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Parcel tracking as a measure of system collapse
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TerraHertz:
Does anyone else have a tracked parcel in transit in the USA?
How is it going atm?

Till the last couple of days everything I had in the US postal system was still moving. A couple of things arrived at my reshipper in LA OK, even though one was from San Francisco after the general lockdown was ordered in that city.
But one parcel that was still in motion, going from the East Coast to LA by road, seems to have stalled ... somewhere. Tracking doesn't even say where, and that's unusual. The last entry on the status page went from "In transit, arriving on time" to "in transit, arriving late", stayed that way for days, and yesterday changed to "In transit to the Next Facility." But it's now two days overdue from the original delivery estimate, and showing no sign of being anywhere near destination.
It's with USPS. Probably a bit too early to assume the process has actually dropped dead from COVID-related disruptions. We'll see.

Yesterday and today I bought a couple more small things in the USA, to go to the reshipper in LA. Partly to see how they move. Neither one has actually been posted yet. Maybe even that won't happen?

For anyone else who has read "The Collapse of Complex Societies" by Tainter, you'll understand my interest. Widespread infrastructure collapse - go a little way down that path and there's no returning. Instead you get to go all the way, without any choice in the matter.

Edit to add:
Here's a relevant article (from https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/from-a-paramedic-in-the-uk) about road transport in Europe atm:

--- Quote ---My brother have a transport company that, along with hundreds of other companies (more then 3,000 3.5 tonnes vans among all those companies) are working with the biggest European delivery company, doing mostly transport of mechanical parts and other heavy industries parts across ALL European countries.

He received the e-mail informing him and everyone else that the company is no longer delivering transport orders, starting immediately, suspending ALL orders immediately.

Every company that still have vans running, are free to recall of them back to their bases, before the contracted period is expiring, with no penalties attached.

Why this information is a big effin deal : virtually all of the transport orders (except sensitive stuff, like military transports and high value ones) were between factories and clients on the horizontal industry.

Over 3,000 3.5 tonnes vans from across Europe are no longer transporting anything...BECAUSE ALMOST ALL FACTORIES IN EUROPE ARE CLOSED for about 3-4 days now.

Now, I was expecting this to happen, but not before mid-April. I was expecting that transports to be the LAST to fall....and they were LAST to fall, because EVERYTHING else in Europe already fell.

The implications are HUGE. First, the oil prices will plummet. Secondly, not even Germany can sustain such a collapse for more then 1 month, where except food industry (which , on a side note, is already heavily affected in all of Europe), everything else is basically shut-down.

No wonder why ALL the leaders are pushing the "back to work" mantra.

But, here is the kicker : THEY CANNOT DO THAT. And this is where the 4th information, which is a brand new one, comes into play :

THERE IS NO WAY TO GAIN HERD IMMUNITY TO THE CHINESE VIRUS.

If they are lifting the lock-downs in the next 2 weeks...HELL WILL BREAK LOSE.

The Chinese Virus size makes it 3 times more able to mutate, compared to influenza, being 3 times larger.
Influenza virus is mutating every 1,000 infected or so. The Chinese Virus is doing it every 340 infected or so.

And...the Chinese Virus have a recombination function that allows it to replicate ANY protein from OTHER viruses that comes in contact with.

Mutations are not new strains. However, being able to mutate that fast, makes vaccines and herd immunity a pipe dream for AT LEAST 5-6 years.

Not to mention that at any point, the virus can and will mutate and form one (or more) strains. The chances are 3 times higher to create a new strain then influenza.

The conclusions are the same as they were 1 or 2 months ago, with a twist : short of a miracle, we're fucked...the twist is that this virus have a serious potential to become almost an E.L.E.
--- End quote ---
schmitt trigger:
Not noticed the collapse of physical deliveries (yet).

What I've definitively experienced is a significant bottleneck in web based meeting apps.

There have been a few teleconferences which have been cancelled because half the people could not connect.

And certain video streaming sites have become sluggish.


And what you mention, the collapse of modern societies, is the stuff of horror movies.
NiHaoMike:

--- Quote from: schmitt trigger on March 27, 2020, 01:24:11 pm ---What I've definitively experienced is a significant bottleneck in web based meeting apps.

There have been a few teleconferences which have been cancelled because half the people could not connect.

And certain video streaming sites have become sluggish.

--- End quote ---
We definitely need an easy to use, decentralized teleconferencing system based on open source software. Relying on the cloud turns out to be not such a good idea after all. Add in mesh networking and it won't even be relying on centralized infrastructure.

For distribution of content, there's already an open source system that has proven itself to be resilient and scalable - Bittorrent.
Nusa:
I sent an overnight envelope from California to Indiana on Tuesday, with a guaranteed* delivery time by 3pm Wednesday. It took 25 hours to go from the full-service USPS Post Office I mailed from to the Regional Facility about 20 miles away. After that it moved quickly and got delivered at 1:30pm local on Thursday, a day late. Luckily for my purpose, 2 days was soon enough, but that's not the point. USPS failed.

I've no idea if it was a one-off problem, or if it is a systematic problem. Just a data point.

*guaranteed in this case means I can ask for a full refund, since it wasn't delivered on time.
schmitt trigger:
One thing is certain, one can live with a degraded infrastructure with minor inconveniences during normal times.

But in emergencies, that same degraded infrastructure can cause a total collapse.

Anyone who has played Jenga know this. The tower stands erect, until it doesn't

https://jenga.com/
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