Author Topic: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?  (Read 5113 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline eti

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • !
  • Posts: 1801
  • Country: gb
  • MOD: a.k.a Unlokia, glossywhite, iamwhoiam etc
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2021, 02:06:59 am »
Until it ends I'd think 😬
 

Offline james_s

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 21611
  • Country: us
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2021, 02:47:39 am »
Commodities pricing is just crazy. Almost all of them- coal, copper, aluminum, natural gas are 150-200% up. Coal is up 160%.
I wonder when china will cower and buy more Australian coal  :popcorn:   But factories in guangdong starving for power is a disaster heading into winter.
There is some kind of big bubble inflating, with energy, commodities and shipping costs.

My friend was saying scrap prices were way down, even on copper despite prices of new materials being way up. That was around 6 months ago though so I don't know if it's still the case.
 

Offline BBBbbb

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 302
  • Country: nl
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2021, 06:55:10 am »
My company recently started preparing for another wave of price increases in 2022, after we got projections from our component suppliers (NXP, ST, Cypress,... basically all of them)

 

Offline Psi

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 10385
  • Country: nz
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2021, 11:52:45 am »
It's also probably that manufacturers will try to keep the chip shortage going as long as they can, in a sort of unspoken price fixing scheme.
No one is in a hurry to lower prices back to normal levels, increase volume yes, but not lower prices.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2021, 10:05:03 am by Psi »
Greek letter 'Psi' (not Pounds per Square Inch)
 

Offline f4eru

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1117
  • Country: 00
    • Chargehanger
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #29 on: September 30, 2021, 02:07:10 pm »
Seems so.
Look at this !
"Order today, get them after 5 Years"


And it seems to be an official delivery date from ST, I suppose.
1286038-0
« Last Edit: September 30, 2021, 02:34:04 pm by f4eru »
 

Offline KE5FX

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2096
  • Country: us
    • KE5FX.COM
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #30 on: September 30, 2021, 04:04:48 pm »
My guess is they aren't trying to fix prices or even increase them deliberately, but to clear out a lot of old parts from their back catalogs.  A lot of these parts aren't coming back at all IMHO.  Not in 2027, not in 2037, not ever.

You don't post 5-year lead times if you expect to sell any parts at any price, whether high or low.  Frankly, they are probably trying to figure out how to sell their old fabs off.  There will never be a better time for them to do that.  "Never let a good crisis go to waste," as the politicians say.
 

Offline james_s

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 21611
  • Country: us
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #31 on: September 30, 2021, 08:21:13 pm »
It's also probably the manufacturers will try to keep the chip shortage going as long as they can, in a sort of unspoken price fixing scheme.
No one is in a hurry to lower prices back to normal levels, increase volume yes, but not lower prices.

I think it's likely for that to backfire. One company will decide to be the one that can deliver parts, and the companies that can't deliver will soon find their products designed out of things.
 

Offline Red Squirrel

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2757
  • Country: ca
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2021, 01:34:35 am »
Commodities pricing is just crazy. Almost all of them- coal, copper, aluminum, natural gas are 150-200% up. Coal is up 160%.
I wonder when china will cower and buy more Australian coal  :popcorn:   But factories in guangdong starving for power is a disaster heading into winter.
There is some kind of big bubble inflating, with energy, commodities and shipping costs.

Just bought around 10m of 8/3 teck cable and it cost me like $200.  :o   I was going to hold off since I hate buying when I know the prices are higher than they should be, but I really wanted to get this cable run done before the snow hits. But yeah it's nuts.   Running power from my shed's solar system to a separate sub panel in my house.  Thankfully I already have a full roll of 14/2 romex and 14/2 BX so I'm good as far as inside wiring goes.  I was hoping to add a couple 20a circuits to the server room but I can get by with 15a since even 12/2 wiring is crazy expensive right now. 
 

Offline f4eru

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1117
  • Country: 00
    • Chargehanger
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2021, 06:32:29 am »
I think it's likely for that to backfire. One company will decide to be the one that can deliver parts, and the companies that can't deliver will soon find their products designed out of things.
Short term gains, baby. It's all about the short term.

Doesn't matter if you blow up your business on the long run if you can do a buck today..
« Last Edit: October 01, 2021, 06:39:23 am by f4eru »
 

Offline MiyukiTopic starter

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 908
  • Country: cz
    • Me on youtube
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2021, 06:59:28 am »
Commodities pricing is just crazy. Almost all of them- coal, copper, aluminum, natural gas are 150-200% up. Coal is up 160%.
I wonder when china will cower and buy more Australian coal  :popcorn:   But factories in guangdong starving for power is a disaster heading into winter.
There is some kind of big bubble inflating, with energy, commodities and shipping costs.

Just bought around 10m of 8/3 teck cable and it cost me like $200.  :o   I was going to hold off since I hate buying when I know the prices are higher than they should be, but I really wanted to get this cable run done before the snow hits. But yeah it's nuts.   Running power from my shed's solar system to a separate sub panel in my house.  Thankfully I already have a full roll of 14/2 romex and 14/2 BX so I'm good as far as inside wiring goes.  I was hoping to add a couple 20a circuits to the server room but I can get by with 15a since even 12/2 wiring is crazy expensive right now.

Here in Europe cable prices look stable at a supplier I use
But steel is double and wood in the sky
 

Offline Psi

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 10385
  • Country: nz
Re: How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2021, 10:08:36 am »
My guess is they aren't trying to fix prices or even increase them deliberately

Yeah, i agree, but i think they will 'milk' the shortage for any extra money they can. Just like business usually do.

It's also probably the manufacturers will try to keep the chip shortage going as long as they can, in a sort of unspoken price fixing scheme.
No one is in a hurry to lower prices back to normal levels, increase volume yes, but not lower prices.

I think it's likely for that to backfire. One company will decide to be the one that can deliver parts, and the companies that can't deliver will soon find their products designed out of things.

Yeah, the system will self correct. but it will take longer than it should because of this occurring to some extent
« Last Edit: October 01, 2021, 10:11:11 am by Psi »
Greek letter 'Psi' (not Pounds per Square Inch)
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf