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Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) info - interesting stuff!
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RJSV:
   I ran some numbers, for a 3-door Dodge Colt 1991 model:
   A moderate distance commute, figured 34 miles each way to work.  Car was purchased at $6500 used, 1993 dollars, and lasted 16 years.  However, that's a single person commute car, not a huge cargo, and comfortable for 2 adults. 
   I brought that forward, today's gas at $ 8 per gallon, San Jose. CA. To get a more modern estimate.
Comes close to $25 per day, gas, or $3900 per year.
Replace that with a 'used Volt' hybrid, at $25 k.
   I'm not clear, how to bring the 1993 purchase price up to today, ...perhaps $10,000...I don't know.
But that gets to a difference of $15 k.
So using those numbers, I would pay extra $15 k, to save $4000 per year, very roughly.  Something like 4 years, might start to break even, assuming that I'm still vigorously working / traveling.
Ah, but free electricity.  No grid capacity problems. No special metals, to mine...
etc etc
   I think people would buy Tesla to get modern features like GPS and in-car media.  That part is another 30k, or more than double the 'Volt' hybrid scenario.
   I would have to ramp-up my daily use, in a more typically busy job.  What percentage, of world-wide potential users, can start plugging in (no pun), and get those same 'San Jose' region numbers?
   A lot seems to depend on doing MORE driving, to gain some efficiency in numbers.
   I do see a lot of 'Rebate' offers, from various govt. agencies, that skews the numbers.
tom66:
I think a lot of people that would have bought a BMW or a Mercedes bought a Tesla instead - so that really skews the numbers - $60k MSRP car electric vs petrol.  For many the electric is a no brainer, if you are going to spend that money.  Hence the Germans now are releasing cars in that range to compete with the Model S and top spec Model 3.

For average people there are things like the ID.3 (which is not coming to USA) which is priced like a Golf, and the Leaf, and Renault Zoe (I don't think Renault sell in the US either) or myriad stupidly big electric SUVs.

Electric cars are (generally) good but it does annoy me that so many are SUVs.  We need less SUVs, not more... yes, better that they're electric, but even better if they are small efficient hatchbacks.  But for that to change you'd need to tax on weight/volume, or have just general social change over the concept of driving 2.5 tonnes around to go to Wal-Mart just because once in a while you also go to Home Depot and then still fail to fit everything in without having it dangerously hanging out of a window.
SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: RJHayward on July 06, 2022, 04:48:12 pm ---   I ran some numbers, for a 3-door Dodge Colt 1991 model:
   A moderate distance commute, figured 34 miles each way to work.  Car was purchased at $6500 used, 1993 dollars, and lasted 16 years.  However, that's a single person commute car, not a huge cargo, and comfortable for 2 adults. 
   I brought that forward, today's gas at $ 8 per gallon, San Jose. CA. To get a more modern estimate.
Comes close to $25 per day, gas, or $3900 per year.
Replace that with a 'used Volt' hybrid, at $25 k.
   I'm not clear, how to bring the 1993 purchase price up to today, ...perhaps $10,000...I don't know.
But that gets to a difference of $15 k.
So using those numbers, I would pay extra $15 k, to save $4000 per year, very roughly.  Something like 4 years, might start to break even, assuming that I'm still vigorously working / traveling.
Ah, but free electricity.  No grid capacity problems. No special metals, to mine...
etc etc
   I think people would buy Tesla to get modern features like GPS and in-car media.  That part is another 30k, or more than double the 'Volt' hybrid scenario.
   I would have to ramp-up my daily use, in a more typically busy job.  What percentage, of world-wide potential users, can start plugging in (no pun), and get those same 'San Jose' region numbers?
   A lot seems to depend on doing MORE driving, to gain some efficiency in numbers.
   I do see a lot of 'Rebate' offers, from various govt. agencies, that skews the numbers.

--- End quote ---

The numbers for electric look best if you drive a lot - your example is 16K miles per year, assuming 48 working weeks (4 weeks vacation with no driving).

Consider the case if you drive the national average 12K per year, now the break-even is maybe 5-6 years.

Consider the case if you drive half of that,  or if you own more than one vehicle so neither one gets driven far...   gasoline is still competitive.


nctnico:
It also greatly depends on where you can charge a BEV. If you have to rely on public charging, then an efficient hybrid is cheaper and more convenient. The current crop of BEVs are nice as a small action radius roundabouts.
RJSV:
WOW, thanks SilverSolder, that example I had given would now actually extend, (at least pre-covid), which means 'Silicon Valley's phenomina of pulling in workers from afar.  My case, 34 miles in to San Jose to work, is 1980's.  Now, same job, almost same roads (choked), and we're talking TRACY, CA. to San Jose, for a coveted Apple job.  I'd be surprised, if that didn't double my miles per year! (To 32,000).
   And VACATION estimate, Whaaaaa, woewoe wait; no 4 weeks, more like 2 1/2 weeks per year.
There are lots of (smart) folks stuck on roads, at 5:15 am start of day.
   But, aren't there other 'mecca' type geography, where a job-rich area, maybe Minnesota I don't know, that have those mega-commute ?  Somebody else going to respond here, saying:
"...You should see I-5555 at 5 am in Omaha...bloody hell..."
   Yeah, I liked, your concept, of folks having the bigger family vehicle, used a lot less during the week. BUT, there could be regulations / restrictions looming, for anything not 'windmill' related. Not that I dislike clean approaches to power generation.
Having a windmill 'thrown' at you can be messy.
   But, serious, I'm not thinking that commuting long, Tracy to Cupertino (San Jose), is statistically a large thing, world-wide.(?) Maybe 2 % ?
Thanks.
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