Lessons learned (A380)

[Rick Law]

Reading various business press(es), looks like A380 orders is not panning out as hoped.  No new orders in the last two years, and production is going at about at best 1/2 what had been hoped for this stage*.  Looks like the project now exists merely to finish outstanding orders.

If it does shuts down, what do you think are the most valuable technologies created as a result of the A380 project that will live on after A380 itself goes out of production?

I would include production techniques (including inter-site/inter-national cooperation) as "valuable technology" to the extend of the value anyone here proposes.


* Article from Forbes Dec 27, 2017: "Is Airbus Finally Ready To Shut Down A380 Production?"
^{https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2017/12/27/is-airbus-finally-ready-to-shut-down-a380-production/}

[BradC]

Reading various business press(es), looks like A380 orders is not panning out as hoped.  No new orders in the last two years, and production is going at about at best 1/2 what had been hoped for this stage*.  Looks like the project now exists merely to finish outstanding orders.

I was doing a lot of work for Emirates in Dubai up until I came home in 2009, and even back then the internal opinion was they'd bought a white elephant, but the ship takes an awful long time to change direction.

It is an impressive machine, but the gamble on the market changing to favour hub based aircraft (against the market research at the time) just didn't pay off.

I was playing music with one of the Emirates safety guys at the time, and the stories he used to tell about serious workmanship and quality issues with the 380's would make you never want to set foot on one. I've flown in a few, and I do think they did some impressive engineering, but they were betting on the market moving to a different and more consolidated model and it never happened.

[CatalinaWOW]

Biggest lesson learned is to study Boeing's market research sources/methodology.  All during development and launch of A380 Airbus and Boeing had dramatically different projections for the market.  Boeing's predicted that no one could make money selling an aircraft that size, and that splitting the market was an even dumber move.  They therefore declined to develop a direct competitor, and only nibbled at the edges of the market with minor modifications of the 747.  Airbus swore over and over that they had it right.

The actual market has been quite close to Boeing's projections.  It could have been pure luck, but I would put at least some money on understanding and re-using that market projection technology.

[Rick Law]

Now this is depressing.  It looks like no one can easily think of technology advancement originated by the A380 project that would likely be bringing future value.

I personally do not like packing in so many passengers into a single flight.  Most travelers travels economy/coach.  Doing 400+ just make the trip less humane.

[tsman]

If they can reuse the efficient aerodynamic design, the latest avionics and use second hand power systems (hydraulics and engines and fuel system), they might come up with a relatively cheap, half new half old cargo machine for demanding inter-continental express service providers.

I'm not sure how popular that would be. There have been lots of large combi aircraft in the past including some that allowed for seats to be added/removed as required. Pretty much everybody who did operate combi aircraft has converted them to full passenger or full cargo configuration now though. They were mostly used for routes that couldn't fill a whole plane with all passengers or all cargo. KLM are the last to operate the large 747-400M combis but they'll be replaced with something more fuel efficient soon.

IIRC there are restrictions now on what exactly you can carry as cargo when you're also carrying passengers. There were some disasters caused by dangerous cargo so they heavily restricted it.

[CatalinaWOW]

If they can reuse the efficient aerodynamic design, the latest avionics and use second hand power systems (hydraulics and engines and fuel system), they might come up with a relatively cheap, half new half old cargo machine for demanding inter-continental express service providers.

I'm not sure how popular that would be. There have been lots of large combi aircraft in the past including some that allowed for seats to be added/removed as required. Pretty much everybody who did operate combi aircraft has converted them to full passenger or full cargo configuration now though. They were mostly used for routes that couldn't fill a whole plane with all passengers or all cargo. KLM are the last to operate the large 747-400M combis but they'll be replaced with something more fuel efficient soon.

IIRC there are restrictions now on what exactly you can carry as cargo when you're also carrying passengers. There were some disasters caused by dangerous cargo so they heavily restricted it.

Blueskull was talking about mixing old/new technology, not splitting the payload.  I think he would agree that splitting the payload hasn't proved marketable.

[Tom45]

I think I read somewhere that a freighter version of the A380 would be problematic because the floor between the upper and lower decks is an integral part of the A380's structure. So they can't just remove the seats and floor and have one huge cavern for freight.

The 747 was designed from the beginning to allow a freighter version with one huge empty space, and a nose that tilts up out of the way for loading bulky objects.

[BradC]

Now this is depressing.  It looks like no one can easily think of technology advancement originated by the A380 project that would likely be bringing future value.

It's hard to comment without a full understanding of the specifics. How many aeronautical engineers are on the forum with an intimate knowledge of the A380?

I believe Airbus put a significant amount of visible engineering into the fuel efficiency and noise (both internal and external) of the aircraft. On top of all of the invisible (to a mere passenger like me) engineering advances, I guarantee everything they learned will be flowing on into either new designs or upgrades of existing designs. So aside from the tooling, nothing is really wasted.

I suspect though, the one thing they really learned (which is do your market research and actually listen to the market) will be ignored.

Having said that, Boeing had the "build it and they will come" attitude with the Skunkworks 747, and that turned out ok for them. I think Airbus made a gamble, but they were already long odds.

[Tom45]

I suspect though, the one thing they really learned (which is do your market research and actually listen to the market) will be ignored.

Having said that, Boeing had the "build it and they will come" attitude with the Skunkworks 747, and that turned out ok for them. I think Airbus made a gamble, but they were already long odds.

Actually, the 747 was the result of Pan Am's Juan Trippe bugging Boeing for an aircraft more than twice the size of the 707. Trippe wanted a narrow body double deck aircraft. Boeing's designers tried that and decided it wouldn't work and then decided that a single deck two aisle wide body was far more practical. They then had to convince Trippe. They built mockups of both designs and when Trippe and the other Pan Am folks visited Boeing and saw the mockups they realized that Boeing had got it right with the single deck wide body.

I wonder if the A380 came about due to faulty market research or did Airbus just decide they wanted to build it? Or did something change between the research and the time that the A380 entered the market?

In the fall of 1967 I was starting my senior year in EE and one of the field trips we went on was to Boeing. One of the things we did there was to tour the 747 mockup built for Pan Am. 50 years later in the fall of 2017, I took one of the last Delta 747 flights on the upper deck between Detroit and Seoul as a farewell to the 747.

[BrianHG]

Holy crap, has airline travel sunken so god damn low since that photo.  I remember in the 70s, real metal cutlery, full 4 course meals on real ceramic dishes, in coach.  No extra charge.  Actual real meat, like a chicken leg and breast, or, a real piece of roast beef.  An actual separate salad appetizer.  Separate desert tray.  And this was on a 3 hour flight from Montreal to Florida...

[Towger]

Holy crap, has airline travel sunken so god damn low since that photo.  I remember in the 70s, real metal cutlery, full 4 course meals on real ceramic dishes, in coach. 

You will still get all that in steerage on the likes of Emirates etc.  But not a chance on 'western' airlines.  At one stage the plastic cutlery would come out when over Europe, but from memory it was metal all the way the last couple of years.  Asian countries are also not paranoid over nail clippers and binary liquid explosives, aka liquids in over 100ml bottles.

[Jeroen3]

Nobody is going to blow up a plane with his/her own baby.

You underestimate humans and their loyalty psychological conditions or extremism.

I flew last april from NCE to AMS and they were still actively checking for Note 7 phones.

[Tom45]

Holy crap, has airline travel sunken so god damn low since that photo.  I remember in the 70s, real metal cutlery, full 4 course meals on real ceramic dishes, in coach.  No extra charge.  Actual real meat, like a chicken leg and breast, or, a real piece of roast beef.  An actual separate salad appetizer.  Separate desert tray.  And this was on a 3 hour flight from Montreal to Florida...

Yeah, air travel was a Really Big Deal back then.

I remember a similar meal on a flight from Montreal to Toronto in the late 60's. A total distance of only 316 miles. They took our meal orders while still on the ground in Montreal. As soon as the wheels left the ground the  stewardesses were distributing the linen and utensils. Quickly followed by our meals. Even then I was surprised and impressed by getting that meal service on such a short flight. Probably wasn't a 4 course meal though. Was in a 4 turboprop engine Vickers Viscount.

[Rick Law]

Now this is depressing.  It looks like no one can easily think of technology advancement originated by the A380 project that would likely be bringing future value.

It's hard to comment without a full understanding of the specifics. How many aeronautical engineers are on the forum with an intimate knowledge of the A380?

I believe Airbus put a significant amount of visible engineering into the fuel efficiency and noise (both internal and external) of the aircraft. On top of all of the invisible (to a mere passenger like me) engineering advances, I guarantee everything they learned will be flowing on into either new designs or upgrades of existing designs. So aside from the tooling, nothing is really wasted.

I suspect though, the one thing they really learned (which is do your market research and actually listen to the market) will be ignored.

Having said that, Boeing had the "build it and they will come" attitude with the Skunkworks 747, and that turned out ok for them. I think Airbus made a gamble, but they were already long odds.

re: "...How many aeronautical engineers are on the forum..."

I recognize that, this is an electronics forum after all.  I was suspecting that if the advances are great, news would have spread.  Besides, things are so heavily electronics these days I was expecting that is where the most of the techno-advancements were made.

Don't take this wrong:  folks here always have an opinion, sometime even when they know about it only indirectly.  Reality is one thing, but sometimes wrong impressions can have a real life impact as well.  So, what people think they know (true or not) is always interesting when assessing success or failure.

[james_s]

In the fall of 1967 I was starting my senior year in EE and one of the field trips we went on was to Boeing. One of the things we did there was to tour the 747 mockup built for Pan Am. 50 years later in the fall of 2017, I took one of the last Delta 747 flights on the upper deck between Detroit and Seoul as a farewell to the 747.

Pictures like that always amaze me, must have really been fantastic to fly back in those days.

Mention of the mockup reminds me, my partner's late grandfather was management at Boeing in that era and being the only aviation enthusiast in the family I ended up with a bunch of random Boeing memorabilia upon his passing. One of them being this pamphlet that mentions that particular mockup. Unfortunately it's just a hair too wide to fit in my sheet feed scanner.