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Insane overengineering of a car headlight

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ejeffrey:

--- Quote from: SilverSolder on February 14, 2022, 01:49:40 pm ---
--- Quote from: Fraser on February 13, 2022, 01:52:23 pm ---
[...]  Progress is good and unstoppable, but it can get expensive !

Fraser

--- End quote ---

I think you put your finger on what annoys many people!  -  Consider the possibility that the cost of almost everything is going up faster than wages? 

Surely it is acceptable have simple (but safe and adequate) headlamps on a basic car?

--- End quote ---

I get this, but cars are one of the few areas where technology trickle down is working really well and even cheap cars are getting better and better (safer, more functional, more efficient, lower maintenance, more comfortable, and longer lasting) without getting much more expensive.  A common complaint is that "the average new car in the US now costs over $40,000" which is true but mostly explained by people buying more expensive vehicles.  For instance in the US SUVs and pickup trucks have totally taken over the market, and luxury vehicles are much more common than in the past.  But if you look at basic compact cars they are only slightly more expensive inflation adjusted than they were a few decades ago (OK, I'm only consider pre-COVID world without insane markups).  But they last much longer, have far less maintenance and fuel costs, and retain more resale value.  Modern economy cars are overall a lower cost of ownership than previous generations paid, while at the same time providing dramatically better safety and comfort.

This progress has been uneven, and some individual features have increased costs or been maintenance problems, but overall the trend has been very good at least until recently.  It's too early to see how the most recent few years of technology advancements will fare in the long term, and car manufacturers are certainly looking at ways to subvert this such as subscription features that will allow them to keep extracting money from older vehicles or render them substantially worse than when new.

It is certainly true that wages haven't kept up with the cost of living and that makes everything hurt, but mostly the cost of cars is not a significant part of the problem.  To the extent that cars are even involved it is mostly that people are buying more cars, driving them more, and buying more expensive classes of vehicles.  I'm not saying people are necessarily being irresponsible or stupid either: the increase in driving is largely caused by changing housing, work, and education needs which again are factors that suffer from wage stagnation.

ace1903:

--- Quote ---Realistically, LED headlamps are going to do min. 15,000 hours before replacement is needed, and probably 30,000 hours is achievable.

--- End quote ---
One my relative had junkyard (don't know proper word for metals recycling facility) and I once saw pile of headlamps received from dealership all almost new.
Like one hundred of them, in theory worth 100.000$ but in practice he needed to pay to be disposed in landfill. Polycarbonate is difficult to work with,  so no one was able to take aluminum and other metals out.
MTBF for single LED on desk is not the same as assembly in the car where vibrations are present, thermal and humidity cycling. There also will be some capacitor that will fail because at summer in enclosed space near the engine 85C is not unusual. I took several of them apart and most common fault was that single led from turning indicator failed rendering whole assembly unusable.
Maybe my general opinion is based on faulty series from specific manufacturer but 15,000 is hardly to be believed.     

SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: tom66 on February 14, 2022, 07:04:06 pm ---Realistically, LED headlamps are going to do min. 15,000 hours before replacement is needed, and probably 30,000 hours is achievable. 

My car while driving has averaged about 30 mph, so that would be over 450,000 miles for this car, assuming the lamps are on all the time, which itself is unlikely.  I have seen almost no cars on the road with failed LED headlamps, although one or two with failed DRL lights (usually one or two LEDs in the whole assembly, so more of a cosmetic issue.)

I guess the problem is when the cost of repair is large, but the chance of failure is low, the average person might see no change in the cost of running a car, but there is a risk of being stung with say a $1,000 bill.

It's a bit like how a car can run perfectly fine for 5 years and then suffer a catastrophic engine failure e.g. snapped timing belt.  The chance is very low, but the consequence is very high.

For those unable to budget for these types of events, I suppose that's what a warranty is for.  Personally I prefer to save my money and just budget for an event like this.  So far, even though I own a German car, this has worked out cheaper than buying the warranty.

--- End quote ---

US collision rate is 1.5 collisions per 1M vehicle miles.  Assuming a well taken care of vehicle can last 200,000 miles,  it is expected to be involved in 0.3 collisions in its life.    If the replacement cost of 2 headlamps is $2000,  the mathematical expectation for the owner of the fancy lights is $600!

Do the same math for every other over-engineered and overpriced part in your car, and you begin to see the outline of a cost explosion...    -  if you are a shareholder, then  8)  ....   if not, then  :(

SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: ejeffrey on February 14, 2022, 08:16:51 pm ---
--- Quote from: SilverSolder on February 14, 2022, 01:49:40 pm ---
--- Quote from: Fraser on February 13, 2022, 01:52:23 pm ---
[...]  Progress is good and unstoppable, but it can get expensive !

Fraser

--- End quote ---

I think you put your finger on what annoys many people!  -  Consider the possibility that the cost of almost everything is going up faster than wages? 

Surely it is acceptable have simple (but safe and adequate) headlamps on a basic car?

--- End quote ---

I get this, but cars are one of the few areas where technology trickle down is working really well and even cheap cars are getting better and better (safer, more functional, more efficient, lower maintenance, more comfortable, and longer lasting) without getting much more expensive.  A common complaint is that "the average new car in the US now costs over $40,000" which is true but mostly explained by people buying more expensive vehicles.  For instance in the US SUVs and pickup trucks have totally taken over the market, and luxury vehicles are much more common than in the past.  But if you look at basic compact cars they are only slightly more expensive inflation adjusted than they were a few decades ago (OK, I'm only consider pre-COVID world without insane markups).  But they last much longer, have far less maintenance and fuel costs, and retain more resale value.  Modern economy cars are overall a lower cost of ownership than previous generations paid, while at the same time providing dramatically better safety and comfort.

This progress has been uneven, and some individual features have increased costs or been maintenance problems, but overall the trend has been very good at least until recently.  It's too early to see how the most recent few years of technology advancements will fare in the long term, and car manufacturers are certainly looking at ways to subvert this such as subscription features that will allow them to keep extracting money from older vehicles or render them substantially worse than when new.

It is certainly true that wages haven't kept up with the cost of living and that makes everything hurt, but mostly the cost of cars is not a significant part of the problem.  To the extent that cars are even involved it is mostly that people are buying more cars, driving them more, and buying more expensive classes of vehicles.  I'm not saying people are necessarily being irresponsible or stupid either: the increase in driving is largely caused by changing housing, work, and education needs which again are factors that suffer from wage stagnation.

--- End quote ---


Buyers are part of the problem, choosing more expensive goods than they can actually afford (cars, phones, etc.) -  that is certainly not a new phenomenon, of course!

That said, the average used car in the US sold for a whopping $29,969 in December 2021, according to Edmunds. That’s up from an average of $23,185 one year prior, nearly 30%.

What would the prices be like if people refused to pay this much? -  it seems to me that most people are limited only by what the bank is willing to lend them, whether we are talking about cars or houses...
or headlights!

tom66:

--- Quote from: emece67 on February 14, 2022, 07:49:56 pm ---Even entry level Dacias do have now LED headlights, so there must be now much cheaper LED headlight assemblies.

--- End quote ---

I drove a Skoda Octavia recently (while my Golf was in for service) which had mixed LED main beam and halogen high beam.  It was odd... but I suppose not an unreasonable compromise there.

But absolutely becoming commonplace.  I agree that it should be made easier to replace the modules if they go bad.  To be honest if they are in commonplace cars like Dacia, VW group, Ford, PSA, then they will become available on the OEM market anyway as there will be demand for these parts when 1 million+ cars are made.

The thing that's interesting is the average age of a car on the UK roads has been going up [1] (and the number of cars over 13 years old is 3x higher than it was in 2000, whereas the total number of cars is only up 50%), so if anything cars are becoming more reliable despite the increase in technology, because they're certainly not economic write offs and probably things like ACC and AEB reduce the chance of a serious accident.  I can say the AEB in my Golf has warned me well before I noticed an impending pile up - it hasn't ever been the difference between an accident and not but it's certainly going to be the case for some drivers.

The high prices of used cars are more an indication of high demand for modern vehicles whilst semiconductor supplies are squeezed.  High used prices are good news for car manufacturers.  They make newer cars look more attractive, and consequentially leases are cheaper.  I always thought this idea of a car losing 25% of its value once you drive it off the forecourt to be a bit strange, if you think about it, it really doesn't make any sense.  Perhaps this blip in the market is going to be more permanent.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh02-licensed-cars (VEH0207)

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