, for investor's money.
Market cap != accessible cash. Tesla should be a pretty good example of the insanity that market caps can represent. Do you really think Tesla could spend $700B overnight?
They would still need to use cash-on-hand or borrow at commercial rates, or they'd need to dilute their stock by selling more to raise cash, which could panic Wall Street.
It's likely there are tons of fake orders for semiconductors. Why not order all over the place and just cancel the order if you find some better priced parts or you end up not needing them. You don't have to pay until product is actually received. This would drive the 'pay in advance' policy.
The Sherman facility is the third fab TI has under construction in the United States, so this project is in fact forward thinking. The first of the three was launched in 2018: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-instruments-plans-add-facility-131901488.html
Apruve *seems* legit at first search:
https://apruve.com/ (https://apruve.com/)
...so this is indeed a concerning message. There doesn't appear to be any "affiliate" link so I can't see how the rep is benefiting from this, it's just how TI are managing credit now. But they're essentially saying that to avoid the stock being bought up by others with more capital, borrow money so you can buy these parts instead. Way to go on actually solving the problem (sarcasm). And this will just lead to further inflation... just like extending mortgage affordability doesn't really allow more people to buy homes, as the prices go up in line with affordability...
Hi Jacopo,I don't know if i want to bother telling the guy how i feel about his email, certain things shouldn't be put in writing
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"TI’s published lead-times are for reference only and subject to change based on availability.
Estimated Shipment Dates (ESDs) are assigned based on actual Product availability at the time of purchase order acceptance. This document and any sale of TI products by TI are subject to TI’s Terms of Sale."
Bosch Dresden 300nm fab has been running for about a year now, it was an expansion $1.2B started in 2018, $200M in grants and subsidies. Strangely cheap.Not strange at all. As far as I know Bosch doesn't produce any super fine geometry parts. They make a lot of things like MEMS sensors and SiC parts, which don't require a highly expensive state of the art fab.
Exactly. Saying that a manufacturer sits on their hands waiting for the market to collapse and burn only reveals a complete ignorance of the extreme investment that is fully chained by the whims of such environment.Sitting on their hands, I don't know.
What I don't understand is why you mention they stopped delivering to distributors - I thought the issue was panic purchases that depleted inventories à lá toiletpapergate? If the manufacturers are being simply dishonest, why did they not raise the prices of their own products to pursue higher profits? After all, retail sales carry a higher profit and, at this moment, it seems that scalpers are taking all of it.Exactly. Saying that a manufacturer sits on their hands waiting for the market to collapse and burn only reveals a complete ignorance of the extreme investment that is fully chained by the whims of such environment.Sitting on their hands, I don't know.
But they threw a complete class of their customers under the bus, because, it seems that they stopped delivering to all distributors exactly at the worst possible moment, fucking up the supply and grinding production to a halt for all the people using their chips in small to middle volume.
Probably you can get TI chips if you are an automotive supplier taking 40 million chips/yr, but all others have been shafted, and know who not to design in for the next 10 years.
The volumes of chips in automotive are actually very high.
When you're Conti or Bosch, Delphi or similar, you buy probably 200 million chips/year.
Most of them are sub-$, but still, it's a very high volume.
01/2021 Volkswagen was going to sue Continental and Bosch over the chip shortages. I haven't heard anything since.Indeed that is a very plausible explanation for redirecting stock away from the mass market. (edit) Karel's post is quite interesting on this regard and, if it is the same across all manufacturers, may reinforce the theory of panic buy.
Fear of lawsuits would explain semiconductor manufacturers catering exclusively to the automotive top customers, but they're high volume, low margin though.
I still smell a rat. It still doesn't explain the semiconductor manufacturer's record profits when supposedly they don't have much and are catering to their lowest margin customers.Well, in a normal year you might have regular production and some excess inventory that is unrealized gain, thus reducing revenue and profit (to manage all this inventory). In this environment the opposite would happen: product is flying off the shelves and inventory is minimum.
01/2021 Volkswagen was going to sue Continental and Bosch over the chip shortages. I haven't heard anything since.
Fear of lawsuits would explain semiconductor manufacturers catering exclusively to the automotive top customers, but they're high volume, low margin though.
You can sell higher quantity at lower price, or lower quantity at a higher price, and either way have the same money flow. But in a shortage situation it's best to sell fewer at higher prices. Why would you not sell to distributors (at all) to get that higher margin?
I still smell a rat. It still doesn't explain the semiconductor manufacturer's record profits when supposedly they don't have much and are catering to their lowest margin customers.
I suspect large purchasers that deal directly are paying one or two orders of magnitude more in price, negotiated privately and in-confidence, and where the relative expense for the buyer is low versus the received revenue on a shipped product (eg a vehicle, weapon etc).
Distributors (like mouser,digikey) cannot follow those prices up, even in an economy where the general price level is rising, without accusations of price gouging/profiteering etc . So distributors only get token quantities of parts, on an infrequent delivery schedule, just enough not to completely burn the relationship.
This would explain why manufacturers won't publicly acknowledge the supply crisis, because from one perspective it doesn't exist - production is already ramped up, and they can sell all they produce (evidenced by revenue reporting).
Where's my ability to out-bid the high bidders? That's a fair market instead of selling to gangsters.
Digi-Key is useless not providing numbers for what they have on order, if any, and expected delivery dates.What are you talking about? DigiKey, Mouser, Farnell and others all provide estimated delivery dates when they exist. They don't exist for every product. [attach=1]
You'd think they have some pull like a car maker.The reason big customers like automakers or consumer electronics manufacturers like Samsung have pull is because they buy millions of a specific part per year, so the semiconductor manufacturers can plan their factory runs around those orders.
Where's my ability to out-bid the high bidders? That's a fair market instead of selling to gangsters.
Wait, do we like brokers or not? I thought we hated brokers auctioning components last week
How does Digi-Key manage its sales and financing?
If TI ships 100k chips to Digi-Key, does Digi-Key pay upfront for those, or only on sale of the goods?
Don't know about electronics disties but if Digi-Key was a supermarket TI would be paying them for space on their shelves.
That kind of deal would make sense here: a distie isn't going to want to tie up lots of funds in slow-moving and expensive niche products, so even if they don't pay up front there is still the storage costs and everything. For a manufacturer, being able to have a part delivered next day could be the difference between a big order and the designer going for something he can get his hands on now.
In these days of shortage I don't think anyone is doing consignment - i.e., pay only for sold stock.How does Digi-Key manage its sales and financing?
If TI ships 100k chips to Digi-Key, does Digi-Key pay upfront for those, or only on sale of the goods?
Don't know about electronics disties but if Digi-Key was a supermarket TI would be paying them for space on their shelves.
That kind of deal would make sense here: a distie isn't going to want to tie up lots of funds in slow-moving and expensive niche products, so even if they don't pay up front there is still the storage costs and everything. For a manufacturer, being able to have a part delivered next day could be the difference between a big order and the designer going for something he can get his hands on now.
The problem with the shortages is they are self-reinforcing; if a load of STM32F4's is to drop on Digi-Key tomorrow, are you going to buy one month's supply, or are you going to buy one year's supply?Exactly. Toiletpapergate.
P.S. - Are Amazon abusing sample ordering from TI ? This would explain why samples are locked down.
Why can't we just get along....
As I understand it, the reason <some products> are produced in significant quantities in <some countries> is due to the low cost of labour. There is nothing particularly special about the process (merely <some known process>), and no doubt there are other facilities across <the world> that are capable of this production, and possibly they could even be scaled up with extra shifts.
Brokers yes. Scalpels not.Where's my ability to out-bid the high bidders? That's a fair market instead of selling to gangsters.
Wait, do we like brokers or not? I thought we hated brokers auctioning components last week
As I understand it, the reason noble gases are produced in significant quantities in Ukraine and Russia is due to the low cost of labour. There is nothing particularly special about the process (merely fractionation of atmospheric air), and no doubt there are other facilities across Europe that are capable of this production, and possibly they could even be scaled up with extra shifts.Gas production plants use very little labour. Plants that produce oxygen, nitrogen and argon are spread across the west, because of the economics of transporting these large scale products. If those plants have abandoned the separation of the rarer gases, I assume the demand is so low that the market has narrowed to a few niche players who specialise in meeting that demand.
[...]
My understanding is that demand of semiconductor's is much higher than supply but not quite sure why that happened so sudden.
I am not sure I buy that hoarding theory. Chips are not like wine which gets better with time, they become obsolete.
I am not sure I buy that hoarding theory. Chips are not like wine which gets better with time, they become obsolete.
If you buy 50 $1 chips and try to sell them for $50 each, all you need to do is sell two of them to be in the bonus. You can toss the remaining 48.
I ordered STM32F373 microcontroller's from Mouser in February 2021 and on website before ordering estimated delivery was 52 weeks but after ordering there was no date just "Will advise*"
Then in December 2021 they asked if I'm OK with a price increase from $4.07 to $4.61 (Canadian dollars). But there was still no delivery date estimate.
Then in April 2022 they again asked me to accept a price increase now form $4.61 to $5.25 still no delivery estimate.
I guess this will not be the last price increase and not sure I will ever get them so I will need to find them on the black market at multiple time the cost and with good chances to get fake parts. I say this I already got a batch where about 60% of the microcontrollers where fake (some other components with same footprint and laser etched the part number I ordered). I build a set of boards and then needed to manually desolder the fake microcontrollers and solder the non-fake ones. After I knew there were fake parts combined with good but old parts I was able to visually identify the fake parts and remove.
There are many other parts that I ordered and will be delivered at end of year and next year but at least there is a date tho in two cases the date was pushed back a few times so not better than the microcontroller (some Toshiba mosfets).
And is not just semiconductors even things like connectors (2.5mm pin pitch Phoenix) are not in stock with delivery estimates around the end of the year.
I do not think there will be improvements anytime soon and things may get even worse.
I know when checking the stocks for mosfets (power mosfets) there was some alternative stock even if limited so I could have changed my design last year but looking now at both Mouser and Digikey there is basically zero stock even for alternative's.
And I can not get alternatives for some parts like the Microcontroller as that will mean likely many months of hardware and software changes.
My understanding is that demand of semiconductor's is much higher than supply but not quite sure why that happened so sudden.
I am not sure I buy that hoarding theory. Chips are not like wine which gets better with time, they become obsolete.
During times of high inflation, it makes sense to invest your money in goods... that can be sold later, in exchange for a larger amount of less valuable currency.
During this cycle, a lot of clever people have been buying things up for resale later.
All of the stuff we can't get now, will magically reappear at a higher price later, just wait and see.
I am not sure I buy that hoarding theory. Chips are not like wine which gets better with time, they become obsolete.
Well, I know people that are being offered more for their used cars than they paid for them new originally... inflation is a crazy thing.
I am not sure I buy that hoarding theory. Chips are not like wine which gets better with time, they become obsolete.
Well, I know people that are being offered more for their used cars than they paid for them new originally... inflation is a crazy thing.
That's not inflation. That's the price of insufficient supply rising to meet demand.
And, face it, most of the price rises we are seeing across the board aren't the result of inflation. How can we tell? When we see corporate earnings greatly increased year over year while seeing retail prices rise, that's not inflation. That's greed.
I am not sure I buy that hoarding theory. Chips are not like wine which gets better with time, they become obsolete.
Well, I know people that are being offered more for their used cars than they paid for them new originally... inflation is a crazy thing.
That's not inflation. That's the price of insufficient supply rising to meet demand.
And, face it, most of the price rises we are seeing across the board aren't the result of inflation. How can we tell? When we see corporate earnings greatly increased year over year while seeing retail prices rise, that's not inflation. That's greed.
[...]that's not inflation. That's greed.
I'm pretty sure greed is usually the cause of inflation.Nope, but that's what the politicians want you to believe! Inflation is really an increase in the money supply per unit of economic activity. Roughly like (MoneySupply/EconomicActivityLevel). The most common cause to drive that equation positive, meaning INflation (though not the only possible one), is wildly adding too many new dollars when the underlying economic activity does not also rise accordingly. This means all dollars in circulation are each worth less.
I'm pretty sure greed is usually the cause of inflation.Nope, but that's what the politicians want you to believe! .
[...]
Greed - at least economic greed by companies, which is what I believe you were implying (if I'm wrong, I apologize but I hear this from a lot of people lately) - is not the cause of inflation and corporations have no way to influence the money supply.
Yes... The infamous "prime rate" of the 1980s sucking the monetary air of the world and leaving crumbles of investment money to the developing countries with naturally higher risk. Although we had our own immense incompetency in running our own country (mentioned in this interesting article (https://fee.org/articles/hyperinflation-lessons-from-south-america/)), the thugs from IMF also tried to impose all sorts of crazy austerity policies that were shown a few years later to be vicariously damning to the population with very little effect in curbing the problem.
The last time this happened (1970s) the inflation genie was only put back in its bottle when Paul Volcker increase interest rates to crazy levels in the 1980s to rescue the economy.
Yes... The infamous "prime rate" of the 1980s sucking the monetary air of the world and leaving crumbles of investment money to the developing countries with naturally higher risk. Although we had our own immense incompetency in running our own country (mentioned in this interesting article (https://fee.org/articles/hyperinflation-lessons-from-south-america/)), the thugs from IMF also tried to impose all sorts of crazy austerity policies that were shown a few years later to be vicariously damning to the population with very little effect in curbing the problem.
The last time this happened (1970s) the inflation genie was only put back in its bottle when Paul Volcker increase interest rates to crazy levels in the 1980s to rescue the economy.
The cautionary tale for the US of yesterday and today is mentioned in the article, where things were still "good" with an inflation of only 500% a year when it was written (it peaked at more than 2000% a year between 1988 and 1993). Brazilians call this period the "lost decade".
There are pretty much no suitable buck converters left on Digi-Key for the condition of 3V-7.5V input (ie. up to 4xAA Lithium), 1A output. I found one LT device at £9.80 a chip. 114 pieces left, so would do a third of one batch...
The shocking thing is there are 35,000 items listed... and only 5,000 of them have any stock at all.
...and it is such hard work finding suitable parts on LCSC - they do have parametric search, but it doesn't inspire confidence, so it's a lot of work searching through datasheets.
There are pretty much no suitable buck converters left on Digi-Key for the condition of 3V-7.5V input (ie. up to 4xAA Lithium), 1A output.Wot ??
There are many, for example the good 34063, in many variants.
https://www.digikey.fr/fr/products/detail/onsemi/MC34063ADR2G/919066 (https://www.digikey.fr/fr/products/detail/onsemi/MC34063ADR2G/919066)
So what ?
1) it's available
2) It works reliably
3) it's cheap.
4) it's much more efficient than a linear reg.
Although i've never put a 34063 in a design, I regularily put ICs with the same design age into modern designs.
nowadays you go for a modern switcher running at 1MHzSure, I do also. Usually. But today, you can either do that, and wait 2 years for your boards, or put available alternatives, like old inefficient designs, or discrete solutions, and Bingo, get your boards in 2 months.
Yup. I have designed some switchers from MPS in as alternatives as well. No need to resort to using outdated components that are a really poor fit for modern day designs.There are many, for example the good 34063, in many variants.
https://www.digikey.fr/fr/products/detail/onsemi/MC34063ADR2G/919066 (https://www.digikey.fr/fr/products/detail/onsemi/MC34063ADR2G/919066)
Yes, because I'm going to put a 34063, which needs like a 220uH inductor and electrolytic capacitor, on a board that measures less than 30x30mm.
Not to mention its abysmal efficiency, its lack of any control loop (it's just a pulse-skip pulse-fire converter) and low switching frequencies, making it a nightmare for EMC.
I can't tell if you're being serious or not - but no one sensible is designing a 34063 into a new product - and that's why there are squillions of them in stock.
Thankfully, MPS saves the day... they have the perfect parts and we just got what we needed.
Microchip 2022 Investor Presentation, it's all unicorns and rainbows. Ahh do we all feel the massive profits and love?
...
What are these executives smoking? $6.8B in sales, up 25.7% yoy - yet 100+week leadtimes for a venerable Mega328! This is sadly hilarious :-DD
From News Releases (https://www.microchip.com/en-us/about/news-releases), Investor Presentation BOA GlobalTech Conference June 2022.pdf (https://ww1.microchip.com/downloads/aemDocuments/documents/investor/press-release/Investor_Presentation_BOAGlobalTechConference_June2022.060722.pdf)
So what ?And it has the quiescent current that would cut the battery life of my design to about 1/1000th of the design goal.
1) it's available
2) It works reliably
3) it's cheap.
4) it's much more efficient than a linear reg.
Although i've never put a 34063 in a design, I regularily put ICs with the same design age into modern designs.
Hammers don't age.
Hammers don't go out of stock.
Concerning EMC, slower less harsh switching makes EMC easier...
How semi manufacturers have zero interest in anything but the whales, is a very serious problem.It's worse than that. All the industrial manufacturers, who are making machinery, are only ever going to order several thousands of some chips, instead of several millions. The ones, that are building the production line, and not the product. Imagine ASML not getting the ICs that are necessary for the machine to make the ICs. This can spiral out of control very quickly.
It's going to cause a mass extinction event, for small and medium sized businesses, as well as discouraging people from getting into electronics in the first place.
Greed is good, greed is legal. What a way for the electronics manufacturing and engineering industry to get wiped out, by beancounters.
Ordering automotive NXP samples... "2024 expected ship date". Thanks for the FU. It's all about your sales dollar amounts, or the comment "why would anyone design-in your unavailable parts?". Bark and the rep is able to bring them in a couple weeks :palm:
It's worse than that. All the industrial manufacturers, who are making machinery, are only ever going to order several thousands of some chips, instead of several millions. The ones, that are building the production line, and not the product. Imagine ASML not getting the ICs that are necessary for the machine to make the ICs. This can spiral out of control very quickly.
As said before, 100 week leadtimes are a problem for the SMEs. I bet Microchip has all the contracts they need with big players, e.g. Arduino & consumer electronics manufacturers so that they can still buy the 328's they need.
It was just an example. When the loop like this becomes larger, the willingness to pay scalpels are becoming less and less. I'm in one of these loops, and for example I cannot build a temperature controller for the transport company, that carries the paint for your car.It's worse than that. All the industrial manufacturers, who are making machinery, are only ever going to order several thousands of some chips, instead of several millions. The ones, that are building the production line, and not the product. Imagine ASML not getting the ICs that are necessary for the machine to make the ICs. This can spiral out of control very quickly.
But unlike an SME, a company like ASML can probably afford to buy a $1,000 PIC24 from a broker if they need to, after all, the business has something close to a 50% gross margin.
But unlike an SME, a company like ASML can probably afford to buy a $1,000 PIC24 from a broker if they need to, after all, the business has something close to a 50% gross margin.Interesting. You think a business like ASML can survive on a 50% gross margin?
It was just an example. When the loop like this becomes larger, the willingness to pay scalpels are becoming less and less. I'm in one of these loops, and for example I cannot build a temperature controller for the transport company, that carries the paint for your car.It's worse than that. All the industrial manufacturers, who are making machinery, are only ever going to order several thousands of some chips, instead of several millions. The ones, that are building the production line, and not the product. Imagine ASML not getting the ICs that are necessary for the machine to make the ICs. This can spiral out of control very quickly.
But unlike an SME, a company like ASML can probably afford to buy a $1,000 PIC24 from a broker if they need to, after all, the business has something close to a 50% gross margin.
Imagine ASML not getting the ICs that are necessary for the machine to make the ICs. This can spiral out of control very quickly.
But unlike an SME, a company like ASML can probably afford to buy a $1,000 PIC24 from a broker if they need to, after all, the business has something close to a 50% gross margin.Interesting. You think a business like ASML can survive on a 50% gross margin?
It was just an example. When the loop like this becomes larger, the willingness to pay scalpels are becoming less and less. I'm in one of these loops, and for example I cannot build a temperature controller for the transport company, that carries the paint for your car.
[...]This is a sucky time to be an individual engineer [...]
A friend of mine works in a lumber mill and it sounds like they are going through similar pains. Saw blades are hard to get (~1 year lead time), some mills stocked up and should be ok. Other mills could be in trouble and might end up with lower quality blades that slow down production. Some of their grinders are out of commission waiting for electronic repairs. They are also facing a shortage of new apprentices to replace retirees.Plastic lead times are getting longer and longer. I bought a dozen toothbrush by accident, maybe I'll be the lucky one.
Yes, I might have heard about it. I hope the 4 teenager is happy with their wireless earbuds, and a multi billion dollar factory needs to shut down, because the headset company ordered first and has better lawyers.Imagine ASML not getting the ICs that are necessary for the machine to make the ICs. This can spiral out of control very quickly.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-is-chipageddon-affecting-you/msg4098640/#msg4098640 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-is-chipageddon-affecting-you/msg4098640/#msg4098640)
I agree but one nice thing is I've been seeing a few more job ads lately for HW engineers.
That statement by the recruiter is just untrue.I agree but one nice thing is I've been seeing a few more job ads lately for HW engineers.
Yes, the job market for engineers is *hot* right now. I know a recruiter (the devil you know and all) and he tells me that employers are really struggling to find good engineers. Make hay while the sun shines - this might not last forever but this is a great time to be in the field.
That statement by the recruiter is just untrue.
If the company would just make an ad, EE wanted, salary: competitive with FAAMG software engineers, they wouldn't have any issue filling up that HW position. The correct statement is: "employers are really struggling to find good engineers for how much they are willing to pay" or "employers are really struggling to cope with reality on how much engineering salaries are"
That statement by the recruiter is just untrue.I agree but one nice thing is I've been seeing a few more job ads lately for HW engineers.
Yes, the job market for engineers is *hot* right now. I know a recruiter (the devil you know and all) and he tells me that employers are really struggling to find good engineers. Make hay while the sun shines - this might not last forever but this is a great time to be in the field.
If the company would just make an ad, EE wanted, salary: competitive with FAAMG software engineers, they wouldn't have any issue filling up that HW position. The correct statement is: "employers are really struggling to find good engineers for how much they are willing to pay" or "employers are really struggling to cope with reality on how much engineering salaries are"
Then start posting salaries. I also hate when they don't, but here they often times do.That statement by the recruiter is just untrue.
If the company would just make an ad, EE wanted, salary: competitive with FAAMG software engineers, they wouldn't have any issue filling up that HW position. The correct statement is: "employers are really struggling to find good engineers for how much they are willing to pay" or "employers are really struggling to cope with reality on how much engineering salaries are"
It's not. I don't know about the US, but in the UK most positions are advertised without salaries, just "competitive salary". It's a bug-bear of mine. The point is, the CVs that we do get, are just no good at all. We see a few good candidates now and then and are snapping them up when we get them, but it's rare. We've had a position open for an FPGA engineer for 6 months... It's not the advertised salary (because almost no one posts a salary); engineers are just staying put. They're either happy with what they've got, or fearful of moving, but either way, it's a really brutal market to recruit in.
As a small company it's difficult to pool resource into junior engineers but we do that too where we can, but that has limits. End result is we just use contractors instead.
Salaries are rarely posted in Canada either. It is really annoying, specially when trying to set my salary expectations. I found glassdoor.ca and the Randstad salary guide helpful but would rather see what is actually out there being offered.I think glassdoor, payscale and other sites are under-reporting salaries. Because it is used by people who are not satisfied with their salary, it only captures the low-end of the payscale. Until we don't get better clarity on how much EEs are payed, we are not going to get the salaries we deserve.
I suspect it's either so low they try to hide it from potential applicants or it's so high, they try to hide it from current employees who are making less.
Salaries are rarely posted in Canada either. It is really annoying, specially when trying to set my salary expectations. I found glassdoor.ca and the Randstad salary guide helpful but would rather see what is actually out there being offered.I think glassdoor, payscale and other sites are under-reporting salaries. Because it is used by people who are not satisfied with their salary, it only captures the low-end of the payscale. Until we don't get better clarity on how much EEs are payed, we are not going to get the salaries we deserve.
I suspect it's either so low they try to hide it from potential applicants or it's so high, they try to hide it from current employees who are making less.
https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/
(https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/)
This is a good read on how much you can earn as an SW. I think if you feel like you are not payed properly, you probably aren't. I can tell you, getting a job with much better pay was surprisingly easy, I just had to ask for it.
In the end contracting pays better than being employed. Many companies don't have the amount of work to pay a specialist enough for what the person is capable of. And the focus of a company may also shift. At one of my jobs my work shifted from 100% FPGA development to 100% software development. Because I wasn't interested in the latter I left.That statement by the recruiter is just untrue.
If the company would just make an ad, EE wanted, salary: competitive with FAAMG software engineers, they wouldn't have any issue filling up that HW position. The correct statement is: "employers are really struggling to find good engineers for how much they are willing to pay" or "employers are really struggling to cope with reality on how much engineering salaries are"
It's not. I don't know about the US, but in the UK most positions are advertised without salaries, just "competitive salary". It's a bug-bear of mine. The point is, the CVs that we do get, are just no good at all. We see a few good candidates now and then and are snapping them up when we get them, but it's rare. We've had a position open for an FPGA engineer for 6 months... It's not the advertised salary (because almost no one posts a salary); engineers are just staying put. They're either happy with what they've got, or fearful of moving, but either way, it's a really brutal market to recruit in.
As a small company it's difficult to pool resource into junior engineers but we do that too where we can, but that has limits. End result is we just use contractors instead.
That statement by the recruiter is just untrue.
If the company would just make an ad, EE wanted, salary: competitive with FAAMG software engineers, they wouldn't have any issue filling up that HW position. The correct statement is: "employers are really struggling to find good engineers for how much they are willing to pay" or "employers are really struggling to cope with reality on how much engineering salaries are"
It's not. I don't know about the US, but in the UK most positions are advertised without salaries, just "competitive salary". It's a bug-bear of mine. The point is, the CVs that we do get, are just no good at all. We see a few good candidates now and then and are snapping them up when we get them, but it's rare. We've had a position open for an FPGA engineer for 6 months... It's not the advertised salary (because almost no one posts a salary); engineers are just staying put. They're either happy with what they've got, or fearful of moving, but either way, it's a really brutal market to recruit in.
As a small company it's difficult to pool resource into junior engineers but we do that too where we can, but that has limits. End result is we just use contractors instead.
In my mind chip fabrication (at least the higher end parts) are produced using highly automated processes. I don't see how labour costs are going to be a big factor in production costs.
Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper... ???
Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper... ???
I'd expect copper consumption to be weighted heavily toward building construction and less toward electronics.
Chipageddon is not effecting me. I live in the bush, I light a fire to cook, I go out on the beach and catch fish with my bare hands. ???And you post to the internet via smoke signals.
That's a copper corp (producer, presumably?), you want...
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html)
Tim
I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.For the past two years the international news has been full of stories about how Australia was utterly unaffected by COVID-19. I would have gone to check it out myself but for some unexplained reason travel to and from Australia was somewhat difficult during that same period. Maybe it was all the other people of the world, seeking to visit the one and only COVID-19 free continent...?
Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper... ???
copper has historically functioned as a leading predictive indicator for the general economy, expect a recession in 3-6 months. This has been true long before microelectronics became a significant portion of the manufacturing sector.
Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper... ???
copper has historically functioned as a leading predictive indicator for the general economy, expect a recession in 3-6 months. This has been true long before microelectronics became a significant portion of the manufacturing sector.
How so? https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data (https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data)
Recessions highlighted in grey, every one I can see, the price drops significantly -after- the recession has started. Before, it's hit or miss whether it's climbing or falling.
Anyone who believes they can predict a recession is falling afoul of the efficient markets hypothesis. Markets are a random walk.
I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.For the past two years the international news has been full of stories about how Australia was utterly unaffected by COVID-19. I would have gone to check it out myself but for some unexplained reason travel to and from Australia was somewhat difficult during that same period. Maybe it was all the other people of the world, seeking to visit the one and only COVID-19 free continent...?
Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper... ???
copper has historically functioned as a leading predictive indicator for the general economy, expect a recession in 3-6 months. This has been true long before microelectronics became a significant portion of the manufacturing sector.
How so? https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data (https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data)
Recessions highlighted in grey, every one I can see, the price drops significantly -after- the recession has started. Before, it's hit or miss whether it's climbing or falling.
Anyone who believes they can predict a recession is falling afoul of the efficient markets hypothesis. Markets are a random walk.
With regard to the "EMH", the usual suspects discuss it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis)
Simply put, it states that asset prices reflect all available information, and is usually discussed with respect to securities.
It not only ignores irrational behavior (which some economists believe exists in nature), but also how business schools teach students how to avoid disclosing such knowledge to the competition.
From the wikipedia article: 'Samuelson published a proof showing that if the market is efficient, prices will exhibit random-walk behavior. This is often cited in support of the efficient-market theory, by the method of affirming the consequent, however in that same paper, Samuelson warns against such backward reasoning, saying "From a nonempirical base of axioms you never get empirical results."'
Another view is contained in the Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox (q.v.) introduced by Sanford J. Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz in a joint publication in American Economic Review in 1980 that argues perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse. (Also from wikipedia).
Checking in my personal library, I found a similar short discussion in John Kay, "Other People's Money", Profile Books 2015, pp 69-70. "There is a logical contradiction at the heart of EMH. If all information were already in the price, what incentive would there be to gather such information in the first place?" This is in his discussion of the CAPM, that applies EMH to "the equilibrium of an efficient market populated by rational agents each holding similar expectations." Further, he states "the EMH at once captures an important aspect of reality--the absence of easy profits--and neglects an equally fundamental one: that the search for profits tghat are not easy is the dynamic of a capitalistic system."
I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.For the past two years the international news has been full of stories about how Australia was utterly unaffected by COVID-19. I would have gone to check it out myself but for some unexplained reason travel to and from Australia was somewhat difficult during that same period. Maybe it was all the other people of the world, seeking to visit the one and only COVID-19 free continent...?
Not so fast.
COVID and the 'flu are rampant in Victoria (Australia) and the hospitals are filling up. I know plenty of people who have had COVID; some twice. About 20 to 30 people die from COVID each day in Victoria and it barely makes the news. In supermarkets, roughly 30% of people wear masks. In churches, a disgraceful 2% at best. People are attending superspreader events like concerts, sporting events and cinemas, and airports without wearing masks. My daughter in Paris says no-one wears masks in public there. Today, the US is number 1, France is number 4 and Australia number 5 for COVID deaths. For political reasons, the state government in Victoria is ignoring advice from medical experts to mandate people wearing masks. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).
...
:)As an Australian I have to say, what a load of BS. You're using blanket statements about Queensland in the same way that you're chastising others for using blanket statements about Australia.
Queensland and Victoria are states in Australia, which is both a country and a continent.
Antarctic bound ships leave from Victoria, and it's cold. The capital, Melbourne, is our first city, is very densely populated, and suffered the most severe lock-down laws on earth.
We all know that the flue happens there in Winter because their houses are closed and heaters on where germs love to incubate.
Here in Queensland, several thousand kilometres North near the Equator, I've not closed my door in thirty years.
It is perpetually warm and sparse (real country). No germ could survive here and we've had no lock-downs, no masks, no illness.
The capital, MelbourneIncorrect. The capital is Canberra.
I don't think they realize just how vast this land is, and that Europe could fit in Victoria several times.I think you need to go back and do some geography lessons :o
The numbers say there is no chip shortage, they're just all going to china.Which numbers are those?
"We have not experienced any significant strikes or work stoppages in recent years." What a crock.Care to elaborate how that's a "crock"? Keep in mind there are legal penalties for putting false information in shareholders reports (in most countries).
Riddle me this - What's out of stock, in short supply yet makes money fall from the sky?
Look at the financial reports of semiconductor manufacturers - the numbers show revenue is spectacular, margins up- for two years now. They also break out the dollars according to sales regions. 6:1 Asia verses North America.
Pick a manufacturer, many have not been supplying to distributors- showing zero stock for a year and another year+ for lead-time.
Strange that the industry is mute saying nothing as allocation rules discriminate against and damage customers, as well as sell to brokers over disti's. The Adafruit videos asking youtube-space for a reel or two of (paid for) semi's is terrible. Allocation (greed?) favouring the whales, yet semi corps all about "innovators, makers" and it should be illegal for them to use the term, given their non-support.
Strikes roll on at STMicroelectronics (https://www.eenewsanalog.com/en/strikes-roll-on-at-stmicroelectronics/) Nov. 2020 and appear to be three unions and one-day strikes? and no idea if or when that ended or if it escalated. I'd read the disgruntled union workers were sabotaging things for ST but the French labour market I don't fully understand the drama.
ST CEO 2021 Annual Report "We have not experienced any significant strikes or work stoppages in recent years." Is that a crock when a CEO covers his ass despite 2020 increase in compensation (https://www-cad--st-org.translate.goog/1000-l-intersyndicale-cad-cfdt-cgt-est-tres-surprise?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) +28.5% to $5.74M up +$1.28M, union is still complaining.
In elementary economics, we learn that if the market is supply-constrained ("inelastic supply"), the net profit to sellers is higher than when it is demand-limited. As I stated earlier, farmers learned many years ago that their earnings actually increased in years of bad harvest (drought, etc.), and we see the same thing now with petroleum vendors.
You can't sell what you don't have.But it's not that the semi manufacturers don't have stock because they're not making any chips. They have no stock because every single chip they make is immediately sold and they still can't keep up with demand. So it's logical that they're making massive profits.
As far as sales to china, I'm not sure how the purchasing/procurement chain works. Ford contracts Continental to make their electronics, who buys with what dollars despite the boards being stuffed in a low cost country. Is Foxconn buying on behalf or Apple, not sure.This is what happens. Why put a middle man when your demand escalates to 1Mu+/yr? Mind you, the parts are earmarked for Apple, but the route they take is from the A&T site straight to the contract manufacturer, wherever they are located.
Semiconductors are not commodity items. I'm not talking about flyshit discretes, but ASICS or 32-bit MCU's etc. which are sole-sourced. You're locked into that particular manufacturer.This was a choice the industry made. Until the late 80s you couldn't get a part into most non-consumer applications without a second source. Big makers had people with titles like "component engineer" who worked with suppliers, checking second sources were real. Checking if two parts actually came from the same production line, just labelled differently at the end; checking if they were using two sources of package, as well as two sources of die; etc. We had two ASICs from two suppliers to do the same job, and the component engineer missed that Kyocera was a SPOF in the supply of both, due to their dominance in ceramic packages. Kyocera had a problem, and we had a major line down for quite a long time.
Semiconductors are not commodity items. I'm not talking about flyshit discretes, but ASICS or 32-bit MCU's etc. which are sole-sourced. You're locked into that particular manufacturer.This was a choice the industry made. Until the late 80s you couldn't get a part into most non-consumer applications without a second source. Big makers had people with titles like "component engineer" who worked with suppliers, checking second sources were real. Checking if two parts actually came from the same production line, just labelled differently at the end; checking if they were using two sources of package, as well as two sources of die; etc. We had two ASICs from two suppliers to do the same job, and the component engineer missed that Kyocera was a SPOF in the supply of both, due to their dominance in ceramic packages. Kyocera had a problem, and we had a major line down for quite a long time.
What do you mean?We source and assemble locally. Sure, it is not in the millions, but thousands, regulatory compliance is difficult, and it is relatively high tech industrial stuff.
Where do you think most of "The West"'s assembly services are located..?
Tim
Yes, having at least two suppliers seems very sensible... it might come back in vogue!If we could find a solution to the chip makers defining a myriad of totally incompatible chip references with similar function, but totally different pinout.
Tawain just increased the prices of electric power for large-scale consumers by 15%
I'm finding the chip shortage great motivation to redesign my products away from IC's and to discrete components.
You get to remove harder to source dedicated IC, replace them with discrete parts that are easier to get and easier to substitute if out of stock. And as a bonus, you save money :)
It seems this semiconductor shortage could go on for much longer than anticipated...
https://www.rdworldonline.com/why-theres-a-neon-shortage-and-why-it-matters/ (https://www.rdworldonline.com/why-theres-a-neon-shortage-and-why-it-matters/)
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-19/ukraine-war-mariupol-noble-gases-neon-helium-are-suffering-from-putin-s-war (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-19/ukraine-war-mariupol-noble-gases-neon-helium-are-suffering-from-putin-s-war)
I am starting to wear down from this Chipageddon mess. Getting heaps of work, but quite frankly, finding alternative chips or circuits for clients is a somewhat boring. Also, the once friendly well known chip distributors are not answering calls or they cannot provide any useful info on supply. I think they are wearing down too :horse:.
Early retirement from electronics is starting to look attractive. Sit at home and catch up on Days Of Our Lives maybe :popcorn:.
What are you doing now ? Back tot cnc work ?It seems this semiconductor shortage could go on for much longer than anticipated...
https://www.rdworldonline.com/why-theres-a-neon-shortage-and-why-it-matters/ (https://www.rdworldonline.com/why-theres-a-neon-shortage-and-why-it-matters/)
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-19/ukraine-war-mariupol-noble-gases-neon-helium-are-suffering-from-putin-s-war (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-19/ukraine-war-mariupol-noble-gases-neon-helium-are-suffering-from-putin-s-war)
I am starting to wear down from this Chipageddon mess. Getting heaps of work, but quite frankly, finding alternative chips or circuits for clients is a somewhat boring. Also, the once friendly well known chip distributors are not answering calls or they cannot provide any useful info on supply. I think they are wearing down too :horse:.
Early retirement from electronics is starting to look attractive. Sit at home and catch up on Days Of Our Lives maybe :popcorn:.
I essentially threw in the towel a while ago. Just couldn't make electronics work. Tons of projects, but no practical way to get them done AND into production in a financially viable way.
I have one project that is still alive, but it is a teeny tiny one. Even that is a pain with numerous re-designs already. Maybe a year, or two, or three.....I will jump back in. Maybe.
I'm finding the chip shortage great motivation to redesign my products away from IC's and to discrete components.
You get to remove harder to source dedicated IC, replace them with discrete parts that are easier to get and easier to substitute if out of stock. And as a bonus, you save money :)
Yeah, I'm right on that, redesigning my small processor plus FPGA board with 800,000 discrete transistors. :-DD
I essentially threw in the towel a while ago.
I essentially threw in the towel a while ago.
I find that somewhat weird. I have read your posts in the past and you seemed like a very capable one-man-show who definitely would have the edge over the competitors in this era due to all the flexibility you get by your do-it-all-yourself attitude.
After all, everybody's struggling with part availability. Larger organizations where redesign takes years of paperwork are going to die. But those who can make quick prototype runs and quick redesign cycles, can survive and even thrive.
...
Strikes roll on at STMicroelectronics (https://www.eenewsanalog.com/en/strikes-roll-on-at-stmicroelectronics/) Nov. 2020 and appear to be three unions and one-day strikes? and no idea if or when that ended or if it escalated. I'd read the disgruntled union workers were sabotaging things for ST but the French labour market I don't fully understand the drama.
ST CEO 2021 Annual Report "We have not experienced any significant strikes or work stoppages in recent years." Is that a crock when a CEO covers his ass despite 2020 increase in compensation (https://www-cad--st-org.translate.goog/1000-l-intersyndicale-cad-cfdt-cgt-est-tres-surprise?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) +28.5% to $5.74M up +$1.28M, union is still complaining.
I didn't thrown in all the towels, just the electrical engineering ones.
Brokers like Win Source reflect the supply-demand curve shifting more towards demand. Their prices may seem extortionate but when there is inadequate supply why would prices not rise? The alternative would be zero parts in stock.
Brokers like WinSource are rent-seeking middlemen who add nothing to the supply chain.
I'd much rather pay the manufacturer a higher price than allow a middle-man to corner the supply market and fuck us on the demand side.
Perhaps it's going to be a controversial opinion but WS et al. allow people to build prototypes and small runs where price is less critical, then join the queue for normally priced parts. But I can hear the molotovs being lit now so I'll duck out >:D
If you're building a $100,000 product and your line is down because of a $2 part, the ability to get them for $200 each is a godsend.
Brokers like Win Source should be shot. Profiteering from misery. It is not capitalism - it is just pure greed.
Brokers like Win Source should be shot. Profiteering from misery. It is not capitalism - it is just pure greed.
Come on now , if you had been around in the spot market shortage circus around 1992 you would had needed a machine gun to clean things up! :)
Everyone, inc big guns was buying from mom and pop hoarders! Nothing new under the sun except a lot more Chinese around these days.
... <snip> ... CHIPS act in Congress.
As I mentioned in another thread, both sides only care for their own and their (pretend) enemies of the other side - they are all at the top and will fight tooth and nail to keep it that way. The notion of shame is also gone - all actions are done at plain sight with no attempts to hide anything.... <snip> ... CHIPS act in Congress.
CHIPS .... eh ? ::)
Not going to happen, at least easily, as Republican camp will not go down without afigh... err.. big cut. :-DD
Nancy Pelosi Urges Support Of $50 Billion 'CHIPS' Bill Hours After Disclosing $8 Million Nvidia Stake :scared:
Source -> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nancy-pelosi-throws-her-support-behind-50-billion-semiconductor-bill-hours-after-disclosing (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nancy-pelosi-throws-her-support-behind-50-billion-semiconductor-bill-hours-after-disclosing)
There is a possibility that "December 2023" is only a place holder date. :palm:I don't know which option is more disturbing :o
Seen such before.
a) They don't actually have the chips at all, and are flat out lying, or
a) They don't actually have the chips at all, and are flat out lying, or
nooooooo why would anyone lie on the internet?
QuoteHow come Chinese suppliers don't run out of components? Is the CCP subsidising them or threatening to kick them out if they don't get all the chips first?Either:
a) They don't actually have the chips at all, and are flat out lying, or
b) they do have them, but the price they're trying to charge is so outrageously eye-watering that nobody buys them.
Try asking for a quote for the specific item you're after, you'll soon find out which is the case.
LCSC stock is probably genuine but I have my doubts about many of the distributors on Octopart - I think the amounts are just plausible ones to generate enquiries.I've been happy with the LCSC parts. Most of the semiconductors I get from them aren't ones in hot demand so are unlikely to be pulls / re-marked / sweepings / etc. They look like actual OEM parts, and they function as expected.
I have my doubts about many of the distributors on Octopart - I think the amounts are just plausible ones to generate enquiries.As I've mentioned, many times when I search OctoPart or FindChips I see several "brokers" listing the exact same oddball quantity of a given part. For example, they will have 323 pieces of a certain connector. That's not a standard boxed quantity, AFAIK there's nothing special about such a number.
* One actually has stock and the others are running a script that copies that number, figuring if they get the order they'll buy it from the first brokerWithout implying whether it's good or bad, that's a pretty standard Chinese entrepreneurial approach.
Today's speculation: https://www.reuters.com/technology/global-manufacturers-see-chip-shortage-easing-2022-07-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/technology/global-manufacturers-see-chip-shortage-easing-2022-07-21/)That must be where all of the allocation from us smaller companies are going, as the situation seems to be worsening again for us :(
The 7 series (Zynq, Artix-7, etc.) is TSMC 28nm, and whilst it's not exactly in vast supply, you can get parts easily enough. :phew:
Today's speculation: https://www.reuters.com/technology/global-manufacturers-see-chip-shortage-easing-2022-07-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/technology/global-manufacturers-see-chip-shortage-easing-2022-07-21/)
said he expected a slowdown in inflation, with commodities prices going down and interest rate hikes by central banks taking effect.
For definitions of "easily enough" that include:
And now, bank runs in China, met with tanks!Tanks to protect Banks. That's some rhyming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhZOhEgXtQk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhZOhEgXtQk)
How come Chinese suppliers don't run out of components? Is the CCP subsidising them or threatening to kick them out if they don't get all the chips first?
LOL: https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005004207576314.html (https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005004207576314.html)
Microchip would have been good because of firmware/IDE compatibility, but Microchip is a dead company. TI and STM - no vendor credibility left either. Renensas or Espressif - maybe.People keep talking as if there are other MCU manufacturers that are easier to get stock of, but as far as I've seen the situation is the same across all. I see little point in changing because there's no guarantees that you'll fare any better. The best option is to try to find a similar part from the same manufacturer that you might be able to port to with the least aggravation. The supply crunch won't last forever.
... but I know so far we've designed out a fair few TI parts because even if we went to brokers we couldn't get the higher quantities we need for production...
LEAKED: Toyota suspends LandCruiser 70 orders in AustraliaAccording to our dealer, we got one of the very last Toyota Sienna Hybrids before they shut down the production line in Indiana. It took us 9+ months to get ours, and corporate won't let dealers even accept new orders. Toyota is so short on IC's that they're making triage-like decisions about their product line. Apparently there are enough sensors and other things in a minivan that they can build several "regular" cars instead. So they'd rather ship more volume, and tick off fewer customers, by allocating what electronics they have to sedans and such. More Corollas and no Siennas, at least for a while.
...Our dealer said demand for Siennas is so high that we could pull out of the dealership and immediately sell it for $5-10K more than we paid - no more "lose value when you drive it off the lot".
Texas Instruments has been :bullshit:'ing to the media that the chip shortage is easing. Go to the TI website. All you will see is their "Notify me when available" on pretty much everything. You won't find much of anything from TI at Digikey.
... but I know so far we've designed out a fair few TI parts because even if we went to brokers we couldn't get the higher quantities we need for production...
That is why TI is going to suffer long term. Disgruntled customers are not going to design "back in" TI parts if the company ever gets its act together. TI's website is full of "Notify me when available" :bullshit:. They really need a new CEO and a new approach to how they look after customers and distributors.
No apology, no mention of any issues.
The opposite in fact, 'check out these new ICs' (that you can't buy) and 'sign up for our product emails'
4 cartridges were ordered on 15. 05. 2022 and 3 of them were delivered on 04. 08. 2022. They are OK and working. The 25mm flat blade will be delivered much later probably.
I don't know, but in case people haven't noticed yet, shortages are not just for semiconductors anymore these days.It's not just semiconductors, it's not even just electronics in general. As I believe I've mentioned here, we have a brand new project that is a full two years late to production because it involves hydraulics and the hydraulics industry imploded in early 2020 much like the automobile industry did. When we started this project I nearly choked on their industry-standard leadtimes of 6-8 weeks, since I was used to getting basically any electronic component in a matter of days (ah, those were the days). But by late 2020 the quotes from the hydraulics industry, for everyday things like pumps and motors, was (verbatim quote) "26 weeks and no promises". It's since extended to 30+ weeks on some things.
There isn't really much of a way out of a problem like this, short of a recession.A recession isn't really a "way out". A recession is like an amputation... you didn't correct the root problem, you just reduced demand on the body's resources to a new point of equilibrium. But, you know, there's that whole missing limb thing.
any further automation in jobs will almost certainly be seen to be "taking jobs away from hardworking families" etc. so it's political poison.That's how some politicians spin it, yes. But automation is inevitable on basically every level. Already we have technologies that cannot be done manually (IC fabrication is a great example), growth in such industries has been and will be based on automation with only a modest increase in human employment. EV's will eventually reduce blue-collar employment from the factory to the small-town garage because EV's have fewer individual components and simply don't require the same amount of maintenance. That's a GOOD thing for countless reasons, but the bottom line is fewer jobs for an increasing population. I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader as to the "proper" response for that inevitable change in our socio-economic structure.
Bank of England just forecast a deep recession. RBC, Canada's biggest bank recently forecast a 12% decline in national benchmark home price.
I think these people are usually optimistic.
Recessions are starting, demand will likely decrease. Central banks are still pumping up their intetest rates. I think they want to get them up asap so they have room to drop them once recessions hit.
This could lead to people buying phones computers, tvs, etc less often. Which of course could lead to a massive reduction in demand for components.
I highly recommend Steve Saretsky's channel on youtube. That's where I get half this info.
Bank of England just forecast a deep recession. RBC, Canada's biggest bank recently forecast a 12% decline in national benchmark home price.
I think these people are usually optimistic.
Recessions are starting, demand will likely decrease. Central banks are still pumping up their intetest rates. I think they want to get them up asap so they have room to drop them once recessions hit.
This could lead to people buying phones computers, tvs, etc less often. Which of course could lead to a massive reduction in demand for components.
I highly recommend Steve Saretsky's channel on youtube. That's where I get half this info.
Of course, it's possible that these hair-on-fire muppets could be wrong. It would be a shame to see people squander their happiness and lives by sitting still and clutching their pearls.
Upon second glance I'm wondering if you were saying Steve is the muppet. I've been watching his videos for years and he has been surprisingly accurate. His hair is only on fire about half the time. Either way, I think the main value is just his summaries of what the bankers are saying and doing and that is all easily verifiable.
Upon second glance I'm wondering if you were saying Steve is the muppet. I've been watching his videos for years and he has been surprisingly accurate. His hair is only on fire about half the time. Either way, I think the main value is just his summaries of what the bankers are saying and doing and that is all easily verifiable.
Don't know Steve. But I do know this. All you need is a swift change of govt and even unanimous outlooks go out the window, with everyone's money.
Upon second glance I'm wondering if you were saying Steve is the muppet. I've been watching his videos for years and he has been surprisingly accurate. His hair is only on fire about half the time. Either way, I think the main value is just his summaries of what the bankers are saying and doing and that is all easily verifiable.
Don't know Steve. But I do know this. All you need is a swift change of govt and even unanimous outlooks go out the window, with everyone's money.
A new leader might kick the can a little further down the road but it's hard to see a decent way out of this much debt without a reduction in demand.
Upon second glance I'm wondering if you were saying Steve is the muppet. I've been watching his videos for years and he has been surprisingly accurate. His hair is only on fire about half the time. Either way, I think the main value is just his summaries of what the bankers are saying and doing and that is all easily verifiable.
Don't know Steve. But I do know this. All you need is a swift change of govt and even unanimous outlooks go out the window, with everyone's money.
A new leader might kick the can a little further down the road but it's hard to see a decent way out of this much debt without a reduction in demand.
Kicking the can down the road works fine while ever there is road ahead. The trick for our leaders is not to be the coyote when road runner swerves.
Upon second glance I'm wondering if you were saying Steve is the muppet. I've been watching his videos for years and he has been surprisingly accurate. His hair is only on fire about half the time. Either way, I think the main value is just his summaries of what the bankers are saying and doing and that is all easily verifiable.
Don't know Steve. But I do know this. All you need is a swift change of govt and even unanimous outlooks go out the window, with everyone's money.
A new leader might kick the can a little further down the road but it's hard to see a decent way out of this much debt without a reduction in demand.
Kicking the can down the road works fine while ever there is road ahead. The trick for our leaders is not to be the coyote when road runner swerves.
Would you say high inflation = road runner swerving?
They are often wrong and usually delayed. A couple years ago bank of Canada was saying interest rates would be very low for a very long time, near zero to end of 2023. Now they have raised rates at record pace, long after inflation took off.
Upon second glance I'm wondering if you were saying Steve is the muppet. I've been watching his videos for years and he has been surprisingly accurate. His hair is only on fire about half the time. Either way, I think the main value is just his summaries of what the bankers are saying and doing and that is all easily verifiable.
Don't know Steve. But I do know this. All you need is a swift change of govt and even unanimous outlooks go out the window, with everyone's money.
A new leader might kick the can a little further down the road but it's hard to see a decent way out of this much debt without a reduction in demand.
Kicking the can down the road works fine while ever there is road ahead. The trick for our leaders is not to be the coyote when road runner swerves.
Would you say high inflation = road runner swerving?
It's the ducking and weaving that will ultimately cost you.
You posted earlier:QuoteThey are often wrong and usually delayed. A couple years ago bank of Canada was saying interest rates would be very low for a very long time, near zero to end of 2023. Now they have raised rates at record pace, long after inflation took off.
So anyone who took out a loan with the bank on that premise expected, as did the bank, that they could afford interest payments based on the expectation of their own rate rise forecast. Was the bank wrong or did they con people?
I'd say making such a strong statement during such turbulent times was at least wrong, maybe also a con.
I'd say making such a strong statement during such turbulent times was at least wrong, maybe also a con.
But whose fault is it? The conner or the conned?
You can't have continuous growth.except oil companies
What chip shortage? TI second quarter 2022 financial results (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ti-reports-second-quarter-2022-financial-results-and-shareholder-returns-301593692.html) revenue $5.21B, up 14%. Looks like an all time high.
As I say, "money fallin' from the sky yet chips are in short supply" is non sequitur with this "shortage" narrative. They're just going to select big fish.
Chipmakers like TI are entirely about profit and return to shareholders. And notifying customers "no chips for you, small fish".
You could better ask your distributor why they did not order more chips perhaps they would receive shipment this year.
There will be new kinds of jobs. That always has been the case with new technology. Like the law of preservation of energy, there is the law of preservation of jobs. Look at the kind of jobs and shops that didn't exist 25 years ago.any further automation in jobs will almost certainly be seen to be "taking jobs away from hardworking families" etc. so it's political poison.That's how some politicians spin it, yes. But automation is inevitable on basically every level. Already we have technologies that cannot be done manually (IC fabrication is a great example), growth in such industries has been and will be based on automation with only a modest increase in human employment. EV's will eventually reduce blue-collar employment from the factory to the small-town garage because EV's have fewer individual components and simply don't require the same amount of maintenance. That's a GOOD thing for countless reasons, but the bottom line is fewer jobs for an increasing population. I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader as to the "proper" response for that inevitable change in our socio-economic structure.
So anyone who took out a loan with the bank on that premise expected, as did the bank, that they could afford interest payments based on the expectation of their own rate rise forecast. Was the bank wrong or did they con people?It depends on what kind of interest rate the bank used to determine wether people can pay the interest. It would be foolish if they used the exceptionally low interest rate unless the interest rate is fixed until the mortgage is paid in full.
What chip shortage? TI second quarter 2022 financial results (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ti-reports-second-quarter-2022-financial-results-and-shareholder-returns-301593692.html) revenue $5.21B, up 14%. Looks like an all time high.
As I say, "money fallin' from the sky yet chips are in short supply" is non sequitur with this "shortage" narrative. They're just going to select big fish.
Chipmakers like TI are entirely about profit and return to shareholders. And notifying customers "no chips for you, small fish".
Perhaps those chips are going to the companies that are already waiting for them for quite some time. Most companies have ongoing contracts for supply of ten thousands to million chips per year.
They only negotiate the price every year and part of that is delivery on time or penalties shall be paid. Ofcourse covid was an onforseen disaster that will forfeit said penalties, but now production is starting up again the chipcompanies have to fullfill their immense list of outstanding orders.
So unless you already had a reservation for your chips going back to 2020 you will have to wait.
You could better ask your distributor why they did not order more chips perhaps they would receive shipment this year.
Chipmakers like TI are entirely about profit and return to shareholders.
Wall Street's greed needs to end. It just destroys companies, industries. Imagine an ocean with only sharks swimming around...
It's been publicly disclosed that semiconductor manufacturers are very cautious about oversupplying the market. Inventory costs money, they do not want to pump a load in and find it sitting in warehouses for 12-18 months as they will have to pay for it. Hence they are cautiously bringing online new capacity.
TSMC warns an invasion of the island would render its factory inoperable, devastating global supply and mentions Ukraine war causing world shortages as example.
The latest: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/north-american-production-chip-shortage/ (https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/north-american-production-chip-shortage/)
it looks like things are getting worse in NA: Last week they had 3 times more cuts than they've had on an average week in 2022.What? In the last week the media here was jam-packed with celebrations of job growth.
it looks like things are getting worse in NA: Last week they had 3 times more cuts than they've had on an average week in 2022.What? In the last week the media here was jam-packed with celebrations of job growth.
As Dire Straits said, "One of them must be wrong."
EDIT: Here's the top of a Google search: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-unemployment-rate-fall-35-2022-08-05/ (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-unemployment-rate-fall-35-2022-08-05/)
Sometimes I think that's the actual job of the media: Create fodder for both sides so the arguing never ends.
Sometimes? :-DDSometimes I think that's the actual job of the media: Create fodder for both sides so the arguing never ends.
Say it isn't true!
CCP encircles and making noise on the sea at Taiwain and now dictates it will not tolerate separatists!
So as CCP invades Taiwan will US retaliate by blasting TSMC while shouting "no chip for you".....Weeell it's plausible in this current loony world.
If they do invade, they'll pay a steep price to take a pile of useless rubble.
If they do invade, they'll pay a steep price to take a pile of useless rubble. Without supplies and maintenance support from the West, ownership of TSMC won't do them any good, even if the key personnel remain and are either willing or forced to do business as usual.
...Then you have the input products: Japan supplies a film that almost no one else makes, essential for device production...
Mind you, what excuse does Microchip have?
Does this mean we should start hoarding chips now? >:D
CCP encircles and making noise on the sea at Taiwain and now dictates it will not tolerate separatists!They cannot realistically invade, their army is too small for that. And that's not a hyperbole. You needed thousands of landing ships for a successful landing operation in WW2, and with the current anti-ship weaponry, you likely need even more.
So as CCP invades Taiwan will US retaliate by blasting TSMC while shouting "no chip for you".....Weeell it's plausible in this current loony world.
Sure China's invasion is not the only way things could go sour. A small new virus could very well get us there as well.
Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.
Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.
Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.
Just goes to show: Nationalism is expensive.
Furthermore, environmentalism is a very uncomfortable and strange bedfellow with globalism
Yeah, I had the choice last year to injection mould a part in China or locally. The mould was made there, because frankly, they do it better. It's a ~600KG shipment. I choose to make it here, it's an automated process, the price difference is not that much.Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.
Just goes to show: Nationalism is expensive.
You could use the same argument to say "Nationalism isn't as expensive as globalism".
Using locally-produced products isn't automatically nationalism or protectionism, or necessarily more expensive.
When fuel and transport costs increase, naturally there is a move towards localised production as the balance weighs in favour one way or the other.
Furthermore, environmentalism is a very uncomfortable and strange bedfellow with globalism: for example, shipping goods across the planet is hardly environmentally friendly, and neither is greenwashing your local carbon footprint into someone else's backyard.
For example, latest released data by EurostatYeah, I think most of us is looking for a very uncomfortable meeting about our salary with our boss.
Just goes to show: Nationalism is expensive.Nah, nationalism isn't expensive. It just optimizes things differently than "globalism", JIT, etc.
China Attacks US Chip Handouts While Warning of Market Slowdown (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/china-attacks-us-chip-handouts-while-warning-of-market-slowdown (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/china-attacks-us-chip-handouts-while-warning-of-market-slowdown)) :popcorn:
China Attacks US Chip Handouts While Warning of Market Slowdown (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/china-attacks-us-chip-handouts-while-warning-of-market-slowdown (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/china-attacks-us-chip-handouts-while-warning-of-market-slowdown)) :popcorn:
Link paywalled :--
Link paywalled :--
didnt EU lost battle over solar panels due to Chinese government subsidies
cheap overproduction clear concurrence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clW6MaeVKTU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clW6MaeVKTU)
They're not falling behind - there are limits doing acquisitions and theft and copying. Semi manufacturing actually requires skill and knowledge and tools they don't have.
Despite all the money spent by the chinese government, they don't have the results.
Early July, Xi is asking "Why is the IC still facing a bottleneck after 8 years of investment of 200 billion RMB?"
It's led to china is investigating at least 6-9 executives for corruption with the state-backed semiconductor "big fund". There is a huge problem with corruption in their semi fund.
Just goes to show: Nationalism is expensive.Nah, nationalism isn't expensive. It just optimizes things differently than "globalism", JIT, etc.
Pick the business model and associated risks with which you're comfortable, and commit. Then hope you guessed correctly!
Yeah, I had the choice last year to injection mould a part in China or locally. The mould was made there, because frankly, they do it better. It's a ~600KG shipment. I choose to make it here, it's an automated process, the price difference is not that much.And there are new problems at the horizon: China has severe water shortages and high temperatures so they can't run their power plants at full capacity while needing lots of power (for running airconditioning). The power shortage also causes shutdowns of factories.
If I would've choose to make it there, then our production line would've shut down due to the extreme lockdown.
Just goes to show: Nationalism is expensive.Nah, nationalism isn't expensive. It just optimizes things differently than "globalism", JIT, etc.
Pick the business model and associated risks with which you're comfortable, and commit. Then hope you guessed correctly!
"Law of comparative advantage" would indicate that it is indeed expensive. But it is rapidly becoming de rigeur, nevertheless.
The funny thing is that the freight of goods from China is as high as ever, so it is a good question if globalism has just gone "off radar" rather than disappearing...
China is basically USSRThat is the same M.O. that is being attempted to be applied in the US and in many other western countries, with the difference that not relatives but activists in place of scientists, law makers, judges, etc. |O
at some point USSR was better than USA in computing and stuff. then corruption, relatives in place of scientists, ...
technology is made by people (not money nor headlines)
China is basically USSR
at some point USSR was better than USA in computing and stuff. then corruption, relatives in place of scientists, ...
technology is made by people (not money nor headlines)
USSR was a totally centrally planned economy, everything based on central planning. China seems to be combining elements of long term planning with elements of capitalism... it does seem a more successful mix than the USSR ever was?In our travels to both countries, the symptoms of a centrally planned economy are visible everywhere. One of the most obvious characteristics is how manufacturing/sourcing of particular categories of goods are centralized into one city or region. That's still mostly true in China despite their attempts to mix in some free enterprise. For example, the Ningbo region has the lion's share of hydraulics and similar manufacturing. Shenzhen/Guangdong Province is the clear center of electronics. One of the cities is their finance capital (can't remember which right now), another is textiles, etc. They may be blurring the lines a bit from the past but even today if you seek sources of a specific product from China, the companies that produce those products are almost always clustered in a common geographic region. Once you know where one is, you know where most of them will be.
USSR was a totally centrally planned economy, everything based on central planning. China seems to be combining elements of long term planning with elements of capitalism... it does seem a more successful mix than the USSR ever was?In our travels to both countries, the symptoms of a centrally planned economy are visible everywhere. One of the most obvious characteristics is how manufacturing/sourcing of particular categories of goods are centralized into one city or region. That's still mostly true in China despite their attempts to mix in some free enterprise. For example, the Ningbo region has the lion's share of hydraulics and similar manufacturing. Shenzhen/Guangdong Province is the clear center of electronics. One of the cities is their finance capital (can't remember which right now), another is textiles, etc. They may be blurring the lines a bit from the past but even today if you seek sources of a specific product from China, the companies that produce those products are almost always clustered in a common geographic region. Once you know where one is, you know where most of them will be.
My wife's travels in Russia revealed the same thing. Regions are still largely devoted to a formerly assigned activity.
This structure may yield some efficiencies but it's very fault INtolerant, as recently demonstrated with China's "zero COVID" regional lockdowns. Exports of entire product segments slowed to a trickle depending upon which region was locked down at the moment. We experienced this firsthand. We had samples of a certain kind of pump ordered from three potential vendors so we could qualify multiple suppliers. A "zero COVID" lockdown hit the region and two of the vendors simply shut down. We continued communicating with their staff from their apartments via email and WeChat but they were quite candid, saying "we have no idea when we will be allowed back to the factory and cannot say when we can ship the prototypes". Fortunately in this specific case one of the three potential vendors was barely outside the "zone" and was able to ship on time. But this really sensitized us to how a regional "problem", COVID or otherwise, could turn off exports of entire categories of products overnight.
Caveat emptor!
Just designing in parts that are available...That changes on a daily basis. Unless you're revising your designs quite frequently or are building small volumes, it's not practical to redesign based on the latest searches on OctoPart or FindChips.
making sure we buy enough stock. Going to brokers for some components as neededOur products stay pretty stable for years and we ship hundreds of units per month so we can't redesign to match Purchasing's latest treasure hunt. So we've been contributing to the problem by prestocking single sourced items. It sucks, but it has kept the production line running. We backorder our customers far, far more often than we'd like but they are very understanding and we keep them updated in near real time. They, too, have started prestocking OUR products as buffers against our own delays. The ripple effect is real, in both directions.
That changes on a daily basis. Unless you're revising your designs quite frequently or are building small volumes, it's not practical to redesign based on the latest searches on OctoPart or FindChips.
At this point Microchip might as well just put a :-// emoji in their lead times on Microchip Direct. Every time I place an order I receive an update 2 days later that has pushed the delivery date back by ~6 months from their online indication. This is despite being enrolled in PSP. Infuriatingly, Microchip Direct still lists the earlier lead time...
At this point Microchip might as well just put a :-// emoji in their lead times on Microchip Direct. Every time I place an order I receive an update 2 days later that has pushed the delivery date back by ~6 months from their online indication. This is despite being enrolled in PSP. Infuriatingly, Microchip Direct still lists the earlier lead time...
really? we are not in PSP and received parts more or less on time so far (give or take 2 weeks)Some lead times are definitely improving but others are getting worse. As I'm sure everybody here knows, the frustration is trying to plan around lead times that jump around by 26 weeks after the order is placed!
I wonder if PSP does something other than displaying a more hopeful date :D i.e. 26wks instead of 52wks
So we've been contributing to the problem by prestocking single sourced items.
...
[Our customers], too, have started prestocking OUR products as buffers against our own delays. The ripple effect is real, in both directions.
Economy goes up, economy goes down... relax, it always recovers!
Economy goes up, economy goes down... relax, it always recovers!
Economy goes up, economy goes down... relax, it always recovers!
You can relax if it doesn't affect you. I'm glad it doesn't seem to be the case for you.
I can confirm that as an SME we are vetoing TI parts in new designs due to their behaviour. It's going to cost them a fortune in the long run. I would not be surprised if the Pareto principle applies for electronics. Something like 80% of demand is from the 20% smallest companies. The USA is built on small business; so is much of Europe. Very bad decision by TI. But it's a free market, so let them destroy their reputation if they so wish.
Something like 80% of demand is from the 20% smallest companies.
I suspect it is simple: the big auto OEMs (& so on) have simply bid much more for the parts, and in a volatile market, Digi-Key and other distributors do not want to buy in stock at prices that might vary week by week.
I am just guessing that SMEs are a significant part of the industry.Maybe not in size or revenue, but they (and i would dare include us) are significant or essential as their role in the whole chain.
No, it is actually very simple. Manufacturerers and their representatives (at least the ones I met back in my day) don't talk to small customers.That has not been my experience, at least pre-COVID. Let me cite three examples.
Perhaps I should rephrase, I was not talking about technical support.
I was talking about sales meetings taking days to get to the lowest price as possible for millions of pieces of multiple components, you commit to buy in coming year(s).
Those people fly in and stay for the negotiations. Those people do not take your phone call if it is not a million$ deal. They don't negotiate for tens of thousands of pieces, they are just not interested.
Those are the deals car manufacturers, mass product companies etc. make and they are the 60% steady income generating business they don't want to loose. And those deals are hard and tough and go down to get the last cent off on a component.
Perhaps I should rephrase, I was not talking about technical support.
I was talking about sales meetings taking days to get to the lowest price as possible for millions of pieces of multiple components, you commit to buy in coming year(s).
Those people fly in and stay for the negotiations. Those people do not take your phone call if it is not a million$ deal. They don't negotiate for tens of thousands of pieces, they are just not interested.
Those are the deals car manufacturers, mass product companies etc. make and they are the 60% steady income generating business they don't want to loose. And those deals are hard and tough and go down to get the last cent off on a component.
Except the car manufacturers are hating life, too. Maybe not as badly as we are, but even if you order a new Porsche, you will get a long list of excuses regarding why you won't be able to get the memory feature for your steering column, or the Bose stereo, or (for that matter) why you will have to wait months longer than usual for what you do receive. Mass-market manufacturers like Ford and GM still have vehicles sitting in parking lots by the tens of thousands, while their dealer lots have a fraction of their usual inventory.
I don't understand where all the parts are going. I understand where the ones at DigiKey and Mouser are going -- they're snapped up by Chinese brokers the minute they hit the shelves. But that wouldn't work for them if availability were anywhere close to normal, and it's been working for a couple of years now.
And where are all the chips that would normally be going to Russia?
The only guess I can come up with is that there is a massive defense buildup going on that is somehow flying under the press's radar. Dies that would have gone into industrial, commercial, and automotive packaging are now going into military packaging. But... by the millions? :-//
I don't understand where all the parts are going.
I heard a truly ridiculous conspiracy theory the other day, that "they" want inflation and are therefore artificially choking all the supply lines of pretty much anything they can, to make prices go up.
The only guess I can come up with is that there is a massive defense buildup going on that is somehow flying under the press's radar. Dies that would have gone into industrial, commercial, and automotive packaging are now going into military packaging. But... by the millions? :-//
The only guess I can come up with is that there is a massive defense buildup going on that is somehow flying under the press's radar. Dies that would have gone into industrial, commercial, and automotive packaging are now going into military packaging. But... by the millions? :-//
There may be some truth to it...kind of
https://www.ept.ca/2022/09/china-demands-us-drop-tech-export-curbs-after-nvidia-warning/ (https://www.ept.ca/2022/09/china-demands-us-drop-tech-export-curbs-after-nvidia-warning/)
A broker I trust told me recently that pretty much everything is available for a sufficient premium. Interpret that as you will, but it implies the parts ARE out there.
When a part is new pretty much anyone with a useful input to make gets serious attention from its primary vendor. They need to catch and correct any problems as quickly a possible, before a huge pile of buggy devices have been produced. They would go broke putting the same resources into every query about a mature and trusted product.No, it is actually very simple. Manufacturerers and their representatives (at least the ones I met back in my day) don't talk to small customers.That has not been my experience, at least pre-COVID. Let me cite three examples.
I was working with a VERY small startup in Spokane WA (not a technology mecca whatsoever), under 10 employees, with zero history of shipping anything yet. We were running into some trouble with a then-new high speed opamp. The IC vendor had one of their Application Engineers travel to our laughably ramshackle "office" and he sat at our bench, using our ancient scraped-together T&M equipment, and sorted out the problems.
A broker I trust told me recently that pretty much everything is available for a sufficient premium. Interpret that as you will, but it implies the parts ARE out there.
A broker I trust told me recently that pretty much everything is available for a sufficient premium. Interpret that as you will, but it implies the parts ARE out there.
That has certainly been my experience.
A broker I trust told me recently that pretty much everything is available for a sufficient premium. Interpret that as you will, but it implies the parts ARE out there.Well, of course they are available for a sufficient price. Talk to a big customer with a good flow of parts, but low margins. They'll be happy to shut down production and sell on their parts for a good price.
A broker I trust told me recently that pretty much everything is available for a sufficient premium. Interpret that as you will, but it implies the parts ARE out there.
A broker I trust told me recently that pretty much everything is available for a sufficient premium. Interpret that as you will, but it implies the parts ARE out there.
All in all, recessions are crap but rarely devastating for engineering. For 2008, the statistic was 1 in 11 engineers out of work, which is "bad" but that's something that can be managed. (Especially if you look at general unemployment being about 1 in 25, to put that figure in perspective.) Either have a good emergency fund and ride it out, or have an insurance policy that can pay out (though these tend to be expensive for contractors.)In the recession of the early 90s things were so bad in the UK that even the recruiters ended up with no jobs. I'm not sure how long that persisted. I gave up on the UK and moved out at that point. People told me it just went on and on. One of the reasons things didn't look so bad for engineering in the UK in downturns after that was so few people were joining the industry that the average age started to climb, and the ever more limited jobs were recruiting from an ever more limited pool.
If you're in the design business, have you found yourself short of work lately? What are you doing to pass the time until - we presume - the supply chain starts to recover?
What will you do if it doesn't?
If electronics dries up, I'll focus on renovating my home(s). I probably should have focused on housing years ago but it's hard giving up this electronics career that I've put 20 years into.Don't forget the toll that construction - even remodeling - takes on your body. My wife used to manage a construction company and said they had 40YO's that had the bodies of 70-80YO's. Creaky, in pain all the time, etc. My wife and I have done a lot of remodeling in our own homes but I'd not intentionally prioritize that over "indoor work with no heavy lifting".
If electronics dries up, I'll focus on renovating my home(s). I probably should have focused on housing years ago but it's hard giving up this electronics career that I've put 20 years into.Don't forget the toll that construction - even remodeling - takes on your body. My wife used to manage a construction company and said they had 40YO's that had the bodies of 70-80YO's. Creaky, in pain all the time, etc. My wife and I have done a lot of remodeling in our own homes but I'd not intentionally prioritize that over "indoor work with no heavy lifting".
On the other hand, we have a close friend who is a serial house flipper. He was doing that long before it became "cool". Does one house at a time, sells it, and buys the next. He absolutely loves it. He's in his 50's now but still going strong. Do what you love!
I do get sore from home renos but sitting all day is worse for me. Too much of either is not good. Ideally I'll be able to go back and forth at my leisure or at the whims of the markets.Agreed. I don't sit well for long periods, not because of physical problems but because I need the variety! My primary lab is here at home, so I enjoy the ability to "run upstairs" every 30-60 minutes for whatever reason. Drinks, snacks, bathroom, UPS/FedEx at the door... lots of opportunities to keep moving all day.
The PACE 1130-0532-p1 flat blade tip was ordered on 15/5/2022 and still not delievered from Farnell.It is still the same on 17/09/2022. There is a notice:
Your order is on back order, awaiting further stock.
6.9, should be pretty mild by standards in that region??
There's really very little second-source in the IC industry full stop. Outside of jellybean logic and common analog parts, common pinouts and packages are rare.We used to have extensive multiple sourcing of semiconductor parts. Key customers demanded it. When they stopped demanding it, the practice died. Defence and telecoms becoming a smaller part of the market probably had a lot to do with that,
I'd really like organisations like JEDEC to come up with some common pinouts and packages. For instance, here's the package for a 4x4mm buck converter with a figure-of-merit power (Vin*Iout) not exceeding 50W, it has enable pin, power good pin, feedback pin etc.
Then manufacturers would be able to compete on individual lines - TI could offer an 18V, 2A converter in that package, Linear could offer a 30V, 1A converter, there might be some variations in switch frequency and feedback voltage but with some minimal effort you could build a product that could have one of many different manufacturer parts fitted.
I suspect this won't happen because TI and the likes love vendor lock in -- it benefits them even when supplies are short. But one can dream!
There's really very little second-source in the IC industry full stop. Outside of jellybean logic and common analog parts, common pinouts and packages are rare.
I'd really like organisations like JEDEC to come up with some common pinouts and packages. For instance, here's the package for a 4x4mm buck converter with a figure-of-merit power (Vin*Iout) not exceeding 50W, it has enable pin, power good pin, feedback pin etc.
Then manufacturers would be able to compete on individual lines - TI could offer an 18V, 2A converter in that package, Linear could offer a 30V, 1A converter, there might be some variations in switch frequency and feedback voltage but with some minimal effort you could build a product that could have one of many different manufacturer parts fitted.
I suspect this won't happen because TI and the likes love vendor lock in -- it benefits them even when supplies are short. But one can dream!
I suspect this won't happen because TI and the likes love vendor lock in -- it benefits them even when supplies are short. But one can dream!
Any updates on the effect of the recent earthquakes in Taiwan on semiconductor delivery?
Car manufacturers like Ford still do suffer, even today.
40K vehicles stuck idling in warehouse is definitely hurt, a lot. :scared:
It might well be regulations for automakers, but on the other hand even common household appliances seem to have an extremely long leadtime, at least around where I live in the US. Several friends that had to replace large appliances (dishwasher, clothes washer or drier) and even HVAC condenser/evaporator coil combos had to wait for 3/4 months to get their equipment installed.
There is a choke on the system somewhere that is quite unclear to me...
Could be anything. Cars are regulatory nightmares. If they can't get an AEC-Q100 approved LDO for some ECU that's important to the driveline, then no car for you.
Earlier in the year it was reported Ford was driving individual trucks off the assembly line by using a few spare engine controllers, whilst they waited for the final parts to come in.
It might well be regulations for automakers, but on the other hand even common household appliances seem to have an extremely long leadtime, at least around where I live in the US.
They never specify what parts are missing.
A possible issue might be that if orders are cancelled or demand drops significantly that outstanding production orders will also be cancelled.The behaviour of semiconductor downturns is fairly well understood, as there have been a lot of them. Surviving a large downturn has a lot to do with predicting the downturn well enough to NOT produce in excess. Excessive stock can be a financial disaster, and has doomed many companies. Most of it eventually ends up in landfill, as so many of the high volume parts have a narrow market window, and nobody wants them once the market picks up again.
In other words some chips might not be made at all. :-//
Not sure I can see circumstances under which the world suddenly decides it doesn't want STM32F4xxx ever again. Or all those TI voltage regulators and op-amps I've designed in over the years.
The latest pain we have is sourcing MEMS/silicon oscillators. Seems most are on 52+ week lead times.
Mmkay, so are Vigor yet another asian scammer or do they actually have a stock? E.g stock on STM32H7 are stunningly high! While LCSC most of the time have none!
I've asked them for a quote for some FPGAs. Watch this space.
I have no direct experience with Vigor. But it's a well-established company in Singapore which seems over 40 years old. I doubt it's a scam.
Not sure about the reality of their stocks. It's a wholesale distributor, so you can only get an idea by asking for quotes.
But if it's not them, it's others. There *are* millions of parts out there, mainly from asian distributors. Some of which we probably don't have access to. Millions of products are being manufactured. Those have components inside. They do not come out of people's asses.
Lets compare with Octopart, all reputable dists have 0 and all scam brokers like Winsource have various amount, e.g 30 000 units. ::) while Vigor or LCSC not even mentioned by octopart.
https://octopart.com/search?q=stm32h750vbt6¤cy=USD&specs=0 (https://octopart.com/search?q=stm32h750vbt6¤cy=USD&specs=0)
Sorry, LCSC got on the bandwagon in the last year "to be rich and glorious" by skyrocketing prices for hard-to-get parts they already had in stock. As a result, they are no longer reputable.That's not what I've experienced of late. Yes, some parts have attracted a premium but others are still quite competitive, even when hard to get elsewhere.
Sorry, LCSC got on the bandwagon in the last year "to be rich and glorious" by skyrocketing prices for hard-to-get parts they already had in stock. As a result, they are no longer reputable.Yes i know LCSC rigging prices. However if looking closely they "seams" to rig on "particular products" who hit a certain stock levels and not on everything.
I'm pretty sure there must be asian distributors we, as westerners, have practically no access to.
I'm pretty sure there must be asian distributors we, as westerners, have practically no access to.There are a few, like WPI, which you encounter just as often as Avnet and Arrow in East Asia, but few outside Asia have heard of.
I'm pretty sure there must be asian distributors we, as westerners, have practically no access to.
No doubt.
Let's see how the Iron Curtain of Protectionism that we're erecting at the moment works out for us in the long run.
We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.
“This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight,” an entrepreneur who tweets under the name
Lidang wrote in a thread translated by Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group.
“Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday,” Lidang explained.
“To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.
Quote:Quote“This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight,” an entrepreneur who tweets under the name
Lidang wrote in a thread translated by Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group.
“Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday,” Lidang explained.
“To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6 (https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6)
Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. :-DD
Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. :-DD
“To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.
Some random Chinese broker I never heard of, that our supply chain manager thought are excellent choice for these parts.We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.
And supplier of these reels was? :D
Some random Chinese broker I never heard of, that our supply chain manager thought are excellent choice for these parts.We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.
And supplier of these reels was? :D
I am entirely pissed off at our supply chain manager, since she undermined my promotion (and job in general) and she is completely unqualified for the job.Some random Chinese broker I never heard of, that our supply chain manager thought are excellent choice for these parts.We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.
And supplier of these reels was? :D
Don't be too hard on your supply chain manager, it must be a shit job this year. And next too :-\
It's a dangerous game that the US is playing here and will certainly accelerate China's investment in its own domestic semiconductor market, reducing dependence upon European and American IP and technology (RISC-V over ARM will be an interesting one to watch for instance). If China develops reliable EUV tech that will give an invasion of Taiwan a lower overall cost to China as losing TSMC may no longer be seen as devastating to their technology economy.Pretty much no chance of China [quickly] developing EUV (https://www.youtube.com/c/asianometry (https://www.youtube.com/c/asianometry) - quite a few videos that explain ASML's unassailable lead).
Apart from ASML, the other players in the market are Nikon/Canon - and there isn't much love lost between Japan and China - also their machines are somewhat behind ASML.
Quote:I wonder what is happening about the US owned and run fabs in China?Quote“This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight,” an entrepreneur who tweets under the name
Lidang wrote in a thread translated by Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group.
“Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday,” Lidang explained.
“To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6 (https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6)
Indeed - thanks.Apart from ASML, the other players in the market are Nikon/Canon - and there isn't much love lost between Japan and China - also their machines are somewhat behind ASML.
For EUV, only ASML have machines. Canon and Nikon stop at DUV.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html)
EUV (14nm light) isn't the only game in town, DUV (193/248nm) is the dominant technology.EUV is the only game in town for the finest geometries. DUV will never be replaced for the coarser geometries, as the equipment is a small fraction of the cost of EUV equipment, and its throughput is far higher. The current EUV equipment allows 3nm and 2nm chips to be made very cleanly, but its throughput is terrible. ASML is working hard on next generation equipment to push that throughput up.
Also, I don't think EUV has ever been shipped to mainland China and there is possibly an embargo.
Is news.com.au the only source for this? I've checked the UK papers and they are all obsessed with ministercide, but you'd think something of this import would make at least the footnotes. NYTimes has nothing either.
I'm guessing there is a plan to be a plan to grenade ASML's latest kit in Taiwan should there be an invasion.
TAIPEI/PALO ALTO, U.S. -- Apple has put on hold plans to use memory chips from China's Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) in its products, multiple sources told Nikkei Asia.
The move comes amid the latest round of U.S. export controls imposed against the Chinese tech sector and is a sign that Washington's crackdown is creating a chilling effect down the supply chain.
YMTC was also hit by the tighter export controls announced later the same day, aimed at China's broader chip sector. These new rules, among other restrictions, bar U.S. chip equipment makers from providing services or technical support that would help Chinese companies produce advanced chips.
YMTC's 128-layer memory chips fall under the scope of these rules.
Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. :-DD
Wouldn't China offer citizenship and other incentives to stay to such critical personnel, especially if they are ethnic Chinese ?
China's rules seem to indicate that only people with at least a little Chinese blood can become Chinese citizens. However, there appear to be people with no racial connection to any place within the area of modern China that have Chinese passports. One thing they don't support is dual citizenship.Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. :-DD
Wouldn't China offer citizenship and other incentives to stay to such critical personnel, especially if they are ethnic Chinese ?
7.) Restricts the ability of U.S. persons to support the development, or production, of
ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication “facilities” without a license
China's rules seem to indicate that only people with at least a little Chinese blood can become Chinese citizens. However, there appear to be people with no racial connection to any place within the area of modern China that have Chinese passports. One thing they don't support is dual citizenship.Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. :-DD
Wouldn't China offer citizenship and other incentives to stay to such critical personnel, especially if they are ethnic Chinese ?
The embargoes may also backfire. China could steal the IP and make their own. It is exactly what they did with advanced wind power electricity generators. They cyber hacked into an innovative US company that made the generators, stole the IP, and copying them at a lower price, sending the original US manufacturer bankrupt.
The embargoes may also backfire. China could steal the IP and make their own. It is exactly what they did with advanced wind power electricity generators. They cyber hacked into an innovative US company that made the generators, stole the IP, and copying them at a lower price, sending the original US manufacturer bankrupt.
Just an entertaining side note. Long time ago when wind power started to become a thing over here, suddenly a bunch of very curious visitors turned up at wind power sites. They all had a US passport. ;D
Where does this citizenship fantasy come from? I'd think countries have rules for granting and revoking citizenship. It is not a simple thing you do on a will.
This is what the press release says. Not a word about that :bullshit:Quote7.) Restricts the ability of U.S. persons to support the development, or production, of
ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication “facilities” without a license
Working without a license is not the same as losing citizenship, is it.
And the reality is the Taiwanese engineers, researchers, staff etc would be needed to run them and they would either refuse or they would sabotage work. .This is another fantasy. Last time i checkef, Taiwan was an island. Growing rice is great job but likely much less paid then being an engineer in semiconductor indistry.
How come none of them choose to lose their American citizenship ?
Be wary of (some of) these doomsday youtubers.
Be wary of (some of) these doomsday youtubers.
Which one?
This is another fantasy. Last time i checkef, Taiwan was an island. Growing rice is great job but likely much less paid then being an engineer in semiconductor indistry.
And by the way, stopping admitting foreign students to western Unis would be way more effective measure.They spend too much money to throw them out.
And by the way, stopping admitting foreign students to western Unis would be way more effective measure.They spend too much money to throw them out.
Ex-Qualcomm VP charged with fraud for hiding role in microchip startup the tech giant bought for $150 million
If convicted, the four charged each face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison; fines of $250,000 or twice their gain for the fraud charges.
On the subject of sabotage, here is an example of people thinking they can get away with serious crimes at work.We don't know that yet, it very clearly says "IF convicted".Quote from: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-qualcomm-vp-charged-with-fraud-for-hiding-role-in-microchip-startup-the-tech-giant-bought-for-150-million-11660237281Ex-Qualcomm VP charged with fraud for hiding role in microchip startup the tech giant bought for $150 millionQuote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-11/ex-qualcomm-vp-fraudIf convicted, the four charged each face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison; fines of $250,000 or twice their gain for the fraud charges.
On the subject of sabotage, here is an example of people thinking they can get away with serious crimes at work.We don't know that yet, it very clearly says "IF convicted".Quote from: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-qualcomm-vp-charged-with-fraud-for-hiding-role-in-microchip-startup-the-tech-giant-bought-for-150-million-11660237281Ex-Qualcomm VP charged with fraud for hiding role in microchip startup the tech giant bought for $150 millionQuote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-11/ex-qualcomm-vp-fraudIf convicted, the four charged each face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison; fines of $250,000 or twice their gain for the fraud charges.
We can only speak if crimes were made after the verdict.
BEIJING (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - Remember the global semiconductor shortage a few months ago? It’s over.
Now, quickly shrinking demand for consumer electronics is causing cancelled orders and unsold stockpiles at makers of integrated circuits including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC)
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) and Nvidia.
It’s a stark contrast with the disruptions that chip shortages caused for makers of autos, smartphones, computers and other goods that rely on the advanced electronic devices.
“This round of business sentiment is reversing so fast that chip designers were struggling to find production capacity only last year, but now they find chips won’t sell,” said analyst
Xie Ruifeng from semiconductor industry market research institute ICwise.
unsold stockpiles at makers of integrated circuits including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC)l]Since TSMC is a contract manufacturer of ICs, aren't the customers that use TSMC obligated to pay for the parts they had TSMC make for them? Or is this article just talking about stockpiles not delivered to the customer (at the customers request)? If I understand this, TSMC may be in trouble due to slowdown in orders, but that's not the same thing as TSMC having "unsold stockpiles" of already-manufactured chips.
You are basically right. TSMC makes nothing for itself. Everything they produce is as a direct result of an order. How could it be otherwise in pure contract manufacturing? Their issues would arise if a lot of customers went under before they could pay; they have over ordered raw materials in the expectation of high production (e.g. raw wafers); and if their fabs start aging through a period of low demand, and switch from high value fabs to low value fabs before they are amortised. Overall they are one of the riskiest positions in the industry, but not from problems of overstocked products they can't sell.unsold stockpiles at makers of integrated circuits including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC)l]Since TSMC is a contract manufacturer of ICs, aren't the customers that use TSMC obligated to pay for the parts they had TSMC make for them? Or is this article just talking about stockpiles not delivered to the customer (at the customers request)? If I understand this, TSMC may be in trouble due to slowdown in orders, but that's not the same thing as TSMC having "unsold stockpiles" of already-manufactured chips.
Saying this because a few days ago the minister of the Romanian defense has resigned, for the reason that he can not collaborate any longer with the Romanian president which is also the supreme commander of the Romanian army. The now resigned former minister was advocating for peace. Meanwhile, an elite USA attack division, 101 Screaming Eagles (about 5000 US military) are doing exercises in Romania, plus more NATO troops in Romania, from France. Romania has common border with Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia announced it finalized its first stage of general mobilization of 300 000 new recruits.
I didn't follow the news for a couple of weeks, and yesterday learned about the resignation of a minister that was advocating for peace, and today I learn about the calling home of US chip specialists. I'm very worried about all these.
Calling engineers back to USA doesn't make any sense, unless it was made as preparation for an imminent war.
Saying this because a few days ago the minister of the Romanian defense has resigned, for the reason that he can not collaborate any longer with the Romanian president which is also the supreme commander of the Romanian army. The now resigned former minister was advocating for peace. Meanwhile, an elite USA attack division, 101 Screaming Eagles (about 5000 US military) are doing exercises in Romania, plus more NATO troops in Romania, from France. Romania has common border with Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia announced it finalized its first stage of general mobilization of 300 000 new recruits.
I didn't follow the news for a couple of weeks, and yesterday learned about the resignation of a minister that was advocating for peace, and today I learn about the calling home of US chip specialists. I'm very worried about all these.
QuoteBEIJING (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - Remember the global semiconductor shortage a few months ago? It’s over.
For more than two weeks, Zhuo, who works on Foxconn’s iPhone assembly line in the Chinese city of Zhengzhou, was trapped inside the sprawling campus while the company battled a coronavirus outbreak in the middle of its peak production season.
As the plant instituted government instructions to seal itself off from the world in what is known as “closed loop” management, Zhuo, 19, watched co-workers get carted off to abandoned buildings repurposed as quarantine centers. The company pressured people back to work before it was clear they weren’t contagious.
On Friday, Zhuo decided to make a run for it. He climbed a seven-foot wall, ducked under a fence through a hole dug out by workers who fled before him and walked almost 15 miles before getting a ride from a passerby.
Besoz/CIA propaganda paper about Iphone workers fleeing the Apple crap factory in China.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/02/china-foxconn-iphone-factory-zhengzhou-covid/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/02/china-foxconn-iphone-factory-zhengzhou-covid/)QuoteFor more than two weeks, Zhuo, who works on Foxconn’s iPhone assembly line in the Chinese city of Zhengzhou, was trapped inside the sprawling campus while the company battled a coronavirus outbreak in the middle of its peak production season.
As the plant instituted government instructions to seal itself off from the world in what is known as “closed loop” management, Zhuo, 19, watched co-workers get carted off to abandoned buildings repurposed as quarantine centers. The company pressured people back to work before it was clear they weren’t contagious.
On Friday, Zhuo decided to make a run for it. He climbed a seven-foot wall, ducked under a fence through a hole dug out by workers who fled before him and walked almost 15 miles before getting a ride from a passerby.
Besoz/CIA propaganda paper about Iphone workers fleeing the Apple crap factory in China.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/02/china-foxconn-iphone-factory-zhengzhou-covid/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/02/china-foxconn-iphone-factory-zhengzhou-covid/)QuoteFor more than two weeks, Zhuo, who works on Foxconn’s iPhone assembly line in the Chinese city of Zhengzhou, was trapped inside the sprawling campus while the company battled a coronavirus outbreak in the middle of its peak production season.
As the plant instituted government instructions to seal itself off from the world in what is known as “closed loop” management, Zhuo, 19, watched co-workers get carted off to abandoned buildings repurposed as quarantine centers. The company pressured people back to work before it was clear they weren’t contagious.
On Friday, Zhuo decided to make a run for it. He climbed a seven-foot wall, ducked under a fence through a hole dug out by workers who fled before him and walked almost 15 miles before getting a ride from a passerby.
It is not propaganda. It is real. I live in China, I saw the videos on wechat, tiktok before they were deleted from the Internet. Shenzhen Foxconn factory just increased the production by 30% to compensate.
In another sign the world’s shortage of chips still hasn’t abated, Toyota Motor Corp. will temporarily give new car buyers just one smart key instead of two
as it seeks to ration semiconductors. The measure will apply to 14 models for sale in Japan, including Crown sedans, Prius hybrids and the battery-electric bZ4X,
for production in November, the Japanese automaker said in a notice to customers Thursday.
One of the usual two smart keys will be replaced with a regular old fashioned one. Semiconductors are used in electronic keys to lock and unlock cars remotely.
Toyota’s luxury car brand Lexus will take similar measures.
After a national security review, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne is ordering three Chinese resource companies to sell their interests in Canadian critical mineral firms.
[...] to ensure supply chains rest mostly in the hands of friends and allies.
In June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen referred to it as "friend-shoring" during a trip to Ottawa.
it's affecting me because ABF-based custom packages have like a 30+ week leadtime now, which makes prototyping... inconvenient.
it's affecting me because ABF-based custom packages have like a 30+ week leadtime now, which makes prototyping... inconvenient.
I wonder how much that suggests reduction of supply or increase of demand. The latter would be a more hopeful outcome...
Tim
I seem to recall the ABF is made by one company in Japan (it's "Ajinomoto Build-up Film", so technically a brand?) so I bet their order book looks pretty healthy. This stuff really needs to be diversified!
Ajinomoto is famous for MSG, but they are a popular brand in Asia for a wide range of amino acid based food technologies. You'll even see their ads on TV.I seem to recall the ABF is made by one company in Japan (it's "Ajinomoto Build-up Film", so technically a brand?) so I bet their order book looks pretty healthy. This stuff really needs to be diversified!
Indeed, ABF is technically a brand name for Ajinomoto (which is a food chemical company, I heard soms story about ABF being an 'accidental' byproduct for MSG manufacturing?). But there are a number of other companies that make similar materials, and now it has become a eponym for the process of building up packages with thin semicured resin films. They are building another production facility so it is supposedly going to get better towards Q3 2023, but we will see.
Ajinomoto is famous for MSG, but they are a popular brand in Asia for a wide range of amino acid based food technologies. You'll even see their ads on TV.
Ajinomoto is famous for MSG, but they are a popular brand in Asia for a wide range of amino acid based food technologies. You'll even see their ads on TV.
Interesting, a bit similar to how Noritake produce fine chinaware and... vacuum fluorescent displays. You can kind of see the similarities in requiring kilns and precision manufacturing (perhaps some kind of printing for the electrodes?), but other than that it is a bit peculiar.
At the risk of going far off-topic, this does seem to be more common in asian companies/conglomorates. You have companies like Kyocera who make stuff from kitchen knives to printers to custom chip packages etc...Kyocera is short for Kyoto Technical Ceramics. So, they make ceramic knives, ceramic packages, and so on. Their oddities are making things like printers and cell phones. Most of these types of Asian company have most of their business in one type of technology, but varied applications. If they spread across unrelated fields, like ChiMei or Roland, its usually because different founding family members had different interests. e.g. ChiMei defines itself as a materials science company, so they make things like LCD panels and e-paper, but they also make terrific cakes.
I worked for a Japanese company, that was in the cement business. So obviously, they also started with ship building, and electronics assembly for car parts or industrial washing machines, tapes and 3D graphics software. It just comes naturally.Ajinomoto is famous for MSG, but they are a popular brand in Asia for a wide range of amino acid based food technologies. You'll even see their ads on TV.
Interesting, a bit similar to how Noritake produce fine chinaware and... vacuum fluorescent displays. You can kind of see the similarities in requiring kilns and precision manufacturing (perhaps some kind of printing for the electrodes?), but other than that it is a bit peculiar.
At the risk of going far off-topic, this does seem to be more common in asian companies/conglomorates. You have companies like Kyocera who make stuff from kitchen knives to printers to custom chip packages etc...
in the cement business. So obviously, they also started with ship building
At the risk of going far off-topic, this does seem to be more common in asian companies/conglomorates. You have companies like Kyocera who make stuff from kitchen knives to printers to custom chip packages etc...
You are talking about the chaebol/keiretsu dynamic in Korea and Japan, which is different from the dynamic of family started businesses across East Asia. Those aren't like modern European and American businesses, but they are a lot like 60s Europe and America conglomerates, where the thinking was if you want stability you go for massive diversity in your business areas.At the risk of going far off-topic, this does seem to be more common in asian companies/conglomorates. You have companies like Kyocera who make stuff from kitchen knives to printers to custom chip packages etc...
Yes, you're probably right, it does seem like an Asian quirk...
Yamaha make home AV equipment, pianos/keyboards, and motorcycles/outboard engines/gensets.
Mitsubishi makes cars, air conditioning units, refrigerators and cranes.
Samsung make smartphones, TVs and tanks (until that part was spun off).
Can't think of many comparable European/American examples.
Can't think of many comparable European/American examples.
Xi now going 101% totalitarian on the billionaires, it would be strange, if this if true, not reflect on the chip shortage one way or the other.
Or perhaps its just a part of the old Chinese plan to take over Canada and Australia. :-//
video.
It is not propaganda. It is real. I live in China, I saw the videos on wechat, tiktok before they were deleted from the Internet. Shenzhen Foxconn factory just increased the production by 30% to compensate.
Xi now going 101% totalitarian on the billionaires, it would be strange, if this if true, not reflect on the chip shortage one way or the other.
Or perhaps its just a part of the old Chinese plan to take over Canada and Australia. :-//
video.
Everyone in the world who has a bit of dough is losing money. Xi can take credit for that if he wants, seems silly to me(if it backfires). The poor in China think he's wonderful so who cares?
China's problem with Australia is, unlike Canada, the Indians (from India) will have something to say about it. Canada, Australia and India are colonies and in the past shared a certain bond of culture, in terms of how we feel about colonialism, let's say.
India is poised to become the new China for manufacturing. Many of the countries around this region are communicating amongst themselves well, yet, China's official posture makes us sorry be did business there. Their leader has made no indication that that will ever change, so the billionaires tied up there know what they have to do. The big question is how long will they wait.
3 out of 4 of the last Chinese leaders had three terms... Xi is nothing special, he will be gone one day. There's no point sitting around and waiting for it... we have to make money today, whatever leaders are in power, good bad or indifferent!
You have no idea how elections work over there, do you?3 out of 4 of the last Chinese leaders had three terms... Xi is nothing special, he will be gone one day. There's no point sitting around and waiting for it... we have to make money today, whatever leaders are in power, good bad or indifferent!
Yep, really do not understand the Western's narrative and obsession on Xi's terms, he started in 2013 and has been smeared as forever dictator, while for example Angela Merkel (as German chancellor) which was started in 2006 until 2021 didn't have the dictator's title. :-//
The "smearing narrative" is only used whenever convenient. On the other perspective, the constant smearing means he is doing a really great job, ... ... NOT for Western's world. :-DD
Too much politics...We should go back to chips..
Thing that is annoying to me is that ST sends me all these mails new this and new that but cannot deliver basic stuff..
Yeah I know how things work but still annoying...
If you block out vendors one by one as they give you a bad experience you'll end up with nobody to buy from at all. Not every vendor has been a good supplier at one time, but EVERY vendor who has been around for a while has been through a period when they are a nightmare to work with.Too much politics...We should go back to chips..
Thing that is annoying to me is that ST sends me all these mails new this and new that but cannot deliver basic stuff..
Yeah I know how things work but still annoying...
It is unlikely to be a case of cannot, it is a case of will not. According to a trusted insider, the big manufacturers chose to send them to their big customers rather than to the likes of you or me. Since 2020 I have been getting heaps of advertising emails from ST, TI and MCP about chips they won't supply. All are now sent to junk email as spam. I got a personal email from the TI rep in Singapore today about helping me with supply of chips using the TI API... I did not answer it but deleted it. I don't care. I have given up on TI as a trusted supplier.
Chip shortage undoubtedly affected by the actions of politics. [...]
If you block out vendors one by one as they give you a bad experience you'll end up with nobody to buy from at all. Not every vendor has been a good supplier at one time, but EVERY vendor who has been around for a while has been through a period when they are a nightmare to work with.
The companies that served you well this time will probably serve you badly next time around, and vice versa. This is the historical pattern. Through a 40 year career you will eventually be blocking everyone.If you block out vendors one by one as they give you a bad experience you'll end up with nobody to buy from at all. Not every vendor has been a good supplier at one time, but EVERY vendor who has been around for a while has been through a period when they are a nightmare to work with.
The difference is some suppliers have kept SME's supplied via distributors. Off the top of my head these have not been so bad:
Microchip
Fairchild
Xilinx (less so nowadays, perhaps post AMD)
Maxim
Linear Tech/ADI
Whereas these companies are on a "don't design in unless you have no choice" list:
TI
ST Micro
Bosch
The companies that served you well this time will probably serve you badly next time around, and vice versa. This is the historical pattern. Through a 40 year career you will eventually be blocking everyone.
0.7%, that isn't bad. :-DD
Well, that can't be right, the Wall Street Journal says the shortage is over, and there is now a glut.
Well, that can't be right, the Wall Street Journal says the shortage is over, and there is now a glut.
Can't you just be happy there's good news, finally?
;)
Nov 14 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) said it bought more than $4.1 billion of stock in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW), , a rare significant foray into the technology sector by billionaire Warren Buffett's conglomerate.
The news sent shares in TSMC soaring, closing up 7.9% in Taiwan on Tuesday, as it boosted investor sentiment for the world's largest contract chipmaker, which saw its shares hit a two-year low last month due to a sharp slowdown in global chip demand.
I just had a thought...
Because of shortages, designers are forced to use parts from smaller companies that are only in stock because no one wanted to use them before the shortages.
I wonder how many of those smaller companies will be able to capitalize on the sales/exposure boost and move up to middle or big guys themselves....
I just had a thought...
Because of shortages, designers are forced to use parts from smaller companies that are only in stock because no one wanted to use them before the shortages.
I wonder how many of those smaller companies will be able to capitalize on the sales/exposure boost and move up to middle or big guys themselves....
One thing for sure: Smaller, even local (national only) distis that carry brands that the big boys don't (namely chinese brands) are becoming very, very big.
I just had a thought...
Because of shortages, designers are forced to use parts from smaller companies that are only in stock because no one wanted to use them before the shortages.
I wonder how many of those smaller companies will be able to capitalize on the sales/exposure boost and move up to middle or big guys themselves....
One thing for sure: Smaller, even local (national only) distis that carry brands that the big boys don't (namely chinese brands) are becoming very, very big.
All you need is at total of 20 years of experience and a couple "serial entrepreneurs"...
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/manufacture/who-is-microchipusa-com/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/manufacture/who-is-microchipusa-com/)
And you know once the software gets ported over, they won't be buying original STM32's any more.
I just had a thought...
Because of shortages, designers are forced to use parts from smaller companies that are only in stock because no one wanted to use them before the shortages.
I wonder how many of those smaller companies will be able to capitalize on the sales/exposure boost and move up to middle or big guys themselves....
One thing for sure: Smaller, even local (national only) distis that carry brands that the big boys don't (namely chinese brands) are becoming very, very big.
All you need is at total of 20 years of experience and a couple "serial entrepreneurs"...
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/manufacture/who-is-microchipusa-com/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/manufacture/who-is-microchipusa-com/)
Nah, not like that. I've been recently made contact with a local supplier (fun fact, for 30 years they were based in the building behind my school and i literally never heard of them before), they are the italian distributors for a couple of chinese brands (including GEEHY) that have been delivering pin to pin compatible alternatives to STM32 and the likes, with actual stock, four weeks lead time during all 2022. You can imagine how business has been going for them
Manufacturing older chips might be something that might work for smaller manufacturers, as many of them are niche markets now?
UK Government deems Nexperia’s acquisition of Newport Wafer Fab a “risk to national security”
Pursuant to section 26 of the National Security and Investment Act 2021, the UK Government’s Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has made a final order after its review of the acquisition on 5 July 2021 by Netherlands-based Nexperia BV of an additional 86% of the shares of Newport Wafer Fab (NWF, now Nexperia Newport Ltd, or NNL), taking its stake to 100%.
The order determines that the acquisition constitutes a trigger event under section 8(2)(c) of the Act. Specifically, the acquisition by Nexperia (a subsidiary of China-based Wingtech Technology Co Ltd) presents a risk to national security relating to:
QuoteUK Government deems Nexperia’s acquisition of Newport Wafer Fab a “risk to national security”
Pursuant to section 26 of the National Security and Investment Act 2021, the UK Government’s Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has made a final order after its review of the acquisition on 5 July 2021 by Netherlands-based Nexperia BV of an additional 86% of the shares of Newport Wafer Fab (NWF, now Nexperia Newport Ltd, or NNL), taking its stake to 100%.
The order determines that the acquisition constitutes a trigger event under section 8(2)(c) of the Act. Specifically, the acquisition by Nexperia (a subsidiary of China-based Wingtech Technology Co Ltd) presents a risk to national security relating to:
https://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2022/nov/nexperia-newport-181122.shtml (https://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2022/nov/nexperia-newport-181122.shtml)
Not sure about the small ones, but Maxim for instance certainly regained significant market and trust thanks to the shortage.
Many companies that had basically striked Maxim off their list - for chronic poor availability and parts getting obsolete with little warning - started considering Maxim again as they have tended to do better than average ever since the shortage started.
Not sure about the small ones, but Maxim for instance certainly regained significant market and trust thanks to the shortage.
Many companies that had basically striked Maxim off their list - for chronic poor availability and parts getting obsolete with little warning - started considering Maxim again as they have tended to do better than average ever since the shortage started.
I'm pretty sure that this is mostly due to the fact that they got bought by Analog Devices which never jerked their customers around like Maxim did.
I avoided Maxim parts like the plague, but now they are on the menu.
Funny. I've only heard of the Maxim parts sourcing/EOL problems from old timers. I've never experienced any issues first hand, and I used a bunch of Maxim parts when they made sense. Maybe it was the Dallas acquisition around 2001 that made them shape up?People were still complaining bitterly about Maxim's service up to the time of their acquisition by ADI. A lot of people worried that they would infect ADI with bad service, but thankfully it seems to have gone the other way.
Not sure about the small ones, but Maxim for instance certainly regained significant market and trust thanks to the shortage.
Many companies that had basically striked Maxim off their list - for chronic poor availability and parts getting obsolete with little warning - started considering Maxim again as they have tended to do better than average ever since the shortage started.
I'm pretty sure that this is mostly due to the fact that they got bought by Analog Devices which never jerked their customers around like Maxim did.
I avoided Maxim parts like the plague, but now they are on the menu.
What I remember from the “bad old days” at Maxim were complaints from design engineers who found a Maxim device perfectly suited to their requirements, only to have it discontinued shortly thereafter. Maybe 2005 - 2010? ADI bought Maxim in 2020.
Yeah, about ADI being the good guys. Find me some LT8650s or LT3086IRs or any number of other LT power products, and let's talk. :'(
Stuff is happening in china economically as well. For a few weeks there it was cheaper to order from amazon than from AliExpress.
Right now it's not worth it at all. IC modules you used to pick up half a dozen for a £10 on a boredom shopping binge are now £6 + £2 shipping. Unfortunately the resellers on Amazon have figured this out too now and all those prices have skyrocketed. I wanted a second PCM5102 DAC module for the breadboard. The last one I bought 2 months ago on Ali was £2.20, FREE Shipping. Now they are all £5-6 with shipping. £8 on Amazon for a single. There are module sellers on EBay who have just "quit" by adding a 0 to all their prices. Suggesting they just don't want to sell in the market.... or they are facing shipping and stocking issues like everyone.
The British pound tanking doesn't help either, obviously.
I have an order from Ali which arrived in the UK on Thursday last week. Royal Mail still haven't got it the last 400 miles.
Wondering if any of you saw this video and have any comment about it.
My dad said America is trying to steal TSMC!Did not watch the video but know about the new giga factories they are planning.
My dad said America is trying to steal TSMC!Did not watch the video but know about the new giga factories they are planning.
IMO this is not stealing, this is common business sense.
You will not build a house on a vulcano that might erupt any day from now.
You build it were it is safe.
Same here, Taiwan and China are in conflict which might escalate. Europe, US and others depend for their products on the chips from TMSC.
So why not help them build factories where it is relative safe ?
But the US has been importing scientific knowledge for decades. I had hoped they would have stepped up their own education more so there would be more local uni graduates but somehow it is a question of numbers.
When there are 100000 university graduates in India to pick from........
Anyway, I think this is good for the western world at least that the suplly of electronic components will be spread across the globe instead of focussed in one region that has chance of conflict.
As a child in Sunday School, we sang a song:
"The foolish man built his house upon the sand...
"The wise man built his house upon the rock...
"etc."
It was a good song for children, who could do their own sound effects.
Yeah, Taiwanese companies put Automotive parts under allocation, so you suddenly couldn't build your 50.000 EUR car, because a 10c chip was missing for the CAN controlled dodad. I don't think anyone wants to go though this again, so they are investing into semiconductors now. What was the cycle again?My dad said America is trying to steal TSMC!Did not watch the video but know about the new giga factories they are planning.
IMO this is not stealing, this is common business sense.
You will not build a house on a vulcano that might erupt any day from now.
You build it were it is safe.
Same here, Taiwan and China are in conflict which might escalate. Europe, US and others depend for their products on the chips from TMSC.
My dad said America is trying to steal TSMC!
My dad said America is trying to steal TSMC!
One of many-many examples ... French's Alstom.
I guess most here are too young to know what was happened to Alstom.
[...]
What was the cycle again?
Tantalum in 2010, Discrete parts in 2015, MLCCs in 2018, ICs in 2020. So I'm guessing 2023 will be connectors and then resistors or batteries later.
My dad said America is trying to steal TSMC!
One of many-many examples ... French's Alstom.
I guess most here are too young to know what was happened to Alstom.Care to enlighten us?
Forget it, I just read it regarding GE.
[...]
What was the cycle again?
Tantalum in 2010, Discrete parts in 2015, MLCCs in 2018, ICs in 2020. So I'm guessing 2023 will be connectors and then resistors or batteries later.
I'm looking forward to having better alternatives to lithium batteries. I hope the transition doesn't cause a shortage. Spoke to someone the other day making flexible paper fuel cells, doing 1000/day now, planning for new machine that could make 1 million in 8 hours.
I asked if it is a fire hazard, their response was, no, you can cut them in half and they still work, you can even eat them.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday it had filed a complaint against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization in response to new controls from Washington on semiconductor trade with China, describing the action as a response to trade protectionism.
Beijing will use the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism to challenge U.S. export controls on products such as chips to China to defend its rights and interests, its Ministry of Commerce said in a statement posted to its website.
The complaint was initially filed by China, but friendly nations such as Switzerland and Norway are among the complainants. The U.S. said it strongly rejected the panels’ “flawed interpretation and conclusions,” and hinted it would appeal the decision. The U.S. also said the WTO panel have no authority to review national security issues.
As a seller of Arduino stuff... Pro Micros from China (ATMega32U4) have basically doubled in price, that's if the vendor actually has them rather than just saying they have them.
I have ordered a few IC's from Ali Express and a few days after ordering I get a message saying order has been cancelled.
Oh, India is going to be USA's next target. ::)
Oh, India is going to be USA's next target. ::)
I think moving chip manufacturing to India is a really good idea it is certainly a well secured nation by the sheer number of people that are there and it will help those in poverty to rise up and shake the dust off.
Eben Upton on the chip shortage, uses the toilet paper hoarding argument analogy, a bit questionable to use that i argue.
Eben Upton on the chip shortage, uses the toilet paper hoarding argument analogy, a bit questionable to use that i argue.;D
It's a great metaphor for what people are doing with all these PIs laying around. May as well wipe your arse with them.
Nothing is real
And nothing to get hung about
Raspberry fields forever! ::)
I know a few companies who use the Pi - either in Compute Module form or as a SBC - inside their products. I can absolutely believe they have warehouses full of these because without them, they're screwed.I know a few such companies who didn't/weren't able to stock up and they are screwed! They're now scrambling to port to Chinese alternatives but not without a lot of headache.
Anyway, the shortage seems to be easing indeed. A number of parts are starting to reappear in reasonable quantities.
Whether it's just temporary or not, I don't know.
And, whether it's a good sign or not - unfortunately, I strongly suspect it is just recession rearing its ugly head.
But fact is, I can actually get parts at the moment.
But we aren't there yet. Look at e.g. Mouser and FT232BL. 8k+ in stock. Bearing in mind the recent history of this chip ("the factory is not accepting orders") this is totally and utterly amazing. Only ~ 6 months ago their UK disti said that if we want some "allocated" by FTDI we will need to pay £1 on top of the then 4k+ price of £2.20 i.e. £3.20. And I had to beg for this, emailing their Taiwanese HQ and everybody else. So they got £2k extra "extortion fee" out of me for a 2k production run. Now this is not an expensive product I am selling so I was well pissed off with this blatent extortion especially as the FT232BL became ex stock more or less when the last of the 2k chips were shipped to us :) I don't mind posting this because I designed out the FT232BL and went to another chip which is a) available (I bought 2k from Digikey, ex stock) and b) is much cheaper at about £1.50.
...I do think it is essential that semiconductor manufacturing not be concentrated in a few countries though, if only for long term economic stability.
In the electronics industry, JIT was never a great idea because it relies on everything in the supply chain working like clockwork at all times.
Maybe after their CEOs resign and they get new blood in who are competent and customer focused.
- screw customers (a very bad idea)
- screw employees (they tend to sue so you have to be very careful)
- screw suppliers (always a good one)
Now 51,758 FT232BL in stock :) :) :)
(https://peter-ftp.co.uk/screenshots/202301011516390114.jpg)
Not if but when...
A 'coworker' recommended an IC supervisor for a button circuit. I rejected it due to low stock and made a more generic design with easily replaceable parts but signed up for notifications anyways. Now I'm getting notifications: part went obsolete.
add more BOM line items
Quoteadd more BOM line items
Do some companies have such a rule? It would be utterly bizzare. Resistors and caps and common transistors are always available, and are always cheap. Using commodity parts to replace a unique chip, especially a weird thing like that, is always a good idea.
Quoteadd more BOM line items
Do some companies have such a rule? It would be utterly bizzare. Resistors and caps and common transistors are always available, and are always cheap. Using commodity parts to replace a unique chip, especially a weird thing like that, is always a good idea.
Yes? Most of them? More line items means more reel changes on the PnP, more labor required, more production cost. :-+
Tim
Not if you design everything with 10k resistors etc (you get my drift) :)
You can always tell a novice working without supervision. The circuit is full of 9.1k resistors :) A lot of Honeywell avionics are like that e.g. the KFC225 autopilot - hundreds of weird component values which are so obviously pointless.
You can always tell a novice working without supervision. The circuit is full of 9.1k resistors :) A lot of Honeywell avionics are like that e.g. the KFC225 autopilot - hundreds of weird component values which are so obviously pointless.
Another factor is that by minimising your BOM, it may also reduce your total parts cost, as you will be buying a larger quantity, e.g. 1 full reel vs. two half-reels of different values will usually be cheaper.Quoteadd more BOM line items
Do some companies have such a rule? It would be utterly bizzare. Resistors and caps and common transistors are always available, and are always cheap. Using commodity parts to replace a unique chip, especially a weird thing like that, is always a good idea.
Yes? Most of them? More line items means more reel changes on the PnP, more labor required, more production cost. :-+
Tim
I'm not really familiar with PnP but I've heard removing an item can have extra impact if for example their PnP has 20 reel slots and your BOM has 21 or 41 line items.
I'm not sure how many slots my assemblers have or how much that difference actually costs.
I just know that's more items for me and everyone else to deal with and I prefer to have less.
JIT never really existed. It is a euphemism for a big company (customer) shafting a small company (supplier) into keeping stock free of charge. In electronics especially, it can't work.
QuoteJIT never really existed. It is a euphemism for a big company (customer) shafting a small company (supplier) into keeping stock free of charge. In electronics especially, it can't work.
It can work in a well managed supply chain under very specific circumstances. We had a study mission to see how Lexus manage their Tier 1 and Tier 2 supply chain. It really was JIT, 15 minute delivery intervals, zero warehousing anywhere in the chain. They visit and train their suppliers not to keep inventory beyond a 4 hour buffer stock. The whole thing
Not even the factory that produces, for example, plastic parts for the cars?
Factories have parallel production lines for every part separate? How is that possible?
It can work in a well managed supply chain under very specific circumstances. We had a study mission to see how Lexus manage their Tier 1 and Tier 2 supply chain. It really was JIT, 15 minute delivery intervals, zero warehousing anywhere in the chain. They visit and train their suppliers not to keep inventory beyond a 4 hour buffer stock.
QuoteJIT never really existed. It is a euphemism for a big company (customer) shafting a small company (supplier) into keeping stock free of charge. In electronics especially, it can't work.
It can work in a well managed supply chain under very specific circumstances. We had a study mission to see how Lexus manage their Tier 1 and Tier 2 supply chain. It really was JIT, 15 minute delivery intervals, zero warehousing anywhere in the chain. They visit and train their suppliers not to keep inventory beyond a 4 hour buffer stock. The whole thing
Not even the factory that produces, for example, plastic parts for the cars?
Factories have parallel production lines for every part separate? How is that possible?
QuoteIt can work in a well managed supply chain under very specific circumstances. We had a study mission to see how Lexus manage their Tier 1 and Tier 2 supply chain. It really was JIT, 15 minute delivery intervals, zero warehousing anywhere in the chain. They visit and train their suppliers not to keep inventory beyond a 4 hour buffer stock.
A friend was one of their suppliers. JIT worked while it worked. When something "broke", he had to hire a turbine helicopter at GBP 3000/hr to deliver the parts to Toyota/Lexus :) Who do you think paid for the heli?
JIT is BS.
And when it goes wrong, nobody will go public with that because a) they are under NDAs b) the customer will terminate the relationship.
Many years ago, in grad school, 5% carbon-comp resistors were "free" from the electronics shop, since they were too low-priced to make billing economical.
I specifically remember using 9,100 (and decades above and below) because the unimaginative users grabbed all the 10,000 (and decades above and below) from the bin.
but the prices remain relatively high.
The funniest thing is this: I had a dispute with a (huge) disti over them rising prices after an order was placed and acked.
I refused to pay it, but amazingly they still shipped them. On top legal advice I sent the parts back for a refund.
The disti went into the super-arrogant mode, adding 5% interest per month and freezing the account. That was months ago.
It meant some other parts we had on order would also obviously not arrive, so I bought them elsewhere. And guess what turned up yesterday?
A box with the other parts! Worth about 5k. So this (huge) disti is so utterly desperate they are lifting frozen accounts to get 5k's worth of stuff out of the door.
The funniest thing is this: I had a dispute with a (huge) disti over them rising prices after an order was placed and acked.
I refused to pay it, but amazingly they still shipped them. On top legal advice I sent the parts back for a refund.
The disti went into the super-arrogant mode, adding 5% interest per month and freezing the account. That was months ago.
It meant some other parts we had on order would also obviously not arrive, so I bought them elsewhere. And guess what turned up yesterday?
A box with the other parts! Worth about 5k. So this (huge) disti is so utterly desperate they are lifting frozen accounts to get 5k's worth of stuff out of the door.
What's the name of that distributor?
Yeah; not going to name them, but it is one of the top 2 or 3 active in the UK.
This policy makes parts ordering meaningless because you can order 1000 at £1 and they can increase it to £5 and deliver them. Your option, according to advice I got, is to return the goods. You cannot make the disti revert to the contracted price. Well, if your business suffers as a result of not having the parts, you can sue them for your economic loss, because they have breached the original contract, but who will sue a 100M$/€ company?
Must be Mouser, Farnell or Digikey...
No, you can't sue them. (Well, you can, but you'd lose.) No contract for goods is formed until delivery unless explicitly detailed
Not the case in the UK. If you quote me a price, I place an order, a contract is formed. Even more so if you ack the order...
If it were as you state, all quotes and all purchase orders would have no commercial value.
it's not the case in the UK that a contract is formed by a quote alone
QuoteMust be Mouser, Farnell or Digikey...
Those are not distis. Those are firms serving hobbyists and prototype builders :) :) And at huge markups (often 2x to 3x) over disti pricing.
Lots of people have been taking the piss, and they will pay for it. Conversely those who have not will get good business.
However, they can increase the price prior to delivery.
QuoteHowever, they can increase the price prior to delivery.
I think this is incorrect. It has nothing to do with the delivery, which is just them fulfilling their side of the contract. The contract is in place once the buyer has offered to buy the goods, and seller has accepted the payment. This is the main reason why nowadays the payment isn't taken until the goods are shipped. Previously, it would be taken when the buyer checks out, but then some high-profile companies got stiffed by making a pricing mistake, taking £2 for the goods worth £200 and then being obliged to complete the contract. No-one now takes the money until the goods are on the way out the door so they can cancel the sale without penalty if necessary.
I think in Peter's case the vendor is on dodgy ground because he has offered to buy the goods at one price and they have effectively declined and decided he should pay another price. He has not accepted that new price so the goods have been sent on spec and he is perfectly entitled to tell them he hasn't ordered them (he hasn't - he ordered a cheaper product) and that they should arrange collection at their cost. The T&C small print might be a fly in the ointment there - I don't know how that works for B2B but it seems pretty unfair even in that context.
he has offered to buy the goods at one price and they have effectively declined and decided he should pay another price
By the way, TI parts are returning to the market. No doubt, supply is increasing, but the prices remain relatively high.
Mouser are quoting Feb 2024.
Maxim has been one of the best suppliers throughout this shortage! Certainly not my experience they are uncontactable either.
I'd like to have an email address, please :) I've just checked - all means of contact removed, except website support tickets.
Octopart deserves a rant thread all its own. Brokers with random names and equally-random invalid prices have taken the site over, presumably because they can pay for placement in the search results. |O
QuoteMust be Mouser, Farnell or Digikey...
Those are not distis. Those are firms serving hobbyists and prototype builders :) :) And at huge markups (often 2x to 3x) over disti pricing.
Or just some persistent setting to allow you to permanently filter only the sources you want.Octopart deserves a rant thread all its own. Brokers with random names and equally-random invalid prices have taken the site over, presumably because they can pay for placement in the search results. |O
I just ignore anything on Octopart that's not a main distributor but yeah, they need some kind of "honesty survey" to see how many of these brokers legitimately have these parts.
Or just some persistent setting to allow you to permanently filter only the sources you want.
I'm still bemused at how it is that RS seem to have become so bad at showing what they have in stock. When you search even on their own web site, it's impossible to filter by stock level. Yet the information is clearly there - you just have to find the product page for each order code, and only then do you get the little red banner that says "Ha! Fooled you, of course we don't actually have this part!".
I'm curious how hard could it be to create an alternative search engine for parts.The hard part is who pays for it or how to make money off of it.
For example, the reason Octopart doesn't let you have your own preferences and private reputation system for vendors is not because they are lazy or incompetent, but because they want you to fully trust them and to share your own information with them so that others can fully trust them too.
guaranteed to be all about calculated, cynical ripoff, money milking and "data driven" business optimization.Otherwise known as "not going bankrupt."
guaranteed to be all about calculated, cynical ripoff, money milking and "data driven" business optimization.Otherwise known as "not going bankrupt."
guaranteed to be all about calculated, cynical ripoff, money milking and "data driven" business optimization.Otherwise known as "not going bankrupt."
Well of course! That's the first step in not going broke, and I'm not defending evil business practices. But you then need to do a lot of that other stuff (ethically, it doesn't have to be a "cynical ripoff"). Or don't continuously optimize your business, just keep treading water and hope for the best.guaranteed to be all about calculated, cynical ripoff, money milking and "data driven" business optimization.Otherwise known as "not going bankrupt."
Providing a valuable, useful, and desirable products and services for customers at a fair price is the best way to do that! Old school, I know...
I've been in business 45 years and IMHO the blatent opportunism of the last 2-3 years is totally unwarranted.
I'm like 99% sure there was a some sort of time distortion event somewhere in 2015 when it all went downhill and we ended up with the worst timeline possible.I've been in business 45 years and IMHO the blatent opportunism of the last 2-3 years is totally unwarranted.
True. Then again, most of what has happened these last 2-3 years is totally unwarranted.
I'm like 99% sure there was a some sort of time distortion event somewhere in 2015 when it all went downhill and we ended up with the worst timeline possible.I've been in business 45 years and IMHO the blatent opportunism of the last 2-3 years is totally unwarranted.
True. Then again, most of what has happened these last 2-3 years is totally unwarranted.
I'm like 99% sure there was a some sort of time distortion event somewhere in 20152015?
I'm like 99% sure there was a some sort of time distortion event somewhere in 20152015?
I could see shit going downhill since early '10s, and honestly I was still a young naive kid then.
Are there even any adults left out there? :-DD
I've been in electronic mfg since 1978 and little has changed in the way the industry behaves.
It has gradually got worse with the internet. It has brought us easy to find data sheets, forums where you can get help (just as well because nobody can read 2000 page RMs) but it killed all other support, so part mfgs have cut themselves off from non OEM volume users, and the distis which used to do this job have almost universally filled up with absolute chimps who cannot even quote for an 0805 1k resistor unless you have the exact P/N.
These shortages have always been around periodically. this last one got worse because of covid disruption, causing widespread panic and hoarding.
It is coming to the end now but nobody in the supply pipeline will admit that their business is rapidly dying and they aren't getting any new orders because everybody is stocked up to their ears. Unfortunately the stocks were bought at silly prices and nobody wants to take the hit on the write-down. Like this
https://www.mouser.co.uk/ProductDetail/FTDI/FT232BL-REEL?qs=D1%2FPMqvA100PI4e%2FlmnSkg%3D%3D (https://www.mouser.co.uk/ProductDetail/FTDI/FT232BL-REEL?qs=D1%2FPMqvA100PI4e%2FlmnSkg%3D%3D)
Dead stock, nobody buying (because FTDI fuc**d everybody over with demands for $1+/chip ransom payments), silly price, but nobody will admit it.
More specific lead time details from Digikey here:13 weeks -as I recall- is basically the time to go through the production line. So there is like constant free capacity?
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/digikey-claimes-shorter-lead-time-(lol)/msg4675732/#msg4675732 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/digikey-claimes-shorter-lead-time-(lol)/msg4675732/#msg4675732)
Don't forget Octopart often have wrong info from RS regarding stock. To the point where its not trustworthy at all (for RS).I invariably find that RS stock shown on Findchips is a complete lie. Findchips should drop RS if they can't provide true information.
13 weeks -as I recall- is basically the time to go through the production line. So there is like constant free capacity?
Well, I'm no expert, but I'd assume out of those 13 weeks it takes only a fraction of time for actual manufacturing. I'd expect there is a lot of queuing time in those 13 weeks. Like, "waiting to be tested", "waiting to be packaged", "waiting to be shipped", etc.I'm fairly sure they have teams organizing orders to make production as efficient and fast as possible, since time is money.
I am pretty sure the above 13 week period is not at all related to the fab lead time.
The chips need to be tested, packaged, etc. That leadtime is probably a good few months.
A clear sign that things have gone back to normal is when the RPI4 will be plenty available for the normal price.
A clear sign that things have gone back to normal is when the RPI4 will be plenty available for the normal price.
RPi has faced shortages well before Chipageddon. There is an argument that it is a little underpriced given the demand they receive for the product but it was originally an educational 'toy' and it's since been taken up by loads of SMEs as an easy way to embed Linux into X (whether or not it really requires it.)Indeed. It seems that many Pi projects could be more economically implemented with a ucontroller of some kind. And many other projects don't even use I/O, so you might as well just use a cheap SFF pc - at today's Pi prices, you could pick up some old Dell or HP mini box for cheaper.
I've been on Digi-Key's notification list for STM32F7 parts for 2 years now and finally was notified that one of these parts (STM32F767) was in stock. The email arrived at 8:01am today. When I checked the website at 8:02am the part was out of stock again. |O
Other rumours also say that AMD's latest Ryzen series is starting to look like a commercial failure. :popcorn:
Other rumours also say that AMD's latest Ryzen series is starting to look like a commercial failure. :popcorn:
I've mostly been an Intel chap but was thinking of migrating to AMD... what's the problem with Ryzen?
No doubt AMD's gonna surprise us next time around though. That is good competition!Other rumours also say that AMD's latest Ryzen series is starting to look like a commercial failure. :popcorn:
I've mostly been an Intel chap but was thinking of migrating to AMD... what's the problem with Ryzen?
Not sure if it's Ryzen so much as what application you run. We have a Threadripper 3970X system (32 Core / 64 thread) built to the hilt for rendering using an application named Keyshot and it beats the pants off an equivalent Intel system. But try and run AutoCAD on it and expect strange hangs and crashes. In fairness, I think AutoCAD has always favored Intel. Still, sometimes you need to mate the platform to the applicatiion.Other rumours also say that AMD's latest Ryzen series is starting to look like a commercial failure. :popcorn:I've mostly been an Intel chap but was thinking of migrating to AMD... what's the problem with Ryzen?
But try and run AutoCAD on it and expect strange hangs and crashes. In fairness, I think AutoCAD has always favored Intel. Still, sometimes you need to mate the platform to the applicatiion.
That was my first thought as well, but the issues remained despite multiple drivers tested. For better or worse we tend to standardize on Nvidia RTX A series workstation cards, so I don't have a Radeon with sufficient horsepower to test. And fwiw error logs show the AutoCAD applications as those crashing.But try and run AutoCAD on it and expect strange hangs and crashes. In fairness, I think AutoCAD has always favored Intel. Still, sometimes you need to mate the platform to the applicatiion.
A graphics card (driver) issue seems more likely here.
RPi has faced shortages well before Chipageddon. There is an argument that it is a little underpriced given the demand they receive for the product but it was originally an educational 'toy' and it's since been taken up by loads of SMEs as an easy way to embed Linux into X (whether or not it really requires it.)Indeed. It seems that many Pi projects could be more economically implemented with a ucontroller of some kind. And many other projects don't even use I/O, so you might as well just use a cheap SFF pc - at today's Pi prices, you could pick up some old Dell or HP mini box for cheaper.
Tell the electric company not to hard shut it down.
You obviously haven't used a PI long enough with the SD card. Quality or not. In daily use an SD card lasts no longer than 2 years. That's how long they last in a PI and how long they last in a dashcam. They tend not to fail gracefully either. I use either Samsung or San disk cards.
On media, it was the RPI as media server. It could not handle the multi-threaded SMB protocol used underneath. Fine for playback but even skipping and flicking through MP3s it would bottle neck.
And Kodi on a RPI3 and you say you have never experienced problems. That tells me your tolerance for performance. I couldn't use Kodi. I can't stand waiting a second for every damn click.
In fairness, Kodi runs like shit on a modern PC as well.
Rather than see Taiwan’s semiconductor factories fall into the hands of the Communist Party of China, the US and its allies would simply pull a Nordstream.
“The United States and its allies are never going to let those factories fall into Chinese hands,” O’Brien told Semafor, a news outlet that has been funded by jailed Democratic financier Sam Bankman-Fried and his brother. O’Brien went on to compare the destruction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) to Winston Churchill’s bombing of a French naval fleet after the country’s surrender to Nazi Germany.
Would you even need to destroy TSMC? Simply stopping all shipments to Taiwan will render the factories pretty close to useless. Without replacement lasers, you get about a month's worth of machine time with EUV, for instance.I'm sure people could learn a lot by having a bunch of those things to strip down and analyse. That won't inform anyone too much about the kinds of advanced manufacturing techniques needed to produce such precise machines, but it would certainly help a lot in many areas of developing a substitute.
This would only hurt the west, for the most part. We love doing that!
This would only hurt the west, for the most part. We love doing that!It would hurt everyone except ASML and other fab equipment suppliers. It would take at least a decade to rebuild what was lost in other places, and get the electronics industry back on track.
This would only hurt the west, for the most part. We love doing that!It would hurt everyone except ASML and other fab equipment suppliers. It would take at least a decade to rebuild what was lost in other places, and get the electronics industry back on track.
Supposedly they are busy expanding, ensuring the expansion is not concentrated in a SPOF. Completely replacing much of what currently exists would be a big expansion for people like ASML.This would only hurt the west, for the most part. We love doing that!It would hurt everyone except ASML and other fab equipment suppliers. It would take at least a decade to rebuild what was lost in other places, and get the electronics industry back on track.
I thought we were busy re-creating already?
Destroying the chip factories a la Nordstream would immediately make Taiwan not worth bothering with for the West... so it may actually avoid a war, if it were to happen.
.. bla..bla.. Taiwan ... evil China ... bla ..bla..
Semiconductors are just another "minor" reason.
A weakening global economy and listless demand for electronics is finally catching up with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which Thursday cut its outlook for both the company and the broader chip industry.
How much further can the "chip shortage" fairy tale run?
Until I can buy mass-market Xilinx and Altera FPGAs again without paying 4x MSRP to Chinese brokers.
Is anybody else getting spammed by Chinese chip suppliers at the moment?
Fortunately I rarely give out a valid phone number anyway - seems as though that was probably a good decision.Yeah I've never given out my mobile phone number except to those I choose to - these guys all look us up on our website and get the business number from there.
Is anybody else getting spammed by Chinese chip suppliers at the moment? We get at least one or two calls per day - I've had to tell my staff not to answer any calls from country code 86 but still some get through! Plus I get personally bombarded with Linkedin messages and emails. I used to be polite and say that I will review their company and let them know in the future if there are any opportunities but now they phone every couple of days.
I'm guessing a lot of these companies who hoarded stock over the past 24 months are starting to feel the pinch now!
I'll believe it when RPI4b's become plenty available for normal prices... 8)
:popcorn:
I'll believe it when RPI4b's become plenty available for normal prices... 8)
:popcorn:
Since distributors (small and large alike) have now gotten used to the elevated prices, getting them back to "normal" will happen only when the demand drops dramatically, rather than just when the offer raises back to "normal" levels. Just my 2 cents.
Curbing the profiteers of any crisis usually takes another crisis. ::)
I'll believe it when RPI4b's become plenty available for normal prices... 8)
:popcorn:
Since distributors (small and large alike) have now gotten used to the elevated prices, getting them back to "normal" will happen only when the demand drops dramatically, rather than just when the offer raises back to "normal" levels. Just my 2 cents.
Curbing the profiteers of any crisis usually takes another crisis. ::)
That usually requires price fixing which is forbidden in many countries. We need just one distributor/reseller that wants to lower the price somewhat in order to sell more and the others will follow. Than the cycle of lowering the price will repeat until a normal margin will be reached. It's called competition.
Price fixing is widely done in electronics.Yes, and recently I got a BIIIG check from the resistor indirect class action suit, and a smaller check from the capacitor suit. The cause was exactly price fixing and collusion.
The method used is that a franchised disti selling at an unauthorised price gets the franchise pulled. I have this directly from people in the business. It is the oldest trick in the book.
Price maintenance is everywhere :)
FPGA prices, OTOH, are still almost twice what they should be. :(I've heard on the grapevine that demand for FPGAs is way up after Russian invasion of Ukraine. Lots more missile systems, thermal cameras, radars etc.
Price fixing is widely done in electronics.
The method used is that a franchised disti selling at an unauthorised price gets the franchise pulled. I have this directly from people in the business. It is the oldest trick in the book.
Price maintenance is everywhere :)
There wasn't a major shortage for the biggest OEMs. Even car manufacturers could get parts, it was just a case that they could not get enough to satisfy all of their demand and a few specific line items were very difficult to source.I think its more accurate to say they could get what they had contracted to get, but when they tried to increase orders they were rebuffed because the additional capacity wasn't there. For a semiconductor maker the automotive market is a huge PITA. Its big, which stops people walking away, but the prices are really low and the qualification requirements are really high. If you are capacity limited there are more profitable parts you can ship,
Did anyone noticed that actual nation states were also bunkering ICs?Sorry, I was talking nonsense, 8th leg is VCC 14th, so opposite corner GND.
For Russia, if they were preparing for the invasion it would totally make sense, but but also for China.
Did not went through all the messages here, but I don't remember much discussion about it.
Other thing connected to this topic:
Ikea LED candle, board made in 2021 may. MCU number IRLZ272. Did not find anything about it, but obviously IKEA did not have any problems sourcing these in the middle of the shortage for such a cheap product.
What can it be? 14 leg SO? package, 8th-leg VCC 9th leg GND. Runs from under 2V uses around 2-3 mA when working.
I think there is hardly anything manufacured "directly" by Ikea.Ikea seems to do its own woodworking, and get most other things produced by outsiders. I don't know how much input they have to the designs.