How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[Kasper]

I'd expect copper consumption to be weighted heavily toward building construction and less toward electronics.

Good point.

[Peter Taylor]

Chipageddon is not effecting me. I live in the bush, I light a fire to cook, I go out on the beach and catch fish with my bare hands.

[T3sl4co1l]

That's a copper corp (producer, presumably?), you want...

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html

Tim

[fourfathom]

Chipageddon is not effecting me. I live in the bush, I light a fire to cook, I go out on the beach and catch fish with my bare hands.

And you post to the internet via smoke signals.

[Kasper]

That's a copper corp (producer, presumably?), you want...

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html

Tim

Thanks, I was wondering about that.  I searched for copper stock and that's what came up.

Southern Copper NYSE:SCCO
Motley fool says they are the largest holder of reported copper reserves in the world.  I guess that's why their stock so closely tracks what is shown on Kitco.

[Peter Taylor]

I had better justify my previous statement. I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.  I do catch fish with my bare hands, and I do light fires on the beach, but I also own the house, worth about $1,000,000, on the foreshore, and a second house, worth about $1,000,000, up the road. My mother, and us three brothers pioneered this area and we have nieces and nephews and sisters in laws and children and great grandchildren, and it is easy for me to brush this off as 'are well, to bad, to sad' because I can.
I have been reading this post carefully and I do apologise for being crass.
Love You All.
   

[SiliconWizard]

 

[IDEngineer]

I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.

For the past two years the international news has been full of stories about how Australia was utterly unaffected by COVID-19. I would have gone to check it out myself but for some unexplained reason travel to and from Australia was somewhat difficult during that same period. Maybe it was all the other people of the world, seeking to visit the one and only COVID-19 free continent...?

[tom66]

Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper...   

copper has historically functioned as a leading predictive indicator for the general economy, expect a recession in 3-6 months. This has been true long before microelectronics became a significant portion of the manufacturing sector.

How so?  https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data

Recessions highlighted in grey, every one I can see, the price drops significantly -after- the recession has started.  Before, it's hit or miss whether it's climbing or falling.

Anyone who believes they can predict a recession is falling afoul of the efficient markets hypothesis.  Markets are a random walk.

[Peter Taylor]

It is now 6:29 AM on the East Coast of Australia, in the Tropic Of Capricorn, on the Winter Solstice, out my back door.

[TimFox]

Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper...   

copper has historically functioned as a leading predictive indicator for the general economy, expect a recession in 3-6 months. This has been true long before microelectronics became a significant portion of the manufacturing sector.

How so?  https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data

Recessions highlighted in grey, every one I can see, the price drops significantly -after- the recession has started.  Before, it's hit or miss whether it's climbing or falling.

Anyone who believes they can predict a recession is falling afoul of the efficient markets hypothesis.  Markets are a random walk.

With regard to the "EMH", the usual suspects discuss it:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
Simply put, it states that asset prices reflect all available information, and is usually discussed with respect to securities.
It not only ignores irrational behavior (which some economists believe exists in nature), but also how business schools teach students how to avoid disclosing such knowledge to the competition.
From the wikipedia article:  'Samuelson published a proof showing that if the market is efficient, prices will exhibit random-walk behavior.  This is often cited in support of the efficient-market theory, by the method of affirming the consequent, however in that same paper, Samuelson warns against such backward reasoning, saying "From a nonempirical base of axioms you never get empirical results."'
Another view is contained in the Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox (q.v.) introduced by Sanford J. Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz in a joint publication in American Economic Review in 1980 that argues perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse.  (Also from wikipedia).

Checking in my personal library, I found a similar short discussion in  John Kay, "Other People's Money", Profile Books 2015, pp 69-70.  "There is a logical contradiction at the heart of EMH.  If all information were already in the price, what incentive would there be to gather such information in the first place?"  This is in his discussion of the CAPM, that applies EMH to "the equilibrium of an efficient market populated by rational agents each holding similar expectations."  Further, he states "the EMH at once captures an important aspect of reality--the absence of easy profits--and neglects an equally fundamental one:  that the search for profits tghat are not easy is the dynamic of a capitalistic system."

[tom66]

Without getting too far off topic, EMH may not apply to all securities, except those that are widely traded and for which the penalty for insider trading is strictly enforced and therefore all parties have similar access to information.  It probably applies well to commodities, but perhaps less well to some backwater stocks on pink sheets.

Evidence for EMH comes in the form of passive index trackers nearly universally beating actively managed funds, even in times of recession.  Buffett himself had a $1m bet that no one could, in the long run, beat the S&P500 (which he won -- although he included fees and expenses in the bet, which is not something EMH would necessarily account for)  [source: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffetts-bet-hedge-funds-year-eight-brka-brkb.asp]

Could a market obtain accurate price discovery if everyone is trading passively (as there is little-to-no incentive to gather information if passive investing is so effective) is a good question...  I don't know.  About 52% of the market is passive now and that's only going to increase.  There's an argument that hedge funds will pretty much always exist because they act to provide stability in an unstable investment world and the small amount of price discovery funds perform is sufficient.  These funds will still be valuable even if they perform below a passive tracker for their stability alone.

I think while a true EMH may not apply, in so far as it is possible to apply significant analysis and predict long term trends with some wide margin of uncertainty, there is so much noise and instability in a system like this with so many variables that in general, the predictability of the market beyond more than a short period of time (maybe as little as a month or two) is dubious, at best. 

The kinds of "technical analysis" that "investment analysts" perform looking at "rebound" and "support" on what is fundamentally a random walk is *bull*, though.  If you want to do analysis of market performance, competitors, supply chain, top executives - fair enough.  But just looking at the chart and picking out boom or bust is no better than reading tea leaves. 

[VK3DRB]

I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.

For the past two years the international news has been full of stories about how Australia was utterly unaffected by COVID-19. I would have gone to check it out myself but for some unexplained reason travel to and from Australia was somewhat difficult during that same period. Maybe it was all the other people of the world, seeking to visit the one and only COVID-19 free continent...?

Not so fast.

COVID and the 'flu are rampant in Victoria (Australia) and the hospitals are filling up. I know plenty of people who have had COVID; some twice. About 20 to 30 people die from COVID each day in Victoria and it barely makes the news. In supermarkets, roughly 30% of people wear masks. In churches, a disgraceful 2% at best. People are attending superspreader events like concerts, sporting events and cinemas, and airports without wearing masks. My daughter in Paris says no-one wears masks in public there. Today, the US is number 1, France is number 4 and Australia number 5 for COVID deaths. For political reasons, the state government in Victoria is ignoring advice from medical experts to mandate people wearing masks. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

Now the good news... common resistors like that from good old Yageo now appear to be in plentiful supply at Digikey. Capacitors seem to be strongly improving in supply too. There is hope for us yet.

[SilverSolder]

Copper demand (and therefore copper price) appears to be falling...
So we have a shortage of chips while nobody is using copper...   

copper has historically functioned as a leading predictive indicator for the general economy, expect a recession in 3-6 months. This has been true long before microelectronics became a significant portion of the manufacturing sector.

How so?  https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data

Recessions highlighted in grey, every one I can see, the price drops significantly -after- the recession has started.  Before, it's hit or miss whether it's climbing or falling.

Anyone who believes they can predict a recession is falling afoul of the efficient markets hypothesis.  Markets are a random walk.

With regard to the "EMH", the usual suspects discuss it:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
Simply put, it states that asset prices reflect all available information, and is usually discussed with respect to securities.
It not only ignores irrational behavior (which some economists believe exists in nature), but also how business schools teach students how to avoid disclosing such knowledge to the competition.
From the wikipedia article:  'Samuelson published a proof showing that if the market is efficient, prices will exhibit random-walk behavior.  This is often cited in support of the efficient-market theory, by the method of affirming the consequent, however in that same paper, Samuelson warns against such backward reasoning, saying "From a nonempirical base of axioms you never get empirical results."'
Another view is contained in the Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox (q.v.) introduced by Sanford J. Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz in a joint publication in American Economic Review in 1980 that argues perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse.  (Also from wikipedia).

Checking in my personal library, I found a similar short discussion in  John Kay, "Other People's Money", Profile Books 2015, pp 69-70.  "There is a logical contradiction at the heart of EMH.  If all information were already in the price, what incentive would there be to gather such information in the first place?"  This is in his discussion of the CAPM, that applies EMH to "the equilibrium of an efficient market populated by rational agents each holding similar expectations."  Further, he states "the EMH at once captures an important aspect of reality--the absence of easy profits--and neglects an equally fundamental one:  that the search for profits tghat are not easy is the dynamic of a capitalistic system."

I am not a buyer of the EMH either.  It is, at best, "approximately right" given enough time...   given that it takes time for new information to disseminate, for a start.

[MT]

New records a glorious STM32F401CEU6 for only 64euro a unit in packs of 100!   Or what about a STM32F429IIT6 for only 176euro a pop, hurry only 20 left they claim!

[SilverSolder]

We can't afford the parts, and our customers can't afford our products.  Welcome to the world of high inflation!

[IDEngineer]

That's why the common statement is "the cure for high prices is high prices". Eventually something has to give, otherwise what - no commerce at all?

[tom66]

A new equilibrium is found where supply and demand meet.

Let's just hope it's not one where demand is nearly zero... that would be quite bad.

[nigelwright7557]

I wanted some ad9201's.
I previously bought them for about £5.
On RS and a few other sites they are now £15+vat.
Out of interest I looked on Ali Express and they are about £1 !
So bought a few and they work fine.

I seem to be PIC hopping at the moment depending on what is available.

[SilverSolder]

China might be the big winner if the high price levels stick, unless tariffed / walled out...    which is very difficult to sustain.

[Bud]

For some reason Linked In is filled with Chinese posts offering ST and other chips.

[floobydust]

ST Microelectronics revenues from Asia $8,670M verses Americas $1,525M. The numbers say there is no chip shortage, they're just all going to china.
2021 annual report 228 pages!
"net revenues of $12.76 billion, up 24.9% from 2020, with a gross margin increasing from 33.3% to 39.6%"
"We have not experienced any significant strikes or work stoppages in recent years." What a crock.
"Senior Management Bonus paid in 2021 (2020 performance) $11,476,929"

[Peter Taylor]

I live in Queensland, Australia, and we have been unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak.

For the past two years the international news has been full of stories about how Australia was utterly unaffected by COVID-19. I would have gone to check it out myself but for some unexplained reason travel to and from Australia was somewhat difficult during that same period. Maybe it was all the other people of the world, seeking to visit the one and only COVID-19 free continent...?

Not so fast.

COVID and the 'flu are rampant in Victoria (Australia) and the hospitals are filling up. I know plenty of people who have had COVID; some twice. About 20 to 30 people die from COVID each day in Victoria and it barely makes the news. In supermarkets, roughly 30% of people wear masks. In churches, a disgraceful 2% at best. People are attending superspreader events like concerts, sporting events and cinemas, and airports without wearing masks. My daughter in Paris says no-one wears masks in public there. Today, the US is number 1, France is number 4 and Australia number 5 for COVID deaths. For political reasons, the state government in Victoria is ignoring advice from medical experts to mandate people wearing masks. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.
 ...

Queensland and Victoria are states in Australia, which is both a country and a continent.

Antarctic bound ships leave from Victoria, and it's cold. The capital, Melbourne, is our first city, is very densely populated, and suffered the most severe lock-down laws on earth.

We all know that the flue happens there in Winter because their houses are closed and heaters on where germs love to incubate.

Here in Queensland, several thousand kilometres North near the Equator, I've not closed my door in thirty years.

It is perpetually warm and sparse (real country). No germ could survive here and we've had no lock-downs, no masks, no illness.

People from other countries know mine as well as I know theirs' ,  and there seems to be a simple misunderstanding.

I don't think they realize just how vast this land is, and that Europe could fit in Victoria several times.

I would suggest that anyone from overseas come visit us and live here. You Will Love It. 

[Mangozac]

Queensland and Victoria are states in Australia, which is both a country and a continent.

Antarctic bound ships leave from Victoria, and it's cold. The capital, Melbourne, is our first city, is very densely populated, and suffered the most severe lock-down laws on earth.

We all know that the flue happens there in Winter because their houses are closed and heaters on where germs love to incubate.

Here in Queensland, several thousand kilometres North near the Equator, I've not closed my door in thirty years.

It is perpetually warm and sparse (real country). No germ could survive here and we've had no lock-downs, no masks, no illness.

As an Australian I have to say, what a load of BS. You're using blanket statements about Queensland in the same way that you're chastising others for using blanket statements about Australia.

Queensland ranges from tropical climates in the North to subtropical climates down South and while the southern parts of the state usually don't get snow, it still gets cold. Also don't forget the fact that everybody in the Northern population centres live in airconditioning due to the oppressive humidity outside, so they're not exactly breathing fresh air all day.

There were in fact lockdowns in Queensland early on in the pandemic and, suitably, mask wearing was mandated in the times until a significant portion of the population were vaccinated. We have had significant COVID infection numbers this year and in fact the authorities are worried about the current accelerating case numbers.

The capital, Melbourne

Incorrect. The capital is Canberra.

I don't think they realize just how vast this land is, and that Europe could fit in Victoria several times.

I think you need to go back and do some geography lessons 

[cortex_m0]

The numbers say there is no chip shortage, they're just all going to china.

Which numbers are those?

"We have not experienced any significant strikes or work stoppages in recent years." What a crock.

Care to elaborate how that's a "crock"? Keep in mind there are legal penalties for putting false information in shareholders reports (in most countries).