General > General Technical Chat
The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?
nctnico:
--- Quote from: benst on February 14, 2020, 09:11:53 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 08:49:45 pm ---The simple conclusion is that an EV isn't reducing CO2 emissions straight away. And it isn't moving goal posts entirely. EVs need to be built at some point and that does take energy as well. Apples and oranges both grow on trees.
--- End quote ---
The conclusion isn’t simple. Read the report I linked in my original message. It calculated the lifecycle cost.
--- End quote ---
The conclusion is very simple. I have read and seen various similar reports with different outcomes. But they all come down to the same conclusion albeit with a different distance to a break even point. Note that many of these reports are written towards a certain outcome so you have to take a whole bunch of them to get somewhere near the truth.
--- Quote from: benst on February 14, 2020, 09:15:09 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 08:47:00 pm ---No. Not in Amsterdam where people have no private parking space at all.
--- End quote ---
So, problem solved, yes?
--- End quote ---
No. Not by a long shot. I can't read the full article because it is behind a pay-wall https://www.ad.nl/auto/vermogen-elektrische-laadpalen-omlaag-anders-stad-op-zwart~a1878199/ but it says in the headline that one EV equals to 10 households where it comes to electricity consumption. That is far worse than I expected.
Someone:
--- Quote from: tom66 on February 14, 2020, 08:38:13 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 07:51:40 pm ---No. You are making false assumptions. The public charging points in Amsterdam are dynamically / realtime configured based on the amount of energy the local grid can deliver. The 18:00 to 21:00 time frame is standard but it can be changed if necessary. And more places are going to follow simply because it is necessary.
--- End quote ---
And that's fine. Most public AC charging is opportunity based. Charging while visiting the shops or eating at a restaurant. During which time you can put 30-50 miles of range on your car, enough for PHEV to get home, or an EV user to get to a rapid charger or reduce the time spent charging at home.
Visit a rapid charger if you want to be assured that it will charge quickly. Those will not be throttled because they are generally (at least >50kW units) connected directly to the local high voltage grid (11~33kV) which has huge excess capacity inside towns and cities.
EV use requires a different mode of thinking but once you figure it out, it really is at least as convenient if not more convenient than owning a petrol car. I haven't visited a petrol station in 1 month. I started with 5/8th of a petrol tank, now I have just under 1/2. So it should last another month until my next long trip when I will start burning petrol again. My car just charges overnight or I make sure that I can stop for an hour or two at my destinations.
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Dont bother with realistic/generallised arguments that electric cars work for the majority of people. nctnico will endlessly come up with corner cases and "positions" that cannot be solved. As above:
--- Quote from: bdunham7 on February 14, 2020, 06:16:02 pm ---EVs won't work everywhere for everybody--but they don't have to. The answer to the OPs question is that EV adoption is likely to take several decades and even then won't be a 100% conversion. There will be plenty of time to make changes if they are necessary.
--- End quote ---
benst:
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 10:15:11 pm ---
--- Quote from: benst on February 14, 2020, 09:11:53 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 08:49:45 pm ---The simple conclusion is that an EV isn't reducing CO2 emissions straight away. And it isn't moving goal posts entirely. EVs need to be built at some point and that does take energy as well. Apples and oranges both grow on trees.
--- End quote ---
The conclusion isn’t simple. Read the report I linked in my original message. It calculated the lifecycle cost.
--- End quote ---
The conclusion is very simple. I have read and seen various similar reports with different outcomes. But they all come down to the same conclusion albeit with a different distance to a break even point. Note that many of these reports are written towards a certain outcome so you have to take a whole bunch of them to get somewhere near the truth.
--- End quote ---
Again, not comparing break-even but total lifecycle. Break even doesn’t matter. (And will only get better.)
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 10:15:11 pm ---
--- Quote from: benst on February 14, 2020, 09:15:09 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 14, 2020, 08:47:00 pm ---No. Not in Amsterdam where people have no private parking space at all.
--- End quote ---
So, problem solved, yes?
--- End quote ---
No. Not by a long shot. I can't read the full article because it is behind a pay-wall https://www.ad.nl/auto/vermogen-elektrische-laadpalen-omlaag-anders-stad-op-zwart~a1878199/ but it says in the headline that one EV equals to 10 households where it comes to electricity consumption. That is far worse than I expected.
--- End quote ---
That article is based on a press statement from elaad.nl, a company selling these smart charging solutions. If you searched for 5 seconds you would have found the original press release here: https://www.elaad.nl/news/persbericht-innovatie-maakt-laadpalen-sociaal-en-voorkomt-stroomstoringen/
(F)Actual data is is totally absent. I did find some numbers elsewhere for average yearly household use in the Netherlands though: 2830 kWh. A car drives on average around 15000 km/y, so that’s around 2250 kWh. So the numbers are similar and do not differ by an order of magnitude. On average.
Ben
Someone:
--- Quote from: benst on February 14, 2020, 06:50:37 pm ---I have seen arguments that the conversion to EV's will actually lower the total power consumption. This is because to refine 1 liter of gasoline, it takes between 2 .. 5 kWh of electrical power. (Numbers I found online vary wildly, unfortunately.) There are some huge power plants next to the oil refineries here on the Maasvlakte in the Netherlands, for example.
Assuming a new EV replaces an ICE car, and assuming it takes 3.5 kWh to refine 1 l of gasoline, this means that:
Lots of assumption here, I know. Only part of the puzzle, but interesting. I do not think that generating power for all those EV's is the problem. Distributing it and making it conveniently accessible is.
--- End quote ---
This is wildly out, well to pump efficiencies of petroleum are around 80% and upwards, much of the energy to drive that process is "waste" byproducts of the process its self. You could make a pure electricity equivalent but that falls into the same trap as the car powered by petrol vs person walking powered by imported high emboldened energy foodstuff that happens to use a lot of petrol. Power plants co-located with refineries are because there is a large stream of low value/cost oil (by)products.
benst:
--- Quote from: Someone on February 14, 2020, 10:34:52 pm ---
--- Quote from: benst on February 14, 2020, 06:50:37 pm ---I have seen arguments that the conversion to EV's will actually lower the total power consumption. This is because to refine 1 liter of gasoline, it takes between 2 .. 5 kWh of electrical power. (Numbers I found online vary wildly, unfortunately.) There are some huge power plants next to the oil refineries here on the Maasvlakte in the Netherlands, for example.
Assuming a new EV replaces an ICE car, and assuming it takes 3.5 kWh to refine 1 l of gasoline, this means that:
Lots of assumption here, I know. Only part of the puzzle, but interesting. I do not think that generating power for all those EV's is the problem. Distributing it and making it conveniently accessible is.
--- End quote ---
This is wildly out, well to pump efficiencies of petroleum are around 80% and upwards, much of the energy to drive that process is "waste" byproducts of the process its self. You could make a pure electricity equivalent but that falls into the same trap as the car powered by petrol vs person walking powered by imported high emboldened energy foodstuff that happens to use a lot of petrol. Power plants co-located with refineries are because there is a large stream of low value/cost oil (by)products.
--- End quote ---
Not sure we're talking about the same thing? The power plants I mentioned are needed to power the refineries. Some are coal powered, some natural gas. Not byproducts of the process at all.
Ben
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