Author Topic: How is Chipageddon affecting you?  (Read 272314 times)

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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1475 on: August 18, 2022, 10:52:47 pm »
Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.

Just goes to show:  Nationalism is expensive.
 
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Offline Howardlong

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1476 on: August 19, 2022, 11:13:23 am »
Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.

Just goes to show:  Nationalism is expensive.

You could use the same argument to say "Nationalism isn't as expensive as globalism".

Using locally-produced products isn't automatically nationalism or protectionism, or necessarily more expensive.

When fuel and transport costs increase, naturally there is a move towards localised production as the balance weighs in favour one way or the other.

Furthermore, environmentalism is a very uncomfortable and strange bedfellow with globalism: for example, shipping goods across the planet is hardly environmentally friendly, and neither is greenwashing your local carbon footprint into someone else's backyard.
 
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Offline voltsandjolts

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1477 on: August 19, 2022, 12:02:08 pm »
Furthermore, environmentalism is a very uncomfortable and strange bedfellow with globalism

Yup. Capitalism is at odds with the environment and I see globalism as just a synonym for global capitalism.

While I empathise with low-income folks, if the current inflation stems globalism somewhat (even for a short while) it could benefit the environment. Many people have more than they need anyway and require encouragement to restrain their consumption. In the longer term, modern turbo-capitalism needs reigning in if the planet is to survive, starting with rationing of air miles.

 
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Offline madires

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1478 on: August 19, 2022, 01:51:50 pm »
 

Offline tszaboo

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1479 on: August 19, 2022, 03:21:41 pm »
Saw an interesting movie from some German manufacturers:
Deglobalisation is the new trend.
Going back manufacturing also half products in the own continent.
Also stocking parts in higher quantities due to the shortage is a breach with the decades old trend for logistics to deliver just in time and keep stocks low. They can not afford this anymore since just in time means nowadays months delay or too late.
The result is product price increases with double digit percents.

Just goes to show:  Nationalism is expensive.

You could use the same argument to say "Nationalism isn't as expensive as globalism".

Using locally-produced products isn't automatically nationalism or protectionism, or necessarily more expensive.

When fuel and transport costs increase, naturally there is a move towards localised production as the balance weighs in favour one way or the other.

Furthermore, environmentalism is a very uncomfortable and strange bedfellow with globalism: for example, shipping goods across the planet is hardly environmentally friendly, and neither is greenwashing your local carbon footprint into someone else's backyard.
Yeah, I had the choice last year to injection mould a part in China or locally. The mould was made there, because frankly, they do it better. It's a ~600KG shipment. I choose to make it here, it's an automated process, the price difference is not that much.
If I would've choose to make it there, then our production line would've shut down due to the extreme lockdown.

For example, latest released data by Eurostat
Yeah, I think most of us is looking for a very uncomfortable meeting about our salary with our boss.
 

Offline IDEngineer

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1480 on: August 19, 2022, 04:42:07 pm »
Just goes to show:  Nationalism is expensive.
Nah, nationalism isn't expensive. It just optimizes things differently than "globalism", JIT, etc.

Pick the business model and associated risks with which you're comfortable, and commit. Then hope you guessed correctly!
 

Offline Bud

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1481 on: August 19, 2022, 05:50:58 pm »
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 

Offline fourfathom

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1482 on: August 19, 2022, 05:54:18 pm »
China Attacks US Chip Handouts While Warning of Market Slowdown (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/china-attacks-us-chip-handouts-while-warning-of-market-slowdown) :popcorn:

Link paywalled  :--

Not for me, and I don't recall having a Bloomberg subscription...
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Offline strawberry

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1483 on: August 19, 2022, 06:29:08 pm »
didnt EU lost battle over solar panels due to Chinese government subsidies
cheap overproduction clear concurrence
 

Offline Ed.Kloonk

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1484 on: August 19, 2022, 10:56:00 pm »
Prolly deserves it's own thread for the obvious reasons.

https://www.freetronics.com.au/blogs/news/etherten-and-ethermega-victims-of-the-global-chip-shortage

Jon is considering having something else instead as the flagship. Wonder if he'll sell it to Jaycar!  :)

edit: I ended up starting a thread in Embedded. Come join the par-tay!
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/embedded-computing/freetronics-etherten-and-ethermega-victims-of-the-global-chip-shortage/
« Last Edit: August 20, 2022, 11:30:00 pm by Ed.Kloonk »
iratus parum formica
 

Offline MT

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1485 on: August 20, 2022, 02:37:44 am »
 

Offline madires

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1486 on: August 20, 2022, 12:47:30 pm »
Link paywalled  :--

Sorry! After the cookie overlay I get the complete article. The curse of IP geolocation?
 

Offline madires

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1487 on: August 20, 2022, 01:16:25 pm »
didnt EU lost battle over solar panels due to Chinese government subsidies
cheap overproduction clear concurrence

Yep, it's sickening hypocrisy. I think the Chinese government is afraid of falling behind even more after their failed attempt to boost the local chip industry. And this implies also that they will be much longer dependent on foreign chip makers (-> fear of sanctions), which brings us back to Taiwan.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2022, 02:03:22 pm by madires »
 

Offline floobydust

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1488 on: August 20, 2022, 05:56:53 pm »


They're not falling behind - there are limits doing acquisitions and theft and copying. Semi manufacturing actually requires skill and knowledge and tools they don't have.
Despite all the money spent by the chinese government, they don't have the results.
Early July, Xi is asking "Why is the IC still facing a bottleneck after 8 years of investment of 200 billion RMB?"
It's led to china is investigating at least 6-9 executives for corruption with the state-backed semiconductor "big fund". There is a huge problem with corruption in their semi fund.
 
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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1489 on: August 21, 2022, 03:07:40 pm »


They're not falling behind - there are limits doing acquisitions and theft and copying. Semi manufacturing actually requires skill and knowledge and tools they don't have.
Despite all the money spent by the chinese government, they don't have the results.
Early July, Xi is asking "Why is the IC still facing a bottleneck after 8 years of investment of 200 billion RMB?"
It's led to china is investigating at least 6-9 executives for corruption with the state-backed semiconductor "big fund". There is a huge problem with corruption in their semi fund.

Do you think they'll never "make it",  that they'll never be able to make good semis?  - or is it a matter of time?
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1490 on: August 21, 2022, 03:10:58 pm »
Just goes to show:  Nationalism is expensive.
Nah, nationalism isn't expensive. It just optimizes things differently than "globalism", JIT, etc.

Pick the business model and associated risks with which you're comfortable, and commit. Then hope you guessed correctly!

"Law of comparative advantage" would indicate that it is indeed expensive.   But it is rapidly becoming de rigeur, nevertheless.

The funny thing is that the freight of goods from China is as high as ever, so it is a good question if globalism has just gone "off radar" rather than disappearing...
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1491 on: August 21, 2022, 03:53:54 pm »
Yeah, I had the choice last year to injection mould a part in China or locally. The mould was made there, because frankly, they do it better. It's a ~600KG shipment. I choose to make it here, it's an automated process, the price difference is not that much.
If I would've choose to make it there, then our production line would've shut down due to the extreme lockdown.
And there are new problems at the horizon: China has severe water shortages and high temperatures so they can't run their power plants at full capacity while needing lots of power (for running airconditioning). The power shortage also causes shutdowns of factories.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Howardlong

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1492 on: August 21, 2022, 04:03:11 pm »
Just goes to show:  Nationalism is expensive.
Nah, nationalism isn't expensive. It just optimizes things differently than "globalism", JIT, etc.

Pick the business model and associated risks with which you're comfortable, and commit. Then hope you guessed correctly!

"Law of comparative advantage" would indicate that it is indeed expensive.   But it is rapidly becoming de rigeur, nevertheless.

The funny thing is that the freight of goods from China is as high as ever, so it is a good question if globalism has just gone "off radar" rather than disappearing...

It's not necessarily either/or, or even just short term economics, it's also about resilience in the supply chain, something that's now so obviously been lacking.

In enterprise IT, for example, we plan for outages not just in house but also from suppliers. This might be as mundane as having geographically separated datacentres, and physically redundant and physically diverse routing from multiple suppliers for cables & fibre, even down to using different building entry points.

(As an aside, the problem now in the cloud space for enterprise customers is the dependency lock-in on single provider proprietary PAYG cloud platform solutions, pretty much giving cloud providers too-big-to-fail status, and carte blanche for them to arbitrarily remove, change and/or charge for those proprietary solutions as they see fit. However, those single provider proprietary platform solutions have been the only way the MBa's have been able to financially justify the change to boards.)
 

Offline strawberry

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1493 on: August 21, 2022, 05:49:59 pm »
China is basically USSR
at some point USSR was better than USA in computing and stuff. then corruption, relatives in place of scientists, ...
technology is made by people (not money nor headlines)
 
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Offline rsjsouza

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1494 on: August 21, 2022, 06:10:50 pm »
China is basically USSR
at some point USSR was better than USA in computing and stuff. then corruption, relatives in place of scientists, ...
technology is made by people (not money nor headlines)
That is the same M.O. that is being attempted to be applied in the US and in many other western countries, with the difference that not relatives but activists in place of scientists, law makers, judges, etc.  |O
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Oh, the "whys" of the datasheets... The information is there not to be an axiomatic truth, but instead each speck of data must be slowly inhaled while carefully performing a deep search inside oneself to find the true metaphysical sense...
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1495 on: August 21, 2022, 09:44:19 pm »
China is basically USSR
at some point USSR was better than USA in computing and stuff. then corruption, relatives in place of scientists, ...
technology is made by people (not money nor headlines)

USSR was a totally centrally planned economy, everything based on central planning.  China seems to be combining elements of long term planning with elements of capitalism...   it does seem a more successful mix than the USSR ever was?
 

Offline IDEngineer

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1496 on: August 21, 2022, 10:25:06 pm »
USSR was a totally centrally planned economy, everything based on central planning.  China seems to be combining elements of long term planning with elements of capitalism...   it does seem a more successful mix than the USSR ever was?
In our travels to both countries, the symptoms of a centrally planned economy are visible everywhere. One of the most obvious characteristics is how manufacturing/sourcing of particular categories of goods are centralized into one city or region. That's still mostly true in China despite their attempts to mix in some free enterprise. For example, the Ningbo region has the lion's share of hydraulics and similar manufacturing. Shenzhen/Guangdong Province is the clear center of electronics. One of the cities is their finance capital (can't remember which right now), another is textiles, etc. They may be blurring the lines a bit from the past but even today if you seek sources of a specific product from China, the companies that produce those products are almost always clustered in a common geographic region. Once you know where one is, you know where most of them will be.

My wife's travels in Russia revealed the same thing. Regions are still largely devoted to a formerly assigned activity.

This structure may yield some efficiencies but it's very fault INtolerant, as recently demonstrated with China's "zero COVID" regional lockdowns. Exports of entire product segments slowed to a trickle depending upon which region was locked down at the moment. We experienced this firsthand. We had samples of a certain kind of pump ordered from three potential vendors so we could qualify multiple suppliers. A "zero COVID" lockdown hit the region and two of the vendors simply shut down. We continued communicating with their staff from their apartments via email and WeChat but they were quite candid, saying "we have no idea when we will be allowed back to the factory and cannot say when we can ship the prototypes". Fortunately in this specific case one of the three potential vendors was barely outside the "zone" and was able to ship on time. But this really sensitized us to how a regional "problem", COVID or otherwise, could turn off exports of entire categories of products overnight.

Caveat emptor!
 
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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1497 on: August 21, 2022, 11:24:15 pm »
So... how do you guys currently handle the shortage?

It got from a bit difficult to... almost *nothing* available at the moment. So how do you manage? Are all of you guy's projects currently either from stock you already had or just future products that are solely as a concept at the moment?
 

Offline tom66

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1498 on: August 22, 2022, 07:27:26 am »
Just designing in parts that are available, and making sure we buy enough stock.  Going to brokers for some components as needed (not just Win-Source, there are quite a few in the UK.)  Overall it's "painful" but not impossible to be manufacturing stuff right now but as I've said before our products have high price tags and low volumes, and therefore we can afford to both run around looking for bits with an EE verifying it's ok, and pay more for the parts.  If you are in the mid-to-low volume, mid-to-low price tag (maybe certain startups, SME's) I imagine it is much harder.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1499 on: August 22, 2022, 02:06:10 pm »
USSR was a totally centrally planned economy, everything based on central planning.  China seems to be combining elements of long term planning with elements of capitalism...   it does seem a more successful mix than the USSR ever was?
In our travels to both countries, the symptoms of a centrally planned economy are visible everywhere. One of the most obvious characteristics is how manufacturing/sourcing of particular categories of goods are centralized into one city or region. That's still mostly true in China despite their attempts to mix in some free enterprise. For example, the Ningbo region has the lion's share of hydraulics and similar manufacturing. Shenzhen/Guangdong Province is the clear center of electronics. One of the cities is their finance capital (can't remember which right now), another is textiles, etc. They may be blurring the lines a bit from the past but even today if you seek sources of a specific product from China, the companies that produce those products are almost always clustered in a common geographic region. Once you know where one is, you know where most of them will be.

My wife's travels in Russia revealed the same thing. Regions are still largely devoted to a formerly assigned activity.

This structure may yield some efficiencies but it's very fault INtolerant, as recently demonstrated with China's "zero COVID" regional lockdowns. Exports of entire product segments slowed to a trickle depending upon which region was locked down at the moment. We experienced this firsthand. We had samples of a certain kind of pump ordered from three potential vendors so we could qualify multiple suppliers. A "zero COVID" lockdown hit the region and two of the vendors simply shut down. We continued communicating with their staff from their apartments via email and WeChat but they were quite candid, saying "we have no idea when we will be allowed back to the factory and cannot say when we can ship the prototypes". Fortunately in this specific case one of the three potential vendors was barely outside the "zone" and was able to ship on time. But this really sensitized us to how a regional "problem", COVID or otherwise, could turn off exports of entire categories of products overnight.

Caveat emptor!


Interesting observations.  -  The same thing (concentration of industry) tends to happen here at home too, e.g. Silicon Valley, or Detroit, or ...   -  you get an ecosystem for making electronics, with all the right suppliers and people in the same area - it almost has to happen automatically as people seek it out (e.g. how did we all end up on the EEVblog?) :D

Perhaps the central planners just take it into account in the first place, and intentionally build out areas to cater to a specific type of industry.  Either way, I'm not sure if it is a good, bad, or indifferent thing to be doing.

Where central planning / communism typically has fallen down in the past is by not providing incentives (i.e. you can't get rich building up a successful company) - but that aspect is something that China (and Russa too) seem to have adopted in spades. 

I guess it is a bit like the situation with programming languages:  all the different ones crib the best ideas from the others, so in the long run they seem to be converging!
 


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