Author Topic: I have the feeling that the whole trade war starts from a pile of nonsense.  (Read 19716 times)

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Offline magic

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So the reason we have a trade war at hand is because of the US-China trade deficit: China is importing way less things overall from US than vice versa. Meanwhile inside China I am feeling the pressure of US trade embargo, from FPGA's to computer parts. This give me the feeling that the thole US-China trade deficit is a manufactured situation by US in the first hand, hence the title "it starts from a pile of nonsense."
I don't think it's that simple. US trade deficit with China in 2018 was $420B, that's an order of magnitude more than the entire 2018 revenue of companies like Intel, nVidia or Analog. I don't know how many sales to China were blocked by US embargo, but I doubt they would suffice to plug the deficit.
We also need to mind that many of those Chinese products incorporating American components would be sold back to America, cancelling the original US to China sale and adding even more to the China to US flow. Or they could be employed to produce goods/services sold to America.

It also isn't anything specific to Trump, the deficit has been large and continuously growing for many years. Relevant US census data.

I think Americans screwed themselves up many years ago, when they drank the "knowledge economy" and "outsourcing" kool-aid. I guess it's nice and convenient when you can design things for others to manufacture and have them made by poor people working for peanuts, but inevitably those people learn how to design stuff themselves and you end up with dependency on their manufacturing and nothing to sell back to them, because all you have for sale is ideas and they are starting to have ideas of their own and don't give rat's ass about yours anymore.

This happened to simple consumer electronics which can now be bought for $1 at AliExpress, fully designed and produced in China, it is happening to smartphones, increasingly happening to ICs and will be happening to pretty much everything.

And there is another problem which is domestic low-skill workforce. Now matter how much some people wish otherwise, it exists. The idea that everybody will "learn to code" is nuts IMO. What actually happens is that millions of people are either losing jobs, or getting lower wages or simply know that their jobs will disappear anytime soon. Something has to be done with them.

Taxpayers don't own crap. Taxpayers pay a due (tax) for services rendered to them by state. Public services are rendered to public, valued by utility to public good. So if it serves public to let genius Chinese girl/boy study in USA because they will invent new processor, or reactor or whatever, and that will enhance public good of USA citizens, than yeah, they will give them seat instead of some USA born kid.
So you want me to pay for educating a foreigner, not spending that money on educating myself, getting a shitty job and not even being able to afford the processors the foreigner designed for my own good?
I think you should run against Trump, people would totally vote for that ;)

Many moons ago I lived in USA for 4 years. On H1B. Met many nice people, made friends. Had great time. Good times.
But I was not underpaid.
Google "Indian H1B sweatshops". It's not about you.

But now, even before they start considering where to go, USA is now sending the message over all available media that these dirty foreigners are not welcomed and that even if they come, they will be treated as scum.
As far as I know, H1B isn't getting slashed and I think Trump even said something recently about making the path to full citizenship easier. OTOH, if you plan on going as a student, overstaying your visa and getting a black market job, yep, that's another story.
 

Online rstofer

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Trump didnt come to power by the people but by the Electoral College, US citizens barely makes a recommendation
on whom to become president,the deplorabels are already throw under the bus without knowing it.

The genius of the Electoral College is almost always underestimated.

Back in the day (during the Constitutional Convention of 1787), the framers were worried about an imbalance in population disenfranchising smaller states.  Something had to evolve that would prevent the large population centers from running the country.

So, they gave each state 2 senators and at least 1 representative and progressively more representatives based on population.  The number of electors each state has is the sum of the senators plus representatives.

To be sure, California's 55 electors still outweighs the sum of a very large number of states but not as badly as if it were based on popular votes.  A whole lot of small states can overcome a very few large states.  If that weren't the case, only California, Texas, Florida and New York would matter.  Nobody else has to even bother to vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#/media/File:ElectoralCollege2016.svg

As you can see from the map, a whole lot of states disagreed with the liberal population centers.  Of course, Texas and Florida helped.  Don't count on Texas or Florida voting 'red' any more.

In general people don't understand the genius of the system so they want to change it.  Some states are now deciding that they will throw all their electors to the party that wins the national popular vote.  This is a huge mistake!  Suppose everybody in California voted for candidate 'A' but candidate 'B' won the popular vote.  Every vote in California would be meaningless because all of the electors would be required to vote for candidate 'B' even though nobody in California wanted them.

Yes, California has adopted this approach for the next election.  Nothing really changes because California will always vote for the Democratic candidate but at least the voters had some chance of making an impact.  Now there is no point in wasting a perfectly good postage stamp to mail in a ballot.  The electors are going to be given to the winner of the popular vote.  Even if they don't win California.  Won't it be funny when this backfires and the electors have to be given to Trump!  Biden wins the state and the electors go to Trump!  The irony...

Several other states are doing the same thing.  They don't like the Electoral College and realize they can't change the Constitution so they are doing an end-run around the requirements.  Nothing in the Constitution compels the electors to vote for any particular candidate regardless of the results in the state.  It's only by convention that they vote for the winner in the state, not by law.  But they need cover if they are going to vote against the wishes of the voters so this new scheme provides that cover.

Allowing the popular votes of other states to determine the outcome of your state just seems wrong.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 06:50:28 pm by rstofer »
 

Offline blueskull

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So you want me to pay for educating a foreigner, not spending that money on educating myself, getting a shitty job and not even being able to afford the processors the foreigner designed for my own good?

Because we make more research outcomes than a similar American student, in most of the cases.

It makes more economical sense to hire international students, at least for the funding sources. They are evaluated by the publication count and GDP created by their outcomes.

FYI, average IQ of CJK is 106 and average IQ of US/CA is 98.

From a pure social Darwinism perspective, democracy is the least effective system. Raw capitalism is the way to go.
 

Online rstofer

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As far as I know, H1B isn't getting slashed and I think Trump even said something recently about making the path to full citizenship easier. OTOH, if you plan on going as a student, overstaying your visa and getting a black market job, yep, that's another story.

Apparently, H1B renewals are getting hammered and the end result is less H1Bs overall.

https://www.wired.com/story/h-1b-visa-rejections-spike-under-trump/

The gist of it is that the Trump administration is revisiting whether some 'specialty' is really special.  Over time, one could imagine that certain skills become more available in the homegrown market.  As a result, the specialty is downgraded and the H1B visa no longer applies.

More important, 3rd party employers (body shops) are getting hit the hardest.  Direct employment less so.  Body shops got most of the visas because they could flood the system with applications and hope for the best under the lottery.  Individual companies could only apply for openings they actually had.

Where I worked, we had a Canadian fellow working on an H1B connecting up the network infrastructure for a small subsidiary.  I knew a dozen people on our site alone the had those skills, we clearly didn't need an H1B holder to plug in network cables.  He was a nice enough guy, he really had the skills but those skills just didn't seem all that unique.  Look, it was Silicon Valley!  How far would you have to look to find a domestic network guy?

It makes sense to hire the best and brightest but not at the expense of canning a domestic employee or pulling down the wage structure.  There is no 'right' to an H1B visa.

« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 07:17:50 pm by rstofer »
 

Offline blueskull

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More important, 3rd party employers (body shops) are getting hit the hardest.  Direct employment less so.  Body shops got most of the visas because they could flood the system with applications and hope for the best under the lottery.  Individual companies could only apply for openings they actually had.

Funny. In certain businesses, such as power system designing, it's almost exclusively engineered by consulting firms like Megger (they don't only make insulation meters), and they hire people from across the world.

Also, Tata remains strong in US, even it is an Indian body shop. FYI, Keysight USA handles orders by Tata consulting, as I found from their email list.

Americans should not feel privileged. If you can't compete competition from worldwide, you should be phased out.

Funny when American human right advocators say in China people should born equal. Then why US don't set their citizen equal with Chinese people?
 

Offline thm_w

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Because we make more research outcomes than a similar American student, in most of the cases.

The problem with using number of papers as a metric is it will get gamed: https://qz.com/978037/china-publishes-more-science-research-with-fabricated-peer-review-than-everyone-else-put-together/
https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/All/global/All/score

Your point may be valid, but they need to be more strict about the quality of stuff that gets released. It seems to be getting better the past few years though.
 

Offline hermit

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I had a customer tell me once that he was invited to join an investing group of mainly US military officials.  The group made a killing using insider trading on military contracts.  This situation is no different.  Insiders knew/know in advance what moves will be made and when and which stocks will be affected and how.

If  you think this is about anything other than funneling money to the 'right people', well.....
 
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Online soldar

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All my posts are made with 100% recycled electrons and bare traces of grey matter.
 
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Offline maginnovision

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So much winning!
Trump unveils $16 billion in farm aid to offset trade war losses
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-unveils-dollar16-billion-in-farm-aid-to-offset-trade-war-losses/ar-AABNwF2

Farmers have always been subsidized here.
 

Online soldar

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Farmers have always been subsidized here.

And now $16 billion more to offset trade war losses.

Shoe retailers against trade war:
Quote
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/21/nike-converse-adidas-among-shoe-retailers-warning-trump-against-trade-war-with-china/
Nike, Converse, Adidas among 170 shoe retailers warning Trump against trade war with China
In a letter, the companies warn of the “catastrophic” effects of the proposed tariffs

Nike and other shoe companies sent a letter to the White House warning of the “catastrophic” effects President Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariff would have on consumers, companies and the U.S. economy. (Mike Segar/Reuters)
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Offline Marco

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Free trade was supposed to make Russia and China nice, progressive and easy going. Instead Putin is poisoning dissidents in foreign countries and annexing Russophone regions and China is getting ready to annex half the pacific ocean. It's politically correct to isolate Russia, but it's politically incorrect to recognize China is a country the west should never have been building up economically and shouldn't continue to do so. Until failure becomes undeniable such as in Russia's case, the only international policy allowed in politically correct circles is more free trade.

Trump is not willing to sacrifice the US's autarky on the altar of free trade only to build up a future enemy in the vain hope they will become less dangerous over time. He might be a clown doing it for all the wrong reasons, but there's something to be said for cutting our losses and assuming that China is never going to be anything else but an enemy to be contained until their regime changes. It might very well be true.
 

Online soldar

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Free trade was supposed to make Russia and China nice, progressive and easy going.

Really? Where did you hear that?
All my posts are made with 100% recycled electrons and bare traces of grey matter.
 

Online Bud

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Farmers have always been subsidized here.

And now $16 billion more to offset trade war losses.

Shoe retailers against trade war:
Quote
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/21/nike-converse-adidas-among-shoe-retailers-warning-trump-against-trade-war-with-china/
Nike, Converse, Adidas among 170 shoe retailers warning Trump against trade war with China
In a letter, the companies warn of the “catastrophic” effects of the proposed tariffs

Nike and other shoe companies sent a letter to the White House warning of the “catastrophic” effects President Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariff would have on consumers, companies and the U.S. economy. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Have not heard about the second one but Nike and Adidas make crap these days. They are the last brands i look at when buying a new pair of running shoes.
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 

Offline Marco

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Offline Psi

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Trade wars are stupidly stupid and nobody is going to win anything in the short run but my prediction is that in the long run China will come out ahead of the USA.

In the long run i think the effect will hurt the US.
Their economy isn't in the most stable position. (Printing more money to stay afloat, etc)
Greek letter 'Psi' (not Pounds per Square Inch)
 

Offline blueskull

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Free trade was supposed to make Russia and China nice, progressive and easy going.

Nice, progressive and easy going to whom? To the trade partners? Yes. To the political views? No.

Not going to happen. If the west tries to shape our civilization, there will be nothing but hostility.

I think this speech has made it VERY clear, and it just happened a week ago.

 

Online EEVblog

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Trump didnt come to power by the people but by the Electoral College, US citizens barely makes a recommendation
on whom to become president,the deplorabels are already throw under the bus without knowing it.

The genius of the Electoral College is almost always underestimated.

Stick to the trade war please
 
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Offline blueskull

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Also some hypocrisy from the top. He did say Huawei ban was for national security, nothing about trade war. Nope.



Stick to the trade war please

Hope this is not OT.
 
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Online rstofer

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Farmers have always been subsidized here.

And now $16 billion more to offset trade war losses.

Which is paid for out of the $50B tariff.  Who cares?  From China's point of view, importing farm goods isn't all that important. The part that's outrageous is that we only sell China about $23B worth of produce.  How can farmers possibly lose $16B on $23B worth of business with only a 25% tariff.

With Brazil and Argentina picking up the slack in soybeans, American farmers better change crops.  They will never again be selling soybeans to China regardless of the trade situation.  Now if we could just get China to block almonds.  That would really help California!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/trump-second-round-farmer-aid-us-china-trade
 

Offline magic

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Americans should not feel privileged.
I think their egos may be inflated by all those trying to get into America, go figure ;)

If you can't compete competition from worldwide, you should be phased out.
I wonder if you will say the same if China is flooded by immigrants from, say, Africa?
Truth is, as long as there are poor countries, there will always be desperate people willing to do whatever you do, but for less. You cannot win competition on price if you want to have a higher standard of life than whatever happens to be the worst hellhole on Earth in given year.
Free trade and free migration are pipe dreams of some weirdest Western idealists, I think it's clear that none of it is going to last.
 

Offline blueskull

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I think their egos may be inflated by all those trying to get into America, go figure ;)

I can't control other people, and I understand for whatever complication they would like to come.
Still, I just called my lawyer and cancelled by I-140 green card application yesterday and my last day in US is set to end of September.

I wonder if you will say the same if China is flooded by immigrants from, say, Africa?

China tried to accept some African war asylums, and while some of them did find a life in China, many didn't.
We are not really threatened by them, as long as they don't parasite on our society.
Keep the competition up, and we are open to all of them.

If one thing Trump pleases me, that would be reducing family-based green cards. Truth is, they simply don't deserve it.
I fully understand that you want your spouse or kids to live with you, but why opening the door to siblings?
If you don't fuck your sister on a daily basis, you don't have to bring her in the country.
If she is a minor without a guardian, of course you can bring her in on a case-by-case scenario.
But why get your fully grown siblings imported to this country while they don't hold any qualification to make it worth it?
No country wants people coming in just for white card. F*ck off.

BTW, it seems Chinese people didn't make any big noise when Chinese government opened visas to Filipino maids for elite families and visa-free working permits to HK/Macau and Taiwan citizens.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 11:45:34 pm by blueskull »
 

Offline bsfeechannel

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The primary reason for US trade deficits is that the US export most in demand is US currency. When we buy goods from you, you are buying our dollars - the world's most valued reserve currency and accepted for goods around the world. Why would you waste them on US goods?

Lemme get this straight. In exchange for their goods sent to the US, China gets an I.O.U. (a.k.a. dollars).

So China is basically in the hands of the US.
 

Offline Marco

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Nice, progressive and easy going to whom?
Everyone with a coast near China would be nice to start with.
Quote
Not going to happen. If the west tries to shape our civilization, there will be nothing but hostility.
If the alternative is getting stabbed in the back down the road, maybe some upfront hostility is the better option for the west.
 

Offline Marco

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Lemme get this straight. In exchange for their goods sent to the US, China gets an I.O.U. (a.k.a. dollars).

Mercantilism allows you to quickly build up industry.

Economic interconnectedness and near monopoly power over some goods also gives you a measure of power, trying to force China to backdown over human rights or territorial disputes through sanctions would hurt the US a lot more now than it would have two decades ago.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 12:28:40 am by Marco »
 

Offline blueskull

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Everyone with a coast near China would be nice to start with.

Whom? Besides Taiwan, all territorial disputes are negotiable with Chinese government.
And FFS, China is a pretty peaceful country considering its threats from around.

When the Japanese government decided to buy the stupid disputed island from its practically controlling Japanese civilian owner, China didn't mount an attack.
When India prepares an attack near the disputed soil with China, China responded by adding reinforcing force, but not attacking first, until both side calmed down.
When the Filipino captured and murdered Chinese fishing boats in disputed or supposedly international sea, China responded by reclaiming the sea to put troops there to guard its citizen, not to murder Filipino people.
When S. Korea agrees to allow US to deploy anti-missile base to weaken China's mutual assured destruction plans should the doomsday come, China responded with only political condemnation, and Chinese people willingly boycotted Korea brands without government intervention, besides minor media control.

I bet if US got into either of the cases, it would all end up very badly.

If the alternative is getting stabbed in the back down the road, maybe some upfront hostility is the better option for the west.

If the west never pushed its frontline to the door of China, China won't stab it. Thou shalt not step on the dragon's tail.

Economic interconnectedness and near monopoly power over some goods also gives you a measure of power, trying to force China to backdown over human rights or territorial disputes through sanctions would hurt the US a lot more now than it would have two decades ago.

Human right in China is not the business of the west. Fuck off (not to you personally, to your government and its allies).

Territorial disputes are all negotiable, and practically, Chinese government always backed off, rest of Taiwan.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 02:14:24 am by blueskull »
 


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