Author Topic: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry  (Read 43203 times)

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Online IconicPCB

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #125 on: December 12, 2018, 10:46:50 pm »
And now for a sobering thought....

Imagine China with a middle class consumer base of 300 million consumers.

Wait... that's a reality.. Chinese middle class is approximately the size of American population.
 

Offline BrianHG

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #126 on: December 12, 2018, 11:01:51 pm »
The low-down so far:

 
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Offline beanflying

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #127 on: December 13, 2018, 12:04:56 am »
Makes more sense than the 'Truth' you might get on FOX or similar. Not one of subscribers but from time to time his videos run across my recommended ones on youtube and I do like his tongue in cheek style if not always his take on something.
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Offline cdev

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #128 on: December 13, 2018, 12:46:00 am »
Its impossible for any of us outsiders to even remotely grok the huge problems of mega-countries like India and China, which both have over 1.5 BILLION people.

Thats almost half the world's entire population in those two mega-countries alone.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 12:47:33 am by cdev »
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Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #129 on: December 13, 2018, 12:52:43 am »
What manufacturing base. All the tools and equipment and materials are made in China  :-DD

You sold out. Can't go crawling back now. It'll be like the Russians eviscerating the heavy machinery and production capacity from the Eastern Bloc. A 30-40 year mission to build everything from scratch again.
Meanwhile, China has plenty of other markets to sell to. Asia is a massively larger market and the EU is larger too. Cutting trade relations with the US may dampen growth somewhat, but it won't be the total reset scenario that the US has to face while they essentially build their manufacturing from scratch. The US needs China more than China needs the US.

But once more, China won't do that. They own a fair part of US assets and debt. Why would they burn down the house of which they own the kitchen? They want control, not complete destruction.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 12:57:24 am by Mr. Scram »
 

Offline cdev

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #130 on: December 13, 2018, 01:16:53 am »
China is in a better economic situation than many other developing countries. But look at all that pollution. Thats a ticking time bomb as far as their health is concerned.
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Offline raptor1956

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #131 on: December 13, 2018, 03:31:35 am »

Yes, given the fact that a substantial percentage of goods sold in the USA is made in China there would indeed be trouble if a full on trade war broke out.  The Chinese would see enormous numbers of people thrown out of work while the US would have to employ millions to rebuild our manufacturing base.  There would be problems for sure but the rebuilding would begin the turnaround.


Brian

You seriously you think a complete breakdown of trade with China would hurt them but the USA would magically employ millions to rebuild its manufacturing base and turnaround using pixie dust and miracles?  :palm:

Perhaps the more likely outcome would be you rely more heavily on the other low cost countries for your imports and your manufacturing base remains in its current state or worse due to the damage this decision would to to your already perilous economic state.


Didn't say that, yes a full scale trade war will be devastating to both sides and that certainly includes the USA.  However, if the USA then focuses on rebuilding its manufacturing that WILL employ millions and that will offset and ultimately reverse the damage.


Brian
 

Offline raptor1956

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #132 on: December 13, 2018, 03:34:07 am »
What manufacturing base. All the tools and equipment and materials are made in China  :-DD

You sold out. Can't go crawling back now. It'll be like the Russians eviscerating the heavy machinery and production capacity from the Eastern Bloc. A 30-40 year mission to build everything from scratch again.

Not quite, the USA has lost about half of its manufacturing base and if current trends continue it will all be gone in about 40-50 years.  But, that still mean we have a fairly substantial manufacturing base even now. 


Brian
 

Offline cdev

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #133 on: December 13, 2018, 03:37:25 am »
The last few factories Ive been in have been big spaces where a lot was going on but not very many almost no people. The era of large scale manufacturing employment - at least of human workers, is quite likely almost over.

"E-commerce" is being looked to as some kind of savior in many countries and thats an even bigger mistake.

Obviously those folk have no idea what e-commerce actually involves. Its not a job creator either, compared to what it replaces.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 03:39:20 am by cdev »
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Online coppice

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #134 on: December 13, 2018, 03:39:35 am »
What manufacturing base. All the tools and equipment and materials are made in China  :-DD

You sold out. Can't go crawling back now. It'll be like the Russians eviscerating the heavy machinery and production capacity from the Eastern Bloc. A 30-40 year mission to build everything from scratch again.

Not quite, the USA has lost about half of its manufacturing base and if current trends continue it will all be gone in about 40-50 years.  But, that still mean we have a fairly substantial manufacturing base even now. 

Brian
The 50% the US lost is not evenly distributed. The US lost most of some types of manufacturing, and very little of others. The areas where there are few skilled people left in the US may be very hard to restart.
 

Offline beanflying

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #135 on: December 13, 2018, 04:07:57 am »

Didn't say that, yes a full scale trade war will be devastating to both sides and that certainly includes the USA.  However, if the USA then focuses on rebuilding its manufacturing that WILL employ millions and that will offset and ultimately reverse the damage.


Brian

 :bullshit: If it were viable in anyway why isn't it already being done? It would remain nonviable even in the case of China being excluded. Walmart and Costco would just switch to another Asian Country for it's stock.

Simple economics tells us it isn't viable and practical to make $20 toasters and kettles in a Western wage earning economy even with the most automated factories. Interested to know how you think the USA can make low end products to compete on price without using pixie dust?

One of your large remaining industries vehicles even with handouts and tariffs for protection is shrinking with continuing job losses. Not terminal yet but they had better sort it out before it gets added to the pile of industries in an unrecoverable spiral. Protection doesn't work!
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Offline cdev

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #136 on: December 13, 2018, 04:25:37 am »
Thats just acting, beanflying. Posturing, Acting, look up "overcompensating".

The people who run this country are greedy. They don't want to invest money in educating people because under their ideology it makes no sense to employ them. So they have to pretend they are trying to preserve low paying jobs. This is happening all around the world in every country. The leaders actually couldn't care less.

They don't want the responsibility at this point in history of the expectations put on them that they will act in our best interests because they want to act in their best interests which are very different than ours.

They are pretending in a really evil and cynical way that anybody who can read and write and show up to work can get a good job but they know its bullshit, or course. That hasn't been true since the 70s. The same thing with health insurance.

In many cases they are doing this because they simply don't care about most people. Its not personal, they just don't care. They would like the growing numbers of poor people to just go away, and 'become somebody else's problem'. as they put it.

They are profoundly clueless people who sometimes almost always literally had everything handed to them on a silver platter. They don't know why voters expect so much since we're not the ones paying their campaign expenses. Most are just indifferent, however the worst of them are really evil, mean spirited people. Who would prefer to give the good jobs to others, elsewhere.

They resent the middle class perhaps because narcissists generally dislike "needing" people for any reason, so they tend to try to devalue the worth of people with practical skills. They are fighting an old war between management and labor.

Which is really short sighted.

I wouldn't be surprised if many other countries leadership right now were similar. It seems the world is going through hard times as far as leadership goes.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 04:38:51 am by cdev »
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 
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Offline beanflying

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #137 on: December 13, 2018, 05:01:19 am »
Leadership by popularity and because of connections made or inherited then driven by polls. Yep that works for the good of no one  :palm: Australia is not much better and you need to go back a good number of years to find good leadership and government 'for the people' rather than 'for our sides particular ideology'.

When I made my first trip to the US for work a bit over 25 years ago the thing that struck me even then was the disparity the top and bottom of society. The idea of helping yourself rise up and the American Dream were in places no where to be seen at that time. Dropping South of the Loop in Chicago for the first time was interesting to say the least. The factories I went to at the time looked like they were stuck in a time warp and in need of capital spend even then.

At least here we have a reasonable chance no matter how poor your family may be of going on to University (albeit you leave with a debt) and thanks to Universal Free Public Health even the less well off don't suffer poor health outcomes.

Viva La Revolution
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Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #138 on: December 13, 2018, 11:01:47 am »
If Wun Hung Lo has not done anything wrong, why are the comrades in the People's Hypocrisy of China so upset? This issue has exposed the hypocrisy and elitism of the Central Committee of the so-called Communist Party. Any wonder why reporting the elite's personal wealth will make you disappear in China.
 

Offline Wan Huang Luo

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #139 on: December 13, 2018, 03:51:08 pm »
I think in China the lines between high-ranking businesspeople and government officials are blurred. In Meng's case, that certainly seems to be true. So their upper echelons respond accordingly.
 

Offline edyTopic starter

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #140 on: December 13, 2018, 03:58:49 pm »
My thoughts on working and production and consumerism...

Ultimately the supply of cheap goods and labor whether it be in China or other countries has been able to supply a high standard of living in richer countries. By "higher" I don't necessarily mean better quality necessarily or healthier, although they would have more resources to pay for things that do help in those ways. What I mean is that people can buy goods and accumulate a lot of stuff. Consumerism, commercialism, and also waste. This situation though is unsustainable.

Part of what we may be seeing over the next stage in societal evolution is less focus on cheap disposable wasteful consumer goods and more on recycling, reusing, repurposing, refurbishing, etc. I'm not saying for every type of product, obviously tech keeps advancing. But there are things that it may be better to pay for quality and use it longer, than pay cheap and throw it out all the time.

Chinese and other cheap goods have allowed Canada, USA and other countries to keep relatively stagnant wages with little inflation over much longer periods of time than before. It has also allowed the growth of Walmart, Amazon, eBay and so on, and killed most of the brick-and-mortar stores like Sears that catered to the middle-class. However, my Chinese toaster and Chinese-made leather shoes do not last as long as my German toaster and Italian shoes.... But the average worker who is not seeing a raise in their salary in years does't care because they can still buy stuff and enjoy a comfortable wage.

For US, Canada and others to abandon China and other cheap-goods manufacturing countries would be more psychology than anything. They have to abandon this idea of buying cheap and disposable and keep stuff longer and repair things. No more phone-update cycle of 2 years. People need to keep their tech for 5 years and longer. That may be the most difficult pill to swallow.
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Offline BravoV

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #141 on: December 13, 2018, 06:00:38 pm »
The Western politics is filled with so much bullshit. Laws are not important, human right is.
According to what you guys say, if one supports dictator governments (in this case, Iran), even if he/she is lawful in his/her country, he/she should be punished.
And if one fights for human rights, even if he/she violated laws, he/she should be freed.

What laws ? And what human right are you talking about ?  :-//

Fresh from memory as these happened in 2018.

Look what happened to Russia that get bullied in the Sergei Skripal assassination accusation, even Russia "denies" it.

.. and now compared to ..

Jamal Khashoggi butchering at Turkey (NATO member), even officials from Arab Saudi "admitted" it, see how US and puppies (UK, Canada, Australia, French etc) reaction ? They can not even make up their mind how and where to stand in position on this matter, let alone react to it.  :palm:

Now, imagine this ...

China officials publicly admit they've sent a dead squad to kill one of China critic abroad, exactly like Arab Saudi did to Khashoggi ...

 ... must be really funny to watch how US & puppies reaction on this.  :-DD
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 06:05:44 pm by BravoV »
 
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Offline Wan Huang Luo

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #142 on: December 13, 2018, 06:15:24 pm »
Blueskull, your comment is unacceptable and also liable to get you in trouble.
 

Offline cdev

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #143 on: December 13, 2018, 06:41:27 pm »
Corporations, nomatter who or what they are, should not be above the law.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 06:43:48 pm by cdev »
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Offline edyTopic starter

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #144 on: December 13, 2018, 06:47:31 pm »
Before this thread gets derailed and locked by the admin, let's get back to the main subject!  ;)

Mrs. Meng Wanzhou is now released on bail, she is able to roam around Vancouver, but must stay in her house at night. Otherwise she is free to go about her daily business while awaiting official decisions. She wears an ankle bracelet and has a personal security detail following her (possibly as much for her protection as it is for making sure she doesn't flee).

What we know is that the USA could take it's sweet time actually to file the extradition papers. That means Mrs. Wanzhou could be stuck in her Vancouver home for months. The longer the better, perhaps, as it could give her time for some way out of the extradition. Sadly, Trump claims he is not above using this to "twist arms" during trade negotiations with China, something even his own party warned him against. Justice is blind and people should be treated fairly... not some political weapon to be used to gain advantages when needed.

Here is some more details on the story:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4756109/meng-wanzhou-extradition-jody-wilson-raybould/

BTW: Mrs. Wanzhou ordered a whole bunch of boxes of pizza the other day while dozens of news reporters were outside her house filming and trying to probably get an interview with her or catch a photo. After the pizza guy delivered the pizza, she took a couple boxes in and gave all the other boxes to the reporters outside.  :-+

It sounds like Canada is being very careful each step of the way and making sure to drag it's heels to delay the process as long as possible, ensure justice is served, while Mrs. Wanzhou tries to live out her time as comfortably as possible in her Vancouver home, where she is free to roam around the city.

Meanwhile.... back in China we have 2 Canadians who are now being detained (in probably not very nice conditions, certainly not as nice as Mrs. Wanzhou) for doing what is seemingly considered anti-Chinese activities by the Chinese government, *in* China. Like that action is any surprise. The fact that China decided to act on it now is precisely because of Mrs. Wanzhou's arrest by Canadian authorities. If and when she is extradited to the USA to face charges, we may see US citizens in China also getting "removed". I am sure China already has a target list if they aren't working on one, ready to press the button depending on what happens. If I was a US citizen in China I would have bought a ticket out already.

Now while all this is going on, hopefully business as usual for the rest of us. I just ordered 3 items from China off eBay and I hope they arrive in a reasonable amount of time and in good shape. Many businesses rely on Chinese supply chains and how and what will be the outcome of these trade negotiations nobody knows. If tariffs are charged to increase the cost of Chinese goods, those extra tariffs will simply fill up the US government coffers. Chinese stuff will *still* be cheaper even with tariffs.

For example, something ordered from China may cost me $1, whereas here it will cost be $2-3 from a local supplier (and even then it is made in China, the local supplier just imports it). Even with 50% markup, I am still paying less on the Chinese item. If it is a business using Chinese components, it will just drive up their BOM cost even if they are assembling locally and increase their overall product cost. The field of play is so uneven that tariffs would have to multiply Chinese goods by 2-5x costs to even make it even! How is Trump going to approve or negotiate that?

By the way, I'm talking about electronics stuff... not other types of goods which I am not familiar with. Perhaps the outcome of these trade negotiations is not to even out electronics (which seems hopeless) but to force China to buy more US products they don't have (like pork bellies, grain, etc). The sum end-game would then even out trade, but I doubt it will affect electronics components costs and therefore tariffs on these just go to penalize consumers on stuff we cannot buy anywhere else anyways.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 06:58:35 pm by edy »
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Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #145 on: December 13, 2018, 07:17:08 pm »
The law being an absolute authority is a silly position. It's estimated the average American commits three felonies a day every day, mostly because of the massive amount of laws being applicable at any time. These are generally not people out to break laws, just normal people. Law makers can't even actually say how many laws are applicable at any one time, so pretending anyone can reasonably adhere to them all isn't realistic.

This is actually one of the arguments against total surveillance. It would incriminate each and any one of us, which would allow governments to target people at will. Functioning societies have always been about a reasonable application of law which takes the reason for the law to exist into account, rather than laws being absolute.
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #146 on: December 13, 2018, 07:29:17 pm »
For US, Canada and others to abandon China and other cheap-goods manufacturing countries would be more psychology than anything. They have to abandon this idea of buying cheap and disposable and keep stuff longer and repair things. No more phone-update cycle of 2 years. People need to keep their tech for 5 years and longer. That may be the most difficult pill to swallow.
Put me in the front line for it,edy. The idea of buying chip has been long abandoned, my phone is 6 years old and updating it is the least of my worries.
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Offline BravoV

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #147 on: December 13, 2018, 07:29:49 pm »
Before this thread gets derailed and locked by the admin, let's get back to the main subject!  ;)

... <snip> ....

How is Trump going to approve or negotiate that?

... <snip> ...

Understand you're trying to pull back and stay on the subject on electronics market, but sorry, you have to see the whole picture to understand, that what are you questioning basically is meaningless.

Again, I don't mean to derail, and drag these into politic, but the fact is this is all politic moves.

Just search for news, subject "Huawei", you see, there have been recent massive "coordinated" attack at multiple fronts on Huawei product embargo, not only in US, but to all US puppies, say like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Western European countries and heck, even recently Japan just officially joints the Huawei embargo club, really, poor Japan as they depends heavily on China and they aware of it.

All of these are coordinated and planned steps, starting from ZTE .. and it seems like Chinese can't be easily provoked, then US raises the bar, like adding up with recent multiple military provocation at Taiwan strait and South China Sea near their military base by US war ships, and then with this recent these Huawei massive global embargo + their CFO hostage arrest.

All US want to see is China's next "move", cause all the provocations seems doesn't yield as US expected, seems like China still really calm and cool headed.

And also, please, stop calling on how Canada's court and laws has the power on the CFO extradition to US, cause once you see the bigger picture, its sounds like a joke.  :-DD

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #148 on: December 13, 2018, 07:40:11 pm »
Go ask Lee Kuan Yew. See how his "absolute fear to law" solution made Singapore the most developed country in Asia.

One of his quotes being between being loved and being feared, I have always believed Machiavelli was right. If nobody is afraid of me, I'm meaningless.

Lee Kuan Yew, Mao Ze Dong and Chiang Kai Shi are all some of the most successful dictators, and both did absolutely great things to their countries, though horrible.
Fear is worthless, in the sense that it disappears as soon as you turn around. Respect is much more productive, as it stays when you're gone. It's also much harder to earn, which is why lesser men tend to prefer fear as their main instrument.
 

Offline bd139

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Re: Huawei arrest, US-China relations and effect on electronics industry
« Reply #149 on: December 13, 2018, 07:44:07 pm »
Fear works on the average man.

Respect works on the intelligent people.

Sad but true. Look at management styles in technology vs manufacturing firms for analogous behaviour.
 


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