| General > General Technical Chat |
| The autopilot, again... |
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| vk6zgo:
--- Quote from: nctnico on June 06, 2020, 11:59:49 pm ---What is the ratio of human drivers running into stationary objects versus autonomous vehicles? Yes, human drivers run their cars into stationary objects as well. Youtube is chuck full of movies showing stupid car crashes which don't involve autonomous vehicles. --- End quote --- I think the ratio would be in the human's favour, simply because of the disparity in numbers. There are millions of non-autonomous vehicles, compared to a mere handful of autonomous ones. Most human drivers drive millions of kilometres over decades, without ever running into stationary objects. The accident rate is higher for moving objects. Another question, how many Tesla owners use the semi-autonomous system, anyway? Most of the comments I've read were from car enthusiasts telling us how good the Teslas were to drive. |
| Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: vk6zgo on June 07, 2020, 06:39:19 am ---I think the ratio would be in the human's favour, simply because of the disparity in numbers. There are millions of non-autonomous vehicles, compared to a mere handful of autonomous ones. --- End quote --- Yes but do remember that Tesla is not an autonomous vehicle, not by any definition, and not even close. Even calling it "semi-autonomous" is hugely misleading, "semi" giving an impression of roughly around 50% of something. It is their target, but there's a difference here. As of now, they are not even claiming they have anything close to an autonomous vehicle on market. On R&D, who knows. As for the ratio, we don't know. Actual autonomous vehicles (all prototypes) have had very few accidents AFAIK, but the numbers on the streets are very low as well. We would need real data instead of guesses. Until proven I'm wrong, I think that autonomous vehicle must have some kind of radar/lidar/equivalent system for 99.9999% reliable collision detection and obstacle mapping, and I think this is a hard requirement. Tesla might prove me wrong. Of course, such radar/lidar solution is the easiest part, which is exactly the reason why it should be there. I'm sure Tesla is working great on the complex AI side of things. |
| nctnico:
--- Quote from: vk6zgo on June 07, 2020, 06:39:19 am --- --- Quote from: nctnico on June 06, 2020, 11:59:49 pm ---What is the ratio of human drivers running into stationary objects versus autonomous vehicles? Yes, human drivers run their cars into stationary objects as well. Youtube is chuck full of movies showing stupid car crashes which don't involve autonomous vehicles. --- End quote --- I think the ratio would be in the human's favour, simply because of the disparity in numbers. --- End quote --- Without doing the actual statistics that is still wild speculation. I wouldn't be surprised that for each video on Youtube showing Tesla's auto-pilot crashing into something you can find footage of 10,000 accidents which could have easily be avoided if the driver paid attention. BTW I'm not defending Tesla here but I'm fed up with wild stories which aren't backed by solid science & facts. The world can do with much less FUD. |
| jmelson:
So, is the Tesla system vision only, or does it have radar, too? I see from the crash picture that the top of the truck seems to be plastic, so maybe even a mm-wave radar would not have gotten a return off of that. But, yes, this seems to have been a case where a vision system SHOULD have detected an obstruction. On the other hand, 3 human-driven cars behind the Tesla did not see the truck & crashed car until VERY late and barely escaped an additional 3-4 car crash, even though they had plenty of time to see a crash ahead. Jon |
| Mr. Scram:
To be fair, the human in the Mercedes also barely noticed the wreck. I don't think it's possible to draw meaningful conclusions until you have a sound statistical understanding how Tesla's performance compares to human drivers. I think Tesla may do better than expected, based on the fact humans are utter idiots. |
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