General > General Technical Chat
How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?
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Miyuki:
Just wonder what you think.
As it is still bad and not just in advanced semiconductors, all the way down.
A limited supply of optocouplers (fast ones), transistors are also out of stock, DC/DC bricks, nothing ... only thing reasonably stocked is passives
Berni:
It will most likely continue happening for at least 2 years.

The current fabs are very busy, some months ago some fabs got there production knocked out by a fire and similar disasters. They are building new ones, but that is going to take years to complete due to all the clean rooms and advanced machines required for one. In the mean time clients are buying up existing stock at the drop of a hat in fear of the components going out of stock making the issue even worse. Scalpers are buying up any stock they find and reselling it at literally 10x prices (Like common cheap ARM MCUs selling for >100$ a piece) since this is very profitable right now.

So it is going to take a while for them to catch up, stock to build up and for people to stop hoarding parts stock.
Zucca:
and also if you work under immense pressure it is more easy to be nervous and make some mistake.
The real questions is how long will it take to get back to the same quantity and quality.
TerraHertz:
I'll be the devil's advocate here, and say it may NEVER recover. Read the book The Collapse of Complex Societies, by Tainter.
What we are in looks a lot like the snowballing failures of interdependent systems discussed in that book. The same reason all societies in human history collapse. Except this time we have the most fragile, ridulously over complex, interdependent and easily broken economic/industrial system that ever existed. Major collapse processes NEVER halt and recover, they always proceed to the bottom. Time after time in history.

Not even allowing for oncoming new sources of disruption.
This Northern Hemisphere winter there are going to be severe food shortages worldwide, due to both major climate zone shifts (never mind the reason - warming or cooling) and also deliberate crop and food reserves destruction.  http://www.voterig.com/farmers1.mp4 The CCP is seriously proposing to 'integrate' Taiwan, by war if necessary. Taiwan won't be building many semiconductors while they dig out of the rubble. Something between 30% to 70% of the population of Western nations are injected with new mRNA tech that potentially may have severe health downsides over a few years (no one knows, because there were no safety trials.) Governments attempting to cut the 'nasty selfish unvaccinated' off from all economic interaction (and that won't be a peaceful process.) People in positions of power (even here in Australia) gloatingly talking about a 'Great Reset' and 'New World Order' (in which, quote "You will own nothing and you will be happy" - also not going to happen peacefully.) A senile, corrupt old pedophile in charge of the world's top superpower, and apparently colluding with the worlds nastiest superpower leaders (CCP) to sell out his own nation. Having just completely destroyed all possibility of trust in his nation's ability to honor their commitments.  The Saudis having recently signed a defence pact with Russia, and so there goes the petrodollar.

Here's a good video on the cascading supply chain disruptions:

Weird disruptions everywhere. Packages (mine) sitting for a month in LA waiting for space on some plane flying to Australia (because there are almost none.)  The Southern NSW pine plantations racing to fell and mill all the pine trees that burned in the early 2020 bushfires - and yet if you want to buy some pine lumber in Sydney, there is none to be had. Has been none for months I'm told.

Then there's potental black swan events.  Signs the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands might be about to do its big landslip trick. https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami

and simulation result:


At least if we wanted to try thowing some virgins, or more appropriately politicians into a volcano to appease the wrathful Gods, there's a really impressive one going in Iceland at the moment. Search on youtube for iceland volcano. I recommend this entertainiment while waiting for your packages to arrive. Especially the volcano drone videos.
JPortici:

--- Quote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 10:43:14 am ---I'll be the devil's advocate here, and say it may NEVER recover. Read the book The Collapse of Complex Societies, by Tainter.

--- End quote ---

I usually enjoy your conspiracy theories, this time it's a bit too much for my taste though i agree with some points
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