MH370 new seach restarting -- with a twist

[Rick Law]

Judging form the many MH370 posts here, I know many of you here are interested:  The search for MH370 is restarting.  A new contract with Ocean Infinity is agreed.  $70 million usd searching the 15,000-square-kilometer (5,800-square-mile) site proposed and agreed.

The twist?  Ocean Infinity appears very confident this time as they agree to -- "No find, no fee!"

Per BBC:
The Malaysian cabinet has approved a fresh search for the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, more than a decade after the aircraft vanished.
The search will cover a 15,000 sq km area in the southern Indian Ocean, under a "no find, no fee" agreement with the exploration firm Ocean Infinity.
The company will receive $70m (£56m) if the wreckage is found, transport minister Loke Siew Fook announced.
... ...
In December, Malaysia's government agreed in principle to resume the search. However, the final negotiations were not completed until March.
Malaysia's final approval on Wednesday will now allow the search to begin.
Loke said in a statement: "The government is committed to continuing the search operation and providing closure for the families of the MH370 passengers."
... ...
Original BBC article (article date 3/19/2025):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2erydmm3lzo

[Halcyon]

The twist?  Ocean Infinity appears very confident this time as they agree to -- "No find, no fee!"

I don't think this is the first "no find, no fee" search that has occurred. I'm certain there was at least one other.

[bdunham7]

They think they know where it is within a 43 mile radius (or equivalent other shape)?

[brucehoult]

They think they know where it is within a 43 mile radius (or equivalent other shape)?

The diameter of that (if circular) is less than 10 minutes flying time!

[Rick Law]

Ocean Infinity participated in prior search (around 2018) before but for fee.  With time, improvement likely occurred.  Given their fleet presumably improved under water surveying equipment, much better insight now to the then-collected data, along with with some new data (such as the ham-radio radio signal analysis), they can do better this time around.

Their earlier (agreement prep) survey found January to April is the best time for the search.  It will cost them tens of million if they fail.  April is starting soon, but they jumped right in.  So in their judgement the odds must be good!  I think it is too -- my conclusion is of course merely a product of their confidence and their known under-seas abilities.

My bet, MH370 found by end of 3Q25 > 50%; found by end of contract > 90%.  (pre-agreement discussion was 18 month, not sure about final agreement exact duration).

I hope the families of MH370 lost crew and passengers will find closure and peace...

[vidarr]

What happens if some random diver(s) finds it first? They get nothing?

[tom66]

What happens if some random diver(s) finds it first? They get nothing?

It's most likely 5,000 ft+ underwater.  You are not finding it by mistake, you have to have sonar arrays and skilled operators.

Incidentally, that is why if it was controlled flight by the pilot (i.e. pilot suicide), it seems likely to be the reason that location was picked, since the chance of recovering anything is extremely difficult.  The Inmarsat 'ring' was a previously unused technique to locate a missing aircraft, and it was only possible because the satcom system remained powered up.  Without that, the location of MH370 would be a total mystery.  But I wonder what they hope to discover... I expect the pilot would have been smart enough to disconnect power to the black boxes, if he was trying to cover his tracks.

[vidarr]

Wow, I had no idea it was so deep. You think this was pilot suicide? I thought it was sabotage. Malaysia had been disobeying the USA, and I think UK also, really pissing them off. It was something big and it was more than once. Then, this plane happened and then another plane, and something else. Like all in a row. Then, Malaysia got back in line.

I don't remember the details, but it is not a difficult search. This was the theory many of the political and news experts held.

edit: That image was for my other post. Oops.

[tom66]

Well, the first plane (MH17) was shot down by Russian separatists using Russian military equipment during the war in Donbas.  That was an act of war against innocent civilians, and one Russia will probably never acknowledge.

The second plane (MH370) we do not know really, maybe it was pilot suicide, it seems the most likely circumstance given the communications were shut down and no distress signal was heard.  But if the black boxes are non-functional or never found, it becomes very difficult to say with any certainty.  In my mind, I cannot see it being anything other than suicide by pilot, because all of the other options (mechanical/electrical malfunction, hypoxia, hijacking, fire) appear to have been crossed off the list.  We know the plane was flying for 6-7 hours after it disappeared from primary radar, so if there was a problem, why did no one say anything?

[vidarr]

MH370 happened first:

MH370 - 8 March 2014.
MH17 - 17 July 2014.

For a while, I thought Russia was telling the truth about the MH17 being shot down by the Ukrainians. Then, they just stopped reporting on it at all. That is when I knew they were definitely lying. They lie by omission all the time; it is their number one tactic for propaganda purposes. Whenever they don't talk about something major that happened and they were possibly in the mix and they stay silent in the news, you can be sure they did it (unlike the USA news, that blatantly lies with no shame). In any case, the guys that shot down the MH17 definitely did not do it on purpose. They thought it was a Ukrainian military plane. They are complete idiots, but not evil.

On another note:
So, it was the satellite phone system Malaysia Airlines had a subscription for that gives the closest estimate of where the MH370 plane went down? It is unbelievable that in the 21st century, planes can just "disappear". Maybe the black boxes, coms and transponders, etc should not be able to be disengaged, or turned off (in flight)?

[tom66]

Thanks for the correction @vidarr.

I do not believe MH17 was deliberately shot down, however, it is clear that the separatists were incompetent and operating equipment that they should not have been operating, and they should be on trial.  Of course, that will never happen, unless Russian government falls.

At this point there is zero doubt that the plane crashed, the parts are one thing, but it seems some people hoped it landed on some tropical island somewhere and "Lost" is playing out... it's just not possible.  You need a min. 2km long runway to land a plane like that, and any possible locations for the plane have been ruled out.  The wreckage is twisted and bent, suggesting a severe impact with the ocean.

[NE666]

Has M. Night Shyamalan been notified?

[vidarr]

...but it seems some people hoped it landed on some tropical island somewhere and "Lost" is playing out...

Oh boy. I feel for the families and friends, that has got to be really rough.

Remember this dude:

"Cor Pan and Neeltje Tol were leaving Amsterdam for vacation when C0r — who goes by the last name “Pan” on Facebook, but lists his surname as “Schilder” elsewhere — stopped to snap a picture of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and post it to Facebook. His message, in hindsight, was eerie: “Should it disappear, this is what it looks like.”" --Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2014/07/17/mh17-passenger-on-facebook-minutes-before-flight-should-it-disappear-this-is-what-it-looks-like/

That was nuts. He was saying that as a kind of joke about MH370. Not a very good joke. Some of the people had oxygen masks on, so they were alive as the plane was tearing apart around them, after being hit with the missile. The terror of experiencing that is unimaginable to me.

[Analog Kid]

Some of the people had oxygen masks on, so they were alive as the plane was tearing apart around them, after being hit with the missile.

How do we know any of that?
"Hit by a missile" is pure speculation, so far as I know, right?
How could anyone possibly know that "some of the people had oxygen masks on"?
Where are you getting this info?

[vidarr]

How could anyone possibly know that "some of the people had oxygen masks on"?

Here are a couple stories. Do a search and you can find many more.

Reconstruction reveals how MH17 passengers had time to put their oxygen masks on as jetliner plunged to the ground after being hit by Russian missile:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8517289/Reconstruction-reveals-MH17-passengers-time-oxygen-masks-jetliner-plunged.html

MH17 crash: Dutch minister says passenger 'wore oxygen mask':
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29548942

"Hit by a missile" is pure speculation, so far as I know, right?

It is not speculation. It is fact. No one on any side disputes the evidence that the plane was downed by a BUK missile (from BUK Missile System).

Where are you getting this info?

I read lots and lots of news and analyze it as part of my job. I was on the MH17 before it even broke news. I have lots of sources that post stuff on Telegram and other messaging apps Live. I'm not "into" MH17 or anything. There are experts on it and I am nowhere near an expert on this. I know the basic facts though. Hope this answers your questions.

[Analog Kid]

Wait a sec: you're writing about MH17, while the thread is about MH370.
I guess my bad then, but why the tangent into another air crash here?

[brucehoult]

It is not speculation. It is fact. No one on any side disputes the evidence that the plane was downed by a BUK missile (from BUK Missile System).

And operated not by the largely imaginary Ukrainian separatists (there were never more than 5% of Donbas residents who wanted that) but by Russian army officers who were on vacation. Because of course everyone signs-out a BUK to take with them on vacation. Can't be too careful.

[EEVblog]

Wow, I had no idea it was so deep. You think this was pilot suicide?

Absolutely no doubt by anyone.
The very deliberate pattern to avoid various military and civilian radars confirms it's no accident.

[EEVblog]

Mentor has a new video on it, he's always good, but I haven't watched it yet.

[TimFox]

Wait a sec: you're writing about MH17, while the thread is about MH370.
I guess my bad then, but why the tangent into another air crash here?

Two Malaysian airliners down within a short period of time:  obviously of interest.
370 on March 8 and 17 on July 17.
In hindsight, apparently unrelated.

[Haenk]

How do we know any of that?
"Hit by a missile" is pure speculation, so far as I know, right?
How could anyone possibly know that "some of the people had oxygen masks on"?
Where are you getting this info?

The russian military unit has long been identified; they were even able to track the movement to a large degree, because russion soldiers did not stop posting pictures while on the move.
There are pictures available showing shrapnel holes in aircraft parts, which are typical for this kind of air defense rockets.

I'm pretty sure this takedown was not intended, nor officially ordered, there has been support from mid/higher level mititary ranks though.

[tom66]

Worth a watch for anyone interested in MH17 incident:


The level of detail and investigation leaves no doubt, it was shot down by a Russian-owned Buk system.

Bellingcat also tracked it down:
https://www.bellingcat.com/app/uploads/2015/10/MH17-The-Open-Source-Evidence-EN.pdf