General > General Technical Chat
Tesla's Autopilot Scam - by BS Exposed
Marco:
--- Quote from: BrianHG on December 17, 2023, 02:33:06 am ---I claimed that it was impossible on this tech forum years ago in a Musk thread and that others will eventually beat him to it within the next 15 years
--- End quote ---
No one is going to beat them to it without true AI, yet I doubt true AI will want to be a chauffeur ... it's just plain impossible for anyone, Tesla is not special. They think it's possible, the rest is just schedule slip from their perspective.
It's less a scam than a self delusion. Almost all of the media and industry keep wrongly saying self driving isn't AI hard, why would it be a scam for Elon to still believe that? Unless you're saying the entire industry is a scam which seems a bit pessimistic.
tom66:
--- Quote from: BrianHG on December 17, 2023, 02:33:06 am ---Old news. I claimed that it was impossible on this tech forum years ago in a Musk thread and that others will eventually beat him to it within the next 15 years (now around 12 left) and I was booed and disciplined about Musk's greatness and fantastic 2 super neuro chips were overkill and impossible to fail...
--- End quote ---
Yeah... it's CLEARLY impossible...
https://youtu.be/watch?v=nAxHWS5i_W0
Don't get me wrong... Tesla should not have sold these systems for $10k+ each and if I had paid that kind of money for FSD I would be disappointed. There are remaining concerns about safety and abuse of the FSD system in its beta configuration too.
But it's pretty clear that Tesla are quite far ahead on FSD and that provided they can continue to iterate on safety and reliability, they can fundamentally achieve driverless operation at SAE Level 4 at least. (They are at SAE Level 3 currently.)
The only other companies that have achieved this are Waymo and Cruise who both require custom cars covered in LIDAR at a cost of $5-10k per sensor. Waymo have certainly beaten Tesla to the FSD crown, no doubt, but it's not as if the technology is one and done.
nctnico:
--- Quote from: BrianHG on December 17, 2023, 02:33:06 am ---Old news. I claimed that it was impossible on this tech forum years ago in a Musk thread and that others will eventually beat him to it within the next 15 years (now around 12 left) and I was booed and disciplined about Musk's greatness and fantastic 2 super neuro chips were overkill and impossible to fail...
--- End quote ---
By the way things look nowadays, it might be sooner than your 12 years. IIRC BMW and Mercedes are quite far along and operate at a higher readiness level compared to Tesla. The car electronics giant Bosch and their huge capacity to invest in new technology has a lot to do with it. It is way for car manufacturers to share development costs so each only pays a fraction of the bill (mostly afterwards). In the end Tesla will simply buy the self driving system from Bosch.
janoc:
--- Quote from: tom66 on December 17, 2023, 11:55:33 am ---But it's pretty clear that Tesla are quite far ahead on FSD and that provided they can continue to iterate on safety and reliability, they can fundamentally achieve driverless operation at SAE Level 4 at least. (They are at SAE Level 3 currently.)
--- End quote ---
Tesla's Autopilot is at SAE level 2, despite the marketing and the "Full self driving" moniker. It is by their own description to the regulator (unlike their marketing message):
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails
The only system that is currently certified as level 3 is actually from Mercedes.
Tesla's technology is very good - but is still very very far from anything resembling a level 4 and even less a level 5 system. And it is not at all clear whether they can actually "fundamentally achieve driverless operation at SAE Level 4 at least." (I wonder where do you get that sense of security to make such claim - based on what, exactly?)
The biggest problem is that they are iterating on safety and reliability at the expense of safety of everyone else around their cars. Sure, it is the driver who is ultimately responsible for whatever the car does. But that is just legal CYA and won't help the victim of an accident - the same as a shooting victim isn't helped by the fact that the parent of the shooter should have secured their guns at home better.
Many things that Tesla does with their Autopilot are going completely against the existing human factors research and giving the drivers false sense of security, thus promoting complacency and drivers not paying attention to the road. Which is lethal in a level 2 (or even level 3) system. These lessons have been learned and paid for in blood in aviation and railways, for example, where such systems exist since a long time ago - and where the available reaction times when the automation conks out are typically much longer than in a car driving on a motorway with a distracted driver.
wraper:
--- Quote from: janoc on December 17, 2023, 12:41:37 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on December 17, 2023, 11:55:33 am ---But it's pretty clear that Tesla are quite far ahead on FSD and that provided they can continue to iterate on safety and reliability, they can fundamentally achieve driverless operation at SAE Level 4 at least. (They are at SAE Level 3 currently.)
--- End quote ---
Tesla's Autopilot is at SAE level 2, despite the marketing.
--- End quote ---
Yes, it's level 2 technically. However SAE level tells very little about actual capability and more about how much driver attention is needed. You can do pretty useless autopilot with no requirement to keep your hands on steering wheel but which only works on some pre-mapped straight highways, with 40 mph speed limit, only in perfect weather, that cannot change lanes, and call it SAE level 3. So it's only useable in traffic jams on those certain perfect situations, hi Mercedes.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version