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the dark side of cobalt
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nctnico:

--- Quote from: vad on July 14, 2023, 08:10:58 pm ---
--- Quote --- In 2021 alone, extreme weather events led to the displacement of 23.7 million people. Most of these people return to their homes as soon as it is possible for them to do so.
--- End quote ---
I suppose a considerable portion of those 23.7 million individuals were Texas residents, many of whom temporarily abandoned their homes due to the blackout caused by the winter storm. Additionally, we can include hundreds of thousands of Californians who have opted to permanently relocate to other states, citing the state government's excessive emphasis on climate-related initiatives.

--- End quote ---
IMHO it is not a good idea to use a limited set of data points as proof. Especially with something so random as weather. However, I have been alive long enough to notice a significant change in the climate. In my youth it was quite common for the small waters to freeze up so you could walk & ice skate on these during the winter. Nowadays it is super rare. Like once every 8 to 10 years. Summers have gotten different as well with dry winds coming from the north instead of humid air from the south or east.
vad:

--- Quote from: tom66 on July 14, 2023, 07:10:05 pm ---I don't recall climate scientists ever saying with certainty that X will happen.  It is usually stated that "it is more likely that X" will happen.
--- End quote ---

Oh, well, what a great confidence interval!

In comparison, in experimental physics, a widely accepted rule for acknowledging new discoveries is a 5σ threshold. This stringent criterion exists due to the many instances where claimed discoveries with sigma values between 3 and 4 failed to receive independent confirmation. Such discrepancies can be attributed to researcher bias.

In the medical, pharmaceutical, and health sciences field, 3σ is a norm, thanks to techniques like double-blind randomized controlled trials that help mitigate bias.

Based on what you are saying, it appears that in the realm of climate "science” 0.7σ is a norm. Coupled with significant bias stemming from political corruption, monetary incentives, and fear, any models originating from such sources can be considered as reliable as fortune-telling with a crystal ball.
tom66:

--- Quote from: vad on July 14, 2023, 08:40:14 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on July 14, 2023, 07:10:05 pm ---I don't recall climate scientists ever saying with certainty that X will happen.  It is usually stated that "it is more likely that X" will happen.
--- End quote ---

Oh, well, what a great confidence interval!

--- End quote ---

Before building a strawman to attack your opponent, have you actually READ some of what you claim to disagree with?

Page 20 is a good example:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

The confidence interval outcomes range from "bad" to "very, very bad" for situations like 3C warming, which current models suggest we are on the path towards.  (3C by 2050 or so.)

This is not a case of the outcomes ranging from "maybe nothing happens" to "bad" and you're hoping we're in the first category.  There is no projected outcome where nothing happens and things are all good.

Edit: most of the items in that document seem to be "high confidence" which is >9 in 10 chance of happening, or to a scientist, around 2-sigma or better.  A few items are "very high confidence" which is 3-sigma.
vad:

--- Quote from: tom66 on July 14, 2023, 07:10:05 pm ---The problem is high pressure events like that tend to stick around, so now what happens to crop yield when you have sustained 45C temperatures in a place that would normally see 35C?

--- End quote ---

Well, it's interesting to note that global crop yields have been increasing even as the global climate has been warming. I fail to observe any inverse correlation between the two.
TimFox:
Macroscopic indications of warming: the classic Dutch ice-skating marathon, started in 1909.
In the past 50 years, the Elfstedentocht has taken place only three times, most recently in 1997.
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