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| vad:
--- Quote from: tom66 on July 13, 2023, 08:01:50 am ---You can model the climate fairly accurately. … A significant increase in arctic tundra temperatures risks the release of methane from permafrost which would further trigger warming. Given methane has a 100yr GWP of about 20, it doesn't take much methane released to cause further warming, which could cause further warming and so on. Positive feedback loops like that are extremely concerning. --- End quote --- The hilarity ensues when the climate “scientists" claim with absolute certainty that they possess a marvelously accurate climate change model, only to turn around and sprinkle their statements with delightful little modal verbs "could" and "would" that hint at mere possibility rather than solid certainty... No, you do not have a reliable model that accounts for all the complexities and intertwined dependencies that affect the climate. You are unable to predict with certainty if methane will be released, whether Gulf Stream and other ocean currents will change and cool down Northern Europe, or the exact effects of sunlight reflection from greater cloud coverage caused by warmer and moister climate. You also cannot accurately model and predict the impact of greener vegetation in regions that are currently inhospitable to life, nor reliably predict increases in absorption of CO2 by plankton if the global ocean warms up. However, I can certainly predict that you can travel from a bone-chilling -50°C climate in Siberia to a scorching +45°C climate in Dubai in less than 24 hours and survive. Based on that observation, one might assume that humans can endure a +3°C average temperature rise over several generations. |
| Gyro:
--- Quote from: vad on July 14, 2023, 06:22:36 pm ---... However, I can certainly predict that you can travel from a bone-chilling -50°C climate in Siberia to a scorching +45°C climate in Dubai in less than 24 hours and survive. Based on that observation, one might assume that humans can endure a +3°C average temperature rise over several generations. --- End quote --- And their food supply? Edit: And to some extent, locally, their drinking water supply. |
| tom66:
--- Quote from: vad on July 14, 2023, 06:22:36 pm ---The hilarity ensues when the climate “scientists" claim with absolute certainty that they possess a marvelously accurate climate change model, only to turn around and sprinkle their statements with delightful little modal verbs "could" and "would" that hint at mere possibility rather than solid certainty... No, you do not have a reliable model that accounts for all the complexities and intertwined dependencies that affect the climate. You are unable to predict with certainty if methane will be released, whether Gulf Stream and other ocean currents will change and cool down Northern Europe, or the exact effects of sunlight reflection from greater cloud coverage caused by warmer and moister climate. You also cannot accurately model and predict the impact of greener vegetation in regions that are currently inhospitable to life, nor reliably predict increases in absorption of CO2 by plankton if the global ocean warms up. However, I can certainly predict that you can travel from a bone-chilling -50°C climate in Siberia to a scorching +45°C climate in Dubai in less than 24 hours and survive. Based on that observation, one might assume that humans can endure a +3°C average temperature rise over several generations. --- End quote --- I don't recall climate scientists ever saying with certainty that X will happen. It is usually stated that "it is more likely that X" will happen. Things like flood risk are a lot easier to analyse because based on average temperatures you can predict ice sheet melting and therefore sea level rise. Plug that into weather or tidal models and you have your answer. Peak temperatures can also be analysed: what happens when a high pressure event happens at location Z in June... ok, now add +Y W/m^2 additional forcing... now what does it look like? There's your "bad case" warming figures. The problem is high pressure events like that tend to stick around, so now what happens to crop yield when you have sustained 45C temperatures in a place that would normally see 35C? Also, even if you completely refuse to believe climate scientists and Greta, know that insurance companies (who are very interested in making correct long-term bets, see reinsurance for instance), are accounting for the significant potential harms of climate change. For instance, they're getting increasingly reluctant to insure new properties in the Fens in England. This is an area that was drained by Dutch engineers (by royal decree) in the late 1700s early 1800s, and the land sits only about 10 metres or so above sea level. The result is that these properties will eventually become uninsurable. Farmers are impacted too because a significant proportion of England's agriculture is based in this area. |
| TimFox:
One of many discussions of climate-induced migration (from the German government): https://www.bmz.de/en/issues/climate-change-and-development/migration-and-climate Macroscopic effects of warming such as drought and resulting desertification of the landscape are more important than packing a parka when flying north. |
| vad:
--- Quote --- In 2021 alone, extreme weather events led to the displacement of 23.7 million people. Most of these people return to their homes as soon as it is possible for them to do so. --- End quote --- I suppose a considerable portion of those 23.7 million individuals were Texas residents, many of whom temporarily abandoned their homes due to the blackout caused by the winter storm. Additionally, we can include hundreds of thousands of Californians who have opted to permanently relocate to other states, citing the state government's excessive emphasis on climate-related initiatives. |
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