This isn't fun anymore. All my projects are on hold.

[rx8pilot]

I love electronics and do it for fun and for a living.

The sad part is that the current state of the supply chain is so draining that I am dreading any electronics work. Of the three major professional projects I have been working on for over a year - all on indefinite hold. At first I tried part substitutions. Then altering the design based on parts I could get. At some point, I just figured that I was chasing my tail with zero guarantee production quantities. Kills the bottom line and destroys my interest.

How many small businesses are turning into dust with these problems?

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

[pqass]

Don't be too hasty on that career change.  The current situation won't last; another year at most?

Professionally, yeah, you have a short-term problem. 
Can you split your design such that a daughter board has the more volatile components? 
It might cost you an extra connector pair but gives you the opportunity to solidify most of your design.

I'm only a hobbyist so my lack of supply really doesn't matter.  I'll just buy a few new parts (whatever I can get) and experiment with those.  For example, I just bought a few ESP32-VROOM boards for my USBBluetooth keyboard design.

[rx8pilot]

Don't be too hasty on that career change.  The current situation won't last; another year at most?

If I 100% relied on electronics, I would not last a year of not selling anything. It has already been months that I have not been able to build anything new. A small handful of products are being delivered from the remaining stock of parts.

I do have the ability to pursue some projects that are purely mechanical, but it will take a few months to get any of those to where I can sell them (at least). Definitely do NOT want a career change but this kind of pain is getting intense.

[georges80]

Use the time to dream up new designs and hunt for new projects/customers. It's also a time to rethink life choices and future goals. Potentially it is also an opportunity to think of new niche areas that are safe havens. Take some time to also study and learn about new products and technologies.

It's not just the component supply problem, even when components are available the prices continue to creep up. Some components I use have nearly doubled in cost.

And yes, redesign for available components can be a losing battle as others do the same and those available components disappear overnight. I've seen that happen a few times.

We're going to see some killer inflation over the next year or so.

cheers,
george.

[pqass]

Don't be too hasty on that career change.  The current situation won't last; another year at most?

If I 100% relied on electronics, I would not last a year of not selling anything. It has already been months that I have not been able to build anything new. A small handful of products are being delivered from the remaining stock of parts.

I do have the ability to pursue some projects that are purely mechanical, but it will take a few months to get any of those to where I can sell them (at least). Definitely do NOT want a career change but this kind of pain is getting intense.

I thought you meant a more permanent career change.

If you can't sell anything because of lack of supply, then you might have to (figuratively) sweep floors for a few months to get by.

Do what artists are doing. Can't play gigs so write songs in the meantime.
ie. Buy small quantities and finalize your design now then go into production when quantities are available. 

If you're a contract designer, then convey same to your clients.  Everyone is the same boat WRT shortages.  I'm sure the need for your product will still be there when supply returns.

[AaronLee]

I hear you in how the situation can be depressing. In my experience, I've always found it best to use dead time to learn about new technologies and things I've always wanted to study about but never had time. Then when things pick up again, you have some new abilities to be able to do even more.

[floobydust]

Electronics as a hobby is outrageously fun 
On the corporate treadmill, it's not worth it as a career now. The component shortages have tripled the amount of work and stress.
You are constantly getting disrupted by people barging in, there's some part that cannot be procured "can you find an alternate?". Drop everything and panic, do instant re-design and "oh keep up the schedule" on everything else you are working on.

I design-in a (passive) part 10,000's in stock at disti's and then someone swoops in and scoops up all the stock, now 40 week lead-time. Hoarding is lucrative right now, the scalpers load up on parts and sell for massive overprice and are adding to the shortages. Just bought MCU's at 10X the old price. Small business has no choice but to pay, to have some product to sell, to keep manufacturing busy.

Some engineers are frustrated, angry and stressed from the constant blind-siding. You have to look after yourself and don't be a saviour for the company. In the lock-downs, hours were cut, and staff let go, so even less support now.
Supply Chain can't find alternates, can't get management to approve spending money for stock,  can't get parts any better than me using my Visa card and a web order. They are of no help. Change career to Supply Chain, they don't actually do anything and get paid for it lol.

So I agree it's no fun anymore and I'm avoiding any new projects because things are so unpredictable right now. Late stage, going into regulatory testing, a part vanishes and it's another new panic that blows up the project.

I suspect the shortages are actually a trade war with our favorite country and it won't ease up like we all think.

[VK3DRB]

I also have had thoughts of chucking it in, or as the Americans would say, throwing in the towel. I have had enough of designing in parts that are no longer available. Yes, it triples the stress. Customers want results, not excuses. The biggest root cause of this mess by far is the insidious China virus.

Think of control theory. A relatively stable supply chain system has been directly impacted in a significant manner by external disturbances, creating medium term instability. Negative feedback loops will drive it into stability again. The system will change and adapt. The West will move manufacturing away from countries run by tyrannical regimes, and away from regions prone to devastating environmental impacts. The West will come out of this triumphantly in a few years. Already the West is looking for alternative sources of rear earth metals. The other lesson learnt is some once trusted name companies can no longer be trusted, like Bosch who have treated the engineering community quite poorly. Engineers will gravitate to companies that have a record of being reliable suppliers and treat engineers with due respect.

Hobbyists have it easy. They don't get their arses kicked when they can't get parts. They can switch to 3D printing or gardening. Being a hobbyist sounds a lot more attractive than being as meat-in-the-sandwich engineer.

[Marco]

US and EU should get together and just ban offering for sale or buying parts for more than 2 times the pre-covid prices.

[themadhippy]

US and EU should get together and just ban offering for sale or buying parts for more than 2 times the pre-covid prices.

remember its a 2 way street,so would you also accept  banning the  sellling surplus stock for less than half the price

[Marco]

No, because this would just be a temporary intervention to calm the market and prevent hoarding. Stock being dumped is very unlikely to create any economic problems at the moment.

Price controls have their own issues, but I'd consider it the lesser evil for the moment.

[nctnico]

I hear you in how the situation can be depressing. In my experience, I've always found it best to use dead time to learn about new technologies and things I've always wanted to study about but never had time. Then when things pick up again, you have some new abilities to be able to do even more.

Yup. That is what I'm doing right now. Surprisingly parts for a new project I'm working on are still availble 

[m98]

Even worse if you beg your client to actually stock up the parts used for one production run in advance and he insists on waiting for compliance testing and all firmware bugs getting ironed out first, with the result of a quarter of the parts becoming unobtanium in the mean time and me having to redesign everything...
 

[SiliconWizard]

I love electronics and do it for fun and for a living.

The sad part is that the current state of the supply chain is so draining that I am dreading any electronics work. Of the three major professional projects I have been working on for over a year - all on indefinite hold. At first I tried part substitutions. Then altering the design based on parts I could get. At some point, I just figured that I was chasing my tail with zero guarantee production quantities. Kills the bottom line and destroys my interest.

How many small businesses are turning into dust with these problems?

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

It's currently bad for many of us.
As others here, I would certainly not suggest any career change. That's a decision that you would need to make for yourself with your own rationale only, and for other reasons than just a temporary difficulty (even though at this point I cant tell how temporary it's going to be really...)

Of course, one option (if you can "afford" that in terms of finances) is to focus on longer-term projects. If you can't get ahold of many parts these days, you can still design. So you could embark on this project that maybe you had always postponed because you had no time, it was less certain than others, etc. You could also focus on parts that are not hardware-dependent (at least to an extent), such as firmware development, HDL, etc. If those are not strong points of yours, maybe you could take this time as an opportunity to learn.

[langwadt]

We're going to see some killer inflation over the next year or so.

If you think so run out and borrow as much money as you can, the interest rate at the moment is basically zero

[tszaboo]

I love electronics and do it for fun and for a living.

The sad part is that the current state of the supply chain is so draining that I am dreading any electronics work. Of the three major professional projects I have been working on for over a year - all on indefinite hold. At first I tried part substitutions. Then altering the design based on parts I could get. At some point, I just figured that I was chasing my tail with zero guarantee production quantities. Kills the bottom line and destroys my interest.

How many small businesses are turning into dust with these problems?

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

Yeah I thought about farming, but then weather can mess up your business. Then I thought about fishing, but sometimes the fish are just not where you are. Then I though about making Youtube channel, but sometime the algorithm will bury you. Then I though about trading on the stock market, but then maybe the bear markets eat your profit. Then I thought about opening a shop, but then pandemic could be bad, or people's interest might just change. Then I though about going into crypto trading, but then Elon Muck ruins you with a tweet. Then I though about joining the army, but then a stray bullet might be bad for your future income. I tough about going about writing an app, but then 12 new versions of Android came out befor I made it compatible with one. And apple might decide to pull the app, without giving a reason.

Sure this electronics is actually not that bad.

[Bassman59]

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

The only other thing I can do for income is front-of-house mixing for rock bands.

Talk about an industry that was killed dead.

(I have a couple of shows scheduled for November. Maybe we'll actually do them.)

[langwadt]

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

The only other thing I can do for income is front-of-house mixing for rock bands.

Talk about an industry that was killed dead.

(I have a couple of shows scheduled for November. Maybe we'll actually do them.)

I'd expect that industry to boom soon, people have 1.5year of build up hunger for concerts

[peter-h]

Several threads on this topic recently.

I reckon this bubble will burst end of 2021, and it will be a bloodbath for the vendors.

Supporting evidence for this

- no shortage of most passives (so no unusual demand for real end products)
- some "2022" lead times being revised to much sooner (just got one today)

So hang in there. And if it is your business, carry a year's stock whenever possible. I carry several years' stock of an H8/332 - now obsolete of course. I bought lots when the last time buy came.

[Bud]

Please quit electronics and move to baking pizza, which has always been in demand. Clearly Keysight awarded a scope to a wrong guy.

[SiliconWizard]

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

The only other thing I can do for income is front-of-house mixing for rock bands.

Talk about an industry that was killed dead.

(I have a couple of shows scheduled for November. Maybe we'll actually do them.)

I'd expect that industry to boom soon, people have 1.5year of build up hunger for concerts

I'd be "cautious" about the "soon" here.

[Someone]

- some "2022" lead times being revised to much sooner (just got one today)

Yes, this blip is into the unstable phase as people who booked in long term orders (worried that supply restrictions would drag on) are now cancelling and the product arrives back into the open market. Same experience here with several parts I was watching for late 2022 are now in stock and available normally.

[EEVblog]

One of the problems is that designers and manufacturers are snapping up all the stock they can get thier hands on. JIT (Just In Time) methodology has gone out the window.
This mean you are forced to do the same, and very quickly there is nothing left. It's a self perpetuating guarantee. It's equivalent to the great toilet paper rushes of 2020.

This too shall pass:

[rx8pilot]

One of the problems is that designers and manufacturers are snapping up all the stock they can get thier hands on. JIT (Just In Time) methodology has gone out the window.
This mean you are forced to do the same, and very quickly there is nothing left.

The places where I got busted is getting through a design, proto, and test so that I can order a production supply of parts. I didn't feel like I could rough-in a schematic and then just buy a years worth of parts against it.

I am not giving up on electronics, but actively pursuing some of my mechanical product concepts to buy myself some time. Not sure how well that will work out, but it sure beats just staring at empty part bins and a pick-and-place machine with cobwebs on it. 

[AndyC_772]

I'd expect that industry to boom soon, people have 1.5year of build up hunger for concerts

You'd think so, but I'm not so sure it's the case in practice.

Here in the UK the cinemas reopened a few weeks ago and my local multiplex had its first showing of a repeatedly delayed Hollywood blockbuster. You'd think there would have been pent up demand, but I went along on the first day and there were no more than about 20 people in a theatre with more than 10 times that capacity. It was a pretty surreal experience.

The concerts I know of aren't selling out either. There's still tickets available for a festival I'm going to in September which should have taken place early last year and has been deferred twice now.

[langwadt]

I'd expect that industry to boom soon, people have 1.5year of build up hunger for concerts

You'd think so, but I'm not so sure it's the case in practice.

Here in the UK the cinemas reopened a few weeks ago and my local multiplex had its first showing of a repeatedly delayed Hollywood blockbuster. You'd think there would have been pent up demand, but I went along on the first day and there were no more than about 20 people in a theatre with more than 10 times that capacity. It was a pretty surreal experience.

The concerts I know of aren't selling out either. There's still tickets available for a festival I'm going to in September which should have taken place early last year and has been deferred twice now.

Cinamas were probably a dying breed even before corona. People are probably reluctant to buy concert ticket until they no longer come with strange restrictions and red tape. I bars and restaurants were pretty much full the instant they opened again
 

[fcb]

One of the problems is that designers and manufacturers are snapping up all the stock they can get thier hands on. JIT (Just In Time) methodology has gone out the window.
This mean you are forced to do the same, and very quickly there is nothing left.

The places where I got busted is getting through a design, proto, and test so that I can order a production supply of parts. I didn't feel like I could rough-in a schematic and then just buy a years worth of parts against it.

I am not giving up on electronics, but actively pursuing some of my mechanical product concepts to buy myself some time. Not sure how well that will work out, but it sure beats just staring at empty part bins and a pick-and-place machine with cobwebs on it. 

It's certainly trying at the moment, but not impossible - most the shortages we've come across have either resolved themselves surprisingly quickly (back-orders for parts quoted at 20-24wks, turned up after 2-3 weeks, on several occasions), or we've just changed to a different package (not that easy for the esoteric stuff).  We've held back on releasing some lower cost product as we wanted to ration microcontrollers for existing lines.

Some distributors I know having been saying mid-2023 before normality returns and encouraging placement of big forward orders - only to have the factories refuse to acknowledge orders. Another mentioned a surprisingly well-known company buying all the dev boards they could just for a single IC.  Connector companies are running out of PA66 for moldings. etc....

My guess is it will resolve itself far far sooner than we think, probably helped by the next recession/depression.

[Bicurico]

Some 10 years ago a friend and I tried to develop a PC based satellite receiver. It used the fairly new Intel Atom based Micro ATX form-factor.

The idea was to build a custom Linux distribution based on VDR with all the bells and whistles. We got all parts and components like LCD screen for the frontend, with remote controller, etc. The only part missing was the case. The prototype used a small PC case, but we were going to develop our own case in a stereo/receiver format. My friend was doing the commercial part and had already buyers lined up.

This was at this point a bit more than a simple hobby project and we wanted to compete with Reelbox satellite receivers and, of course, with Dream Multimedia (DMM).

What I learned:

Once I finished building the PC/receiver from all the parts and got Linux/VDR to function properly with support for the satellite card, LCD display and remote, Asus announced that the motherboard I had chosen was being replaced with a new model using a different chipset. This meant reconfiguring the whole Linux distribution.

Then the satellite cards were no longer sold and a replacement had to be found.

Finally, the manufacturer of the LCD and remote stopped production and an alternative had to be found.

This went on and on!

Finally, quotations for PC/receiver cases up to 1.000 or even 10.000 units were simply too expensive to build a competitive product.

So we dropped this and for my small initial investment, I got one working prototype. Better than nothing. Plus I learned:

For small projects like this, you either buy all the required components upfront and invest all your and more or you will suffer from constant lack of supply in components.

Also, it is very difficult to compete with established brands that sell 10x as much as your target: you won't be able to manufacture at the same price like them.

Conclusion:

You either are working on something disruptive and have money to invest in this business or you are doing custom products at high premium price.

While it was never so easy to have a one man product development workshop in the garage with pick and place machines, CNC mills, CAD/CAM/CAE software, additive manufacturing machines, etc., the competition is nowadays far more agressive, agile and cost efficient. This makes the one-man-show as difficult as it has always been, despite all the technology.

Just my opinion, though...

Regards,
Vitor

[Bassman59]

I'd expect that industry to boom soon, people have 1.5year of build up hunger for concerts

You'd think so, but I'm not so sure it's the case in practice.

There are several pieces to this puzzle, but for starters, consider:

Much of the labor force has had to move on to other jobs and careers. Why? Because crew who worked as 1099 contractors (that is, for our non-US readers, independent contractors, not salaried employees) don't get unemployment payments, so when the industry shut down overnight in spring 2020, there were millions of people suddenly without work with no prospects of income. How many of them will return to the tour industry is a good question. I know a dozen people who lived on tour that are now working career-type jobs with salaries, benefits and security, and I don't know if any of them will give that up to get back onto a tour bus for two months.

Next are the logistics. Everyone now needs tour buses, trucking, audio and lighting systems, and of course venues. Too many acts want access to those finite resources and enough of those resources were sold off because demand vanished. Tours even for large club/small-theater acts are being booked for end of 2022 into 2023 now because 2021 is booked solid. The only good thing to come from this clamoring for venues is that cities that were not primary (New York, LA, SF, Boston, Austin) or secondary (Phoenix, Denver) touring markets are now getting shows that would have bypassed them. I know so many tours that bypassed Tucson to play Phoenix, and now they're playing Tucson because we have the venues. Any small city a hundred miles from a major city is now getting booked, and I think that's great.

Here in the UK the cinemas reopened a few weeks ago and my local multiplex had its first showing of a repeatedly delayed Hollywood blockbuster. You'd think there would have been pent up demand, but I went along on the first day and there were no more than about 20 people in a theatre with more than 10 times that capacity. It was a pretty surreal experience.

We went to see the new Marvel film, and it was at the local megaplex with two dozen screens, and all but two were showing that one film. There were only about a dozen people in the theater at the showing we attended.

We also went to see the "Summer Of Soul" film (highly recommended!) at the local indie theater and that was about half-full.

The concerts I know of aren't selling out either. There's still tickets available for a festival I'm going to in September which should have taken place early last year and has been deferred twice now.

I have no idea what to expect for my shows booked in November. One is at the nice big (800-capacity) venue in Jersey City which we've sold out twice in the past. it'll be interesting.

[Red Squirrel]

I've been busy with non electronic projects around the house and I'm about to get even busier as I am in the process of buying a 40 acre plot of land to eventually build an off grid homestead.

I do want to get more into electronics though and I have lot of components I bought way before that I barely touched so I'm good as far as components go... sort off.  It's one thing to buy stuff in case I'll need it later, but guaranteed if I want to start a specific project there will be things I'll need anyway.

Given the state of things I think I would just take a totally different approach to electronics.  Learn more analog stuff, vacuum tubes, relays etc.  Basically need to go low tech.  Those are things that are somewhat realistic to make yourself.  That rules out microcontroller type stuff though unless you want a PIC or Atmel the size of a house. 
 

[GlennSprigg]

Old discontinued projects!!!
Even Aliens make us laugh...

[RJSV]

You can ( still) 3-D print...OR can you?
What about 3-D print supplies ?
And, (knocking on wood), how possible is it, to DIY make your own plastic recycle, line, onto a reel.
Home produced recycled line, plenty of work out there, if you make / design mechanical components.
OR, wrong idea ?

[bson]

Because crew who worked as 1099 contractors (that is, for our non-US readers, independent contractors, not salaried employees) don't get unemployment payments, so when the industry shut down overnight in spring 2020, there were millions of people suddenly without work with no prospects of income.

Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) covered independent contractors, business owners, and others who didn't qualify for their regular state programs.  From March 2020 (retroactive to January 2020) until it expired recently in September, and would still have been in effect when you wrote the above.  In addition they also qualified for rent assistance, and weren't evictable even if unable to pay their mortgage or rent during the pandemic.

[jonovid]

go figure it out.  discern what time it is.  1914 - 1938 - 2021
know the seasons. changes in the civilization.

[RJSV]

   Actually, drone delivered LATTE COFFEES are probably at the top, of any consumer business you might start, as an alternative to electronics...
   Just as many other replies, here, I express frustration and look elsewhere, but end up sticking with Electronics as a first choice, trying to make my (rent).
   In 1995, after industry lay-offs, I determined to look elsewhere... But by 1999 I was back at it, doing my best to garner resources and focus (on business documentation). Simultaneous, though, I did develop some non-tech industry usefulness: I did security monitoring (retail), private security (house and pet sitting), even Pet Walking. Non of these informal gigs involved any certification / licenses.
   I've even taken to heart, a Clint Eastwood movie, when he was DOWN, I mean really down, he used that time, practice, practice practice. What I mean is, he recovered from injuries, while getting his skills upgraded, privately. THEN, as troubles eased, he was back: stronger than ever, and with some new tricks.
(Course that was cowboy stuff, "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly", or one of the other 'Spagetti Westerns'.
   I do remember in some past social disasters, the government went after those that illegally gouged supplys, (food) in wake of disaster. They 'shoot looters' used to be a thing said...
   But this is getting too wordy. I did want to say, I could hire 3 'Ricks' right now, to build / research stuff. Everything from frivolous consumer products (pocket shower) to nano-tech and even Bio-tech musings...
I just can't pay.

[bsfeechannel]

Old discontinued projects!!!
Even Aliens make us laugh...

It is becoming increasingly difficult to find vintage components.

[ajb]

Anyone looking for a career change right now?

The only other thing I can do for income is front-of-house mixing for rock bands.

Talk about an industry that was killed dead.

(I have a couple of shows scheduled for November. Maybe we'll actually do them.)

I'd expect that industry to boom soon, people have 1.5year of build up hunger for concerts

I'd be "cautious" about the "soon" here.

Yeah, the live event industry is kind of teetering right now.  There is definitely pent up demand for events on the attendee side, and pent up demand for the revenue on the artist/promoter/venue side, but no one wants to schedule a big festival or tour just to have it cancelled because of another surge--or end up being a superspreader event.  Plus the ongoing risk is still significant, a crew member touring with KISS recently died from COVID, supposedly in part due to lax safety measures and (allegedly) fake vaccine cards.  That's starting to slowly get better, but the persistent hesitancy of so many people to get vaccinated, and the attendant risk of new and potentially more dangerous variants developing among the unvaccinated is really holding the recovery back. 

The labor issue as Bassman59 was describing is also very real.   I was talking with someone who does a lot of work at a big arena a few months ago, who pointed at the posters for some upcoming events on the side of the building.  The very first show after a year and a half of shutdown was Guns N Roses, with some other equally big act the very next day.  These are big shows that will gross millions of dollars a night, with multiple truckloads of equipment each and tens of tons of that getting rigged overhead, and the second one will start loading in as soon as (if not a bit before) the last one finishes loading out.  He told me "I do NOT want to be on that call.  So many good people have left the industry, and anyone who hasn't is a year and a half out of practice.  I might get sent up to high rigging just because there aren't enough real riggers left and I do not belong there. It's going to be dangerous."

It'll get better eventually for sure.  It's just impossible to say when that'll happen at this point.