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the dark side of cobalt

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Siwastaja:

--- Quote from: vad on July 14, 2023, 08:47:50 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on July 14, 2023, 07:10:05 pm ---The problem is high pressure events like that tend to stick around, so now what happens to crop yield when you have sustained 45C temperatures in a place that would normally see 35C?

--- End quote ---

Well, it's interesting to note that global crop yields have been increasing even as the global climate has been warming. I fail to observe any inverse correlation between the two.

--- End quote ---

I checked, and this seems true. As the average temperature has already quite significantly increased, if it was true that further increase would quickly start hurting crop yields, some sort of signal should be already visible, but it's clearly not. There can be local consequences, but somewhere else the conditions will get better. One of the problem in climate discussion is that only negatives are discussed, while positives are being ignored; but many changes are actually net neutral; human is good at adapting. The relatively high speed of the changes is challenging, though.

Still, burning fossil fuels when better alternatives are available is extremely stupid, and playing around with the climate is a colossally bad idea exactly because of the we don't know for sure factor.

tom66:
Fertiliser technology, greater agronomist understanding and automation in agriculture (one farmer can do so much more) surely also has a significant impact on crop yields.

nctnico:

--- Quote from: tom66 on July 15, 2023, 08:23:35 am ---Fertiliser technology, greater agronomist understanding and automation in agriculture (one farmer can do so much more) surely also has a significant impact on crop yields.

--- End quote ---
Very true. Most of the agricultural land is not used to the maximum yield that can be obtained due to inefficient / archaic farming.

Zero999:

--- Quote from: nctnico on July 15, 2023, 10:15:58 am ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on July 15, 2023, 08:23:35 am ---Fertiliser technology, greater agronomist understanding and automation in agriculture (one farmer can do so much more) surely also has a significant impact on crop yields.

--- End quote ---
Very true. Most of the agricultural land is not used to the maximum yield that can be obtained due to inefficient / archaic farming.

--- End quote ---
If the climate warms further, it will increase the amount of land which can be farmed, rather than reduce it. The panic about famines is unfounded. Higher temperatures means land which is too cold can be turned over to agriculture and a longer growing season, will enable a greater range of crops and more food to be grown within a year. Higher global temperatures result in increased global precipitation, so deserts will on average shrink, increasing the arable land further.

Of course we should be careful about how our actions affect the environment, but we need to avoid policies which will over-react and adversely affect economic growth. The health of the general population is linked to economic wealth. Richer countries have longer life expectancies and the death rate always increases after an economic downturn.

nctnico:

--- Quote from: Zero999 on July 15, 2023, 11:29:15 am ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on July 15, 2023, 10:15:58 am ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on July 15, 2023, 08:23:35 am ---Fertiliser technology, greater agronomist understanding and automation in agriculture (one farmer can do so much more) surely also has a significant impact on crop yields.

--- End quote ---
Very true. Most of the agricultural land is not used to the maximum yield that can be obtained due to inefficient / archaic farming.

--- End quote ---
If the climate warms further, it will increase the amount of land which can be farmed, rather than reduce it. The panic about famines is unfounded. Higher temperatures means land which is too cold can be turned over to agriculture and a longer growing season,

--- End quote ---
No. And the simple reason is that land needs to be prepared before it can be farmed. You'll need roads, drainage canals, removing debris / vegetation. And some land (like tundras) might not be suitable at all because it basically is a swamp when unfrozen. It is much more economic to try and keep farm land than making new. In the NL there are numerous land reclamation projects which took place over the last few centuries and for those projects it took decades before the land was actually useable.

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