Author Topic: I have the feeling that the whole trade war starts from a pile of nonsense.  (Read 89800 times)

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Offline soldar

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This is a long term trade war that China can not win.  We all know it, and no matter how much propaganda you throw at us, we (true americans) are with those that are for our interests first.

MAGA

Americans who think that way are whistling in the dark and they know it. They want the future to not happen. They want to go back to a past that never existed in reality. The bury their heads in the sand because they don't like the reality they see.

America became great by competing, by engaging, by innovating and doing the opposite is not going to turn the clock back.

In this case it is not America against China, which America could not win anyway, it is America against the world. No country in the world is supporting America in this trade war and most developed countries have come out against America. That should tell us something. Strongmen who promise to make the country great again are dangerous, very dangerous.

From about 1950 to about 1975 China followed a policy of complete isolation. They thought they had all they needed and had no need to interact with the outside world. The result is that millions died in the political struggles and the famines that followed. That is the way America wants to head towards.

In the mid 1980s China turned around and opened up to the world and started shifting towards capitalism. The result has been a huge success. 

The problems of America are not caused by China, they are caused by a changing world to which America does not want to adapt.

In reality Americans today have a better standard of living than they have ever had but the MAGA crowd cannot bear to see people of other countries catching up. They want the rest of the world to be way below America, and even minorities in America to know their place. It is purely envy of the other guys catching up. It is very ugly and very immoral.

America has many different economies within itself. It has highly productive areas and sectors and the best environment in any country in the world to start a business. It is not by coincidence that Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, etc. all were so successful in America. And these people and their companies are all against the trade wars. They are very successful in selling abroad.

But America also has a huge population which is under-educated and can be sold the illusion that America can turn the clock back sixty years to when the rest of the world had been destroyed and America was king of the world.  It cannot happen and it is not going to happen. America has the leading edge and it also has huge areas which are comparable to the third world and these are the people who think they can turn the clock back. The under-educated masses demand protection but the protection they demand will only bring the entire country down.

America's share of the world's economy has been decreasing for decades as Europe and other countries developed but it seems some Americans cannot live in a world where they are not top dogs. America needs to get used to the idea that the world has changed and America can no longer impose its will on others like it used to.

This trade war is totally irresponsible and it already doing great damage to the world economy but at the end of the day America will be the one to have suffered most damage.
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Offline SparkyFX

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Germany is Democratic Socialist isn't it?   The U.S. may be headed that way as well.
What is understood as socialism or socialist in Germany or Europe might not be what Americans understand as socialism - many people have tried to redefine what that means anyway. There is also a big difference in the meaning of "social" and "socialist" - here.
So maybe it might help to explain this a bit, although off topic:
The direct translation would be the liberal democratic basic order (forms the constitution) and the social market economy, there used to be some collectively (state) owned companies (Telecom, Railroad, Post), but most got privatized in the last 30 years, production and wealth is generally not collectively owned, infrastructure, regional utilities might be. Former East-Germany (ceased to exist in 1990) and various other former eastern block countries are a different story, there used to be socialism and practically everything was collectively owned, but not anymore.

Social insurances (health, unemployment, pension, long term care) are however mandatory for practically anyone (tightly regulated, some costs partially split between employee and employer) and unions do not have that bad of a reputation. That forms the social net - or grid. It is not unlimited, but covers some worries and incidents you can not control or might need anyway.
Hopefully i explained this right.

So, collecting/owning all wealth and then redistributing it is a socialist concept, and there were plenty of bad examples to choose from, either from former east germany or west germany, all systems have inherent problems and people are subject to group psychology wherever groups of people are.
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Offline Marco

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Human right in China is not the business of the west.

That's negotiable ...

What is the business of the US is really anything it makes its business. If it wants to "negotiate" changes within China it has the power to do so, just as China has the power to "negotiate" changes in territoriality with its neighbours. Gunboat diplomacy. Now of course especially obstinate countries can resist those "negotiations", in both cases, but their economy will suffer the cost. It's good to be on top and the US is top whenever it chooses to be.

It's debatable whether Trump uses that power responsibly, but I personally think that the US letting that power be eroded by having their autarkic potential be destroyed is not good for the US ... or the world. There's worse than Trump.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 12:30:20 pm by Marco »
 

Offline jancumps

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Your explanation of the German market is quite good. I don't know how that website got the data but France and Germany are marked as socialdemocrat and Belgium not. While we all share virtually the same economic and democratic look and feel.
 

Offline technixTopic starter

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That's negotiable ...
If US think it have the right to negotiate over human rights in China, China can reciprocate with negotiations over gun rights, abortion rights, overseas military bases or Medicare-for-All too. Do you think US will accept that kind of conditions? If not, human rights in China is equally nonnegotiable.
 

Offline sourcecharge

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That's negotiable ...
If US think it have the right to negotiate over human rights in China, China can reciprocate with negotiations over gun rights, abortion rights, overseas military bases or Medicare-for-All too. Do you think US will accept that kind of conditions? If not, human rights in China is equally nonnegotiable.

Do your really believe that?  China locks away MILLIONS of mulsums in the western providence into concentration camps.

They used to kill babies  because the family had more than 1 child.

Now they are using complete descrimination using a social scoring system that is required for all China, that literally takes away everything you have if you don't think, talk, act, move, go, converse, be friends with, eat, drink, poop, educate, work, and vote exactly the way the communist party wants you to..

Do you really believe that gun rights, abortion rights, national defence, or health care really is anywhere close to your countries complete lack of common sense?

Do you think the nazis could have used that same logic?  nope.

Just out of curiosity, what's your seseme score?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 01:15:13 pm by sourcecharge »
 

Offline Marco

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If US think it have the right to negotiate over human rights in China
Might makes right.
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China can reciprocate with negotiations over gun rights, abortion rights
The US is not some two bit neighbour they can bully in territorial "negotiations".

The US still is the world's bully ... and as poorly as they have handled that position, I still consider their ability to bully the world preferable to the alternative. The US really should protect its strategically important industries, such as steel and semiconductor manufacturing/design etc etc.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 01:26:35 pm by Marco »
 

Offline technixTopic starter

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China locks away MILLIONS of mulsums in the western providence into concentration camps.
US ripped thousands of families apart, ripped the kids away from their parents at the border, and placed kids into concentration camps.

They used to kill babies  because the family had more than 1 child.
US want to force women into giving birth even after an oops moment, regardless of their health, economy background or psychological impact of such pregnancies.

Now they are using complete destrimination using a social scoring system that is required for all China, that literally takes away everything you have if you don't think, talk, act, move, go, converse, eat, drink, poop, educate, work, and vote exactly the way the communist party wants you to..
And in US there are private, for-profit companies doing the same, requiring you to "think, talk, act, move, go, converse, eat, drink, poop, educate, work, and vote exactly the way" the megacorporations want you to. Speaking of, such for-profit companies just got hacked.

Do you really believe that gun rights, abortion rights, national defence, or health care really is anywhere close to your countries complete lack of common sense?
At least I don't have to worry having a bullet in my body when walking on the street, or be financially broke from catching a cold. Better be well and alive than dead and broke.

Just out of curiosity, what's your seseme score?
750+.

Speaking of, do you mind fixing up your English before hitting the Post button? English is not my first language yet I at least don't post stuff laced with spelling errors.
 

Online Bud

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i do not think anyone on the other side of the pond from China is concerned about human rights, that topic is just used as as a convenient justification for all sort of goals.
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Offline technixTopic starter

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The US still is the world's bully ... and as poorly as they have handled that position, I still consider their ability to bully the world preferable to the alternative. The US really should protect its strategically important industries, such as steel and semiconductor manufacturing/design etc etc.
What might the alternative be? China is not going to start a war, take your land or rob your people on a whim.

i do not think anyone on the other side of the pond from China is concerned about human rights, that topic is just used as as a convenient justification for all sort of goals.
For Chinese the basic form of human rights is to be alive and be healthy. Maybe China has a single governing party, you might as well consider it nonpartisan since there are so many ways to positions of power legitimately from within the system.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 01:41:53 pm by technix »
 

Offline paulca

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Normally when you have one country primarily exporting to another the buy side's currency falls and the sell sides currency rises until the cost of importing from the other country stiffles trade and it oscaliates a little and finds an equilibrium.

However China are buying billions in US dollars every year to prevent this from happening, to keep their currency weak against the dollar to encourage continued low prices for US importers.

So China is deliberately weakening it's currency by buying US bonds.   So the trade deficit is only getting deeper and deeper as it's being artificially propped up by the Chinese government.

It will be interesting when they can no longer support this and it collapses.
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Offline soldar

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Might makes right.

That makes terrorism OK. No morality, no respect for others, just grab what you can.

But if that is what America wants to do, become a rogue nation, then they can say so and stop preaching morality. Just do it and accept that others will do it to them. If you bomb the shit out of other countries just because you can then you need to accept that others have the same right to harm you as they see fit and convenient.
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Offline technixTopic starter

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That makes terrorism OK.
Are some alt-right groups terrorist groups? Was KKK a terrorist group? Was Fred Trump a participant of KKK activities and got arrested in 1927 for that? And who is his son again? Oh...
 

Offline rstofer

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US ripped thousands of families apart, ripped the kids away from their parents at the border, and placed kids into concentration camps.

You might want to do a little homework on this.  It is common practice to 'traffic' a young child as a family member in the hope of 1) selling off the child in the US and 2) getting admittance.

There is no way to know, at the border crossing, whether that child is part of the family or not.  To avoid complaints of further abuse, they separate the children.  Yes, some are legitimate children, but not all.  You have to make a decision, what do you do?  Separate and get criticized or leave with 'family' and facilitate further abuse.  Make a choice!  Make it right now!

They are beginning to do DNA analysis to prove relationships but it is costly and time consuming.  If Mexico did what it's supposed to do, it wouldn't be necessary.  What do you do with the kids while you wait for results?  Make a choice!  Make it right now!

Oh, how about we 'epedite' the testing.  You would not believe how many thousands of 'rape kits' are in the queue:

http://www.endthebacklog.org/backlog/what-rape-kit-backlog

We don't have the capacity to test the DNA of rape victims and we're supposed to divert those resources to illegal immigrants?  I don't think so...

To bring this back to 'trade war' (but not a China problem), Trump, from time to time, talks about closing the southern border.  He can close the normal crossings but the border itself is wide open land covering nearly 2000 miles.  Yes, some of it is developed but most is just dirt.  I used to live down there and I spent quite a bit of time in the desert north of the border.


« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 02:58:02 pm by rstofer »
 

Offline rstofer

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The US still is the world's bully ... and as poorly as they have handled that position, I still consider their ability to bully the world preferable to the alternative. The US really should protect its strategically important industries, such as steel and semiconductor manufacturing/design etc etc.
What might the alternative be? China is not going to start a war, take your land or rob your people on a whim.

Have you been paying attention to the South China Sea, artificially grown islands and cross-country territorial claims?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2133864/chinas-rising-challenge-us-raises-risk-south-china-sea

This is going to fester until somebody makes a miscalculation.
 

Offline Marco

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What might the alternative be? China is not going to start a war, take your land or rob your people on a whim.

Not on a whim, only for calculated strategic reasons. Land disputes are rare because we live in a new era, where the most important strategic resources are not peons or even arable land ... it's minerals, fossil fuel and potable water. Land filled with uneducated hostile peons is more trouble than it's worth, especially if overpopulated. The only way to make land truly valuable is to ethnically cleanse it first. Ocean floor though has no peons to displace, annexing it looks less hostile. Also important is the rise of exploitative "free trade". For strategically less important resources it's more convenient to just manipulate countries in letting you have economic ownership of their resources, rather than sovereign/military ownership.

The ways of war have changed.

As for China's abortion policy, I think it's neither something to celebrate ... nor to have much faith in it to keep in place. The support for abortion in communism has IMO always been as much for reasons of destroying tradition as for ideology and when push came to shove demographic wise ideology has also lost on occasion. A Ceaușescu like pivot could very well happen yet in China.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 03:28:09 pm by Marco »
 

Offline Marco

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There is no way to know, at the border crossing, whether that child is part of the family or not.  To avoid complaints of further abuse, they separate the children.  Yes, some are legitimate children, but not all.

There's one other important issue nearly never mentioned, near the end of Obama's administration all the prison facilities which could house families together were closed by court order. So until that was worked around basically the administration only had two choices, detain the parents apart or not detain them at all.
 

Offline SparkyFX

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Why is manufacturing so important? Why can't we let people do creative stuffs like making YT videos or making handcrafts?
That´s an interesting question, especially regarding the "reason" for this: the trade deficit (which equalled overall ~ -45 USD billion per month in 2017, being a whopping 0.2% 4% of the GDP of 19390 USD billion in the year 2017 - all that is, not China alone). It sounds much in absolute numbers, maybe the comparison is mathematically questionable, but if 100% of the GDP pays for a system, 0.2% 4% of that will probably not rebuild ´murica and pay for all the problems, walls or whatever. You could also re-frame the -45 USD billion trade deficit as: the imports are valuable, but the exports are not valuable enough, that could mean a few things internally need to be changed.

E.g. in 2019 global players move money in ways that might evade trade deficit calculations in the first place, by licensing costs, tax evasion, hollywood accounting and such.

Manufacturing or trading goods or the trade deficit between continents is obviously not the center of all commerce (0.2% 4%!), there are still plenty of businesses that are not affected at all, like infrastructure (can´t economically ship your infrastructure, you´ll gonna need it in the future :-), i know there are exceptions, *hello Huawei 5G Ban discussion*), education, power generation, medicine, everything that does not get across the language barrier or must be local. All of these are magically not present in the discussion with MAGA folks.

Quote
There gotta be some human touch that machines can't do, and there are people willing to pay for it.
Machinists work like that as well, either small part counts or even high volume production thanks to CNC. Wages are usually the big factor, so people better do smart stuff very often or lower count for higher pay.

Quote
Is it heavily inflated? Yes. But as long as we have money to spend, we don't care.
Well, in a mining centered economy, the flow of physical matter, the ability to mine, refine and increase the aggregate net value is what counts, it also presents a limit to the speed of trades and value that can be gained or lost. In a consumer based economy that shifts more to the impression of value, time spent, time saved, experience made, access to information. In a finance based economy... the house is on fire, leave quick, there is no SI unit for currency. I predict China to use it´s wealth and increase the social and life standards, kind of evening out wages internationally in the very long run.

But excuse my sickening hypocrisy, i write this as i unpack some stuff that arrived in the mail today, from China. Spare soldering iron: 8.17 Euro, assortment of generic 630V caps (one off-hobby projects): 11.20 Euro, postage included.

Edit: whoops, 4% instead of 0.2%, thanks Marco
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 04:28:11 pm by SparkyFX »
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Offline Marco

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You used monthly trade deficit and yearly GDP. 2018 trade deficit was $878.68 billion, around 4% of GDP.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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But excuse my sickening hypocrisy, i write this as i unpack some stuff that arrived in the mail today, from China. Spare soldering iron: 8.17 Euro, assortment of generic 630V caps (one off-hobby projects): 11.20 Euro, postage included.

You have to admit, though -  nobody imports anything into the EU without paying VAT and customs duties...   which probably add up to around the 25% that the US administration wants to impose?

Americans literally pay no duties or taxes when e.g. buying stuff from China on eBay,  in most cases.
 

Offline Marco

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Only for shipments over a certain value in most EU countries. Small shipments are duty free ... and because China's postage subsidies and the screwed up international postage system, we pay postage through what is essentially taxation. We subsidize China's trade to the detriment of our own, thank you UPU.

The UPU is broken, Trump's push to pull out is 100% the right decision. It's also the only reason why the UPU is considering reform, so other developed nations don't follow its example. International multilateral decision making screwing us, US unilateral obstinance saving all our bacon.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 04:32:07 pm by Marco »
 

Offline technixTopic starter

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You might want to do a little homework on this.  It is common practice to 'traffic' a young child as a family member in the hope of 1) selling off the child in the US and 2) getting admittance.

There is no way to know, at the border crossing, whether that child is part of the family or not.  To avoid complaints of further abuse, they separate the children.  Yes, some are legitimate children, but not all.  You have to make a decision, what do you do?  Separate and get criticized or leave with 'family' and facilitate further abuse.  Make a choice!  Make it right now!
If you want to detain, detain those "family units" together under close monitoring, for example. There is a thousand better way to handle the migrants without blatantly violating human rights and rile up the rest of world, yet you just wanted to act tough and send the world this message "come to US and we will rob you of your kids."

There's one other important issue nearly never mentioned, near the end of Obama's administration all the prison facilities which could house families together were closed by court order. So until that was worked around basically the administration only had two choices, detain the parents apart or not detain them at all.
Where did "innocent until proven guilty" go? Oh right US laws, including constitution, don't apply at the borders, according to EFF. Also that was Obama's lame duck session, when US is under almost complete Republican control, so don't blame him.

Have you been paying attention to the South China Sea, artificially grown islands and cross-country territorial claims?
Where was the disputes back in the 50s? Back in the 80s even? Why did Philippines/Indonesia/Vietnam okay with Chinese claim to all those lands back then and suddenly in the 2010s they started claiming islands? Going by this track record, is it China taking land from other countries, or is it other countries taking land from China?

Do keep in mind that while China does not wish to take anyone else's land it will not permit anyone taking land from it. If you want proof that China have no intention of taking anyone else's land, look no further than the 1979 border war between China and Vietnam - Chinese army have conquered Vietnamese soil almost up against Hanoi and should China claim it then and there the claim would not be disputed, yet Chinese armies backed entirely out of Vietnam returning all occupied land back to Vietnam.

---

Just to be on the record here, I am a social democrat - have always been since high school when I started learning the political process across the world. Look at AOC and Rashida Tlaib for what kind of soapbox I am on.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 06:08:59 pm by technix »
 

Offline windsmurf

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This is a long term trade war that China can not win.  We all know it, and no matter how much propaganda you throw at us, we (true americans) are with those that are for our interests first.

MAGA
...
The problems of America are not caused by China, they are caused by a changing world to which America does not want to adapt.

In reality Americans today have a better standard of living than they have ever had but the MAGA crowd cannot bear to see people of other countries catching up. They want the rest of the world to be way below America, and even minorities in America to know their place. It is purely envy of the other guys catching up. It is very ugly and very immoral.
...

You hit the nail on the head there.  MAGA crowd have the superiority complex... if they're not winning/dominating, then the rest of of the world must cheating, especially if they're a country of the "minority" race. 
The roots of this psychology run back to the days of slavery.  We had, on the one hand, these national ideals of freedom and equality. And, on the other hand, we had this economic reality of a slavery system that was part of the transatlantic slave trade. So, basically, this ideology developed to justify how slaves weren't equal biologically.  This national psychology still persist in the U.S.   Trump is a symptom of this persistence.





 

Offline technixTopic starter

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The roots of this psychology run back to the days of slavery.  We had, on the one hand, these national ideals of freedom and equality. And, on the other hand, we had this economic reality of a slavery system that was part of the transatlantic slave trade. So, basically, this ideology developed to justify how slaves weren't equal biologically.  This national psychology still persist in the U.S.   Trump is a symptom of this persistence.
I have the feeling that US is somehow stuck at the colonial era. Internally it seems like some form of internal colonialism is still being practised, showing up as the race problem. As of externally it shows up in the form of US being the world's bully. The MAGA crowd is acting as if they are colonists going to lose control of their colonies. I wonder why US learned nothing in the post-WW2 decolonization?

*hello Huawei 5G Ban discussion*
To some extent, I feel that China kind of deserved this for this time, as a payback of Chinese government helping Baidu driving out Google in 2010, but only if it is Qualcomm pushing this. #HotTake #UnpopularOpinion
 

Offline sourcecharge

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This is a long term trade war that China can not win.  We all know it, and no matter how much propaganda you throw at us, we (true americans) are with those that are for our interests first.

MAGA
...
The problems of America are not caused by China, they are caused by a changing world to which America does not want to adapt.

In reality Americans today have a better standard of living than they have ever had but the MAGA crowd cannot bear to see people of other countries catching up. They want the rest of the world to be way below America, and even minorities in America to know their place. It is purely envy of the other guys catching up. It is very ugly and very immoral.
...

You hit the nail on the head there.  MAGA crowd have the superiority complex... if they're not winning/dominating, then the rest of of the world must cheating, especially if they're a country of the "minority" race. 
The roots of this psychology run back to the days of slavery.  We had, on the one hand, these national ideals of freedom and equality. And, on the other hand, we had this economic reality of a slavery system that was part of the transatlantic slave trade. So, basically, this ideology developed to justify how slaves weren't equal biologically.  This national psychology still persist in the U.S.   Trump is a symptom of this persistence.

Your TDS is showing...



 


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