Lion Air crash: Jakarta Boeing 737 'had prior instrument error'

[Berni]

Then again the black box is a solid metal block. Crashes on land are probably harder for it, especially if the impact is something like straight into a mountain, topped off with the fuel catching fire.

Also why are they called black boxes if they are never actually painted black?

[floobydust]

Press is saying the flight data recorder is damaged or needs parts for repair or it was found in deep water. Load of bollocks.

A few professionals speculating the airplane was going around 600MPH at impact, explaining why it basically shattered into pieces. This is using the FlightData numbers and it would have to be nose down with engine power to get that fast.

old Boeing article:
"Beginning in 1965, FDRs (commonly known as "black boxes") were required to be painted bright orange or bright yellow, making them easier to locate at a crash site. "

15GB for a 787 flight, 1,675 sensors 0.2-20Hz.

[raptor1956]

If they were going 600mph at impact something else has to be going on -- they never got that high so unless they did a powered dive at high angle it's hard to see how they could have been going that fast.  At this point I'm beginning to wonder if maybe the CVR won't be more telling.


Brian

[amyk]

The FDR is still very intact because it would've had the whole length of the plane to decelerate (probably while punching through materials softer than it) as it hit the water, so the G forces it experienced weren't that high.

On the other hand, everything in the nose is probably crushed beyond recognition.

[Lord of nothing]

600mph

a What?! 

[floobydust]

Knots are not SI and not far from MPH as a layman's comparison I guess. American aerospace people were doing the speed numbers.

OK FDR is totally ripped off the base with power supply and I/O, all they pulled is the 'crash survivable memory unit' out of the water?
That seems very strange to have all the metal nicely ripped off, leaving a more or less handheld FDR for press pictures. Those divers must use tin snips 
Lion Air possibly chose the L3 tech FDR FA2100.

[SeanB]

It ripped off the base sheet, probably part of the design to reduce the impact on the inner memory stack. That it is all nice and intact with the pinger is not a surprise, it is designed to do that.

[Nusa]

If they were going 600mph at impact something else has to be going on --

33,000 ft/min = 167 meters/second = 600 kilometers/hour = 375 miles/hour. Someone got their numbers and units mixed up.

[cdev]

Did the accident happen during a storm or unusual weather of any kind?

[Mr. Scram]

Did the accident happen during a storm or unusual weather of any kind?

It's on the first page somewhere near the top.

[sokoloff]

If they were going 600mph at impact something else has to be going on --

33,000 ft/min = 167 meters/second = 600 kilometers/hour = 375 miles/hour. Someone got their numbers and units mixed up.

I believe it was 31K fpm vertical velocity and something like 360 knots of ground speed (horizontal velocity).
Solves to something around 475 knots (about 550 mph) 40° below horizontal.

[floobydust]

Kill me for starting with Bloomberg numbers supposedly backed up by:
Expert 1: "Scott Dunham, a former National Transportation Safety Board investigator, who combined the distance the plane traveled horizontally and vertically to arrive at a speed estimate." {600mph}
Expert 2: "John Hansman, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology aeronautics and astronautics professor, estimated the plane was flying at 540mph in the final moments..."
Expert 3: Jasenka Rakas, a lecturer in engineering and aviation at the University of California at Berkeley "...the speed could have been between 586 and 633 mph."
added Bloomberg hype? "At the end, it fell 1,025ft in 1.6 seconds."

I thought the ~600mph was vector sum of vertical and horizontal velocities.

Flightradar24 data looking at timestamps, it was at 28,000ft and took minutes to drop, so -33,000ft/min seems wrong too.
2018-10-28 23:31:56Z.030 last two samples do say it fell 1,025ft in 1.6 seconds.

edit: confused flight JT610 with JT43.

[SiliconWizard]

600mph

a What?! 

Almost breaking the sound barrier!

[Nusa]

Flightradar24 data looking at timestamps, it was at 28,000ft and took minutes to drop, so -33,000ft/min seems wrong too.

You're confusing the data for the prior flight with that of the fatal flight. On it's last flight, it never got much over 6000 ft.

[floobydust]

Flightradar24 data looking at timestamps, it was at 28,000ft and took minutes to drop, so -33,000ft/min seems wrong too.

You're confusing the data for the prior flight with that of the fatal flight. On it's last flight, it never got much over 6000 ft.

Fixed, it is 1,025ft in 1.6 seconds at the end.

[Lord of nothing]

Why not put some SD Cards across the Aircraft when the Crash the have some additional infos when the get found.

[donotdespisethesnake]

Kill me for starting with Bloomberg numbers supposedly backed up by:
Expert 1: "Scott Dunham, a former National Transportation Safety Board investigator, who combined the distance the plane traveled horizontally and vertically to arrive at a speed estimate." {600mph}
Expert 2: "John Hansman, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology aeronautics and astronautics professor, estimated the plane was flying at 540mph in the final moments..."
Expert 3: Jasenka Rakas, a lecturer in engineering and aviation at the University of California at Berkeley "...the speed could have been between 586 and 633 mph."
added Bloomberg hype? "At the end, it fell 1,025ft in 1.6 seconds."

Ah yes, Bloomberg, the well known purveyor of fake news. I wouldn't trust them to tell me the right time.   

[iMo]

480mph

[Gyro]

Apparently the plane had airspeed indicator problems on its final FOUR flights! Surely enough opportunities for someone to check the pitot tubes and do some sort of investigation? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46094495

[Marco]

Well they do have ribbons on them but apparently that isn't always enough.

Why not some kind of lockout/tagout system then? Put a code in the box which requires keys from all the tags to open (or a bolt cutter for eventualities) and which needs to be transmitted to the pilot.

[tautech]

Well they do have ribbons on them but apparently that isn't always enough.

Why not some kind of lockout/tagout system then? Put a code in the box which requires keys from all the tags to open (or a bolt cutter for eventualities) and which needs to be transmitted to the pilot.

Yes it certainly wouldn't be hard to add some sort of fail-safe system so that pilots had live info on their displays on the status of pitot condoms.
Even near proximity RFID tags linked to the flight systems so the aircraft couldn't taxi under its own power would eliminate all stuff ups.

Ain't hard, only the willingness to do so is. 

[glarsson]

Even near proximity RFID tags linked to the flight systems so the aircraft couldn't taxi under its own power would eliminate all stuff ups.

Ain't hard, only the willingness to do so is. 

Not so easy. The manufacturer has to certify that this mechanism will not be a hazard, e.g. will never disable the aircraft during normal operation.

[tautech]

Even near proximity RFID tags linked to the flight systems so the aircraft couldn't taxi under its own power would eliminate all stuff ups.

Ain't hard, only the willingness to do so is. 

Not so easy. The manufacturer has to certify that this mechanism will not be a hazard, e.g. will never disable the aircraft during normal operation.

Yer what ? ? ?
No different to any other sensor or system code in the modern aircraft !

[glarsson]

They are also not easy, but a device that can disable the aircraft (even designed to do it) is something else. Can you guarantee that these RFID sensors can't fail and disable the aircraft during takeoff, cruise or landing?
What is worse; a failed pitot tube or one sensor that disables the aircraft?

[sokoloff]

Aircraft manufacturers have probably figured pitot safety out better than random EE enthusiasts brainstorming here.
There's an airspeed alive callout and an 80-knot cross-check to catch gross pitot errors. It's extremely unlikely that this airplane took off with pitot covers installed (if that's the case, RFID tagged covers are a non-solution).

They have the FDR; they can hear roughly where the CVR is and are likely to recover it. That will tell a lot more than all the internet speculation combined.