Author Topic: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?  (Read 15532 times)

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Offline Neilm

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #25 on: February 14, 2020, 05:04:22 pm »
A few Teslas on a street, each charging at say 20kW (which itself needs an upgraded feed to the house, probably 3 phase) and the transformer at the end of the street will blow up :) So there is no way EV will work for serious commuters.
I have just bought a Tesla Model 3. Installed a 7 kW charger on my house. Park my car in front and plug in each night. It takes about 4 hours to charge the car for my commute each day. Total commute distance, just under 100 miles.

Before I bought it, I calculated that I could plug into an ordinary 3 pin outlet and it would charge the car although I would have to start charging as soon as I get home.

If I have gone to see my reletives (150 miles each way) plugging the 3 pin overnight certainly gets enough range to get home again comfortably.
[edit]
I saw an interview with a representative from some electrical generation company. They noted that the total demand on the grid in the UK had gone down over the last decade or so. The estimates of the total power EVs would use would push it back up to where it was then, so there would be no issue with the distribuition. The use of smart charging to regulate the demand could be used to flatten the peaks in the demand.

I think that interview was at Fully Charged Live last year, but I can't find it with a quick look.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 05:09:00 pm by Neilm »
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Offline DBecker

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #26 on: February 14, 2020, 05:34:17 pm »
This is such a non-issue that grid-load-sensitive charging is on a slow development cycle.

Most residential EV charging already happens overnight, when the rates and load are lowest.

We have both solar and EVs.  Our net energy use is still positive, but we are providing power to the grid during peak times rather than being part of the load as we were five years ago.  Chopping off the peaks and filling the valleys is a huge benefit to the power grid, and it's happening widely enough to eliminate the need for infrastructure expansion.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2020, 05:45:13 pm »
I haven’t heard of any plans from any governments anywhere about building new capacity for electrical power to replace the energy currently supplied by automobile gasoline,

Probably because there isn't any. What makes you think that governments have long-term plans for everything? ;D (or for anything)

Maybe it'll all come from the Moon or something, given how getting there again is becoming a thing.

Jokes aside, there are a few hints already to partially answer your question: if electric vehicles become the norm (which is likely at this point, although not 100% certain), it's very likely that a lot fewer people will own individual vehicles, so the overall energy consumption for transport should decrease. This is rather sad, knowing that individual transport was an essential tool of individual freedom (IMO), but this trend is already there. So if there is any "plan" (which I don't think there is, at least not any precise plan), I think it's probably this: drastically decreasing the use of individual transport over time. That may not be something many of us want to hear, but yeah. If it's not an actual plan, it will just be a natural consequence.

« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 05:46:47 pm by SiliconWizard »
 
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Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2020, 05:52:35 pm »
This is such a non-issue that grid-load-sensitive charging is on a slow development cycle.
Welll... as it happens an article got published today saying that the public charging points in Amsterdam are providing less power between 18:00 and 21:00 to prevent overloading the grid. And this is with just a handful of electric cars.
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Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2020, 05:55:03 pm »
This is such a non-issue that grid-load-sensitive charging is on a slow development cycle.
Welll... as it happens an article got published today saying that the public charging points in Amsterdam are providing less power between 18:00 and 21:00 to prevent overloading the grid. And this is with just a handful of electric cars.

Of course. Most grids already get easily overloaded during winter at some hours due to heating, and in summer due to air conditioning. This isn't going to get any better if we draw even more power without adding significant production. How can anyone deny that? ::)
 

Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2020, 06:04:17 pm »
This is such a non-issue that grid-load-sensitive charging is on a slow development cycle.
Welll... as it happens an article got published today saying that the public charging points in Amsterdam are providing less power between 18:00 and 21:00 to prevent overloading the grid. And this is with just a handful of electric cars.
Of course. Most grids already get easily overloaded during winter at some hours due to heating, and in summer due to air conditioning. This isn't going to get any better if we draw even more power without adding significant production. How can anyone deny that? ::)
Well... in Amsterdam most homes are heated with natural gas. And this is not a production problem but a distribution (wiring) problem.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 06:06:31 pm by nctnico »
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Online bdunham7

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2020, 06:16:02 pm »
It is always amusing to see people running numbers and so forth to show how something just won't be practical when in fact some of us have been doing it for years.  Here in SoCal, EVs and solar power work just fine and it doesn't seem likely that there will be any need for infrastructure changes to accommodate future EV growth.  I fully understand the problems faced in other areas related to grid capacity, climate, space, etc.   EVs won't work everywhere for everybody--but they don't have to.  The answer to the OPs question is that EV adoption is likely to take several decades and even then won't be a 100% conversion. There will be plenty of time to make changes if they are necessary.

As for the exact source of the extra power, the easiest solution is to use the excess overnight capacity that exists almost everywhere.  That alone will suffice for any imaginable EV expansion here for quite some time.
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Offline Marco

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2020, 06:32:54 pm »
"Needed"? How about changing our lifestyle. Start by decentralising and stop consuming so much.
Capitalism creates discipline and I don't think we can abandon it on the scale needed without falling into chaos, especially in a democracy. Continuing civilization for much longer is turning out to be an intractable problem and climate change is the least of the worries.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 06:34:48 pm by Marco »
 

Online tom66

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2020, 06:45:49 pm »
The immediate issue is distribution at street level.

A few Teslas on a street, each charging at say 20kW (which itself needs an upgraded feed to the house, probably 3 phase) and the transformer at the end of the street will blow up :) So there is no way EV will work for serious commuters.

20kW charging is really unusual for domestic EV charging.  My PHEV has a 16A charger, i.e. 3.6kW.  A bigger pure-EV car might have a 7.2kW onboard charger; some cars have 16A 3ph chargers which support up to 11kW but as you state would need 3ph.  Most EV users will be perfectly cared for by a 7.2kW supply and indeed many will be fine on a 3.6kW charger.

The average UK commute is about 20 miles, assume both ways have to be covered by EV charging then 40 miles of range will require around 10kWh of energy to provide (4 mi/kWh).  That can be done in under an hour and a half on a 7kW supply and within 3 hours on a 3.6kW one.

I think it's likely we'll need spot upgrades of the DNO network in places as the assumption is generally 6kW average per home, but likely only on crowded older estates. 

New UK homes are also to be built with 3 ph supply directly which should help.  Old UK homes generally have 80A or 100A 1ph supply;  some homes are stuck on 60/63A feeds which will likely need upgrades as 32A car chargers are installed.

EVs will work for little cars doing short journeys, and a lot of people do that. What we don't know is how many people are willing to limit themselves to a little runabout vehicle, with little or no heating or aircon, when everything suggests people want the opposite. They could also run a big car like a Tesla but again only if they don't drive it much.

Well I do try to maximise the EV-only range on my PHEV but still use heating and air con.  As EVs become more commonplace they will start to look and drive more like normal cars.  Cars like the e-208/Corsa-e and e-Golf show that manufacturers are still interested in making "normal cars that happen to be electric".  Which really is what we need, not weirdmobiles like the Leaf and Peugeot iOn.

And as Tesla has shown, there's a large market for luxury/high-end vehicles that are electric.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 06:48:01 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline benst

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2020, 06:50:37 pm »
I have seen arguments that the conversion to EV's will actually lower the total power consumption. This is because to refine 1 liter of gasoline, it takes between 2 .. 5 kWh of electrical power. (Numbers I found online vary wildly, unfortunately.) There are some huge power plants next to the oil refineries here on the Maasvlakte in the Netherlands, for example.

Assuming a new EV replaces an ICE car, and assuming it takes 3.5 kWh to refine 1 l of gasoline, this means that:

  • The EV at (say) 150 Wh/km would go for 23.3 km on that 3.5 kWh used to refine 1 l of gasoline.
  • The ICE car at (say) 7.5 l / 100 km would go for only 13.3 km on 1 l. (plus it would use the 3.5 kWh also.)

Lots of assumption here, I know. Only part of the puzzle, but interesting. I do not think that generating power for all those EV's is the problem. Distributing it and making it conveniently accessible is.

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Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #35 on: February 14, 2020, 07:47:33 pm »
But how does that stack up against all the extra energy needed for the batteries of an EV? Mining and processing the materials isn't happening by itself and the energy required will need to be generated as well. Well to wheel analysis show an EV has quite a large CO2 footprint to produce.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 07:49:45 pm by nctnico »
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Offline DBecker

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #36 on: February 14, 2020, 07:48:58 pm »
This is such a non-issue that grid-load-sensitive charging is on a slow development cycle.
Welll... as it happens an article got published today saying that the public charging points in Amsterdam are providing less power between 18:00 and 21:00 to prevent overloading the grid. And this is with just a handful of electric cars.

That's my point.  A fixed time schedule is *not* load sensitive.  Just setting a fixed time period is good enough.  There isn't a pressing need to communicate real-time load information.

The crude load-shedding (A/C and water heater off) schemes of decades past initially sounded as if they would directly apply to EV charging schedules.  But they aren't really in the same category as routine EV charging, which is easily done in the middle of the night when load-shedding isn't needed.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #37 on: February 14, 2020, 07:51:40 pm »
This is such a non-issue that grid-load-sensitive charging is on a slow development cycle.
Welll... as it happens an article got published today saying that the public charging points in Amsterdam are providing less power between 18:00 and 21:00 to prevent overloading the grid. And this is with just a handful of electric cars.
That's my point.  A fixed time schedule is *not* load sensitive.  Just setting a fixed time period is good enough.  There isn't a pressing need to communicate real-time load information.
No. You are making false assumptions. The public charging points in Amsterdam are dynamically / realtime configured based on the amount of energy the local grid can deliver. The 18:00 to 21:00 time frame is standard but it can be changed if necessary. And more places are going to follow simply because it is necessary.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 07:53:56 pm by nctnico »
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Offline benst

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #38 on: February 14, 2020, 08:06:38 pm »
But how does that stack up against all the extra energy needed for the batteries of an EV? Mining and processing the materials isn't happening by itself and the energy required will need to be generated as well. Well to wheel analysis show an EV has quite a large CO2 footprint to produce.
  • You're moving the goal posts. That was not the OP's question.
  • Various studies have been done on this subject, of course. I remember one by TNO (an independent research institute in the Netherlands) and the conclusion was that a battery EV had a much lower CO2 footprint during its lifecycle. It was 4 or 5 years ago, so by now it should be even better.

Edit: here is that report (only in Dutch available): http://publications.tno.nl/publication/34616575/gS20vf/TNO-2015-R10386.pdf

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« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 08:10:02 pm by benst »
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Online tom66

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #39 on: February 14, 2020, 08:38:13 pm »
No. You are making false assumptions. The public charging points in Amsterdam are dynamically / realtime configured based on the amount of energy the local grid can deliver. The 18:00 to 21:00 time frame is standard but it can be changed if necessary. And more places are going to follow simply because it is necessary.

And that's fine.  Most public AC charging is opportunity based.  Charging while visiting the shops or eating at a restaurant.  During which time you can put 30-50 miles of range on your car, enough for PHEV to get home, or an EV user to get to a rapid charger or reduce the time spent charging at home. 

Visit a rapid charger if you want to be assured that it will charge quickly.  Those will not be throttled because they are generally (at least >50kW units) connected directly to the local high voltage grid (11~33kV) which has huge excess capacity inside towns and cities.

EV use requires a different mode of thinking but once you figure it out, it really is at least as convenient if not more convenient than owning a petrol car.  I haven't visited a petrol station in 1 month.  I started with 5/8th of a petrol tank, now I have just under 1/2.  So it should last another month until my next long trip when I will start burning petrol again.  My car just charges overnight or I make sure that I can stop for an hour or two at my destinations. 
 

Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #40 on: February 14, 2020, 08:47:00 pm »
No. You are making false assumptions. The public charging points in Amsterdam are dynamically / realtime configured based on the amount of energy the local grid can deliver. The 18:00 to 21:00 time frame is standard but it can be changed if necessary. And more places are going to follow simply because it is necessary.

And that's fine.  Most public AC charging is opportunity based.  Charging while visiting the shops or eating at a restaurant. 
No. Not in Amsterdam where people have no private parking space at all.
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Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #41 on: February 14, 2020, 08:49:45 pm »
But how does that stack up against all the extra energy needed for the batteries of an EV? Mining and processing the materials isn't happening by itself and the energy required will need to be generated as well. Well to wheel analysis show an EV has quite a large CO2 footprint to produce.
  • You're moving the goal posts. That was not the OP's question.
  • Various studies have been done on this subject, of course. I remember one by TNO (an independent research institute in the Netherlands) and the conclusion was that a battery EV had a much lower CO2 footprint during its lifecycle. It was 4 or 5 years ago, so by now it should be even better.
That depends entirely on how much you drive with your EV. Various well to wheel studies show you need to drive between 50k km and 225k km to break even with an EV compared to similar sized cars. The simple conclusion is that an EV isn't reducing CO2 emissions straight away. And it isn't moving goal posts entirely. EVs need to be built at some point and that does take energy as well. Apples and oranges both grow on trees.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 08:59:49 pm by nctnico »
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Offline benst

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #42 on: February 14, 2020, 09:11:53 pm »
But how does that stack up against all the extra energy needed for the batteries of an EV? Mining and processing the materials isn't happening by itself and the energy required will need to be generated as well. Well to wheel analysis show an EV has quite a large CO2 footprint to produce.
  • You're moving the goal posts. That was not the OP's question.
  • Various studies have been done on this subject, of course. I remember one by TNO (an independent research institute in the Netherlands) and the conclusion was that a battery EV had a much lower CO2 footprint during its lifecycle. It was 4 or 5 years ago, so by now it should be even better.
That depends entirely on how much you drive with your EV. Various well to wheel studies show you need to drive between 50k km and 225k km to break even with an EV compared to similar sized cars. The simple conclusion is that an EV isn't reducing CO2 emissions straight away. And it isn't moving goal posts entirely. EVs need to be built at some point and that does take energy as well. Apples and oranges both grow on trees.
The conclusion isn’t simple. Read the report I linked in my original message. It calculated the lifecycle cost.

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Offline benst

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2020, 09:15:09 pm »
No. You are making false assumptions. The public charging points in Amsterdam are dynamically / realtime configured based on the amount of energy the local grid can deliver. The 18:00 to 21:00 time frame is standard but it can be changed if necessary. And more places are going to follow simply because it is necessary.

And that's fine.  Most public AC charging is opportunity based.  Charging while visiting the shops or eating at a restaurant. 
No. Not in Amsterdam where people have no private parking space at all.

So, problem solved, yes?

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Online Bud

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #44 on: February 14, 2020, 09:22:48 pm »
Visit a rapid charger if you want to be assured that it will charge quickly.  Those will not be throttled because they are generally (at least >50kW units) connected directly to the local high voltage grid (11~33kV) which has huge excess capacity inside towns and cities.
They may not be throttled by the grid but they will be throttled by Tesla. I remember seeing an article Tesla said rapid charger abusers will be banned from rapid chargers.
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Online nctnico

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2020, 10:15:11 pm »
The simple conclusion is that an EV isn't reducing CO2 emissions straight away. And it isn't moving goal posts entirely. EVs need to be built at some point and that does take energy as well. Apples and oranges both grow on trees.
The conclusion isn’t simple. Read the report I linked in my original message. It calculated the lifecycle cost.
The conclusion is very simple. I have read and seen various similar reports with different outcomes. But they all come down to the same conclusion albeit with a different distance to a break even point. Note that many of these reports are written towards a certain outcome so you have to take a whole bunch of them to get somewhere near the truth.

No. Not in Amsterdam where people have no private parking space at all.
So, problem solved, yes?
No. Not by a long shot. I can't read the full article because it is behind a pay-wall  https://www.ad.nl/auto/vermogen-elektrische-laadpalen-omlaag-anders-stad-op-zwart~a1878199/ but it says in the headline that one EV equals to 10 households where it comes to electricity consumption. That is far worse than I expected.

« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 10:17:03 pm by nctnico »
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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2020, 10:16:57 pm »
No. You are making false assumptions. The public charging points in Amsterdam are dynamically / realtime configured based on the amount of energy the local grid can deliver. The 18:00 to 21:00 time frame is standard but it can be changed if necessary. And more places are going to follow simply because it is necessary.

And that's fine.  Most public AC charging is opportunity based.  Charging while visiting the shops or eating at a restaurant.  During which time you can put 30-50 miles of range on your car, enough for PHEV to get home, or an EV user to get to a rapid charger or reduce the time spent charging at home. 

Visit a rapid charger if you want to be assured that it will charge quickly.  Those will not be throttled because they are generally (at least >50kW units) connected directly to the local high voltage grid (11~33kV) which has huge excess capacity inside towns and cities.

EV use requires a different mode of thinking but once you figure it out, it really is at least as convenient if not more convenient than owning a petrol car.  I haven't visited a petrol station in 1 month.  I started with 5/8th of a petrol tank, now I have just under 1/2.  So it should last another month until my next long trip when I will start burning petrol again.  My car just charges overnight or I make sure that I can stop for an hour or two at my destinations.
Dont bother with realistic/generallised arguments that electric cars work for the majority of people. nctnico will endlessly come up with corner cases and "positions" that cannot be solved. As above:
EVs won't work everywhere for everybody--but they don't have to.  The answer to the OPs question is that EV adoption is likely to take several decades and even then won't be a 100% conversion. There will be plenty of time to make changes if they are necessary.
 

Offline benst

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2020, 10:30:42 pm »
The simple conclusion is that an EV isn't reducing CO2 emissions straight away. And it isn't moving goal posts entirely. EVs need to be built at some point and that does take energy as well. Apples and oranges both grow on trees.
The conclusion isn’t simple. Read the report I linked in my original message. It calculated the lifecycle cost.
The conclusion is very simple. I have read and seen various similar reports with different outcomes. But they all come down to the same conclusion albeit with a different distance to a break even point. Note that many of these reports are written towards a certain outcome so you have to take a whole bunch of them to get somewhere near the truth.

Again, not comparing break-even but total lifecycle. Break even doesn’t matter. (And will only get better.)

No. Not in Amsterdam where people have no private parking space at all.
So, problem solved, yes?
No. Not by a long shot. I can't read the full article because it is behind a pay-wall  https://www.ad.nl/auto/vermogen-elektrische-laadpalen-omlaag-anders-stad-op-zwart~a1878199/ but it says in the headline that one EV equals to 10 households where it comes to electricity consumption. That is far worse than I expected.

That article is based on a press statement from elaad.nl, a company selling these smart charging solutions. If you searched for 5 seconds you would have found the original press release here: https://www.elaad.nl/news/persbericht-innovatie-maakt-laadpalen-sociaal-en-voorkomt-stroomstoringen/
(F)Actual data is is totally absent. I did find some numbers elsewhere for average yearly household use in the Netherlands though: 2830 kWh. A car drives on average around 15000 km/y, so that’s around 2250 kWh. So the numbers are similar and do not differ by an order of magnitude. On average.

Ben
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Offline Someone

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #48 on: February 14, 2020, 10:34:52 pm »
I have seen arguments that the conversion to EV's will actually lower the total power consumption. This is because to refine 1 liter of gasoline, it takes between 2 .. 5 kWh of electrical power. (Numbers I found online vary wildly, unfortunately.) There are some huge power plants next to the oil refineries here on the Maasvlakte in the Netherlands, for example.

Assuming a new EV replaces an ICE car, and assuming it takes 3.5 kWh to refine 1 l of gasoline, this means that:

Lots of assumption here, I know. Only part of the puzzle, but interesting. I do not think that generating power for all those EV's is the problem. Distributing it and making it conveniently accessible is.
This is wildly out, well to pump efficiencies of petroleum are around 80% and upwards, much of the energy to drive that process is "waste" byproducts of the process its self. You could make a pure electricity equivalent but that falls into the same trap as the car powered by petrol vs person walking powered by imported high emboldened energy foodstuff that happens to use a lot of petrol. Power plants co-located with refineries are because there is a large stream of low value/cost oil (by)products.
 

Offline benst

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Re: The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
« Reply #49 on: February 14, 2020, 10:39:31 pm »
I have seen arguments that the conversion to EV's will actually lower the total power consumption. This is because to refine 1 liter of gasoline, it takes between 2 .. 5 kWh of electrical power. (Numbers I found online vary wildly, unfortunately.) There are some huge power plants next to the oil refineries here on the Maasvlakte in the Netherlands, for example.

Assuming a new EV replaces an ICE car, and assuming it takes 3.5 kWh to refine 1 l of gasoline, this means that:

Lots of assumption here, I know. Only part of the puzzle, but interesting. I do not think that generating power for all those EV's is the problem. Distributing it and making it conveniently accessible is.
This is wildly out, well to pump efficiencies of petroleum are around 80% and upwards, much of the energy to drive that process is "waste" byproducts of the process its self. You could make a pure electricity equivalent but that falls into the same trap as the car powered by petrol vs person walking powered by imported high emboldened energy foodstuff that happens to use a lot of petrol. Power plants co-located with refineries are because there is a large stream of low value/cost oil (by)products.

Not sure we're talking about the same thing? The power plants I mentioned are needed to power the refineries. Some are coal powered, some natural gas. Not byproducts of the process at all.

Ben
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