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Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) info - interesting stuff!

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wraper:

--- Quote from: nctnico on May 02, 2019, 10:54:12 pm ---
--- Quote from: wraper on May 02, 2019, 03:59:13 pm ---
--- Quote from: apis on May 02, 2019, 03:32:01 pm ---Google has already demonstrated they are able to map the parts of the world where they would want to drive in the foreseeable future, so the need for maps is not much of a limitation. Using maps is safer so why not use them if you can? Clearly they are able to deal with some changes in the map environment or else they wouldn't be able to drive as much as they do.

--- End quote ---
Yow fresh they generally are? 1 year, 2 years? I've seen plenty of situations when map came out yesterday, but does not match actual road which was rebuilt differently a few months ago. Not to say, it's not just satellite view that is required in this case.

--- End quote ---
But how much of the total amount of roads is that? 0.0001%? You also have to understand that the map data + location is used to augment what the sensors bring in.

IMHO it is pretty useless to discuss all kinds of edge cases. People also drive off the road for many different reasons. Why should a self driving car be error free? In the end what counts is that less people get injured or killed in car accidents and that mobility improves.

--- End quote ---
I don't say it should be error free but relying on precision maps is a kind of dead end approach. You can get stellar results when in perfect environment but when it comes to real life, it will kinda suck. They report low number of disengagements but IMO it's a misleading number since they drive in thoroughly investigated areas.

--- Quote ---But how much of the total amount of roads is that? 0.0001%
--- End quote ---
Like 1k-10k times more than that. If it was 0.0001% I doubt you would ever stumble on that in your life, yet I've seen it several times in one 300 km trip.

--- Quote ---IMHO it is pretty useless to discuss all kinds of edge cases.
--- End quote ---
Edge cases is the most important part since it's what breaks proper operation.

nctnico:
But how does a changed road suddenly becomes an edge case? Why would that be? Also I never wrote that a system has to rely on precision maps however precises maps are a good start to find out which road a car is driving on. Current navigation systems can easely get confused. Accurate maps and cm precision (terrestrial) positioning will help to let a self driving car know where it actually is.

wilfred:

--- Quote from: nctnico on May 02, 2019, 10:54:12 pm ---
IMHO it is pretty useless to discuss all kinds of edge cases. People also drive off the road for many different reasons. Why should a self driving car be error free? In the end what counts is that less people get injured or killed in car accidents and that mobility improves.

--- End quote ---

An auto should be error free because when it fails it is necessary to look at who, how and why it had the error and if necessary look to seek justice for the victims (if any) of the error. I think it will be good if fewer people die or get injured overall. But since that doesn't matter to the victim or their family and friends who will want to hold someone responsible it can't work to justify the introduction of autos.

If people don't trust and feel safe in or near autos then they will not succeed. People are shocked when someone mistakenly presses the accelerator instead of the brake and drives into a crowd waiting for a bus or whatever. However, because they are also human and fallible they can and have to accept that such things will happen. There will be an investigation to find out what factors led to the incident like alchohol or drugs, mobile phone distraction and so on.

Those factors may not be what causes an auto to fail but people will also have a harder time getting their heads around what a firmware error or sensor failure is and how it might impact them in their daily interactions with an auto. People just will not accept a corporation (or a government) doing the math and putting profit ahead of lives, their lives.

The real problem I see with autos is not getting them to drive from A to B but dealing with the issues when they don't.

Rick Law:
Well...  We shall see if he is right:

CNBC, May 2, 2019: "Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company"
"... ... Musk confidently told investors on the call that autonomous driving will transform Tesla into a company with a $500 billion market cap, these people said. Its current market cap stands around $42 billion. He also said that existing Teslas will increase in value as self-driving capabilities are added via software, and will be worth up to $250,000 within three years. ... ..."

Full article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon-musk-on-investor-call-autonomy-will-make-tesla-a-500b-company.html

madires:
Emphasis on "up to". >:D It could be also just an upgrade package for US$10k since all car manufacturers will offer self-driving capabilities in the future.

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