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How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?

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JPortici:

--- Quote from: james_s on September 16, 2021, 12:34:31 am ---While not guaranteed to be available either, a Diesel tractor will run on cooking oil, kerosene, and various other substances. A gasoline tractor (or car) can be run on ethanol, methanol, propane, CNG and other fuels with minimal modification. I remember reading that during WWII it was not uncommon in some regions to run vehicles from a wood gassifier, that's certainly an option I could make use of here. I realize a majority of people are not nearly as resourceful or handy with their hands as I am though.

--- End quote ---

Not current ones - in europe. Current vehichles are extremely picky about the fuel you put in them, plus you will obstruct all the stupid filters and scr systems in like zero time and make the vehichle uselss, because as per requirement from the law it won't even start if you remove the system and don't fool the ECU or reprogram it

Psi:
Yeah, I've already had to update the PCB designs for two of my products to use in-stock packages for the following components.
- USB FTDI chip from 28pin to 24pin version
- TVS array from SOIC to SO8 package
- MCU from SOIC to QFN

Miyuki:

--- Quote from: james_s on September 16, 2021, 12:29:34 am ---The thing that has me scratching my head is why possible long term side effects of a vaccine overshadow the possible long term side effects of a virus
....
My parents lived through the Polio epidemic and they remembered everyone lining up to get vaccinated shortly after the vaccine was developed. My mom doesn't recall meeting anyone who refused to get it.

--- End quote ---
Truth, I know people even young ones who have problems with breath after mild covid
On the other hand, some people have a big reaction to vaccination, for example, high fevers for 14 days and so. No long-term effects. But cannot afford not going to work for this long time. It is a big problem.


--- Quote from: JPortici on September 16, 2021, 05:50:30 am ---
--- Quote from: james_s on September 16, 2021, 12:34:31 am ---While not guaranteed to be available either, a Diesel tractor will run on cooking oil, kerosene, and various other substances. A gasoline tractor (or car) can be run on ethanol, methanol, propane, CNG and other fuels with minimal modification. I remember reading that during WWII it was not uncommon in some regions to run vehicles from a wood gassifier, that's certainly an option I could make use of here. I realize a majority of people are not nearly as resourceful or handy with their hands as I am though.

--- End quote ---

Not current ones - in europe. Current vehichles are extremely picky about the fuel you put in them, plus you will obstruct all the stupid filters and scr systems in like zero time and make the vehichle uselss, because as per requirement from the law it won't even start if you remove the system and don't fool the ECU or reprogram it

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Exactly, we no longer have a right to repair. No one can modify the fuel system anymore. First, you have no tools for it. And second, it is illegal and hard lobbied so it won't be released even at the end of the world situation. Modern ECU will just refuse to run a modified engine.


--- Quote from: Psi on September 16, 2021, 06:50:46 am ---Yeah, I've already had to update the PCB designs for two of my products to use in-stock packages for the following components.
- USB FTDI chip from 28pin to 24pin version
- TVS array from SOIC to SO8 package
- MCU from SOIC to QFN

--- End quote ---
 
Yeah that shortage of package is annoying but makes sense to limit variety to little boost production
I'll have to start using QFN MCUs on prototypes


--- Quote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 05:31:55 pm ---
--- Quote from: Miyuki on September 15, 2021, 05:21:59 pm ---... when that crazy commies decide to attack Taiwan for real (they won't, they are not totally insane)

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Ha ha, depending on the sanity and good judgement of Communists. In particular the CCP and Winnie. Have you been following developments in China recently?

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I know they are going faster and faster bask to hardcore communism because of their economy and population issues. But I think they will be just the new USSR (or big brother of DPRK) with closed borders (as they are now slowly closing) and trying to keep people silent. They are more of a barking dog with no teeth and barely standing.

bd139:
This is not going to stop in N years. This is the new status quo while we have just in time manufacturing everywhere. We pushed cost down at the cost of increasing risk. We happened to have a global event that tripped all the risks.

The only outcome is that costs increase massively to provide redundancy via multi sourcing.

Back when I worked in the defence sector we multi sourced most stuff and what we couldn’t was bought in massive quantities to act as stock for repairs and future supply. And the clients were charged up front for that.

What killed some of this is the ridiculous product refresh cycles we see these days. We need to slow everything down.

Psi:
My guess is that it will take about 1.5 years before we see a noticeable improvement. But will probably take another 1.5 years after that before it's back to something that resembles normality for common parts. However that assumes covid19 ends and nothing else comes along like covid20 etc.

I expect some chip variants or package versions probably wont come back at all.
The manufacturers will all be focused on fulfilling chips that are in-demand, so some chips that are approaching last time buy or simply not sold in large volumes will likely vanish a lot sooner than they would have otherwise.

I expect we will see consolidation between similar package options.
Where the same chip came in a 24 pin and 28 pin version they will likely drop one.

Drop in MCU variants with 2/4/8/16KB flash may see the 2KB and 8KB versions vanish because they know all their customers can simply upgrade to the next size version and any increase in cost is just part of the times.
Of course that does depend on if the flash size variants are actually a different die or not. You lose most of the advantage in dropping some lines if they're all the same die and it's just a binning process based on flash manufacturing errors.

There will also be long term strategizing in play. 
Thinking along the lines of "If we drop chip variants X and Y we can get our customers to upgrade to the more expensive chip variant now under the cover of a covid supply issues. Then they will be stuck on them after the dust settles."

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