Author Topic: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...  (Read 2912 times)

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Offline Rick LawTopic starter

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May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« on: May 13, 2020, 02:32:11 am »
Wall Street Journal article (May 11, 2020):

Trump and Chip Makers Including Intel Seek Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency

Pentagon says coronavirus pandemic underscores vulnerability from reliance on Asian factories


The Trump administration and semiconductor companies are looking to jump-start development of new chip factories in the U.S. as concern grows about reliance on Asia as a source of critical technology.

A new crop of cutting-edge chip factories in the U.S. would reshape the industry and mark a U-turn after decades of expansion into Asia by many American companies....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-chip-makers-including-intel-seek-semiconductor-self-sufficiency-11589103002
 

Offline bob91343

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2020, 05:56:34 am »
The way politicians think is dangerous.  They have no clue.

There are few foundries in the US for a number of reasons.  In a free market the companies are in fierce competition and shaving even a tiny cost from an item can make the difference between success and failure.

Since Asian companies pay low wages, they can sell at low prices.  To do the same thing in the US would require illegal wage rates.  So what are they suggesting - artificially subsidize US factories?  That wouldn't be sustainable.  These idiots in Washington are money and power hungry and think that passing a law will change things.

It's not gonna happen.  For years I have asked the question, what are we going to do when we run out of third world countries to make cheap stuff?  Once the Chinese stabilize and pay decent wages they will lose their competitive advantage.  Then perhaps it will be the Africans' turn to crank out low cost products.  After that, what then?  We may be forced to pay fair prices, something we do not now do.
 

Offline maginnovision

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2020, 06:03:41 am »
If cogs goes up so does the price. People will get used to it. I don't think that part is a huge issue. Just result in higher tariffs on imported goods to even things out despite labor costs in different markets. Is it really a big deal if people can't buy as many smart watches, smart speakers, smart phones etc...? Probably help some people get their priorities in order.

I used to work in manufacturing and really liked it. I'd love to see more of it here again.
 

Offline Nauris

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2020, 04:16:13 pm »
There are few foundries in the US for a number of reasons.  In a free market the companies are in fierce competition and shaving even a tiny cost from an item can make the difference between success and failure.

Since Asian companies pay low wages, they can sell at low prices.  To do the same thing in the US would require illegal wage rates.  So what are they suggesting - artificially subsidize US factories?  That wouldn't be sustainable.  These idiots in Washington are money and power hungry and think that passing a law will change things.
Chip fabs are mostly in the hi-tech hi-wage asian countries so wages are really not the deciding factor, it has more to do with existing infrastructure, traditions and technical excellence in that area.
 

Offline Rick LawTopic starter

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2020, 08:18:44 pm »
The way politicians think is dangerous.  They have no clue.

There are few foundries in the US for a number of reasons.  In a free market the companies are in fierce competition and shaving even a tiny cost from an item can make the difference between success and failure.

Since Asian companies pay low wages, they can sell at low prices.  To do the same thing in the US would require illegal wage rates.  So what are they suggesting - artificially subsidize US factories?  That wouldn't be sustainable.  These idiots in Washington are money and power hungry and think that passing a law will change things.

It's not gonna happen.  For years I have asked the question, what are we going to do when we run out of third world countries to make cheap stuff?  Once the Chinese stabilize and pay decent wages they will lose their competitive advantage.  Then perhaps it will be the Africans' turn to crank out low cost products.  After that, what then?  We may be forced to pay fair prices, something we do not now do.

We are both in support of competition, but we have a perspective on competition.

In my opinion, technology is what would bring better products.  Without technology improvement, all we have is how to cut cost - that will likely lead us to junk: stuff made at the lowest possible cost.

I like to see nations compete on technology rather than price.  The more nations participate in technology competition, the more technology advances.  Better technology itself will bring cost down to some degree, and have other benefits.  Most important benefit being: The more expansive (not expensive) the technology industry, the more opportunities for people, and the more bright-minds will join in to do it.

In short, more techno-competition gives us more money/influence for the CTO or the CIO, and less for the COO and CFO...  More bright-minds going into technology instead of Wall Street and Banks.

EDIT: Original reply forgot the inserted quote.  Edit to re-insert the quote
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 08:24:37 pm by Rick Law »
 

Offline engrguy42

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2020, 08:40:42 pm »
I think another challenge in the US is most of the college age kids have little to no interest in engineering. In countries like India it's just the opposite.

IMO, it's kind of embarrassing to see how universities (and society as a whole) have de-emphasized engineering compared to other countries. Put up a job opening for an engineer and chances are you'll get a ton of guys from India, China, etc. Or if you have an engineering/tech youtube channel, notice the names of folks who subscribe.

In the past 30-40 years we've progressively screwed ourselves by falling into this insatiable desire for cheap stuff from overseas, thereby destroying much of our industries. And we'll probably never get them back.   
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 08:43:14 pm by engrguy42 »
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Online nctnico

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2020, 08:47:38 pm »
The way politicians think is dangerous.  They have no clue.

There are few foundries in the US for a number of reasons.  In a free market the companies are in fierce competition and shaving even a tiny cost from an item can make the difference between success and failure.

Since Asian companies pay low wages, they can sell at low prices.  To do the same thing in the US would require illegal wage rates.  So what are they suggesting - artificially subsidize US factories?  That wouldn't be sustainable.  These idiots in Washington are money and power hungry and think that passing a law will change things.

It's not gonna happen.  For years I have asked the question, what are we going to do when we run out of third world countries to make cheap stuff?  Once the Chinese stabilize and pay decent wages they will lose their competitive advantage.  Then perhaps it will be the Africans' turn to crank out low cost products.  After that, what then?  We may be forced to pay fair prices, something we do not now do.
I agree; bringing back manufacturing is not the answer. Good riddance because manufacturing is where least of the value is created. Besides China there are another billion people in Asia making little to no money. And then there are Africa and South America. It will take another century before 'we' run out of cheap labour. And once that happens everything can be made by robots anyway.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 08:50:33 pm by nctnico »
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Offline KL27x

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2020, 08:49:08 pm »
Semiconductor manufacturing is very few EE jobs and a lot of crappy manual labor. If it's a matter of national security, you can subsidize it with boatloads of money. Who pays those blank checks in the end?
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 08:56:11 pm by KL27x »
 

Offline cdev

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2020, 09:13:22 pm »
The US officially put out decades ago that it wants to globalize engineering and a bunch of other professions like nursing, teaching, medicine, law, IT, etc. Leading to very low wages and lots of outsourcing/offshoring. Thats their official plan. In exchange we will get more leverage over other countries in very high margin areas like pharmaceuticals. Regulations limiting prices will be swept away. A glittering El Dorado of cashless purchasing and micropayments. Nobody will need credit cars as everything will work on biometrics or chip implants.

I think another challenge in the US is most of the college age kids have little to no interest in engineering. In countries like India it's just the opposite.

IMO, it's kind of embarrassing to see how universities (and society as a whole) have de-emphasized engineering compared to other countries. Put up a job opening for an engineer and chances are you'll get a ton of guys from India, China, etc. Or if you have an engineering/tech youtube channel, notice the names of folks who subscribe.

In the past 30-40 years we've progressively screwed ourselves by falling into this insatiable desire for cheap stuff from overseas, thereby destroying much of our industries. And we'll probably never get them back.   

They dont want low margin industries. If a business doesnt make some ridiculously high profit they would rather put that money into something with a higher and higher yield. Thats why they want these services deals to get leverage over other countries so badly.

They see trading away those jobs as a win win proposition because they get higher yields overseas. So bluntly, they want our young people to not go to college. Not go into debt for degrees they will never be able to use.

See D. Rodrik "The inescapable trilemma of the global economy" and others.  (Yes, I do think this is realy horrible because we never got to vote on any of it. They just did it. And of course now you cannot compensate people for losing jobs they never had. And they are being very dishonest, pretending nothing ever changed. )  Its a bit like the feudal system, and we are like a captive market.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 09:23:43 pm by cdev »
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Offline cdev

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2020, 09:39:48 pm »
According to our current ideology it makes no sense for us to manufacture most mundane things here because we do other things better, we are supposed to concentrate on the things we do best, law, very high tech, like defense industry, aerospace, microprocessors, very high value manufacturing and of course, entertainment, infotainment, things like youtube, Twitter, facebook and so on.  These are the brands of the USA. Even if teh manufacturing is done by importaed workforces, the companies design them and get to profit on the increased value simply by putting their valued trademark on something. Like Marcel Duchamp's "readymades" in art. as they would have us see it, their act of saying it is art makes it art.


I think another challenge in the US is most of the college age kids have little to no interest in engineering. In countries like India it's just the opposite.

IMO, it's kind of embarrassing to see how universities (and society as a whole) have de-emphasized engineering compared to other countries. Put up a job opening for an engineer and chances are you'll get a ton of guys from India, China, etc. Or if you have an engineering/tech youtube channel, notice the names of folks who subscribe.

In the past 30-40 years we've progressively screwed ourselves by falling into this insatiable desire for cheap stuff from overseas, thereby destroying much of our industries. And we'll probably never get them back.   

There are a lot of people here (In the US) who are very interested in technology, but unless they are very good, (unlike me) it just remains a hobby for many of us. A way to get our sanity back.
Back in the day people who were interested and knew their stuff could get a decent job doing all sorts of jobs, but now the focus is on formal credentials. Which take a long time to get. And those jobs despite their need for high level degrees, may not even offer much in the way of creative opportunity as its mostly about being a costly screen to filter out the vast majority of applicants.

With business having a huge potential labor pool of 7 billion people to draw on.

As this becomes the norm, people really will have to have carved out some area where they are extremely good to get not just a good job, any job. Small businesses wil be replaced in large numbers by global chains who get to bring along their workforces. The middle class that most of us grew up with or in around the world may in retrospect be seen as mostly a phenomenon of the late 20th century. Thats how the very wealthy+powerful seem to see it/want it.  And they are in charge more now than they have been since the 1920s or even earlier.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 09:44:53 pm by cdev »
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Offline engrguy42

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2020, 09:41:10 pm »
Thanks cdev. Yeah, I posted here the other day in a different thread that the average hourly wage for a factory worker in China is something like $1.16 US, while in the US it's closer to $23. That's some serious profit margin.

I dunno, makes no sense to me. When you see all those companies that have died in the process it's kind of a shame. It's interesting, if you look at the biggest employers by state in each of the US states, I think the top 3 are invariably Walmart, universities, and medical in every state.

Geez.



 
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- I'm always amazed at how many people "already knew that" after you explain it to them in detail...
 

Offline KL27x

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2020, 09:46:09 pm »
If you look at ANY first world country, over 90% of the jobs are in the service industry.
 

Offline engrguy42

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2020, 09:48:29 pm »
BTW, I think one of the big side effects from this pandemic is going to be people coming to the realization that all of the stuff they think is so important is suddenly overpriced and useless. I'm talking spending all day with their heads buried in their $1,000 smartphones for entertainment (FB, youtube, TikTok, etc.). They're gonna be faced with a grim reality that, umm, maybe it's not good that all those jobs are overseas because our economy is shit and we sure could use them. And all that infotainment and entertainment is a lot less important than eating. It's gonna be a painful lesson about getting back to basics. 
- The best engineers know enough to realize they don't know nuthin'...
- Those who agree with you can do no wrong. Those who disagree can do no right.
- I'm always amazed at how many people "already knew that" after you explain it to them in detail...
 

Offline KL27x

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2020, 09:56:17 pm »
And people who are laid off from minimum wage jobs in my area? They are making $26.00 an hour to stay home and watch Netflix, between unemployment and the extra relief funds. It's a difficult time trying to hire new employees for low paying jobs.
 

Offline cdev

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2020, 09:57:55 pm »
I dunno, makes no sense to me. When you see all those companies that have died in the process it's kind of a shame. It's interesting, if you look at the biggest employers by state in each of the US states, I think the top 3 are invariably Walmart, universities, and medical in every state.

Geez.

Within the next few years the universities and medical as well as every other area that receives tax money except where services are 'a service supplied in the exercise of governmental authority' (which) means any service which is supplied neither on a commercial basis, nor in competition with one or more service suppliers.

will go through a transition to global tendered bids, unless it can somehow be turned into national security, war, space, etc Wel, maybe not space..

 Something like what happened with the Federal government and contrsctors will happen with all of the levels of government and quasi government even at the local level.  So what that means in practice is that a lot of services will get turned into web applications. Schools may end up getting globalized and put online, which will make it very hard for many kids to get a decent education. Let alone a meal like many do now. malnourishment is already a serious problem in the US with one in five school age kids not getting enough to eat.
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 

Offline cdev

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2020, 10:06:21 pm »
As people here know better than anybody, all of our countries have a lot of creative people and ideas. So we have a right to hope that this madness can and will change.  Its not the poor overseas workers faults either. Its the system that cares only about money and nothing else that is broken.

Wall Street Journal article (May 11, 2020):

Trump and Chip Makers Including Intel Seek Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency

Pentagon says coronavirus pandemic underscores vulnerability from reliance on Asian factories


The Trump administration and semiconductor companies are looking to jump-start development of new chip factories in the U.S. as concern grows about reliance on Asia as a source of critical technology.

A new crop of cutting-edge chip factories in the U.S. would reshape the industry and mark a U-turn after decades of expansion into Asia by many American companies....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-chip-makers-including-intel-seek-semiconductor-self-sufficiency-11589103002
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 

Offline schmitt trigger

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2020, 10:12:44 pm »


 When you see all those companies that have died in the process it's kind of a shame. It's interesting, if you look at the biggest employers by state in each of the US states, I think the top 3 are invariably Walmart, universities, and medical in every state.

Geez.

And in a near future..... Amazon.
 
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Offline cdev

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2020, 10:18:16 pm »
I hate to say this but a smart person realizes that nothing is ever free. "beware of greeks bearing gifts" never was that as true as it is today.

The government in fact is not allowed to help people like it did back in the 80s, except during an emergency when they literally are prohibited to work.

The same thing with health care. What little help they do still give poor people is supposed to be gradually phased out. All around the world. (unless it meets the narrow two line test - the italicized text in another post on this thread) And it is being.

 As otherwise it would be cutting into the incomes of insurance companies and banks. And now I really have to stop.


And people who are laid off from minimum wage jobs in my area? They are making $26.00 an hour to stay home and watch Netflix, between unemployment and the extra relief funds. It's a difficult time trying to hire new employees for low paying jobs.
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 

Offline cdev

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2020, 10:36:00 pm »
If you look at ANY first world country, over 90% of the jobs are in the service industry.

Right, and so the loss of those jobs is really going to hurt. It will be like NAFTA for the rest of the jobs. And the rules will change all around the world, not just here in the US.

We've managed to put it off for >20 yrs and our ability to delay it is basically up. Time to cough up the jobs we promised them.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 10:40:19 pm by cdev »
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Offline maginnovision

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2020, 10:48:58 pm »
And people who are laid off from minimum wage jobs in my area? They are making $26.00 an hour to stay home and watch Netflix, between unemployment and the extra relief funds. It's a difficult time trying to hire new employees for low paying jobs.

In LA a min wage person is likely to be making closer to 22.50/hr unemployed(over 200% normal). Even with extra unemployment money my household income is closer to 30-40% and work won't be resuming for months still. There are reports of people not going back to work because they'll get so much less money, but no idea how widespread that is.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2020, 11:02:05 pm »
If cogs goes up so does the price. People will get used to it. I don't think that part is a huge issue. Just result in higher tariffs on imported goods to even things out despite labor costs in different markets. Is it really a big deal if people can't buy as many smart watches, smart speakers, smart phones etc...? Probably help some people get their priorities in order.

I used to work in manufacturing and really liked it. I'd love to see more of it here again.
Tariffs just disadvantage a country compared to the rest of the world. The rest of the world has the economy of scale. The US market is big, but not big enough to even that out. The tariffs are ultimately paid by American citizens and not the overseas companies. You just end up tying your own shoelaces together and trying to run with the rest of the crowd.
 

Offline maginnovision

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2020, 11:07:50 pm »
The tariffs wouldn't be about other countries though they would be about raising the consumer costs to equal or higher than of the american produced goods. It would be the way to not only move manufacturing to the US but make sure that US citizens are also purchasing it.

That's the only way I see it working. Manufacture here and make sure people buy it by making it so that there is no advantage(other than normal stuff, features, design, preference, whatever...) to buying goods from foreign sources as opposed to domestic.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 11:10:59 pm by maginnovision »
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2020, 11:16:55 pm »
The tariffs wouldn't be about other countries though they would be about raising the consumer costs to equal or higher than of the american produced goods. It would be the way to not only move manufacturing to the US but make sure that US citizens are also purchasing it.
You're essentially subsidizing US factories with a tax on consumer goods. You might call it redistribution of wealth. Come to think of it, I never thought I'd see US citizens so openly arguing for what are essentially communist or socialist ideas. The inevitable result is a more restricted economy, which cannot compete with less restricted economies overseas. If something as simple as a computer costs twice as much, US companies cannot hope compete with the rest of the world. There's no chance of a level playing field.
 

Offline maginnovision

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2020, 11:34:10 pm »
The tariffs wouldn't be about other countries though they would be about raising the consumer costs to equal or higher than of the american produced goods. It would be the way to not only move manufacturing to the US but make sure that US citizens are also purchasing it.
You're essentially subsidizing US factories with a tax on consumer goods. You might call it redistribution of wealth. Come to think of it, I never thought I'd see US citizens so openly arguing for what are essentially communist or socialist ideas. The inevitable result is a more restricted economy, which cannot compete with less restricted economies overseas. If something as simple as a computer costs twice as much, US companies cannot hope compete with the rest of the world. There's no chance of a level playing field.

Every moderately sized business and larger is already subsidized by tax breaks, rebates, and refunds both at the federal and state/local levels. The entire EV market is subsidized federally for example, with some states offering even more. You're pretending these things don't already happen.

I'm not arguing for any of this. I think it'd be great if ALL our manufacturing could come back home but I personally wouldn't want there to be any incentives other than the companies having the guarantee that they wouldn't have their goods locked down where they couldn't be used.

Using tariffs wouldn't be redistributing wealth though, it'd be giving people perspective on the cost of goods based on our standards of living. They'd be free to spend their money on whichever goods they wanted. The tariffs would only be about levelling the market regardless of where the goods come from. A microwave from India would be roughly the same cost as one from Japan or America. If the costs were the same for the domestic and foreign version some people would prefer the domestic version, keeping that money from leaving the country which is a good thing for the domestic markets.

The problem comes when you go extreme like North Korea and you can't actually manage to do everything domestically and costs for foreign goods you require, even when some production is domestic, are so high that your currency is all but useless. You either pay and the domestic costs skyrocket or you only produce what you're able to domestically.

Realistically things probably won't change much but this covid crap where some countries are holding goods or goods aren't able to move freely could push some companies to move things around, a sort of rebalancing of assets globally.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming...
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2020, 11:51:28 pm »
Every moderately sized business and larger is already subsidized by tax breaks, rebates, and refunds both at the federal and state/local levels. The entire EV market is subsidized federally for example, with some states offering even more. You're pretending these things don't already happen.

I'm not arguing for any of this. I think it'd be great if ALL our manufacturing could come back home but I personally wouldn't want there to be any incentives other than the companies having the guarantee that they wouldn't have their goods locked down where they couldn't be used.

Using tariffs wouldn't be redistributing wealth though, it'd be giving people perspective on the cost of goods based on our standards of living. They'd be free to spend their money on whichever goods they wanted. The tariffs would only be about levelling the market regardless of where the goods come from. A microwave from India would be roughly the same cost as one from Japan or America. If the costs were the same for the domestic and foreign version some people would prefer the domestic version, keeping that money from leaving the country which is a good thing for the domestic markets.

The problem comes when you go extreme like North Korea and you can't actually manage to do everything domestically and costs for foreign goods you require, even when some production is domestic, are so high that your currency is all but useless. You either pay and the domestic costs skyrocket or you only produce what you're able to domestically.

Realistically things probably won't change much but this covid crap where some countries are holding goods or goods aren't able to move freely could push some companies to move things around, a sort of rebalancing of assets globally.
It is redistribution of wealth. A cheap microwave is tariffed to be more expensive. That's money taken directly out of the pocket of the consumer and put into the pocket of the domestic manufacturer who would otherwise not exist. Reverse distribution, perhaps? Keeping domestic money in the domestic market also means keeping foreign money out. A US company with twice the operating costs cannot compete with companies elsewhere. Many American companies make their money overseas and that will come to an end. Trade worth billions will be lost. Tariffs aren't going to change that as those only protect the internal market.
 


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