General > General Technical Chat
Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) info - interesting stuff!
Rick Law:
--- Quote from: thm_w on April 26, 2019, 10:57:08 pm ---
--- Quote from: Rick Law on April 26, 2019, 09:22:48 pm ---As to Tesla, whether FSD is a big deal or not should not be a Tesla's worry -- The moment Consumers Report ranked the Tesla brand as third worst in reliability on the market (reference in my last reply = reply35 in this thread), their problem should no longer be FSD. Started that moment, their problem should be reliability. For them to worry about FSD right now is like worrying about the cookie crumbs on the floor while the living room is on fire.
--- End quote ---
If anyone is wondering: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tesla-reliability-slips-to-third-worst-in-us-consumer-reports-says.html
BMW has had historically bad reliability, and the highest maintenance costs, and yet they do well. Probably because its a luxury/status brand, and people are willing to put up with it. Tesla is in a similar situation now, so I don't see it being as big of a deal as you do.
https://clark.com/cars/most-and-least-expensive-cars-maintain-repair/
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I think it is a bigger problem for Tesla because:
(1) Outside of the aura of high tech and being an early EV, which was true when Tesla was new in the market, they have no other distinction. Now every premium car maker are making EV's. It is no longer so unique. So they are completing in a crowded market that is getting even more crowded.
(2) USA is their largest market but USA government subsidies for them is entering phased out stage (they reached the numbers where phase out begins this year), they will not be as price competitive as they once were - and this gap will grow since phase out means subsidies per car will decrease. In 2018, it was $7500/car; 1H2019 (first half 2019) will drop to $3750 and 2H2019 drops to $1875. I think 2020 is zero. This implies they will have further price/cost pressure and they don't have much room to squeeze when their quality is already so stressed.
In Denmark (source = zerohedge.com)[1], in 2016 when subsidies phased out for EV, Tesla sales drop 94%! So this year is a very bad year money-wise even if their operation is running smooth. For them to need to spend money on fixing manufacturing quality problem(s) spells big danger; perhaps existential danger.
May be I would be proven wrong and they can handle the price-pressure with lower than average quality. Their being third from bottom just doesn't give me a lot of confident...
Reference:
[1] zerohedge.com article June 2017:"It's Confirmed: Without Government Subsidies, Tesla Sales Implode"
"Nobody was hurt more than Tesla: the company, whose sales were skyrocketing at the time, lobbied against the move, with CEO Musk warning during a visit to Copenhagen that sales would be hit. It wasn't clear if the warning was targeting the government, the people of Denmark, or his own bank account and shareholders, but he was absolutely correct: in 2015 Tesla sold a total of 2,738 cars in Denmark. In 2016 the number dropped by 94% to just 176 units."
Full article here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-11/its-confirmed-without-government-subsidies-tesla-sales-implode
SilverSolder:
The situation in Denmark is a little special though, they have crazy high car sales taxes there (something like 180%) so any discount really matters! I recall seeing a Mercedes in Copenhagen with a personalised number plate: "PAID 3X"
nctnico:
@Rick Law: Tesla also receives money from other car manufacturers to compensate for their lack of selling electric vehicles. This source of income may also get reduced over time. If you own Tesla shares then now may be a good moment to sell.
wraper:
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 27, 2019, 09:46:01 pm ---@Rick Law: Tesla also receives money from other car manufacturers to compensate for their lack of selling electric vehicles. This source of income may also get reduced over time. If you own Tesla shares then now may be a good moment to sell.
--- End quote ---
Have you not heard about new factory in China?
nctnico:
--- Quote from: wraper on April 27, 2019, 10:01:28 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 27, 2019, 09:46:01 pm ---@Rick Law: Tesla also receives money from other car manufacturers to compensate for their lack of selling electric vehicles. This source of income may also get reduced over time. If you own Tesla shares then now may be a good moment to sell.
--- End quote ---
Have you not heard about new factory in China?
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Where they will have to compete with even better and more producers of electric cars. Over here we have a few electric busses driving around in the city. Made in China.
I've read an interesting article in one of the bigger newspapers of the NL. China is becoming a real power where it comes to automotive engineering for both electric and self driving cars. They have the biggest uniform market for cars in the world.
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