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| The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from? |
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| kaz911:
--- Quote from: mikeselectricstuff on February 15, 2020, 10:50:21 am ---ISTR reading something recently from National Grid in the UK that consumption has been falling in the last few years due to energy saving lamps etc. Their TL;DR was that there is no significant problem nationally, though there may be some local distribution that needs beefing up. If & when V2G becomes a serious thing, EVs can help manage the grid more effectively. --- End quote --- Despite what the National Grid says Ofcom seems to have more to say: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/rewiring-britain-net-zero-future-ofgem-publishes-decarbonisation-action-plan My biggest worry is now they want to take out Gas for heating. I know it has pollution but that + EV's will require substantial increases in network capacity. Not only that - Gas prices have an annual increase of roughly 1-3% p.a. in price - where Electricity have shown 5-8% average annual increase in price. So the Joe UK Average (middle consumption) household today uses 12500 kWh gas and 3100 kWh electricity - today costs roughly GBP 303.75 for gas and GBP 397.42 for electricity. In 2050 if trends continues like it has - Joe Average will pay GBP 550.20 for Gas and GBP 1,717.63 for electricity. Now if Joe Average changed to heat pump in 2025 - with an average COP of roughly 4 (and gas was 100% efficient) - his 12500 kWh gas would turn into 3250 kWh electricity consumption added to his normal. That is equal to about a doubling of Joe Averages Electricity consumption (Without an EV) - so that means his total in 2050 will be GBP 3449.10 vs GBP 2267.83 if he had continued with gas. So is the public ready for a 50% increase in price over the next 30 years - just because of switching Gas off? And will the network ready for a 100% increase in electricity consumption + EV's? I'm not 100% certain about the above figures - but let me know if you disagree or where I have made my mistakes. Prices are based on my today rate averaged out for standing rates incl. VAT. |
| tom66:
Joe Average is going to have to pay the cost one way or another. The problem is we have gorged for too long on cheap fossil fuels without considering the environmental consequences. Hopefully Joe Average will be able to get grants and subsidies to pay for proper insulation. The state of insulation in most UK housing stock is dreadful. If a house is constructed with Passivehaus type insulation, it can be heated with a 1kW electric air heater for the entire home, which typically only operates on days <3'C or less. Heat produced by humans and domestic appliances, lighting, etc is otherwise sufficient to keep the house at 20'C, as well as keep the heat out in summer. An air-source heat pump would be even more efficient, and could offer air conditioning facilities too. Re hydrogen, I think the biggest area hydrogen makes sense in is long distance trucks. A Tesla Semi looks likely to have a 1MWh battery pack - weighing 5 tonnes on board - if that were a fuel cell and tanks, then the weight penalty would be much smaller. Also, semi trucks tend to make trips that start at one depot (which could have an on-site filling station) and travel on motorway routes, so the infrastructure is easier and cheaper to build out. The vast majority of people won't travel more than 200 miles in one day. If the rate of charge speed acceleration keeps up, with the Taycan capable of 170 miles in 5 minutes charging, we'll have EVs that can match the convenience and range of a fuel-powered car. |
| kaz911:
--- Quote from: tom66 on February 19, 2020, 06:14:39 pm ---Joe Average is going to have to pay the cost one way or another. The problem is we have gorged for too long on cheap fossil fuels without considering the environmental consequences. Hopefully Joe Average will be able to get grants and subsidies to pay for proper insulation. The state of insulation in most UK housing stock is dreadful. If a house is constructed with Passivehaus type insulation, it can be heated with a 1kW electric air heater for the entire home, which typically only operates on days <3'C or less. Heat produced by humans and domestic appliances, lighting, etc is otherwise sufficient to keep the house at 20'C, as well as keep the heat out in summer. An air-source heat pump would be even more efficient, and could offer air conditioning facilities too. --- End quote --- The UK building standards are not very high in general - I do agree with that. Tiles on wooden floors.... :-DD in most bathrooms I have seen.... Anyway - with the NetZero campaign - we need to double the electricity network capacity + have space for EV's. How much Co2 will that cost? Then add production costs of all the insulation and refurb of properties. Again it will cost on the CO2 scale. I think it is important to be pragmatic. Some things we can't change in 30 years. I calculated on my Honda Jazz (2009) - I drive maybe 2000 miles a year. If I got a Tesla - I would loose 0.5-1% battery a day from phantom drain. (unless I fizzle around with 3rd party apps to extend and disable features) So that is 2-4 miles per day roughly. So equivalent to 1460-2920 miles driven a year. Does that make any sense? That is power right out the window. I really really want an electric car - but the more I calculate the more I would look like a mega-polluter vs. keeping my 2009 Honda Jazz. Yes I would look great in an electric car - and people would pad be on my back for being so climate/environment friendly - but on the inside I know my driving habits would make me a giga CO2 polluter. By purchasing it I just threw out 70.000-100.000 km's worth of CO2 and there is no way in my lifetime I would be able to recoup the CO2 spent on making my electric car. But I would look good driving it. So this is what I mean - the pragmatism needs to be included in the policies. |
| nctnico:
--- Quote from: tom66 on February 19, 2020, 06:14:39 pm ---Joe Average is going to have to pay the cost one way or another. The problem is we have gorged for too long on cheap fossil fuels without considering the environmental consequences. Hopefully Joe Average will be able to get grants and subsidies to pay for proper insulation. The state of insulation in most UK housing stock is dreadful. --- End quote --- An expert on insulation I know has run the numbers. Older homes (over here before the 90's) will need to stick to gas heating because insulating them is just not financially viable. It is not just a matter of putting insulation on the outside of older homes but there will also need to be a ventilation system to manage the humidity. It basically means remodelling an entire house. --- Quote ---Re hydrogen, I think the biggest area hydrogen makes sense in is long distance trucks. --- End quote --- And busses. But now think a bit further... if you need to put a hydrogen infrastructure in place anyway then why not use it for cars too? There is no use for having two very expensive pieces of infrastructure in parallel which serve the same goal. In the end hydrogen is way more universal. You can also use it to heat the homes. In the Netherlands the country wide natural network of natural gas pipes is also suitable for hydrogen. Some Dutch manufacturers of gas heaters have already developed hydrogen models which are currently being field tested. |
| ogden:
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 19, 2020, 10:10:45 am ---The prices I listed are the reality for the people not being able to charge from their own socket. --- End quote --- So you say that people who are not able to get their own socket next to car parking can afford Toyota Mirai for 78.600,00 € (.de price including VAT). --- Quote ---And in the end nobody cares about efficiency. It is all about costs. --- End quote --- Yes. Those two are related, didn't you know? :palm: p.s. Seems, you gave-up debunking my claim that hydrogen + fuel cells are less efficient storage of energy compared to batteries? Lame shifting of goalposts instead? LOL |
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