Tariff Watch

[calexanian]

Here is the link to the USTR.GOV list of items included in the new %25 china import tariff. Most of the specific electronics stuff is in the middle, to end portion. Passives like MLCC, resistors, etc, are specifically included. Most PCB's will fall into one of these categories as well. Something of note is how finished consumer goods like phones and such are not included. Apple Samsung and the like I am sure lobbied to keep them out and us small manufacturers get screwed.

I am now searching for companies who have caps and resistors that do not touch china. There are several in Thailand I am looking into now.

Please post if you have any legitimate encounters with this new dumb tariff or ways around it.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/List%201.pdf#link=%7B%22role%22:%22standard%22,%22href%22:%22https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/List%201.pdf%22,%22target%22:%22_blank%22,%22absolute%22:%22%22,%22linkText%22:%22U.S.%20tariffs%20on%20Chinese%20goods%22%7D

[Gribo]

I should have imported that reactor earlier. Damn. 

[ProBang2]

I should have imported that reactor earlier. Damn. 

To Canada? There are problems, too?     

(Occupied by South Canada???)

[Gribo]

Counter tariffs will take place. Everything from South Canada will become more expansive.

[Zero999]

This has been discussed before, yes it's silly how the US are shooting themselves in the foot. It's all political and will only cause job losses.

[Seph.b]

Counter tariffs will take place. Everything from South Canada will become more expansive.

Are you guys plotting to invade US?

I still say "54°40' or Fight".

[Nominal Animal]

Everything from South Canada will become more expansive.

Everything in and from South Canada is always becoming more and more expansive.

[rstofer]

As long as Canada imposes a 270% tariff on US dairy products, I would shut down the border completely.  Nothing in, nothing out!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/a-guide-to-understanding-the-dairy-dispute-between-the-us-andcanada/article34802291/

NAFTA is a joke!  There's nothing "Free" about that tariff.

[jonovid]

this could be interesting.  if the cost of Chinese electronics go's up 

[rstofer]

this could be interesting.  if the cost of Chinese electronics go's up 

Why is this a concern?  For the consumer, it is a price vs necessity tradeoff.  Just how bad do I need that bit of electronics?  Besides, a lot our electronics comes from South Korea; Samsung is a huge player here.

I don't know how it will affect Apple but that isn't high on my list of concerns.  Walmart will have a problem at some point.  When the $750B proposed tariffs come in, instead of $85B, then maybe China will get the message on Intellectual Property Rights and tariff free trading.  Or not...

China needs to sell to support their economy.  We don't need to buy.  That's why Trump figures that in the long haul we will get what we want.  The customer is always right!

[Nominal Animal]

China needs to sell to support their economy.  We don't need to buy.

Correct in a free market, not correct in China.

There is no free market on this planet anyway.  Nobody knows the actual rules even the big economies go by, because they're constantly being tweaked by players who wish to gain in the short term, and do not care about even catastrophic effects if they think there is a chance they could get away with it.

my license plate is SIGSEGV

I use public transport. Fortunately, it is excellent here, and SIGBUS is rare.

[JohnnyMalaria]

We don't need to buy.

Yes we do. There are things available from China that do not exist in any similar form from a US manufacturer. Case in point: 4-channel 100MHz DDS ready to go - USB/serial etc etc. $100. Nearest off-the-shelf plug-and-play/turn key option from the US that would meet my specification? $4000. Size of the Chinese device - fits in the palm of your hand. Size of the US device - 3U instrument case.

Of course, the increase in price for a $100 item is manageable. If the same item was manufactured in the US then I'd buy it even at twice the price.

US industry continues to shoot itself in the foot. It's like the car industry. It bitched and moaned in the 60's and 70's about the trade deficit with Japan regarding car sales. "Not fair! Not fair!" Someone eventually decided to understand why. The reason? US manufacturers refused to invest in the plant required to make...drum roll..right-hand drive cars - and they wondered why the Japanese didn't want them (plus the fact the quality of the US cars was utter shite). 

[CatalinaWOW]

There are some rules that can be derived from reading these discussions.

1.  Existing tariffs=good.  New tariffs=bad.   No one discusses why this is.  There are many, many tariffs in place.  How did world trade survive in their presence.  Why are the new ones bad.

2.  Tariffs on things I don't buy=non issue.  Tariffs on things I buy=end of the world.  Apparently people on this forum are economically disconnected from everyone else.

3.  My country is the injured party.  Played by everyone.

4.  My country's rational, measured and targeted response will result in exactly what I want.  As demonstrated by each countries exact conformance to the predicted response.  .

I really don't think the members of this forum are going to do better than the world leaders who actually have access to the controls of this machine.  Unfortunately the evidence is that we would do no worse.

[boB]

I don't know how it will affect Apple but that isn't high on my list of concerns. 

Me neither.   But Apple will be just fine because people sell their pets and their animals to afford their stuff.

boB

[boB]

We don't need to buy.

Yes we do. There are things available from China that do not exist in any similar form from a US manufacturer. Case in point: 4-channel 100MHz DDS ready to go - USB/serial etc etc. $100. Nearest off-the-shelf plug-and-play/turn key option from the US that would meet my specification? $4000. Size of the Chinese device - fits in the palm of your hand. Size of the US device - 3U instrument case.

Of course, the increase in price for a $100 item is manageable. If the same item was manufactured in the US then I'd buy it even at twice the price.

US industry continues to shoot itself in the foot. It's like the car industry. It bitched and moaned in the 60's and 70's about the trade deficit with Japan regarding car sales. "Not fair! Not fair!" Someone eventually decided to understand why. The reason? US manufacturers refused to invest in the plant required to make...drum roll..right-hand drive cars - and they wondered why the Japanese didn't want them (plus the fact the quality of the US cars was utter shite). 

We  (US) absolutely DO need to buy from China and other countries !  For several reasons but this is only part of my list...

I am part owner in a US company that manufactures electronic products for the alternative energy industry and employ around 75 people doing this, in the US.  SMT and assembly and all that.  We buy parts that would not be obtainable in the US at least with the better quality that we require as well as price.  ICs, electrolytic capacitors, aluminum castings, custom plastic parts, etc.  We get whatever we can locally including sheet metal.  Even sheet metal prices have gone WAY up recently. We don't see much, if any good coming from this trade war.  It has not, in our opinion been thought out properly.  It will hurt everybody at least in the short term.  Except maybe for the US government which will take the money and squander it.

boB
K7IQ

[donotdespisethesnake]

We don't see much, if any good coming from this trade war.  It has not, in our opinion been thought out properly.

That may be understatement of the year Trump doesn't think at all, he reacts with his gut by self admission. Like other populist demagogues, he sells his supporters a lie they want to believe. That is the same as most career politicians, the difference is that Trump seems to truly believe his own nonsense and conspiracy theories, career politicians know they must promise one thing to get elected but can only deliver something different when in power.

This trade war will be a complete failure, and probably have the reverse effect that is intended. China will be more determined to be self-sufficient rather than put trust in unreliable partners.

[Delta]

1.  Existing tariffs=good.  New tariffs=bad.   No one discusses why this is. 

That, Sir, is an absolutely bloody brilliant statement, and one I have not considered before.

It perfectly describes some of the arguments going on here in the UK regarding leaving the EU. "OMG, it would be terrible if we have to pay tarrifs on stuff we import from the continent!" - "oh yeah, we currently have to pay EU tarrifs on stuff we import from the rest of the world, but that's fine."

[a59d1]

Tariffs only work if you're the only party that can enact them. Since the real world allows all parties to enact reactionary tariffs, the only possible outcome is lower efficiency and higher costs.

[ebastler]

Tariffs only work if you're the only party that can enact them. Since the real world allows all parties to enact reactionary tariffs, the only possible outcome is lower efficiency and higher costs.

Yup. Essentially all governments involved are introducing additional taxes, to be paid by importers and eventually consumers. The governments can then use that money for subsidies, to compensate the importers for their increased costs of goods... 

[shteii01]

There will not be trade war.
Chinese government needs to feed its people by importing food from other countries.  US is one of the major exporters of food to China.  Even if China reduces its food purchases from US, other countries don't have the food to supply China completely, so those other countries will buy from US and sell to China.  China will pay premium either way.

A couple of weeks ago on the radio in the business news they reported that even though Mexico put tariffs on US pork, the sales of pork to Mexico were 5% higher than last year.  I mentioned it to my dad, he said they probably reselling it to China.

[VK5RC]

Tariffs at the Port of entry are just one factor, many countries 'support' their own industry - directly through farm/mine/factory subsidies, or indirectly through state sponsored research, fuel/energy rebates etc. Playing with the international exchange rate is also a classic way of introducing a non-level playing field.
I can't think of a country's government that doesn't 'play games' - but that is what they are voted (mostly) in to do!

[calexanian]

For many products the BOM may be over 30% of the total cost of the device and most parts come from China. There is NO tax deductions for using U.S. sourced parts, and in most cases we no longer have the capacity to produce the parts here. for our company this equates to a 10% increase in cost, on top of the increase in steel cost implemented 6 months ago. we will have to adsorb a 12% cost increase net on our product for the rest of the year. Not many hardware companies have the margins to do that. If we had a thriving parts and pcb production industry we could source from that fell in the price gap of current chinese parts plus the 25% fee it would make sense, but we do not. All this will do is force manufacturers to buy from china and pay the fee to the government lessening our ability to compete internationally.

[calexanian]

same here.

[Zero999]

1.  Existing tariffs=good.  New tariffs=bad.   No one discusses why this is. 

That, Sir, is an absolutely bloody brilliant statement, and one I have not considered before.

It perfectly describes some of the arguments going on here in the UK regarding leaving the EU. "OMG, it would be terrible if we have to pay tarrifs on stuff we import from the continent!" - "oh yeah, we currently have to pay EU tarrifs on stuff we import from the rest of the world, but that's fine."

That's a valid question. I suppose existing tariffs aren't so bad, because the status quo is known and new tariffs result in uncertainty which is bad for business.

As far as brexit is concerned: a similar principle applies but extra tariffs with the UK's largest trading partners are seen as worse than potentially lower ones from other countries.

[all_repair]

Existing tariff is bad, new tariff is worse not because old tariff is good.  It is because new tariff means more tariff, so more tariff is worse than less tariff. 

[CatalinaWOW]

I actually agree with you.  I am more responding to the finger pointing about who is to blame.  Sure the US initiated this round of tariffs, but apparently didn't respond to prior rounds.  But others say it is impossible to ignore tariffs and must be retaliated.

All of this is irrational, both the responses and the expectation of a rational response.

[all_repair]

Responsing to tariff is a complicated play.  Announcing you shall respond is a good way to prevent the initiating body to place the first punch.  So to avoid the fight.  After receiving the punch, should one returns the punch.  Not returning does it means the initiator shall not give more punches, and other bystander would not also start giving punches if they think you are an easy target.

[shteii01]

Chinese had to "save face" so their retaliation was NEVER in doubt.

The interesting thing is that everyone is "afraid" of China.  In about six months to a year, when the dust settles, we will see what happens to US.  If US comes out ok or better (which I believe we will), then other players (cough cough Europe cough cough) will see that they can put tariffs on Chinese stuff and not just survive, but do fine.  If then Europe follows up with their own round of tariffs, then expect an avalanche of other countries putting tariffs on China.

Responsing to tariff is a complicated play.  Announcing you shall respond is a good way to prevent the initiating body to place the first punch.  So to avoid the fight.  After receiving the punch, should one returns the punch.  Not returning does it means the initiator shall not give more punches, and other bystander would not also start giving punches if they think you are an easy target.

[CatalinaWOW]

If one return punch stopped all fights there wouldn't be any fights.  Nor does every unreturned punch result in more punches.  Not in street fights, not in economic competition, not in international wars.  It isn't science.  You can't calculate the results.  Only in hindsight do some of the answers seem obvious, and even then there is real question as to what would have happened if other choices had been made. 

shteii01 has it right.  The issue is face.  No less for the Europeans commenting here than for the Chinese.  And certainly for the US.
Which is the irrational part.  Everyone is feeling wronged, everyone is saying we won't let you shove us around anymore.  With little regard to the actual facts.

[innkeeper]

There will not be trade war.
Chinese government needs to feed its people by importing food from other countries.  US is one of the major exporters of food to China.  Even if China reduces its food purchases from US, other countries don't have the food to supply China completely, so those other countries will buy from US and sell to China.  China will pay premium either way.

A couple of weeks ago on the radio in the business news they reported that even though Mexico put tariffs on US pork, the sales of pork to Mexico were 5% higher than last year.  I mentioned it to my dad, he said they probably reselling it to China.

China on Friday imposed $34 billion in retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, cars and other products.
now we export only 130 billion in products, so already China has upped their average tariff from 5% to 30% an increase overall of 25%

now in contrast, the us has a lot more ability to impose tariffs on more goods considering we import 462 billion dollars in goods.
most of what China imports is equipment and technology to produce products to sell back to us or raw materials for the same, and lastly food and fuel.
our tariff increase, though 25% on some goods, just represented a pittance in comparison to the total imports. if average across all imports the tariffs only represent an overall tariff increase of 7%if you average it over all Chinese imports. the usa could go a lot further and has to in order for the original tariffs to be effective. id see a general increase in tariffs of all Chinese goods of 7% coming to offset china's move. the bold move would be to blanketly do what the Chinese did and increase the rate of all Chinese imports to 25%  ... let's see them match that.

maybe uncle sam could start buying and stockpiling soybeans, ... there are so many things that can be done.

the trade war as started and the USA has the leverage.

[innkeeper]

china will fight countries correcting trade imbalances tooth and nail, hell, it's in their best interest to do so.

most countries, and especially America, can only fault themselves for getting into that situation. and, they are the only ones that can dig themselves out.. if they have the stomach for it.

[all_repair]

CatalinaWow, it is not face.  The logic goes this way, the person going to impose tariff think tariff works.  However wrong is it, you cant convince him.  only way is to use his logic to tell him, tariff shall be imposed back.  If not returning tariff works, there was not one to start with, so how does it get started in the first place.  Due to the new economy and international outsourcing, the blue collar is not taken care of.  Trump has identified the pain rightly, but treatment is totally wrong.  He has sold poison the patient as the medicine.  To the patient, Trump has to be right because he was the first that identify with him.   These trade deficits are people working hard to sell cheaper to US than US can make themselves, there is nothing ill about it.  The problem is the account deficit, and instead of saving on the war machines to balance the equation, now with additional taxes through tariff on US people, these taxes can be further wasted on US war machines.

[helius]

The US defense sector is the largest exporter in that sector in the world, with $142 billion in exports annually, so it certainly does not add to the current accounts deficit, quite the opposite. China imports $16 billion/year in aerospace and defense from the US (despite the international sanctions on weapons technologies).

In other words, if China wants absolute dictatorship in greater China region, China has to clone western technology and  sustain domestic needs independently

Interestingly, they are making some of that cloned technology publicly available. In 2017, the PLA declassified over 2,000 military and dual-use patents including a system for drone attitude stabilization.

[all_repair]

since 911, US had wasted 7 plus trillions on the wars at Syria, Iraq and another middle East country.  That is not including few hundreds of military bases outside US.  This is a huge load to carry.

[ebastler]

China on Friday imposed $34 billion in retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, cars and other products.
now we export only 130 billion in products, so already China has upped their average tariff from 5% to 30% an increase overall of 25%

Your math is quite flawed. If China introduces a new 25% tariff on imports worth $34billion, that's equivalent to an extra tariff of only 6.5% averaged over the $130 billion import volume.

[innkeeper]

China on Friday imposed $34 billion in retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, cars and other products.
now we export only 130 billion in products, so already China has upped their average tariff from 5% to 30% an increase overall of 25%

Your math is quite flawed. If China introduces a new 25% tariff on imports worth $34billion, that's equivalent to an extra tariff of only 6.5% averaged over the $130 billion import volume.

the extra 34 billion is ~25% of 130 billion...

not sure how you are working your math...

the tariff before that was 5% they increased it by 34 billion to match usa increase.

[ebastler]

the extra 34 billion is ~25% of 130 billion...
not sure how you are working your math...
the tariff before that was 5% they increased it by 34 billion to match usa increase.

In your earlier post, you were not talking about the percentage number of products that are covered by tariffs, but about the percentage value of products which China collects as tariff, right?

China has upped their average tariff from 5% to 30% an increase overall of 25%

[CatalinaWOW]

CatalinaWow, it is not face.  The logic goes this way, the person going to impose tariff think tariff works.  However wrong is it, you cant convince him.  only way is to use his logic to tell him, tariff shall be imposed back.  If not returning tariff works, there was not one to start with, so how does it get started in the first place.  Due to the new economy and international outsourcing, the blue collar is not taken care of.  Trump has identified the pain rightly, but treatment is totally wrong.  He has sold poison the patient as the medicine.  To the patient, Trump has to be right because he was the first that identify with him.   These trade deficits are people working hard to sell cheaper to US than US can make themselves, there is nothing ill about it.  The problem is the account deficit, and instead of saving on the war machines to balance the equation, now with additional taxes through tariff on US people, these taxes can be further wasted on US war machines.

So just hypothetically, the person imposing the first tariff is not operating on a logical basis.  Your statements seem to imply you believe this.  Now you say the only way to convince this person is to apply tariff back.  Might work if dealing with a logical person.  But in fist fights and trade wars logic is often not the first thing in line.  I hit you.  You hit me back.  I hit you harder.  You hit me back harder.  At what point in this chain does logic suddenly enter.  Usually when on side is so bloody they can't take the next punch.  The other side is usually in about the same condition.

If there is no other way than hitting back the future is very grim.  But I believe there are other options.  I have watched them work (and also fail).  The point is that while these other options don't always work, they offer the possibility of a less painful end state.  The end state in a trade war is so bad that some believe that short term pain is a better option.   We will never know the optimum course.  We will eventually know the outcome of the course we take, and history will of course say that whatever was done was inevitable. 

The trade deficits are a result of many things.  In many cases it is just the wealth of the US showing up.  Barring force it is impossible for one region or nation to stay wealthier than another.  But there are other reasons, including non-tariff barriers to trade.  These include laws which require local ownership, local standards, non staffing of ports of entry and a whole list of things.

US military presence in the world is one of those mixed bags.  Much of what is done (suppressing piracy, terrorism and the like) is useful and most nations of the world are glad that it is being done.  Most are also glad they are not footing the bill.  The US has mixed feeling about this also.  We are tiring of footing the bill for this, and loosing the capability of paying the bill.  Whether the world is happier when that ends is an open question.  Either someone else will step up to the plate and be the new target of resentment, or the world will become used to a higher level of danger.

[shteii01]

There will not be trade war.
Chinese government needs to feed its people by importing food from other countries.  US is one of the major exporters of food to China.  Even if China reduces its food purchases from US, other countries don't have the food to supply China completely, so those other countries will buy from US and sell to China.  China will pay premium either way.

A couple of weeks ago on the radio in the business news they reported that even though Mexico put tariffs on US pork, the sales of pork to Mexico were 5% higher than last year.  I mentioned it to my dad, he said they probably reselling it to China.

China on Friday imposed $34 billion in retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, cars and other products.
now we export only 130 billion in products, so already China has upped their average tariff from 5% to 30% an increase overall of 25%

now in contrast, the us has a lot more ability to impose tariffs on more goods considering we import 462 billion dollars in goods.
most of what China imports is equipment and technology to produce products to sell back to us or raw materials for the same, and lastly food and fuel.
our tariff increase, though 25% on some goods, just represented a pittance in comparison to the total imports. if average across all imports the tariffs only represent an overall tariff increase of 7%if you average it over all Chinese imports. the usa could go a lot further and has to in order for the original tariffs to be effective. id see a general increase in tariffs of all Chinese goods of 7% coming to offset china's move. the bold move would be to blanketly do what the Chinese did and increase the rate of all Chinese imports to 25%  ... let's see them match that.

maybe uncle sam could start buying and stockpiling soybeans, ... there are so many things that can be done.

the trade war as started and the USA has the leverage.

Argentina had bad soy bean crop.  They will be buying soy beans from US to fill their contracts with China.

[carljrb]

Canada imposes a 270% tariff on US dairy products

That's quite fair tough, considering you people are paying farmers 22.2B a year in subsidies (your agriculture is anything but fair). That's 73% of the farmer's market return. Plus, US milk is of lower quality. Those subsidies are just as "unfair" of an advantage for your farmers, and this just balances it out.

3.  My country is the injured party.  Played by everyone.

Exactly that. A whole lot of drama about being a victim, and quickly imposing tariffs on everything. Everyone loses, especially those trying to have a trade war against the whole planet...

[MT]

since 911, US had wasted 7 plus trillions on the wars at Syria, Iraq and another middle East country.  That is not including few hundreds of military bases outside US.  This is a huge load to carry.

Nope its 21 trillions and all unaccounted for since Pentagon dont have internal revisions of what they do and purchase.

[all_repair]

@CatalinaWow, it happened before when USA externalised their internal problem 20 year ago when it could not compete with the Japanese.  One demand lead to another, and Japan submitted until the last one.  But Japan had no chance to devalue the yen after inflated so much on US demand, and the world had seen at least 10 lost years of Japan some say 20 years.   Once an illogical and unreasonable demand got its way, it is an open invitation for more unreasonable and illogical demands like the US-Japan trade friction has shown.

[CatalinaWOW]

@CatalinaWow, it happened before when USA externalised their internal problem 20 year ago when it could not compete with the Japanese.  One demand lead to another, and Japan submitted until the last one.  But Japan had no chance to devalue the yen after inflated so much on US demand, and the world had seen at least 10 lost years of Japan some say 20 years.   Once an illogical and unreasonable demand got its way, it is an open invitation for more unreasonable and illogical demands like the US-Japan trade friction has shown.

This is a good example of one failure.  The only thing I am arguing with is your certitude that reciprocal tariffs will result in a good outcome.  The world has gone down the route of tit for tat tariffs before with terrible results.  Many think those were far worse than the lost decade or decades for Japan (which had several causes, including the one you mention).

I am also saying that when one player clearly doesn't have a full deck to operate with, the overall outcome is not likely to be improved by imitating that player.  But if you think arguing with an idiot is useful, go right ahead, I won't stop you.

[all_repair]

This is a good example of one failure.  The only thing I am arguing with is your certitude that reciprocal tariffs will result in a good outcome.  The world has gone down the route of tit for tat tariffs before with terrible results.  Many think those were far worse than the lost decade or decades for Japan (which had several causes, including the one you mention).

I am also saying that when one player clearly doesn't have a full deck to operate with, the overall outcome is not likely to be improved by imitating that player.  But if you think arguing with an idiot is useful, go right ahead, I won't stop you.

No one wins in a trade war.  It is very clear in all non-USA countries.  What the others are interested is not in the tariff war, but to stop it through the voters that voted for Trump.  Hope that works.  Why should the rest of the world be Japan that lost decades, but the very party that has the internal problem enjoy the benefits of bullying.  If the world spin into depression like the forgotten 1930, it can a good lesson for the next biggest player for the next 100 year.

[donotdespisethesnake]

It's been shown that the "tit for tat" policy works best https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat. Also, Trumps tariffs are really shooting the USA in the foot by targeting components and not finished goods. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/opinion/how-to-lose-a-trade-war.html

Trump has said he is already committed to a trade war, so I think we can say it has started. The US also lacks allies, and even worse has antagonised them with tariffs. Only 17% of Chinese exports go to the US.

Trump will inevitably lose the trade war and back down, as other Presidents have done. But he will win with his supporters for having tried. He will get turfed out at the next election, the new Pres will rip up all of Trumps policies, and the PRC will shake their head at the failure of "Western democracy". Politics is now just a show to entertain the masses.

[Bud]

All you said is just a bunch of opinions.

[MT]

Dumpf has not won anything, nor the other sides, trade wars is like an eye for an foot group battle in a closed 4 by 4meter room using hand grenades! Sit and count percentage tariffs, punishments when global trade is entirely interconnected and inter tangled the MAGA and MIA is just a angel dust dream, oligarchs the winners and middle class and below the pieces on the global chess board sacrificed at will, at any time , for any reason, even stupid and the morbid.

Politics is just a bad expensive theatrical play for the grey masses at their expense. 
The reason for this so called trade war is entirety US domestic.

[rstofer]

No one wins in a trade war.  It is very clear in all non-USA countries.  What the others are interested is not in the tariff war, but to stop it through the voters that voted for Trump.  Hope that works.  Why should the rest of the world be Japan that lost decades, but the very party that has the internal problem enjoy the benefits of bullying.  If the world spin into depression like the forgotten 1930, it can a good lesson for the next biggest player for the next 100 year.

You aren't going to change Trump voters.  If anything, they are going to double down and he will be reelected in 2020.  If you don't like him now, just wait until he is in his second term and can't run for reelection.

The working people are tired of supporting the rest of the world.  Whether it is NATO, the UN or unbalanced trade, the voters are angry and Trump is the manifestation of that anger.  Why should we support other countries when we can't afford to fix our own problems?  Trump is right!  Take care of America first.  If there is anything left over then consider spending it elsewhere.

Germany is a big economy.  Why don't they support NATO at the agreed financial level?  They're not even close and don't plan to be for the next 10 years - if then.  Why should we pay for their defense?  Do they think they are far enough away from the Russian border that they don't need to worry about it?  If so, why are we worrying about it?  Pull out!  Bring everything home.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/25/news/nato-funding-explained-trump/index.html

Estonia pays full price for NATO.  They have to!  They're right on the border and pretty easy for Russia to run right over.  But at least they are smart enough to realize they have a problem and had better support NATO at the full 2% of GDP.  Unfortunately, they are going to be tossed on the scrap heap when NATO collapses.  If the other countries don't increase their contributions, Trump will walk away.  The voters will support him!

Why should the voters support NAFTA when the Canadians impose a 270% tariff on our dairy products?  How is that 'Free Trade'?  The US has gotten the short stick in all of these agreements.  The best thing Trump did was cancel the TPP and TTIP agreements.  All NAFTA accomplished was moving auto manufacturing jobs to Mexico.  How did that help the US?

I don't think people understand the depth of the discontent in this country.  Hillary's defeat is one example!  She was the anointed one, absolutely guaranteed the presidency, no doubt about it, it was her turn. Until the voters had their say!  Notice which states helped crush her campaign.  States with working people!  Their views aren't going to change.

[donotdespisethesnake]

All you said is just a bunch of opinions.

First time on the internet? 

[donotdespisethesnake]

Dumpf has not won anything, nor the other sides, trade wars is like an eye for an foot group battle in a closed 4 by 4meter room using hand grenades! Sit and count percentage tariffs, punishments when global trade is entirely interconnected and inter tangled the MAGA and MIA is just a angel dust dream, oligarchs the winners and middle class and below the pieces on the global chess board sacrificed at will, at any time , for any reason, even stupid and the morbid.

Politics is just a bad expensive theatrical play for the grey masses at their expense. 
The reason for this so called trade war is entirety US domestic.

Doesn't every political leaders win support by creating fictional enemies or to render domestic threats?

Certainly, if leaders cannot stay in power by force, fear is an effective way to control the population and gain legitimacy for the government - "only we can protect you!". Sometimes they create real enemies, but obviously fictional ones carry less risk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_Nightmares

Trump plays well on American's natural paranoia. There are some who genuinely believe China is literally going to invade the US, probably "via Mexico".

[thm_w]

Why should the voters support NAFTA when the Canadians impose a 270% tariff on our dairy products?  How is that 'Free Trade'?  The US has gotten the short stick in all of these agreements.  The best thing Trump did was cancel the TPP and TTIP agreements.  All NAFTA accomplished was moving auto manufacturing jobs to Mexico.  How did that help the US?

I buy whey from US occasionally, and have not seen any hint of a tariff (but at consumer quantities). A lot of Canadians that live near the border also buy cheese and milk from the US tariff free as well.
https://www.dairyfarmers.ca/what-we-do/supply-management/myths-realities/canada-blocks-imports-of-dairy-products

I would prefer to have the tariff removed (if it is limited to bST free milk), but you make it sound like such a big deal when it is a small part of the big picture. Why potentially screw over 266 billion in exports, over a few billion?

Canada is currently our 2nd largest goods trading partner with $544.0 billion in total (two-way) goods trade during 2016. Goods exports totalled $266.0 billion; goods imports totalled $278.1 billion.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-us-canada-trade-deficit-numbers-1.4524824

[shteii01]

Both of my NASDAQ and BRIC etfs are up today.  Looking forward to them "going to the Moon!"

[rstofer]

I would prefer to have the tariff removed (if it is limited to bST free milk), but you make it sound like such a big deal when it is a small part of the big picture. Why potentially screw over 266 billion in exports, over a few billion?

It's an attitude problem.  We charge the EU a 2.5% tariff on their cars coming into the US, they charge us 10% for our cars coming into the EU.  How is that fair?

So, we are the largest economy in the world, maybe it's time we recomputed some of these tariffs.  Match what is charged to us.  Note that Germany is willing to back off on that auto tariff if the EU will go along and the EU will go along because Germany IS the EU.  Maybe we won a little bit.  Not that it matters, the Europeans don't buy our cars anyway so changing the tariff is pretty meaningless.  Which is why they're willing to do it.

To me, fair trade would be no tariffs on anything.  No government support of any segment of the economy.  Compete fair and square.  But it doesn't work that way because there is always some group that wants to be defended.  The EU auto manufacturers, EU aircraft manufacturers, the Canadian dairy farmers, the US steel industry, the US timber industry, etc.

There should be a tariff on all US autos made in foreign countries and imported to the US.  This would be created to discourage our companies from leaving the US and continuing to get their product back in duty free after having killed off thousands of US jobs.  Trump is talking about this and I support it 100%.  Note that MANY foreign cars are at least assembled in the US.  BMW, Toyota, Nissan are built here but a LOT of American cars are built in Canada, Mexico and Europe.  If I had a 4 door Silverado it would have come from Mexico.  I have the US built 2 door model so I'm good.

https://www.hotcars.com/10-foreign-cars-made-in-the-us-and-10-american-cars-that-arent/

Either we have protectionist tariffs or we don't.  Half in and half out isn't working well.

Why do this?  Because we can't keep selling our country to China, one shipload at a time.  Funny thing:  Everybody was worried about Japan in the '60s and '70s.  They were buying up golf courses, high rise buildings, beach front property - and then they got hammered in a downturn and their economy has never recovered.  Their GDP growth has been essentially 0% since 2009:

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annualized

In any event, the tariffs introduced so far are pretty harmless.  More symbolic than anything.  Kind of a shot across the bow.

Trump wants the US out of NAFTA - I agree 100%.  That treaty was a giveaway of US jobs and money.

There was a brief period between 1989 and 1993 when Canada and the US had no tariffs.  Now we have that 270% tariff on US dairy products to Canada.  Where did that idea come from?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/15/what-is-nafta-and-what-would-happen-to-u-s-trade-without-it/

[Eka]

Funny thing:  Everybody was worried about Japan in the '60s and '70s.  They were buying up golf courses, high rise buildings, beach front property - and then they got hammered in a downturn and their economy has never recovered.  Their GDP growth has been essentially 0% since 2009:

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annualized

It should be noted that Japan's workforce is aging, and shrinking in size. It's very hard to grow an economy when that is happening. If the US curtails immigration like many want to see happen, we will be in the the same boat.

[JPortici]

Maybe we won a little bit.  Not that it matters, the Europeans don't buy our cars anyway so changing the tariff is pretty meaningless.  Which is why they're willing to do it.

yeah.. the only (new) american car i'd ever buy would be a jeep.
which is going to be manufactured in italy anyway 

[rstofer]

It should be noted that Japan's workforce is aging, and shrinking in size. It's very hard to grow an economy when that is happening. If the US curtails immigration like many want to see happen, we will be in the the same boat.

I don't think we're trying to throttle 'merit' immigration.  Immigrants with advanced education, language skills or other skill sets that may be in demand.  We need all the smart people with skills that we can get!

What we don't want is illegal immigration and immigrants with no advanced education or skill sets.  There just aren't going to be jobs at that end of the pay scale and, inevitably, the costs fall on the rest of society.

The US birth rate has been dropping for decades and is quite similar to Japan's.  It's not even at a replacement level.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+birth+rate

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/key-reason-birth-rate-declining_us_5b0725cfe4b0568a88097feb

[shteii01]

To add to rstofer.  People who invest money into US also get green cards, green card allows owner to apply for US citizenship after 5 years.  So.  Invest X today, get green card, apply for US citizenship in 5 years.

It should be noted that Japan's workforce is aging, and shrinking in size. It's very hard to grow an economy when that is happening. If the US curtails immigration like many want to see happen, we will be in the the same boat.

I don't think we're trying to throttle 'merit' immigration.  Immigrants with advanced education, language skills or other skill sets that may be in demand.  We need all the smart people with skills that we can get!

What we don't want is illegal immigration and immigrants with no advanced education or skill sets.  There just aren't going to be jobs at that end of the pay scale and, inevitably, the costs fall on the rest of society.

The US birth rate has been dropping for decades and is quite similar to Japan's.  It's not even at a replacement level.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+birth+rate

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/key-reason-birth-rate-declining_us_5b0725cfe4b0568a88097feb

[thm_w]

It's an attitude problem.  We charge the EU a 2.5% tariff on their cars coming into the US, they charge us 10% for our cars coming into the EU.  How is that fair?

So, we are the largest economy in the world, maybe it's time we recomputed some of these tariffs.  Match what is charged to us.  Note that Germany is willing to back off on that auto tariff if the EU will go along and the EU will go along because Germany IS the EU.  Maybe we won a little bit.  Not that it matters, the Europeans don't buy our cars anyway so changing the tariff is pretty meaningless.  Which is why they're willing to do it.

To me, fair trade would be no tariffs on anything.  No government support of any segment of the economy.  Compete fair and square.  But it doesn't work that way because there is always some group that wants to be defended.  The EU auto manufacturers, EU aircraft manufacturers, the Canadian dairy farmers, the US steel industry, the US timber industry, etc.

Yes that is true.

These relatively small industries (compared to the population of the country), have far too much influence and say. Dairy, auto, coal, whatever, somehow they are more important than the average citizen when it comes to written laws.

[ebastler]

These relatively small industries (compared to the population of the country), have far too much influence and say. Dairy, auto, coal, whatever, somehow they are more important than the average citizen when it comes to written laws.

Car manufacturing in Germany is not a "relatively small industry". Combined with all the suppliers of components, it is certainly one of the major industries, especially when it comes to exports. One can still argue whether they have too much influence on politics, but there is a significant economic impact behind it.

That being said -- the strange US move of having their ambassador invite the German car manufacturers' CEOs to propose a tariff deal did cause quite an outcry in politics. This is not how tariff "deals" are made over here.

[rstofer]

That being said -- the strange US move of having their ambassador invite the German car manufacturers' CEOs to propose a tariff deal did cause quite an outcry in politics. This is not how tariff "deals" are made over here.

Perhaps the ambassador didn't realize that all tariffs are decided in Brussels for the entire EU.  He might not have known that!  Or...

More likely, he is following Trump's orders to sideline the EU and go straight for the main players.

[DerekG]

There will not be trade war.

Hasn't it already started?

[thm_w]

Car manufacturing in Germany is not a "relatively small industry". Combined with all the suppliers of components, it is certainly one of the major industries, especially when it comes to exports. One can still argue whether they have too much influence on politics, but there is a significant economic impact behind it.

That being said -- the strange US move of having their ambassador invite the German car manufacturers' CEOs to propose a tariff deal did cause quite an outcry in politics. This is not how tariff "deals" are made over here.

For germany yes you are right, ~20% of industry revenue is significant: https://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Content/EN/Invest/_SharedDocs/Downloads/GTAI/Industry-overviews/industry-overview-automotive-industry-en.pdf
US and Canada, its a small fraction, 1-2% of GDP.

[shteii01]

There will not be trade war.

Hasn't it already started?

Nope.
We are not going to drive Chinese from US, Walmart will still bring shiploads of stuff from there.

China will not stop importing food from US.  They might get larger portion of it though third parties to make it look like they are not buying it from us directly, but in the end they still need that food.

Let me tell you how sad Chinese situation is.  Even Russia! is now planting soy beans, to sell to China. 

[all_repair]

Maybe we won a little bit.  Not that it matters, the Europeans don't buy our cars anyway so changing the tariff is pretty meaningless.  Which is why they're willing to do it.

yeah.. the only (new) american car i'd ever buy would be a jeep.
which is going to be manufactured in italy anyway 

Over here, all cars have the same tax.  People buy basicallyJapanese and German cars.  Korean
share is climbing, and those with tighter budget goes for Chinese cars.  Perception of American car is not fuel efficent, not cheap, not reliable, not most powerful.  But google, microsoft, facebook, AWS, etc are huge success.  The deficit in trade is covered or exceeded by surplus in services, as a whole is we are like EU that US still enjoy some surplus.  Trump sold the trade deficits, but not tell on the service surpluses, and make believe that all the past US trade teams were stupid that sold US away.   If US is running account deficit with the whole world, where do they get the money to waste on the wars.  The money wasted on wars are the rest of the competitors saved. 

[Bassman59]

It should be noted that Japan's workforce is aging, and shrinking in size. It's very hard to grow an economy when that is happening. If the US curtails immigration like many want to see happen, we will be in the the same boat.

I don't think we're trying to throttle 'merit' immigration.  Immigrants with advanced education, language skills or other skill sets that may be in demand.  We need all the smart people with skills that we can get!

What we don't want is illegal immigration and immigrants with no advanced education or skill sets.  There just aren't going to be jobs at that end of the pay scale and, inevitably, the costs fall on the rest of society.

So, what about all of the Americans lining up to work in the fields, picking the crops that feed this country?

{crickets}

[rstofer]

So, what about all of the Americans lining up to work in the fields, picking the crops that feed this country?

{crickets}

And there is no reason we don't have a 'Guest Worker' visa.  Many other countries have such a thing and the idea is to have people working during the picking season (farming) and back home during the growing season.  But no!  For some reason, the idea is unworkable according to our duly elected representatives.

[shteii01]

Maybe we won a little bit.  Not that it matters, the Europeans don't buy our cars anyway so changing the tariff is pretty meaningless.  Which is why they're willing to do it.

yeah.. the only (new) american car i'd ever buy would be a jeep.
which is going to be manufactured in italy anyway 

Over here, all cars have the same tax.  People buy basicallyJapanese and German cars.  Korean
share is climbing, and those with tighter budget goes for Chinese cars.  Perception of American car is not fuel efficent, not cheap, not reliable, not most powerful.  But google, microsoft, facebook, AWS, etc are huge success.  The deficit in trade is covered or exceeded by surplus in services, as a whole is we are like EU that US still enjoy some surplus.  Trump sold the trade deficits, but not tell on the service surpluses, and make believe that all the past US trade teams were stupid that sold US away.   If US is running account deficit with the whole world, where do they get the money to waste on the wars.  The money wasted on wars are the rest of the competitors saved.

You say: "over here".  Where is the over here?

My first car was Japanese.  My second was Korean.  My third is also Korean.  I did not buy American simply because they were at least 2k more than anything else of the same class.

However, I kinda understand what you are saying about American cars.  Where ever you are, you are not alone in not buying American cars.  Did you hear that Ford will stop selling small cars in US?  That came out a week or two weeks ago.  All those Ford Fiestas and I think Focuses are going away, possibly forever.

[rstofer]

Did you hear that Ford will stop selling small cars in US?  That came out a week or two weeks ago.  All those Ford Fiestas and I think Focuses are going away, possibly forever.

Ford is losing money on small sedans.  Nobody wants to buy them, the market is in SUVs.  That will hold as long as gas prices stay modest.

Electric cars are getting all the attention.  Every manufacturer is doing something with electric cars.  FWIW, the 2017 Chevy Bolt is a great all-electric car.  I'm biased, I have one...

[DerekG]

All those Ford Fiestas and I think Focuses are going away, possibly forever.

At least the Ford Fiesta's that are imported into Australia are built in Thailand. The diesel engines for them are made in Europe.

[CatalinaWOW]

Agree on perception of cars from various countries.  One of the interesting things is that the time constant of this perception is measured in decades, partly determined by Nyquist.  When people only buy a car every few years it takes a long time to change perceptions.  US cars were absolutely terrible in the 70s-80s.  Have been steadily improving since, and there is some evidence that current US cars are as good or better than any in the world.  But that (if true) has only been so for a handful of years.  Not nearly long enough to move the needle from decades of mediocrity.  That same thing works in reverse.  Certain German cars are riding the past hard, and if uncorrected will eventually find their reputation lagging.

[Bassman59]

So, what about all of the Americans lining up to work in the fields, picking the crops that feed this country?

{crickets}

And there is no reason we don't have a 'Guest Worker' visa.  Many other countries have such a thing and the idea is to have people working during the picking season (farming) and back home during the growing season.  But no!  For some reason, the idea is unworkable according to our duly elected representatives.

Our duly-elected representatives, especially those who are in the party that considers itself the “party of business,” are feckless morons. (And I’m being kind. Many of them are actually malevolent.)

[IanMacdonald]

The really amusing thing is the way the EU leaders create the biggest closed trade zone on the planet, then cry foul when Trump does likewise.   

Er, OK, well now you see what it's like from the other side of the fence.

[rstofer]

All those Ford Fiestas and I think Focuses are going away, possibly forever.

At least the Ford Fiesta's that are imported into Australia are built in Thailand. The diesel engines for them are made in Europe.

Those would be the same engines that can't pass the environmental requirements and have 'cheat' code in the ECU?  Volkswagon, BMW, those guys?

It's telling when German cities are banning diesel cars...

[schmitt trigger]

Agree on perception of cars from various countries.  One of the interesting things is that the time constant of this perception is measured in decades, partly determined by Nyquist.  When people only buy a car every few years it takes a long time to change perceptions.  US cars were absolutely terrible in the 70s-80s.  Have been steadily improving since, and there is some evidence that current US cars are as good or better than any in the world.  But that (if true) has only been so for a handful of years.  Not nearly long enough to move the needle from decades of mediocrity.  That same thing works in reverse.  Certain German cars are riding the past hard, and if uncorrected will eventually find their reputation lagging.

There is this Spanish saying: "Crea fama y echate a dormir. "
In English, Make your reputation and you can go to sleep.

That reputation can be either good or bad. And it applies to individuals, to corporations, even to countries.

For instance, let's say you have two very similar products; one made in Germany and the other made in China.

Without reviewing or checking anything else, in the mind one would immediately assume that first product is expensive but high quality, the second cheap and poorly done.
This assumption may not be entirely true, but for better or worse that is the reputation they have got.

Japanese products used to have a piss-poor reputation. It took them decades of very hard work after WW2 to remove that reputation.

[MT]

Dumpf has not won anything, nor the other sides, trade wars is like an eye for an foot group battle in a closed 4 by 4meter room using hand grenades! Sit and count percentage tariffs, punishments when global trade is entirely interconnected and inter tangled the MAGA and MIA is just a angel dust dream, oligarchs the winners and middle class and below the pieces on the global chess board sacrificed at will, at any time , for any reason, even stupid and the morbid.

Politics is just a bad expensive theatrical play for the grey masses at their expense. 
The reason for this so called trade war is entirety US domestic.

Doesn't every political leaders win support by creating fictional enemies or to render domestic threats?

The ancient saying goes: You get what you asked for, ie you get what you vote for, disregard wheter its
psychopath Killary or Dumpf, or Boris Johnsson or Nicolas Sarkozy, failures lies not at psyco politicians
but voting people.

So its estimated by science the planet population consists of 2.5% psychopaths, start deal with that
maybe but just maybe things can change to the better.

[MT]

No one wins in a trade war.  It is very clear in all non-USA countries.  What the others are interested is not in the tariff war, but to stop it through the voters that voted for Trump.  Hope that works.  Why should the rest of the world be Japan that lost decades, but the very party that has the internal problem enjoy the benefits of bullying.  If the world spin into depression like the forgotten 1930, it can a good lesson for the next biggest player for the next 100 year.

You aren't going to change Trump voters.  If anything, they are going to double down and he will be reelected in 2020.  If you don't like him now, just wait until he is in his second term and can't run for reelection.

The working people are tired of supporting the rest of the world.  Whether it is NATO, the UN or unbalanced trade, the voters are angry and Trump is the manifestation of that anger.  Why should we support other countries when we can't afford to fix our own problems?  Trump is right!  Take care of America first.  If there is anything left over then consider spending it elsewhere.

Germany is a big economy.  Why don't they support NATO at the agreed financial level?  They're not even close and don't plan to be for the next 10 years - if then.  Why should we pay for their defense?  Do they think they are far enough away from the Russian border that they don't need to worry about it?  If so, why are we worrying about it?  Pull out!  Bring everything home.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/25/news/nato-funding-explained-trump/index.html

Estonia pays full price for NATO.  They have to!  They're right on the border and pretty easy for Russia to run right over.  But at least they are smart enough to realize they have a problem and had better support NATO at the full 2% of GDP.  Unfortunately, they are going to be tossed on the scrap heap when NATO collapses.  If the other countries don't increase their contributions, Trump will walk away.  The voters will support him!

Why should the voters support NAFTA when the Canadians impose a 270% tariff on our dairy products?  How is that 'Free Trade'?  The US has gotten the short stick in all of these agreements.  The best thing Trump did was cancel the TPP and TTIP agreements.  All NAFTA accomplished was moving auto manufacturing jobs to Mexico.  How did that help the US?

I don't think people understand the depth of the discontent in this country.  Hillary's defeat is one example!  She was the anointed one, absolutely guaranteed the presidency, no doubt about it, it was her turn. Until the voters had their say!  Notice which states helped crush her campaign.  States with working people!  Their views aren't going to change.

Dumpf/Killary is just the symptom of a global disease not the cure, maybe start listen to Bill Binney, Colonel Laurence Williams etc after reading som of Sun Tzu , Gusave le Bong, George Owells, Samuel Langhorne Clemens, etc?
 
Regarding your idea you don't think people understand the depth of the discontent in your and other countries
politics often plays out in the most peculiar way let me give you possible example, Dumpf may cause so much harm to the USA from the 1 party and it's two branches internal civil war a 2 party emerge consisting of 192 million Americans.

[ebastler]

The really amusing thing is the way the EU leaders create the biggest closed trade zone on the planet, then cry foul when Trump does likewise.   

I think you misunderstood something there. The EU concept is largely about removing barriers within the union, not creating barriers to the outside. (And that removal of internal barriers seemed to be what half of the UK population was unhappy about when they cast their votes a while ago.)

[Delta]

The really amusing thing is the way the EU leaders create the biggest closed trade zone on the planet, then cry foul when Trump does likewise.   

I think you misunderstood something there. The EU concept is largely about removing barriers within the union, not creating barriers to the outside. (And that removal of internal barriers seemed to be what half of the UK population was unhappy about when they cast their votes a while ago.)

The EU concept is to protect German manufacturers and French farmers from competition, and to prevent small enterprises from challenging the big boys.

At its core is protectionism and corporatism.

[calexanian]

OP here. I want to target this back to people reporting if they are actually affected directly on Parts and equipment they  are purchasing out of China. Not policy conjecture. There is enough of that on the evening news.

[Delta]

OP here. I want to target this back to people reporting if they are actually affected directly on Parts and equipment they  are purchasing out of China. Not policy conjecture. There is enough of that on the evening news.

Fair enough. Sorry for the tangent...

[calexanian]

I got another email today from a vendor. This time Sager Electronics. They will be adsorbing the tariff until august 15, then will be passing it along. Since parts are a commodity market and manufacturers work in multiple countries the country of origin will be determined at time of shipment. I have also heard from other distributors they are attempting to source from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, etc.

[schmitt trigger]

This topic is also a hot topic on many other forums which I attend.

Another poster in another forum had an interesting thought: that this import duty is a mischievous way to offset the revenue shortfall caused by the tax reform. By hiding this duty (tax) on the final product's price, they can avoid calling it a "tax", which would be political suicide.

[helius]

It's a story we've seen play out before.

[ebastler]

OP here. I want to target this back to people reporting if they are actually affected directly on Parts and equipment they  are purchasing out of China. Not policy conjecture. There is enough of that on the evening news.

[Bassman59]

Another poster in another forum had an interesting thought: that this import duty is a mischievous way to offset the revenue shortfall caused by the tax reform. By hiding this duty (tax) on the final product's price, they can avoid calling it a "tax", which would be political suicide.

That's giving Trump way more credit than he deserves.

Trump views trade in the same way he views every "deal" with which he is involved -- you win or you lose. He wants to punish our trade partners for their perceived (by him) "cheating" at trade. Unfortunately for nearly everyone, that's not how international trade and politics works.

[helius]

"Revenue shortfalls" are purely political problems for the legislature, they have no economic relevance for the sovereign currency issuer.

[shteii01]

This topic is also a hot topic on many other forums which I attend.

Another poster in another forum had an interesting thought: that this import duty is a mischievous way to offset the revenue shortfall caused by the tax reform. By hiding this duty (tax) on the final product's price, they can avoid calling it a "tax", which would be political suicide.

ACA became a law.  It was completely internal to US, meaning it is a tax even though it is not called tax, and President Obama served two terms so it was not political suicide for him.

On the other hand, the Congress did turn over quiet a bit because of ACA passing, so it was political suicide for many congress persons.

Basically any government action that increases government income can be interpreted as some kind of tax.

If you want another interesting idea in addition to the one you already listed, here is one:  there is an item that has increased tariff, the vendor brings it from China, pays the tariff and then increases sales price of the item to compensate for increased cost.  The vendor resides in a state that has a Sales Tax (7% in my state).  When a customer comes to buy this item, the customer pays sales tax.  So.  The item used to cost 100 USD, my sales tax is 7% so I paid 107 USD with 7 USD going to the state government.  Now the cost of the item is increased by 25%, it is now 125 USD, with 7% sales tax price becomes 133.75 USD with 8.75 USD going to the state government.

[Mr. Scram]

Being legitimate immigrant, I admit I'm biased towards illegal immigrants, but I have to say that having to work with people who don't speak English is hard, and I definitely don't want to work with people who I can't talk with.

If I have to learn Spanish to talk with technicians that fix my house whom I paid with an American wage standard, I will not be happy.

What's wrong with speaking Spanish? The US has no official language. Historically French, English and Spanish all make sense. Currently the last two seem to be practical.

[Mr. Scram]

I don't mind Spanish people speaking Spanish, or Hispanic Americans speaking Spanish within their community.
But I called a so called American company for service, and I spoke English with the company representative, and my actual service was carried out by people who can't speak English.
I don't mind if it's Spanish or whatever language -- if I didn't get to speak with the workers working on my house in English, I am not happy.

Sure, there's not an official language in US, but there's a de-facto universal language in US.

Not wanting to sound pedantic, but if it was universal you wouldn't have your problem.

[donotdespisethesnake]

This thread went wildly off-topic (partly my fault), but I am interested in the effects of tariffs in electronics biz.

Apart from soybean farmers and Harley Davison, it seems minimal so far?

[calexanian]

Friday came another round of lead times going up due to “Supply Issues” from distributors. This is getting very serious.

[innkeeper]

Friday came another round of lead times going up due to “Supply Issues” from distributors. This is getting very serious.

gee... if there were only another source  ..

[calexanian]

Two things.

Allied Electronics sent out their notice. Essentially the parts from China will have their prices increased accordingly as new inventory arrives.

Secondly

Overnight there is a new business model. Chinese firms selling items through brokers in Hong Kong and shipped out from there. Hong Kong is not included in the tariffs evidently. They are probably even changing the country of origin to hong kong.

[Mr. Scram]

Two things.

Allied Electronics sent out their notice. Essentially the parts from China will have their prices increased accordingly as new inventory arrives.

Secondly

Overnight there is a new business model. Chinese firms selling items through brokers in Hong Kong and shipped out from there. Hong Kong is not included in the tariffs evidently. They are probably even changing the country of origin to hong kong.

That reminds me of the reaction to the Russian sanctions a while back. Suddenly there were fish and other sea related products coming from countries that don't even have a coastline. 

[schmitt trigger]

Turkish Vodka?

[Gribo]

New tariff on Uranium. My reactor is slipping away, damnit. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/07/us-considers-tariffs-on-uranium-imports/

[Bud]

That reminds me of the reaction to the Russian sanctions a while back. Suddenly there were fish and other sea related products coming from countries that don't even have a coastline. 

Not sure in what direction you mean. I heard that story in relation to the countersanctions imposed by Russia, i.e. Russia was watching fish products and other food do not sneak through her borders coming in from non-sanctioned countries.

[Mr. Scram]

New tariff on Uranium. My reactor is slipping away, damnit. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/07/us-considers-tariffs-on-uranium-imports/

I think more expensive power for US citizens is definitely going to help them.

[innkeeper]

why are we selling 20% of our uranium production to Russia and we only produce 5% of our needs domestically.. 

[innkeeper]

The Shanghai Composite has fallen some 17 percent this year and was more than 23 percent below its 52-week high at the market close on Friday.

us Nasdaq: +8.8%

US Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% in Q2 2018 (compare that to 1.2% in Q2 2016)

The data points to a modest slowdown in the Chinese economy...

Remember, the US is holding all the chips when it comes to China ... hope this drives some of this home to those that still doubt the validity the directions being taken.

[Bud]

So it seems the Asian Tiger is not that great (which I always suspected). Everyone has been screaming China China the worlds leader economy. Not so much eh... The day the West will stop feeding job orders to China will be the day China will fall apart.

[MT]

Yes, but China has to fight, even losing is inevitable. Losing the trade war means opening door to western economy, then western culture, then the fallen of communist dictatorship follows. For this reason, China will do anything to resist, even if it means hot war, even nuclear war, at the very end.

As mentioned many times they are not communists nor socialists its just an pretext they are Checkists oligarchs.
XI is about money just as Putain, Dumpf, Makkaroni,Bleir etc.

Look Modi and Xi happy!

[MT]

If he loses his power, he will not be happy anymore. He has already done too many horrible anti humanity things, and he knows exactly he has no way out if his political power gets turned over. He will be hang if he loses power.
That's why he will do whatever to stay in power. Trump has grossly underestimated the desire of surviving from a dictator.

Have any Chinese emperor done humane things through past 5000 years? Dumpf tries to be a dictator.
Xi is an Confucianist not Maoist. Mao pretended he was a communist but was isolationist.Deng is the dude
behind China economical boom. He knew and said: with money not guns we can win the war against USA imperialists!

Tarriff WAR!

[innkeeper]

Remember, the US is holding all the chips when it comes to China ... hope this drives some of this home to those that still doubt the validity the directions being taken.

Yes, but China has to fight, even losing is inevitable. Losing the trade war means opening door to western economy, then western culture, then the fallen of communist dictatorship follows.
For this reason, China will do anything to resist, even if it means hot war, even nuclear war, at the very end.

Great propaganda for inside China, but we all know it means nothing of the kind.
Though it does make me wonder why behaving fairly on the world stage is now considered "loosing"

[innkeeper]

As for me, I certainly don't fault China for doing what is in their best interest.

the USA could learn a lot from China in this regard.

[Mr. Scram]

So it seems the Asian Tiger is not that great (which I always suspected). Everyone has been screaming China China the worlds leader economy. Not so much eh... The day the West will stop feeding job orders to China will be the day China will fall apart.

We don't have an industry to back ballsy talk like that up. Almost all our stuff comes from China. Stuff we need to run our society. Sometimes it's stuff we don't want to produce here because it's nasty to make.

We simply can't afford to stop ordering.

[innkeeper]

most of the large commodities China buys from the us, like natural gas and soybeans in example,
China buys at the cheapest rate they can. the USA happens to be the cheapest supplier and the largest exporter and China imports 70% of the world's soybean exports.

adding terrif's  will make those goods less attractive to buy from the USA and China will likely buy up other sources in the word before buying from the USA and incurring their own tariffs.
which, by the way, is an artificial tariff considering the Chinese government sponsors many of the companies.  china has a tariff re-emergent program too for all tariffs up to 18% I believe.  there already increasing that too see this article as an example https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-09/china-is-said-to-reimburse-tariffs-for-state-reserve-soybeans

even if China goes elsewhere for the goods,  all this means for the USA is markets were soybeans and natural gas sells higher will open up to them as supplies become unavailable to them because China is buying up the supply.

in short, the retaliatory tariffs China puts on will have no impact other than increasing the number of goods the USA will tariff.  it's an interesting bluff. but it is backfiring on them.

[Mr. Scram]

most of the large commodities China buys from the us, like natural gas and soybeans in example,
China buys at the cheapest rate they can. the USA happens to be the cheapest supplier and the largest exporter and China imports 70% of the world's soybean exports.

adding terrif's  will make those goods less attractive to buy from the USA and China will likely buy up other sources in the word before buying from the USA and incurring their own tariffs.
which, by the way, is an artificial tariff considering the Chinese government sponsors many of the companies.  china has a tariff re-emergent program too for all tariffs up to 18% I believe.  there already increasing that too see this article as an example https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-09/china-is-said-to-reimburse-tariffs-for-state-reserve-soybeans

even if China goes elsewhere for the goods,  all this means for the USA is markets were soybeans and natural gas sells higher will open up to them as supplies become unavailable to them because China is buying up the supply.

in short, the retaliatory tariffs China puts on will have no impact other than increasing the number of goods the USA will tariff.  it's an interesting bluff. but it is backfiring on them.

"Them" denoting both countries is correct.

[innkeeper]

them being China.

As I posted earlier, the positive impacts are already being felt in the USA and negative impacts are being felt in China.
i invite you to go back and read that post.

jobs that were supposedly never coming back, according to the prior administration are coming back.  its about time the USA played Chinas game don't you think?

[donotdespisethesnake]

I see Trump didn't put a tariff on Kool-Aid. 

[innkeeper]

just goes to show... there is no competition for kool-aid 

[cdev]

Rest assured, (IMHO) 'trade wars' are "shambolic".  Intended as a diversion more than anything else.

 "Yes, we care about your jobs".  When they really don't. But the oligarchs can't say that.

[Eka]

I see Trump didn't put a tariff on Kool-Aid. 

That's because he knows all his supporters drink the Kool-Aid.

[Mr. Scram]

them being China.

As I posted earlier, the positive impacts are already being felt in the USA and negative impacts are being felt in China.
i invite you to go back and read that post.

jobs that were supposedly never coming back, according to the prior administration are coming back.  its about time the USA played Chinas game don't you think?

The problem is that protection schemes and tarriffs have historicallly rarely, if ever worked. It's remarkable how some people think that taxing US citizens more will increase their living standard or purchasing power.

Besides, the whole thing is based on a false premise. Trading surplusses or deficites don't actually mean what they're made into in this discussion. It's not a metric that means good or bad. That either means Trump doesn't understand the basics of economics, or that he's banking on the constituents not understanding economics enough to call this bluff. Economists don't tend to agree with the notion either. '“The trade deficit is a terrible metric for judging economic policy,” said Lawrence H. Summers, a Harvard economist'. See the link below.

When you're referring to any earlier posts, please post a link. The same goes for posting sources when making claims.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/05/us/politics/trade-deficit-tariffs-economists-trump.html

[helius]

Turkey is already blaming its currency crisis on Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. As the Turkish Lira plummets, overseas investors flee to US bonds for stability, which strengthens the dollar. A strong dollar means greater purchasing power for US residents.

[Moshly]

It's started

Element Electronics, a consumer electronics company in South Carolina, says it will be closing its plant in Winnsboro due to tariffs imposed by President Trump.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/400761-south-carolina-manufacturer-says-its-closing-plant-over-trump-tariffs

[Mr. Scram]

Turkey is already blaming its currency crisis on Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. As the Turkish Lira plummets, overseas investors flee to US bonds for stability, which strengthens the dollar. A strong dollar means greater purchasing power for US residents.

I'm not sure that the words of an ever more absolute ruler who's steadily driving his own country into the ditch should be taken to have much value. Of course he's not going to say it's his own actions that are causing the Lira to plummet.

[Bassman59]

Turkey is already blaming its currency crisis on Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. As the Turkish Lira plummets, overseas investors flee to US bonds for stability, which strengthens the dollar. A strong dollar means greater purchasing power for US residents.

How many investors have been putting money into Turkey in the last, oh, decade? My guess: not enough to make any difference in the strength of the dollar.

[shteii01]

We don't have an industry to back ballsy talk like that up. Almost all our stuff comes from China. Stuff we need to run our society. Sometimes it's stuff we don't want to produce here because it's nasty to make.

We simply can't afford to stop ordering.

You are completely misunderstanding the situation.

Nobody is stopping trade.  We, the US of A, will continue to trade with China.  They, China, will continue to trade with US of A.  What is being attempted is to adjust the balance of the trade.  The trade itself will not stop and is not being stopped.  The trade will continue.  What is being desired is that:
1.  China buys more from us.
2.  China sells less to us.

In a few years a new trade balance will develop.

Remember.  Today's trade balance did not develop this year.  It took 30 years for us to arrive at the current trade balance between US of A and China.  This trade balance thing is not set in stone.  Politics, economics, technologies, they all have effect on trade. 

[helius]

How many investors have been putting money into Turkey in the last, oh, decade? My guess: not enough to make any difference in the strength of the dollar.

There are several countries that face similar headwinds, like Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Egypt, and Vietnam, and pressure has been increasing on all of them as the US bond yields go up. These countries are very exposed to changes in US monetary policy because they have large dollar-denominated debts.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-crisis-puts-spotlight-on-emerging-markets-foreign-currency-debt-1534248002

[DerekG]

With our production facility being based in Australia, we are starting to shift some of our purchasing of components from Digikey (Thief River Falls USA) to Mouser (Hong Kong) as www.octopart.com are now showing up better pricing for the Hong Kong based supplier.

Digikey have sent us a letter indicating they are keeping abreast of the situation, however it looks like the new USA import tariffs are beginning to take effect.

[ProBang2]

[...] overseas investors flee to US bonds for stability, which strengthens the dollar. A strong dollar means greater purchasing power for US residents.

[...] What is being desired is that:
1.  China buys more from us.
2.  China sells less to us.

Think logically...

The strong dollar increases the price of exported american goods and decreases the price of imported foreign goods.
What is been achieved is that:
1. USA buying more.
2. USA selling less.

Purchase power and trade with countries involving tariffs (...China...):

Tariffs are a tool to protect the own manufacturers. How it works? Simple...
To make the own products competitive, the cheaper foreign goods are artificially made more expensive.
So, customers in the USA should get used to the pricing calculation for an iPhone, laptop, TV etc. that is built in the own country. The former cheaper (imported) device reaches after the tariff the same level. Is the grown purchasing power equalizing that?
And... Yes! You got it right! Tariffs are making the goods more expensive for people in the importing country!

At least: The incoming money from the tariffs should be enough to built a, for sure urgently needed space force... 

BTW: Somehow strange... Imagine the following cases.
1. Trump press-conference message on twitter: "My fellow americans. You have to pay a 30% tax on stuff from China. How great is that!"
On the sudden he would be called a motherf..king bastard.
2. Trump press-conference message on twitter: "My fellow americans. I have raised a 30% tariff on stuff from China. How great is that!"
On the sudden he is called a patriotic hero.
Now tell me, please: What is the precise difference for the american customer or the manufacturer in need of parts from China???
What is the exact advantage of the farmer in the US, if he is not able to sell his goods because
a. they are to expensive in other countries (Yeah, the strong dollar).
b. there is an ongoing trade/tariff war. 

 

[helius]

Tariffs were the original source of government income, long before there was an income tax. They are desirable from an economic perspective because they apply to consumption rather than value creation. The problem is that, for political reasons, they don't get applied to finished manufactured goods, which hurts domestic manufacturers.

The "space force" is simply a bureaucratic stunt to take certain programs away from the air force.
Much more important are the modernization of defense networks such as the JEDI project, which will add autonomous weaponized drones to the Pentagon's 4C systems.

[shteii01]

[...] overseas investors flee to US bonds for stability, which strengthens the dollar. A strong dollar means greater purchasing power for US residents.

[...] What is being desired is that:
1.  China buys more from us.
2.  China sells less to us.

Think logically...

The strong dollar increases the price of exported american goods and decreases the price of imported foreign goods.
What is been achieved is that:
1. USA buying more.
2. USA selling less.

Purchase power and trade with countries involving tariffs (...China...):

Tariffs are a tool to protect the own manufacturers. How it works? Simple...
To make the own products competitive, the cheaper foreign goods are artificially made more expensive.
So, customers in the USA should get used to the pricing calculation for an iPhone, laptop, TV etc. that is built in the own country. The former cheaper (imported) device reaches after the tariff the same level. Is the grown purchasing power equalizing that?
And... Yes! You got it right! Tariffs are making the goods more expensive for people in the importing country!

At least: The incoming money from the tariffs should be enough to built a, for sure urgently needed space force... 

BTW: Somehow strange... Imagine the following cases.
1. Trump press-conference message on twitter: "My fellow americans. You have to pay a 30% tax on stuff from China. How great is that!"
On the sudden he would be called a motherf..king bastard.
2. Trump press-conference message on twitter: "My fellow americans. I have raised a 30% tariff on stuff from China. How great is that!"
On the sudden he is called a patriotic hero.
Now tell me, please: What is the precise difference for the american customer or the manufacturer in need of parts from China???
What is the exact advantage of the farmer in the US, if he is not able to sell his goods because
a. they are to expensive in other countries (Yeah, the strong dollar).
b. there is an ongoing trade/tariff war. 

 

Strangely... I don't see you complaining about Chinese tariffs. 
I think I will be Ok buying South Korean and Taiwanese goods.

As far as US farmers... In case you don't know, China is desperate for food.  The farmers will sell their produce because Chinese government does not have a choice.  If Chinese government fails to provide food to its people, there will be another revolution in China.

[ProBang2]

[...] The problem is that, for political reasons, they don't get applied to finished manufactured goods, which hurts domestic manufacturers.

I´m somehow much more confused now...
Making foreign parts for the own manufacturers more expensive but import final products without tariffs can make american factories more competitive? Hurting them protects them?   
Sorry, I´m out. My brain can´t decide right now if it will twisting, twirling or cooking...   

[...] modernization of defense networks such as the JEDI project, which will add autonomous weaponized drones to the Pentagon's 4C systems.

Nice. Sounds like: They will built SKYNET version 0.7...   

[ProBang2]

Strangely... I don't see you complaining about Chinese tariffs. 
I think I will be Ok buying South Korean and Taiwanese goods.

As far as US farmers... In case you don't know, China is desperate for food.  The farmers will sell their produce because Chinese government does not have a choice.  If Chinese government fails to provide food to its people, there will be another revolution in China.

Not at all strangely...

First of all (and that is a very big "first"): This nonsense was not started by the chinese. They are only reacting.
Second: Where you buy your stuff does not matter in any way. More important: Have Taiwan and South Korea enough capability to complete replace the high count of parts from China? Probably not.

And as far as US farmers... In case you don´t know: It is, right now, a 12-Billion-U$D-Bailout-for-US-farmers necessary. (Because of the tradewar!)
 
And about revolutions in other countries.... we know, the government of the USA is well experienced.
Who can not remember 9/11?
The 9/11 1973? Project FUBELT?
Or the really (really!) very successful Operation Ajax in 1953?

But this time, there would be two differencies:
1.No destroying of a democracy for economical interests.
2.China has nuclear weapons.

[shteii01]

Strangely... I don't see you complaining about Chinese tariffs. 
I think I will be Ok buying South Korean and Taiwanese goods.

As far as US farmers... In case you don't know, China is desperate for food.  The farmers will sell their produce because Chinese government does not have a choice.  If Chinese government fails to provide food to its people, there will be another revolution in China.

Not at all strangely...

First of all (and that is a very big "first"): This nonsense was not started by the chinese. They are only reacting.
Second: Where you buy your stuff does not matter in any way. More important: Have Taiwan and South Korea enough capability to complete replace the high count of parts from China? Probably not.

You misunderstood me. 
I did not mean the new retaliatory Chinese tariffs.
I meant the old Chinese tariffs.

[Mr. Scram]

You are completely misunderstanding the situation.

Nobody is stopping trade.  We, the US of A, will continue to trade with China.  They, China, will continue to trade with US of A.  What is being attempted is to adjust the balance of the trade.  The trade itself will not stop and is not being stopped.  The trade will continue.  What is being desired is that:
1.  China buys more from us.
2.  China sells less to us.

In a few years a new trade balance will develop.

Remember.  Today's trade balance did not develop this year.  It took 30 years for us to arrive at the current trade balance between US of A and China.  This trade balance thing is not set in stone.  Politics, economics, technologies, they all have effect on trade.

I don't think you understood my post correctly. I merely reacted to Bud saying that we need to stop sending work orders to China. My response was in no way a generic response about the tariffs.

Also , this balance people keep talking about doesn't mean what people seem to think it means. Some people insist on a trade deficit being a negative thing, while most economists at large seem to disagree.

[innkeeper]

Also , this balance people keep talking about doesn't mean what people seem to think it means. Some people insist on a trade deficit being a negative thing, while most economists at large seem to disagree.

must be fun living in their household, where they spend more then they take in.
 ... wonder how long that will last.

try explaining that to your spouse ... "oh no honey it's a good thing we spend more then we take in...
yea we can do this forever."

 

whats our national debt now...$21.4 trillion

economists    like a weatherman, you can be wrong and still have a job.

[Mr. Scram]

must be fun living in their household, where they spend more then they take in.
 ... wonder how long that will last.

try explaining that to your spouse ... "oh no honey it's a good thing we spend more then we take in...
yea we can do this forever."

 

whats our national debt now...$21.4 trillion

economists    like a weatherman, you can be wrong and still have a job.

Thanks for illustrating my point, because that's exactly what's not the case and how many people simplify it for themselves. There is so much more going on than just the trade with China that's it's preposterous to compare it to a regular household. If only because there's money coming in and going out in thousands more different ways, or because countries do create both value and money on a daily basis rendering a simple in versus out comparison futile.

Let's not go down the "economists don't know what they're doing" route as it would force us to compare their insights to Trump's and his track record in regards to investments. Also understand that politicians decided about and caused the US debt, not economists.

[CatalinaWOW]

Actually weathermen and economists aren't a bad comparison.  Both deal with large, messy, not fully understood systems.  Both have problems measuring initial coditions for their models and both are limited to far less data than they would like and far more than they can process.  And both do pretty well on small short range predictions and broad trends.  Both professions have public mouthpieces who are generally far from the best their field has to offer. 

[cdev]

More and more of what some call policy space is off the table and off limits to politicians.

Think of a one-way ratchet type device that removes it permanently from public control. This is done to give investors certainty that previously they would have had to buy costly commercial political risk insurance to get.

Non-economic things will likely always be under democratic control and changeable by voting.

"Otherwise the people would just vote to fix things they didn't like".

Of course they have to figure out a way to make this lack of control over issues non-obvious.