Finally fewer and fewer people actually own cars anyway
I did not notice that.... Each house in my neighbourhood has cars parked on the driveways, some have 2 and some have 3.
Note that I said
own, not "have".
Finally fewer and fewer people actually own cars anyway, financing has moved towards contract hire deals where you never own the vehicle
Better put some numbers on this. I think this shift is caused by people who would previously 'buy' a car and borrow the money from the car dealer. Since the credit-crunch rules for loans have become much stricter so it is likely car dealers don't want the hassle of handling credit applications. A private lease construction is subject to much less rules.
OK, fair call I don't have numbers - BUT I've just bought a car (not on finance) and the contract hire deals are the ones front and centre on the manufacturers websites and are, on the face of it, cheaper per month so which option are most people going to go for?
You never own the vehicle on these deals, just rent it.
I like owning a car because it's a toy I can tinker with, fix it up, customize it to my liking, I want to own things, I don't rent anything.
Yes, sure, I agree on both the "tinkering" and "dislike rental/credit" front - in fact I suspect this whole forum is populated with people who have a similar opinion.
Agreed. Our cars spend probably 97.5% of the time idle (avg 6K miles per year on one and 4K mi/yr on the other). One is a 2005 Honda bought in 2012. For 40K miles, we’ve put about $4K in gas, $300 in oil changes, $1200 in outsourced repairs, $500 in tires, $400 in parts for DIY repairs, paid $4K in insurance, paid a few hundred for registrations and inspections, and it’s probably worth $4K less than we paid. 40K miles around $15K in expenses. $0.37/mi all in.
For the UK double the gas price I suspect, average is about £5.80 (=$7.45) per (imperial) gallon, say 35mpg is £0.165/mi (=$0.27) just in fuel.
I drive (well, drove until three days ago) an '06 Toyota Celica - say 28-30mpg so my fuel only cost is £0.20/mi (=$0.26), annual mileage 6-8k; servicing, insurance, road tax, tyres, depreciation - realistically £1400 ($1800) pa, lets say £0.20 or $0.26/mi - so my total is a bit more than $0.50/mi - it's not a million miles from your estimate, the difference in fuel will be a lot of it - but I think lends some weight to my comment that $0.28 seems pretty cheap. For reference the UK tax allowance for business car miles is £0.45/mi - I suspect the revenue has a pretty fair idea of realistic running costs.
Like you I tend not to buy new cars so my depreciation is low - if you do buy new the costs can be quite high, looking a a Citroën C1 - pretty small city car, new OTR price £13560 is £169/mo (=£2028 or $2616 a year) before you have put fuel in, paid road tax or insured it.
No way are we going to use Uber every time we need to go somewhere, even if it was only $0.40/mi, let alone a significant multiple of that!
Maybe not - today at any rate, but I'm not talking about today.
There are other things in play as well as the financing, one is that from 2022 all cars sold in the EU (and the UK) will have to have mandatory safety features such as GPS based speed limiters, lane assist etc - that goes some way to the car doing the driving. Chances are more automation will be added so you will get to the situation (say 2035 ish) where it will not be a big step to 100% automation, at which point it will probably be illegal to tinker with your car in any way at all (well, you might still be allowed fluffy dice).
So, by 2040-2045 (I did say 25 years) you might well have a fleet of autonomous vehicles which are total black boxes and which all drive pretty much the same - why bother "owning" one just for your personal use?
That turned out to be a long post - perhaps a separate "future of private motoring" thread?