How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[IDEngineer]

Speaking personally, I'm glad these squabbles are on the other side of the globe.

Of course, if things go nuclear, that won't matter very much. But I don't think a true nuclear conflict is likely. Even the most crazed-out president/premier/chancellor/etc. understands the impact of crossing that line.

I'm reminded of a friend who grew up in New York City. During his childhood there was an old woman who shuffled along the sidewalk carrying brown paper bags. He was informed that she was related to some sort of mob-like organization in the area and carried gobs of cash in those brown paper bags between their "places of business". Everyone knew who she was, and how much money she was carrying. But my friend was further informed that "she's the safest person you'll ever see" because absolutely everyone, down to the most drugged-out junkie in the gutter, knew exactly what would happen if they dared touch her or those bags.

Regardless of what illnesses or insanities are ascribed to Putin, Xi, or anyone else - I suspect the leaders of all nations worldwide know exactly what would happen if they dare touch the Big Red Button.

[IDEngineer]

it looks like things are getting worse in NA:  Last week they had 3 times more cuts than they've had on an average week in 2022.

What? In the last week the media here was jam-packed with celebrations of job growth.

As Dire Straits said, "One of them must be wrong."

EDIT: Here's the top of a Google search: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-unemployment-rate-fall-35-2022-08-05/

[Kasper]

it looks like things are getting worse in NA:  Last week they had 3 times more cuts than they've had on an average week in 2022.

What? In the last week the media here was jam-packed with celebrations of job growth.

As Dire Straits said, "One of them must be wrong."

EDIT: Here's the top of a Google search: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-unemployment-rate-fall-35-2022-08-05/

Great, now people on either side can 'win' arguments by merely saying 'do some resurch'.

[IDEngineer]

Sometimes I think that's the actual job of the media: Create fodder for both sides so the arguing never ends.

[Ed.Kloonk]

Sometimes I think that's the actual job of the media: Create fodder for both sides so the arguing never ends.

Say it isn't true!

[rsjsouza]

Sometimes I think that's the actual job of the media: Create fodder for both sides so the arguing never ends.

Say it isn't true!

Sometimes?

[MT]

CCP encircles and making noise on the sea at Taiwain and now dictates it will not tolerate separatists!
So as CCP invades Taiwan will US retaliate by blasting TSMC while shouting "no chip for you".....Weeell it's plausible in this current loony world.

[Kasper]

CCP encircles and making noise on the sea at Taiwain and now dictates it will not tolerate separatists!
So as CCP invades Taiwan will US retaliate by blasting TSMC while shouting "no chip for you".....Weeell it's plausible in this current loony world.

Does this mean we should start hoarding chips now?   

[KE5FX]

My guess is that China won't lay a finger on Taiwan.  The CCP is all bark, no bite. 

If they do invade, they'll pay a steep price to take a pile of useless rubble.  Without supplies and maintenance support from the West, ownership of TSMC won't do them any good, even if the key personnel remain and are either willing or forced to do business as usual.

Difficulty: this is basically what I said about Russia and Ukraine...

[SiliconWizard]

Let's not get into complex geopolitics matters that probably most of us do not even really understand - I don't think this is the right place for this.

That said, more to the point, whether the semiconductor shortage can get worse instead of easing, and in particular due to tensions with Taiwan, IMHO the answer is definitely yes.
TSMC is like the number one foundry at the moment. So yeah.

Sure China's invasion is not the only way things could go sour. A small new virus could very well get us there as well.

[PlainName]

I don't think it's straying into politics - it's more about practicalities and situations we might have to be dealing with very soon.

If they do invade, they'll pay a steep price to take a pile of useless rubble.

The overall opinion seems to be that China would want the TMSC facility in a working condition, but I think that might be subconsciously wishful thinking. Wouldn't a better move be to penalise the West by removing something they rely upon? Breaking TMSC would be like super sanctions, but without needing to police anything. So... perhaps don't be too sure the place is sacrosanct.

[tom66]

If they do invade, they'll pay a steep price to take a pile of useless rubble.  Without supplies and maintenance support from the West, ownership of TSMC won't do them any good, even if the key personnel remain and are either willing or forced to do business as usual.

I know two Taiwanese people who live in the UK, and their opinion of working under Chinese rule is pretty much akin to the opinion that anyone else in the West has.  It just wouldn't happen.  They would sooner rot in a jail somewhere.  You can see the rejection of closer "alignment" with China in the form of a trade deal signed in 2014, which led to the Sunflower movement.  (A lot of parallels with Euromaiden in Ukraine, with the then-Ukranian PM *refusing* to sign a deal, but the government survived this time.) 

And even if the workers turned up for their shifts, you would need almost everyone else on board.  Sabotage would be very easy.  I don't fully appreciate the process at these nanometer scales, but I would imagine a 1-2% more dopant or being a tiny bit "careless" with the cleaning of a wafer would all but guarantee failed devices and unacceptable yield.

Then you have the input products:  Japan supplies a film that almost no one else makes, essential for device production.  EUV lasers have short lifespans, requiring frequent servicing.  ASML would also need to supply spares.

Suffice to say if China invades everyone loses TSMC, for at least 5 years.  And this is a very, very good reason to keep EUV tech away from China.

[VK3DRB]

...Then you have the input products:  Japan supplies a film that almost no one else makes, essential for device production... 

Putting all our eggs into one basket is one reason we got into this mess. The Sumitomo plastics plant that was the only plastics plant on earth making chip encapsulation plastics going up in flames in the 90's should have served as a warning that single source is risky, but we were too stupid to heed it. Putin has served a warning that the world should not be dependent on resources from countries run by terrorists and dictators. The short-sighted idea of JIT has failed and globalisation needs a reboot.

Mind you, what excuse does Microchip have? They have multiple fab plants in various locations, including Thailand, and yet they are "zero stock" and won't supply chips to SME's or even hobbyists for another year. I feel they are helping the big end of town and ignoring the rest of us, like Texas Instruments is doing. Lets' face it, they would much rather sell to large manufacturers to ensure loyalty and future earnings, than to help the rest of us who are of little value to the bean counters.

By the way, a chip I just put in a design just doubled in price overnight by TI. Their existing stock doubled in price so it has nothing to do with increased costs. They are milking us for all its worth.

[JPortici]

Mind you, what excuse does Microchip have?

excuse #1: not everything is done in their fabs.
PIC32? ATSAM? all manufactured by TSMC, AFAIK probably some AVRs as well

if you are suscribed to their PCN service you should have seen they are qualifying some of their fabs to move production of many parts internally and i bet that takes time

Us, we were warned by our contractor in october 2020 to start stockpiling because at that time microchip communicated a change of lead times due to impending shortages, it's been almost two years of the same shit but at least they delivered what you ordered.

while at the same time ST just said that price was going to increase starting the day after even for backorders, nothing you can do lol.

so we started stockpiling. we didn't order at first because we could get by for a year but then at least once a week look at catalogs, see backorder quantities, order. we have reels coming in that has been sitting there on microchipdirect for weeks as

excuse #2: higher pin variants usually don't require a different firmware and their pinout isn't retarded. we can stuff a 44pin qfn inside a 28pin soic and route the tracks with zero effort

the parts i really can't find are some specific LDOs (which were replaced, pity.) and some single source parts: dsPIC33EV in 64 pins, but we're slowly moving away from that and the SoP with integrated lin transceiver, but as they were done by microchip, the pinout is NOT retarded: you can place the actual microcontroller there, all the lin signals are on the pins you would actually use to connect to a transceiver. Add one and a couple of isolating resistors and voila.

also some boost converters, but hey, where do i sign the petition to standardize the pinout of higher-than-average performance converters?

excuse #3: they have some sort of pay-to-get-ahead-of-queue program now, our contractor suggested we join as they did and got better help from sales, but we didn't partecipate, we managed to get by anyway.

[tom66]

Microchip are definitely one of the better ones, we can get most of their parts on 3-4 month lead times which you can plan around.  TI is a complete joke in comparison.

There are some exceptions, certain PIC24s are unsourceable for us so we've taken to lifting parts off dev kits for engineering units.   

[MT]

Does this mean we should start hoarding chips now?   

Yes, pick your favorite bag! 

[DC1MC]

Good bye, good bye, we're all gonna die 

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-orders-factories-to-shut-down-amid-fiercest-heat-wave-in-six-decades-122081601112_1.html

[tszaboo]

CCP encircles and making noise on the sea at Taiwain and now dictates it will not tolerate separatists!
So as CCP invades Taiwan will US retaliate by blasting TSMC while shouting "no chip for you".....Weeell it's plausible in this current loony world.

They cannot realistically invade, their army is too small for that. And that's not a hyperbole. You needed thousands of landing ships for a successful landing operation in WW2, and with the current anti-ship weaponry,  you likely need even more.
Even the russians would need 10x their current army to successfully occupy Ukraine.
It doesn't mean they wouldn't try though.

[Psi]

Sure China's invasion is not the only way things could go sour. A small new virus could very well get us there as well.

Yeah, that does have me a little concerned.
Was covid the main event or the warm up to get all the systems in place for handling the big one

[PlainName]

We haven't finished with covid yet. So far mutations have been kinder to the host, but there's no reason why future mutations won't go the other way.

A brand new virus might be pretty nasty, but we should have a good idea now as to how to handle that. For a new virus we might accept brief lockdown early on in order to gain time to develop mitigations, but would we do that for a nasty new covid mutation? Not a chance. In fact, I think a nasty mutation would have a reasonably clear field before it's taken seriously, maybe until people start dropping dead in the street.

[JPortici]

wait, you're not being blasted by monkeypox scaremongering?

[PlainName]

Got no monkeys, so...

[JPortici]

we don't either..
though https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON393
currently covid is just mentioned for the daily count only, ample space given to monkey pox and all the personalities and experts on covid that feared they would become useless in the new crisis to come gave a big sigh of relief (minus those that will be elected on september of course)

[Kjelt]

Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.

[BravoV]

Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.

With the current de-industrialization of the whole Germany and also many EU countries, stocking part like the good ole time is not wise especially with bleak future, especially with sky high inflation. 

For example, latest released data by Eurostat (source -> Euroindicators July 2022)