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Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) info - interesting stuff!

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apis:
If Tesla's autopilot can't even handle a highway interchange reliably, which is a very basic task, they are clearly not anywhere near full autonomy, so trying to compare the number of fatalities is like comparing apples and oranges anyway. The best public data are number of disengagements in California which the companies are required to publish by law. According to that data Waymo are twice as good as GM who are second.

Tesla haven't even published any data because they aren't testing in California.
'Tesla said it “did not test any vehicles on public roads in California in autonomous mode or operate any autonomous vehicles, as defined by California law.”'

You can see the full table here:
https://www.therobotreport.com/waymo-autonomous-vehicles-apple/

Dubbie:
Interesting.

Thanks for the data.

CatalinaWOW:
The disengagements data is interesting on many levels.  For example Nissan managed to make very little improvement in the last year.  And Uber, who averaged a problem every half mile never had any business on public roads.  Not even close to ready for prime time.  It is really hard to assign any credibility to those who are going single digit distances without disengaging.  Plenty of fuel here for those who say that self driving is impossible, or at least impossibly far in the future.

On the other hand Waymo and GM Cruise are well into the danger zone.  Good enough to inspire complacency on the part of the human operator, but maybe not good enough to be fully in charge.

Finally, plotting the data shows that in general performance is well correlated with experience.  When experience reaches about ten times what Waymo has now you should expect about one disengagement in the life of an automobile.  Somewhere in that neighborhood of performance should be getting close to satisfying most folks.  Certainly in the same class as human operators.

The plot also clearly shows Apple and Uber as not good learners well out of family on the bad side, and Telenav and BMW on the other side of the scale.  All are low on the experience scale.  If Telenav and BMW can keep up that level of performance through a significant body of experience they could easily arrive at the finish line first.

apis:
Interesting plot that.

Maybe it's worth pointing out again that disengagement doesn't mean the car would have caused an accident.

For example, as wraper has pointed out heavy rain is problematic because it blocks the lidar sensors. So heavy rain is likely one cause for disengagements in those statistics. But at the same time we see that Tesla autopilot drives in heavy rain without lidar. I.e. a car would likely be able to continue driving without any accidents relying only on the cameras and radars even in heavy rain. Heavy rain would mean an increased risk of accidents (the same is true for human drivers though), but an accident would still be unlikely, and the car might handle it by simply pull over and stop in a suitable location until the weather changes.

Similarly if the map is out of date, I would assume the cars will fail gracefully.

On the other hand, a disengagement might also occur because the car was about to run over a pedestrian and the safety driver had to step on the brakes to avoid it.

The latter is obviously a bigger problem than the former. Disengagements are a crude metric, but it's the best that's available since it's something the companies are required to report by law.

wilfred:
Wouldn't a disengagement require a licenced driver at the wheel? I'm starting to see a problem with training the next generation of licenced drivers. If you're going to take over in a crisis you sort of need experience to be able to make the decisions. Hopefully the car will be better than an inexperienced driver.

I'm still unconvinced a non-driving driver will have any hope of remaining engaged with the traffic. They have to sit there concentrating as if they were driving and babysit a machine that they implicitly don't trust completely. I'd rather take a bus.

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