I cannot build temperature controllers for chemicals, because part are not here. They cannot use the controller to transport the chemicals, which is then used (for example) to paint your car. So you end up having delays of months for your car, because a single DC-DC controller is not in stock. Lead time: 52 weeks.
Because people cannot buy new cars, they (or dealers) are buying the basket case cars that normally wouldn't be worth fixing.
Then they buy up all the parts to fix said car, thusly depleting the supply of spare parts. Cars are being written off as they cannot buy a window control ECU, within the time the insurance will put up with, paint is not the only issues.
It doesn't make a lot of sense in the big picture to release a new Iphone or Playstation.
All it takes is one small company making a limited production specialized device/part to derail an entire supply chain because they cannot get a 99c voltage regulator.
I know of one man company that sells lots of a particular module to a big company who use it in PLC. You wouldn't guess from looking at it, hate to think what would happen if they exhaust the last huge box he shipped them.
Element14's website is reporting some STM chips on backorder, expected delivery date in 2027!
So either their supplier really hate them, or these are worst case dates as they haven't been given a proper answer.
Imagine your life, when you cannot buy a new fridge when the old one dies, because the adhesive used for the door sealant is not available.
Not need to imagine, we already had that with compressors. Factory making castings or something for the compressors also make parts for other things.
So they got hit with more demand from both sides, supply issues of their own, and increased shipping costs. Then they had to make all those dual compressor freezers for vaccines.
Supply and demand chain is completely upside down.
Demand has increased while supply has decreased, that rarely happens, plus it's happening across many areas.
Toyota changed their Just In Time policy after the 2011 earthquake, to create stockpiles of components from factories that take a long time to restart after such a disruption. Semiconductors were top of the list. Plus it was always Almost Just In Time, not that anyone else paid attention to that minor difference, and that it meant having a stockpile of some sort.
Things will only go back to normal with semiconductors when I can go onto Digikey/Mouser/RS/Element14 and just buy the parts for a prototype.
It's just not practical for individuals/companies to have their own personal stash of everything they
might decide to use in a design.
Is that date in 2027? I hope not, and only STM are that screwed up.
Is the semiconductor supply problem too tightly bonded to the virus outbreaks to solve one without solving the other. It appears so given what's happening in Malaysia at the moment.
I'm going with end of 2025 to solve this calculated as:
1 year to fix current disruptions, Taiwan's water shortages, Texas blackout, Malaysia chip testing/packaging staffing, that fire in a fab, FUBAR logistics in general.
1 year to clear backordered products.
1 year to restock suppliers and deal with pent up demand, and delayed production.