SpaceX IPO

[Electrodynamic]

IPO rumor 1.5T
bezos is not gonna sit there
gates must be laughing at all of them

Interesting that nobody mentions the obvious problem.

If two large satellites ever collide the tens of thousands of pieces will take out even more satellites and those pieces take out even more and so on ie. Kessler syndrome. There are over 170 million pieces of space debris currently orbiting Earth, with about 30,000 larger than a softball.

So it's basically just a waiting game for the next really big solar storm to change a few orbits and it's game on. It reminds me of the movie "Don't Look Up,"

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." Albert Einstein

[Electrodynamic]

Elon musk reminds me of the movie "Don't look up" and this video.

[SiliconWizard]

I'm glad to see that the innovators and visionaries all agree that space is a priority.

While I agree with Psi that it's important for the future of humanity and to have something to look forward to collectively, it's certainly not a "priority".

There's a common myth that using resources for space somehow prevents us from addressing issues on Earth, and I see above the myth about an overpopulated Earth as well.

This is not a "myth". Money doesn't grow on trees. Any dollar that is invested in space projects is not invested in something else.
Now whether we would actually invest that amount on anything actually useful and beneficial for humanity if we cut "space" expenses is a different question. The answer right now is IMO: very likely not.

So I still prefer for us to invest in space exploration rather than fuel endless wars.

[Cyclotron]

I'm glad to see that the innovators and visionaries all agree that space is a priority.

While I agree with Psi that it's important for the future of humanity and to have something to look forward to collectively, it's certainly not a "priority".

I'm okay with you having the view that it's not a priority. As a father and, hopefully, a grandfather soon, I see it as a priority for the human race. There's too much risk keeping all the eggs in this basket.

There's a common myth that using resources for space somehow prevents us from addressing issues on Earth, and I see above the myth about an overpopulated Earth as well.

This is not a "myth". Money doesn't grow on trees. Any dollar that is invested in space projects is not invested in something else.
Now whether we would actually invest that amount on anything actually useful and beneficial for humanity if we cut "space" expenses is a different question. The answer right now is IMO: very likely not.

So I still prefer for us to invest in space exploration rather than fuel endless wars.

The view that resources spent on space would be spent on something else is a fallacy, and hence the myth that space exploration must come at the cost of some other endeavor. That's simply not true. I have seen no evidence that we have or will sacrifice other endeavors for the sake of space exploration and commercialization. The commercialization of space is likely to bring further abundance of resources.

The space race itself was started as a part of the Cold War between the USSR and the US. Not that I'm a proponent of war or spending on it. War gave us GPS, and I use it in my lab every day for time/frequency. Solar energy owes its existence to space exploration, a la Vanguard 1. The number of things that came from the war machines and space is all but endless.

Bringing this back to the topic at hand. SpaceX's IPO is interesting in the above context in that it may become one of the few space industry companies, if not the only one, to go public that didn't originate from a company born out of war and arms.

Commercialization of space has left the genie's proverbial bottle. Destroying SpaceX and the rest of the industry would produce no positive outcomes for any other endeavor.  I'm willing to be proven wrong.

[EEVblog]

Interesting that nobody mentions the obvious problem.
If two large satellites ever collide the tens of thousands of pieces will take out even more satellites and those pieces take out even more and so on ie. Kessler syndrome. There are over 170 million pieces of space debris currently orbiting Earth, with about 30,000 larger than a softball.

This really concerns me. The problem is, it's not a problem, until it very suddenly is.

[Electrodynamic]

Interesting that nobody mentions the obvious problem.
If two large satellites ever collide the tens of thousands of pieces will take out even more satellites and those pieces take out even more and so on ie. Kessler syndrome. There are over 170 million pieces of space debris currently orbiting Earth, with about 30,000 larger than a softball.

This really concerns me. The problem is, it's not a problem, until it very suddenly is.

As Buzz Lightyear might say to infinity and beyond consequences be damned.
Hell we might even get a ring of debris like Saturn, that would be cool.

[Andy Chee]

Interesting that nobody mentions the obvious problem.

If two large satellites ever collide the tens of thousands of pieces will take out even more satellites and those pieces take out even more and so on ie. Kessler syndrome. There are over 170 million pieces of space debris currently orbiting Earth, with about 30,000 larger than a softball.

Happened a few years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_satellite_collision

[Analog Kid]

I'm glad to see that the innovators and visionaries all agree that space is a priority.

While I agree with Psi that it's important for the future of humanity and to have something to look forward to collectively, it's certainly not a "priority".

I'm okay with you having the view that it's not a priority. As a father and, hopefully, a grandfather soon, I see it as a priority for the human race. There's too much risk keeping all the eggs in this basket.

I think that is, quite literally, an insane point of view. One which is certainly not unique to you.

The idea that the Earth--the Earth, our home and Mother!--is somehow just a temporary habitat, a disposable planet if you will, is sheer lunacy (and hubris into the bargain). The stuff born of overactive sci-fi-fed imaginations. Hey, imagination is a good thing overall, until it reaches an extreme after which it isn't.

Nope; this is our home, like it or not. And if we totally fuck it up, then that's on us, and it's game over. Not the glorious spread of humanity throughout the universe, as if we had some kind of special dispensation (because were So Special) to spread our seed into space.

[Cyclotron]

Interesting that nobody mentions the obvious problem.
If two large satellites ever collide the tens of thousands of pieces will take out even more satellites and those pieces take out even more and so on ie. Kessler syndrome. There are over 170 million pieces of space debris currently orbiting Earth, with about 30,000 larger than a softball.

This really concerns me. The problem is, it's not a problem, until it very suddenly is.

Agreed. So the choices are:
- Regulate space access for the planet Countries are responsible for damages of their equipment and required to avoid harm and contamination.
- Do the best you can to not be the problem.
- If the problem happens, be part of the solution

There's plenty of evidence that satellite killers are orbiting. International treaty

[EEVblog]

- Do the best you can to not be the problem.

That would mean Starlink and every other company than plans to have 10,000 satellites for *insert latest thing here*. Don't see that happening, in fact it's only just begun.
I even have a friend who has a funded startup in this regard.

[BitBangBro]

- Do the best you can to not be the problem.

That would mean Starlink and every other company than plans to have 10,000 satellites for *insert latest thing here*. Don't see that happening, in fact it's only just begun.
I even have a friend who has a funded startup in this regard.

Fundamental  problem with Starlink is that, when it comes to practical, real life, Elon tends to be an idiot.
This thing looks to be MIC program under another name and with civillian veil. First thing he should have done was to "open source" it, put it under UN umbrella as a singular system that is to benefit everyone nad position himself as the first operater of the network.

This would preclude mad race of every other lunatic control freak with deep pockets to launch their own swarm.

[EEVblog]

Fundamental  problem with Starlink is that, when it comes to practical, real life, Elon tends to be an idiot.
This thing looks to be MIC program under another name and with civillian veil. First thing he should have done was to "open source" it, put it under UN umbrella as a singular system that is to benefit everyone nad position himself as the first operater of the network.

If you imposed that requirement then no one would bother doing it.

[Marco]

There are proposals for variable geometry solar sail satellites which could maintain altitude in low earth orbit without propellant. PV with cooling would be heavier than a sail, but net positive thrust remains positive regardless of weight.

A large surface area datacentre satellite would then be possible in near polar low earth orbit with a tiny amount of eclipsing. No Kessler syndrome in LEO.

[Psi]

No Kessler syndrome in LEO.

There is, it just doesn't last all that long due to all the drag.
But you still lose a huge number of LEO sats in very short timeframe and getting to upper orbits means going through LEO.
A LEO Kessler would remove a sizable chunk of SpaceX profit and crash their share price as well as other space companies.
And the space stations would have to be abandoned.

I think we will get a noticeable, and very obvious and alarming, rise in incidents well before we get a runaway Kessler syndrome.
So my feeling is we will get enough warning about it before it's too late.

I'd be more worried about a government trying to cause it on purpose to hurt their enemies space infrastructure than worried about it happening on its own.

[BitBangBro]

Fundamental  problem with Starlink is that, when it comes to practical, real life, Elon tends to be an idiot.
This thing looks to be MIC program under another name and with civillian veil. First thing he should have done was to "open source" it, put it under UN umbrella as a singular system that is to benefit everyone nad position himself as the first operater of the network.

If you imposed that requirement then no one would bother doing it.

Why ? Technically, Starlink would be exactly where it is today.
Only , there would be no direct competition from Bezos, Meta, Microsoft, EUropean version etc.
There would be no suspicion of other countries WRT to mass surveillance etc

SPaceX would be running it for the foreseeble future until worthy competitor arrives.
Not unlike current competition, only much more transparent, clean and much less orbital clutter.

[Electrodynamic]

BitBangBro

Fundamental  problem with Starlink is that, when it comes to practical, real life, Elon tends to be an idiot.
This thing looks to be MIC program under another name and with civillian veil. First thing he should have done was to "open source" it, put it under UN umbrella as a singular system that is to benefit everyone nad position himself as the first operater of the network.

This is patently naive in my opinion given the recent U.S. 2025 National Security Strategy calling for U.S. dominance in all sectors of the Western Hemisphere. In fact, the opposite of what your suggesting is happening.

The more likely scenario is that Musk and SpaceX will continue to monopolize the space sector or be given his hat and shown the door. Musk was already spanked once when the EV subsidies were removed. So Musk is going to be a good little peon and do as he is told imo.

[BitBangBro]

This is patently naive in my opinion given the recent U.S. 2025 National Security Strategy calling for U.S. dominance in all sectors of the Western Hemisphere. In fact, the opposite of what your suggesting is happening.

If SpaceX is what he says it is, he shouldn't have to fear them. MIC needs him far more than vice-versa.
Problem is that he might have lied about that and that plenty of MIC programs with the staff has simply migrated to SpaceX under the "humanitarian" veil.
Starlink looks alarmingly close to previous mass-surveillance project that failed to get funding.

Its development also looks suspiciously glitch-free. Everything else Elon touched had its highs and lows.
But Starlink has no lows. It's like most of it was developed and perhaps tested long before it came to SpaceX.

The more likely scenario is that Musk and SpaceX will continue to monopolize the space sector or be given his hat and shown the door. Musk was already spanked once when the EV subsidies were removed. So Musk is going to be a good little peon and do as he is told imo.

THis is why I said that he looks to be an idiot.
Not that he seriously needs EV subsidies, but it's obvious that he is controlled to some extent.

One doesn't screw everything vaginal that he happens to trip over and is then shocked because some of that happened to be cunts.
One doesn't make a bazzillion kids everywhere and is then shocked about people extorting him through the same kids etc.
One doesn't get in a plane and try to fuck a stewardess that happened to be there an expect everything to stay hidden.
One doesn't get into a position of many-billionaire with plenty of people that he pissed off or screwed on his way up daily and is then shocked over some strangers climbing over the fence of his house etc etc.

[Electrodynamic]

BitBangBro

THis is why I said that he looks to be an idiot.
Not that he seriously needs EV subsidies, but it's obvious that he is controlled to some extent.

I think your mistaken.
"Tesla vehicles have benefited significantly from government subsidies, with estimates suggesting that around 60% of Tesla's profits in recent years came from regulatory credits and subsidies related to electric vehicle sales."

It's wild that 60% of Tesla's profits may have come from taxpayers which could make it the biggest scam in U.S. history. However to most people who actually check their facts this was no mystery. I mean, any fool could make a business work when given a 60% subsidy. We could assume that when Musk got his 56 billion dollar bonus 33 billion of it was from the taxpayers. . 4D chess indeed.

As well "SpaceX has received over $38 billion in government funding, which includes contracts, loans, subsidies, and tax credits."

[Cyclotron]

This is patently naive in my opinion given the recent U.S. 2025 National Security Strategy calling for U.S. dominance in all sectors of the Western Hemisphere. In fact, the opposite of what your suggesting is happening.

If SpaceX is what he says it is, he shouldn't have to fear them. MIC needs him far more than vice-versa.
Problem is that he might have lied about that and that plenty of MIC programs with the staff has simply migrated to SpaceX under the "humanitarian" veil.
Starlink looks alarmingly close to previous mass-surveillance project that failed to get funding.

Its development also looks suspiciously glitch-free. Everything else Elon touched had its highs and lows.
But Starlink has no lows. It's like most of it was developed and perhaps tested long before it came to SpaceX.

The more likely scenario is that Musk and SpaceX will continue to monopolize the space sector or be given his hat and shown the door. Musk was already spanked once when the EV subsidies were removed. So Musk is going to be a good little peon and do as he is told imo.

THis is why I said that he looks to be an idiot.
Not that he seriously needs EV subsidies, but it's obvious that he is controlled to some extent.

One doesn't screw everything vaginal that he happens to trip over and is then shocked because some of that happened to be cunts.
One doesn't make a bazzillion kids everywhere and is then shocked about people extorting him through the same kids etc.
One doesn't get in a plane and try to fuck a stewardess that happened to be there an expect everything to stay hidden.
One doesn't get into a position of many-billionaire with plenty of people that he pissed off or screwed on his way up daily and is then shocked over some strangers climbing over the fence of his house etc etc.

BitBangBro and Electrodynamic; go hate on Musk somewhere else.
Didn't read the first post, or just don't care because you have to post it here?

[Electrodynamic]

Cyclotron

BitBangBro and Electrodynamic; go hate on Musk somewhere else.

I don't hate Elon Musk in any form and think he is an exceptional businessman. I'm simply adding context and facts relating to how Musk operates some of his companies which could affect SpaceX in the future. I mean the valuation is around $137 billion but some people are suggesting a $1.5T IPO. How do we get to a $1.5T IPO from $13B revenue?, it's absurd imo.

[Psi]

no Musk arguments please, or you'll be in the dog corner and soldering up "sorry, I was wrong" on veroboard 

We had a thread for Musk comments and it got locked.

[BitBangBro]

Sorry, after 5 friggin pages I forgot fine print of all the rules.

I also didn't mean to attack him directly, just to say that one of unique properties of Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, Neuralink etc is that they use Elon as their "Iron Man" avatar and that their public perceptions strengths and weaknesses stem from that.

One of the weaknesses of SpaceX is their complex dance with MIC while pretending to be all about humanity, and their Avatar man is big part of that.
Since IPO is coming, this will be a point where Iron Man will  have to somehow reconcile:

• Let's get our Ass To  Mars! (for Humanity, of course!)
• MIC programs, covert and otherwise. (BTW, how many people in the SpaceX team are straight out of Boing, McDonnel Douglas etc ?)
• Profit interests of public shareholders. What of all this is to produce profit, who is to benefit and what are the tradeoffs ?

My point was that he was crux of all the deals with the Devil that SpaceX had made in the past and with IPO Devil might be coming for his due.

[Marco]

Just to get a rough idea ... current rollout solar panel arrays would be around 200 kg to power a 8 GPU pod. So only half the price to launch as to buy the GPU If you could integrate really light weight liquid cooling loops (segment them and use intercoolers, and just plan on loosing some to micrometeorites) it's really not that outrageously costly to put them in space, compared to how outrageously costly they are to begin with.

Obviously it would need to be done in huge numbers to get the non recurring costs down, but still.

[BitBangBro]

Just to get a rough idea ... current rollout solar panel arrays would be around 200 kg to power a 8 GPU pod.

Energy problem is the least of all problems for orbital AI.

These things age faster than a ripe banana.
On Earth, one can simply swap the racks. And keep everything around them, most of the time.
What do you do with orbital AI ?
Scrap the whole thing ?
How long would it take to replace whole fleet ?
How busy would our skies be just for that ?
How much extra CO2 that "Iron Man" supposedly cares so deeply about ?

[Psi]

Just to get a rough idea ... current rollout solar panel arrays would be around 200 kg to power a 8 GPU pod.

Energy problem is the least of all problems for orbital AI.

These things age faster than a ripe banana.
On Earth, one can simply swap the racks. And keep everything around them, most of the time.
What do you do with orbital AI ?
Scrap the whole thing ?
How long would it take to replace whole fleet ?
How busy would our skies be just for that ?
How much extra CO2 that "Iron Man" supposedly cares so deeply about ?

Yeah,  I think current thinking is to have the compute boxes modular so you can replace them like docking/undocking sats and keep the panels and thermal radiators as is. But yes, lots of issues to solve for sure.

I for one am against burning up TB of vram on reentry when next gen GPUs come out.
I want the vram on my GPU for local LLM