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The Hyperloop: BUSTED
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brucehoult:

--- Quote from: nctnico on November 29, 2017, 02:16:20 pm ---We'll probably see less hot days due to the sun's activity declining over the next few years (there is data to back that up) but overall the climate has become warmer during my lifetime. When I was a kid there used to be snow and ice during the winter. Those kind of winters are long gone. Some people even did the unthinkable and started to grow grapes and produce wine in the southern parts of the NL.

--- End quote ---

Unfortunately you can't tell much from one small area.

In the case of NL, the weather and climate are very affected by the jetstream over the north atlantic:

https://bigsalty.com/en/charts/jet_stream_forecast/netherlands/

It wanders up and down, sometimes passing over NL and sometimes not, with changes on both short and long time scales.

If one place gets hotter as a result of a movement of the jetstream then another place a few hundred km away gets colder.
Tepe:

--- Quote from: brucehoult on November 29, 2017, 03:31:40 pm ---Unfortunately you can't tell much from one small area.

--- End quote ---
You are aware that the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere reached 407.06 ppm in October? Things are not like they used to be. The levels reconstructed from ice cores going back more than 400 000 years never exceeded 300 ppm.
brucehoult:

--- Quote from: Tepe on November 29, 2017, 06:57:32 pm ---
--- Quote from: brucehoult on November 29, 2017, 03:31:40 pm ---Unfortunately you can't tell much from one small area.

--- End quote ---
You are aware that the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere reached 407.06 ppm in October? Things are not like they used to be. The levels reconstructed from ice cores going back more than 400 000 years never exceeded 300 ppm.

--- End quote ---

And so?

Someone has a theory that carbon dioxide levels control temperature. They made up all kinds of equations and ran them on a computer and made predictions -- which have never yet been anything like accurate.

Someone else has a theory that temperature controls carbon dioxide levels. Some of the historical records appear to show temperature changing a few hundred years before a corresponding CO2 change. Maybe. Those measurements are done using indirect methods which we have no idea whether they work accurately, or whether the time scale is accurate.

What I showed is actual temperature measurements, using the relatively modern method of  a thermometer and written down on paper at the time, over the last 150 or so years.

I have issues with whether you can really average temperatures across the whole world and get a meaningful single number accurate to 0.01C -- especially from instruments 150 years ago -- and I even doubt whether the whole concept makes physical sense, but this is the closest thing to actual real data in this field.

Data, not a theory, or the output of a sensitive and unstable numerical integration process run on a computer.
nctnico:

--- Quote from: brucehoult on November 29, 2017, 08:47:38 pm ---What I showed is actual temperature measurements, using the relatively modern method of  a thermometer and written down on paper at the time, over the last 150 or so years.

--- End quote ---
The temperature in the graph you link to shows an exponential rise in temperature over the past150 years. Either way even IF CO2 isn't the cause it is not a bad idea to change to reduce energy consumption and switch to renewable energy sources because the fossil fuels we are relying on will run out pretty quick especially if you look at the commercially viable sources and the sources which don't have a political price tag. West Europe for example does not want to rely on gas from Russia because that gives people like Putin way too much power.
brucehoult:

--- Quote from: nctnico on November 29, 2017, 10:10:27 pm ---
--- Quote from: brucehoult on November 29, 2017, 08:47:38 pm ---What I showed is actual temperature measurements, using the relatively modern method of  a thermometer and written down on paper at the time, over the last 150 or so years.

--- End quote ---
The temperature in the graph you link to shows an exponential rise in temperature over the past150 years.

--- End quote ---

Exponential?

You can draw a straight line dead through the mid point of each of those ~30 year warming and cooling periods. Try it.


--- Quote ---Either way even IF CO2 isn't the cause it is not a bad idea to change to reduce energy consumption and switch to renewable energy sources because the fossil fuels we are relying on will run out pretty quick

--- End quote ---

Except they won't run out. There have never been bigger known reserves than right now, and production capability continues to increase (despite repeated "peak oil" predictions). What has ACTUALLY peaked is demand, now falling below production capacity because of everything from cars to factories needing less energy and engines getting more efficient at the same time. The price is going to drop out the bottom of the oil and gas markets, with or without renewables.


--- Quote ---especially if you look at the commercially viable sources and the sources which don't have a political price tag. West Europe for example does not want to rely on gas from Russia because that gives people like Putin way too much power.

--- End quote ---

So now we've gone from "we're all gonna fry!" to "I don't like some guy's politics". That's a slightly less critical thing, don't you think?

But don't worry, Putin's going to run out of money pretty quick, because of the falling prices because of the hugely increased production in every country that doesn't bow to "environmentalists" (mostly from fracking) and concurrent decreased consumption from technology. Russia's long term economic prospects are totally fucked if they continue to rely on gas.
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