Author Topic: the dark side of cobalt  (Read 15696 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #100 on: July 14, 2023, 03:46:54 pm »
During the Triassic period it was 4000ppm, 10 times higher than today.
The world never ended.
CO2 is plant food, NOT a dangerous gas.
200ppm to 400ppm a %50 increase,  sounds bad.
Geez, get your math straight. From 200ppm to 400ppm is a 100% increase.
Secondly, CO2 starts to become problematic (toxic) to humans starting from concentrations of 1000ppm. Above that level things like concentration problems start to occur and ultimately death. CO2 is a toxic gas to most animals.

And plants don't like a lot of CO2 either. Optimum is between 800ppm and 1500ppm

The idea that CO2 is "fine" and is not really worth worrying about because plants will love it is something that started in the US, I think.  Because it's now undeniable that CO2 is rising, and that humans are causing that rise, but "Plants love CO2! So it is not bad!".  It fails some of the most basic tests, like, ok, even if plants love it, do we, what about atmospheric temperatures, what about the oceans?  Plants may well thrive in 2000ppm CO2, but I think we will be mostly dead!
Actually there is something else to be worried about. If you look at CO2 levels from ice core drillings, you'll see a sharp peak every 40k years (IIRC; super exact number doesn't matter). What matter is that at this point in time we are right at the point where such a peak is supposed to occur. So there are 2 possible scenarios here: 1) human activity is amplifying the natural CO2 peak and even with CO2 emission reductions the level will rise to higher levels or 2) the natural peak hasn't happened yet and we (humans) have made the situation quite bad already so the natural CO2 peak becomes a double whammy. I have not investigated in the how & why the natural CO2 peaks occured in the past. It would be interesting to find out what the mechanism behind it is. Melting permafrost perhaps?

And for sure earth will continue to circle around the sun but changes in the climate will reduce the amount of land people & animals can live on drastically both by rising sea levels and deserts getting larger.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2023, 03:54:46 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Karel

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #101 on: July 14, 2023, 03:52:35 pm »
Quote
f you look at CO2 levels from ice core drillings, you'll see a sharp peak every 40k years (IIRC; super exact number doesn't matter). What matter is that at this point in time we are right at the point where such a peak is supposed to occur. So there are 2 possible scenarios here:

Possibility 3: We are at the peak and once we passed it, CO2 levels will go down, no need to worry  :popcorn:

 

Offline tszaboo

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #102 on: July 14, 2023, 04:03:27 pm »
In an alternate reality, mankind is intentionally increasing the temperature, so the vast tundras and taigas become habitable and good for agriculture.
In yet an alternative reality Earth is broken down to build a Dyson ring.
I can tell you one thing: This is an engineering problem, and the solution is not going to come from politicians, or 17 year old autistic children.
So I'm just going back to my work, increasing the efficiency of the transportation of chemicals. Just a bit. You guys go ahead and do the same in your field, and we might just make it.
 
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Offline TimFox

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #103 on: July 14, 2023, 04:16:16 pm »
Note that whatever is causing climate change, it will hit different parts of the Earth differently.
That is bound to increase migration from worsened regions to more temperate climes.
What could go wrong?
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #104 on: July 14, 2023, 05:39:37 pm »
Quote
f you look at CO2 levels from ice core drillings, you'll see a sharp peak every 40k years (IIRC; super exact number doesn't matter). What matter is that at this point in time we are right at the point where such a peak is supposed to occur. So there are 2 possible scenarios here:

Possibility 3: We are at the peak and once we passed it, CO2 levels will go down, no need to worry  :popcorn:

The shape of the current peak is different than those occurring earlier, which are like sinusoidal wavelets. Now it has increased with like 10x the rate or so. That is why Possibility 3 seems unlikely. (But of course, even this is oversimplifying a complex matter; and panic is of no help; actions should be both effective and not unnecessarily limiting.)
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #105 on: July 14, 2023, 06:22:36 pm »
You can model the climate fairly accurately.

A significant increase in arctic tundra temperatures risks the release of methane from permafrost which would further trigger warming.  Given methane has a 100yr GWP of about 20, it doesn't take much methane released to cause further warming, which could cause further warming and so on.  Positive feedback loops like that are extremely concerning.
The hilarity ensues when the climate “scientists" claim with absolute certainty that they possess a marvelously accurate climate change model, only to turn around and sprinkle their statements with delightful little modal verbs "could" and "would" that hint at mere possibility rather than solid certainty...

No, you do not have a reliable model that accounts for all the complexities and intertwined dependencies that affect the climate. You are unable to predict with certainty if methane will be released, whether Gulf Stream and other ocean currents will change and cool down Northern Europe, or the exact effects of sunlight reflection from greater cloud coverage caused by warmer and moister climate. You also cannot accurately model and predict the impact of greener vegetation in regions that are currently inhospitable to life, nor reliably predict increases in absorption of CO2 by plankton if the global ocean warms up.

However, I can certainly predict that you can travel from a bone-chilling -50°C climate in Siberia to a scorching +45°C climate in Dubai in less than 24 hours and survive. Based on that observation, one might assume that humans can endure a +3°C average temperature rise over several generations.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2023, 06:24:16 pm by vad »
 

Offline Gyro

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #106 on: July 14, 2023, 06:57:45 pm »
...
However, I can certainly predict that you can travel from a bone-chilling -50°C climate in Siberia to a scorching +45°C climate in Dubai in less than 24 hours and survive. Based on that observation, one might assume that humans can endure a +3°C average temperature rise over several generations.

And their food supply?

Edit: And to some extent, locally, their drinking water supply.
Best Regards, Chris
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #107 on: July 14, 2023, 07:10:05 pm »
The hilarity ensues when the climate “scientists" claim with absolute certainty that they possess a marvelously accurate climate change model, only to turn around and sprinkle their statements with delightful little modal verbs "could" and "would" that hint at mere possibility rather than solid certainty...

No, you do not have a reliable model that accounts for all the complexities and intertwined dependencies that affect the climate. You are unable to predict with certainty if methane will be released, whether Gulf Stream and other ocean currents will change and cool down Northern Europe, or the exact effects of sunlight reflection from greater cloud coverage caused by warmer and moister climate. You also cannot accurately model and predict the impact of greener vegetation in regions that are currently inhospitable to life, nor reliably predict increases in absorption of CO2 by plankton if the global ocean warms up.

However, I can certainly predict that you can travel from a bone-chilling -50°C climate in Siberia to a scorching +45°C climate in Dubai in less than 24 hours and survive. Based on that observation, one might assume that humans can endure a +3°C average temperature rise over several generations.

I don't recall climate scientists ever saying with certainty that X will happen.  It is usually stated that "it is more likely that X" will happen.  Things like flood risk are a lot easier to analyse because based on average temperatures you can predict ice sheet melting and therefore sea level rise.  Plug that into weather or tidal models and you have your answer.  Peak temperatures can also be analysed: what happens when a high pressure event happens at location Z in June... ok, now add +Y W/m^2 additional forcing... now what does it look like?   There's your "bad case" warming figures.  The problem is high pressure events like that tend to stick around, so now what happens to crop yield when you have sustained 45C temperatures in a place that would normally see 35C?

Also, even if you completely refuse to believe climate scientists and Greta, know that insurance companies (who are very interested in making correct long-term bets, see reinsurance for instance), are accounting for the significant potential harms of climate change.  For instance, they're getting increasingly reluctant to insure new properties in the Fens in England.  This is an area that was drained by Dutch engineers (by royal decree) in the late 1700s early 1800s, and the land sits only about 10 metres or so above sea level.    The result is that these properties will eventually become uninsurable.   Farmers are impacted too because a significant proportion of England's agriculture is based in this area.
 

Offline TimFox

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #108 on: July 14, 2023, 07:12:08 pm »
One of many discussions of climate-induced migration (from the German government):  https://www.bmz.de/en/issues/climate-change-and-development/migration-and-climate
Macroscopic effects of warming such as drought and resulting desertification of the landscape are more important than packing a parka when flying north.
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #109 on: July 14, 2023, 08:10:58 pm »
Quote
In 2021 alone, extreme weather events led to the displacement of 23.7 million people. Most of these people return to their homes as soon as it is possible for them to do so.
I suppose a considerable portion of those 23.7 million individuals were Texas residents, many of whom temporarily abandoned their homes due to the blackout caused by the winter storm. Additionally, we can include hundreds of thousands of Californians who have opted to permanently relocate to other states, citing the state government's excessive emphasis on climate-related initiatives.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #110 on: July 14, 2023, 08:38:40 pm »
Quote
In 2021 alone, extreme weather events led to the displacement of 23.7 million people. Most of these people return to their homes as soon as it is possible for them to do so.
I suppose a considerable portion of those 23.7 million individuals were Texas residents, many of whom temporarily abandoned their homes due to the blackout caused by the winter storm. Additionally, we can include hundreds of thousands of Californians who have opted to permanently relocate to other states, citing the state government's excessive emphasis on climate-related initiatives.
IMHO it is not a good idea to use a limited set of data points as proof. Especially with something so random as weather. However, I have been alive long enough to notice a significant change in the climate. In my youth it was quite common for the small waters to freeze up so you could walk & ice skate on these during the winter. Nowadays it is super rare. Like once every 8 to 10 years. Summers have gotten different as well with dry winds coming from the north instead of humid air from the south or east.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2023, 08:51:55 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #111 on: July 14, 2023, 08:40:14 pm »
I don't recall climate scientists ever saying with certainty that X will happen.  It is usually stated that "it is more likely that X" will happen.

Oh, well, what a great confidence interval!

In comparison, in experimental physics, a widely accepted rule for acknowledging new discoveries is a 5σ threshold. This stringent criterion exists due to the many instances where claimed discoveries with sigma values between 3 and 4 failed to receive independent confirmation. Such discrepancies can be attributed to researcher bias.

In the medical, pharmaceutical, and health sciences field, 3σ is a norm, thanks to techniques like double-blind randomized controlled trials that help mitigate bias.

Based on what you are saying, it appears that in the realm of climate "science” 0.7σ is a norm. Coupled with significant bias stemming from political corruption, monetary incentives, and fear, any models originating from such sources can be considered as reliable as fortune-telling with a crystal ball.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #112 on: July 14, 2023, 08:47:07 pm »
I don't recall climate scientists ever saying with certainty that X will happen.  It is usually stated that "it is more likely that X" will happen.

Oh, well, what a great confidence interval!

Before building a strawman to attack your opponent, have you actually READ some of what you claim to disagree with?

Page 20 is a good example:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

The confidence interval outcomes range from "bad" to "very, very bad" for situations like 3C warming, which current models suggest we are on the path towards.  (3C by 2050 or so.)

This is not a case of the outcomes ranging from "maybe nothing happens" to "bad" and you're hoping we're in the first category.  There is no projected outcome where nothing happens and things are all good.

Edit: most of the items in that document seem to be "high confidence" which is >9 in 10 chance of happening, or to a scientist, around 2-sigma or better.  A few items are "very high confidence" which is 3-sigma.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2023, 08:51:11 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #113 on: July 14, 2023, 08:47:50 pm »
The problem is high pressure events like that tend to stick around, so now what happens to crop yield when you have sustained 45C temperatures in a place that would normally see 35C?

Well, it's interesting to note that global crop yields have been increasing even as the global climate has been warming. I fail to observe any inverse correlation between the two.
 
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Offline TimFox

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #114 on: July 14, 2023, 08:52:15 pm »
Macroscopic indications of warming: the classic Dutch ice-skating marathon, started in 1909.
In the past 50 years, the Elfstedentocht has taken place only three times, most recently in 1997.
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #115 on: July 14, 2023, 08:59:19 pm »
Macroscopic indications of warming: the classic Dutch ice-skating marathon, started in 1909.
In the past 50 years, the Elfstedentocht has taken place only three times, most recently in 1997.

Another factor.  The Thames in London historically froze over about once every 10-15 years from 1400 to the early 1900s.  It hasn't frozen over since 1963.  At one point, the river was frozen over by 30" ice, and market stalls and events were held on the ice.
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #116 on: July 14, 2023, 09:06:12 pm »

Page 20 is a good example:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

I am sorry, but what does IPCC, a lobbyist organization of climate scaremongers, previously caught in falsifying and cherry picking data, have to do with science? They are paid for pushing forward climate change agenda. Any research that does not support their agenda is ignore by IPCC.
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #117 on: July 14, 2023, 09:14:18 pm »
Macroscopic indications of warming: the classic Dutch ice-skating marathon, started in 1909.
In the past 50 years, the Elfstedentocht has taken place only three times, most recently in 1997.

Another factor.  The Thames in London historically froze over about once every 10-15 years from 1400 to the early 1900s.  It hasn't frozen over since 1963.  At one point, the river was frozen over by 30" ice, and market stalls and events were held on the ice.
And before that: “The Romans introduced winemaking to the UK, in a period with a relatively warm climate. Their vineyards were as far north as Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire, with others in Buckinghamshire and Cambridgeshire” (Wikipedia)

So what we know for sure, is that the climate is always changing.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #118 on: July 14, 2023, 09:17:21 pm »
I am sorry, but what does IPCC, a lobbyist organization of climate scaremongers, previously caught in falsifying and cherry picking data, have to do with science? They are paid for pushing forward climate change agenda. Any research that does not support their agenda is ignore by IPCC.

Please provide your evidence towards the IPCC being corrupt in the manner described.  IPCC is independent of governments and summarises existing research.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #119 on: July 14, 2023, 09:19:17 pm »
Macroscopic indications of warming: the classic Dutch ice-skating marathon, started in 1909.
In the past 50 years, the Elfstedentocht has taken place only three times, most recently in 1997.

Another factor.  The Thames in London historically froze over about once every 10-15 years from 1400 to the early 1900s.  It hasn't frozen over since 1963.  At one point, the river was frozen over by 30" ice, and market stalls and events were held on the ice.
And before that: “The Romans introduced winemaking to the UK, in a period with a relatively warm climate. Their vineyards were as far north as Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire, with others in Buckinghamshire and Cambridgeshire” (Wikipedia)

So what we know for sure, is that the climate is always changing.
But the question is: did it ever change so fast that you can actually notice it happening?
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline TimFox

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #120 on: July 14, 2023, 09:25:02 pm »
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
When evaluating the question of global warming, look at macroscopic longer-term effects such as shrinkage of glaciers, not a cold snap in Texas nor its current dangerous heat wave.
 

Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #121 on: July 14, 2023, 09:43:58 pm »
I am sorry, but what does IPCC, a lobbyist organization of climate scaremongers, previously caught in falsifying and cherry picking data, have to do with science? They are paid for pushing forward climate change agenda. Any research that does not support their agenda is ignore by IPCC.

Please provide your evidence towards the IPCC being corrupt in the manner described.  IPCC is independent of governments and summarises existing research.

One word: climategate.

Quote: “emails released by a computer hacker that revealed that several leading climate scientists allegedly manipulated climate data and research used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  These scientists also appear to have refused outside access to their raw data, obstructed freedom of information requests, and plotted ways to prevent the publication of papers in peer-reviewed journals by scientists who question global warming alarmism.”

https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2009/11/post-27fe9184-802a-23ad-45e5-8feb948b7bb3


 

Offline TimFox

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #122 on: July 14, 2023, 09:53:24 pm »
Speaking of cherry picking, here is the Wikipedia summary of that controversy:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy
Other groups looking at the rendering of the hacked e-mails came to conclusions like
'The controversy has focused on a small number of emails with climate change denier websites picking out particular phrases, such as one in which Kevin Trenberth said, "The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t". This was actually part of a discussion on the need for better monitoring of the energy flows involved in short-term climate variability, but was grossly mischaracterised by critics.'
As is common in the current state of discussion
'One of the IPCC's lead authors, Raymond Pierrehumbert of the University of Chicago, expressed concern at the precedent established by this incident: "[T]his is a criminal act of vandalism and of harassment of a group of scientists that are only going about their business doing science. It represents a whole new escalation in the war on climate scientists who are only trying to get at the truth... What next? Deliberate monkeying with data on servers? Insertion of bugs into climate models?" Another IPCC lead author, David Karoly of the University of Melbourne, reported receiving hate emails in the wake of the incident and said that he believed that there was "an organised campaign to discredit individual climate scientists". Andrew Pitman of the University of New South Wales commented: "The major problem is that scientists have to be able to communicate their science without fear or favour and there seems to be a well-orchestrated campaign designed to intimidate some scientists."'
Apparently, in internal communications, someone wrote "trick" for a method of presenting data, and the hackers assumed that meant like Uri Geller.
 
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Offline vad

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #123 on: July 14, 2023, 10:13:47 pm »
Yeah, I know how this story ended. The same scientists who were accused of wrongdoing took the investigation into their own hands and declared themselves innocent. And then they fact-checked their own claims.

Reminds me of scientists who recently claimed that a pangolin accidentally wandered from Malaysia to a Wuhan wet market, where it was bitten by a bat before being eaten raw by several Wuhan residents. This same group of scientists peer-reviewed their colleague's article and fact-checked it for media outlets, all while receiving overwhelming support from the WHO.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: the dark side of cobalt
« Reply #124 on: July 14, 2023, 10:21:09 pm »
Yeah, I know how this story ended. The same scientists who were accused of wrongdoing took the investigation into their own hands and declared themselves innocent. And then they fact-checked their own claims.

Er, no... it was quite the scandal at the time it came out, but there were numerous enquiries (including at least one led by a prominent right-winger, known to be climate change skeptical - Jim Inhofe) that all concluded there was nothing much there worth investigating.  You have some informal language like "applying a trick" that is misrepresented so many times by media but means very little other than applying a data processing technique.  I bet in 100,000 emails you could find something to make a conspiracy about everything, the fact that in those 100,000 emails they found at best four interesting things to support claims of a grand conspiracy is pretty telling IMO.
 


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