General > General Technical Chat
The Hyperloop: BUSTED
Brutte:
Also suggesting the only viable topology is a linear one is flawed. Any topology is technically possible, including star, mesh etc. Single point failure won't stop whole infrastructure.
The question is about the:
a) investment cost,
b) running cost
c) durability
d) interest rate
-The interest rate is same for both Hyperloop and competing airplanes.
-The durability is not. Together with interest rate, it influences economics - durability of infrastructure can be an important decision factor.
-the investment cost per passenger*km, because of the infrastructure of that 600km...
-The running cost is tempting - no pilots on-board, automation in isolated environment, low friction, low energy usage, decent speed.
Now lets do some ballpark calculations for the 600km route and the relation in between the price and time it takes to travel that distance nowadays. In a modeled scenario one can comfortably load 4 people to a "33m/s car" (120km/h average) that in EU highway conditions does that 600km using 6*7dm3/100km*1Eur/dm3. Thus 10.5 euro and 5 man*hours per person might be assumed realistic.
Same could be done if you go to/from a hyperloop station (arbitrary 2*40 minutes, assume 0 eur) plus 40 minutes of "flight", gives 2h. How much over that 10.5 eur would you be willing to spend for the saved 3h?
If your travel time is worth 15 eur/hour for you then 10.5eur + 5h is a tie with 55.5eur + 2h. Ask more and the 15eur passenger that commutes 1h20 minutes from/to terminal won't bite.
tszaboo:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on July 25, 2016, 09:31:28 am ---Can someone please explain to me the requirement for the Hyperloop (apart from being cool), with all it's inherent engineering problems, over a MegLev train?
--- End quote ---
I have the feeling that people NEED some new mega-structure. Look at history. Pyramids, the great wall, Hoover dam, skyscrapers bigger and bigger. Today by the looks of it it is not enought to convert the entire world into a blob with internet access every square meters, road networks everywhere, oil pipes going through continents. The largest brige is "just" a bridge. They want space elevators, hyperloop, colonize the moon or build a halo over the globe. The bigger the better.
BTW, Concorde became 30 year old, extremely expensive to operate and buy tickets.
hayatepilot:
--- Quote from: Brutte on July 25, 2016, 09:50:51 am ---Also suggesting the only viable topology is a linear one is flawed. Any topology is technically possible, including star, mesh etc. Single point failure won't stop whole infrastructure.
The question is about the:
a) investment cost,
b) running cost
c) durability
d) interest rate
-The interest rate is same for both Hyperloop and competing airplanes.
-The durability is not. Together with interest rate, it influences economics - durability of infrastructure can be an important decision factor.
-the investment cost per passenger*km, because of the infrastructure of that 600km...
-The running cost is tempting - no pilots on-board, automation in isolated environment, low friction, low energy usage, decent speed.
Now lets do some ballpark calculations for the 600km route and the relation in between the price and time it takes to travel that distance nowadays. In a modeled scenario one can comfortably load 4 people to a "33m/s car" (120km/h average) that in EU highway conditions does that 600km using 6*7dm3/100km*1Eur/dm3. Thus 10.5 euro and 5 man*hours per person might be assumed realistic.
Same could be done if you go to/from a hyperloop station (arbitrary 2*40 minutes, assume 0 eur) plus 40 minutes of "flight", gives 2h. How much over that 10.5 eur would you be willing to spend for the saved 3h?
If your travel time is worth 15 eur/hour for you then 10.5eur + 5h is a tie with 55.5eur + 2h. Ask more and the 15eur passenger that commutes 1h20 minutes from/to terminal won't bite.
--- End quote ---
The costs of a car is a LOT more than just the fuel costs. You forgot the insurance and more importantly depreciation and maintenance.
Costs per km for a new car ranges from 0.40$ to 0.60$ .
So the 600km trip costs more like 250$...
But of course that makes the hyperloop idea not more viable, there are just too many risks and problems.
Brutte:
--- Quote from: hayatepilot on July 25, 2016, 12:43:01 pm ---Costs per km for a new car ranges from 0.40$ to 0.60$ .
--- End quote ---
Well, I was trying to make a ballpark comparison of the scenario where 4 people (family/pals/coworkers/commuters etc) want to travel from A to B and it happens these two points are 600km apart.
As for the total cost of owning a car - I do agree there you also need whole infrastructure and there are additional costs involved. Same with airplanes and with hyperloop.
However, what hyperloop competing against as a company/project are mainly the running costs of other options (here a car). I also do agree that nowadays a passenger car is not a very endure asset, it is being scarped after 200k:300k km.
Ok, so add 25k eur/300k km *600km and it gives additional 12.5eur per person for the investment cost of the car. That ramps up the ticket price from 55.5eur to 68eur per person.
--- Quote ---So the 600km trip costs more like 250$...
--- End quote ---
68eur*4=299$ as of today ^-^
So if the average wage and the value of an hour in some region is 15eur/h and there are enough customers within that 1h20min to/from range then a 68eur ticket per person is "within range".
-If it is twice as that, at 136eur, the project won't get serious attention and volume.
-If it is half as that, at 34eur, you are unlikely to meet <4 people of 15eur/h traveling from A to B by car.
What I wanted to point out is the top limit one can pull out of that hyperloop. If you want more then either find A and B where there are no roads in between (some straight) or where you can count on higher salaries than the 15eur/h or you can force some governmental restrictions on road traffic. I also understand that if the hyperloop is safer than other means, you can ramp up that 68eur a little bit. People are also likely to pay for an additional comfort, lower environmental impact, etc.
YMMV.
LabSpokane:
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