Author Topic: I have the feeling that the whole trade war starts from a pile of nonsense.  (Read 89719 times)

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Offline technixTopic starter

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Well, being lap dogs is a problem for all small countries. :-[
To some extent they have to, either that or huddle together to form a union of some sort that can pull its own weight, for example EU, for example ASEAN.

Democracy is not about the power to vote. It's about distrusting the rulers.
This sentiment creates fracture within a country, separating people into two classes bitterly against each other.

The Obamacare was cancelled because those who voted for Trump didn't trust the other party.
Partisanship is blinding. This defeats the purpose of democracy where every citizen is supposed to vote in at least their own good.

And that's the beauty of democracy. The leaders are always in check.
This requires the leader to be honest, at least be forced to be honest. With a leader that can lie without regard, few checks and balances would still work.

Democracy is a political system with a feedback loop.
If only the feedback loop is connected somewhere.

"Hell is other people" (Sartre). When the US interfered radically, for the benefit of China, in the "internal process" of Japan, by throwing a bomb in their heads, yay! Now that you invited this monster to your turf, dang!
Two problems:
1) It was Kuomingtang's time, and I am not sure how they feel about US intervening. If Taiwan's current behavior is anything to go by, they likely don't mind it.
2) It was at total war as part of World War II, so different rules apply.

At the same time, it will be interesting to watch because if China reduces censorship on the Internet, there will surely be people trying to spread Westernism inside.
I'm speaking from experience, lots of idiotic ideas from the West are finding their way into Poland, from assorted SJWism to holocaust denial. I wasn't used to seeing it before 2010.
My main hope these days is that Westerners will finally hit the wall and find it impossible to pretend they really believe what they preach, at least some of them.
The censorship is ineffective at best if you have the know-how. There is actually little incentive for CCP to patch it, since it forms a nice knowledge barrier to information - highly educated people are allowed free information since they are more likely to talk than rebel, and less educated people are a lot less likely to be riled up and riot.

As of Westernism and SJWism, CCP is listening in and implementing what they think are good ideas, for example non-political charitable NGO's, for example feminism.

I have the feeling that US lacked a sense of real danger due to its geography. To the north there is a solid ally, to the south there is nobody that has a military that can actually do anything to it, and to the east and west there are vast oceans blocking access. On the other hand within the Old World EU and Russia share a border, Russia and China also share a border, making things a lot more delicate to deal with since opposing ground forces can just roll over and fight.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 03:51:39 am by technix »
 

Offline apis

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I lived those years and statistics are out there for everyone to see but I get young people trying to explain to me how bad the Franco years were.  After Franco's death Spain has never again had the GDP growth or the low unemployment of those years. Not even close.
I don't know that much about the modern history of Spain so I can't tell if that is true. I do know that in many places after the war, there was a period of soberness and rebuilding that led to an economic boom. Especially in countries that were neutral during the war like Spain and Sweden. Sweden also did very well during those years, while we had democracy, so maybe the problem isn't democracy but something else.

Crime statistics (and statistics in general), are not easy to compare. Numbers are easy to compare of course but they often mean very different things. The number of convictions isn't the same as the number of crimes and criminals. Low crime rates might be because the police wasn't very efficient, high rates might be because the laws have changed and become stricter or because more people are caught, and there might be creative counting involved to make things look better for political reasons. After "mee too" there have been a dramatic increase in sex crime around the world, or is it maybe that more people are reporting the crimes and more people are getting convicted? In Sweden the laws have also become much stricter recently, more things are considered rape and the amount of evidence needed to be convicted for rape is continually being lowered, so the number of rape convictions go up but the actual raping (in the original sense) is decreasing.

the dictator only cares about making himself and his family rich.
I'm not sure if I could name one dictator who did it for the money.
Well, they want power, etc etc. Money is ultimately just means to an end, it gives you power to do as you like and if you're king you have the ultimate power. I'll admit it's an oversimplification, but look around, what about Belarus, what about the Kings of Saudi Arabia and others in the middle east (Saddam Hussein), or North Korea. Someone mentioned the Vatican so how about the popes? What about Mugabe or His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular. Some say Putin might be among the richest in the world.

Maybe in some minor 3rd world countries? :-//
Maybe having brutal greedy dictators has something to do with being 3rd world countries?

Quote from: Hitler
What was impossible to understand was the boundless hatred they expressed against their own fellow-citizens, how they disparaged their own nation, mocked at its greatness, reviled its history and dragged the names of its most illustrious men in the gutter.
That rings quite true, particularly when I look at Westerners. Go figure.

Nah, international law is a joke where weaklings pretend to be able to lay claim to the owners of power based on arbitrary rules which are only ever as relevant as those with power choose to make them. True sovereignty is about having the power to control your land, literally. Homegrown power and the power of allies.
I approve. I will add that as long as Americans have more guns than citizens and some balls to use or threaten to use them when appropriate, they are sovereign people. And the US does seem to be more stable than any country in Europe, even despite being somewhat democratic.
Like you just did you mean? Especially the authoritarian far right in Europe keep whining and complaining about western culture and how much they hate it. They keep mocking western institutions and ideals. All nationalists I've ever heard build their rhetorics around the idea that their countries and western culture are rotten and decadent.

I'm speaking from experience, lots of idiotic ideas from the West are finding their way into Poland, from assorted SJWism to holocaust denial. I wasn't used to seeing it before 2010.
It almost sound like you believe Poland isn't and has always been part of the west, Europe and western culture?  ???
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 09:42:58 am by apis »
 

Offline magic

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Eastern Europe was isolated behind the Iron Curtain when the West ran amok with all that critical theory and postmodernist mumbo-jumbo and "questioned" away all their common sense.
When we were part of the West, nobody was saying that diversity is a strength, quite the contrary.
 

Offline technixTopic starter

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Here is some theory I have heard in China: the purpose of this trade war is to achieve at least one of the following:
1) Force an economical regression of no less than 50%, preferably 75% or more.
2) Fracture China into several states, that is deeply at war with each other. EU-style confederation is not an option.
The goal of this is to guarantee no competition to US in any way.
 

Offline BravoV

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Here is some theory I have heard in China: the purpose of this trade war is to achieve at least one of the following:
1) Force an economical regression of no less than 50%, preferably 75% or more.
2) Fracture China into several states, that is deeply at war with each other. EU-style confederation is not an option.
The goal of this is to guarantee no competition to US in any way.

Looking at the ways the orange face dude managed the international relationship affairs as he is just good at bluffing, I would say China should do just few stunts, say like sinking one or two or the whole fleet of the big US military ships when crossing Taiwan strait.

That will send a crystal clear message.

Offline soldar

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Here is some theory I have heard in China: the purpose of this trade war is to achieve at least one of the following:
1) Force an economical regression of no less than 50%, preferably 75% or more.
2) Fracture China into several states, that is deeply at war with each other. EU-style confederation is not an option.
The goal of this is to guarantee no competition to US in any way.

That is just silly. there is no way in the world any of those things could happen as a result of this trade war. No way.

The purpose is for Trump to create chaos and thrive in that chaos and be the center of all attention. There is no ulterior motive because the guy is totally superficial and has no understanding of anything. He is like a baby saying "look at me playing with my poop!".

He will get the support of some Americans who will support him no matter what.

The real consequences in the long run will be that the Chinese people will support their country and in the long run, China will gain more than the USA and come out ahead.
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Offline magic

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Yes, it's just chaos for the sake of chaos and not reacting to decades (or perhaps centuries :P) of unsustainable economic policies.
Quote
In the 17th and 18th centuries, the demand for Chinese goods (particularly silk, porcelain, and tea) in Europe created a trade imbalance between Qing Imperial China and Great Britain. European silver flowed into China through the Canton System, which confined incoming foreign trade to the southern port city of Canton. To counter this imbalance, the British East India Company began to grow opium in India and smuggle them into China illegally. The influx of narcotics reversed the Chinese trade surplus, drained the economy of silver, and increased the numbers of opium addicts inside the country, outcomes that worried Chinese officials.
You can't have trade if you have nothing to sell.
 

Offline OwO

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Not our fault that the US isn't selling stuff that people want to buy at prices they are willing to pay.
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Offline soldar

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Not our fault that the US isn't selling stuff that people want to buy at prices they are willing to pay.

I am reminded of a funny anecdote decades ago when America and Japan were negotiating trade deals and America was trying to force Japan into buying more American cars.

Some Japanese politician or negotiator was asked about this and his response was something along the lines of "Why should the Japanese buy cars that even Americans don't want to buy? Maybe first they can try to get Americans to buy American cars."


History repeats itself. I remember when all the things being said about China today were being said about Japan.
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Offline apis

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Looking at the ways the orange face dude managed the international relationship affairs as he is just good at bluffing, I would say China should do just few stunts, say like sinking one or two or the whole fleet of the big US military ships when crossing Taiwan strait.

That will send a crystal clear message.
That is a really bad idea, that would just give Trump an excuse to start a war. A war between the US and China would be a nuclear war, it would be very ugly. Ultimately China would loose (everyone would loose, but China would loose the most) because China can't match the US military, not even close, that's the reality.

The only way to deal with this is like the EU is doing, keep calm and ride out the storm. Trump will be gone, hopefully next year, otherwise after 2020. Lets just hope he doesn't cause a global depression before that.

 

Offline technixTopic starter

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Not our fault that the US isn't selling stuff that people want to buy at prices they are willing to pay.

I am reminded of a funny anecdote decades ago when America and Japan were negotiating trade deals and America was trying to force Japan into buying more American cars.

Some Japanese politician or negotiator was asked about this and his response was something along the lines of "Why should the Japanese buy cars that even Americans don't want to buy? Maybe first they can try to get Americans to buy American cars."


History repeats itself. I remember when all the things being said about China today were being said about Japan.
I am reminded of a Microsoft story. That was early days of Microsoft Exchange, during which Microsoft themselves was using UNIX servers for internal Email. Microsoft had diffilulty selling Exchange, often facing this rebuttal: don't sell me a product even youself is not willing to use. That prompted Microsoft to start the proven to be painstaking process of migrating all their internal mail system to Exchange.

So seriously, eat your own dogfood before selling it. It applies to companies, it applies to countries too.
 

Offline apis

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https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-us-china-trade-stalemate-20190531-story.html

US government is starting to get openly racist:
"whereas with Beijing, Washington faces a non-white culture".

I wonder why China haven't hit Boeing yet:
"Then there's Boeing, the single biggest American exporter to China. Sales to China last year accounted for more than 20% of the company’s commercial aircraft revenue."
 

Offline technixTopic starter

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US government is starting to get openly racist:
"whereas with Beijing, Washington faces a non-white culture".
For a president that built its election strategy on being openly racist, it is more likely than not that his voter base expect this type of behavior out of him.

I wonder why China haven't hit Boeing yet:
"Then there's Boeing, the single biggest American exporter to China. Sales to China last year accounted for more than 20% of the company’s commercial aircraft revenue."
Boeing is also one of the biggest US arms supplier. China need to assess the risk that sanctions on Boeing might be interpreted as an act of war. Should Chian and US be at war it is more likely said war is nuclear, dragging human civilizations as we know it down with it.
 

Offline Bud

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In regard to the baby Trump baloon - ridiculing the opponent is a common tactic to use when you run out of arguments in a dispute. Any troll's handbook will tell you that.
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Offline Simon

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In regard to the baby Trump baloon - ridiculing the opponent is a common tactic to use when you run out of arguments in a dispute. Any troll's handbook will tell you that.

Correct. He is no where as stupid as many think.

No not really. The baloon was not something the british politicians made because they don't know what to do anymore. It was made by ordinary citicens that have no say in anything and feel powerless so all they are left with is to ridicule him. They wanted to fly that baloon at a height which in london counts as airspace because it is heavily restricted and they were denied permission.
 
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Offline apis

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In regard to the baby Trump baloon - ridiculing the opponent is a common tactic to use when you run out of arguments in a dispute. Any troll's handbook will tell you that.
Correct. He is no where as stupid as many think.
Not stupid, but acting childishly and selfishly. Not necessarily the same thing. I agree ridiculing isn't a good tactic, although it appears to be one of Trumps favourite tactics.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 12:03:32 pm by apis »
 

Offline soldar

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Not stupid, but acting childishly and selfishly. Not necessarily the same thing. I agree ridiculing isn't a good tactic, although it appears to be one of Trumps favourite tactics.

Trump disliked John McCain and during his recent visit to Japan he was to visit the USS JohnMcCain. The name of the ship was covered with a tarp and the sailors were given leave so that ship's name on their head cover would not be visible.

This is the kind of things that the American Government is most concerned about. I wish there was a little more maturity in sight.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-wanted-uss-john-mccain-out-of-sight-during-trump-japan-visit-11559173470
White House Wanted USS John McCain ‘Out of Sight’ During Trump Japan Visit
U.S. military officials worked to ensure President Trump wouldn’t see the warship that bears the name of the late senator, a frequent target of the president’s ire


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/uss-john-mccain-donald-trump_n_5cef1823e4b00cfa1965c84e
White House Wanted USS John McCain ‘Out Of Sight’ During Trump’s Japan Visit: Reports
The president has continued a long-running feud with Sen. John McCain, even though the lawmaker died last August.


https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/navy-reportedly-tried-hiding-name-of-uss-john-mccain-warship-with-a-tarp-during-trumps-visit.html
The Navy Reportedly Tried Hiding USS John McCain Warship With a Tarp During Trump’s Visit
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Offline soldar

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In regard to the baby Trump baloon - ridiculing the opponent is a common tactic to use when you run out of arguments in a dispute. Any troll's handbook will tell you that.
Its not like Trump was wearing a tan suit like Obama did. Now, there is something to ridicule! Yessirree!  :palm:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/remember-when-all-we-cared-about-was-president-obamas-tan-suit_n_59a56bdae4b0446b3b866ff9
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Offline technixTopic starter

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No not really. The baloon was not something the british politicians made because they don't know what to do anymore. It was made by ordinary citicens that have no say in anything and feel powerless so all they are left with is to ridicule him. They wanted to fly that baloon at a height which in london counts as airspace because it is heavily restricted and they were denied permission.
Umm so far if CNN is to be trusted the balloon is granted airspace for the 2019 visit...?

Not stupid, but acting childishly and selfishly. Not necessarily the same thing. I agree ridiculing isn't a good tactic, although it appears to be one of Trumps favourite tactics.
Acting childish elicits the same concern as being stupid: "are there any adult supervision?"

Also news, China is investigating FedEx for "misrouting" Huawei inter-office packages to US. [Source: China Daily, South China Morning Post. Better source pending.]
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 02:53:52 pm by technix »
 

Offline Simon

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No not really. The baloon was not something the british politicians made because they don't know what to do anymore. It was made by ordinary citicens that have no say in anything and feel powerless so all they are left with is to ridicule him. They wanted to fly that baloon at a height which in london counts as airspace because it is heavily restricted and they were denied permission.
Umm so far if CNN is to be trusted the balloon is granted airspace for the 2019 visit...?


that article does not seem to be clear on anything about the baloon. The original promise was to fly this at height so that it can be seen from quite far away. The photoshoped photo in the funraising campaign was unrealistic. i think airspace in london starts at something quite low like 30m so it will either be tethered to the ground or allowed to go to about 100m tops either by the rules of airspace or common safety sense.
 

Offline apis

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I think the blimp gets most exposure by people photographing and filming it, so it won't matter if it flies really high or not (that would just make it harder to photograph).
 

Offline Simon

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The idea was that trump would get to see it. If it's a mere 20m off the ground in a place he is not going to visit it's original intention is pointless.
 

Offline technixTopic starter

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No not really. The baloon was not something the british politicians made because they don't know what to do anymore. It was made by ordinary citicens that have no say in anything and feel powerless so all they are left with is to ridicule him. They wanted to fly that baloon at a height which in london counts as airspace because it is heavily restricted and they were denied permission.
Umm so far if CNN is to be trusted the balloon is granted airspace for the 2019 visit...?


that article does not seem to be clear on anything about the baloon. The original promise was to fly this at height so that it can be seen from quite far away. The photoshoped photo in the funraising campaign was unrealistic. i think airspace in london starts at something quite low like 30m so it will either be tethered to the ground or allowed to go to about 100m tops either by the rules of airspace or common safety sense.
From a source I am not recalling, the airspace permit they got last time was no higher than 300m and tethered to a ground vehicle.

Also another news, Trump want to launch another front on trade war against Mexico, demanding Mexico to halt the stream of immigrants. (Source: NY times.)

The only worse thing than a war at hand is fighting multiple fronts at the same time. Yet he want another.
 

Offline apis

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Also news, China is investigating FedEx for "misrouting" Huawei inter-office packages to US. [Source: China Daily, South China Morning Post. Better source pending.]
Here's another article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-01/china-launches-investigation-into-fedex-xinhua
"FedEx apologized this week for delivery errors on Huawei packages following reports that parcels were returned to senders, and China’s biggest tech company said it’s reviewing its relationship with the U.S. delivery service. Two packages containing documents being shipped to the company in China from Japan were diverted to the U.S. without authorization, Reuters reported."
...
"Bloomberg reported on Friday that China has a plan to restrict exports of rare earths to the U.S. if it needs to. On another front, President Donald Trump said he plans to impose a 5% U.S. tariff on all Mexican goods over illegal immigration."
 

Offline chris_leyson

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BBC News aired a story on 29th May about rare earth minerals being China's trump card, maybe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48366074

 


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