The Electric Vehicle Future: Where is all the power going to come from?

[BravoV]

Seeing a lot of "Netherland" or "Amsterdam" words in this discussion, are these places, considered as the "ideal" reference for this particular topic of discussion ? 

[Karel]

Seeing a lot of "Netherland" or "Amsterdam" words in this discussion, are these places, considered as the "ideal" reference for this particular topic of discussion ? 

Can you be more specific about what the "ideal" reference should be?

And why are you asking? You think it's not?

[nctnico]

Seeing a lot of "Netherland" or "Amsterdam" words in this discussion, are these places, considered as the "ideal" reference for this particular topic of discussion ? 

Yes because (together with Norway) the Netherlands is furtest ahead with adoption of EVs. So the challenges 'we' have here will pop up somewhere else too. Perhaps the Netherlands is even a better blueprint compared to Norway because the Netherlands doesn't have a large source of renewable electricity (unlike Norway where they get nearly all the electricity from hydro).

[Marco]

I wonder if the underground hydrogen production by reforming in situ actually has a chance to work or is just a disingenuous boondoggle.

I just don't see how doing it in situ makes carbon capture any easier. If you burn the underground deposits with air you need to have filters which are not only able to pass the hydrogen (which is easy) but also the nitrogen and NOx (which I doubt is easy). If you burn it with pure oxygen you now have to pay for the pure oxygen production. Not to mention all the potential problems of trying to contain supercritical CO2 in the first place.

[SiliconWizard]

Seeing a lot of "Netherland" or "Amsterdam" words in this discussion, are these places, considered as the "ideal" reference for this particular topic of discussion ? 

Yes because (together with Norway) the Netherlands is furtest ahead with adoption of EVs. So the challenges 'we' have here will pop up somewhere else too. Perhaps the Netherlands is even a better blueprint compared to Norway because the Netherlands doesn't have a large source of renewable electricity (unlike Norway where they get nearly all the electricity from hydro).

Norway is great but by no means a reproducible example. All of Norway is atypical. A very large country with very very few people. A large part of electricity production from hydro as you said (partly thanks to the inherent characteristics of the land). An incredible wealth due to exploiting oil, allowing them to invest a lot and allowing a significant fraction of the population to buy expensive stuff. Etc.

As I said above, I absolutely don't believe EVs are going to replace current vehicles one by one. If they ever replace them altogether, that'll probably be a lot fewer vehicles in circulation, except in very particular regions (such as Norway, Switzerland maybe, and a few others.)

[bdunham7]

Yes because (together with Norway) the Netherlands is furtest ahead with adoption of EVs. So the challenges 'we' have here will pop up somewhere else too. Perhaps the Netherlands is even a better blueprint compared to Norway because the Netherlands doesn't have a large source of renewable electricity (unlike Norway where they get nearly all the electricity from hydro).

You have significant EV penetration due to coercive tax policies (and very high taxes overall), but no parking space and according to you, inadequate wiring.  Perhaps Bangladesh will run into the same issues someday.  I think that most of the rest of us will be OK.

[duak]

Just to inject a bit of levity.  Could the car heater be smart silicon and do something useful like mining Bitcoins?

Practically though, I have a heat pump at home that is at least twice as efficient at converting kW-Hs to BTUs or Joules as a resistor.  Since an EV's drive electronics and batteries generate heat that has to be dissipated, does anyone know if any EV uses some of the waste heat to heat the passengers?  Or even better, has a heat pump to heat/cool the passengers and electronics?

BTW, my first car back in the 70s had a 5 liter V8.  Efficient it was not but it had a terrifically good heater that could peel the skin off your nose in the coldest weather (-25 C) I drove it in. 

[Ed.Kloonk]

Seeing a lot of "Netherland" or "Amsterdam" words in this discussion, are these places, considered as the "ideal" reference for this particular topic of discussion ? 

Yes because (together with Norway) the Netherlands is furtest ahead with adoption of EVs. So the challenges 'we' have here will pop up somewhere else too. Perhaps the Netherlands is even a better blueprint compared to Norway because the Netherlands doesn't have a large source of renewable electricity (unlike Norway where they get nearly all the electricity from hydro).

I'm waiting for the Dutch to come out with a roof rack mounted wind generator car.

 

[mikeselectricstuff]

Since an EV's drive electronics and batteries generate heat that has to be dissipated, does anyone know if any EV uses some of the waste heat to heat the passengers?  Or even better, has a heat pump to heat/cool the passengers and electronics?

There is isn't much waste heat from the electronics, probably not enough to be worth using for passenger heating, though there may be a single coolant loop to use whatever heat is available from any source.
 Some cars do use heat pumps, both for battery thermal management (heating or cooling) as well as passenger compartment. Sometimes whether or not heat pumps are fitted depends on the country they are sold in.
Here's some info on the Hyundia Kona /Kia E-Niro thermal management system :
https://electricrevs.com/2018/12/20/exclusive-details-on-hyundais-new-battery-thermal-management-design/

[richard.cs]

As mikeselectricstuff says a single coolant loop is common. The Zoe uses a liquid cooled inverter and motor coupled with a very conventional-looking radiator. It has heat-pump heating/cooling of the passenger compartment which can pump heat from or dump it to this coolant loop. Waste heat can therefore be used to heat the cabin, though there's not generally a huge amount of it and really it just assists the heat pump a little by giving it a lower temperature differential to work with. Below about 4 °C outside it switches to resistive heating with a corresponding efficiency hit.

The same power electronics and therefore the same coolant loop is also used when charging, so if heating the cabin during (or shortly after) charging (some of) that waste heat is also recovered.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Below about 4 °C outside it switches to resistive heating with a corresponding efficiency hit.

People tend to forget that heat pumps don't work well when outside temps are below 0˚C because the (outside) evaporator turns into a frozen solid lump of ice: https://www.temperzone.co.nz/FAQ/Understanding-Defrost-Cycle/

[tom66]

Since an EV's drive electronics and batteries generate heat that has to be dissipated, does anyone know if any EV uses some of the waste heat to heat the passengers?  Or even better, has a heat pump to heat/cool the passengers and electronics?

Yes, most EVs do this.  As Mike points out, the heat isn't much, but on my Golf GTE, it's enough to keep the cabin at 20'C if the outside is at 15'C, for instance, and not require any input from the electric heater.    On Teslas, the heat produced by the autopilot computer (100W+) is dissipated into the general cooling loop, which can be used for cabin heat if needed.

The e-Golf comes with a heat pump, as do a few other EVs, however it's not that common.  Apparently the compressor is about twice as large as a standard AC compressor, so the cost is likely higher (on the e-Golf it is an £800 option from memory.)  That said, at full blast, the air con on my car pulls 3.2kW, which makes it somewhere around a 12,000 BTU system. That is about what you'd use for a small room heat pump so maybe there are other factors at play here, such as efficiency or non-flammable refrigerants.

The Golf GTE is actually rather clever in terms of thermal design: there are three coolant loops, one for the engine, one for the EV motor and power electronics, and one for the battery and charger.  It can cool the battery using the air conditioning, if you have a lead foot and are enjoying the hybrid sport mode a bit much, whilst scavenging heat from the engine if it is still warm after an extended drive. For that reason, on longer trips, I run the engine, then as I get to my destination, I switch to electric, which means the engine provides the cabin heat as it cools down for about 15 minutes or so. 

[nfmax]

Don't forget 'Negawatts', the decline in electricity consumption arising from improvements in efficiency of electricity-consuming devices. There is a short section on this in the latest issue of Drax Electric Insights (https://www.drax.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/200207_Drax_19Q4_Report_3.pdf) which reviews the changes in Great Britain's electricity system over the past decade:

Electricity demand has fallen steadily over the decade even though the population has grown 7% and GDP risen by a quarter in that time. Britain now consumes one-eighth less electricity, through a combination of shifting economic production, milder winters meaning less demand for electric heating, and improving energy efficiency. For example, a modern 42” LCD TV has triple the screen area of an old 21” square TV, but uses only half as much electricity.

The referenced data are a population growth from 62.8M to 66.9M, and a GDP growth from £1.7T to £2.2T (Office of National Statistics). Annual electricity demand fell by 13% over the decade (~332TWh to ~288TWh, from the graph in the report). Peak annual generation (including imports) looks to have been around 2005-2006.
If this reduction arises from the causes claimed, it not only frees up generating capacity, but also distribution network capacity. Electric cars will need to be recharged at the same places where the old, power hungry TVs were used!

On another (but related) topic from the report the carbon intensity of the UK generation mix has now fallen to the level where simple resistive electric heating produces less CO₂ per kWh than the 'fleet average' domestic gas central heating boiler:

The move towards condensing boilers means the efficiency of the UK’s gas boilers is improving over time, but too slowly to help with climate change. The average efficiency of gas heating has risen from 82% to 86% over the last decade, meaning that the carbon emissions from producing 1 kWh of central heating or hot water only fell from 225 grams in 2010 to 215 grams in 2019.
In comparison, standard electric heating would have produced 500 grams of CO2 per kWh2 of heat delivered back at the start of the decade, more than double that from a gas boiler. As electricity production has shifted away from fossil fuels, Britain has reached the point where it is cleaner to use electric heating than a gas boiler for the first time ever.
Averaged over 2019, simple electric heaters produced 207 grams of CO2 per kWh of heat. We would now have to blend 12% hydrogen (by volume) into the mains gas grid for Britain’s boilers to be as clean as simple electric radiators. As the carbon intensity of electricity continues to fall, it will be impossible for hydrogen blending to keep pace with the carbon reductions, and only complete hydrogen switch-over will have the chance to compete on environmental grounds.

At current rates, it is about three times as expensive to heat using resistive electric heating compared with gas (though this ignores the lower maintenence costs of an electric system - no annual boiler service). It should be technically possible to blend up to 20% hydrogen into the current gas grid, without modifying existing gas-burning devices. Of course, this will only reduce overall CO₂ emission if it is generated using 'clean' electricty, or in association with CCS.

Eit to add disclaimer: A friend of mine is a director of Drax plc

[tom66]

I'm curious as to how charging is to work for a street full of terraced houses where nobody has allocated parking and charging cables would have to run across a public footpath?

Various options:
- Charge at work if possible
- Charge using a rapid charger at the supermarket/petrol station (like a regular car, just with a longer wait)
- Charge using on-street charging furniture (e.g. Ubitricity in London have lamp-post chargers)

The first two are easier to solve.  On-street charging is a hard problem and requires a lot of investment. For most users though, a charge rate of 2-3kW would be sufficient for overnight charging.

About 50% of people in the UK have access to driveways. EV charging is "easy" for these people, and they should be the initial target, as their demand for rapid, destination and work charging will allow others without off-street parking to charge.

When away from home, I have trailed cables under cable protectors across the street to charge my car, which is a technique that is actually endorsed by Hampshire County Council:
https://www.hants.gov.uk/transport/ev-charging-points/ev-charging-guidance

[nfmax]

I'm curious as to how charging is to work for a street full of terraced houses where nobody has allocated parking and charging cables would have to run across a public footpath?

Various options:
- Charge at work if possible
- Charge using a rapid charger at the supermarket/petrol station (like a regular car, just with a longer wait)
- Charge using on-street charging furniture (e.g. Ubitricity in London have lamp-post chargers)

The first two are easier to solve.  On-street charging is a hard problem and requires a lot of investment. For most users though, a charge rate of 2-3kW would be sufficient for overnight charging.

About 50% of people in the UK have access to driveways. EV charging is "easy" for these people, and they should be the initial target, as their demand for rapid, destination and work charging will allow others without off-street parking to charge.

When away from home, I have trailed cables under cable protectors across the street to charge my car, which is a technique that is actually endorsed by Hampshire County Council:
https://www.hants.gov.uk/transport/ev-charging-points/ev-charging-guidance

The whole idea of being allowed to store your personal possessions on public property (i.e. leaving your car permanently parked on a public road) might perhaps be reconsidered...

[tom66]

The whole idea of being allowed to store your personal possessions on public property (i.e. leaving your car permanently parked on a public road) might perhaps be reconsidered...

Yes, one of the biggest mistakes that was made when the "motor-car" became commonplace was not mandating that you have a private location to store it if you want to own it.

Hence we have streets cluttered with cars parked on public property.  And it gets more complex because they often aren't parked in front of the owner's home, so trailing charging cables or installing charging equipment in a specific location funded by the resident is a pain.

Unfortunately I think this is too far gone to change.

[tom66]

So 50% of the car owning public aren't allowed to have their car near their home.

Nice, can't see that being unpopular at all.

I didn't say that at all, but well done for creatively misreading it.

What I said was on-street charging is hard and expensive.  Off-street is easier to solve and requires less infrastructure.   So the infrastructure will initially target those who have driveways but on-street charging will still need to be solved. That will require lamp-post charging, or in kerb charging or weatherproof tracks in the pavement.  There are many proposals and many successful implementations (GMEV for Manchester, Ubitricity in Oxford and London, etc.)

The important thing to take from this is that 50% of people will find it relatively easy to work with an electric vehicle given they have access to a driveway, so that is who we should be promoting electric vehicles to right now, while working on improving the situation for people without charging on their street.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The whole idea of being allowed to store your personal possessions on public property (i.e. leaving your car permanently parked on a public road) might perhaps be reconsidered...

Yeah, let's progress backwards. I fear that the future will be worse than the present.

[bw2341]

https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-egg-is-a-fascin-1830992728

Apparently, Tesla is a leader in EV cooling systems. In the Model 3, a combined expansion tank, pump and distribution manifold, gives them a cost and packaging efficiency advantage.

Another innovation is using the drive motor windings as a resistance heater, instead of a separate heater.

Elsewhere, I’ve read that Tesla’s Supercharger network is well integrated into the navigation software. If you choose a Supercharger as the destination, the car will heat the battery en route to allow the best fast charging rate as you arrive.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Now, what's with that saying that EVs were much less complicated than ICEs?

[richard.cs]

Now, what's with that saying that EVs were much less complicated than ICEs?

They are arguably more complicated than some ICEs, but so what if a 2020 Tesla model 3 is more complex than a 1979 Ford Fiesta. The only sensible comparison has to be to contemporary ICEs. Yes an EV has a somewhat complex battery management system which in some cases include active cooling. It also has fewer moving parts, fewer precision machined parts, lesser maintenance requirements, a simpler drivetrain, etc.

All modern cars are complex machines however they are propelled.

[nctnico]

Now, what's with that saying that EVs were much less complicated than ICEs?

They are arguably more complicated than some ICEs, but so what if a 2020 Tesla model 3 is more complex than a 1979 Ford Fiesta. The only sensible comparison has to be to contemporary ICEs. Yes an EV has a somewhat complex battery management system which in some cases include active cooling. It also has fewer moving parts, fewer precision machined parts, lesser maintenance requirements, a simpler drivetrain, etc.

Now you focus purely on the drivetrain. If you look at the big picture an EV and ICE car are equally complicated. The complicated bit is just in different areas. For example: the cooling system of an ICE based car is much less complex compared to an EV which needs to actively cool and heat drive electronics and the battery pack. If you compile an entire list you'll see it will be equal. Also cars are engineered for a certain MTBF so all in all the overall reliability will be the same.

[maginnovision]

Anybody arguing they are less complex is just repeating what they've heard. There is nothing simple about the motors or drive electronics. If they were at all simple they wouldn't be swapping entire units they'd be repairing them and reinstalling. A modern vehicle is made with repairability in mind. EVs are made so the big components can be swapped and sent off to be rebuilt. Imagine if you had to do that with your ICE vehicle. Leaking valve cover gasket? Well you need to pay to replace the engine and we'll have you back on the road. This is less of an issue for lower performance models where the motors and drive electronics aren't being stressed but any high performance model(Tesla, Porsche, jaguar, etc...) It's a constant issue. That's just a warranty issue until it runs out though. Aside from the method of propulsion they all have AC/heater systems, body electronics, cooling systems, brakes, suspension... Multi component systems that can all fail due to wear and tear or design failures.

Realistically nobody is going to be working on their own ev systems because they're actually more complicated. An engine and transmission are just Legos that occasionally require some measurements to make sure the pieces fit. Anybody can do it and many do.

[richard.cs]

Now you focus purely on the drivetrain. If you look at the big picture an EV and ICE car are equally complicated. The complicated bit is just in different areas. For example: the cooling system of an ICE based car is much less complex compared to an EV which needs to actively cool and heat drive electronics and the battery pack. If you compile an entire list you'll see it will be equal. Also cars are engineered for a certain MTBF so all in all the overall reliability will be the same.

Well that was my point, the bit you missed when quoting me was:

All modern cars are complex machines however they are propelled.

All modern cars have complexity and most of the non-drivetrain complexity is common to ICE and EV; ABS and traction control, lots of airbags, various passenger comfort and entertainment things, reversing sensors, proximity radars, lane following, etc.

Of the complexity which is not common to both:
ICEs have huge numbers of complex moving parts in both engine and drivetrain, and then lots of sensors and control electronics associated with optimising performance and emissions.
EVs have a chunk of power electronics to do motor drive and then a complex battery management system. They may or may not have active temperature management of the battery.

So with everything else common to both, the question is if a modern ICE and transmission is more or less complex than an inverter drive and managed battery. I can see an argument that they're similar, and I can see an argument that the EV is less complex because the most complex part (the battery and BMS) is actually made largely of many identical chunks of cell + electronics.

In reality of course, complexity is unimportant, especially some theoretical assessment of how much entropy is contained within the vehicle. It's as pointless as if we took all the design documentation and ran it through gzip and argued one car was less complex and therefore better because the resulting file size is smaller. What end users actually care about is not complexity itself, but the corresponding impact on reliability (as failure probability * cost of repair) and routine maintenance cost.

[nctnico]

The important thing to take from this is that 50% of people will find it relatively easy to work with an electric vehicle given they have access to a driveway, so that is who we should be promoting electric vehicles to right now, while working on improving the situation for people without charging on their street.

The car industry would like that because it means business as usual while CO2 savings only exist on paper. The world is better served by promoting (subsidising) more efficient cars today. All across Europe the average CO2 output per car is increasing despite the EVs being sold. There is something terribly wrong with the idea that EVs can lower CO2 emissions within the timeframes set by the Paris agreement.

Also the chances are high that by the time 'kerb charging' is implemented it is no longer needed due to bio-fuels, hydrogen or even better batteries.