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Piles of Tesla owners stranded at charge stations abandons their EV's.

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nctnico:
That doesn't matter. It all comes down to fuel consumption per km which translates to CO2 emissions per km.

tom66:
The only hybrids worth getting (imo) would be cars using drivetrains similar to the Toyota HSD, or plug-in hybrids if you use case allows a lot of electric-only operation.

I found the fuel economy in my PHEV on petrol only to not be much better than a regular petrol car, because it's just a parallel hybrid all it can really do is regen from braking and add a little bit of power boost on acceleration.  For motorway cruising at 70mph/120kph it was not much more efficient than any other car.

Mild hybrids are just there to game the test cycle, in the real world they do very little for emissions.  However the 48V architecture of most MHEVs is a stepping stone to having electric air conditioning and electric catalyst heating (formerly required for Euro 7, since dropped) which is why car manufacturers are going that way.

Marco:

--- Quote from: Dan123456 on January 20, 2024, 11:47:02 am ---I think we are far better off looking at the other ~90% of greenhouse emissions first rather than the ~10% that comes from cars (especially as all we are really doing with EV’s is kicking the emissions issue up the stream).

--- End quote ---
If you want net zero in 30 years in the west, everything has to happen in parallel. New major fossil fueled infrastructure and machinery needs to stop in the near future because it all needs to meet economic end of life by then (biofuel won't scale, synthetic fuel will be wildly expensive even in comparison to dealing with hydrogen).

If you give the rationalizers a finger, they will take off your arm. You have to force electrification + hydrogen and it all starts now, for 10% use, even for 1% use. Only the nichiest of niches can be allowed to imagine a future on biofuel or synthetic fuel. Otherwise everyone will and nothing will happen.

PS. every new concrete plant should be Brimstone process or similar too right about now, every new steelplant hydrogen reduction based etc.

David Hess:

--- Quote from: Marco on January 20, 2024, 03:30:42 pm ---If you want net zero in 30 years in the west, everything has to happen in parallel. New major fossil fueled infrastructure and machinery needs to stop in the near future because it all needs to meet economic end of life by then (biofuel won't scale, synthetic fuel will be wildly expensive even in comparison to dealing with hydrogen).

If you give the rationalizers a finger, they will take off your arm. You have to force electrification + hydrogen and it all starts now, for 10% use, even for 1% use. Only the nichiest of niches can be allowed to imagine a future on biofuel or synthetic fuel. Otherwise everyone will and nothing will happen.
--- End quote ---

The "needs to stop" plan will not work because of the economics which it ignores.

There are niche fossil fuel uses which cannot be currently replaced short of synthetic fuels, and the increased costs of synthetic fuels would be devastating.  For an example I will pick farm equipment.  We did the math a couple years ago on electric tractors and it was not feasible at any cost because of increased weight increasing ground pressure, which is already a problem, and if that was not enough, each tractor would require multiple heavy replaceable traction batteries, each of which costs more than an existing tractor.  Is increasing capitol equipment costs by almost an optimistic order of magnitude acceptable?  Do current solutions include the cost of famine?

Now there is a solution based on economics, but politics prevents it in multiple ways.  Simply apply the cost of the negative externalities of fossil fuels, which is another way of saying carbon tax.  Scale it up over time to prevent economic disruption.  The problems here however are just as intractable.  Citizens do not trust the government to collect another tax without rent seeking, and politicians will not support it because it will not facilitate rent seeking.

Miyuki:

--- Quote from: David Hess on January 20, 2024, 03:52:22 pm ---The "needs to stop" plan will not work because of the economics which it ignores.

There are niche fossil fuel uses which cannot be currently replaced short of synthetic fuels, and the increased costs of synthetic fuels would be devastating.  For an example I will pick farm equipment.  We did the math a couple years ago on electric tractors and it was not feasible at any cost because of increased weight increasing ground pressure, which is already a problem, and if that was not enough, each tractor would require multiple heavy replaceable traction batteries, each of which costs more than an existing tractor.  Is increasing capitol equipment costs by almost an optimistic order of magnitude acceptable?  Do current solutions include the cost of famine?

Now there is a solution based on economics, but politics prevents it in multiple ways.  Simply apply the cost of the negative externalities of fossil fuels, which is another way of saying carbon tax.  Scale it up over time to prevent economic disruption.  The problems here however are just as intractable.  Citizens do not trust the government to collect another tax without rent seeking, and politicians will not support it because it will not facilitate rent seeking.

--- End quote ---
EV tractors and long-haul trucks are a wet dream and all sane people know it. But you can have various gas fuels, like biomethane or hydrogen. Even reforming such fuels to liquid form is not that prohibitively expensive.
There will be some gas-fired powerplants anyway. Renewables cannot cover the needs of places like Europe during winter months. So there will be some form of huge gas storage.
Citizens do not trust the government because it is running like a chicken without a head from wall to wall. There are no long term plans based on science and experts.

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