Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) info - interesting stuff!

[nctnico]

Having driven mostly manual cars I'd say having an automatic gearbox would be better. In the end shifting gears manually is just a tedious job.

What you likely mean is that driver's training in the US should be taken more seriously and the bar to pass the theoretical and practical exams should be set higher so the quality of driving skills improves.

No, I mean exactly what I said, learning to shift a manual gearbox should be required. Almost all cars here are automatic, I hate them, absolutely can't stand the feel, I like shifting gears, it feels like *driving*, with an automatic you just kind of aim. I hate that mushy, slushy disconnected feel and the car trying to guess what I want.

Sorry but I still don't see how others besides you would benefit from needing to learn how to drive a manual car. It is like saying everyone should love apple pie for no good reason.

[tom66]

It's a useful skill if you need to drive a van or borrow someone's car, which might happen to be manual, but in this day and age automatics shift just as well if not better than any manual car.  I definitely prefer driving auto.  But if I had a 20yr old car I doubt I'd like it so much.  I still remember my mother's Opel/Vauxhall Astra with its 3-speed automatic, bloody awful thing.

[james_s]

I think you just nailed the use case for gasoline:   Low miles driven.   

The overall costs are what matter.   E.g. I recently bought an older used "primitive" gasoline car for $5000...  it is in beautiful shape, no rust, low miles, comfortable, quiet.   Sure, it drinks copious quantities of gasoline costing $5 per gallon...   but on the other hand, there are no monthly car payments,  and very little depreciation. 

Electric cars just haven't been around long enough (in large enough quantities) to be able to do something similar with one of those...   but the day will come, of course.

Electric cars could be found cheaply for a while too, my dad sold a Nissan Leaf for $5,000 when he got his Tesla Y, he offered it to me for free but at the time my household had three cars with two people and I was already hardly driving anywhere. You have a point though in that one is unlikely to find something with a >100 mile range in that price class so if they need range then gas powered is probably the way to go. On the other hand there are people like a friend of mine who commutes ~60 miles each way 5 days a week, she bought a Tesla and it costs peanuts to drive and with the standard 240V charging cord she charges it in the driveway. At today's gas prices down there in California it would cost a fortune to drive even a hybrid. They are not THAT much better on fuel than a conventional ICE, on the highway they are nearly the same, where they excel is stop & go city traffic.

I love my Volvo turbo wagon, it's the perfect blend of sports car, pickup truck and minivan, more cargo space than most midsized SUVs while having nearly as much ground clearance and still being low enough that I can load large items on a clamp on roof rack without needing a stool. There is simply nothing on the market that can replace it in all applications so I stick with it. If it were reasonably feasible to swap in a Tesla powertrain I would be all over that though.

[james_s]

Sorry but I still don't see how others besides you would benefit from needing to learn how to drive a manual car. It is like saying everyone should love apple pie for no good reason.

Because if they do it then they have had exposure to it, and then more people would choose it and there would be more manual cars available. It's a good skill to have, it's not like it's hard to do, if my technologically inept elderly mother can drive a manual with ease then so can anyone else. It's not saying everyone should love apple pie, it's saying everyone should try apple pie, if they don't love it they can eat something else. Likewise in school we all have to learn some things that we might not ever use again, because the point of school is to get a well rounded education and get a taste of everything. They eliminated shop class from most schools years ago and now they wonder why there is a shortage of tradespeople.

People who drive manual transmissions are more skilled, more aware, more engaged and attentive drivers. With a manual you cannot mistake the gas for the brake and plow through the wall of a building as happens too often. When you are busy driving with both hands you are forced to pay attention and put down the damn smartphone and focus on driving. I believe that when one is driving a car, they should be 100% focused on *driving* the car. All these gadgets that are supposed to make driving safer mostly just enable people to focus on anything but controlling the several thousand pound machine they are rolling around in.

[RJSV]

    What's the trend, then, starting of at '25 years payback', today?
   I mean, will that 'COME DOWN',... To what ..
   '$ 18 years, to payback...'.  In, say 2033, ?

This is Circus Grifter Math.  How about replace words like 'soon to improve' with, uh, numbers...(sorry), ...uh, numbers, (sorry, sorry).
   What exotic metal shortages forecast ? OK then, let's all Tesla-up!  I'm getting mine used, I hear..
At bargain price, just wait...hopefully not 25 years.

   I only play a fool, in a couple of movies.

[SilverSolder]

[...]
 They eliminated shop class from most schools years ago and now they wonder why there is a shortage of tradespeople.
[...]

Despite going in the academic direction, I took all the shop classes back in high school.  That's where I met some of the best teachers and made some of my best friends.  -  dropping all the manual skills was/is a huge mistake, there is only so much you can learn from Youtube! 

[SilverSolder]

    What's the trend, then, starting of at '25 years payback', today?
   I mean, will that 'COME DOWN',... To what ..
   '$ 18 years, to payback...'.  In, say 2033, ?

This is Circus Grifter Math.  How about replace words like 'soon to improve' with, uh, numbers...(sorry), ...uh, numbers, (sorry, sorry).
   What exotic metal shortages forecast ? OK then, let's all Tesla-up!  I'm getting mine used, I hear..
At bargain price, just wait...hopefully not 25 years.

   I only play a fool, in a couple of movies.

The first factor is that the investment vehicles (cars!) are designed for a life of 100,000 miles or 10 years, whichever comes first.  That's built into the specification of every component on the vehicle (except wear parts like brake linings, 12V battery, etc.) .   Pretty much all factory and extended warranties stop at that point, if not before.  That's the realm of "new" or "newish" cars, I hope we can agree.

Once a car has survived beyond its design life,  the economics favor reliable and robust designs that don't rust, with good parts availability both from the manufacturer and secondary sources.  This kind of car can be very economical to own, as in less than $50 per month depreciation  (e.g. buy a car for $5000 and keep it for 10 years).

Another economical way to go is to buy a newish car and keep it for even longer...  e.g. buy a car for $12,000 and keep it for 15 or 20 years!

Here is where electric cars may not work so well, if they are going to be needing expensive batteries every so often.  Still unknown!

[tom66]

I think there will end up being a pretty healthy battery rebuild and replacement market as EVs become more commonplace.  What will be important is for battery cells and modules to be available from manufacturers for a reasonable price.

[nctnico]

I think there will end up being a pretty healthy battery rebuild and replacement market as EVs become more commonplace.  What will be important is for battery cells and modules to be available from manufacturers for a reasonable price.

My advice when buying an electric car (whether it is hybrid, battery only or fuel cell) is to research if the battery is made up of modules which can be changed individually. That way a repair of a battery is not that expensive to begin with and you may not need the dealer to do this job. At this moment I'm seeing prices in the 800 euro ballpark for a refurbished battery pack for common Toyota hybrids.

[tom66]

Also compatibility between vehicles.

People have figured out you can put the 40kWh battery from a newer Leaf into an older 24kWh one and it more or less works - the only bug is the range-o-meter can't show all the digits!

[wraper]

I think there will end up being a pretty healthy battery rebuild and replacement market as EVs become more commonplace.  What will be important is for battery cells and modules to be available from manufacturers for a reasonable price.

My advice when buying an electric car (whether it is hybrid, battery only or fuel cell) is to research if the battery is made up of modules which can be changed individually. That way a repair of a battery is not that expensive to begin with and you may not need the dealer to do this job. At this moment I'm seeing prices in the 800 euro ballpark for a refurbished battery pack for common Toyota hybrids.

And if you find one, it's basically guaranteed to be garbage due to lack of thermal management. So you get a battery which can be serviced but do not last long.

[nctnico]

I think there will end up being a pretty healthy battery rebuild and replacement market as EVs become more commonplace.  What will be important is for battery cells and modules to be available from manufacturers for a reasonable price.

My advice when buying an electric car (whether it is hybrid, battery only or fuel cell) is to research if the battery is made up of modules which can be changed individually. That way a repair of a battery is not that expensive to begin with and you may not need the dealer to do this job. At this moment I'm seeing prices in the 800 euro ballpark for a refurbished battery pack for common Toyota hybrids.

And if you find one, it's basically guaranteed to be garbage due to lack of thermal management. So you get a battery which can be serviced but do not last long.

No, not at all. Look at Volkswagen's ID.3 battery for a modern day example. It is modular with water cooling. This battery pack has been designed to be serviceable at a module level to keep repair costs low.

[wraper]

I think there will end up being a pretty healthy battery rebuild and replacement market as EVs become more commonplace.  What will be important is for battery cells and modules to be available from manufacturers for a reasonable price.

My advice when buying an electric car (whether it is hybrid, battery only or fuel cell) is to research if the battery is made up of modules which can be changed individually. That way a repair of a battery is not that expensive to begin with and you may not need the dealer to do this job. At this moment I'm seeing prices in the 800 euro ballpark for a refurbished battery pack for common Toyota hybrids.

And if you find one, it's basically guaranteed to be garbage due to lack of thermal management. So you get a battery which can be serviced but do not last long.

No, not at all. Look at Volkswagen's ID.3 battery for a modern day example. It is modular with water cooling. This battery pack has been designed to be serviceable at a module level to keep repair costs low.

Yes it consists of modules. But where did you get an idea it's serviceable?

[nctnico]

Check Munro's ID.3 battery teardown. And you can buy the battery modules from companies that refurbish them.

[wraper]

Check Munro's ID.3 battery teardown. And you can buy the battery modules from companies that refurbish them.

Yes you should be able to buy modules salvaged from scrap batteries. But it does not mean it will work. IMHO as minimum it will require firmware hacking, depending on how they are made, it's likely they cannot be reprogrammed. Also what about balancing? I'm not so sure that another module with different wear will work good enough. In theory you can replace them, in practice it's a big question if and when it will become possible.

[RJSV]

   I ran some numbers, for a 3-door Dodge Colt 1991 model:
   A moderate distance commute, figured 34 miles each way to work.  Car was purchased at $6500 used, 1993 dollars, and lasted 16 years.  However, that's a single person commute car, not a huge cargo, and comfortable for 2 adults. 
   I brought that forward, today's gas at $ 8 per gallon, San Jose. CA. To get a more modern estimate.
Comes close to $25 per day, gas, or $3900 per year.
Replace that with a 'used Volt' hybrid, at $25 k.
   I'm not clear, how to bring the 1993 purchase price up to today, ...perhaps $10,000...I don't know.
But that gets to a difference of $15 k.
So using those numbers, I would pay extra $15 k, to save $4000 per year, very roughly.  Something like 4 years, might start to break even, assuming that I'm still vigorously working / traveling.
Ah, but free electricity.  No grid capacity problems. No special metals, to mine...
etc etc
   I think people would buy Tesla to get modern features like GPS and in-car media.  That part is another 30k, or more than double the 'Volt' hybrid scenario.
   I would have to ramp-up my daily use, in a more typically busy job.  What percentage, of world-wide potential users, can start plugging in (no pun), and get those same 'San Jose' region numbers?
   A lot seems to depend on doing MORE driving, to gain some efficiency in numbers.
   I do see a lot of 'Rebate' offers, from various govt. agencies, that skews the numbers.

[tom66]

I think a lot of people that would have bought a BMW or a Mercedes bought a Tesla instead - so that really skews the numbers - $60k MSRP car electric vs petrol.  For many the electric is a no brainer, if you are going to spend that money.  Hence the Germans now are releasing cars in that range to compete with the Model S and top spec Model 3.

For average people there are things like the ID.3 (which is not coming to USA) which is priced like a Golf, and the Leaf, and Renault Zoe (I don't think Renault sell in the US either) or myriad stupidly big electric SUVs.

Electric cars are (generally) good but it does annoy me that so many are SUVs.  We need less SUVs, not more... yes, better that they're electric, but even better if they are small efficient hatchbacks.  But for that to change you'd need to tax on weight/volume, or have just general social change over the concept of driving 2.5 tonnes around to go to Wal-Mart just because once in a while you also go to Home Depot and then still fail to fit everything in without having it dangerously hanging out of a window.

[SilverSolder]

   I ran some numbers, for a 3-door Dodge Colt 1991 model:
   A moderate distance commute, figured 34 miles each way to work.  Car was purchased at $6500 used, 1993 dollars, and lasted 16 years.  However, that's a single person commute car, not a huge cargo, and comfortable for 2 adults. 
   I brought that forward, today's gas at $ 8 per gallon, San Jose. CA. To get a more modern estimate.
Comes close to $25 per day, gas, or $3900 per year.
Replace that with a 'used Volt' hybrid, at $25 k.
   I'm not clear, how to bring the 1993 purchase price up to today, ...perhaps $10,000...I don't know.
But that gets to a difference of $15 k.
So using those numbers, I would pay extra $15 k, to save $4000 per year, very roughly.  Something like 4 years, might start to break even, assuming that I'm still vigorously working / traveling.
Ah, but free electricity.  No grid capacity problems. No special metals, to mine...
etc etc
   I think people would buy Tesla to get modern features like GPS and in-car media.  That part is another 30k, or more than double the 'Volt' hybrid scenario.
   I would have to ramp-up my daily use, in a more typically busy job.  What percentage, of world-wide potential users, can start plugging in (no pun), and get those same 'San Jose' region numbers?
   A lot seems to depend on doing MORE driving, to gain some efficiency in numbers.
   I do see a lot of 'Rebate' offers, from various govt. agencies, that skews the numbers.

The numbers for electric look best if you drive a lot - your example is 16K miles per year, assuming 48 working weeks (4 weeks vacation with no driving).

Consider the case if you drive the national average 12K per year, now the break-even is maybe 5-6 years.

Consider the case if you drive half of that,  or if you own more than one vehicle so neither one gets driven far...   gasoline is still competitive.

[nctnico]

It also greatly depends on where you can charge a BEV. If you have to rely on public charging, then an efficient hybrid is cheaper and more convenient. The current crop of BEVs are nice as a small action radius roundabouts.

[RJSV]

WOW, thanks SilverSolder, that example I had given would now actually extend, (at least pre-covid), which means 'Silicon Valley's phenomina of pulling in workers from afar.  My case, 34 miles in to San Jose to work, is 1980's.  Now, same job, almost same roads (choked), and we're talking TRACY, CA. to San Jose, for a coveted Apple job.  I'd be surprised, if that didn't double my miles per year! (To 32,000).
   And VACATION estimate, Whaaaaa, woewoe wait; no 4 weeks, more like 2 1/2 weeks per year.
There are lots of (smart) folks stuck on roads, at 5:15 am start of day.
   But, aren't there other 'mecca' type geography, where a job-rich area, maybe Minnesota I don't know, that have those mega-commute ?  Somebody else going to respond here, saying:
"...You should see I-5555 at 5 am in Omaha...bloody hell..."
   Yeah, I liked, your concept, of folks having the bigger family vehicle, used a lot less during the week. BUT, there could be regulations / restrictions looming, for anything not 'windmill' related. Not that I dislike clean approaches to power generation.
Having a windmill 'thrown' at you can be messy.
   But, serious, I'm not thinking that commuting long, Tracy to Cupertino (San Jose), is statistically a large thing, world-wide.(?) Maybe 2 % ?
Thanks.

[SilverSolder]

WOW, thanks SilverSolder, that example I had given would now actually extend, (at least pre-covid), which means 'Silicon Valley's phenomina of pulling in workers from afar.  My case, 34 miles in to San Jose to work, is 1980's.  Now, same job, almost same roads (choked), and we're talking TRACY, CA. to San Jose, for a coveted Apple job.  I'd be surprised, if that didn't double my miles per year! (To 32,000).
   And VACATION estimate, Whaaaaa, woewoe wait; no 4 weeks, more like 2 1/2 weeks per year.
There are lots of (smart) folks stuck on roads, at 5:15 am start of day.
   But, aren't there other 'mecca' type geography, where a job-rich area, maybe Minnesota I don't know, that have those mega-commute ?  Somebody else going to respond here, saying:
"...You should see I-5555 at 5 am in Omaha...bloody hell..."
   Yeah, I liked, your concept, of folks having the bigger family vehicle, used a lot less during the week. BUT, there could be regulations / restrictions looming, for anything not 'windmill' related. Not that I dislike clean approaches to power generation.
Having a windmill 'thrown' at you can be messy.
   But, serious, I'm not thinking that commuting long, Tracy to Cupertino (San Jose), is statistically a large thing, world-wide.(?) Maybe 2 % ?
Thanks.

Yeah, the average number of miles driven is something like 14,000 per year in the USA...   Everybody's needs are different, the numbers are individual for each person.  For example, if you commute 30 miles to the next town on open highways, you can get close to 40mpg in a standard gasoline powered Honda Civic...

On the other hand, if you are stuck in dense traffic for an hour and a half each way, a standard internal combustion engine is going to get extremely poor fuel economy...   whereas a hybrid (e.g. a Prius) can still get 40mpg in that scenario -  and a plug-in hybrid might be able to do most of the journey on pure electric, then falling back to 40mpg hybrid mode...

If you don't drive long distances then @nctnico's suggestion of an electric runabout is a good idea, and can be an overall pretty economical affair, e.g. a Nissan Leaf.

[CatalinaWOW]

The Nissan Leaf is quite practical.  Green mavens will point out that it meets the vast majority of America's requirements for distance on a charge.

But there must be something very wrong with the Leaf.  It has been on the market for 10 years and is still eligible for the US Federal Tax credit for manufacturers who have sold less than 700,000 vehicles in the US.  In the meantime Tesla, GM and Ford have already crossed that threshold with their much less practical vehicles.  And in GM and Ford's case a much later start.

[tom66]

I'm a big EV fan, but I wouldn't buy a Leaf.

There are a few reasons:

* Nissan build quality is just seemingly worse year after year.  They are becoming a bit like Peugeot did in the mid 2000's.  They need to seriously invest in making higher quality products for the price they charge.  I know friends with older Nissan vehicles (mid 2010 age) that are rusting and falling apart. 

* The battery longevity is really poor.  This is true for 24kWh, especially true for 30kWh and somewhat true for 40kWh models.  A lack of any cooling system, combined with a subpar chemistry means most cars will be down 30% of their capacity within 7 years.  That's just not acceptable, especially given the car has quite limited range and charging speed to begin with.  The 62kWh cars have been out for a relatively short time, and do at least have some cooling improvements, but prior history makes them a dubious buy for now.

* RapidGate and Nissan's response to it.  To protect their 40kWh batteries, Nissan massively limit the charge rate once you have done more than one charging session in a typical drive.  This is because the battery gets too hot to allow further fast charging, and there is no cooling system to remove that heat.  So a car that can only charge at 45kW, which is already not at all competitive, will only manage 30kW at the next stop.

* Price!  Not competitive at all.  A 62kWh Leaf - equivalent in many ways to the 58kWh ID.3 or somewhat to the 50kWh Peugeot e-208 (a little smaller size & battery)  is £35,000.  The ID.3 is £5,000 cheaper (was £7k before the car shortage nonsense) and the e-208 is almost £10,000 cheaper.  If you spec the Leaf up fully, it starts to get as expensive as a Polestar 2 or Model 3.  Insane pricing.

* It's still Chademo.  What are Nissan thinking? 

[SilverSolder]

A used Leaf for sub $5K may be an OK local runabout?

[nctnico]

* It's still Chademo.  What are Nissan thinking?

Isn't there something like a conversion cable? Recently I read a story about owners of an older BEV who nearly got stranded because all the public chargers got upgraded and are a now incompatibly with their vehicle. As a result they where not able to charge their BEV along the highway as they where used to. I have not investigated at all but I would be highly, highly surprised if this problem can't be solved by a simple conversion cable.