Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) info - interesting stuff!

[BrianHG]

It looks as if the latest autopilot isn't too fussy about whether the driver is present or not!

Tesla's Autopilot 'tricked' to operate without driver

The Autopilot feature in Tesla vehicles can be tricked into operating without a driver, an influential consumer magazine in the US has found.

Consumer Reports engineers looked into claims that Autopilot can operate without a driver present.

They tested the Model Y on a closed track and concluded the system could be "easily tricked".

It comes days after a fatal Tesla crash in Texas. Police believe no one was in the driver's seat.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56854417


If you don't sufficiently defend against something, you can be sure that some moron is going to do it. 

https://xkcd.com/1559/


https://xkcd.com/1897/

[Ed.Kloonk]

^   So true.   

[SilverSolder]

Personally I don't want either one, I want a simple car with a proper manual gearbox so I focus 100% on *driving* the car when I'm behind the wheel.

That's certainly a pure pleasure when you are slowly moving in congestion.

Slowing moving in congestion is a drag no matter what. I've been driving a manual for over 20 years, every now and then I have to drive something with a slushbox, it makes no difference in heavy traffic but any other situation the manual is hugely superior.

Old school manuals are slowly disappearing in favour of paddle shifted "manumatics" and the like...

All part of justifying why the average price of a new car has passed $38K...    there has to be some tech in there to justify it! 

[Ed.Kloonk]

Old school manuals are slowly disappearing in favour of paddle shifted "manumatics" and the like...

All part of justifying why the average price of a new car has passed $38K...    there has to be some tech in there to justify it! 

When I was in England, manuals were -everywhere-. I asked around and the reason I was given was that the manual goes back decades. Nobody bought the automatic because you'd spend that extra money on other features. Or save the money, of course.

I'm wondering if is still the case and if the non-essential high-tech in cars there might be overlooked.

[wraper]

Tesla's by my count has less than 1/100th the required processing power to run full self driving as reliably as a human using just cameras.

Also, their method/scope of training also way too narrow focused just so they can get something barely functional with such small narrow minded neuro-net processor.

Full self driving will soon one day come, but, I think with Elon's narrow scope of the true development and processing requirements, he will end up falling to a newer generation/company who will bring the real thing to fruition unless he changes his business practices and truly pays/invests special attention to the authentic scope of the problem at hand.  Anything he claims his current Tesla's will be able to perform true self driving is just an investor sales pitch which will never be truly delivered without user's lives being placed at risk.

Are you an expert in AI?
All that is required to make a regular car drive without driver present on a seat.

[SilverSolder]

Old school manuals are slowly disappearing in favour of paddle shifted "manumatics" and the like...

All part of justifying why the average price of a new car has passed $38K...    there has to be some tech in there to justify it! 

When I was in England, manuals were -everywhere-. I asked around and the reason I was given was that the manual goes back decades. Nobody bought the automatic because you'd spend that extra money on other features. Or save the money, of course.

I'm wondering if is still the case and if the non-essential high-tech in cars there might be overlooked.

Yep, most European countries like their manual transmissions.  They work better with the often small, fuel sipping engines than slushboxes do. 

The US has always preferred automatics with their bigger cars, bigger engines, and bigger roads, and less "work" to drive.

What do people prefer in Australia?

[BrianHG]

Tesla's by my count has less than 1/100th the required processing power to run full self driving as reliably as a human using just cameras.

Also, their method/scope of training also way too narrow focused just so they can get something barely functional with such small narrow minded neuro-net processor.

Full self driving will soon one day come, but, I think with Elon's narrow scope of the true development and processing requirements, he will end up falling to a newer generation/company who will bring the real thing to fruition unless he changes his business practices and truly pays/invests special attention to the authentic scope of the problem at hand.  Anything he claims his current Tesla's will be able to perform true self driving is just an investor sales pitch which will never be truly delivered without user's lives being placed at risk.

Are you an expert in AI?
All that is required to make a regular car drive without driver present on a seat.

Not an expert, but I know enough to see that you need more that just the ability to recognize the road, people, obstructions, lanes, sign recognition, driving rules, map reading.  Having all the basic functions is not enough tied to cameras and scene recognition isn't enough.  They are missing the multiple abstract point of views which such a small processor can handle.  Like, what would happen in a situation where you need to merge in traffic, but the other drivers on the road are being pricks because they know they can break some driving rules and get away with it while they know Tesla's driving AI will not break the rules, never giving it a chance to merge, or since the AI wont aggressively push itself into an intersection at the end of a traffic light cycle to make a left turn where is some circumstance no one would allow it to get a chance at a left turn.

Also, all the firing of the managers for Elon's self driving AI is also suspicious that they already know certain limits have been reached with the existing hardware in his cars.  We have been promised for years ago by Elon that it would already be here, and yet a human driver still needs to be present and in control of the wheel.

Like I said, true autonomous driving is coming, but it's beginning to look like it wont come from the existing Teslas.

[wraper]

They are missing the multiple abstract point of views which such a small processor can handle.

It's not small by any means and there are 2 of them. https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip

to run full self driving as reliably as a human using just cameras.

It's a pretty low standard considering that most of the humans make a lot of mistakes, are inattentive, or drive outright erratic.

Also, all the firing of the managers for Elon's self driving AI is also suspicious

The same was done with Starlink due to insufficient development speed. Fired managers were hired by Amazon for project Kuiper, and it does not seem they are moving anywhere fast enough. By the time they will launch anything, they will be not needed since Starlink will take over all of the market.

[BrianHG]

They are missing the multiple abstract point of views which such a small processor can handle.

It's not small by any means and there are 2 of them. https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip

to run full self driving as reliably as a human using just cameras.

It's a pretty low standard considering that most of the humans make a lot of mistakes, are inattentive, or drive outright erratic.

  Make that at least 250x if not 500x more processing power power required.
You are interpreting my comments at the wrong level and like Elon, missing the true requirements of a system required to out-perform a human when said human isn't making any mistakes.

[wraper]

  Make that at least 250x if not 500x more processing power power required.

Frankly you are just pulling numbers out of your ass.

You are interpreting my comments at the wrong level and like Elon, missing the true requirements of a system required to out-perform a human when said human isn't making any mistakes.

It needs to be better than a real average human. Not better than an idolized flawless human who does not exist.

[BrianHG]

  Make that at least 250x if not 500x more processing power power required.

Frankly you are just pulling numbers out of your ass.

You are interpreting my comments at the wrong level and like Elon, missing the true requirements of a system required to out-perform a human when said human isn't making any mistakes.

It needs to be better than a real average human. Not better than an idolized flawless human who does not exist.

Again, I didn't mean there is an idealized perfect human.  I meant when comparing a driving situation where a human hasn't made a mistake.

Yes, my numbers are designed to nudge your brain a little to try to expand your view.  But I do not expect that tiny amount of GPU and NPUs with that tiny ram to be able to assess is a pedestrian on the sidewalk is in a fight, or drunk, or of a child appears to be ignoring his surroundings who looks as if they are about to turn onto the road the same way a human with attention to the situation would know to be extra cautious.

[Gyro]

They are missing the multiple abstract point of views which such a small processor can handle.

It's not small by any means and there are 2 of them. https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip

Just the right number for a driver - back seat driver argument! 

[wraper]

Again, I didn't mean there is an idealized perfect human. I meant when comparing a driving situation where a human hasn't made a mistake.

It's basically a definition of an idolized flawless human. Cherry picking some situations when human might respond better, does not mean that human will be a better driver overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

[BrianHG]

Again, I didn't mean there is an idealized perfect human. I meant when comparing a driving situation where a human hasn't made a mistake.

It's basically a definition of an idolized flawless human. Cherry picking some situations when human might respond better, does not mean that human will be a better driver overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

Continue reading the rest of my post.

As for cherry picking situations, these so-called situation are what the FSD must pass to be public-ally acceptable in a dynamic world with pesky humans in it.  And like I said, if Elon wont address this, you better believe that there are others who are working on ways of doing so.  They will be the future and they will the ones to succeed at a level 5 FSD.

Just sticking you head in the ground ignoring something which can be solved leaves the door open to those who will do the work and make something better.  Especially if company 'B' comes out and proves their AI can perform some situational awareness of the intent of other humans bot driving cars as well as pedestrians.

[SilverSolder]

I'm looking forward to a driverless car with a drop-down menu in its display:

[Marco]

Since we already have a xkcd comic, here's one from SMBC.

Tesla has always relied on extremely risky strategies to sell their car. They got lucky that all the firetrucks and police cars they hit never killed a cop or emergency responder, they got lucky no big lawsuits related to FSD promises got off the ground ... but their luck will run out. All that's staving off lawsuits for false advertising and breach of contract is that they keep doubling down, instead of throwing in the towel and admitting the timeframe is shot and they have no idea when or if it will ever work, but I can't see that strategy working indefinitely.

https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fsd

[wraper]

I'm looking forward to a driverless car with a drop-down menu in its display:

[RJSV]

   Thought the video, on neural networks, would help give an introduction, at least helping me understand the scale of the hardware involved.
- - Rick-Jack

[Marco]

Tesla build in a hack to try to detect flashing lights to help with all the false negatives for crashes against stationary vehicles. Hasn't helped yet.

I don't see why people expect so much from FSD when autopilot keeps getting into silly crashes.

[coppice]

When I was in England, manuals were -everywhere-. I asked around and the reason I was given was that the manual goes back decades. Nobody bought the automatic because you'd spend that extra money on other features. Or save the money, of course.

I'm wondering if is still the case and if the non-essential high-tech in cars there might be overlooked.

In England it used to be big car automatic, small car manual, and in England most cars are small. Things have really changed in the last 5 years. Automatics now slightly outsell manuals, and their market share is increasing rapidly. With electrification, whether partial (i.e. hybrids) or full, automatics will clearly take over. Even driving schools are finally considering taking automatics seriously as learner cars.

[Ed.Kloonk]

When I was in England, manuals were -everywhere-. I asked around and the reason I was given was that the manual goes back decades. Nobody bought the automatic because you'd spend that extra money on other features. Or save the money, of course.

I'm wondering if is still the case and if the non-essential high-tech in cars there might be overlooked.

In England it used to be big car automatic, small car manual, and in England most cars are small. Things have really changed in the last 5 years. Automatics now slightly outsell manuals, and their market share is increasing rapidly. With electrification, whether partial (i.e. hybrids) or full, automatics will clearly take over. Even driving schools are finally considering taking automatics seriously as learner cars.

Where I am they now place a distinction on your licence if you didn't learn (or pass the exam) in an manual. In other words, you cannot drive a manual unless qualified.

[james_s]

Where I am they now place a distinction on your licence if you didn't learn (or pass the exam) in an manual. In other words, you cannot drive a manual unless qualified.

I wish they did that here. I think more people would choose a manual if they'd ever had the chance to experience driving one. As it stands most people never get the opportunity since almost all cars have a slushbox.

[madires]

Where I am they now place a distinction on your licence if you didn't learn (or pass the exam) in an manual. In other words, you cannot drive a manual unless qualified.

We have that already for a long time. Since last year people with a driver's license for automatics can take 10 driving lessons (each 45 minutes) and a brief driving test (15 minutes) to 'upgrade' to manual.

[nctnico]

Where I am they now place a distinction on your licence if you didn't learn (or pass the exam) in an manual. In other words, you cannot drive a manual unless qualified.

I wish they did that here. I think more people would choose a manual if they'd ever had the chance to experience driving one. As it stands most people never get the opportunity since almost all cars have a slushbox.

Having driven mostly manual cars I'd say having an automatic gearbox would be better. In the end shifting gears manually is just a tedious job.

What you likely mean is that driver's training in the US should be taken more seriously and the bar to pass the theoretical and practical exams should be set higher so the quality of driving skills improves.

[coppice]

Where I am they now place a distinction on your licence if you didn't learn (or pass the exam) in an manual. In other words, you cannot drive a manual unless qualified.

In the UK, and many other places, if you pass your test in an automatic, you cannot drive a manual car. They are two completely separate classes of licence. People visiting the UK, who try to rent a car, often have hassle, because the rental companies have very few automatics in their fleet.