Author Topic: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?  (Read 38403 times)

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Online floobydust

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #125 on: January 28, 2020, 02:19:32 am »
"A group of 29 Chinese researchers, writing in the British medical journal The Lancet, said the first person to become ill from the Wuhan virus was identified on Dec. 1 and had no link to the animal market. The magazine Science reported the findings of the study on Sunday.

“No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” the report said. At least 13 victims of the virus had no apparent exposure to the seafood market. The market sold wild animals such as civet cats until it was closed on Jan. 1.

“That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University, told Science.

Dr. Lucey, an infectious disease physician and adjunct professor of infectious diseases, told the online newsletter Science Speaks that China has offered no explanation for why some of the illnesses were not linked to the market.

“Infection must have occurred in November 2019 for the earliest reported patient with onset of symptoms Dec. 1,” he said.

“Whether this patient was infected from an animal or another person in November, directly or by [objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as clothes, utensils and furniture], his infection occurred at a location other than the Huanan seafood market.”
--------------------------------

"Five British medical researchers... By Feb. 4, “our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250,000,” they said. The researchers were identified as Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen and Chris P. Jewell of the Center for Health Informatics at Lancaster University; Derek A.T. Cummings of the Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute at the University of Florida; and Antonia Ho of the University of Glasgow Center for Virus Research."

source: https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/27/china-silent-coronavirus-origins-amid-wuhan-seafoo/
Medical journal The Lancet has made their articles on the 2019-nCoV data free to read.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #126 on: January 28, 2020, 03:10:10 am »
So just take him for his words, and there you have his political lebensraum . Chinese Confucian Nationalism
is real and in full swing, XI is a "coin"fucian. There are even scholar books on those political ideas.

So is your Western supremacy.

Regarding reports of number of infected and dead why on earth shall we trust blueskull anymore or less then any other info source! Common sense applies to that and man made climate change trolls.

My numbers are from Chinese CDC, which is also official source of WHO and worldwide governments.
Again, I have no respect to unofficial journalism, and it doesn't seem like they can back their numbers.

I have to confess, sometimes i actually find Blueskull a bit entertaining due to his outworldy political ideas.
And i bet if he immigrated to North Korea he most likely would be sent home again due to that sort of political radicalism! ;D

Then maybe Iran is for me.

Blueskull should try stand up comedy , i think he would be a success!

I really can't rival the position with you. There's no way I can say reporting without evidence should be allowed. I'll leave that level of BS to you.

A group of 29 Chinese researchers, writing in the British medical journal The Lancet, said the first person to become ill from the Wuhan virus was identified on Dec. 1 and had no link to the animal market. The magazine Science reported the findings of the study on Sunday.

I went through that paper, and nothing suggested there's no link between the market and infections.
Sure, out of 41 cases, 27 had no direct link to the market, but keep in mind that the disease is proven to transmit from person to person.
If you've been focusing on real time Chinese news, you will know there are actually many cases of person to person.


“Infection must have occurred in November 2019 for the earliest reported patient with onset of symptoms Dec. 1,” he said.

China had covered up the incident for about 3 weeks, so the first infection could be before first week of December.
CCP secretary of Wuhan municipal government and Hubei provincial Dept of Health deputy were all fired as a result.

“Whether this patient was infected from an animal or another person in November, directly or by [objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as clothes, utensils and furniture], his infection occurred at a location other than the Huanan seafood market.”

Which contradicts with his later statement "Now it seems clear that seafood market is not the only origin of the virus, he said. But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now."

I see no reason not to think the virus came from the market, then spread to other people while the first infected was still in incubation period.

There have been reported cases that person A got infected, spread to person B and C, B and C then showed symptoms, only then A shows symptoms.

So early statistics could be completely useless, unless you can find someone who is completely irrelevant (not even in Wuhan) which had symptoms before it breaks out.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #127 on: January 28, 2020, 03:26:24 am »
Serpenza and many others including Chinese gov have reported long time ago about Chinese fake food and strange food sources apparently bat soup is a dish in not only China but several countries.
Paul points out scientists say bats high probability for the source of the corona virus.
Whos reporting do you trust Simon?

Don't they all point to the same thing?

Chinese gov did push for an apology of the bat soup but they haven't made raids until now on that freakish "strange animal market", so?

The particular market was raided ASAP, the general practice of selling exotic animals was banned a few days later.

Chinese government has it own way of doing things. We don't trust emergency plans. We depend on our leaders and their consultants to make emergency plans on the go.
Human makes mistakes, and human takes time to make and execute decisions. It makes sense for the government to take a few days to get things sorted out.

This is interesting why setting a quarantine facility on fire?
https://www.rt.com/news/479235-hong-kong-quarantine-building-torched/

What else do you expect from HK rioters? They want to stay away from everything China.
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #128 on: January 28, 2020, 04:33:25 am »
A side by side screenshot of inexpensive N95 grade respirators stock at Element14 (/Newark Canada) taken with a 24 hours span, yesterday vs today. 2600 masks gone within 24 hrs (prices in CAD) and it seems the stock may be empty by tomorrow.

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Offline DTJ

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #129 on: January 28, 2020, 04:48:59 am »
A side by side screenshot of inexpensive N95 grade respirators stock at Element14 (/Newark Canada) taken with a 24 hours span, yesterday vs today. 2600 masks gone within 24 hrs (prices in CAD) and it seems the stock may be empty by tomorrow.

(Attachment Link)

Hardware stores, pharmacies and office works places that sell the masks are also low on stock or sold out completely in Western Australia. It may be complicated her as the stock may have been depleted by our eastern states people using them to combat the bush fire smoke.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #130 on: January 28, 2020, 05:00:27 am »
NOTE: This message has been deleted by the forum moderator Simon for being against the forum rules and/or at the discretion of the moderator as being in the best interests of the forum community and the nature of the thread.
If you believe this to be in error, please contact the moderator involved.
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« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 07:25:54 am by Simon »
 

Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #131 on: January 28, 2020, 05:10:03 am »
From World Health Organization 2019-nCoV Situation Reports:

20-Jan 282 cases, 3 countries
21-Jan 314 cases, 3 countries
22-Jan 581 cases, 4 countries
23-Jan 846 cases, 6 countries
24-Jan 1320 cases, 9 countries
25-Jan 2014 cases, 10 countries
26-Jan 2798 cases, 11 countries

(They get released at about 0:00 UTC at https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ )

I really don't like the look of that curve... On track for 3,900 to 4,000 in tomorrows report.

On Jan 27 according to BBC :"The number of total confirmed cases in China rose to 4,515 as of 27 January, up from 2,835 a day earlier."

The link for sitrep-7 on the WHO site goes to a reporting form, so maybe not available yet?

My gut feeling is that it's going to be very difficult to put a lid on this one.
Bob
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Offline BravoV

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #132 on: January 28, 2020, 05:49:15 am »
.... Overall China seems to be handling this as well or better than I would expect any other country to do.  Better in some aspects, worse than others.  As a particular example the action to quarantine a region is a sound response to an unknown danger.  I can't imagine this being done successfully in the US with all of the cries about personal rights, discrimination and the like that would occur.

Personally I'm so impressed with the speed of building the emergency hospital there ...  :o

-> Coronavirus: China's history of building hospitals in times of crisis

"Construction has already started on the first facility, with enough space for 1,000 patients, which is expected to be completed by 3 February."

"The second, which is designed to have 1,300 beds, is due to be finished within three weeks."

"During the SARS outbreak in 2003, 7,000 people worked day and night in Beijing, taking just seven days to build the Xiaotangshan facility."

Offline SparkyFX

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #133 on: January 28, 2020, 06:26:26 am »
I was always thinking whether any infections can be get from Chinese packages like ones from ebay, aliexpress.
TEA or not TEA, you should stop licking your new testgear/components.

Aren't viruses like these spread by droplet infection?
Support your local planet.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #134 on: January 28, 2020, 06:34:04 am »
Those "high quality" N95 disposable masks are indeed a better grade mask.  But like all of the disposable masks require careful fitting, a fortunate face shape and usually no glasses to actually keep particles out.  Most of the pictures posted here of these disposable masks show them fitted so most of the air will go around instead of through the filter material.

If you are really worried go to your hardware or home improvement store and get a real cartridge respirator.  Then get some N95 cartridges for it.  You can wear glasses with these.  They are bulky, heavy and noticeably harder to breath through.  That is a good thing, it means the air is actually going through the filter.

Go quickly because most stores only stock a couple. They cost about $40 USD. 

They are worth having if you sand, paint, mix concrete or live in an area subject to smoke from bush or forest fires.
 
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Offline ebastler

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #135 on: January 28, 2020, 06:36:46 am »
Aren't viruses like these spread by droplet infection?

They can be spread by "smear infection" -- someone touching a door handle while carrying virus material on their hand, somebody else touching that handle, then touching their mouth/nose/eyes. How long a virus can remain active when exposed to environmental conditions varies a lot, anywhere from minutes to weeks.

So it's not impossible that a virus could be spread inadvertently via a parcel. Could this particular corona-virus? No idea.
 

Offline station240

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #136 on: January 28, 2020, 09:11:20 am »
Five million people left Wuhan before the lockdown, where did they go?
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-27/5-million-people-left-Wuhan-before-the-lockdown-where-did-they-go--NACCu9wItW/index.html


Shenzhen is 8th for plane passengers travelling from Wuhan before the Lockdown.
38,000 people is still a lot.

There is another story I can't find at the moment, that states there have been Coronavirus cases found in every major city in China.
Not unexpected given this is the chinese new year period, couldn't have been a worse time for this to happen.

I hope for most of the infected people, this is little more than a bad flu they get over.
 
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #137 on: January 28, 2020, 10:20:30 am »
There is another story I can't find at the moment, that states there have been Coronavirus cases found in every major city in China.

Every province, rest of Tibet.
 

Offline ebastler

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #138 on: January 28, 2020, 01:53:43 pm »
Here's an interesting datapoint I was not aware of:

Regular flu causes a couple hundred fatalities in Germany every year (confirmed by lab tests). There are strong fluctuations year-over-year; 2017/18 was a particularly hefty flu season, with 1674 deaths due to influenza in Germany confirmed by lab results.

A statistical analysis suggests that the actual number of deaths caused by flu is significantly higher still, around 20 000 in strong flu seasons. (https://influenza.rki.de/Saisonberichte/2018.pdf, page 47; German only.)

But it's the one confirmed corona virus infection in Germany which makes the headlines...
 

Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #139 on: January 28, 2020, 02:05:28 pm »
But it's the one confirmed corona virus infection in Germany which makes the headlines...

That's how our brains work, it's fairly well studied. Call it "risk compensation", "normalisation of deviance", etc. More people die falling off ladders than are killed by terrorists.

The combination of "new + external threat" is what triggers people, and the media who sell clicks know that.

I used to have a chart on the cubicle wall breaking down cause of death. The biggest killers, like heart disease get a "meh" response. OTOH, people find it fascinating how many people die of choking on peanuts.

On a practical level, health organisation are generally geared up for a "normal" level of flu, but even winter flu season puts a strain on resources in the UK. A small additional level of infection means people queuing outside hospitals or being sent home, simply because the hospitals are full.
Bob
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #140 on: January 28, 2020, 02:46:48 pm »
The reason for the attention is that the fatality rate is not yet known accurately, but seems like it might be higher than flu.  Flu kills thousands, but infects millions.  US CDC posts that typically about 9 to  45 million get the flu and 12k to 61k die each year.  Roughly a 0.1% death rate.  Estimates for the death rate for corona virus range seem to be ten or more times higher, though I haven't seen a credible direct comparison.  A more meaningful comparison might be the number of deaths from flu that resulted in hospitalization.  Same source says that number is roughly 8% which is in the ballpark for reported corona virus.  But at this point who knows how they compare?  With no vaccine available some worry seems reasonable.
 

Offline imo

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #141 on: January 28, 2020, 02:57:10 pm »
There is the vaccination against flu which works pretty well.
99.99% flu deaths in Europe are elderly people and people with other health complications affecting their immune system.
People get pretty nervous with new viruses they know a shit about, and where is no chance to get a vaccine soon (it may take 10-15y).


 

Offline paullo

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #142 on: January 28, 2020, 03:01:21 pm »
Here's an interesting datapoint I was not aware of:

Regular flu causes a couple hundred fatalities in Germany every year (confirmed by lab tests). There are strong fluctuations year-over-year; 2017/18 was a particularly hefty flu season, with 1674 deaths due to influenza in Germany confirmed by lab results.

A statistical analysis suggests that the actual number of deaths caused by flu is significantly higher still, around 20 000 in strong flu seasons. (https://influenza.rki.de/Saisonberichte/2018.pdf, page 47; German only.)

But it's the one confirmed corona virus infection in Germany which makes the headlines...

Exactly this. Coronavirus is a sub-strain of bird flu but "bird flu" doesn't sell news anymore because everyone realised the above...

On another note, I'm stocking up on Lyme Disease, that should go well with Coronavirus.
 

Offline imo

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #143 on: January 28, 2020, 03:10:12 pm »
Bird flu is a business as usual, even today in EU we have bird flu.
Spanish flu in 1918 infected 500mil and ~10% were dead. Mostly young people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
Quote
The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died. With about a third of the world population infected, this case-fatality ratio means 3% to 6% of the entire global population died.[2] Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million people in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people,[3] while current estimates put the death toll at probably 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million.[41][5] These estimates would correspond to three to five percent of Earth's human population at the time.[42]

This flu killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years.[43] However, the Black Death killed a much higher percentage of the world's then smaller population.[44]
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 03:33:00 pm by imo »
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #144 on: January 28, 2020, 03:46:53 pm »
But it's the one confirmed corona virus infection in Germany which makes the headlines...

Your ordinary flu does kill, but the mechanism and death rate are at least well known. Yes, it is very contagious, but the death rate is very low.
The new virus is yet to be fully understood and no one knows if it will exponentially explode, plus the death rate is quite high, though not as many are infected.

A 1M population disease with 0.1% mortality rate kills 1k people, and a 1000 population 10% mortality rate disease kills 100 people, and apparently the latter warrants more horrid.
 

Offline MT

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #145 on: January 28, 2020, 08:36:30 pm »
So from where does the corona virus come from? Bats, snakes, fish, cats,Wuhan Lab4, insects, water? People should be much more aware of virus like the corona as the Spanish flu killed more people then the WW1 it self and in those times they didnt have airliners spreading the virus within hours, thank you very much!
About a decade ago the Mexican flu infected about 33% of the earth's population. It is likely due to better medicine (vaccination) and health that the fatalities wheren't very high.

Modern day biological warfare tools are Facebook and Youtube to make people not vaccinate their kids.

The problem is virus resistance and mutation. Antibiotics is a problem not a solution a doctor told me the other day.
That is a different topic. Antibiotics work against bacteria; not virusses! Vaccins which have been used for decades against common but deadly deceases like Polio, Smallpocks, Measles, etc are very effictively eradicated if enough people are vaccinated agains't these. Mutation isn't a real problem because the vaccinations work by preparing our immune system for an attack from a certain type of virus. Making a large number of people believe the vaccins are dangerous is equal to biological warfare because the effect is the same.

I know, i just mentioned antibiotics as generic problem which it it is along with everything else. Mutation is a real
problem with viruses, tons of research on this topic , viruses do mutates. Look into how they handled HIV and how
its dealt with nowadays.

It seam that BillGates fundation is behind the corporation (PIRBRIGHT Institute) thats behind the patent behind
Corona virus strains. https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

Then you can listen to Bill him self on how he wants to reduce world population with vaccines due to CO2
climate change , whether or not you think its a conspiracy i leave it open for you to decide by your self.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=4vzFeiKH1jQ&feature=emb_logo
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 08:40:32 pm by MT »
 

Offline dnwheeler

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #146 on: January 28, 2020, 09:00:05 pm »
It seam that BillGates fundation is behind the corporation (PIRBRIGHT Institute) thats behind the patent behind
Corona virus strains. https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

That is not a patent on the illness-causing corona virus (i.e., no one "invented" the virus). This is a patent for an lab-modified, attenuated variation used to produce vaccines. It also isn't based on the current strain, which is newly discovered.
 

Offline MT

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #147 on: January 28, 2020, 09:24:15 pm »
NOTE: This message has been deleted by the forum moderator Simon for being against the forum rules and/or at the discretion of the moderator as being in the best interests of the forum community and the nature of the thread.
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« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 09:49:46 pm by Simon »
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #148 on: January 28, 2020, 09:50:15 pm »
Tell ya what MT, you decide, shall i ban you or lock the thread?
 

Offline MT

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Re: Pneumonia virus in China - Can Ebay packages be infected?
« Reply #149 on: January 28, 2020, 09:57:35 pm »
Tell ya what MT, you decide, shall i ban you or lock the thread?
Ban for what??! For referring to what Blueskull noted previously?! or his personal attacks on me? Why not communicate via PM instead? Besides i suggest you lock the tread. Sorta clear Blueskull dont follow forum rules, no? I just try to discuss origin of the virus isnt that one part thread is about?
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 09:59:51 pm by MT »
 


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