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| The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from? |
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| tom66:
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 18, 2020, 05:07:21 pm ---Now you focus purely on the drivetrain. If you look at the big picture an EV and ICE car are equally complicated. The complicated bit is just in different areas. For example: the cooling system of an ICE based car is much less complex compared to an EV which needs to actively cool and heat drive electronics and the battery pack. If you compile an entire list you'll see it will be equal. Also cars are engineered for a certain MTBF so all in all the overall reliability will be the same. --- End quote --- An ICE needs: - Exhaust systems - Emissions control systems - Various air/oil/fuel/transmission filters - A multispeed transmission, CVT, *and/or* hybrid system - A starter motor/alternator and battery supply for such (if not hybrid) - A turbo (on some models) - A radiator capable of dissipating >60kW for cruising speeds - A litany of engine sensors - Timing belts and belt driven water pumps - and so on None of that is needed by an EV. And modern EVs, including the Model 3, use a slightly more complex cooling system, sure. But even they have started using the EV motor to heat the coolant. The Model Y is slated to have 25% less wiring km than the Model 3, despite being a larger vehicle. I don't see how you can say EV and ICE are even remotely comparable in terms of complexity. |
| splin:
--- Quote from: nfmax on February 18, 2020, 10:43:46 am ---Don't forget 'Negawatts', ... latest issue of Drax Electric Insights (https://www.drax.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/200207_Drax_19Q4_Report_3.pdf) --- Quote ---The move towards condensing boilers means the efficiency of the UK’s gas boilers is improving over time, but too slowly to help with climate change. The average efficiency of gas heating has risen from 82% to 86% over the last decade, meaning that the carbon emissions from producing 1 kWh of central heating or hot water only fell from 225 grams in 2010 to 215 grams in 2019. In comparison, standard electric heating would have produced 500 grams of CO2 per kWh2 of heat delivered back at the start of the decade, more than double that from a gas boiler. As electricity production has shifted away from fossil fuels, Britain has reached the point where it is cleaner to use electric heating than a gas boiler for the first time ever. Averaged over 2019, simple electric heaters produced 207 grams of CO2 per kWh of heat. We would now have to blend 12% hydrogen (by volume) into the mains gas grid for Britain’s boilers to be as clean as simple electric radiators. --- End quote --- --- End quote --- Oh god help us - another load of 'experts' who don't understand the difference between average and marginal emissions! :palm: |O |O |O (Actually, I'm sure they do understand marginal emissions, but it doesn't suit the agenda/public message). Sorry but they are talking complete b*ll**ks! The average carbon intensity of the grid is irrelevant for this purpose; using averages is a statistical abuse. There is a relatively fixed amount of low carbon electricity feeding the UK grid from hydro, nuclear and biomass sources along with variable levels of wind and solar. But with rare exceptions, it is all much less than the total demand. You can't buy 'average emission electricity'; when you use, and thus purchase additional electricity from your supplier, you are effectively contracting with them to go to the market to buy enough new power to satisfy your new demand. They can't buy any more nuclear, wind or solar power (except in rare situations) - the only available sources are from dispatchable generators which are primarily gas and coal. (And just maybe, a little bit of biomass from Drax?) That means that if you were to switch 1MW of gas heating to electricity, the grid would have to supply that new 1MW load from mainly gas fired power stations, perhaps with some coal fired power (but not for much longer). CCGT emissions are currently running at arounf 470g CO2eq/kWh, WTW. That will change eventually when enough new wind and nuclear power has been added to the grid to displace most gas generation and make up for the nuclear stations which are to be decomissioned, but I can't see that happening for at least 15 years and probably a lot longer, but I could easily be wrong on that as government priorities can easily change radically over timescales > 5 years. So assuming we were to add, say, 5GW of new heating and EV load over the next 5 years. How long would it be before a significant amount of that (say 30%) is supplied by wind and solar over the course of a year? We have had a few weeks recently with surplus wind power at times of low demand (overnight), due to the storms but they are very much the exception, and overnight surplus is not useful for all users, such as EV users who can't recharge at home. Until that time that 5GW will have to be generated almost exclusively from CCGT at 470g/kWh. |
| tom66:
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 18, 2020, 06:44:06 pm ---That would mean repeating parts of several old threads. I suggest you read them carefully. Also get some actual numbers on hydrogen prices and electricity prices from public charging spots. --- End quote --- Hydrogen pricing is £10 per kg here, seems to be the same in the States roughly [1] A Mirai has a 5kg tank, so £50 to refuel. It goes less than 300 miles on that, but let's be generous and assume 300 miles. That's £0.15 per mile. I paid £0.15/kWh for public charging. But let's assume £0.39/kWh which is at the high end of expense. At 4.5 mile per kWh (e-Golf spec, and achievable in real world at 70 mph) that's £0.086/mile for even the most expensive EV charging station. If you pay £0.15/kWh then it's 3.3p per mile. If charging on domestic electricity at night at 7p/kWh then that's 1.6p/mile In the real world the cost of a vehicle is generally dominated by its deprecation rather than its fuel cost. [1] https://cafcp.org/content/cost-refill |
| ogden:
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 18, 2020, 06:44:06 pm --- --- Quote from: ogden on February 18, 2020, 06:42:00 pm --- --- Quote from: nctnico on February 18, 2020, 06:32:54 pm ---@ogden: that video has been debunked to dust several times already. :palm: --- End quote --- Fine. Show pointers to debunking instead of dumb facepalm. --- End quote --- That would mean repeating parts of several old threads. I suggest you read them carefully. Also get some actual numbers on hydrogen prices and electricity prices from public charging spots. --- End quote --- LOL. I provided info. If you say it is debunked - provide info in return so *everybody* here can see what you mean with "already debunked". Facepalming or mentioning unknown/obscure old threads is not enough. Give just link(s), do not do "repeating" or whatever you mean with that |
| nctnico:
--- Quote from: tom66 on February 18, 2020, 06:48:05 pm ---I don't see how you can say EV and ICE are even remotely comparable in terms of complexity. --- End quote --- That is your problem; perhaps you think all mechanical stuff is complex. All the items you listed are extremely simple mechanical systems which are well understood. Drive belts for example are known for at least 1000 years. @ogden: do your own homework instead of posting lame pictures which say nothing. |
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